After Coronavirus Nobody Knows Anything

William Goldman famously wrote “Nobody knows anything…… Not one person in the entire motion picture field knows for a certainty what’s going to work. Every time out it’s a guess and, if you’re lucky, an educated one.” and those words ring true now as the industry awaits what will happen after Coronavirus outbreak is over.

Many far more knowledgeable people with access to much more data than me have written much about what might happen but it’s all conjecture as there has never been a situation like this before. Cinemas in the UK closed for the first time since September 3^rd, 1939 after World War 2 was declared, but most reopened within a week as the government realised that the nation needed the entertainment to keep up its spirits.

81 years later people turned to stream services Netflix and Amazon saw massive demand, which saw them cut the streaming quality in Europe for 30 days. Whilst on March 24^th the day after the lock-down in the UK Disney+ launched (for some time have thought Disney UK have a deal with the man upstairs as the weather is always poor when they open a major film (but sunny and hot when rivals open) and launched Disney+ day after Coronavirus UK lock-down and the day after Netflix UK mysteriously crashes).

Since March studios have delayed many films die for release between March and July including No Time To Die, Peter Rabbit, A Quiet Place 2, Mulan, Minions: The Rise of Gru and Wonder Woman 1984.

As soon as cinemas shut down on March 18^th studios is releasing early on VOD the films that were playing in cinemas just before closure, exhibitors didn’t have an issue with as cinemas shut for probably over 12 weeks and by that time it would be summer with far bigger films opening.

What is surprising is that many of the films that were released in January and February including 1917 and Parasite are still being forced to play out their theatrical window despite there being no cinemas open to show these films. Surely the UK theatrical window for all films should have been voided as soon as cinemas shut, and all films released on VOD immediately as especially with 1917 and Parasite which have been illegally available online since the start of the year?

Exhibitors, however, weren’t happy when Universal Pictures announced Trolls World Tour would be available on VOD same day as cinemas (this was announced before all cinemas shut). Universal Pictures probably made that decision due to marketing and promotions campaigns tied to the films April release date and having at the time Minions: The Rise of Gru dated for July so would have limited options to move to another date. Probably if Universal Pictures had known earlier than production on Minions: The Rise of Gru was going to be delayed they might have moved the release of Trolls World Tour to July.

What was most surprising is while there might have been many marketing campaigns and promotions tied to Trolls World Tour they were nothing to the many Sony Pictures had tied to Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway as its release was on March 27^th was tied to Easter holidays and a huge marketing campaign with Cadbury’s which was running from January to Easter Sunday (between Mother’s Day and Easter Sunday the confectionery marketing in the UK is worth nearly £300m) Cadbury’s had a £6m Easter egg marketing campaign with much of that tied to Peter Rabbit.

Sony Pictures must have surely considered having a VOD release for Peter Rabbit 2, but the first film was one of their biggest films at the UK box office taking £41,067,757 (67^th biggest film in the UK ever) and took $115m in the US and $351m worldwide. After Sony Pictures lost James Bond rights Peter Rabbit: The Runaway was likely to be their biggest film of the year in the UK, moving to August the film still has a chance to be as successful months after all the chocolate eggs have been eaten.

International exhibitors were very slow to react even though they could see how China and the rest of Asia were dealing with Coronavirus as surely the rest of the world knew Coronavirus would go global. Only need to look back in 1918 to see how the Spanish Flu went global affecting almost every country in the world except for Australia as they implemented a quarantine. Spanish Flu took a week to cross the Atlantic by ship a century ago, but Coronavirus only took a day by air.

The one advantage global cinema industry has is they can see how China deals with cinema reopening, that said international exhibitors didn’t repeat the same draconian measures China took shutting down all cinemas at the start of the Coronavirus outbreak even though it was just before their New Year.

No singling out cinema industry in failing to be prepared for Coronavirus as most countries outside of China didn’t seem to be prepared despite having two months warning and they must have realised it wasn’t going to just be the Chinese virus, it was going to be a global epidemic likely to infect millions around the world killing many. It was of course much easier for China to deal with it as they locked down Wuhan on the 23^rd January which will be partially lifted in two weeks’ time, but in the free world governments found it much harder to implement such draconian measures, the government were accused of delaying shutdowns.

Over the last decade, studios have been wanting the theatrical window to change, in October 2011 Universal Pictures announced plans to release Tower Heist on Premium VOD three weeks after the film opened for $59.99. Facing boycotts from exhibitors they backed down saying at the time “Universal continues to believe that the theatre experience and a PVOD window are business models that can coincide and thrive, and we look forward to working with our partners in exhibition to find a way to experiment in this area in the future,”

In 2015 Paramount Pictures announced early VOD plans for Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension and Scouts Guide To The Zombie Apocalypse to release films on VOD a week after the films dropped below 1,000 screens. Again exhibitors rejected the idea and both films flopped at the box office.

Paramount’s early VOD made much sense for me as it was in exhibitors interest to screen successful films for longer, they already pull flops from their screens within two weeks after release, so why can’t those flops go to VOD early? If the theatrical window was more flexible it would mean a flop would be on VOD within 4 weeks, but a hit would still play for over 12 weeks before going to VOD.

Over the years after there were regular discussions by studios to want to launch VOD but the one studio that was holding out was Disney and without Disney, the other studios didn’t have the power to go to exhibitors and demand changes.

20 years ago most films would play wide for their full theatrical window but nowadays films are opening bigger than ever but then taking 90% of their total box office within 4 weeks, even the massive Disney properties, while most other films are played out within 6 weeks. Now with the growth of Asian markets and illegal streaming sites, good quality pirates are available online within a month.

Cinema is often seen as their own worst enemy as seen with Parasite taking over $30m in the US after being released on digital and after being widely available illegally online for months, if it’s a film audiences want to see in the cinema they will see it in the cinema.

I’ve always thought a flexible window similar to what Paramount suggested in 2015 films would be released on VOD the week after a film drops below 1,000 screens. This would mean flops would be on VOD within a month but hits would play longer as its in exhibitors interest to keep them in cinemas longer so Jumanji 2 would be released on VOD next weekend.

Over the next few weeks and months, there will be a lot of crystal ball glazing as companies try to predict what will happen when cinemas reopen but as the industry has never had to deal with a global shutdown of cinemas ever for over a century it’s all guesswork.

While some expect people will rush back to the cinema after being cooped up for a few months, for the people who didn’t see Coronavirus as something they need to worry about and went on doing what they do they will rush back but everyone else will be much more nervous.

Tim Richards boss of cinema chain Vue International recently said “Families, couples, individuals are being tied up at home for weeks or months now,” he says. “When it is over there will be a demand to get out like we have never seen in history. There is no scenario after lock-down [where] people will say ‘I’m not going out, I’m staying in to watch Netflix’.”

This does depend on how exhibitor plans their reopening of cinemas, as on Monday, March 16^th Zhongying Golden Palm Cinema in Urumqi reopened but no one came on its first day. A week later 507 cinemas reopened in remote and coastal regions where there hadn’t been any new Coronavirus cases recorded for more than a month, the total box office was less than $2,000.

Shanghai was set to re-open 205 cinemas on Saturday, but the Chinese government ordered on Friday all cinemas to close with no time on when they might reopen. There were strict guidelines in place for how cinemas should maintain strict virus prevention procedures during operations. They included cinema-goers to wear a mask, have their temperature taken before entering the cinema and to show a “health code” that shows if they have had the virus. The cinemas would have seat separation policies and have at least 20-minute gap between screenings so auditoriums could be disinfected between performances.

Before the shutdown, I did ask why cinemas hadn’t brought in any safety measures as cinemas haven’t been the most hygienic places, two years ago Watchdog found drinks from three of the UK’s largest cinema chains (Cineworld, Odeon and Vue) were found to contain very high levels of bacteria including traces of salmonella and Listeria. The exhibitors rejected the findings and said they take hygiene “incredibly seriously” and have robust cleaning procedures in place.

While many cinema-goers didn’t wash their hands after going to the toilet (which could spread E.coli) then they would touch the toilet door, the auditorium doors, safety railings, armrests and often put their feet on the seat in front. It only takes one person to do that to cause a problem. “The average person touches his or her face three to five times every waking minute. In the meantime, we’re touching doorknobs, water fountains, each other.”

Did suggest simple things like hand sanitizers inside and out of auditoriums and to keep toilet and auditorium doors open while also having seat separation policies.
When cinemas do reopen exhibitors can’t expect things to go immediately back to how they used to be there will be a lot of nervousness so slow reopens will be needed and as with Chinese reopening showing Avengers and Avatar at reduced prices other countries need to do similar. As until studios feel cinema-goers are back in numbers they won’t risk opening a tent-pole, so will be interesting to see what the canary in the coalmine film will be chosen.

Cinemas in China were slowly reopening after 70 days closed, had US and UK cinemas kept to that timetable they would be slowly reopening over Memorial Day weekend. The difference between China and the rest of the world China immediately shut down all 70,000 cinemas, while the rest of the world didn’t react till much later and hadn’t implemented any additional safety measures until weeks before cinemas closed, this will surely mean international cinemas won’t open before July.

Warner Bros have recently said they are keeping their July release date for Tenet despite delaying several other summer releases including In Wonder Woman 1984 and In the Heights, while other studios have yet to move The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge on the Run, Artemis Fowl, Candyman, Greyhound, Soul and Top Gun: Maverick (all are likely to be delayed). The one positive distributors have is with Euro 2020 delayed for a year if cinemas do reopen in July the last 5 months could be very strong.

While cinema is vitally important for exhibitors as the associated industries in the scheme of things going to the cinema for many is the bottom of the list of importance so the reopening of cinemas and audience coming back to them will take time. This is similar to sport while many football fans are eager for the Premier League season to restart so Liverpool can win it for the first time in over 30 years most people believe that there are far more important things than football and the season should be cancelled.

When cinemas do reopen it should be part of the 125th anniversary of the first commercial cinema screening in Paris in December 1895, UK February 1896 and US April 1896.

25 years ago to celebrate the 100th anniversary of cinema in the UK we had National Cinema Day on Sunday, June 2nd all cinemas were £1, and millions came which saw a dramatic rise in admissions. Was repeated again in 1997, it was as successful but Pathe opened The Fifth Element the same weekend and believed lost £1m+ as tickets were only £1, but never became an annual event as it still is in many countries like Ireland who have the highest admissions per person in Europe.

1985 was British Film Year, the aim was to get more people to go to the cinema and to boost and promote British cinema. In 1984 annual admissions were 54 million in 1985 they increased by 16 million to 72 million and over the next 17 years, UK admissions increased steadily. A similar national marketing campaign could be done to celebrate the 125^th anniversary of cinema and get people back into the cinema-going habit as it will take time for many people to get back into the habit and also feel safe going to the cinema.

Hopefully over the next few months exhibitors and studios can come together and work together whilst also exhibitors realise the current antiquated theatrical won’t work anymore and there needs to be a more flexible window.

It would be great to think the industry could build and grow and not just go back to their old-fashioned ways. The cinema should be the place people get to see films first on the biggest screens with the best quality sound and picture and great customer service.