- Avatar: The Way of Water – £7,643,764 – £44,971,330
Up 53.7% in its third weekend; £3.25m (up 27.4%); £2.2m Saturday (13.7% drop) (Sunday £214k up 2,478% (previous Sunday Christmas Day)
6th biggest third weekend between Spectre and Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (close to Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Beauty and the Beast and LOTR: Return of the King) and 22nd biggest inflated between Finding Nemo and Die Another Day (close to A Bug’s Life, Monsters, Inc, The Lion King (1994) and Independence Day).
60th biggest film in the UK (60th to take £40m+ since Jurassic Park in 1993) between The Inbetweeners Movie and Mary Poppins Returns (close to The Jungle Book, The King’s Speech, Toy Story 2 and 1917) and 151st biggest inflation inflated between Austin Powers in Goldmember and Cats and Dogs (close to Crocodile Dundee II, The Silence of the Lambs, The Mask and The Bodyguard).
In 2009 Avatar took 85%+ from 3D with IMAX (9 screens) and 2D (300) taking about 7% each but 2D has taken far more of the BO for Avatar 2 (41%) with 47% 3D and 12% IMAX.
It’s hard to make any direct comparisons between Avatar 2 with any other film and opening 13 years after the first film it’s impossible to compare it to the original film. While many talks about it playing similarly to Avatar and Titanic, the marketplace was very different then audiences weren’t desperate to see it over opening weekend, so film BO was strong and steady for months, whereas in Avengers Endgame 90% of BO taken within 24 days; Avatar was similar to Top Gun: Maverick 57% Vs 65% but Spider-Man No Way Home 1%.
The big question is whether it will top Avatar BO and whether will it have similar legs, and it has so far performed as expected, this weekend is its key weekend if it drops over or under 50% as with a lack of film releases aimed at its audience until February due to rivals concerns that it would have the legs of the original film it should drop about 40% over the next few weeks.
In 2009 Avatar had much more competition as few expected Avatar to be a massive success, in its third weekend increased by 55% taking £5,940,479 but other holdovers Sherlock Holmes (£3,439,616 up 12%; Alvin And The Chipmunks II £2,457,029 up 83% (not including previews); Nine (£780,255), St. Trinian’s 2 £671,480 up 54% with new release Did You Hear About The Morgan’s opening with £1,155,060.
Few would have imagined that Avatar would take £4m+ for the next 8 weeks returning to #1 for 8 of the next 9 weeks and go on to take £93,442,625 (£140m inflated).
The original was #1 for 7 weeks in a row taking £4m+ for all those weeks after opening with £8.5m, the question is how many weeks Avatar will: The Way of Water stay at #1 as Empire of Light (January 9th 7-day opening) is the only film that could open #1 before Puss In Boots: The Last Wish (February 3rd).
Comparison titles to Avatar 2 apart from the first film are going by its opening Rogue One and Lord of the Rings trilogy and The Hobbit trilogy also opened the same weekend in December with similar BO, but of course, its 21 years ago since the first Lord of the Rings film and they weren’t released originally in 3D or IMAX.
The 7 James Cameron-directed films have taken £300m at the UK BO (don’t have data for Terminator) but the age of many of them sees the inflation inflated total of £500m+. The only film that failed to find an audience In the UK was 1989’s The Abyss opening for £204,075 (after an exclusive platform at Odeon Leicester Square taking £1,348,000 (£5,065,972 inflated) as all of his films it was visually stunning and looked stunning in 70mm at the Odeon Marble Arch.
- 2. I Wanna Dance with Somebody – £3,325,458 – NE
Took £1.95m (taking 58.8%) from previews Mon-Thurs (opening Boxing Day)
Took £340k Mon; £525k Tues; £540k Weds; £537k Thurs; £615k Fri £415k Sat; £311k Sun (took £1.37m Fri-Sun)
Had the 461st biggest opening between The Mummy (2017) and Maleficent: Mistress Of Evil (close to Toy Story, What Women Want, The Devil Wears Prada and The Proposal) and 730th inflated between Central Intelligence and 300: Rise of An Empire (close to The Muppets, America’s Sweethearts, Mulan and Back to the Future).
While the Whitney Huston biopic had a soft opening in the US last weekend it was always likely to perform far stronger in the UK as the script written by Anthony McCarten previously wrote the scripts for Darkest Hour, Bohemian Rhapsody, and The Theory Of Everything winning lead actor Oscars for Rami Malek, Gary Oldman and Eddie Redmayne and all three performed much better in the UK than the US.
Music biopics include
1993’s Tina, What’s Love Got To Do with It opened £471,570 (£1,187,005 inflated) taking £3,703,961 (£9,323,366 inflated)
2019’s Rocketman opened £5.3m, taking £23.5m
2015’s Straight Outta Compton opened £2,498,231 taking £8,043,283.
2006’s Walk the Line opened £1,111,142 taking £9,737,493 (£16,155,841 inflated)
2022’s Elvis opened £4,023,572 taking £27,492,430
2005’s Ray opening #7 with £485,005 from 225 screens taking £1,592,017
2007’s Dreamgirls opened £1,329,817 (£2,127,707 inflated) taking £3,475,271 (£5,560,434 inflated)
2018’s Bohemian Rhapsody opened £9.5m taking £55.4m
2003’s 8 Mile opened £4,440,334 (£7,520,566 inflated) taking £13,254,812 (£22,449,591 inflated)
While opening comparisons could be made with 2017’s The Greatest Showman which similarly received poor reviews, but it was a film audiences wanted to see an opening with £4,754,049 from 6 days (including The Greatest Showman includes £2,178,902 previews. Not for a second am I suggesting that the film will have legs, but the two weeks of Christmas from December 16th-January 2nd are the most lucrative days of the year when audiences will come out to see films they might not normally see. As seen with Monster Trucks opening with £1,726,229 Boxing Day 2016 taking 90% of its £3,255,346 BO In 10 days.
Normally many more films are opening in the lead-up to the Christmas holidays and then open over Boxing Day but this year audiences only had the choice of three films Avatar: The Way Of Water, I Wanna Dance With Somebody and Roald Dahl’s Matilda The Musical.
The film opened exactly 30 years to the day of the opening of The Bodyguard with £2,348,330 (£5,911,061 inflated) taking £17,001,069 (took 7.24x opening) £42,793,968 inflated; it opens #2 behind Home Alone 2 but in its second weekend became #1 for 5 weeks taking £1m+ for 5 weeks.
- 3. Roald Dahl’s Matilda The Musical – £2,040,514 – £20,816,984
Up 80.9% in its sixth weekend
Friday £870k; Saturday £720k; Sunday £422k
14th biggest 2022 film between Fantastic Beasts and Black Adam
13th biggest sixth weekend between Frozen 2 and Star Wars: The Force Awakens (close to The Greatest Showman, The Full Monty, No Time To Die and The Grinch). But impossible to compare as the film had such an increase from the previous weekend.
The first four weeks of Matilda BO were limited mostly to weekend BO taking £12,763,080 over the first 24 days and £8,033,505 over the last two weeks over the Christmas holidays, including £750k taken on Bank Holiday Monday, has taken £8.8m over 40% of its total BO over Christmas holidays.
In 2014 Paddington opened the same weekend as Matilda taking £18,120,879 48% of £37,805,402 total 4 weeks before Christmas 33.6% (£12,697,171) over 2 weeks of Christmas and 18.5% (£6,987,352) after Christmas. Matilda opened with (£4,135,418) 20% less than Paddington (£5,125,519) will end up taking about 33% less (£25m).
Paddington was released in a far more crowded marketplace than Matilda, but it was also far stronger with 8 films taking £1m+ over the opening weekend of 2015 compared with 3 this year with three other family films on release (Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb, Annie and Penguins of Madagascar). This again highlights how soft the marketplace has been this year and how BO has been shared across fewer films which can’t be healthy.
Matilda will again be limited to mostly weekend BO over the next few weeks with the next major family film not opening until February 3rd Puss In Boots: The Last Wish, so Matilda should go on to take about £25m.
Sixth weekends
1996’s Matilda dropped 11% £511,093 (£1,116,117 inflated) and £6,637,269 (£14,494,360) 64.9% of £10,227,163 (£22,333,913 inflated)
2005’s Charlie and the Chocolate Factory dropped 41% £660,671 #3 and £35,046,490 93.8% of £37,354,584 (£64,081,749 inflated)
2009’s Fantastic Mr Fox dropped 51% £221,129 #11 and £8,582,765 92.7% of £9,260,892 (£13,755,148)
2016’s The BFG dropped 47% £658,840 #7 and £27,272,470 88.9% of £30,694,086
261st biggest film between Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Shakespeare In Love (close to Cinderella, Fantastic Beasts 3, Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves and The Mummy Returns) and 521st biggest inflated between The Secret Life of Pets 2 and The Lego Movie: The Second Part (close to Parenthood, Hercules, Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked and Gnomeo and Juliet).
12th biggest family/musical film between E.T and Scooby-Doo (close to The BFG, Cats and Dogs, Mrs Doubtfire and Babe) and the 39th biggest inflated between Stuart Little 2 and Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked (close to Matilda (1996), Flubber, The Muppets and Gulliver’s Travels).
- 4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – £436,156 – £33,238,151
Up 116.2% in its 8th weekend; dropped out of the top 5 last weekend but returned into the top 5 after the Christmas re-releases (Love Actually and Elf) dropped out. Black Panther 2 took £377,824 in its 6th weekend and £200,945 in the 7th).
Black Panther 2 returned into the top 5 was more to do with a lack of new film releases than the stronghold of the film as 2018’s Black Panther took a third more in its 6th weekend (£684,430 taking £49,089,752 98.5% of £49,858,826.
Black Panther 2 has taken a third less than the first film this was a common occurrence with the performance of films in 2022 taking about a third less than they would have down pre-pandemic, the only exception was Top Gun Maverick and 2022 BO of Spider-Man No Way Home. As that was the reason why 2022 BO was a third less than 2019.
71st biggest 8th weekend between Harry Potter’s Deathly Hallows Part 2 and Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (close to The Mask, Jurassic World, Inception and Avengers Infinity War).
14th biggest MCU film between Thor: Love and Thunder and Thor: Ragnarök (close to Iron Man 3, Captain America: Civil War, Doctor Strange and Shang-Chi).
117th biggest film between The Inbetweeners Movie 2 and Suicide Squad (close to Spider-Man 3, The Matrix Reloaded, The Lego Movie and Gravity) and 266th biggest inflated between What Women Want and Planet of the Apes (close to Rain-Man, The Mummy, Armageddon and Never Say Never Again).
22nd biggest comic-book film between Spider-Man 3 and Suicide Squad (close to Batman Vs Superman, Men In Black, Deadpool 2 and Spider-Man Homecoming) and 36th biggest inflated between Thor: Ragnarok and Spider-Man Homecoming (close to Thor: Love and Thunder, Man of Steel, Superman III and Batman and Robin).
Black Panther 2 took $2.6m internationally from 50 territories $380.5m total (55.8% of Black Panther’s $681.82m) and $818.5m worldwide (59.2% of $1.38bn Black Panther worldwide). Ahead of release Black Panther 2 was surely expected to take $!bn+ world as Doctor Strange 2 and Thor Love and Thunder.
Marvel released three films this year Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania in February (Ant-Man films have so far been the lowest-grossing films of the MCU so will the third be any different?), Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 in May (can the magic strike for a third time, while James Gunn makes his final MCU film as he moves to DC. Disney fired James Gunn in July 2018 before rehiring him 9 months later) and The Marvel in July (sequel to Captain Marvel and TV series Ms Marvel).
- 5. Strange World – £280,777 – £3,157,260
Up 95% in its 6th weekend despite being released on Disney+ on December 23rd.
Similar to Black Panther 2 the film returned to the top 5 after a week taking more in its 6th weekend than its 4th (£193,836) and 5th (£143,572) due to a lack of new family releases, as seen by The Amazing Maurice up 329% in its second weekend (£113,546 from 158 screens) Lyle Lyle Crocodile returning into top 10 in its 12th weekend up 875% (£88,337) and Minions: The Rise Of Gru up 542% (£34,179). All of these films are available to watch at home, but audiences choose to see them in cinemas and likely pay more to do so.
Exhibitors complained that the one-week theatrical release of Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery in November left a lot of money on the table but exhibitors could have rebooked it last week after being released on Netflix and as these children’s films it would have attracted audiences into cinemas to see it as Netflix has 13.7m UK subscribers.
As with Encanto in 2021 Strange World is still finding an audience in cinemas after being released on Disney+. Encanto took a third of its BO after it was released on Disney+.
187th biggest animated film between Astro Boy and Bratz: The Movie (close to Ron’s Gone Wrong, Meet the Robinsons, The Nightmare Before Christmas and Oliver & Company) and 200th inflated between Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron and Peppa Pig: Festival of Fun (close to Star Wars: The Clone Wars, The Iron Giant, Monsters, Inc. 3D and Toy Story 3 3D).
1,779th biggest film between Crazy, Stupid, Love and Little Women (1995) (close to Working Girl, Thelma & Louise, The Meaning of Life and Die Hard) and 2,137th inflated between Killing Them Softly and The Visit (close to Dragnet, Dog, We Bought A Zoo and A Dog’s Purpose).
Film News
UK BO for 2022 is expected to be about £950m (lower than expected as in September was expected to top £1bn with admissions 30% down in 2019 would see them back to the same level they were in 1994 (BO was £401.38m £997.88m inflated) would see an average price £7.72 up 3% from last year (with UK inflation of 9.6% can’t believe its average is up only 3%). But Cineworld Day and National Cinema Day must have helped lower the average but then Avatar 2 tickets would have surely increased the average.
BO is expected to be £1.12bn this year, this will be similar to BO 10 years ago. In 2020 analysts expected BO to return to pre-pandemic levels by 2023, but now this is being pushed back to 2024. No Time to Die, Spider-Man No Way Home, Top Gun Maverick and Avatar: The Way of Water have been hugely successful, but the problem is audiences aren’t seeing many more films in cinemas unlikely they used to.
In a Guardian article Vue said there were 62 films released in 2022 compared with 92 on average in 2017-2019, what they meant was wide releases as ComScore will report next week where 900+ films were released in 2022. Vue and AMC both say it’s a supply issue, but there are plenty of films being released, (this week there are 11 films released but Andre Rieu In Dublin 2023 will take more than the other 10 combined). There are plenty of films being released and the problem is audiences are seeing far fewer of them in cinemas. The top 10 took about 45% of BO, the top 20 almost 70%, top 50 85%+ leaving about £120m shared between 850+ other films including Event Cinema.
Vue Cinemas Tim Richards said in October 2021 the world is “about to embark on the second Golden Age of cinema”…. “So for the next 12-to-18 months we’re going to have almost three years of movies released, and it’s going to be extraordinary.”… The problem is that every Spider-Man No Way Home, Top Gun Maverick and Avatar 2 are dozens of other wide releases that are failing to find audiences in cinemas they would have gotten a decade or more ago.
The first golden age of cinema was the post-Second World War with 1.5bn+ annual admissions 31m+ a week, last week was about 10% of that.
Despite saying 15 months ago there would be three years of films released in the next 12-18 months he still told The Guardian that “It is just a supply issue,” …. . “We won’t be back to pre-pandemic levels of releases until the back end of next year. There is a lot of evidence [of successful films] now behind us, but not a lot of movies ahead of us.”
Exhibitors say these things surely as effectively as they also spoke recently about how strong the slate of films is from the start of February to the end of the year, with Avatar 2 rival studios avoiding opening anything in January fearing it would be cannibalised as was the case in the 8 weeks after Avatar opening in 2009 and 6 weeks after Black Panther in 2018. Most assumed the sequels would have similar legs so that was why November to February had very few other major releases.
The problem is the industry has gotten very short-sighted over the last 20 years compared with the previous 20 years when it was about building audiences. UK admissions grew steadily between 1985 and 2002 but only grew 1% between 2003 and 2018 while BO increased by 68.3% as the industry’s focus changed to seeing price as a way to increase profits rather than building an audience.
Had the industry continued with growth policies and kept events like National Cinema Day (which ended in 1997 at the time it was talked about being an annual event but only was returned this year) going UK admissions would be 250m+ now generating more BO than is currently.
It’s this short-term that killed 3D as the industry saw 3D as a way to increase ticket prices by a third, but audiences over time seeing many poorly retrofitted 3D rejected them. In 2009 Avatar took 85%+ from 3D while Avatar 2 is about half that.
Industry heralded the success of Avatar 2 taking $100m worldwide from IMAX 46 years after the first IMAX film took $100m with 40m admissions from a handful of IMAX cinemas ($2.50 average compared to $20 for Avatar 2 from 1,543 worldwide).
Until the industry stops thinking in the short-term nothing will change as seen with 2023 expected to be still lower than 2019.
Lockdown gave the cinema industry a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to relaunch itself in the streaming era, but exhibitors were only thinking short-term desperate to reopen as quickly as possible, ignoring their research that said it would take a long time for all audiences to return. While cinemas reopened in July 2020 in the UK, like nothing had changed, most cinemas were still showing the same films they showed in March.
Do wonder if exhibitors would have been in such a rush to reopen had Christopher Nolan not believed he was the saviour of cinemas demanding Warner Bros to open Tenet in July 2020 when all other films were delayed. Instead of being the ‘saviour of cinema’ he predictably caused more long-term damage to cinema than COVID as audiences didn’t start returning pre-pandemic numbers until September 2021 for No Time to Die and then Spider-Man No Way Home
Will be interesting to see how exhibitors treat Christopher Nolan’s next film Oppenheimer as his demands for a 100-day theatrical window are exactly what exhibitors demanded but with Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning – Part One opening week before and The Marvels week after (and opens against Barbie) they will surely be changing their thinking by next July?
Comscore reported in September they expected UK BO to top £1bn but admissions hadn’t topped 100m by the end of November (99,825,130) Jan-Nov 2021 levels. As UK BO didn’t top £1bn this will show that 2022 has been probably the most disappointing year at the UK BO since 2019 after so much success starting the year with Spider-Man NWH and then with Top Gun Maverick. But having NWH 2022 as one of the biggest films of the year surely highlights the failure of this year’s BO as BO has been shared across a few films.
Surely, this shows that it can’t continue like this industry needs to change to find ways to get audiences to see a wider range of films. Rather than seeing films like Top Gun Maverick a dozen times via Cineworld Unlimited and Odeon Limitless. But as nothing has improved for the better since 2003, it’s unlikely anything will do, especially with the slate of films set for release in 2023. The majority will be all hype, no sustenance as big industry heralds their large openings, but then audiences quickly move on to the next shiny new thing opening the next weekend.
The problem is industry always believes its hype and thinks Black Panther 2 and Avatar 2 would be their saviour as No Time to Die and Spider-Man NWH were last year. But in 2018 Black Panther opened at a very different time as it was seen as the first Black superhero film while Avatar was a complete surprise to audiences in 2009 giving them a new cinema experience, but the sequel had a feeling of Déjà vu.
FDA website has a UK average of 2021 £7.47 while UKCA is £7.52 it will be interesting to see what the average price is for 2022 as the average increased by the second highest percentage for 21 years in 2010 after Avatar opened due to 3D surcharges. NATO has yet to publish a new average ticket price for the US since 2019 when it was $9.18.
At the start of the year with the strongest film slate of all the major studios (Black Panther 2, Doctor Strange 2, Thor: Love and Thunder, Strange World and Avatar: The Way of Water Disney was expected to be the #1 UK studio in 2022.
Universal Pictures and Disney are in a close battle for the #1 distributor in the UK it will all depend on how much Avatar 2 BO will be calculated as 2022 BO or 2023 as up to Sunday they were neck and neck with £205m.
Universal Pictures released 26 films from Universal, Focus Features and MGM; their big three Jurassic World Dominion, Minions: The Rise of Gru and Sing 2 and also had strong performances from a wide mix of films Nope, Downtown Abbey 2, The Bad Guys, The Black Phone, Ticket To Paradise and Belfast.
While Disney released more films than they have done recently (16) due to films from 20th Century Studios and Searchlight Pictures, it was filmed from Disney that underperformed this year from Lightyear and Strange World to two MCU films (Thor Love and Thunder and Black Panther Wakanda Forever not taking expected £40m+ and Doctor Strange 2 just squeezing past.
Warner Bros and Paramount Pictures are also neck and neck for third with Sony Pictures fifth with Spider-Man No Way Home 2022 taking about a third of their 2022 BO. All 5 studios will have taken £100m+ which is a positive for cinema as over the last decade Disney has had a stranglehold on UK BO in 2019 took almost 45% of the BO (including Fox titles). This year Disney has their strongest slate since 2019, but the three MCU films aren’t home bankers as they have been in recent years,
UK box office in detail
This weekend’s top 10 box office took £14,337,250 up 82.4% from last weekend’s £7,861,021: 1,774,412 admissions up 82.4% from 972,899
263rd biggest top 10 of the last 21 years (out of 1,083) between 08 November 2013 #1 Gravity £6,238,375 (43.5% of top 10) and 28 December 2001 #1 LOTR: Fellowship of the Rings £7,825,995 (54.8% of top 10) and 531st biggest inflation inflated between 25 April 2003 #1 Johnny English £2,279,100 (28.9% of top 10) and 23 March 2007 #1 300 £4,746,071 53% of top 10).
The top 3 took £13,009,736 90.7% of the top 10; Avatar: The Way of Water 53.3% (£7,643,764); Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody 23.2% (£3,325,458); Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical 14.2% (£2,040,514).
Taking 53.3% of the top 10 it’s the 214th highest percentage #1 between 01 July 2022 Minions: The Rise of Gru £10,424,758 (53.3% and 22 April 2011 Fast Five £5,332,096 (53.3%)
278th biggest admissions #1 (946,010) between 19 October 2012 Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted £6,030,904 (946,767) and 05 August 2005 Charlie and the Chocolate Factory £4,441,851 (943,068).
Up 14.4% from 2021; (£12,206,285); The King’s Man (£3,496,627); Titane (£121,920); The Electrical Life of Louis Wain (£85,763); Cinderella – Met Opera 2022 (£23,039); #1 Spider-Man No Way Home £6,055,345 3rd week (49.6% of top 10);
Up 15,645% from 2020 (£91,059); #1 Wonder Woman 1984 £72,674; #2 Home Alone £3,840; #3 Come Away £3,245; #1 Wonder Woman 1984 £72,674 214 screens 2nd weekend (79.8% of top 10)
Down 39.8% from 2019 (£23,799,781); Little Women (£3,578,877); Spies in Disguise (£1,487,638); Playing with Fire (£762,850); #1 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker £9,311,240 2nd week 741 screens 55% drop (39.1% of top 10)
Down 13.3% from 2018: (£16,539,374); Mary Poppins Returns (£8,181,541); The Nutcracker – Bolshoi Ballet 2018 (£258,038); #1 Mary Poppins Returns £8,181,541 1st week 735 screens (39.4% of the top 10)
Down 51.6% from 2017: (£29,632,571); Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (£8,154,548); Pitch Perfect 3 (£4,334,525); Ferdinand (£3,644,748); #1 Star Wars: The Last Jedi £10,158,640 2nd week 706 screens 64% drop (35.3% of top 10)
Up 15% from 2016: (£12,473,395); Passengers (£2,418,976); Ballerina (£1,094,317); It’s a Wonderful Life (Re-release) (£130,016); #1 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story £5,652,730 2nd week 680 screens 67% drop (45.3% of the top 10)
Down 18.2% from 2015; (£17,525,083); Snoopy and Charlie Brown: A Peanuts Movie (£3,639,383); Daddy’s Home (£1,628,219); In the Heart of the Sea (£570,543); #1 Star Wars: The Force Awakens £10,164,805 2nd week 665 screens (58% of top 10)
Down 12.5% from 2014: (£16,382,437); Exodus: Gods and Kings (£2,607,453); Annie (£2,310,453); Unbroken (£656,991); Big Eyes (£135,582); #1 The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies £4,249,226 3rd week 601 screens 21% drop (25.9% of top 10)
Down 19.8% from 2013: (£17,885,304); Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues (£4,545,934); Walking with Dinosaurs (£982,023); The Harry Hill Movie (£549,736); Moshi Monsters: The Movie (£334,748); Sleeping Beauty – Bolshoi 2011 (£86,942); American Hustle platform (£39,595); #1 The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug £5,358,380 2nd week 594 screens 43% drop (30% of top 10)
Down 2.6% from 2012 (£14,717,807); Life of Pi (£3,610,604); Pitch Perfect (£952,107); Home Alone (Re: 2012) (£43,544); West of Memphis (£1,103); #1 The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey £5,979,241 2nd week 601 screens 48% drop (40.6% of top 10)
Down 16.3% from 2011 (£17,137,638); Gulliver’s Travels (£7,028,747); Love and Other Drugs (£1,606,253); The Way Back (£1,327,650); #1 Gulliver’s Travels £7,028,747 1st week 497 screens
Down 6.8% from 2010: (£15,390,090); Did You Hear About The Morgans (£1,155,060); Post Grad (£12,486); #1 Avatar £5,940,479 (£8,067,071 inflated) 493 screens 2nd week split over 3 weeks (38.6% of top 10)
Up 20.7% from 2008; (£11,872,842); The Spirit (£1,351,370); The Reader (£671,064); Che: Part One (£429,836); Sisterhood of the Travelling Pants 2 (£41,305); #1 Yes Man 2nd week £2,223,950 (18.7% of top 10)
Down 32.6% from 2007; (£21,258,964); I Am Legend (£11,009,365); Balls of Fury (£638,761); The Kite Runner (£468,592); #1 I Am Legend £11,009,365 1st week 440 screens (51.8% of top 10)
Down 5.9% from 2006: (£15,231,586); Night at the Museum (£7,690,312); It’s a Boy Girl Thing (£1,141,268); #1 Night at the Museum £7,690,312 1st week 488 screens (50.5% of top 10)
Up 21.8% from 2005 (£11,774,274); Cheaper By The Dozen 2 (£2,287,967); The Producers (£1,311,179); Just Like Heaven (£1,201,381) #1 The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe £2,994,438 3rd week 2nd 1 over 3 weeks 527 screens 41% drop (47.7% of top 10)
Up 111.4% from 2004 (£6,781,968); Without a Paddle (£595,249); #1 The Incredibles £1,296,3333rd week split over 7 weeks 485 screens (19.11% of top 10)
Up 18.6% from 2003 (£12,084,935); Peter Pan (£1,359,372); Cold Mountain (£380,994); Out of Time (£311,508); #1 Lord of the Rings: Return of the King £7,149,427 2nd week 59.2% of top 10)
Up 8.2% from 2002 (£13,253,300); Chicago (platform) (£113,386); Blood Work (£61,053); #1 Lord of the Rings: Two Towers £8,177,801 2nd week 499 screens 37% (61.7% of top 10)
Down 0.4% from 2001 (£14,285,925); The Mean Machine (£1,573,594); Serendipity (£635,042); #1 The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Rings £7,825,995 2nd week 470 screens 29% drop (54.8% of top 10);
Next weekend 2022 (£8,716,739); Licorice Pizza (£879,373); The 355 (£367,148); Boiling Point (£79,117); #1 Spider-Man No Way Home £4,477,415 4th week 26% drop 680 screens (51.4% of top 10)
US Box Office
- Avatar: The Way of Water – Disney
Up 6% in its third weekend taking $67.44m and $425.52m
3rd biggest third weekend between Avatar ($68.49m) and Black Panther ($67.4m); Spider-Man: No Way Home #7 ($56.02m); Top Gun: Maverick #11 ($51.85m); Rogue One: A Star Wars Story #12 ($49.6m);
24th biggest film between The Dark Knight Rises and Shrek 2; 74th biggest inflation inflated between Spider-Man 3 and How the Grinch Stole Christmas; 2nd biggest 2022 between Top Gun: Maverick and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; 9th biggest sci-fi between Star Wars: A New Hope and E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial.
Avatar 2 was always going to increase from the second weekend (a two-day weekend due to Christmas Day on Sunday). The last two weeks of December are the most lucrative of the year with every day apart from Christmas Day potentially a Saturday at the BO. Bank Holiday Monday BO was £2.8m but would expect a big drop Tuesday-Friday (£1m+) as the long-running time means unlikely to see it after school or work.
Avatar 2 comparisons with other films only can start this weekend. In the US Avatar dropped 26.6% in the fourth weekend, The Force Awakens 53.1%, Rogue One 55.5%, The Last Jedi 54.8%, and The Rise of Skywalker 52.3%.
All of those except The Last Jedi didn’t have any competition but Avatar 2 has with M3gan likely to open similar to Insidious: The Last Key in 2018 with $30m+. Avatar 2 dropped 52.8% in its second weekend more than TFA’s 39.8% and Avatar’s 1.8% expect a 55%+ fourth weekend drop which could be enough to see M3gan open #1.
A similar is likely next weekend in the UK with Empire of Light opening Monday the 9th and M3gan opening Friday with Avatar 2 seeing upwards of 50% drops over the next two weeks. Taking £3.5m-4m this weekend and £1.8m-£2.5m the week after could see it drop to third behind Empire of Light (£2m+ 7 days) and M3gan (£2m+)
As with Avengers Endgame (after taking $1.2bn in 5 days) Avatar 2 should be looking at $3bn+ 13 years on from Avatar with ticket prices up to 100% more than they were in 2009.
But as I’ve said before it doesn’t matter how much Avatar 2 takes as with Disney Star Wars films it’s about merchandise, Disney took $2.9bn last year from worldwide BO but almost $60bn in merchandise.
Avatar films are a multi-billion-dollar global marketing campaign for the World of Pandora at DisneyWorld to quote Yoghurt “Merchandising is where the real money from the movie is made”.
Admissions at DisneyWorld increased by 30%+ in 2018 when Pandora World opened with 58m visitors each spending $150+ a day $9bn+ then probably the same again spent on merchandise and then even more on food and accommodation. With the release of Avatar 2 and its sequels, visitor numbers will surely double over the next decade.
No other studio can exploit IPs like Disney, probably why Fox never acquired Lucasfilm and why Viacom rejected the acquisition of Marvel before Disney. The Cinema industry gets caught up in the hype with these films, but they aren’t films they are properties with theatrical just the start of the journey that will last decades to come.
It was similar to when the home video market was huge, theatrical studios spent the money, but home entertainment was where they made the money. With exhibitors focusing on gimmick formats over the last decade like ScreenX, 4DX, PLF and recliners they have played directly into the hands of Disney as this has made watching these films in cinemas feel like being on a theme park ride rather than a cinema. This is probably why old-fashioned cinema films are struggling to find an audience as the younger audience aren’t interested in seeing films in cinemas anymore, they want experiences.
The average ticket price for a 3D PLF is $18.28 compared to $12.53 2D while last week’s average was $12.04 according to EntTelligence research (NATO has other ideas of the average being $9.18).
The difference between this year and 2009 was Avatar held very strongly on its third weekend down only 9.4% taking $68.49m (and $352.11m) but 6 other films also strongly performed Sherlock Holmes #2 $36.61m; Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel $35.2m #3; It’s Complicated #4 $18.8m; The Blind Side #5 $11.9m; Up in the Air #6 $10.72m; The Princess and the Frog $9.8m #7.
It took 45 days for Avatar to overtake Titanic to become the biggest film globally $2.039bn and went on to take $749.76m in the US (held #1 for 7 weeks; Titanic was #1 for 15 weeks), $1.99bn internationally and $2.743bn worldwide. It remained the biggest film globally until Avengers Endgame overtook it after 91 days of release, but after Avengers Endgame opened globally with $1.2bn over its opening weekend many expected it to overtake Avatar many weeks earlier and take over $3bn. Avatar retained its #1 global status after it was re-released in China in March 2021. (Avatar took $262m in China).
Took $186.7m from 52 territories $957m total and $1.37bn worldwide; China $152.8m (took 24% $35.7m from IMAX); France $95.1m; Korea $74.9m; Germany $67.2m; UK $54.2m; India $49.3m; Mexico $37.3m; Australia $34.3m; Italy $30.5m; Spain $28.3m.
Europe took $428m with 70% from 3D/PLF; Asia-Pacific $424M 70% 3D/PLF; Latin America $103m 53% 3D/PLF.
Took $28.6m in the third weekend worldwide from IMAX and $152.2m total; fourth biggest IMAX film worldwide after Avatar, Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Avengers: Endgame. Internationally $96.9m (3rd biggest IMAX after Avengers Endgame and Avatar).
Avatar 2 is the 9th film to take $100m+ worldwide from IMAX. 2009’s Avatar took $100m+ from IMAX worldwide from 261 screens, The Dark Knight from 109 screens and then Gravity from 330 screens. Avatar 2 opened on 1,543 IMAX screens worldwide with an average price of $20.
Avatar 2 is performing similarly to Avatar in most territories apart from China and Japan while not being legally released in Russia (the first film in Russia was the 6th biggest international territory $116m)
Avatar took $133.5m in its third weekend internationally from 52 territories (didn’t open in China until Jan 4th and Italy Jan 15th) $670.2m total and $1.022bn worldwide. (it was then 4th biggest film worldwide after Titanic ($1.84bn), The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” ($1.12bn) and The Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest ($1.07bn).
While Spider-Man No Way Home took $78.3m internationally from 61 territories in its third weekend $759m total and $1.37bn worldwide ($83.1m worldwide from IMAX) 72% of $1.91bn total. If Avatar 2 was to hold similarly it will take $2bn.
13th biggest worldwide between Frozen II and Avengers: Age of Ultron; 2nd biggest 2022 film between Top Gun: Maverick and Jurassic World: Dominion; 4th biggest sci-fi worldwide between Jurassic World and Star Wars: The Last Jedi.
- Puss in Boots: The Last Wish – Universal Pictures
Up 35% in the second weekend $16.81m and $61.22m
149th biggest animated film between Storks and Spies in Disguise; 1,281st biggest film between Waiting to Exhale and The Secret of My Success; 2,116th biggest inflated between Black Sheep and Little Nicky; 28th biggest 2022 film between The Woman King and Halloween Ends; 170th biggest Universal Pictures film between Dante’s Peak and The Secret of My Success.
2011’s Puss In Boots dropped 3% in the second weekend $33.05m (in October) and $75.52m taking $149.26m and $554.98m worldwide. It was a spin-off to Shrek. The five Shrek extended universe films took $1.48bn in the US and $3.65bn worldwide and the 41 Dreamworks Animation films have taken $6bn in the US and $16bn worldwide since 1998’s Antz.
2001’s Shrek dropped 0.3% by $42.48m and $99.01m of $268.16m and $488.35m WW
2004’s Shrek 2 dropped 33.2% by $72.17m and $236.9m of $441.22m and $928.76m WW
2007’s Shrek the Third dropped 36.4% by $53.03m and $203.37m of $322.71m and $813.36m WW
2010’s Shrek Forever After dropped 38.9% by $43.31m and $133.06m of $238.73m and $752.6m WW
Took $22.5m from 53 territories and $69.51m total and $136.54m worldwide; 169th biggest animated film worldwide between Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga’Hoole and The Pirates! Band of Misfits; 1,320th biggest worldwide between Remember the Titans and Where the Crawdads Sing; 35th biggest 2022 between Scream and Where the Crawdads Sing; 175th biggest Universal Pictures between The First Purge and American Made.
- Babylon – Paramount Pictures
Dropped 28% in the second weekend taking $2.61m and $10.02m
After receiving mixed reviews (55% Rotten Tomatoes) and C+ CinemaScore would normally expect a film to drop upwards of 70% in its second weekend, but as seen with 2019’s Cats dropping 27.2% taking $4.82m and $17.81m films hold far stronger than they would normally the weekend after Christmas. But next weekend Babylon will likely have a similar drop as Cats had in its fourth weekend at 78.7%.
Hard to compare Babylon’s second weekend to Damien Chazelle’s other films as both 2014’s Whiplash and 2016’s La La Land had platform openings that took many weeks to go to the widest release, 16 weeks for Whiplash and 5 weeks for La La Land.
While 2018’s First Man dropped 48% taking $8.32m and $29.76m of $44.93m and $105.71m WW
Surprisingly, Paramount Pictures signed a first-look deal with Damien Chazelle in December, but studios often sign talent to these deals but end up making films for other studios as was the case with Jerry Bruckheimer moving to Paramount in 2013 in exchange for Indiana Jones rights, but only produced two films Gemini Man and Top Gun Maverick.
Babylon is the latest adult-targeted drama film that has struggled to find an audience in cinemas over recent months, but unlike Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans, it was more expected for Babylon after Paramount announced in October the film would open wide on December 23rd.
Opens internationally in January
- Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody – Sony Pictures
Down 16% in the second weekend $3.93m and $14.52m
Other musician dramas include
2019’s Rocketman dropped 46.3% by $13.81m and $50.31m of $96.36m and $195.32m WW
2018’s Bohemian Rhapsody dropped 38.9% by $31.2m and $100.36m of $216.66m and $910.8m WW
2018’s A Star Is Born dropped 33.7% by $28.44m and $94.6m of $215.33m and $436.23m WW
While it was never likely to hold similar to those biopics it should at least held stronger than 2021’s House of Gucci dropped 51.5% by $7m and $22.1m of $53.8m and $153.26m WW
But again, just highlights the problem with BO since cinemas reopened audiences aren’t coming out to see films like I Wanna Dance with Somebody as they would have done pre-pandemic. As only need to look at BO from the first week in January 2020 when were 6 films taking $10m (Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker; Jumanji: The Next Level Little Women; Frozen 2; The Grudge and Spies in Disguise).
Weekend BO $95.72m was down 43% from 2017 the last 53-week year ($166.38m) and close to 2000s $98.77m when Stuart Little 2 #1 $16m. Until the industry realises “saviour” films don’t work as audiences need to see a wide mix of films nothing will improve. Normally this time of the year audiences will go to the cinema far more and see a wider mix of films.
While also normally this week would have several films opening on platform before expanding in January but this time there was only A Man Called Otto #18 opening $58k from 4 screens which looks like it will struggle to find a wider audience as so many of the other adult dramas have since cinemas reopened.
The film opens 30 years after Whitney Huston starred in The Bodyguard dropped 33.1% in the second weekend and $40.32m of $122.04m and $411.04m WW
Took $8.3m from 44 territories and $13.1m worldwide
UK Box Office Top 10
UK Box Office Preview
The fourth weekend of Avatar’s The Way of Water is key to see if it will have the legs of the original film, unlike other films when the second-weekend hold has become more important than its opening weekend. Can only compare Avatar 2 BO with other films opening the weekend before Christmas as the two weeks from December 16th are the most lucrative of the year.
As seen with Avatar 2 taking £8.85m Mon-Thurs in the first week and £12.3m in its second Mon-Thurs (while Top Gun Maverick took £12.2m in the first Mon-Thurs and £6.25m in second Mon-Thurs) This. Avatar 2 will likely see a big drop from January 2nd (Bank Holiday Monday) to Tues-Thurs as with schools and employees back the lengthy running time makes it too long for most to see after school and work.
Avatar 2 will likely drop about 50% taking £3.7m-£4.5m taking about £55m by Sunday and with Empire of Light opening Monday and M3gan opening next Friday could see it drop similar amount next weekend.
The biggest new release is Andre Rieu In Dublin 2023 Event Cinema, the concerts have been very popular in cinemas since 2014.
Event Cinema attracts an older audience who have been slow to return to cinemas since they reopened but would have expected by now 15 months later Andre Rieu’s Maastricht Summer Concert to open similar pre-lockdown especially as it opened on 677 screens with tickets £20+ and had encore screenings.
The last Andre Rieu concert to open before COVID 70 Years Young opened in January 2020 with £1,717,074 #6 from 579 screens and Andre Rieu In Dublin 2023 will likely open with £1m+; has screenings on Sat/Sun with tickets about £22.99.
In 2019 Event Cinema took £45.3m in the UK about 3.3% of the year’s box office up from 2.4% in 2018 but dropped to £6.7m in 2021 taking 1.1% of total BO.
The other new releases are likely to struggle to find an audience
Elvis was a strong performer in June last year taking £27.5m but A Man Called Otto is more likely to open similar to A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood £493,770 and A Hologram for the King £378,759. His films have taken almost £300m at the BO since 1988 and £500m inflated. Tom Hanks next stars in Wes Anderson’s ensemble Asteroid City opening in the summer with a likely Cannes premiere.
A Man Called Otto is similar to 1994’s Grumpy Old Men (opened £198,320 #3 from 139 screens taking £641,113); 2003’s About Schmidt opened £757,325 taking £2,925,430 (£5,323,755 inflated); 2013’s Nebraska opened £151,332 #10 from 122 screens taking £344,756; 2019’s The Upside opened £681,422 #8 from 312 screens taking £1,483,007
January normally starts with some of the biggest award contenders opening but this year’s films Empire of Light (9th Jan), Tar (13th Jan), Babylon (20th Jan) and The Fabelmans (27th Jan) are unlikely to attract wide audiences.
Opening in two weeks
- That Time I Got Reincarnated As A Slime -Sony Pictures (Wednesday)
The latest Japanese anime film the last One-Piece Film: Red opened in November at £559,623; Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero opened at £663,290; Jujutsu Kaisen 0 opened with £825,529
2021’s My Hero Academia: World Heroes Mission opened £218,956 #12 from 261 screens
2021’s Demon Slayer The Movie opened (£693,081 including £389,220 from previews) #4 from 336 screens (10 days after cinemas reopened) taking £1,357,821.
2003’s Spirited Away took £919,307 after opening #13 with £152,504 from 51 screens (didn’t expand further).
2015’s Dragon Ball Z: Resurrection ‘F’ released by National Amusements opening #11 taking £151,087 from 74 screens and National Amusements released several Anime films in 2017; 2019’s Dragon Ball Super: Broly opened #7 with £851,508 from 188 screens.
2020’s re-release of Akira opened #3 with £201,124 from 109 screens only weeks after UK cinemas reopened after the first lockdown, its re-release had been planned to have a 300+ opening but Cineworld/Picturehouse closed their 127 cinemas days before it was to open.
While National Amusements released Belle in February 2020 opened #9 with £152,287 from 147 screens.
These films are very front-loaded
- Babylon – Paramount Pictures
Epic period comedy-drama starring Brad Pitt, Margot Robbie, Diego Calva, Jean Smart, Jovan Adepo, and Li Jun Li and written and directed by Damien Chazelle.
Paramount acquired rights in November 2019, it was a surprising film for the studio to acquire as they are one of the most risk-averse studios, but the smallest slates of the majors over the last decade have been more aggressive in acquiring projects over the last few years.
Paramount released 7 films in the UK last year (taking £150m) and currently only has 6 set for release this year. For most of last year, Paramount were the biggest studio in the US but dropped down to third (taking $1.3bn with Universal #1 $1.55bn and Disney #2 $1.35m) after only releasing Smile and Babylon after the huge success of Top Gun Maverick, had they released a couple more films they could have been #1 studio for the first time since 2011.
After Babylon underperformed in the US analysts believed that it could perform stronger internationally as Damien Chazelle’s other films have done, but poor dating will hurt Babylon as it did with 2018’s First Man. First Man had received critical acclaim after premiering at the Toronto Film Festival but opened a week after A Star Is Born which was always likely to affect it as was the case in 2015 when Robert Zemeckis’s The Walk opened the week after Ridley Scott’s The Martian.
What I find crazy is that studios now have more data than they ever had to select the right release dates for films, but dating has gotten worse over recent years, maybe it’s because all studios are using the same data and coming up with the same results. I was always fascinated watching from the projection room at Fox when they had their European presentations amazed at some of the dating decisions, dating has only gotten worse over the last 20 years as films are now globally dated rather than locally.
While films like Babylon do often perform stronger internationally the damage was done with mixed reviews and soft opening lowering studio marketing spending internationally and exhibitors’ interest in the film.
La La Land opened January 2017 with £6,596,256 #1 from 606 screens (coincidentally 5th weekend of Rogue One £1,764,104) held strongly in second weekend down 34% £4,373,249 taking £14,907,148 50% of £29,816,588 total (taking 4.52x opening)
In comparison 2018’s First Man opened #4 at £2,415,330 behind second weekends of A Star is Born at £3,083,089; Venom £3,002,032; Johnny English Strikes Again at £2,900,426 despite having most of the IMAX screens. Dropped to #7 in the second weekend £1,324,867 down 45% £5,115,235 (while A Star Is Born remained at #1 down only 7% £2,883,000) 69.5% of £7,360,906 (3.05x opening). It always surprised me First Man wasn’t released in the summer of 2019 as that was the 50th anniversary of the space landing and Universal Pictures had huge success with Apollo 13 also a summer release.
2016’s Whiplash opened £573,546 #7 from 249 screens, down 34% in the second weekend £376,485 #10 and £1,280,311 of £1,622,987.
Comparisons have been made that Cats opened far stronger in the UK (£3,207,471) and held far stronger taking (£11,907,188) opened at the sweet spot of UK BO at the start of the lucrative two weeks of Christmas when even Monster Trucks can find an audience, it’s a very different story in the middle of January.
It was reported in Deadline that Babylon with an $80m budget will need to take $250m worldwide to be profitable which is surely yet another death nail in original adult dramas as Babylon is just the latest adult prestigious film that has struggled to a wide audience in cinemas.
- Alice, Darling – Lionsgate
Thriller starring Anna Kendrick, Kaniehtiio Horn, Charlie Carrick, and Wunmi Mosaku and directed by Mary Nighy
Had the world premiere at the Toronto Film Festival receiving positive reviews (82% Rotten Tomatoes). It’s Anna Kendrick’s first major film role since 2018’s A Simple Favour after receiving starring in TV shows Love Life and Dummy and vocally in Trolls 2.