- Paddington In Peru £9,649,984 – NE
Took £1.74m 18.03% Friday; £4.22m 43.74% Saturday; £3.689m 38.23% Sunday; about 1.2m admissions.
169th biggest opening between Incredibles 2 and Hancock (close to The Jungle Book, Ice Age II, Jumanji: The Next Level and WOG: The Curse of the WereRabbit) and 182nd biggest inflated opening between Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa and Batman and Robin (close to Mr Beans Holiday, Mamma Mia!, The Lego Movie and Gulliver’s Travels).
3rd biggest 2024 opening between Inside Out 2 and Dune: Part 2 (close to Despicable Me 4, Beetlejuice 2, Bob Marley: One Love and Joker: Folie à Deux).
Paddington in Peru opened 16.8% more than Paddington and 88.3% more than Paddington; Paddington 2 in comparison opened 61% more than the first film so would have surely expected 7 years later Paddington in Peru opened bigger, so maybe the reviews not being as positive as the first two films held some back from opening weekend.
Paddington In Peru received 92% Rotten Tomatoes compared to Paddington 2 99%: Paddington 97%
Opened bigger than 2023’s Wonka £8,904,750 699 screens taking £63,277,138: 2018’s Mary Poppins Returns £8,152,210/£8,999,046 taking £44,511,884/£49,135,695
Opened in 732 cinemas the widest of 2024 and the 8th widest ever opening between Downton Abbey: A New Era and Downton Abbey (close to Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Elvis, The Little Mermaid and Star Wars: The Last Jedi.
The Guardian said Paddington In Peru’s opening came as a surprise to industry observers after it received mixed subdued reviews compared to the two earlier films, but it opened exactly as expected and reviews weren’t going to have any effect on its opening. Had the biggest opening for a British film since 2021’s No Time To Die. Paddington In Peru might be made in the UK based on a British book, with a British cast and shot in the UK but was made by Studiocanal a French film company. Similarly, Gladiator II and Wicked will be seen as “British” as they were made in the UK.
In June 2016 Studiocanal announced plans for a third Paddington film over a year before Paddington 2 had been released, at the time the director of the first two films Paul King was attached to direct the third film, but he dropped out to direct Wonka in 2018. Studiocanal have plans for a fourth film and many more as the first two were hugely successful. The fourth film is expected in 2027 and 2028 will see the launch of a new TV series when Paddington celebrates its 70th anniversary. Paul King is set to direct Wonka 2 in 2026 so won’t return to direct Paddington 4.
David Heyman originally started developing Paddington at Warner Bros in 2007, in 2011 Warner Bros dropped it and it was acquired by Studiocanal. Warner Bros acquired US rights for Paddington 2, and Sony Pictures has US rights for Paddington in Peru and released it in January.
In October 2023 it was dated November 8th, 2024; the first trailer was released in June with a second released at the start of October. Sony Pictures acquired US rights (opening in January) Weinstein Co. had rights for the first film and Warner Bros acquired US rights for Paddington 2.
The first two films were hugely popular in the UK, but they faced lesser competition over the weeks after opening so both had exceedingly long legs which saw them play through to January. It’s different for Paddington In Peru with Moana 2 opening three weeks later and then Mufasa: The Lion King and Sonic The Hedgehog 3 over the Christmas holidays.
2014’s Paddington opened £5,125,519 518 screens #1; dropped 25% in the second weekend £3,837,885 #1 and £10,332,911 with Penguins of Madagascar opening #2 £1,575,949 and 24% in the third weekend £2,909,674 #2 staying in top 5 for 8 weeks (£943,320) and top 10 for 12 weeks (£208,857) (mid-February) taking £38,027,750
2017’s Paddington 2 opened £8,260,160 607 screens #1; dropped 20% in the second weekend £6,612,699 #3 and £16,893,580 with Justice League opening #1 £7,264,784 and 32% in the third weekend £4,545,218 #2; staying in top 5 for 8 weeks (£1,884,062) and top 10 for 10 weeks (£401,521) mid-January taking £42,661,628
- 2. Red One – £2,403,829 – NE
Took £412,980 17.2% from previews Weds/Thurs
Took £400k 16.65% Friday; £925k 38.49% Saturday; £668k 27.8% Sunday.
718th biggest opening between Dark Shadows and Moulin Rouge (close to The Lion King (1994), The Beach, Mirror Mirror and The Bodyguard) and 1,129th biggest inflated between 30 Days of Night and Storks (close to John Carter, Licence to Kill, Thunderbirds and Yogi Bear).
26th biggest 2024 opening between If and Madame Web (close to The Wild Robot, A Quiet Place: Day One, Garfield and Argylle)
553 cinemas (902 screens) 392nd widest opening similar to The Predator and Brave (close to Peppa’s Cinema Party, Sing, Star Trek: Into Darkness, Ghost in the Shell and The Amazing Spider-Man).
Red One opened a week earlier internationally (in 65 territories in 1,074 IMAX cinemas) than the US due to Gladiator 2 opening next week, being a Christmas film, it couldn’t open later due to Moana 2 opening in two weeks and has a 31-day theatrical window so it can be released on Amazon the week before Christmas. In Germany, many exhibitors boycotted the film due to its short theatrical window.
The film generated a lot of media coverage after having a big London premiere attended by Dwyane Johnson and appearing on Friday’s Graham Norton Show.
The budget was increased to $250m due to production delays and Dwayne Johnson was paid $50m. Apart from a cameo in Fast X Dwayne Johnson hasn’t starred in a film since 2022’s Black Adam, Red One was due to be released in November 2023 but was delayed a year due to the strikes.
Red One has been surrounded by negativity over the last few months with low expectations, reviews have been mixed at best but still had a good opening as it was expected to be cannibalized by Paddington in Peru. That said with Gladiator II opening this weekend followed by Wicked and Moana 2 over the next three weeks it’s likely to have a short run-in cinema.
There have been other Christmas set action films including 2022’s Violent Night; 2000’s Reindeer Games; 1996’s The Long Kiss Goodnight; 1990’s Die Hard 2; 1998’s Enemy of the State; 2005’s Kiss Kiss Bang Bang; 2005’s The Ice Harvest; 1992’s Batman Returns; 1987’s Lethal Weapon; 1988’s Die Hard. Of course, the debate is a film set at Christmas a Christmas film, as Die Hard was released in July while Christmas features in all of Shane Black’s screenplays, but does that make them Christmas films?
2004’s Bad Santa opened £474,450/£836,892 taking £2,407,426/£4,246,506
2016’s Bad Santa 2 opened £799,156 taking £1,882,879
1996’s Jingle All the Way opened £943,769/£2,020,176 taking £4,065,966/£8,703,365
Apart from a cameo in Fast X Dwayne Johnson hasn’t starred in a film since 2022’s Black Adam. He starred with Chris Evans in 2021’s Free Guy (opened £2,477,891 taking £16,866,112)
Amazon/MGM acquired Red One in June 2021, it was set to be filmed in 2022 and released in 2023 but was delayed a year due to the SAG strike. Deadline said it was originally planned for streaming release but when it was acquired it was seen as a tentpole release and potentially the start of a franchise.
Jake Kasdan previously directed Dwayne Johnson in two Jumanji films (taking $1.7bn worldwide) and also directed 2014’s Sex Tape, 2011’s Bad Teacher and 2007’s Walk Hard. He will also direct Jumanji 3 set for release on December 11th, 2026.
2011’s Bad Teacher opened £1,958,656/£2,559,828 taking £7,679,122/£10,036,080
2014’s Sex Tape opened £1,431,058/£1,686,604 taking £4,068,571/£4,795,102
2017’s Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle opened £8,154,548 #2 553 screens (including £4,114,058 previews) taking £36,968,605/£39,090,968; #1 Star Wars: The Last Jedi £10,158,640 2nd weekend
2019’s Jumanji: The Next Level opened £9,464,661 #1 637 screens (including £4.268,065 previews) taking £36,079,399/£39,577,402.
The screenplay was written by Chris Morgan who previously worked with Dwayne Johnson on Hobbs and Shaw, The Fate of the Furious, Furious 7, Fast & Furious 6 and Fast Five.
Red One opened with $26.6m internationally from 75 territories from 25,195 screens; UK $3.2m; Mexico $2.3m; China $2m; Spain $1.5m; Germany $1.4m despite several exhibitors boycotting the film. Opens on Friday in the US expected to open with about $30m.
Red One will drop 60%+ in its second weekend with the arrival of Gladiator II and after receiving poor word of mouth.
- 3. Heretic – £1,007,783 – £3,835,833
Down 49.17% in its second weekend (35% without previews)
Took £295k 29.29% Friday; £439k 43.59% Saturday; £273k 27.11% Sunday.
1,079th biggest second weekend between The Nutty Professor II: The Klumps and The Day the Earth Stood Still (close to The Accountant, The Equalizer 3, A Simple Favour and Alien3) and 1,646th biggest inflated between Dave and Red Heat (close to See How They Run, Smile 2, The Rising Sun and Platoon).
28th biggest 2024 second weekend between Poor Things and Civil War (close to Joker: Folie à Deux, Longlegs, Smile 2 and Furiosa)
Overtook Bryan Woods and Scott Beck’s last film 2023’s 65 £3,211,908.
While Hugh Grant has starred in some huge British films including Wonka, Paddington 2, Bridget Jones trilogy, Love Actually and Four Weddings and A Funeral has to go back to 1997’s Extreme Measures (taking £1,194,157/£2,323,765) for playing an unexpected role.
The end credits include a generative AI disclaimer “No generative AI was used in the making of this film.” Writer-director Scott Beck and Bryan Woods said in a Variety interview “AI is an amazing technology,” ..“Beautiful things will come of it, and it’s jaw-dropping. What is being created with generative AI and video … it’s amazing we could create that technology. Now let’s bury it underground with nuclear warheads, cause it might kill us all.”
- 4. Venom: The Last Dance £965,297 – £10,966,917
Dropped 55.6% in the third weekend
655th biggest third weekend between Nativity 2: Danger In The Manger! And Insidious (close to The Meg 2, Prisoners, 21 Jump Street and Napoleon) and 980th biggest inflated third weekend between Bad Moms and The Artist (close to Layer Cake, Limitless, Star Trek Beyond and Alita: Battle Angel)
76th biggest comic-book third weekend between Shazam! And Aquaman And The Lost Kingdom (close to Batman, The Amazing Spider-Man, Batman Returns and X-Men: The Last Stand) and the 86th biggest inflated comic=book between The Incredible Hulk and Aquaman And The Lost Kingdom (close to Dick Tracy, Superman IV, Daredevil and The Green Hornet)
Third weekends
2018’s Venom dropped 48% £1,568,433 #5 540 screens and £16,652,223 of £20,123,186; A Star is Born #1 £2,883,000; Halloween #2 £2,656,097; Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween #3 £2,119,165; Johnny English Strikes Again #4 £1,681,394.
2021’s Venom: Let There Be Carnage dropped 39% £1,515,357 #3 566 screens and £14,785,420 of £18,027,072; No Time To Die #1 £3,514,308; Dune #2 £3,312,159
78th biggest comic-book film between Batman Returns and Joker: Folie A Deux (close to Batman, Fantastic Four (2005), Blade 2 and Birds of Prey) and 90th biggest inflated between Hellboy 2: The Golden Army and Blade: Trinity (close to The Wolverine, Blade, Daredevil and Green Lantern).
642nd biggest between Tomb of the Dragon Emperor and Titanic 3D (close to Split, Pokemon: The First Movie, Sweeney Todd and Terminator: Genisys) and 1,075th biggest inflated between Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan and Just Friends (close to Bird on a Wire, Hollow Man, Three Kings and The Usual Suspects).
- 5. The Wild Robot £665,209 – £12,735,553
Down 69.5% in its fourth weekend (big drop due to end of half-term and Paddington In Peru)
591st biggest fourth weekend between Sleepless in Seattle and The Maze Runner (close to Instant Family, Me Before You, Step Up 2 and Jungle Cruise) and 888th biggest inflated fourth weekend between The Smurfs 2 and The Maze Runner: Scorch Trials (close to Dangerous Minds, A League of Their Own, Superman IV and Look Who’s Talking Too)
116th biggest animated fourth weekend between Rango and Space Jam (close to Cars 2, The Emoji Movie, The Addams Family and Planes) and the 135th biggest inflated animation between The Smurfs 2 and Horton Hears A Who (close to Monster House, The Little Mermaid (1990), The Lion King 3D and Wish).
33rd biggest Dreamworks Animation fourth weekend between Kung Fu Panda 2 and Over The Hedge (Abominable, The Bad Guys, Turbo and The Boss Baby 2) and the 35th inflated fourth weekend between Turbo and The Boss Baby 2.
22nd biggest Dreamworks Animation after 4 weeks between Trolls Band Together and Kung Fu Panda 2 (close to How to Train Your Dragon, Kung Fu Panda, Mr. Peabody And Sherman and Kung Fu Panda 3)
15th biggest 2024 film between Alien: Romulus and If (close to Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Twisters. The Fall Guy and Back to Black)
545th biggest between The Impossible and Lyle, Lyle Crocodile (close to Three Men and a Little Lady, Lilo & Stitch, Rise of the Guardians and Jungle Cruise) and 928th biggest inflated between Superman IV and Naked Gun 33 1/3 The Final Insult (close to Honey, I Blew Up the Kid, The Mask Of Zorro, Starship Troopers and Groundhog Day).
Also opened.
• Piece By Piece – Universal Pictures
Opened £186,978 #10 from 347 screens
Includes £69,096 from previews
It’s the fifth LEGO-based film and the first released by Universal Pictures, they have recently announced their first slate of LEGO-based films having acquired the licence from LEGO after the Warner Bros contract ended. They are currently untitled and will be directed by Jake Kasdan, Patty Jenkins and Joe Cornish.
After the success of Happy and Get Lucky in 2013 Pharrell Williams started developing a film about his life but didn’t want to make a traditional biopic and telling the story in LEGO allowed it to be “genre-defying”.
The film premiered at the Telluride Film Festival, was also screened at the Toronto Film Festival and will close London Film Festival on October 20th. It received positive reviews (90% on Rotten Tomatoes).
The first trailer was released in June with the first single of the soundtrack Piece by Piece released in September.
- Blitz – Apple
£245,688 #8 from 202 screens up 51$ from last weekend adding 198 screens.
Blitz opened in three London cinemas two weeks ago taking £163,124 #15 including £102,002 from previews.
Blitz had its world premiere at the London Film Festival last month receiving positive reviews 77% Rotten Tomatoes.
Having a limited cinema release before being released on Apple on November 22nd.. Films rarely have platform openings anymore in the UK and Blitz was one of a few that have over recent years, limited openings are still the norm in the Us for films wanting to build awareness and word of mouth but as seen with Anora last week they open immediately, the problem is these are films audiences don’t rush out to see over opening weekends.
The film was made by New Regency and Working Title Films
It was the third film directed by Steve McQueen to receive its premiere at the London Film Festival after 2018’s Widows and 2020’s Mangrove part of the Small Axe TV drama shown on BBC.
Blitz is Steve McQueen’s fifth film after
2008’s Hunger opened £136,413 #10 68 screens taking £754,018
2012’s Shame opened £415,314 325 screens taking £1,857,356
2013’s 12 Years A Slave opened £2,511,349 207 screens taking £20,001,093
2018’s Widows opened £2,409,112 570 screens taking £6,275,005
Also directed the 2023 documentary Occupied City based on the book Atlas of an Occupied City, Amsterdam 1940–1945 it had a limited cinema release in February. There is a 36-hour version of the film; opened £42,746 #28 from 45 screens
UK box office in detail
The weekend’s top 10 box office took £16,336,256 up 66.2% from last weekend’s £9,827,429: 2,062,659 admissions up 66.2% from 1,240,837 admissions.
2nd biggest weekend of the last 52 weeks between 26 July 2024 #1 Deadpool and Wolverine £17,276,621 (71.35%) and 29 December 2023 #1 Wonka £6,672,464 (41.50%)
19th biggest since cinemas reopened out of 208 weeks between 02 June 2023 #1 Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse £9,159,823 (55.31%) and 29 December 2023 #1 Wonka £6,672,464 (41.5%)
172nd biggest top 10 of the last 22 years (out of 1,180) between 26 December 2014 #1 The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies £4,249,226 (25.94%) and 03 August 2018 #1 Ant-Man and The Wasp £4,988,747 (30.55%) and 396th inflated between 13 August 2004 #1 The Bourne Supremacy £2,720,016 (29.55%) and 13 November 2015 #1 SPECTRE £7,833,891 (53.1%)
The top 3 took (£13,061,596) 79.9% of the top 10; Paddington In Peru 59.07% (£9,649,984); Red One 14.71% (£2,403,829); Heretic 6.17% (£1,007,783);
205th biggest admissions #1 (1,218,432) between 05 December 2008 #1 Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (1,219,807) and 07 May 2004 #1 Van Helsing (1,209,272)
168th biggest percentage share #1 (59.07%) between 22 September 2017 #1 Kingsman: The Golden Circle (59.1%) and 30 May 2003 #1 The Matrix Reloaded (58.69%)
Up 124.4% from 2023; (£7,279,587); The Marvels (£3,465,783); Anatomy Of A Fall (£412,751); Dream Scenario (£384,560); Don Quixote – ROH, London 2023 (£54,229); #1 The Marvels £3,465,783 662 screens (47.61% of top 10).
Up 5.6% 2022 (£15,472,862); Black Panther Wakanda Forever (£12,363,870); #1 Black Panther Wakanda Forever £12,363,870 1st week 699 screens (79.91% of top 10)
Up 91.8% 2021 (£8,515,063); Mothering Sunday (£156,940); Cry Macho (£72,131); West Side Story (1961) (60th Anniversary) (£8,725); #1 Eternals £2,918,585 2nd week 649 screens 47% drop (34.3% of top 10)
2020; COVID Second Lockdown England
Up 91.4% 2019; (£8,534,914); The Aeronauts (£1,042,337); The Good Liar (£960,536); Midway (£755,181); 42nd Street The Musical (£560,680); Madama Butterfly Met Opera 2019 (£270,363); Luce (£116,098); #1 Joker £1,668,466 32% drop 601 screens 6th week (19.6% of top 10)
Up 13.4% 2018: (£14,405,189); The Grinch (£5,019,677); Widows (£2,409,112); Overlord (£677,844); They Shall Not Grow Old (£271,302); #1 The Grinch £5,019,677 1st week 559 screens 30.3% of the top 10)
Up 12.2% 2017: (£18,610,649); Paddington 2 (£8,260,160); Only the Brave (£268,680); The Florida Project (£241,490); Predator (30th Anniversary) (£99,689); Professor Marston and the Wonder Women (£9,148); #1 Paddington 2 £8,260,160 1st week 607 screens 1st week (44.3% of the top 10)
Up 48.7% 2016: (£10,984,043); Arrival (£2,924,059); American Pastoral (£56,832); #1 Arrival £2,924,059 1st week 561 screens (26.6% of the top 10)
Up 10.3% 2015; (£14,812,116); The Lady in the Van (£2,256,121); Steve Jobs (£903,214); The Hallow (£51,742); Fathers and Daughters (£25,199); #1 SPECTRE £7,833,891 3rd week 617 screens 40% drop (52.8% of top 10)
Up 47.6% 2014: (£11,071,565); Interstellar (£5,378,220); Say When (£93,259); The Skeleton Twins (£19,204); November Man (£4,980); #1 Interstellar £5,378,220 1st week 574 screens (48.5% of top 10)
Up 13.9% 2013: (£14,343,283); Gravity (£6,238,375); #1 Gravity £6,238,375 1st week 539 screens (43.5% of top 10)
Up 7.6% 2012: (£15,185,020); Argo (£1,287,770); Here Comes the Boom (£433,052); The Sapphires (£337,641); Love Bite (£73,129); People Like Us (£19,981); #1 Skyfall £10,447,385 3rd week 589 screens 35% drop (68.8% of top 10)
Up 68.8% 2011; (£9,676,951); Immortals (£2,166,432); Arthur Christmas (£2,112,516); The Rum Diary (£608,055); The Awakening (£273,083); Trespass (£247,957); Wuthering Heights (£156,931); Tabloid (£4,618); #1 Immortals £2,166,432 1st week 428 screens (22.4% of top 10)
Up 111.8% 2010: (£7,711,855); Skyline (£1,206,207); You Again (£145,034); #1 Due Date £1,898,324 2nd week 452 screens 19% drop (24.6% of top 10)
Up 81.6% 2009; (£8,993,624); A Christmas Carol (£1,917,539); The Men Who Stare at Goats (£1,211,791); The Fourth Kind (£851,476); Bright Star (£207,881); #1 A Christmas Carol £1,917,539 1st week 446 screens (21.3% of top 10)
Up 18.5% 2008; (£13,780,120); Pride and Glory (£396,691); W (£367,512); Easy Virtue (£341,099); #1 Quantum of Solace £9,221,744 2nd week 541 screens 40% drop (66.9% of top 10)
Up 112.9% 2007: (£7,673,228); Good Luck Chuck (£1,316,325); Lions for Lambs (£658,282); Into the Wild (£196,994); Planet Terror (£80,894); The Band’s Visit (£18,704); Silk (£15,880); #1 Good Luck Chuck £1,316,325 1st week 379 screens (17.1% of top 10)
Up 74.7% 2006; (£9,349,640); The Prestige (£1,184,996); Breaking & Entering (£364,886); Starter for Ten (£207,345); #1 Borat £4,510,657 2nd week 430 screens 28% drop (48.2% of top 10)
Up 114.2% 2005: (£7,626,912); In Her Shoes (£1,337,176); The Constant Gardener (£1,004,641); Kiss Kiss, Bang Bang (£458,826); #1 In Her Shoes £1,337,176 1st week 325 screens (17.5% of top 10)
Up 6.8% 2004; (£15,300,361); Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason (£10,435,193); Ladies in Lavender (£423,313); Anacondas: The Hunt for the Blood Orchid (£194,597); #1 Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason £10,435,193 1st week 504 screens (68.2% of top 10)
Up 15.3% 2003 (£14,166,002); The Matrix Revolutions (£8,712,350); Seabiscuit (expansion) (£767,371); #1 The Matrix Revolutions £8,712,350 1st week 467 screens (61.5% of top 10)
Up 274.9% from 2002: (£4,357,114); Rabbit Proof Fence (£221,758); Orange County (£167,051); #1 28 Days Later £1,073,042 2nd week 320 screens 28% drop (24.6% of top 10)
Up 243.3% from 2001 (£4,758,297); Kiss of the Dragon (£478,811); The Piano Teacher (£71,911); #1 The Others £1,687,041 2nd week 386 screens 25% drop (35.4% of top 10).
2023 Next week: (£10,997,223); The Hunger Games: The Ballad Of Songbirds And Snakes (£5,420,681); Tiger 3 (£1,184,001); Saltburn (£841,064); Thanksgiving (£486,198); Kevin Bridges – The Overdue Catch-Up (£332,166); May December (£158,428); The Nightmare Before Christmas (30th Anniversary) (£95,418); THG: The Ballad Of Songbirds And Snakes £5,420,681 1st week 658 screens (49.29% of top 10).
UK Box Office News
October 2024 box office was 17% down from last year which saw the year-to-date drop down to 11% in 2023 this was mostly due to Joker: Folie À Deux underperforming. After the tremendous success of Joker in 2019 rival distributors avoided opening similar major films again it.
Biggest October releases
#1 Joker: Folie À Deux £10.2m
#2 The Wild Robot £9.5m
#3 Venom: The Last Dance £6.9m
#4 Smile 2 £4.9m
#5 Beetlejuice £4.3m of £25.9m
#6 Transformers One £4m
#7 Terrifier 3 £3.1m
#8 The Apprentice £1.8m
#9 The Substance £1.8m of £3.6m
#10 The Outrun £1.4m of £2.2m
2024 BO is currently £799.1m admissions to date 100.8m using last year’s £7.92 average.
November box office with Paddington In Peru, Gladiator II and Wicked likely to take over £125m between them will see box office overtake 2023, but December releases are softer than last year with Mufasa: The Lion King unlikely to get close to the box office of 2019’s The Lion King and Sonic the Hedgehog 3 opening Boxing Day films.
#1 Wicked £60m+
#2 Paddington in Peru £40m+
#3 Gladiator II £35m+
#4 Mufasa: The Lion King £30m
#5 Moana 2 £30m
#6 Sonic the Hedgehog 3 £30m
Wicked likely to perform similarly to musicals Mamma Mia!, The Greatest Showman and Bohemian Rhapsody as UK audiences love their musicals and Wicked stage musical has been hugely popular in the UK.
Paddington in Peru will perform similarly to the last two films despite reviews being more mixed it’s still far superior to most other family films.
Gladiator II will take more than the original film £31,257,293 but will come far from its inflated total of £58,616,618 as many other long-gap legacy sequels. Its box office will be inflated with a huge ..percentage of BO from IMAX/PLF screens, far more than the other films and they will be mostly adult tickets.
Current interest in Mufasa: The Lion King is exceptionally soft; this will surely increase over the next 6 weeks but it’s still hard to see it open anywhere near 2019’s The Lion King £16,671,764 taking £75,938,299.
Despite competition from Paddington in Peru, Wicked Moana 2 will perform stronger than the first film’s opening of £2,214,898 in December 2016 taking £20,041,031.
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 will take similar to Sonic the Hedgehog 2 having a preview inflated opening more than Sonic 2’s £4,986,334 and taking more than £26,182,692 having the normal Christmas boost.
2024 admissions are currently estimated at 127m similar to 1994’s admissions of 123.5m when annual BO was £401.38m and average tickets were £3.25 inflated BO £984.30m. This will still be over 50m admissions fewer than 2019.
Compare this to admissions in France which has a similar population as the UK but their admissions for 2024 will be much closer to pre-pandemic levels, with admissions expected to return to over 200m. So why are UK admissions so slow to return to 2019 levels when there will be 10 films taking over £30m at the BO in 2024: Inside Out 2 £58.72m; Deadpool & Wolverine £57.50m; Despicable Me 4 £48.5m; Dune: Part 2 £39.17m.
Surely things like France having a 4-day Fete Du Cinema in June/July with over 4.5m admissions while the UK holds National Cinema Day over one of the slowest weekends for cinema=going.
The reason of course is seen in recent BFI research UK audiences have become much more selective in the films they see in the cinema as most now see going to the cinema as a treat rather than something they do regularly like watching the new must-see TV series on Netflix.
US Box Office
- Venom: The Last Dance – Sony Pictures
Dropped 49.2% in the third weekend $15.9m and $114.49m
Took $1.5m from IMAX and $10m total
289th biggest third weekend between Pocahontas and Mary Poppins Returns (close to Shazam!, X-Men: The Last Stand, Batman Begins and Batman Forever).
665th biggest between Dumbo and Fifty Shades Darker; 1,476th biggest inflated between Hocus Pocus and Neighbors; 14th biggest 2024 between The Wild Robot and Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire; 82nd biggest comic book between Ghost Rider and Superman II; 83rd biggest Sony Pictures between The Karate Kid, Part II and Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire.
Has 715m social media followers across TikTok, X, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube, less than Venom (754m) and more than Let There Be Carnage (417m).
Last year The Marvels opened $46.11m taking $84.5m and in 2022 Black Panther: Wakanda Forever opened $181.33m taking $453.82m
The box office is currently 11% down from 2023 and 27% from 2019, but Gladiator, Wicked and Moana 2 are likely to perform very strongly this month should see BO top 2019 levels by the end of the month, but December will likely be softer than 2019.
Third weekends
2018’s Venom dropped 48.5% $18.04m #3 and $171.06m of $213.51m and $856.08m worldwide
2021’s Venom: Let There Be Carnage dropped 48% $16.5m #3 and $168.07m of $213.55m and $506.81m worldwide.
Next from Sony/Marvel is Kraven the Hunter set for release in December
Took $33m from 66 territories $279.4m total and $393.8m worldwide; China $82.8m; Mexico $17.2m; UK $14.3m; Germany $11.5m; Korea $11.2m; took $29.6m worldwide from IMAX.
369th biggest worldwide between Meg 2: The Trench and Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!; 13th biggest 2024 between Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes and Twisters; 61st biggest comic-book between Eternals and Superman Returns; 34th biggest Sony Pictures between Bad Boys: Ride or Die and Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood.
- Heretic – A24
Opened $11.01m; received positive reviews (94% Rotten Tomatoes) and C+ CinemaScore.
Took $1.2m from Thursday previews; Longlegs $3m; Terrifier 3 $2.39m; Smile $2m; Hereditary $1m
It was Hugh Grant’s biggest opening in a leading role for over 20 years
67% of tickets were from 18-35
Opened bigger than A24’s Midsommar $6.5m/$10.9m 5-day), Witch ($8.8m) and MaXXXine $6.7m
2024’s Longlegs opened $22.4m taking $74.34m and $125.71m worldwide
2024’s Terrifier 3 opened $18.92m taking $52.25m and $73.24m worldwide
2018’s Hereditary opened $13.57m taking $44.06m and $87.82m worldwide
Scott Beck and Bryan Wood previously directed 2023’s 65 opening $12.32m #3 taking $32.06m and $60.73m worldwide
Heretic social media had 60m followers ahead of release compared to 125m for Imaginary.
The film premiered at the Toronto Film Festival
- Smile 2 – Paramount Pictures
Dropped 24% in its fourth weekend $5.11m #5 and $60.65m.
Fourth weekend
2022’s Smile dropped 32.6% $8.47m #3 and $84.43m of $105.93m and $217.4m worldwide
1,511th biggest between Three Kings and The Color Purple (2023); 2,721st biggest inflated between Red Dawn (2012) and Poltergeist (2015); 26th biggest 2024 between The Beekeeper and Transformers One; 88th biggest horror between Devil’s Advocate and Resident Evil: Afterlife; 208th biggest Paramount Pictures between Harlem Nights and Kiss the Girls.
Smile took $3.7m from 62 territories $63.1m total and $123.6m worldwide
1,693rd biggest worldwide between Hoodwinked and Sideways; 33rd biggest in 2024 between Transformers One and Longlegs; 102nd biggest horror between Pet Sematary and The Amityville Horror (2005); 193rd biggest Paramount pictures between Pet Sematary and Snake Eyes.
- The Wild Robot – Universal Pictures
Dropped 11% in the seventh weekend $6.61m #4 and $130.85m.
103rd biggest seventh weekend between How to Train Your Dragon and Twister (close to March of the Penguins, Toy Story, Moana and Despicable Me 4).
97th biggest animated film between Rio 2 and The Peanuts Movie; 530th biggest between Lara Croft: Tomb Raider and The Silence of the Lambs; 1,243rd biggest inflated between The Man in the Iron Mask and Garfield: The Movie; 13th biggest 2024 between A Quiet Place: Day One and Venom: The Last Dance; 76th biggest Universal Pictures between Hulk and The Flintstones.
Dreamworks Animations have taken $6.51bn in the US and almost $17.5bn worldwide.
Took $9m from 80 territories $161.6m total and $292.2m worldwide; Mexico $19.1m; UK $16.5m; France $11.7m; Australia $10.9m; Spain $9.3m.
110th biggest animated worldwide between Migration and Bee Movie; 590th biggest worldwide between G-Force and Pacific Rim: Uprising; 18th biggest 2024 worldwide between It Ends With Us and A Quiet Place: Day One; 76th biggest Universal Pictures worldwide between Five Nights at Freddy’s and Pacific Rim: Uprising.
- Anora – Neon
Up 40% added 851 screens to 1,104 screens $2.52m #7 and $7.28m
It’s currently the favourite to win Best Picture Oscar next year ahead of Emilia Perez, Conclave and The Brutalist. Next year’s Oscars are wide open compared to other years with fewer contenders. In the last 70 years has only been one film that won both the Palme d’Or and Best Picture: Bong Joon-ho’s Parasite.
While Anora has had a slow expansion it opened in 344 screens two weeks ago in the UK dropping almost 100 screens in its second weekend taking £240,719 #9 from 252 screens and £1,052,913.
Sean Baker’s previous films
2021’s Red Rocket expanded to 377 screens after three weeks taking $1.02m and $2.31m worldwide.
2017’s The Florida Project expanded to 229 screens after 6 weeks taking $5.9m and $10.95m worldwide
2015’s Tangerine expanded to 44 screens after 5 weeks taking $702,354
It was acquired by Neon and became the fifth consecutive Palme d’Or winner distributed by Neon in the US after Parasite, Titane, Triangle of Sadness and Anatomy of a Fall.
Took $1.6m internationally from 26 territories and $5m worldwide
- A Real Pain – Searchlight
Up 29% in the second weekend $294,645 from 12 screenings adding 8 screens; received positive reviews (93% Rotten Tomatoes)
Expands into 900+ screens this weekend
The film premiered at the Sundance Film Festival receiving critical acclaim; soon after Searchlight Pictures acquired world rights for $10m. It was the opening film of the Jewish Film Festival last week in the UK and opens in the UK in January.
UK Box Office Top 10
UK Box Office Preview
Gladiator II has been generating massive media coverage over the last month, the early media screening influencers raved about the film calling it the best film ever made. Critics have said while it looks incredible, Denzel Washington gives a Best Supporting Actor performance but has a very similar plot to the original and predictably Paul Mescal is no Russell Crowe.
There have been many stories from insiders about Gladiator II, In Deadline in July “a couple of industry veterans,” said Gladiator II” was “fantastic,” and could be a major player in the upcoming Oscar race saying Mescal was “terrific” and Washington “extraordinary”. In April Gladiator II test screened saying it was “thrilling” and “Oscar-worthy.” Empire City said Gladiator II was Ridley Scott’s best film and Paramount were blown away with the footage they have seen.
Gladiator II was selected to be the Royal Film Performance on November 13th; the first since Top Gun: Maverick in May 2022. It has regional premieres across the UK on Wednesday and Thursday and has previews across the UK with captioning, Paramount held similar previews for Transformers One.
Gladiator II is seen as a major award contender with many believing Ridley Scott could finally win Best Director Oscar after being nominated three times previously for Best Director, Thelma & Louise, Gladiator and Black Hawk Down. But only two sequels have won Best Picture and Director Oscars 1974’s The Godfather Part II and 2003’s The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King.
Gladiator opened in May 2000 £3,555,446/£6,667,507 inflated taking £31,257,293/£58,616,618 inflated; was #1 for 7 weeks, as Gladiator II opens the week after Paddington In Peru and a week before Wicked it won’t get to #1.
About 50% will come from IMAX/PLF screens but will share those screens next week when Wicked opens. See that in advance booking for Gladiator IMAX/PLF screenings are far more busy than standard.
Would expect Gladiator II comparison films to include 2023’s Oppenheimer £10,891,486: 2017’s Dunkirk £10,023,720 and 2020’s 1917 £7,446,302.
Paddington in Peru shouldn’t be affected by the opening of Gladiator II playing to a much younger audience so should have a 25%-30% drop taking between £6.5m-£7.3m
2014’s Paddington dropped 25% in the second weekend £3,837,885 #1 and £10,332,911 with Penguins of Madagascar opening #2 £1,575,949 and 24% in the third weekend £2,909,674 #2 staying in top 5 for 8 weeks (£943,320) and top 10 for 12 weeks (£208,857) (mid-February) taking £38,027,750.
2017’s Paddington 2 dropped 20% in the second weekend £6,612,699 #3 and £16,893,580 with Justice League opening #1 £7,264,784 and 32% in the third weekend £4,545,218 #2; staying in the top 5 for 8 weeks (£1,884,062) and top 10 for 10 weeks (£401,521) mid-January taking £42,661,628.
Red One will drop 60%+ in its second weekend after receiving poor word of mouth taking about £900k and will be dropping down the chart long before it will likely be released on Amazon next month.
Kiss Me, Kate: The Musical is being shown in cinemas on Sunday and Wednesday advance sales in a few cinemas I’ve looked at look good and with the Event Cinema ticket price of £20 it will play to an older audience not interested in either Gladiator II or Paddington In Peru. It’s a chance for theatre fans to see the recent Barbican version that closed in September.
All other films are likely to drop 50%+
Last weekend was the biggest top 10 since Deadpool and Wolverine opening in July and Paddington In Peru was the 26th different film to be #1
Opening in three weeks
- Nightbitch – Disney
Black comedy horror starring Amy Adams, Scoot McNairy, Arleigh Snowden, Emmett Snowden, Zoë Chao, Mary Holland, Ella Thomas, Archana Rajan, and Jessica Harper and directed by Marielle Heller, based on the 2021 novel by Rachel Yoder.
Premiered at the Toronto Film Festival receiving mixed reviews; received its UK premiere at the London Film Festival. Many took issue with the tone of the trailer which felt very different to the novel.
Searchlight acquired world rights in 2022 from Annapurna for $25m as with several other films was originally set for release on streaming in the US until Searchlight announced in April would be released in December.
Marielle Heller previously directed 2015’s The Diary of a Teenage Girl (opened £81,185 #12 from 80 screens); and 2019’s Can You Ever Forgive Me? (opened £518,230 #8 256 screens taking £1,170,469) and 2020’s A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (opened £493,770 ‘8 taking £1,129,994).
Other films about motherhood include 2018’s Tully opened £138,674 #8 200 screens and 2021’s The Lost Daughter Netflix.
- Rumours – Universal Pictures
Black comedy starring Cate Blanchett, Charles Dance, Takehiro Hira, Zlatko Burić, and Alicia Vikander and directed by Guy Maddin, Evan Johnson, and Galen Johnson.
Had a world premiere at the Cannes Film Festival receiving positive reviews.
- Unstoppable – MetFilm/Amazon MGM Studios
The biographical sports drama starring Jharrel Jerome, Jennifer Lopez, Bobby Cannavale, Michael Peña, and Don Cheadle and directed by William Goldenberg is based on the 2012 book by Anthony Robles.
Jharrel Jerome and Jennifer Lopez were on the Graham Norton Show on Friday promoting the film.
Premiered at the Toronto Film Festival receiving positive reviews (72% Rotten Tomatoes).
Wrestling films have had mixed success at the UK box office; 2015’s Foxcatcher (opened £877,408 taking £1,681,381); 2009’s The Wrestler (opened £802,046 taking £1,592,098); 2024’s The Iron Claw (opened £754,152 taking £2,380,926); 2019’s Fighting With My Family (opened £2,022,174 taking £5,837,684).
- Andre Rieu’s Christmas Concert: Gold And Silver – Piece Of Magic
It has been 13 years since the first Andre Rieu: Maastricht Concert was released and has taken over £20m since; they grew in popularity from 2014 to 2019, but post-COVID haven’t had similar success.
Why have audiences not returned in the same number they did before COVID-19 is it that they realise these concerts are quite similar to previous years and older concerts are available to watch on Sky Arts regularly?
2014’s André Rieu: Maastricht Concert £830,586,
2015’s Andre Rieu: Maastricht Concert £1,107,000.
2016’s Andre Rieu: Maastricht Concert £1,414,075.
2017’s Andre Rieu: Maastricht Concert £1,439,604.
2018’s André Rieu’s Maastricht Concert Amore £1,783,222.
Andre Rieu 2019 Maastricht Concert – Shall We Dance? £1,492,154 #4 587 screens.
2020’s Andre Rieu: Magical Maastricht: Together In Music (September) £124,101 #4 403 screens.
2021’s Andre Rieu: Summer Concert: Together Again (August) £420,056 #4 551 screens.
2022’s Andre Rieu: Maastricht Summer Concert opened #1 £798,706
2023 Andre Rieu: Maastricht Concert: Love Is All Around #5 £710,326
2024’s Andre Rieu’s 2024 Maastricht Concert -#5 £629,652 from 649 screens