Top 5 Breakdown
- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – £2,734,960 – £42,392,249
Dropping 39.1% in its fourth weekend; the first film since Star Wars The Force Awakens to hold on to #1 for four weeks similar to both Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 with Rogue One opening this weekend won’t be able to match Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone which held #1 for five weeks in 2001.
Has become the fifth biggest film of 2016 moving ahead of Deadpool and will this week move ahead of Finding Dory to become the third biggest film of 2016 it should also overtake The Jungle Book and Bridget Jones’s Diary but likely to be beaten by Rogue One which is expected to do £80m+.
After four weeks, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them while it is holding similar to Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 but will likely have a 60%+ drop in its fifth weekend against arrival of Rogue One will likely end still with a box office close to Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire £48.7m. As after 4 weeks on release Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them has taken about 85% of its final box office.
| 3 WE | 3WE T | drop | 4WE | 4WET | Drop | 5 WE | 5WET | drop | ||
| HP and the Goblet of Fire | 18 Nov 2005 | £4.82m | £37m | 48% | £2.14 | £40.5 | 56% | £1.01 | £42.3 | 52% |
| HP and the Philosopher’s Stone | 16 Nov 2001 | £3.34m | £43.33m | 65.5% | £66.1m | -2.3% |
| HP and the Chamber of Secrets | 15 Nov 2002 | £2.67m | £41.04m | 74.8% | £54.8m | +3.01% |
| HP and the Prisoner of Azkaban | 31 May 2004 | £2.02m | £39.69m | 86.1% | £46.1m | +6.6% |
| HP and the Goblet of Fire | 18 Nov 2005 | £2.14m | £40.54m | 83.2% | £48.7m | +4.3% |
| HP and the Order of the Phoenix | 12 July 2007 | £1.47m | £41.57m | 71.6% | £58m | +1.7% |
| HP and the Half-Blood Prince | 17 July 2009 | £1.34m | £44.37m | 87.5% | £50.7m | -4.6% |
| HP and the Deathly Hallows P1 | 19 Nov 2010 | £1.90m | £42.57m | 81.5% | £52.2m | -0.6% |
| HP and the Deathly Hallows P2 | 15 July 2011 | £2.81m | £62.37m | 85.3% | £73.1m | -32.1% |
Fantastic Beasts is ahead of the box office for most of the Harry Potter films but -32% for Deathly Hallows Part 2 shows how far off it really is to other films. This can be seen better-comparing admissions after 4 weeks with their average ticket price of their years.
| HP and the Philosopher’s Stone | 16 Nov 2001 | £43.33 | 10,458,937 | £4.14 | £66.1m | 15,966,183 |
| HP and the Chamber of Secrets | 15 Nov 2002 | £41.04 | 9,566,434 | £4.29 | £54.8m | 12,773,893 |
| HP and the Prisoner of Azkaban | 31 May 2004 | £39.69 | 8,839,543 | £4.49 | £46.1m | 10,267,261 |
| HP and the Goblet of Fire | 18 Nov 2005 | £40.54 | 8,607,219 | £4.71 | £48.7m | 10,339,703 |
| HP and the Order of the Phoenix | 12 July 2007 | £41.57 | 8,231,684 | £5.05 | £58m | 11,485,148 |
| HP and the Half-Blood Prince | 15 July 2009 | £44.37 | 8,156,250 | £5.44 | £50.7m | 9,319,853 |
| HP and the Deathly Hallows P1 | 19 Nov 2010 | £42.57 | 7,154,622 | £5.95 | £52.2m | 8,773,109 |
| HP and the Deathly Hallows P2 | 15 July 2011 | £62.37 | 10,292,080 | £6.06 | £73.1m | 12,062,707 |
| Fantastic Beasts and. | 18 Nov 2016 | £42.31 | 5,641,334 | £7.50 | 29.99m | n/a |
HP and the Philosopher’s Stone held #1 for 5 weeks in 2001 replaced by The Lord of the Rings opening with £11.05m with HP taking £1.6m and £50.04m.
HP and the Chamber of Secrets held #1 for only 1 week in 2002 replaced by Die Another Day opening with £9.12m with HP taking £7.31m and £30.04m.
HP and the Prisoner of Azkaban held #1 for 4 weeks in 2004 replaced by Shrek 2 opening with £16.22m with HP taking £1.21m and £41.94m.
HP and the Goblet of Fire held #1 for 3 weeks replaced by The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe opening with £8.88m with HP taking £2.14m and £40.54m.
HP and the Order of the Phoenix held #1 for 2 weeks replaced by The Simpsons and Transformers opening with £13.62m and £8.71m with HP taking £2.87m and £37.87m.
HP and the Half-Blood Prince held #1 for 3 weeks replaced by The Ugly Truth and G.I Joe with £1.97m and £1.70m with HP taking £1.34m and £44.37m.
HP and the Deathly Hallows P1 held #1 for 3 weeks replaced by Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader opening with £2.46m with HP taking £1.90m and £42.57m.
HP and the Deathly Hallows P2 held #1 for 4 weeks replaced by Rise of the Planet of the Apes and The Smurfs opening with £5.83m and 33.77m with HP taking £1.73m and £66.51m
- Moana – £1,911,784 – £4,773,161
After a lower than expected opening weekend was always expected to hold well in its second weekend having a similar drop to Frozen three years ago, of 13.6% compared with only 11% for Frozen but its second weekend box office was 55% less than Frozen £1.9m Vs £4.21m and its total is 54% less than Frozen £4.76m Vs £10.29m.
Moana held far stronger than The Good Dinosaur last year which dropped 41.7% in its second weekend taking £1.69m but had taken more £5.12m; but Moana is still likely to hold far stronger as while are many films opening over the Christmas period Moana is the only film targeting young children last year Snoopy and Charlie Brown opened Christmas week while Sing opens in the US it’s surprisingly delayed till January 27th in the UK. It’s especially surprising as the two-week Christmas holidays are the most lucrative weeks at the box office and would be room for two family films; Disney have held back their UK release of next animated film Coco by a week to give Paddington 2 room after the first film took over £38m at the box office in 2014.
As being the only animated film released for Christmas despite Moana is still likely to have a lucrative Christmas as even Paddington opened with £5.11m same weekend in 2014 dropped 26% in its second weekend and 24% in its third weekend then doubled its box office adding £15.1m over the two lucrative weeks of Christmas holidays; while Frozen added £18.55m over the same period in 2013.
Moana is still expected to have a lucrative Christmas but unlikely to get close to either Zootropolis or Trolls was expected to do is surprising especially given the performance of the majority of animated films in 2016 with the exception of Ice Age: Collusion Course and Kubo And The Two Strings
Comparing Moana second weekend with most other animated films it’s difficult as all apart from The Angry Birds Movie openings were inflated by weekend previews. As well as many of their second weekends were part of school holidays inflating their box office again the only one that didn’t be The Angry Birds Movie but played to a much younger audience than Moana. What it does show is while weekend previews might artificially inflate film’s opening it doesn’t change its final box office just shortens its release.
| Kung Fu Panda 3 | 11th Mar 2016 | £4.7m | £1.5m | £3.2m | -63.4% |
| Zootropolis | 25th Mar 2016 | £5.3m | £1.7m | £3.6m | -48.4% |
| The Angry Birds Movie | 13th May 2016 | £2.2m | n/a | n/a | -5.1% |
| The Secret Life of Pets | 24th Jun 2016 | £9.5m | £3.6m | £5.9m | -50.8% |
| Ice Age: Collusion Course | 15th Jul 2016 | £3.7m | £2.3m | £1.4m | -60.08% |
| Storks | 14th Oct 2016 | £2.2m | £972,000 | £1.3m | -70.5% |
| Trolls | 21st Oct 2016 | £5.4m | £2.4m | £3.01m | -70.3% |
| Zootropolis | 25 Mar 2016 | £5.30m | x4.45 | 22.4% | £2.73m | £12.59m | £23.61m |
| Big Hero 6 | 30 Jan 2015 | £4.29m | x4.5 | 22.1% | £2.54m | £7.47m | £19.34m |
| Frozen | 6 Dec 2013 | £4.70m | x8.32 | 12.0% | £4.21m | £10.29m | £39.14m |
| Wreck-It Ralph | 8 Feb 2013 | £4.52m | x4.78 | 20.9% | £3.43m | £10.51m | £21.61m |
| Winnie the Pooh | 15 Apr 2011 | £159,369 | x3.16 | 31.6% | £74,507 | £368,498 | £504,076 |
| Tangled | 28 Jan 2011 | £5.10m | x3.91 | 25.5% | £4.56m | £10.74m | £19.97m |
| The Princess and the Frog | 5 Feb 2010 | £2.23m | x4.92 | 20.2% | £1.50m | £4.19m | £10.99m |
| Bolt | 13 Feb 2009 | £5.45m | x3.25 | 30.7% | £3.0m | £13.65m | £17.74m |
| Meet the Robinsons | 30 Mar 2007 | £895,955 | x4.9 | 20.4% | £421,608 | £2.14m | £4.39m |
| Chicken Little | 10 Feb 2006 | £3.17m | x4.19 | 23.8% | £2.18m | £8.36m | £13.29m |
| Home on the Range | 6 Aug 2004 | £198,226 | x7.2 | 13.8% | £171,277 | £770,008 | £1.43m |
| Brother Bear | 5 Dec 2003 | £887,321 | x6.08 | 16.4% | £728,663 | £1.83m | £5.40m |
| Treasure Planet | 14 Feb 2003 | £888,084 | x7.28 | 13.7% | £1.81m | £3.48m | £6.47m |
| Lilo & Stitch | 4 Oct 2002 | £1.51m | x8.53 | 11.7% | £1.87m | £3.74m | £12.89m |
Have been many comparisons between Moana and Frozen opening 3 years after Disney’s biggest ever original animated film as both feature strong female and it’s Disney’s first human-based animated film since Frozen which took £39.14m in the UK in 201, $400.7m in the US and $1.27 billion worldwide currently the ninth biggest film ever. But the song from Moana How Far I’ll Go by Alessia Cara (currently viewed 8.82 million times on YouTube) won’t match the success of Let It Go from Frozen by Idina Menzel three years ago, (currently been viewed 558.33 million times)
- Sully: Miracle on the Hudson – £1,222,683 – £4,308,008
Down 31.5% in its second weekend holding like last year’s Bridge of Spies last year which took £1.08m and £3.88m went on to take £7.79m; its second weekend drop was also like Tom Hanks recent crowd-pleasing Saving Mr Banks dropping taking £547,881 down 31% in December 2013 and Captain Phillips taking £2.5m down 19% in October 2013.
Sully is a great follow up movie to last year’s Bridge of Spies for Tom Hanks as in both he is a hero in all senses of the word but is modest about his actions and doesn’t feel he deserves any credit for his actions which saved many compared with the arrogant comic-book movie “heroes” this year that is eager for all the glory.
If Sully can hold onto many of its screens over the coming weeks should perform similarly as while there are many films targeting family audiences for older audiences, there are limited options until December 26th with Collateral Beauty and January 1st with A Monster Calls and Silence directed by Martin Scorsese has received very mixed reviews.
Sully has become Clint Eastwood’s sixth biggest film in the UK as director and will shortly overtake 2008’s Invictus £4.5m, 1992’s Unforgiven £4.68m, and 2008’s Changeling £4.7m. Depending on how it holds in the coming weeks could overtake 2004’s Million Dollar Baby £5.15m and his highest grossing directed film American Sniper which took £13.62m.
Sully was snubbed at the Golden Globes on Monday but was expected as with only room in each category for five films will always be many deserving films that miss out on awards. After many thought, Clint Eastwood’s last film American Sniper was unjustifiably nominated for multiple Oscar nominations in 2015; as like Sully American Sniper took liberties with its plotline.
Clint Eastwood has yet to confirm the next film he will direct Warner Bros acquired rights to memoir Impossible Odds about kidnapped American aid worker Jessica Buchanan with the possibility he would direct. For many years, Clint Eastwood was attached to A Star is Born remake which Bradley Cooper will now direct and star with Lady Gaga which is due for release in September 2018. Tom Hanks next stars in The Circle opposite Emma Watson in April 2017 and is back as Woody in Toy Story 4 in 2019.
- Office Christmas Party – £1,198,176 – NE
Boosted by two days of previews adding £288,333 to its weekend box office of £901,907 would have seen it still open in fourth with just its weekend box office.
The opening was ahead of last year The Night Before opened £272,000 and Sisters with £1.21m inflated with 6 days of previews and similar themed Unfinished Business opened in March 2016 with £391,844.
| Get Hard | March 2015 | £1.43m | £5.32m |
| Horrible Bosses 2 | Nov 2014 | £1.25m | £3.6m |
| We’re the Millers | Aug 2013 | £1.5m | £8.07m |
| Identity Thief | March 2013 | £1.31m | £4.71m |
| Project X | March 2012 | £561,655 | £2.1m |
| Horrible Bosses | July 2011 | £2.1m | £10m |
The directors previous films The Switch (also starring Jennifer Aniston and Jason Bateman) opened with £66,018 in September 2010 and Blades of Glory opened with £1.02m in April 2007.
From the writers of Jon Lucas, The Hangover Part 1 opened June 2009 with £3,193,806, The Change-Up September 2011 £727,497, 21 and Over opened May 2013 £772,235 and Bad Moms opened with £1.47m in September 2016.
Office Christmas Party is one of many recent gross-out comedies that feels the need to go out gross previous films; 30 years ago, films like Bachelor Party and 17 years ago, with American Pie they just do be able to have the gross-out but were also able to be charming and sweet but now it’s just crude and extreme reminding me of 2001’s Freddy Got Fingered which must be one of the worst films ever made. I remember showing it in 20th Century Fox Preview Theatre in 2001 and the reaction was of complete shock and horror as they walked out after what they had just experienced.
- Allied – £363,767 – £3,634,915
Down 45.8% in its third weekend while beating Robert Zemeckis last film The Walk won’t get close to matching Robert Zemeckis 2013 film Flight which took £472,983 in its third weekend taking £4.18m going on to take £4.69m.
Brad Pitt’s last role was in the ensemble The Big Short took £556,988 in its third weekend taking £4.1m going on to take £5.49m.
One positive for Allied is it will soon overtake the final box office of Brad Pitt’s Spy Game which opened the week after Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone in 2001 but with average ticket prices £4.14m in 2001 compared with £7.50 in 2016 over 80% more (100%+) admissions are less than half.
Other box office news
Also, Opened
The Birth of a Nation – 20th Century Fox – £135,162 from 196 screens – In January received its premiere at Sundance Film Festival in the middle of the Oscars So White controversy generating huge buzz from its screening with Fox Searchlight paying a record $17.5m for world rights.
Searchlight was hoping to follow up with their recent Oscar-winning success of 12 Years a Slave. But in the weeks after premiering the hype fading away and people saw the film differently which is the case with so many films these days critical and studio executives get caught up in the hype watching films I that kind of environment. It is, of course, better to see films with an audience than cynical executives but in the case with The Birth of a Nation put Fox Searchlight into a bidding war as it seen to be the film for Hollywood to immediately dismiss the claims that they are racist.
But the rape plot within the film brought to light again in August director Nate Parker’s rape allegations which he was acquitted in 2001 which then overshadowed its premiere at Toronto and its release in the US. But there are some double standards as while Roman Polanski who was convicted in 1977 of raping a 13-year-old girl fled to France before he could be sentenced but has still been able to make many films since winning Best Director Oscar in 2003 for The Pianist; Poland’s Supreme Court recently rejected a US government request to have Oscar-winning filmmaker Roman Polanski extradited to the U.S.
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This weekend’s top 10 box office took £8,465,385; down 5.3% from last weekend £8,942,870;
Weekend admissions 1,027,257 down 27.1% from last weekend 1,408,715
The weekend was down 27.1% from same weekend last year (£9,062,765) By The Sea £24,770 and Grandma £36,000 opened.
Same weekend opening in 2014: The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies £9,728,584 and Tinkerbell the Legend of the Fairy’s £394,871.
Next weekend in 2015: Star Wars: The Force Awakens £33,903,560, Sisters £1,214,635 opened.
A recent survey said average ticket price was £8.24 (the same cost as 13 pints of cider) up from Cinema Exhibitors Association average ticket price of £7.21 for 2015 a 7.3% increase from 2014.
Complete UK Box office top 10 – December 9th – 11th 2016 
US Box Office
- Disney – Moana – drops 34.4% – $18.5m – $144.7m; currently 12% down from Frozen but will face tough competition on December 21st with Sing.
- Paramount- Office Christmas Party – opens $16.8m; received B CinemaScore; the opening was ahead of 2014’s Horrible Bosses 2 $15.4m but ahead of last year’s Sisters opened with $13.9m but was expected to open ahead of Moana’s third weekend box office. With Why Him? opening in two weeks unlikely to last longer than theChristmas Party season in the top 10.
- Warner Bros – Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – drops 42.5% -$10.4m – $198.9m; after four weeks, Fantastic Beasts is between 41.9%-5.7% less than previous Harry Potter films; after 4 weeks, Fantastic Beasts has likely taken 85%+ of its final box office and will likely add $30m+ should see it just top Doctor Strange.
| Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone | $239.6m | 75.4% | -16.8% | $317.5m |
| Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets | $213.9m | 81.6% | -6.8% | $261.9m |
| Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban | $211.5m | 84.7% | -5.7% | $249.5m |
| Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire | $244.1m | 84.1% | -18.3% | $290.1m |
| Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix | $261.1m | 89.3% | -23.6% | $292.1m |
| Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince | $273.8m | 90.6% | -27.2% | $301.9m |
| Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 | $257.6m | 87.2% | -22.6% | $295.3m |
| Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 | $343.1m | 90.1% | -41.9% | $381.1m |
- Paramount Pictures – Arrival – drops 23.1% – $5.5m – $81.4m; Arrival was surprisingly missing with major Golden Globe nominations receiving Best Actoress for Amy Adams and Best Score which was similar to Hidden Figures boh were expected to get many more nominations but this s why award ceremonies are meaningless as its just the opinion of a couple thousand people rather than millions who pay to watch these films.
- Disney – Doctor Strange – drops 32.1% – $4.5m – $222.2m; On Monday, will move ahead of Big Hero 6 to become the 23rd biggest comic book movie in the US; after 6 weeks of release has taken about 95% of final box office likely to add about $10m more. When many will say Doctor Strange is Marvel’s biggest original comic-book movie to date and Doctor Strange was unknown to non-fans but now after 14 Marvel movies they cannot use this excuse as the audience for one Marvel film should be similar to all others and if Captain America: Civil War could take $408m, Batman Vs Superman: Dawn of Justice $330.3m and Suicide Squad $325.1m Doctor Strange with positive reviews and little competition should have got close to those three other comic-book movies rather than nearer to X-Men: Apocalypse $155.4m.
- Paramount – Allied – drops 43.7% – $3.9m – $35.6m;
- Focus – Nocturnal Animals – up 351.5% – $3.1m – $6.2m; adding 1,135 screens – $6.18m
- Roadshow Attractions – Manchester by the Sea – up 37.9% – $3.1m – $8.3m; adding 210 screens adding 1,200 screens this weekend after several strong weeks on limited release how will it perform opening wide.
- 20th Century Fox – Trolls – drops 35.6% – $3m – $145.4m; has overtaken Kung Fu Panda 3 to become 20th Century Fox’s biggest animated film of the year.
- Lionsgate – Hacksaw Ridge – drops 31.5% – $2.2m – $60.8m; recieved a suprising Best Film and Best Director nomination this week at the Golden Globes.
On limited release expansion
EuropaCorp – Miss Sloane – up 4,013% – $1.8m – adding 1,644 screens – $1.98m; after receiving positive reviews is another film that suffered from expanding too quickly (but with so many other films targeting similar audience it had limited option) climbed 30 places in the chart from last weekend up to 11.
After two decent weeks on limited release opening on 3 screens adding one in its second weekend adding 1,644 screens in its third was 1,000+ too many so many films perform well on a platform but then once they expand quickly lose their fizz quickly.
Was reported to of had the 75th worst opening weekend since 1982 which is not really true having been opened on a limited release for two weeks. The film has earned Jessica Chastain a Golden Globe Best Actress nomination but haing expanded far too quickly will audiences get to see it.
Steve Jobs last year had an incredible debut taking $521,522 from only 4 screens added 60 screens in its second weekend taking $1.51m but then added 2,433 screens in its third weekend taking $7.1m dropping 62% and 70% in its following weekends.
Hell or High Water this year was similar after rave reviews strong launch on 32 screens taking $621,329 added 440 screens week 2 $2.69m but then added 437 screens in week 3 and 394 in week 4 diluting its box office what originally seemed to be a film that had legs expanded far too quickly only getting into the top 10 for 2 weeks and only taking $27m;
Moonlight opened in October on 4 screens opening very strongly with $402,075 adding 32, 47 and 93 screens over the following three weeks holding well but then added 474 screens in week 5 but only added 17.7% to its box office it has since lost 200 screens but with Golden Globe nominations this week will likely expand again.
Queen of Katwe in October opened strongly on 52 screens $304,933) which was still probably too many screens to open on) adding 1,190 screens in its second weekend failing to connect with its audience. There are so many examples of films that have performed strongly on platform but don’t on expansion normally due to being done far too quickly but distributors are in a no win position with so many films being released they need to keep momentum of their films and while a slow platform might be best are concerned that with several more films opening in the weeks after its release might get overshadowed.
So while everything currently looks awesome for La La Land they still need to handle its expansion carefully not to go too wide too quickly.
A24 – Moonlight – drops 30.3% – $589,627 – dropping 125 screens – total 10.8m
Focus – Loving – down 35.7% – $623,380 – adding 126 screens – total $6.56m
Fox Searchlight – Jackie – up 77.6% – $495,000 from 26 screens adding 21 – total $859,825
Weinstein – Lion – up 47.5% – $171,909 – adding 8 screens – $494,099
Opening on limited release
Lionsgate – La La Land – opens $855,000 from 5 screens; opening in fifteenth having the best limited opening release of the year 75% more than the previous high of Moonlight and triple of Manchester By the Sea and the best per theatre average ever for a live-action awards season film behind only Wes Anderson’s The Grand Budapest Hotel in 2014.
But so many films have performed strongly recently on limited release but underwhelmed when they expanded as they often have expanded far too quickly. La La Land adds 200+ screens this weekend days after receiving eight Golden Globe nominations including Best Film Musical or Comedy, Best Screenplay and Best Actor for Ryan Gosling and Best Actor for Emma Stone which should see it having a very strong second weekend.
But the key for La La Land will be when it expands beyond 600 screens (as films including Hell Or High Water, Loving, Moonlight, Denial and Queen of Katwe all performed strongly on limited release but expanded far too quickly) and facing competition from many other films positioning themselves for awards including Fences, A Monster Calls, Silence (which despite mixed reviews will still likely receive nominations just because it’s directed by Martin Scorsese), Patriots Day, 20th Century Woman, Hidden Figures and Live By Night
Main opening Friday weekend predictions:
Opening UK
- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story – Disney
The first of many planned Star Wars Anthology films starring Felicity Jones, Diego Luna, Ben Mendelsohn, Donnie Yen, Riz Ahmed, Mads Mikkelsen, Alan Tudyk, Jiang Wen, and Forest Whitaker and directed by Gareth Edwards.
After the massive success of Star Wars: The Force Awakens last December despite taking $528m globally in its opening weekend failed to overtake 1997’s Titanic $2.18n and 2009’s Avatar $2.78bn taking $2.06bn.
One thing missing off Rogue One’s marketing is the word prequel as Disney are probably trying to distance themselves from the prequels The Phantom Menace, Attack of the Clones and Revenge of the Sith released between 1999 and 2005. But Rogue One is as much a prequel as they are as the story leads up to the first scene of Star Wars: A New Hope.
Audiences were blown away by the film only to admit a few months later it was little more than a fan remake of A New Hope probably why fans loved it so much as when studios remix the rights films like Star Wars and Jurassic Park audiences are warmly accept them but then with so many other reboots like Ghostbusters and Pointbreak they aren’t the big question is after fans went crazy about Jumanji remake will Dwayne Johnson and Kevin art ease that pain when it opens next summer.
In 2012 Disney announced plans for the third series of Star Wars films and a series of spin-off films focusing on characters of the film franchise Rogue One was the first to be announced with Han Solo and others soon after but sadly Jar Jar Binks has yet to be officially announced.
These spin-off films will be prequels to events that feature in the Star Wars film series. Rogue One telling how the rebel spies stole the plans for the Death Star which straight away will be tonally darker than The Force Awakens like Revenge of the Sith but there is the problem as that is the tone Star Wars fans would want the film to be but Disney after spending $4.05bn for Lucasfilm wants Star Wars films and the merchandise to be family friendly.
It was not a surprise then when there was news of reshoots in June as the filmmaker had made the Star Wars film he wanted but Disney were reportedly unhappy with the tone of the film. When Disney announced plans for Star Wars films were concerns the films would be Disneyfied but as with Marvel, The Force Awakens didn’t have their Disney logo on the front of the film. In June when these rumors started about reshoots there were crazy stories about how much of the film was being reshot with the director being replaced all this speculation. Almost all films have re-shot nowadays but the fact it was Rogue One made it a far bigger story.
But the big question after all of that is how will it do? Star Wars The Force Awakens teaser was viewed 88 million times in its first 24 hours with its trailer 112 million times in its first 24 hours (that record was broken in September with Fifty Shades Darker receiving 114 million views in its first 24 hours). In comparison Rogue One teaser 42m and trailer 21m views on YouTube which close to Deadpool trailer views.
While The Force Awaken was new but old was easily accessible to fans but also audiences new to the Star Wars film series but while Rogue One and other spin-off films fans will love they are probably a bit too geeky for many non-fans who just enjoyed the spectacle of the film.
Star Wars The Force Awakens opened last December with £33.9m a few weeks after Spectre opened with £41.2m for a 7-day opening weekend while the record books will show Spectre as the biggest ever opening weekend it did it with 7 days while The Force Awakens took £33.9m in 4 days.
It is hard to compare Rogue One openings with previous biggest openers last year’s The Force Awakens took £33.9m but is much more accessible as were the prequels Rogue One is much more a fan movie which could alienate some of the fans The Force Awakens created. While it has had the hype of The Force Awakens it’s been a little subdued seem by the critical reception which has been much more mixed that for The Force Awakens maybe in hindsight thy now realise it was the memberries talking.
The Force Awakens took £9.6m from its opening day which included £2.4m from midnight screenings beating Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallow Part 2 £9.48m.
The Force Awakens was 3.53x opening day (£9.6m)
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them opened with £4.3m taking £15.33m for 3-day weekend taking 3.56x opening
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallow Part 2 was 2.5x opening (£9.48m) £23.75m
Suicide Squad opening was only 2.38x opening day £4.7m due to poor reviews and bad word of mouth as Batman Vs Superman was 2.29x £6.37m opening day.
Rogue One is likely to have a similar big £8m+ opening day as all the fan will be desperate to see it on its opening day to avoid spoilers despite its opening in 11 countries on Wednesday (not opening in the UK on Wednesday due to the 2for1 MeerkatMovies promotion?)
Last year two days before The Force Awakens opened in the UK it was announced over 1 million tickets had been sold. Advance booking for The Force Awakens opened a month earlier than Rogue One but while there were reports Fandango website crashed there has been no news of how advance ticket sales for Rogue One are doing in comparison to The Force Awakens. Odeon had sold over 500,000 advance tickets while Vue 355,000 tickets.
While of course BFI IMAX 11 of its 21 screenings over the weekend are sold out are still many available at the Odeon and Cineworld Leicester Square cinemas for its opening night shows.
Like Fantastic Beasts which opened in November which was Harry Potter but not Potter, Rogue One is Star Wars but not the Star Wars we have known which we have only before on TV in Star Wars: The Clone Wars and Star Wars: Rebels. The world Fantastic Beasts and Star Wars is in is the same but everything else is different which makes them hard films to judge how audiences will respond to them as a massive part which made both Harry Potter and Star Wars film series is the characters in these prequels we are starting again. With the Star Wars prequels, there were characters from the original film trilogy to guide us alongside the new characters but Rogue One it’s a whole new world why probably Darth Vader was added.
For non-Star Wars fans, is still confusion about when Rogue One is set so Disney released a featurette a few weeks ago, to try to show how the film connects to the other films
In an interview in September Riz Ahmed described Rogue One as ‘grittier’ than previous films apart from Revenge of the Sith when Anakin kills younglings the Star Wars films have been light in tone but as with Revenge of the Sith the events that feature within Rogue One are darker and it’s no spoiler to think most of the people die in Rogue One with the exception of Darth Vader; in Return of the Jedi Mon Mothma said “Many Bothans died to bring us this information.” talking about the plans for Death Star 2 while in A New Hope Princess Leia’s spaceship intercepts transmissions of the Death Star plans but is no other information on where they came from.
If Rogue One opens like Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them which had a 35% smaller opening than Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 in July 2011 will be looking at a £21.77m opening (like last year’s Avengers: Age of Ultron opened with £17.99m in 4 days and Jurassic World £19.28m in 3 days ) having an extra day to Fantastic Beasts; Fantastic Beasts opened with £4.3m on Friday while The Force Awakens took £9.6m from its opening day (Thursday) which included £2.4m from midnight screenings being the previous high of £9.48m for Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2. Fantastic Beasts opened far bigger in the UK compared to its UK opening £15.33m Vs $75m as did The Force Awakens
Building up to Star Wars Force Friday, September 30th Star Wars fans have released a series of videos about Star Wars Go Rogue
The elephant in the room is Passengers footage was screened at CinemaCon in April and CineEurope in June which audiences loved but Sony Pictures strangely didn’t release the trailer until September. As Passengers has been compared to Gravity while it might look like suicide to release another sci-fi film only days after but with Jennifer Lawrence and Chris Pratt in a female-friendly film could be far more accessible to audiences as Gravity.
Opening days after might seem as great alternative programming for female audiences but while Rogue One will be in all the main screens Passengers will be dumped into smaller screens as an exhibitor having the choice of a Star Wars film or an unknown what choice is there for them especially as while Jennifer Lawrence and Chris Pratt generate much media coverage they have yet had a success that is solely due to them having successes from inbuilt franchises The Hunger Games sold millions of books while Jurassic World followed three films that had taken almost $2 billion globally.
After Star Wars The Force Awakens had a big Leicester Square premiere was expected Rogue One would have similar in the UK especially as it was shot in the UK with British director Gareth Edwards and several cast British actors but while having a big Los Angeles premiere on December 10th will have a much lower key launch screening in London on December 13th.
The first reaction immediately after its world premiere last Saturday was very positive but when the embargo broke on Tuesday evening reviews were mixed where some gushing reviews but the majority were in the middle. This was expected as all through production Rogue One was described the Star Wars film for adults which sounds great for fans but means it’s not as accessible to non-fans as The Force Awakens was last year. Comparing the very positive first reactions of The Force Awakens which became not so positive after a few months it will be interesting to see how reactions are for Rogue One after a few weeks as it is likely to be much more front-loaded than The Force Awakens.
Opening predictions for Rogue One have been anything from $130m-200m but as the prequels apart from Attack of the Clones and The Force Awakens had their biggest openings of their years Rogue One should also too as the fan-base for all the Star Wars films is similar so as Captain America: Civil War, Batman Vs Superman: Dawn of Justice, Suicide Squad and Deadpool had four of the five biggest openings of the year Rogue One with the hype it has received and media attention and being far more accessible than comic-book movies should have the biggest opening of the year.
Opening US This weekend
- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story – Disney
First teaser was released April 7th 2016 as viewed close to 30 million times in its first 29 hours currently been viewed over 43 million times on YouTube
In June Rogue One featured within the Star Wars Celebrations Event in London where the first poster was revealed and a second teaser trailer was exclusively screened for the audience not available online (but pirated versions did get online). A second trailer was released in August and a third in October. As with Star Wars: The Force Awakens a further Chinese trailer was released in December revealing more unseen footage.
The publicity tour began in Mexico in November which included screening 28 minutes of footage of the film ahead of the press junket the footage was well received. Always question why screen footage so close to release when the completed film is available similar was done with many other films including Another Earth and Terminator Genisys.
Disney didn’t screen any footage to media before the press junket for Star Wars: The Force Awakens and that went well so surprising they screened footage for Rogue One as unlike The Force Awakens everyone knows what happened in Rogue One. Disney did show the completed film to George Lucas who enjoyed it more than The Force Awakens but Lucas saying he liked it meaningless just as James Cameron did with Terminator Genisys George Lucas isn’t going to say he didn’t.
Advance booking opened on November 28th in the US a week after the UK and 5 weeks later than The Force Awakens; within 10 minutes Fandango website crashed in the first 24 hours sold the second highest pre-sales behind The Force Awakens. But this doesn’t mean much as are the fanboys who had mentally booked their seats when Rogue One was announced two years ago, while The Force Awakens was accessible to new audiences Rogue One plays to the fans and will be harder for non-fans to be as excited like the Star Wars prequels there is no surprise we all know what happens at the end.
The big question is how will perform at the box office after last year’s The Force Awakens opened with a massive $248m the same weekend. Early tracking last month was predicting $130m+ opening. Last month’s Fantastic Beats and Where to Find Them was tracking to open with $75m and opened with $74m is like Rogue One being a film within the same universe but with mostly new characters and worlds opened with 56% less than Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 in the US if Rogue One was to perform similar would have a $109m-$124m opening which is like what most are predicting.
Expectations are for a global opening of between $280- $350m which would be about 40% less than The Force Awakens opened globally last December $528m. Fantastic Beasts opened with $219m globally in its opening weekend which would be about 40% less than The Force Awakens. Have been only 19 films opening with more than $300m worldwide in its opening weekend this year there have only been two Batman V Superman $422.5m and Captain America: Civil War $379.5m. The addition of Asian actors Donnie Yen and Jiang Wen will likely increase its performance in Thailand and Japan over last year’s The Force Awakens as in China where it opens in January.
| Total O | US OWE | Int OWE | T WW | % of O | ||
| Star Wars: The Force Awakens* | Disney | $529.0m | $248.0m | $281.0m | $2.068 | 25.5% |
| Jurassic World * | Universal | $524.9m | $208.8m | $316.1m | $1.670 | 31.4% |
| Harry Potter DH2 | Warner | $483.2m | $169.2m | $314.0m | $1,341 | 36.1% |
| Batman Vs Superman | Warner | $422.5m | $166.0m | $256.5m | $873.3 | 48.3% |
| Furious 7* | Universal | $397.7m | $147.2m | $250.5m | $1,518 | 26.1% |
| Harry Potter Half Blood Prince | Warner | $394.0m | $158.0m | $236.0m | $934.4 | 42.1% |
| Avengers* | Disney | $392.5m | $207.4m | $185.1m | $1,518 | 25.8% |
| Avengers: Age of Ultron* | Disney | $392.2m | $191.3m | $201.2m | $1,405 | 27.9% |
| Transformers: Dark of the Moon * | Para | $382.4m | $162.6m | $219.8m | $1,123 | 34.1% |
| Spider-Man 3 | Sony | $381.7m | $151.1m | $230.5m | $890.8 | 42.8% |
Showing how Chinese box office has inflated global box office; China BO and percentage of its global box office – Star Wars: The Force Awakens $124.1m (6%) Jurassic World $228m (13.6%)– Furious 7 $390.9m (25.7%), Avengers $86.3m (5.6%) Age of Ultron $240m (17.1%), Transformers: Dark of the Moon $165m (14%).
While Star Wars: The Force Awakens performed strongly in most countries breaking box office records in many countries underperformed in Asia (The UK out-grossed Chinese box office). With Asian actors Donnie Yen and Jiang Wen starring in Rogue One could Chinese box office increase in the similar way Age of Ultron did compared with the first Avengers film?
Reaction to the world premiere on December 10th was very positive but as you can never trust premiere audience reaction as they are always overhyped even terrible films get the positive reaction. Likewise reviews for films like Rogue One can’t be trusted as critics often get caught up in the hype; last year Spectre and Star Wars: The Force Awakens received many five star reviews many of which were probably written before they had seen them to try to be the first review, the one the studio sees and then use with their marketing.
Weeks after Spectre or as I prefer Dullfinger and The Force Awakens audiences see the films for what they really are but as 90% of films box office now is taken in a film first four weeks the overhyping of critics did the job.
Neo-nazis are calling for a boycott to Rogue One which will likely be as effective as the Men’s right activists that called for a boycott last year for The Force Awakens and the boycotting for Mad Max: Fury Road. Alright called for people to boycott Rogue One because it is “anti-white social engineering”.
ComeScore PreAct reported 201,918 new social media conversations about Rogue One in the last week 2,636,353 in total, but interestingly weekly conversations were higher in August with the release of the second trailer with 277,009 and a total of 1,275,133
- Collateral Beauty – Warner Bros
Drama starring an ensemble cast of Will Smith, Kate Winslet, Keira Knightley, Helen Mirren, Edward Norton, Michael Peña and Naomie Harris and directed by David Frankel.
Twenty-one years ago, Will Smith have starred in action movie Bad Boys which was a moderate success but then starred in Independence Day a year later which turned him from a US TV star to a global action hero in the years after Men in Black, Enemy of the State, and was Oscar nominated for Ali.
Sequels to Men in Back and Bad Boys followed along with I, Robot, Hitch, The Pursuit of Happyness, I Am Legend and Hancock but then Seven Pounds underperformed and MIB 3 took less than previous two films soon followed by the massive failure of Another Earth and Winer’s Tale. Last year Focus did ok but Concussion underperformed but this summer Suicide Squad taking over $700m worldwide despite all the negativity around it had much to do with Will Smith.
Over the years Will Smith has mixed the massive big budget films with the smaller films his breakthrough role which are underrated was Six Degrees of Separation in 1993 few saw but remember screening it in preview theater and was a very strong performance by him.
Opening same weekend in 2006 Will Smith starred with his son Jaden in the biographical drama The Pursuit of Happyness about Chris Gardner the film opened with $26.5m taking $163.5m but this was at the height of Will Smith’s acting career when everything bar The Legend of Bagger Vance was a massive box office success. In 2001 Will Smith starred in Ali in which he was Oscar nominated, was followed by Men in Black and Bad Boys 2, I Robot, Shark Tale and Hitch after The Pursuit of Happyness he starred in I Am Legend and Hancock. But then after MIB 3 at Sony he could make his vanity project After Earth was a massive flop his comeback film Focus in 2015 did but Concussion disappointed but while Suicide Squad disappointed many its success was a lot to do with Will Smith.
Collateral Beauty feels very similar in tone to The Pursuit of Happyness being described as It’s a Wonderful Life (according to reviews tries to be but fails) mixed with The Wizard of Oz. Trailer reminding me of Meet Joe Black Brad Pitt’s underrated 1998 film directed by Martin Brest and co-starring Anthony Hopkins and Nicolas Cage’s 2000 film The Family Man along with films like Miracle on 34th Street and Scrooged.
Ten years ago, David Frankel directed The Devil Wears Prada opening with $27.5m taking $124.7m and followed it with Marley & Me in 2009 opening with $36.3m taking $143.1m. His films since The Big Year in 2011, Hope Springs in 2012 and One Chance in 2013 weren’t nearly as successful opening with $3.2, $14.6m and $33,405.
Last year Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip opened with $14.2m and Sisters with $13.9m against Star Wars: The Force Awakens $247.9m but with Rogue One expected to open with half Collateral Beauty is likely to attract the non-Star Wars fans as Rogue One will be not so accessible to non-fans. Rogue One is eagerly awaited by fans but not so much but non-and is why rival studios feel there is room for many other films to open close to Rogue One
Unlike last year which had Daddy’s Home opening with $38.7m Joy $17.1m, Concussion $10.5, Point Break $9.8m and The Hateful Eight $4.6m. This year comedy Why Him? hoping to target the similar audience of Daddy’s Home last year, animation Sing will be seen by audiences as an unofficial sequel to Zootropolis, Passengers which many are describing as Titanic in Space and Assassin’s Creed.
- Fences – Paramount Pictures (limited)
Drama starring Denzel Washington, Viola Davis, Stephen Henderson, Jovan Adepo, Russell Hornsby, Mykelti Williamson, and Saniyya Sidney and directed by Denzel Washington his third film as a director.
The film adaption of the play has been in development for over 10 years delayed due to August Wilson’s insistence of having an African American director until 2013 when Denzel Washington expressed an interest in directing and starring in a film adaption.
After last year’s Oscar So White campaign it is one of a few films from studios this year to try and show they aren’t which is why Birth of a Nation became such an over hyped film during Sundance Film Festival in January as this was a completed film ready for the next award season but of course as often things don’t always go to plan.
Denzel Washington previous two films were critical but not box office successes Antwone Fisher in 2002 opened limited with $210,013 taking $21.1m and The Great Debaters in 2007 opened with $6m taking $30.2m.
Film has received positive reviews with Viola Davis expected to receive an Oscar nomination for her performance; opens in NY and LA December 16th
