- Black Panther Wakanda Forever – £12,363,870 – NE
Took £4.18m (33.8%) Friday; £4.75m (38.4%) Saturday; £3.44m (27.8%) Sunday
2D took 84.27% (£10,417,335); 3D 9.40% (£1,162,014); IMAX 3.89% (£480,876) and IMAX/3D 2.44% (£301,629) (the 61 IMAX cinemas split performances between 2D and 3D)
4th biggest opening of 2022 between The Batman and Thor: Love and Thunder (£80,151 more)
64th biggest opening between Thor: Ragnarok and Fantastic Beasts 2 (close to Fast & Furious 7, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1, The Matrix Reloaded and Jurassic World Dominion) and 116th biggest inflation-inflated opening between Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen and Thor: Love and Thunder (close to Night at the Museum, Avatar, Jurassic Park and Men In Black 2).
37th biggest Fri-Sun opening between Joker and Fantastic Beasts 2 (close to Marvel Avengers Assemble, Star Wars: Rogue One, Jurassic World Dominion and Spider-Man 3) and 24th biggest Fri-Sun without previews between Joker and Fantastic Beasts 2.
20th biggest comic-book opening between Thor: Ragnarok and Thor: Love and Thunder (close to Captain Marvel, Joker, Man of Steel and The Dark Knight) and the 29th biggest inflated between X-Men 2 and Thor: Love and Thunder (close to Men In Black, The Amazing Spider-Man, X-Men: The Last Stand and Batman Forever).
14h biggest MCU opening between Thor:Ragnorok (£12,375,804) and Thor: Love and Thunder (£12,283,719).
Took £80,151 more than Thor: Love and Thunder; but £2,554,390 less than Doctor Strange Fri-Sun BO and £1,167,984 less than The Batman (The Batman was 15 would have expected Wakanda Forever to open with much more especially as it would have attracted wider demographic) while also opening with £191,458 less than Joker (£12,555,328).
23rd biggest Disney opening between Thor: Ragnarok and Thor: Love and Thunder (close to Toy Story 4, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Alice In Wonderland and The Jungle Book) and 32nd biggest inflation inflated Disney opening between High School Musical 3 and Thor: Love and Thunder (close to Toy Story 2, Bruce Almighty, The Sixth Sense and A Bug’s Life).
Highlighting its lower-than-expected UK opening it took 6.82% of opening (the industry uses 10% as a guide) similar to Venom 2 and Sonic the Hedgehog 2. However, try to spin it Wakanda Forever opened far less than expected in the UK while opened exactly as expected in the US it used to be MCU films overperformed.
Yoda said, “Many of the truths that we cling to depend on our point of view.” This is the case with Wakanda Forever opening as while it did open more than three day opening of Black Panther it’s opening was less than many other recent comic-book movies including Joker and The Batman which were 15s. While extended openings will often spread BO over more days rather than increase BO and audiences who might have seen the film on Friday would go instead to Tuesday night.
Surprisingly, Black Panther Wakanda Forever didn’t have previews, especially as it opened in several other territories on Thursday and as the first film was inflated with three days of previews. As only 10 MCU films have opened without previews and only 7 of them were released by Disney. This was more of a surprise as next weekend will drop heavier than the first film due to the opening of the World Cup next Sunday.
Black Panther Wakanda opened four years after Black Panther ended Phase 4 of the MCU which has been disappointing, Marvel made Black Panther more than a comic book promoting it as the first leading black comic-book movie (despite that happening 21 years earlier with Spawn and Blade) which saw the film attract many who don’t normally watch comic-book films.
This time around Marvel sold it as a female-led comic-book film again to try to attract people who don’t normally see comic-book movies. Audience breakdown shows it did attract many who don’t normally watch comic-book movies but that must have also meant many who did go to see The Batman, Doctor Strange 2 and Thor: Love and Thunder didn’t see it over opening weekend.
The 30 MCU films are closing in on taking £1bn at the UK BO since Iron Man was released in May 2008 (£1.2bn inflated); in 2005 Paramount Pictures signed a distribution deal with Marvel to make 10 films which were to include Black Panther film alongside Iron Man, Captain America, and Shang-Chi. Paramount renewed the deal in 2008 but then a year later Disney brought Marvel for $4bn.
Black Panther opened with £17.7m in February 2018 with three days of previews (£7.2m) and was #1 for 4 weeks (taking £17.7m; £6.85m; £3.73m and £2.93m) but Black Panther Wakanda Forever will likely be #1 for only two weeks, while the big question for the sequel is how BO will be affected by the Qatar World Cup starting on Sunday. England’s games are Monday, November 21st, Friday, November 25th and Tuesday, November 29th (the last two matches at 7pn against the US and Wales.
The industry, of course, heralded the opening as a success but if you live by the sword you die by the sword and after the huge success of MCU over the last 14 years they have plateaued off since Captain America Civil War in 2016. The films apart from Avengers films and Spider-Man No Way Home have all had similar BO, but with ticket, inflation since and the increased BO from IMAX and PLF admissions are down on these films. The problem is they aren’t attracting new audiences, which was a similar issue with many of Disney’s Star Wars films. It might seem to be overly critical when a film opens with £12m but most people would have bet the house it would have had the biggest three-day opening this year.
Spider-Man: No Way Home (2022 BO); Doctor Strange 2; Thor: Love and Thunder and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever has taken about £120m between them in 2022 about 20% of 2022 BO to date. Adding all comic-book films together will take about £250m, about 25% of 2022 BO.
Had its world premiere on October 26th and the immediate reaction was predictable as it’s the same after the premiere of every MCU saying it was “the best Marvel film ever” but have to take it with a pinch as do with the reviews as MCU films are so overhyped. Even the first film that received critical acclaim (96% on Rotten Tomatoes) and a Best Picture Nomination was seen as overrated by many soon after opening. But when the embargo ended reviews were mixed with some four-star reviews but then Daily Telegraph gave it 1 star compared to 4 for the first film.
It was all about timing for the first Black Panther Marvel had primed the audience with Black Panther appearing in Captain America: Civil War two years earlier, this was similar to the case with the massive success of Spider-Man No Way Home (and Top Gun: Maverick). It is vastly different from Black Panther Wakanda Forever, that said this time around Marvel want it seen as the first female-led comic-book movie.
2018’s Black Panther and 2009’s Avatar became a global phenomenon as they both attracted audiences beyond their demographics, the sequels are likely to play more to their target demographics and not have the legs of the original films.
Black Panther Wakanda Forever took 80% of the top 10 of the weekends compared to 61% of Black Panther as being half-term 5 other films were holding strongly (Fifty Shades Freed £2,730,197; The Shape of Water £2,466,217; The Greatest Showman £1,927,367; Coco £1,400,000 and Early Man £1,154,533).
Avatar: The Way of Water will open to about double (£8,509,050), due to the rise in IMAX/PLF screens. That said it opens the weekend of the World Cup Final in Qatar when over 1.2bn people will be watching globally on Sunday.
Key to the success of both will be IMAX BO, in 2009 Avatar opened in the UK in 9 IMAX cinemas (BFI IMAX sold 99% average capacity average price of £12.90 for Black Panther 2 £22 and probably more for Avatar 2) taking about 7% of BO more than 2D took from 300 cinemas and globally opened in 261 IMAX cinemas. Avatar 2 will open in 63+ in the UK, 410+ in the US and 350+ Internationally.
James Cameron is trying to lower expectations for Avatar: The Way of Water as there were originally four sequels planned but has recently said that the film series could end with Avatar 3 in December 2024. When James Cameron finally announced the Avatar sequels in 2016, they were vital to 20th Century Fox but since Disney acquired the studio the sequels aren’t as important to Disney who are more interested in MCU and Star Wars.
The big question is what BO success look like for Avatar: The Way of Water? As the first film took almost $3bn worldwide in 2009 so the sequel would surely need to take much more 12 years later as costs have increased across the board along with ticket prices and the increase of BO from IMAX and PLF screens along with 4DX.
- 2. Black Adam – £785,661 – £18,541,740
Down 60.7% in the fourth weekend; was always going to drop heavily with the arrival of another comic-book movie
Took £171k 21.7% (down 67%) Friday; £381k 48.3% (down 55.8%) Saturday and £226k 28.7% (down 63.9%) Sunday
8th biggest DC Extended Universe film between Aquaman and Justice League
49th biggest comic-book film between Black Widow and X-Men: Apocalypse (close to Batman Forever, Venom, Venom 2 and Justice League) 69th biggest inflation inflated between Justice League and Thor (close to Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer, Dick Tracey, The Suicide Squad and The Wolverine).
313th biggest film between War Horse and Angels and Demons (close to Saving Private Ryan, Mission: Impossible, Fast Five and Jurassic Park 3) and 602nd biggest inflation inflated between School of Rock and Mulan (close to Mad Max: Fury Road, Red Dragon, Aliens and Sleepy Hollow).
Recent DC 4th weekends
2017’s Wonder Woman dropped 16% £1,575,673 #2 (Transformers: The Last Knight opened £4.63m) and £18,836,596 84.9% of £22,183,744
2017’s Justice League dropped 63% £552,228 #4 and £16,683,722 95.7% of £17,426,939
2018’s Shazam! dropped 59% (Avengers: Endgame opened £43.4m) £398,317 #5 taking £12,873,300
2018’s Aquaman dropped 24% £1,855,420 #3 and £18,277,630 85.2% of £21,441,716
2019’s Joker dropped 37% £3,464,683 #1 and £46,738,368 80.2% of £57.8m
2020’s Birds of Prey dropped 54% (The Invisible Man opened £2.16m and COVID) £358,436 #9 and £8,386,648 96.3% of £8,705,688
2022’s The Batman dropped 50% £1,664,503 #1 and £35,636,413 87.5% of £40,743,265
Dwyane Johnson and Jaume Collet-Serra recently worked together on 2021’s Jungle Cruise (dropped 23% £653,217 #5 and £10,025,794 80.3% of £12,487,739)
Selected Dwayne Johnson’s fourth weekend (not including Fast & Furious or Jumanji)
2019’s Hobbs & Shaw dropped 56% £634,421 #4 and £17,849,035 87.3% of £20,448,914
2018’s Rampage dropped 65% £256,219 #5 and £8,323,117 95.7% of £8,695,722
2016’s Central Intelligence dropped 60% £307,750 #11 and £7,986,804 94.4% of £8,459,045
2015’s San Andreas dropped 48% £443,028 #6 and £10,742,136 95% of £11,316,171
Dwayne Johnson Black Adam character is similar to The Scorpion King in 2001’s The Mummy Returns (took £20,390,060 (£39,795,093 inflated) and spinoff The Scorpion King in 2002 (dropped 48% £285,810 #6 and £4,737,075 95.82% of £4,944,146 (£9,649,444 inflated).
- 3. Lyle, Lyle Crocodile – £648,039 – £11,566,555
Down 33.9% in the fifth weekend holding well due to being the only family film in release until Strange World and Matilda open in two weeks.
Took £52k Friday 8% (down 71%); £348k Saturday 53.7% (down 17.5%) and £248k 38.3% (down 34%) Sunday
The 46th biggest family film between Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian and Stuart Little 2 (close to Hook, Home Alone, Charlotte’s Web and Matilda) and 75th biggest family film inflated between Nativity 2: Danger in the Manger! And Yogi Bear (close to Honey, I Blew Up the Kid, Freaky Friday, Big and Herbie: Fully Loaded).
Other live-action animated CGI family fifth weekend include
2004’s Garfield dropped 9% £479,294 #7 and £7,902,768 90.2% of £8,762,150 (£15,767,967)
1995’s Casper up 16.8% £875,834 and £11,343,848 71.1% of £15,965,083 (£39,691,653)
1998’s Doctor Dolittle dropped 32% £903,729 #4 and £15,591,820 78.5% of £19,854,598 (£39,807,730)
2000’s Stuart Little dropped 3% £745,890 #2 and £12,229,412 68.6% of £17,828,403 (£32,739,431)
2002’s Scooby-Doo dropped 22% £912,771 #4 and £18,000,594 84.4% of £21,333,007 (£41,635,434)
2007’s Alvin and the Chipmunks dropped 10% £715,022 #7 and £7,983,154 72.1% of £11,080,538 (£17,728,861)
2007’s Charlotte’s Web down 47% £372,548 #8 and £10,317,615 96.1% of £10,738,495 (£17,181,592)
2011’s Yogi Bear down 46% £233,307 #11 and £8,489,850 98.4% of £8,625,654 (£11,500,872)
2014’s Paddington up 2% £2,558,263 #3 and £23,959,025 63.2% of £37,916,343
2018’s Peter Rabbit dropped 36% £2,021,163 #2 and £38,093,407 92.7% of £41,100,000
2021’s Clifford the Big Red Dog dropped 20% £623,074 #4 and £7,367,194 73.3% of £10,052,296
1988’s Who Framed Roger Rabbit up 14.1% £844,721 and £10,312,073 66.1% of £15,612,005 (£54,845,652)
560th biggest between Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian and Bram Stokers Dracula (close to Jaws, Space Jam, The Smurfs 2 and Stuart Little 2) and 988th biggest inflation inflated between Nativity 2: Danger in the Manger! And The Conjuring (close to Dark Crystal, Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs (1992 RE), Junior and Edward Scissorhands).
Sony had success with children’s films in Sept/Oct over recent years including Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs taking £5,881,661; Hotel Transylvania £7,722,310 and Goosebumps £8,575,763.
Lyle, Lyle Crocodile is the only family film on release until Disney’s Strange World and Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical open in two weeks.
- 4. The Banshees of Irisherin – £560,627 – £7,480,763
Down 42.6% in the fourth weekend
Took £163k Friday 29% (down 44%); £233 41.5% (down 39.6%) Saturday; £165k (down 43.9%) 29.4% Sunday
Previous Martin McDonagh directed films 4th weekends
2008’s In Bruges dropped 65% #8 £103,252 and £4,326,430 of £4,960,895; took £2.2m from 6 weeks from Ireland ahead of UK release from about 60 screens).
2012’s Seven Psychopaths dropped 12% taking £147,498 #12 from 132 screens and £2,864,426 of £3,141,163
2018’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri dropped 29% £884,478 from 457 screens #8 and £9,435,132 stayed in the top 10 for 7 weeks; played in the top 15 for 11 weeks until the end of March taking £143,670 #14 in 11th w/e from 181 screens £14,693,527 96.4% of £15,238,741.
923rd biggest film between Burn After Reading and Angel Has Fallen (close to Jojo Rabbit, Argo, Bridge of Spies and Never Say Never Again) and 1,486th biggest inflation inflated between Men In Black International and Maze Runner: The Death Cure (close to Dead Again, LA Confidential, The Patriot and Hugo).
After the success of Three Billboards opening in January ahead of award success, it was surprising The Banshees of Inisherin didn’t have a similar release, as January opening is far more lucrative with BAFTA and Oscar nominations and award contenders having longer legs often playing through till March
The Banshees Of Inisherin is one of the three films made by Searchlight Pictures seen as award contenders this year with The Menu opening in November directed by Mark Mylod and Empire of Light in December directed by Sam Mendes. All three films were launched at film festivals last month.
- 5. Living – £493,618 – £1,735,421
Down 26.5% in the second weekend holding well due to strong word of mouth and targetting much older audience not interested in comic-book movies.
Took £146k 29.6% (up 3.5%) Friday; £199k Saturday 40.3% (down 13.1%) and £148k 30% (down 22.5%) Sunday
Adding 134 screens from last weekend from 258 to 392
Had a second weekend similar to 2022’s The Woman King, Mrs Harris Goes To Paris, See How They Run, Licorice Pizza and Nightmare Alley and similar to Shirley Valentine, Mrs Henderson Presents, The Royal Tenenbaums, My Week with Marilyn, The Prince of Tides and Finding Your Feet
Took £467,581 Mon-Thurs almost the same as £566,190 Fri-Sun (not including £104,016 previews) as older audiences prefer to see films during the week rather than weekends.
Will face competition from Armageddon Time and The Menu opening Friday
Film News
UK BO up till the end of October was £814m 29% down from 2019 Wakanda Forever will likely take £35m+, with Matilda The Musical £20m, so for UK BO to top the £1bn industry must be expecting Avatar: The Way of Water to match the BO of the first film released 12 years ago. With 50% ticket inflation since Avatar opened in 2009 and the growth of IMAX cinemas from 9 to 62 along with other premium formats it needs to attract less than half of the 17.3m who saw Avatar. But there are still big questions over whether audiences are ready to return to Pandora.
UK box office in detail
This weekend’s top 10 box office took £15,472,862 up 138.1% from last weekend’s £6,497,740: 1,914,958 admissions up 138.1% from 804,176
192nd biggest top 10 of the last 21 years (out of 1,074) between 12 February 2010 #1 Valentine’s Day £3,732,393 (24.1% of top 10) and 21 October 2016 #1 Trolls £5,440,878 (35.2% of top 10) and 446th biggest inflation inflated between 18 January 2013 #1 Les Miserables £4,406,828 (35.2% of top 10) and 26 October 2001 #1 American Pie 2 £1,626,438 (20.5% of top 10).
Top 3 took £13,797,570 89.2% of the top 10; Black Panther Wakanda Forever 80% (£12,363,870); Black Adam 5.1% (£785,661); Lyle, Lyle Crocodile 4.2% (£648,039);
Up 81.7% from 2021 (£8,515,063); Mothering Sunday (£156,940); Cry Macho (£72,131); West Side Story (1961) (60th Anniversary) (£8,725); #1 Eternals £2,918,585 2nd week 649 screens 47% drop (34.3% of top 10)
2020 COVID Second Lockdown
Up 81.3% 2019 (£8,534,914); The Aeronauts (£1,042,337); The Good Liar (£960,536); Midway (£755,181); 42nd Street – The Musical (£560,680); Madama Butterfly – Met Opera 2019 (£270,363); Luce (£116,098); #1 Joker £1,668,466 32% drop 601 screens 6th week (19.6% of top 10)
Up 7.4% 2018:(£14,405,189); The Grinch (£5,019,677); Widows (£2,409,112); Overlord (£677,844); They Shall Not Grow Old (£271,302); #1 The Grinch £5,019,677 1st week 559 screens 30.3% of the top 10)
Down 16.9% 2017: (£18,610,649); Paddington 2 (£8,260,160); Only the Brave (£268,680); The Florida Project (£241,490); Predator (30th Anniversary) (£99,689); Professor Marston and the Wonder Women (£9,148); #1 Paddington 2 £8,260,160 1st week 607 screens 1st week (44.3% of the top 10)
Up 43.1% 2016: (£10,984,043); Arrival (£2,924,059); American Pastoral (£56,832); #1 Arrival £2,924,059 1st week 561 screens (26.6% of the top 10)
Up 4.5% 2015; (£14,812,116); The Lady in the Van (£2,256,121); Steve Jobs (£903,214); The Hallow (£51,742); Fathers and Daughters (£25,199); #1 SPECTRE £7,833,891 3rd week 617 screens 40% drop (52.8% of top 10)
Up 32.2% 2014: (£11,703,689); The Imitation Game (£2,742,725); Nativity 3: Dude, Where’s My Donkey? (£1,800,419); The Drop (£637,867); Third Person (£2,294); #1 Interstellar £3,777,804 2nd week 576 screens 30% drop (32.3% of top 10)
Up 7.9% 2013: (£14,343,283); Gravity (£6,238,375); #1 Gravity £6,238,375 1st week 539 screens (43.5% of top 10)
Up 1.9% 2012 (£15,185,020); Argo (£1,287,770); Here Comes the Boom (£433,052); The Sapphires (£337,641); Love Bite (£73,129); People Like Us (£19,981); #1 Skyfall £10,447,385 3rd week 589 screens 35% drop (68.8% of top 10)
Up 59.9% 2011 (£9,676,951); Immortals (£2,166,432); Arthur Christmas (£2,112,516); The Rum Diary (£608,055); The Awakening (£273,083); Trespass (£247,957); Wuthering Heights (£156,931); Tabloid (£4,618); #1 Immortals £2,166,432 1st week 428 screens (22.4% of top 10)
Up 100.6% 2010: (£7,711,855); Skyline (£1,206,207); You Again (£145,034); #1 Due Date £1,898,324 2nd week 452 screens 19% drop (24.6% of top 10)
Up 10.4% 2009; (£14,013,567); 2012 (£6,489,809); Harry Brown (£1,271,814); The White Ribbon (£72,226); Amelia (£49,224); Taking Woodstock (£41,348); #1 2012 £6,489,809 1st week 480 screens (46.3% of top 10)
Up 58% 2008; (£9,795,141); Max Payne (£1,004,995); Zack and Miri Make a Porno (£798,205); The Baader-Meinhof Complex (£108,791); #1 Quantum of Solace £5,164,182 3rd week 549 screens 44% drop (52.7% of top 10)
Up 101.6% 2007: (£7,673,228); Good Luck Chuck (£1,316,325); Lions for Lambs (£658,282); Into the Wild (£196,994); Planet Terror (£80,894); The Band’s Visit (£18,704); Silk (£15,880); #1 Good Luck Chuck £1,316,325 1st week 379 screens (17.1% of top 10)
Up 65.5% 2006; (£9,349,640); The Prestige (£1,184,996); Breaking & Entering (£364,886); Starter for Ten (£207,345); #1 Borat £4,510,657 2nd week 430 screens 28% drop (48.2% of top 10)
Up 102.9% 2005 (£7,626,912); In Her Shoes (£1,337,176); The Constant Gardener (£1,004,641); Kiss Kiss, Bang Bang (£458,826); #1 In Her Shoes £1,337,176 1st week 325 screens (17.5% of top 10)
Up 1.1% from 2004 (£15,300,361); Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason (£10,435,193); Ladies in Lavender (£423,313); Anacondas: The Hunt for the Blood Orchid (£194,597); #1 Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason £10,435,193 1st week 504 screens (68.2% of top 10)
Up 133.2% from 2003 (£6,633,990); The Medallion (£106,797); The Mother (£59,077); Octane (£9,910); #1 The Matrix Revolutions £2,575,595 2nd week 466 screens 70% drop (38,8% of top 10)
Up 255.1% 2002 (£4,357,114); Rabbit Proof Fence (£221,758); Orange County (£167,051); #1 28 Days Later £1,073,042 2nd week 320 screens 28% drop (24.6% of top 10)
Up 225.2% 2001 (£4,758,297); Kiss of the Dragon (£478,811); The Piano Teacher (£71,911); #1 The Others £1,687,041 2nd week 386 screens 25% drop (35.4% of top 10).
Next weekend 2021 (£8,973,238); Ghostbusters: Afterlife (£4,314,263); King Richard (£570,316); Petite Maman (£97,321); Rocky IV: Rocky Vs. Drago (Director’s Cut) (£31,779); #1 Ghostbusters: Afterlife £4,314,263 1st week 658 screens (48.1% of top 10)
US Box Office
- Black Panther Wakanda Forever – Disney
Opened with $181.33m; received positive reviews (84% Rotten Tomatoes) and A CinemaScore
13th biggest opening between Incredibles 2 and Captain America: Civil War
Had the biggest November opening ahead of 2013’s The Hunger Games: Catching Fire ($158.1m); 2009’s The Twilight Saga: New Moon ($142.8m); 2012’s The Twilight Saga Breaking Dawn: Part 2 ($141m), 2011’s The Twilight Saga Breaking Dawn: Part 1 ($138.1m) and 2019’s Frozen 2 ($130.3m) all opening over Thanksgiving weekend.
MCU now 9 of the top 15 biggest openings in the US, but that’s not a surprise as the target audience rushes out to see them over the opening weekend to avoid spoilers.
Opened in 400+ IMAX (8%); 900+ PLF; 2,800 3D; 30+ ScreenX and 30+ D-Box screens; 34% ($61m)
EntTelligence reports the average ticket price for normal formats is $11.19 while IMAX/PLF is $15.64 but NATO hasn’t updated their average price since 2019 of $9.16.
Took $28m from Thursday previews (from 3 pm) up 11% from Black Panther $25.2m (12.5% of opening) for Black Panther in February 2018 (had the 12th biggest previews now #18) took $75.94m (37.6%) Friday; $66m (32.6%) Saturday and $60.06m Sunday (30%);
Other 2022 comic-book previews include The Batman ($21.6m); Black Adam ($7.6m); Spider-Man: No Way Home ($50m) and Doctor Strange 2 ($36m) and Thor: Love and Thunder ($29m).
The 12th biggest opening day taking $84m (including $28m previews) between Avengers: Age of Ultron and Avengers: Infinity War. Took $8m more than Black Panther ($75.9m); $14m+ Thor: Love and Thunder ($69.5m) and $7m less than Doctor Strange 2 ($90.7m)
Bookings on Tuesday were $45m 20% less than Doctor Strange 2 but 40% more than Thor: Love & Thunder (3 days ahead of opening); Doctor Strange 2 took $85m 45.3% of $187.4m opening; Thor: Love & Thunder took $48M 33.1% of $144.1m and Black Panther took $55m 27.2% of $202m opening from advance sales. In 2018 advance sales opened a month before opening and within days had broken Marvel’s record set by 2016’s Captain America: Civil War.
Bookings were up to $66m on Thursday behind Doctor Strange 2‘s $85m but more than Thor: Love & Thunder‘s $48m.
As bookings will be for mostly IMAX and PLF screens by ultra-fans often booking over a month before opening they aren’t any indication of how a film might open, but most of the bookings will be for opening weekend as the industry always gets fans in a to fluster scared, they might not be able to see the film over the opening weekend to avoid spoilers.
The 7 MCU films released in 2021 and 2022 have taken $2.3bn in the US and 21% share of BO, the problem with comic-book movies is success for one only boosts the success for the next and they cannibalize the market a week before and the week after as rival studios won’t open anything major against them. But as seen by the BO between Doctor Strange 2 and Thor 4 with the release of Top Gun Maverick its success helped other films like Elvis find a much bigger audience than it might have done. The problem is 2023 will be more of the same with four MCU, 4 DC and 3 Sony/Marvel
Black Panther 2 opened in 4,000+ cinemas it will play often in more than half a dozen screens of multiplexes, would be interesting to know how many screenings (300k+) and how many seats are available as must be 60m+ over 3.5 days and then available seats and percentage of sold as it about 30% capacity across the 3.5 days. (As full capacity must be $750m+).
It was tracking to open three weeks ago between $175m-$185m and a global debut of $355m-$365m; it used to be films would open with about $20m more than tracking as buzz builds up ahead of opening but now, they open similar to tracking estimate.
Black Panther opened with $202m in February 2018 which was then the 5th biggest opening in the UK (now 8th) just below The Avengers ($207.43m) but the original film played way beyond the normal comic-book audience and became a must-see phenomenon attracting many who never see comic-book movies. While Marvel is trying to repeat it by selling the sequel as the first female-led comic-book movie it’s unlikely to attract a similar-sized audience.
For the last few weeks, the film has been tracking to open between $175m-$185m, it used to be Disney lowered their expectations by about $20m+ so the films would open much bigger than expected, but recently they have opened close to track. Globally expected to open $355m- $365m (will be closer to $400m) being the third biggest global opening since cinemas reopened after Spider-Man: No Way Home ($568m) and Doctor Strange 2 ($429m).
Black Panther opened with $404m worldwide including $35m worldwide from 676 IMAX screens worldwide; opened with $81.5m from 48 territories on Friday (February 16th). The difference is in 2018 Black Panther opened in a crowded marketplace, but the sequel has the market for itself so should be opening far stronger, especially as 4 years on far more BO will be coming from IMAX and PLF and the addition of 4DX.
What will be interesting to see is the 3D BO as like the first film the sequel was retrofitted into 3D and with Avatar; The Way of Water opening in a month will show if fans are excited about watching films in 3D again. Many heralded the 3D re-release of Avatar in September as a success but opening with $10.5m was a fraction of the Star Wars 1997 re-release despite being 25 years later and a tripling of prices since.
Black Panther Wakanda Forever will be much more front-loaded than the first film likely to be #1 for two weeks unlike 5 for the first film, but the big question for Wakanda Forever is not if it opens with $180m+ it’s if it will be the latest member of the $100m loser club in its second weekend. As these films have so much hype surrounding them and the 15-34 audience swarm to them over opening weekend, the second-weekend drop is now far more important than its opening.
Black Panther 2 opening saw Disney’s 2022 US BO top $1bn; 1) Universal $1.4bn; 2) Paramount $1.28bn; 3) Disney $1.06bn; 4) Warner Bros $917.2m; 5) Sony $822.8m..
Black Panther Wakanda Forever was always likely to open with $175m+ but the bigger question with these films isn’t their opening weekend but how much they will drop In their second weekend. Will Wakanda Forever be the latest member of the $100m loser club, Black Panther just missed out with $91m drop as did Thor: Love and Thunder $98.5m.
Current $100m+ losers include Avengers: Endgame, Avengers: Infinity War, Avengers: Age of Ultron, The Avengers, Captain America: Civil War, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Iron Man 3, Star Wars: Episode VIII – The Last Jedi, Star Wars: Episode IX – The Rise of Skywalker, Incredibles 2, Jurassic World and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice.
As the problem with these films many of them are all hype, audiences rush out to see them over opening weekend but then quickly move on to the next big thing.
It had the third biggest international opening post-COVID; 2nd biggest global opening in 2022 5% less than Black Panther’s global opening.
Opened $150m from 50 territories and $330m worldwide; UK $15m; France $13.7m; Mexico $12.8m; Korea $8.9m; Brazil $7.1m; Australia $6.8m; India $6.4m; Germany $6.1m.
Opened with $22.6m globally from IMAX including $8.4m internationally
Recent international openings include Thor: Love & Thunder ($163m); Jurassic World Dominion ($152m); The Batman ($114m); Doctor Strange 2 ($242m); Black Panther opened with $144m.
The film is not expected to open in China, Black Panther opened with $65.13m taking $105.06m
- Black Adam – Warner Bros
Dropped 56% in the fourth weekend $8.05m and $151.1m
486th biggest fourth weekend between Hobbs & Shaw and Central Intelligence (close to The Fast and the Furious, X-Men Origins: Wolverine, Jason Bourne and Mad Max: Fury Road).
Black Adam BO is similar to Eternals taking $150m Vs $156m after 4 weeks but this also means both are performing similar to 2005’s Fantastic Four which took $6.91m ($9.6m inflated) in #4 and $136m ($190m inflated)
390th biggest film between Divergent and Rambo: First Blood Part II; 805th biggest inflation inflated between Ride Along and Panic Room; 10th biggest 2022 film between Uncharted and Nope; 65th biggest comic-book movie between Fantastic Four and X-Men: First Class; 66th biggest Warner Bros film between Elvis and We’re the Millers.
Fourth weekends
2019’s Shazam! dropped 66.1% $5.58m and $131.21m of $140.48m and $366.08m WW
2018’s Aquaman dropped 44% by $17.35m and $287.94m of $335.1m and $1.138bn WW
Similar to Dwayne Johnson’s 2019’s Hobbs & Shaw $8.06m down 43.1% and $147.62m of $173.95m and $759.05m WW
Took $9.7m from 76 territories and $200.8m and $352.2m worldwide; UK $21.1m; France $15.1m, Mexico $13.9m; Brazil $13.5m; Australia $10.7m.
420th biggest film worldwide between Who Framed Roger Rabbit? And Dr Seuss’ The Lorax; 13th biggest 2022 worldwide between Uncharted and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; 64th biggest comic-book film between The Mask and Batman Forever; 79th biggest Warner Bros film worldwide between The Great Gatsby and The Legend of Tarzan.
- Ticket To Paradise – Universal Pictures
Dropped 31% in the fourth weekend $5.9m and $56.31m
Holding well in the fourth weekend despite Black Panther Wakanda Forever targeting an older demographic not interested in comic-book movies.
1,577th biggest film between Once Upon a Time in Mexico and Me Before You; 2,480th biggest inflation inflated between Uptown Girls and The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2; 29th biggest 2022 film between jackass forever and Death on the Nile; 67th biggest rom-com between Midnight in Paris and Just Married; 222nd biggest Universal Pictures film between American Reunion and White Noise.
Fourth weekends
Selective George Clooney films
1996’s One Fine Day was down 44.5% $3.44m and $37.3m of $46.15m and $97.52m WW; disappointed in the US opening the week after Jerry Maguire in December 1996
2003’s Intolerable Cruelty dropped 31.1% by $2.49m and $31.89m of $35.32m and $120.8m WW
2009’s Up In The Air dropped 23.9% by $5.44m and $62.81m of $83.82m and $166.84m WW
1998’s Out of Sight dropped 46.4% by $2.04m and $33.73m of $37.56m and $77.74m WW
Selective Julia Roberts films
1990’s Pretty Woman is down 10.2% by $10.11m and $59.29m of $178.4m; $463.4m WW
1997’s My Best Friend’s Wedding dropped 23.1% $6.52m and $83.5m of $127.12m; $299.28m WW
1999’s Runaway Bride dropped 32.7% by $9.26m and $113.51m of $152.25m; $309.46m WW
2001’s America’s Sweethearts dropped 45.2% by $4.4m and $83.24m of $93.6m; $138.3m WW
George Clooney and Julia Roberts previously worked together on 2001’s Ocean’s Eleven 2002’s Confessions of a Dangerous Mind (took $16m) 2004’s Ocean’s Twelve and 2016’s Money Monster dropped 56.9% $1.86m and $38.3m of $ 41.01m; $93.28m WW
Producers of the film described it as a kind of sequel to 1990s rom coms like Notting Hill (dropped 38.6% $6.9m and $79.74m of $116.08m and $363.88m WW) and 1994’s Four Wedding and a Funeral down 8.7% $3.99m (after 4 weeks platform) and $23.88m of $52.7m
Took $1.43m from 79 territories $93.5m total (taking more than both The Lost City and House of Gucci internationally) and $150m; 1,288th biggest worldwide between The Jungle Book 2 and The Three Musketeers; 31st biggest 2022 between RRR and Scream; 56th biggest rom com between Trainwreck and Nine Months; 170th biggest Universal Pictures film between American Graffiti and The Invisible Man.
- Lyle, Lyle Crocodile – Sony Pictures
Down 5% in the sixth-weekend #4 $3.2m and $40.64m
2,199th biggest films between House on Haunted Hill and Love, Simon; 3,188th biggest inflation inflated between The Missing and Halloween 2; 33rd biggest 2022 between Downton Abbey: A New Era and Barbarian; 146th biggest animation/live action between Paddington 2 and The Dark Crystal; 290th biggest Sony Pictures film between The Star and Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway.
Other live-action animated animal CGI family films sixth weekends include
2004’s Garfield dropped 43.9% by $1.05m and $70.48m of $75.36m; $203.17m WW
1999’s Stuart Little dropped 31.9% by $6.4m and $117.08m of $140.03m; $300.13m WW
2007’s Alvin and the Chipmunks dropped 25.3% $6.94m and $196.32m of $217.32m; $365.35m WW
2014’s Paddington dropped 39.4% by $2.44m and $67.81m of $76.27m; $282.37m WW
2018’s Peter Rabbit dropped 23.3% by $5.2m and $102.44m of $115.25m; $351.26m WW
2021’s Clifford the Big Red Dog dropped 69% $404,068 and $48.59m of $48.94m; $107.34m WW
1988’s Who Framed Roger Rabbit down 26.5% $6.55m and $95.3m of $156.45m; $329.8m WW
Took $3.5m from 49 territories $31.8m total and $72.6m worldwide; the film expands slowly internationally; 51s biggest 2022 film worldwide between jackass forever and The Northman; 153rd biggest live-action animated film between Cats and Small Soldiers; 278th biggest Sony Pictures film between The One and Urban Legend.
- The Banshees of Inisherin – Searchlight
Down 20% taking $1.65m #7 in the fourth weekend adding 65 screens to 960 screens and $5.73m
Fourth weekends
2008 In Bruges up 5% adding 69 screens to 232 screens taking $775,255 and $3,763,918 of $7.8m;
2017’s Three Billboards added 816 screens in the fourth weekend down 0.1% $4.39m and $13.53m; expanded again in January after receiving Oscar nominations going on to take about a third of its BO after Oscar nominations taking $54.51m.
2012’s Seven Psychopaths dropped 50.7% taking $739,194 and $13.41m of $15.02m
Took $8.6m internationally (UK) and $14.4m worldwide
- The Fabelmans – Universal Pictures
Opened $161,579 from 4 screens: (95% Rotten Tomatoes)
The Steven Spielberg-directed film premiered at the Toronto Film Festival, receiving two standing ovations and widespread critical acclaim.
The film expands to 600 screens over Thanksgiving weekend.
It’s the first Steven Spielberg film to open on platform release since 2017’s The Post opening $526,011 from 9 screens, expanded to 36 screens in the third weekend and wide in the fourth with $19.36,
2012’s Lincoln opened $944,308 from 11 screens and expanded wide in the second weekend with $21.04m
1993’s Schindler’s List $656,636 from 25 screens, slowly expanding and didn’t play into over 1,000 screens until its 14th week of release
UK Box Office Top 10
UK Box Office Preview
Black Panther Wakanda Forever will drop 45%-50% in its second weekend (taking £5.8m-£6.2m) similar drops as Captain Marvel, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 and Eternals also had three-day openings.
2018’s Black Panther dropped 61% in its second weekend £6,859,230 (35% not including previews) with three wide releases opening (Lady Bird £1,233,508; I, Tonya £1,049,551; Finding Your Feet £923,220) and The Greatest Showman taking £2,000,922, Fifty Shades Freed £1,190,524, The Shape of Water £900,402 and Coco £759,419.
The difference for Wakanda Forever is none of the holdovers and new releases will take anywhere near £1m as Wakanda Forever for its second weekend cannibalizes the BO. New releases The Menu, Armageddon Time and Confess, Fletch will struggle to find wide audiences.
The Menu has received strong buzz ahead of opening featuring a strong cast, but reviews have been mixed and it’s hard to see its target audience as it’s social horror similar to films like Parasite and Get Out. Being directed by Mark Mylod writer and director of Succession and produced by Adam McKay and Will Ferrell would expect more especially as the script was on the 2019 Black List.
2019’s Ready Or Not opened #4 with £947,958 (including £250,470 previews)
The other two releases will struggle to find an audience drama Armageddon Time starring Anne Hathaway, Jeremy Strong and Anthony Hopkins has received positive reviews and received a 7-minute standing ovation at the Cannes Film Festival. But these coming-of-age American dream films often struggle to find an audience such as Pleasantville, Little Miss Sunshine, School Ties, A Bronx Tale and Moonrise Kingdom.
While Confess, Fletch the third film in the Fletch film series 33 years after the last film Fletch Lives opened #3 with £123,397 from 151 screens. It will more likely open similarly to National Lampoon’s Christmas Vacation which was released in the UK as Winter Holiday opened in April 1990 with £54,657 from 52 screens.
The industry herald’s comic-book films as a positive addition to BO but the problem with them is they cannibalize the BO for at least three weeks. It used to be a success for one film would lead to success for the next for comic-book movies it goes from comic-book movie to comic-book movie as was the case with this year’s Spider-Man No Way Home success leading to The Batman, leading to Doctor Strange 2, Thor Love and Thunder and now Black Panther 2. The same will be the case next year with 4 10 major comic-book movies. What amazes me is exhibitors used to make more money the longer a film played with the studio taking a high percentage of BO in the opening weekend but as these films are often front-loaded taking 90% of BO within 4 weeks they can’t be as lucrative as Top Gun Maverick was.
Opening in two weeks
- Summering – Sony Pictures
Drama stars Lia Barnett, Lake Bell, Sarah Cooper, Ashley Madekwe, Madalen Mills, Megan Mullaly, Eden Grace Redfield, and Sanai Victoria and is directed by James Ponsoldt.
International rights were acquired by Stage 6 Films in August 2021 and had a world premiere at Sundance Film Festival receiving mixed reviews.
Will have a limited release over dump weekend.
- The Infernal Machine – Paramount Pictures
Psychological thriller starring Guy Pearce, Alice Eve, Jeremy Davies and Alex Pettyfer and directed by Andrew Hunt. The film received mixed reviews
Paramount Pictures acquired global rights in October 2021 and will give the film a limited release.
- Violent Night – Universal Pictures
Christmas action comedy starring David Harbour, John Leguizamo, Cam Gigandet, Alex Hassell, Alexis Louder, Edi Patterson, and Beverly D’Angelo and directed by Tommy Wirkola.
Produced by David Leitch (John Wick, Atomic Blonde, Deadpool 2 and Bullet Train) you know what to expect from Violent Night.
Had its world premiere at the New York Comic Con in October
Other Christmas action films include Die Hard (opened £612,125); Lethal Weapon (£444,098); Ronin (£875,545); RED (£1,662,472); The Long Kiss Goodnight (£1,195,105); Kiss Kiss Bang Bang (£458,826) and Bad Santa (£474,450); We’re No Angels (£46,354 from 26 screens); Trapped in Paradise (£96,814 #10 from 102 screens); The Last Boy Scout (£474,723).
There are films set at Christmas and then Christmas films as some people believe films like Die Hard aren’t Christmas films as they were released in the summer in the US and February in the UK.
- The Muppet Christmas Carol (30th Anniversary) – Park Circus
Re-release of the beloved Christmas musical comedy starring Michael Caine and the Muppets.
Disney had tried to buy the Jim Henson Company many times, but the two companies couldn’t agree on terms in 1990 after the death of Jim Henson but Disney did acquire film rights. Similar to Disney’s plans to make annual Star Wars films they also originally had plans for annual Muppet films but their 90s films (The Muppet Christmas Carol, Muppet Treasure Island and Muppets from Space weren’t as successful as hoped so weren’t another film until The Muppets in 2011 and Muppets Most Wanted in 2014.
Opened in December 1992 with £1.15m (£2.9m inflated) taking £2.5m (£6.2m inflated)
The film has been re-released many times over recent years for Christmas, Park Circus last re-released it for its 25th anniversary taking £36,287 #22 from 29 screens