“Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition!”

Was recently told my opinion have no data to back me up. but as cinema industry has never had to deal with this issue for over a century, I would suggest all those people claiming to be experts are ultracrepidarians, as I wrote in my last blog “Nobody Knows Anything”. There have been hundreds of articles written by many far more knowledgeable industry experts than me all with far more data to back them up. Still, it’s all conjecture until July 17th no one knows how many people will go to the cinema.

Would also suggest that maybe its time to open up and listen to other people’s views and ideas as nothing should be surely off the table. In my previous blog did suggest the reopen of cinema should be centred around the 125^th anniversary of commercial cinema which starts in Paris in December, London in February and New York in May 2021.

I did think if the reopening of cinema was properly handled it could see a dramatic rise in cinema attendance but fear that nothing will change when cinemas reopen as the industry won’t change unless the management at the top changes that could bring in new ideas, but the problem is the industry is set in their ways and is scared of change along with being in denial that change is needed.

Only need to see the growth of streaming music and films over the last decade to see the industry should be open to new ideas. Likewise, the US was very slow to launch subscription cinema despite Cineworld having it in the UK for over 20 years, they waited till Moviepass launched showing them cinemagoers wanted it.

Experts might have more data, but that didn’t stop them walking into this blindfolded. As ever since the first case of Coronavirus outside China in January, the industry should have prepared for what they would do. But rather than implementing safety measures in late February after the first deaths in the UK as other countries had done, these experts waited on government guidance.

While surely all experts will be slightly biased towards the outcome they want as that experts as they know what they are talking about over how the industry will cope with life after Coronavirus. Would possibly suggest listening to experts is one of the reasons why the industry is in its current state it’s in. As likes of streaming have grown dramatically over the last decade, the cinema industry is under the belief that people will always go to the cinema, so they don’t need to work as hard as they previously did to attract audiences.

Whenever a studio opens a film, there is risk attached so studios will always try to limit the risk choosing the best release date, marketing and publicity ahead of release.
The one advantage Tenet has is all the other summer films opening around it have been delayed. If cinemagoers do come back, it has very little competition so despite the 25% capacity it will play in many more screens to compensate. At the same time, the film regularly mentioned as the film that will reopen cinema after Coronavirus alongside.

Will cinemagoers going to watch Tenet be given a promotional Tenet oxygen mask to watch the film in cinemas as surely that will be the only way many will feel safe going to see it over its opening weekend. Many have said the film won’t have as big an open as previous Christopher Nolan films but it will have strong legs, but that all depends on if cinemagoers beyond the film younger audiences who think they are invincible and the fanboys.

While Tenet might be an original film, it is a Christopher Nolan film opening exactly ten years after Inception and his films since The Dark Knight Rises, Interstellar and Dunkirk have all opened strongly. Still, it doesn’t have the big-name stars as his other films or is about a historical event Dunkirk, which attracted much older audiences back to the cinema.

On May 1st Tenet release date is only 77 days way being a Christopher Nolan film he will be demanding that the film is screened in 200+ cinemas in film 70mm, 70mm IMAX and 35mm which will make it much harder to do with social distancing. While the practicalities of restarting the film distribution engine that has been shut down for over 12 weeks without having a canary in the coalmine makes no sense.

Would make more sense if Mulan was the first film as its marketing campaign was into fifth gear just before cinemas closed in March. The film had its US and UK premiere while many were surprised at the time after Chinese cinemas closed in January that Disney didn’t move its release earlier. In early April Disney delayed Jungle Cruise till summer 2021 moving Mulan into its place.

We will probably find out next week if Warner Bros are keeping Tenet’s July release date as would expect the second trailer released as they released the second trailer of Dunkirk in the first week of May in 2017.

While it’s understandable why exhibitors are eager to reopen cinemas as soon as possible, why is Warner Bros stubbornly keeping Tenet on July 17th when their lucrative October 2nd slot became vacant when Venom 2 was delayed to 2021.

As if they did delay Tenet Disney would surely also move Mulan opening the week after. It’s always a massive gamble to release a megamovie why the studio would add the extra pressure of being clueless over the audience who will come out to see it away from fanboys and Covidiots?

With California governor saying it will be months before cinemas reopen Warner decision will likely be taken out of their hands. My only thought is it’s out of their hands to release on July 17th and was a stipulation of Christopher Nolan’s contract to open on the 10th anniversary of Inception?

The Irish government published on May 2nd their five phases of easing restrictions for Coronavirus and predictably theatre and cinema were in the fifth phase with them allowed to open on August 10th. Each phase would be split by two weeks in case they cause growth in Corornavirus cases; June 29th cafes and restaurants will be allowed to reopen; July 20th shopping malls, places of worship, sporting venues and hotels reopening; along with cinemas and theatre on August 10th. All these dates are tentative depending on avoiding a second wave.

What makes little sense is box office analysts access to far more data than I have been predicting box office might not return to normal levels for up to 14 weeks. If cinemas were to reopen at the end of June normal box office wouldn’t return until the start of October.
Ever since the cinema shut down in March always thought October would be the best time to start releasing major films, with a soft and slow reopening at the end of August showing classic films and audience favourites from Harry Potter, Avengers to The Greatest Showman. In September release smaller films getting audiences feeling safe and then Tenet October 2nd.

While the cinema industry is vitally important for exhibitors, distributors, associated industries and of course employees it’s still only a tiny cog £1.27bn in the UK economy £2.21trillion. So reopen cinemas is very low on the list of importance of businesses to reopen.

Restaurants £39.9bn; Clothing £26bn; Horticulture £24bn; Pubs £22bn; Beauty £7.9bn; Coffee Shops £10.1bn ; Gym £5.1bn; Theatre £1.6bn; Cinema £1.27bn

There were reports in The Stage this week that the theatre industry in the UK is fearing that they might not be able to restart until next year, so really don’t understand why exhibitors really think they can reopen so quickly and in the opening so quickly will likely be affected by the second wave as was the case in China and see cinemas shut for longer.

This would surely start a chain reaction with studios that held back many of their tent-poles to later this year fearing a bottleneck when cinemas do reopen as there will be in November and December with far too many films opening and will move more films to stream and PVOD, this will surely fuel more anger with exhibitors.

This week Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced at the daily Coronavirus press conference that they will announce plans next week how they plan to slowly get the UK out of lockdown. Still, there is a lot of nervousness ‘coronaphobia’ seen in surveys done by Ipsos Mori and YouGov about going back to normal life and what that is.

Over the last week, there has been more traffic on the roads and more shops and takeaway restaurants reopening attracting mostly the covidiots that will ruin it for everyone else who has been sticking to the lock-down these past 6 weeks. It’s the covidiots many feel that will cause a second wave which will happen if the reopening is rushed and the second lockdown will be much harsher and longer as it was in China.

Many businesses aren’t even publicly talking about reopening plans apart from cinema and Premier League, showing how little respect either have for their customers or employees safety thinking only about the short-term loss rather than long term growth.

The problem is the cinema industry has been much more concerned about short-term rather than long term growth. I believe they took their feet off the peddle in 2002 and didn’t think they needed to do the work anymore, had they kept it in 5th gear rather than shifting down to 2nd do think admissions in the UK would be well over 200m as the industry had predicted would happen by 2000. As industry took the foot off streaming took off.

What amazes me is the cinema industry didn’t expect it, surely saw what happened to physical music sales killed by streaming and DVD and cinema was surely always going to be the next target for disruptors. This was one of the reasons why Sony brought Columbia in 1989 and Matsushita in 1990 brought Universal Pictures as they saw films as software to their hardware. The same was happening with streaming.

Was always amazed studios took so long launching streaming services as should have immediately launched when Netflix started making their own content in 2013 as they were weaning their dependency on studios and the power was shifting to Netflix from the studios.

J.K. Rowling wrote ‘Well, [bad] times bring out the best in some people and the worst in others’ some like Cineworld made their employees redundant days after they were shut down (before governmental bailout) while others like the boss of Kurt Geiger have lead by example

Have been many surveys offering different views on when people will feel comfortable going back to the cinema.

In early April EDO’s Social Distancing Moviegoing and TV Habits report surveyed 6,800 people between March 24-28

70% said they were likely to return to cinemas once they reopened; 45% highly likely; 45% said they would come back soon of that 20 % immediately and 25% a few days later, but 45% reported a few weeks and 11% waiting several months.

A survey by Showcase Cinemas on April 11th from 2,000 adults said 25% would go to the cinema to get within the first-week cinemas reopened; 27% within a month and one in 10 would visit the cinema on the first day they open.; surveys like these have to be taken with a pinch of salt as they were probably surveying cinema fans.

China reopened a few cinemas in Mid- March few came, this was always likely after the results of a survey published on March 18th.

62% would wait for Covid-19 containment before returning to cinemas; 30% would return to cinemas as soon as they reopen; 33% would wait till COVID-19 has been contained before returning; 29% said they would “wait for a while”.

The data from China is very similar to the data from US and India, the only surveys that were more positive about the speed of people coming back to the cinema were run by Showcase Cinema in the UK and NATO in the US, but they had ulterior motives. The problem with surveys is that the person running them can tailor the questioning to get the result their client wants as also can the data generated be spun to get the information the client wants as most will just read the headline.

Reading stories from exhibitors announcing plans to reopen cinema in the US from June is another example of the short-termism that has been at the heart of cinemas problems over the last decade or more. Industry looks for short-term gain rather than long term growth as it used to do in the late 80s.

Of course, it’s understandable after several months of cinemas being closed exhibitors will be eager to reopen cinemas. Still, they should surely be done slowly to avoid any potential second wave, which could do much more damage and see cinemas closed for much longer as the public will lose confidence that exhibitors care about their safety.

The West should have seen what was happening in China and Asia in January and February and prepared far better, not singling out cinema industry. Still, despite warnings that Coronavirus could be a global pandemic, they were far too slow to react. But now surely they should be looking to see how China is reopening to opt for similar plans, learning from China when they were opening cinemas far too soon, in early March and few came.

In mid-March 507 cinemas were going to reopen on March 23rd with strict safety measures including temperatures and immunity passports checked, seat separation, deep cleaning of auditoriums between screenings and face masks worn. Even those stringent safety measures weren’t enough, and those cinemas weren’t allowed to reopen. There are rumours Chinese cinemas won’t now open until October.

Seeing how China reopening cinemas too quickly the West should have undoubtedly realised the danger of opening their cinemas too soon,

For the last 6 weeks there has been much analysis, but where were these experts in January who should have predicted this was going to go global much quicker than Spanish Flu did a century ago (taking a week) due to air travel. The first case reported in China was on December 31st, and the early death was less than two weeks later, and by January 13th the first cases were reported In Thailand and on January 31st the first case was published in the UK.

While many will say, China was slow to react shutting all cinemas on January 23rd they were still far quicker than the rest of the world as by January 23rd Coronavirus had probably already gone global, and the damage had already been done. There are reports Beijing cinemas might reopen in June but they say its unlikely they would screen Tenet om July 17th as the cinemas will reopen slowly across the country.

All countries and US states are reopening their cinemas at different times but the problem will be a lack of new content for these cinemas as studios won’t be releasing any new content until California and New York are reopened. So the question is what will these cinemas show and will people go to the cinema, as it’s likely to be a chicken and egg situation.

On Monday Texas Governor said cinemas could reopen on Friday (May 1st) along with malls but not the food courts. Cinemas would only have a maximum of 25% capacity. Hence, it was unlikely many cinemas would reopen, the staff would need to wear safety masks, and social distancing would need to be needed with seat separation policies inside the auditorium and extensive cleaning between screenings. Food is still surprising being allowed to be sold, cinemagoers should have had to wear face masks while at the cinema as much for the safety of the staff and their fellow cinemagoers as themselves.

On April 1st AMC Entertainment said they were planning to reopen cinemas in the US in Mid-June, thought this must have been an April Fools as no one could be that ignorant and short-sighted? As while cinema is essential for employees working within it and the associated businesses going to the cinema is a long way down on the list of importance for most people

In Austria, cinemas aren’t expected to be open again till the end of August and in China till October so why is the US rushing the cinema reopening as surely it’s likely to backfire as it did in China when they open too quickly?

While the covidiots will rush back to the cinema immediately whatever the surveys run by Showcase Cinemas and NATO say the vast majority of people won’t go back to the cinema until they are sure cinemas are safe. As to most people, it’s not worth risking their lives to see Mulan in the cinema.

Ahead of China’s planned reopening on March 23rd implemented many safety measures, including seat separation, temperatures and immunity passports checked, face masks worn and longer gaps between screenings to deep clean cinemas. But even that wasn’t enough for Chinese authorities, and they shut again on March 23rd.

PVOD and Theatrical Window

What many people seem to forget is it was Disney that started the battle with exhibitors to the shortened theatrical window in February 2010 with Alice In Wonderland. Disney wanted to release the film on DVD after three months instead of the normal 17 weeks, this saw Odeon ban the film from their cinemas despite holding the Royal Premiere at the Odeon Leicester Square.

Hours before the premiere was to be held Odeon ended their boycott coming to an agreement with a 13-week window.

Bob Chapek, said: “We feel that it’s important for us to maintain a healthy business on the exhibition side and a healthy business on the home video side. We think this is in the best interest of theatre owners because a healthy movie business is good for them and allows us to invest in high-quality, innovative content.”

Disney had also tried to shorten the theatrical window for Up but backed down when cinemas said that they would ban Up and A Christmas Carol.

The relationship between exhibitors and studios has been on the knife-edge for the last decade ever since Universal Pictures announced plans to release Tower Heist on PVOD for $59.99.

Lines were drawn exhibitors Vs Universal Pictures and dropped their plans. In 2015 Paramount Pictures announced plans to release Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse and films Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension on VOD within weeks of their theatrical release, again angered exhibitors who banned both from cinemas.

I believe Paramount’s idea of the fil being released on VOD after the film dropped below a certain amount of screens would be the best solution for VOD which is needed as the way people watch films have changed and exhibitors need to change with their customers.

90% of a films box office is now taken within the first four weeks of the most films release, his includes most of Disney’s big mega-movies, the only recent exception was The Greatest Showman, so the current theatrical window feels far too long.

This is especially so when exhibitors can pull under-performing films from their cinemas within weeks on release, but these films still have to play out the theatrical window, I have always thought a flexible window would be beneficial to both exhibitors and studios. This would mean a flop would drop screens quickly and then be able to go onto PVOD or streaming within a month but then a successful film like The Greatest Showman can have an unlimited cinema run beyond its 17 weeks if exhibitors are still showing it at a fixed amount of screens.

The problem is most films are played out of cinemas by week 6 and even the megamovies are out of cinemas by week 8, by which times these films are available on illegal streaming sites and studios are losing revenue, but they are playing in only a handful of cinemas.

Surely after the 6-week premiere cinema release, people who wanted to see the films in cinemas would have seen them so if they were to move to PVOD and more limited theatrical they would compliment each other rather than be competitive, as often people still choose to pay to see films in cinemas despite them being available o DVD, likewise many of the Event Cinema screenings that included Doctor Who and Sherlock were being broadcast the same time they were in cinemas ion terrestrial TV for free.

On Wednesday after an article in the Wall Street Journal talking about the successful VOX release of Trolls World Tour by Universal Pictures generating $95m from 5 million sales in the US, there was the predictable backlash from exhibitors.

The next day AMC said they would ban all Universal Pictures films from their 1,000 cinemas worldwide, which include Odeon cinemas in the UK.

Soon after Cineworld cinemas also banned their films from their cinemas worldwide; saying that Universal Pictures took advantage of the virus crisis by breaking windows.
Universal chief Jeff Shell responding to the ban by AMC saying “The question is, when we come out of this, what is going to be the model? I would expect that consumers will return to cinemas and we will be part of that,”… “I also would expect PVOD is going be part of that offering in some way. It’s not going to be a replacement, but it will be a complementary element, and we’re just going to have to see how long that takes and where it takes us.”
As exhibitors can pull underperforming films from cinemas within weeks, a studio should be able to change their releasing plans. Exhibitors have no financial investment in these films so sure if a studio wants to change releasing ideas, they should be able to?

What I find surprising about this anger about breaking theatrical windows is that it’s only been aimed at Universal Pictures when all studios have done similar. Why wasn’t there not the same outrage towards Disney with Noelle was initially set for theatrical release last November, but Disney moved to Disney+. The Kenneth Branagh directed children’s adventure Artemis Fowl was initially set for release in August 2019 but was delayed to May 2020. Its release date was switched with Maleficent: Mistress of Evil was brought forward from May 2020 to October; Disney announced in April would go to Disney+ in June.
Similarly, Warner Bros announced plans to release Scoob straight to video in May instead of theatrical release in May, while have been other films going straight to VOD and Netflix from different studios.

Being a family film, Universal Pictures had dated Trolls World Tour a long time in advance and had many promotional partners which would have been very costly to both had Universal Pictures delayed the release. As Universal Pictures had at the time Minions: The Rise of Gru dated for July (they moved to July 2021) and The Croods 2 in December and with Soul dated for June and Raya and the Last Dragon for November was nowhere for Universal to move the film to this year. While it made sense to delay Minions: The Rise of Gru as the franchise is treasured for the studio the first Trolls film wasn’t as big so probably wasn’t worth the cost to delay the movie.

Sony Pictures were perhaps having similar internal discussions over Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway as the film had many Easter-related promotions including a £7m marketing campaign with Cadbury’s so delaying the film would be very costly for their promotional partners. After losing James Bond and sharing Spider-Man with Disney Peter Rabbit s their most valuable property but moving the movie to December/January will be likely costly for the studio as the film will face much tougher competition.

Maybe it’s because Universal Pictures has been trying to develop PVOD since 2009 when they wanted to release Tower Heist on PVOD on VOD for $59.99 after three weeks after its cinema release in 2011. After Cinemark and National Amusements announced they would boycott the film, Universal Pictures stopped their plans for early VOD.

Universal Pictures said, “Universal continues to believe that the theatre experience and a PVOD window are business models that can coincide and thrive, and we look forward to working with our partners in exhibition to find a way to experiment in this area in the future,”

In March 2011 there were PVOD plans by Warner Bros, Sony, Universal and 20th Century Fox but the problem is that to get PVOD full operational all studios need to be part of it and Disney have always distanced themselves from PVOD. Warner Bros planned to launch their service with Unknown, and Sony Pictures first film was to be Just Go With It.

Over the last six months, Disney has been moving theatrical releases to Disney+ and also shortening home entertainment windows for Frozen 2 and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker to Disney+. Neither of these announcements wasn’t seen as a big deal, but shortly any shortening of widows should be viewed similarly. Maybe it’s because as Disney has such a strong slate and will often react badly to criticism, as seen with the LA Times being banned for writing a negative article, which saw their critics banned from all Disney films for several months.

At CinemaCon in 2017, there were two opposing PVOD services, including Sean Parker’s The Screening Room backed by Peter Jackson and J.J. Abrams, and AMC had signed a letter of intent to do business.

While in 2017 Universal Pictures Warner Bros and 20th Century Fox were planning to launch PVOD service in early 2018 (with films including Pitch Perfect 3 and Fox’s The Greatest Showman) Comcast, Apple and Amazon were developing the delivery systems. This would have been 30-45 days after opening in cinemas with customers paying $30.

At the time insiders said, “Everyone wants to work the cinemas, but in the end, most of the studios will move ahead with PVOD,” and “I’ve never seen anything so complicated in terms of getting this boulder up the mountain.”

Some studios had previously wanted PVOD after 17 days with a $50 price in 2016. In 2016 Regal and Cinemark weren’t entirely against PVOD and Warner Bros. CEO Kevin Tsujihara said “We’re having very constructive conversations with the exhibitors for the first time that we’ve had in a long time,” and “We are working with them to create a new window.” At the time exhibitors wanted studios to guarantee they wouldn’t try to shorten the existing home entertainment window for the next five to 10 years.

This PVOD service fell apart as soon after Disney announced plans to acquire 20th Century Fox. Disney was the one studio not interested in early VOD as they said they didn’t want to jeopardise its blockbusters. This was despite their films performing similar to other studios at the box office taking 90%+ of their box office within the first four weeks.

A studio executive said at the time “No one will come out of the gate unless the majority of the industry is involved,” says one studio executive. “There is safety in numbers.”… The studios will want protection if they are unable to convince cinema owners to go along with their plan. The two sides have been talking in earnest for months, but now, studios appear willing to go ahead and try PVOD even if exhibitors don’t come on board and if exhibitors decide to boycott every PVOD title, it could get tricky,”

Maybe the solution to this exhibitors Vs studios battle would be studios to hold back content wait for AMC and Cineworld to go bankrupt and then buy them as with anti-trust laws ended studios can buy exhibitors. As the cinema industry hasn’t been thinking about audiences, they are just pawns in the unwinnable war exhibitors, and studios have been fighting ever since United States v. Paramount in 1948 when the supreme court forced studios to sell cinemas they owned.