After a disappointing summer full of unnecessary sequels and remakes we look towards the autumn for a more grown up mix of films many of which will the studios hope go on to become successful at the box office and awards.
But often the films that for months are expected to do both don’t live up to expectations and then others come out of nowhere to surprise which was the case last year with The Walk and The Martian. For months The Walk was seen as the big autumn film with The Martian set for November but then 20th Century Fox surprised everyone bring The Martian release forward to 2nd October (same date as The Walk) and premiering at the Toronto Film Festival where it received excellent reviews and built strong buzz.
Sony Pictures decided to premiere The Walk at the New York Film Festival on September 30th was only days before its opening by which time The Martian had very strong buzz and The Walk was DOA. The Martian opened with £6.52m going to take £23.52m, nominated for Golden Globes, Oscars and BAFTAs winning Best Comedy Film Golden Globe while The Walk opened with £0.15m taking only £1.25m
Guillermo del Toro’s Crimson Peak was a similar film which had high expectations but thanks to a confused marketing it failed to meet expectations opening with £0.92m taking £2.47m. As was Danny Boyle’s Steve Jobs its development well known as featured heavily in the Sony Hacking emails moved to Universal opening with £0.89m taking £2.36m.
But there were surprises Hotel Transylvania 2 opening with £6.31m taking £19.72m, Brooklyn opening £1.04m taking £5.86m, The Lady in the Van opening £2.24m taking £13.21m, Carol opening £0.48m taking £2.78m and Daddy’s Home opening £1.61m taking £16.71m.
While The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 disappointed but still managed to open with £11.24m and take £28.86m but should of taking more the problem being is audiences felt a bit ripped off splitting the film in two.
The question is how will 2016 compare as it is missing the two heavyweights of last year Star Wars The Force Awakens and Spectre which took £218m combined. 2016 does have Star Wars: Rogue One and Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them but Rogue one is unlikely to match the heights of The Force Awakens and the finally Harry Potter Deathly Hallows Part 2 took £73.09m in 2011.
As always September to mid-November is very busy with many films and similar to the summer many are targeting similar audiences.
The first seven months of 2016 are down 3.3% from 2015 but up 7.7% for same period of 2014 but the big question is will Aug-Dec 2016 match last year which had The Martian, Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2, Spectre and Star Wars The Force Awakens among others add over £543.3m to 2015 box office for the year?
Every year are often more than one film starring and actor but this autumn seems more than ever with Tom Hanks, Denzel Washington, Chris Pratt, Felicity Jones, Ben Affleck, Anna Kendrick, Amy Adams and others will be doubling up in movies. Normally this isn’t a problem unless they are potential award contenders but could be seen as another sign of cinema feeling like Groundhog Day.
These are some of the key releases set for release between September and December
September
Bridget Jones’s Baby
As Fifty Shades of Grey fan fiction of Twilight, Bridget Jones Diary novel was to the BBC’s 1995 TV adaption of Jane Austen’s Pride and Prejudice with Colin Firth as Mr Darcy. (Most were suprised with the huge opening of 50 Shades of Grey in February 2015 of £13.37m as most were comparing it to Sex and the City; but if compared to Twilight films its opening and steep drop off was expected). The Independent journalist Helen Fielding wrote of her love of the TV series in the Bridget Jones Diary column during the broadcast of the series in 1995 and that developed into her novel Bridget Jones Diary which sold over two million copies.
Working Title started developing the third part of Bridget Jones in 2009 saying it wouldn’t be based on Helen Fielding third novel but her 2005 column. In 2011 was reported Renée Zellweger and Colin Firth would return and it would be directed by Paul Feig who had just finished Bridesmaids but then dropped out to be replaced by Peter Cattaneo (The Full Monty). Creative differences delayed the film for several years until early 2015 when Sharon Maguire who directed the first film in 2001 only directing one film since and started shooting in October 2015.
In March first trailer was released with second trailer in June; much was made of Renee Zellweger’s physical appearance in the trailer Variety critic Owen Gleiberman wrote “Renee Zellweger: If She No Longer Looks Like Herself, Has She Become a Different Actress?” Renée Zellweger wrote a blog response on Huffington Post against double standards in the media between men and women.
Working Title British romantic comedies marketing campaigns have become very similar but if it ain’t broke don’t fix it; starting in 1994 with Four Weddings and a Funeral with Brit pop centric soundtrack central to its marketing from Wet Wet Wet Wet Love Is All Around to Ellie Goulding – Still Falling for You and a big London premiere.
Nowadays premieres down get the media coverage they used to receive but thanks to the black Versace safety pin dress Liz Hurley wore Four Weddings generated huge media coverage alongside the #1 single helped it become the biggest British film in UK till The Full Monty in 1997.
Neither film on paper would you think would be so massive but you can never really know how a film will play until seen by a public audience and you never know if they will take it to their hearts. With films based on books Bridget Jones or stage shows Mamma Mia which already have an inbuilt fan-base it’s more likely but never certain.
Bridget Jones Diary opened in April 2001 with a massive £5.72m dropping only 25% in its second weekend staying in the top 10 for 17 weeks taking £41.69m.
Bridget Jones: Edge of Reason opened in November 2004 with £10.4m was up to last February Universal Pictures biggest opening in the UK replaced by 50 Shades of Grey and a few months later by Jurassic World. (of course those two can’t be compared with a film that opened 11 years earlier.
While the first Bridget Jones Diary was well received critically. (remember doing a screening for Sharon Maguire over six months before opening and could see then it was going to be a massive hit). Its sequel Edge of Reason received negative reviews and mixed word of mouth shown with it dropping 52% in its second weekend staying in the top ten for half as long 8 weeks.
Early buzz for Bridget Jones’s Baby is positive and with storyline being similar to Mamma Mia along with the huge media coverage it will received starting with Ellie Goulding’s single similar to 50 Shades of Grey and holding the world premiere 11 days before opening. Bridget Jones has a strong female audience similar to Sex and the City and 50 Shades of Grey cinemas holding Bridget Jones nights advance booking are likely to be far stronger than most films. Bridget Jones’s Baby is likely to have one of the biggest openings of the year similar to £13.47m of 50 Shades of Grey last year but will be similarly front-loaded.
Opening will dwarf last year’s biggest September opening of Legend £5.16m and The Martian £6.52m but both had far stronger legs.
Also in September The Magnificent Seven which from the trailers could be a remake worth seeing with a great cast. Hell or High Water has had rave reviews as Kubo and the High Water.
Miss Pergrine’s Home for Peculiars – Tim Burton back to making a dark fantasy screenplay by Jane Goldman who also did the screenplay for the wonderful 2007 fantasy adventure Stardust more recently Kingsman: The Secret Service and its sequel Kingsman: The Golden Circle released in June 2017.
Its Tim Burton’s first directed film since Big Eyes in 2014 which was a critical but not box office success as his previous films have been Alice in Wonderland in 2010 was his last massive hit.
The film has had its release date changed many times originally due for release in July 2016 then Christmas 2016 then finally September 2016 is a little concerning.
Blair Witch
Surprise film for September as up to July everyone thought it was a found footage horror called The Woods but then Lionsgate surprised audiences at Comic -Con screening the complete film Blair Witch.
The original The Blair Witch Project was shot in 1997 for a budget of $35,000 acquired by Artisan for $1.1m spending $20m to market it; receiving its world premiere at Sundance Film Festival in 1999 receiving critical acclaim many audiences believed it was real.
The Blair Witch Project opened in 22nd October 1999 with £750,822 from 36 screens expanding to 397 screens in its second weekend taking £5,875,318 dropping over 60% in its third weekend going on to take £14.9m. of course after the massive success of the first film the studio rushed out a sequel following weekend which took a fraction of the original opening with £1.09m taking £2.37m. Over the years after sequel there were many rumours of another film or reboot.
Horror have performed strongly this year but problem Blair Witch has is over five previous weeks Nerve, Light Out, The Purge: Election Year, Morgan and Don’t Breathe all opened all targeting same audience. The positive for is horrors are front-loaded and will be a good alternative for many males whose partners will be trying to drag them to see Bridget Jones’s Baby.
2016’s biggest horror was The Conjuring 2 opening with £4.64m but included £1.86m from previews its Fri-Sun box office was £2.78m but the problem with 7 day openings is you can’t compare either with a regular 3 day opening as a films Fri-Sun audience is spread out over 7 days rather than concentrated with three. Opening for Blair Witch will be more likely be between £1.86m – £2.60m.
With Deepwater Horizon dated for September 30th Lionsgate couldn’t open the later with Ouija: Origin of Evil and Rings opening in October in US. While Bridget Jones’s Baby will be huge in the UK the previous films under-performed in the US so while Bridget Jones’s Baby will dwarf the opening in UK of Blair Witch the opposite will likely happen in US.
Also released:
Captain Fantastic, Don’t Breathe, Deepwater Horizon, Morgan, Cafe Society and Ben Hur after flopping in the US last weekend likely to do similar in the UK which was strange Paramount chose not to opening day and date.
October
The Girl on the Train – based on the best-selling novel by Paula Hawkins the mystery thriller has been described as this year’s Gone Girl and the trailers are very similar.
Gone Girl opened with £4.10m taking £22.01m; The Girl on the Train will be a strong performer for eOne won’t be as big as Gone Girl.
Will be another notch on the belt for Emily Blunt acting career after her breakthrough role as Emily in The Devil Wears Prada ten years ago after starring in several British TV dramas. Followed up with many other stand-out performances including Queen Victoria in 2009’s The Young Victoria but it was Edge of Tomorrow, Into the Woods and Sicario which gave her the chance to become the leading actor.
Surprisingly after so many great performances in recent years her next three will be vocal only Animal Crackers, My Little Pony: The Movie and Gnomeo & Juliet: Sherlock Gnomes before the role she was born to play Mary Poppins Returns released Christmas 2018.
Many were disappointed to see the UK setting of the film was changed by the screenwriter Erin Cresssinda Wilson who also said in an interview with EW.COM it’s far more shameful to drink in US than it is in the UK
Inferno – Third film based on Dan Brown’s novels ten years after the first The Da Vinci Code was released opening with £9.5m and taking £30.2m and the sequel Angels and Demons in 2009 opening £6.05m taking £18.3m.
One of two major films for both Tom Hanks who also has Clint Eastwood’s Sully a year after starring in Steven Spielberg’s excellent Bridge of Spies. Also one of two film for another breakout British actress Felicity Jones wo stars in Rogue One in December and then in A Monster Calls in January 2017 the latest film from The Impossible director J.A. Bayona.
As with Emily Blunt, Felicity Jones starred in many British TV dramas before her breakthrough role starring with the late Anton Yelchin in Like Crazy (also starring Jennifer Lawrence) and the underrated Chalet Girl (watching you knew she was a star in the making was a sweet cheesy rom-com but she made it more) it as her performance as Jane Hawking in The Theory of Everything in 2014 which was her break-through role which she was nominated for Best Actress Golden Globes and Oscars which got Hollywood to notice.
Animation there is Storks and Trolls that both should perform strongly with half term both released around half term.
Tom Cruise is back as Jack Reacher: Never Go Back used to be a big deal when a Tom Cruise film opened but no their not given the event status they used to be maybe next years The Mummy reboot will do that before his back as Ethan Hunt in Mission Impossible 6.
Doctor Strange – the last comic-book film of the year it does feel like we are living in Groundhog Day with so many comic-book releases opening this year all looking and feeling the same and all doing similar at the box office apart from X-Men: Apocalypse; Doctor Strange is likely to be no different why feel no need to go into much detail.
Also released:
Ouija: Origin of Evil (first film opened with £1.36m in October 2014 taking £3.20m), Mel Gibson stars in his first lead role since 2011’s The Beaver in Blood Father, road movie American Honey which received positive reviews premiere in Cannes and action comedy Keeping Up With The Joneses.
November
Five years ago when Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 opened in July 2011 with £23m we thought that was the end of the Harry Potter franchise but this is Hollywood of course it wasn’t the end. As we have the first part of the trilogy of Fantastic Beast and Where to Find Them, with new Harry Potter books and a sold out stage show Daniel Radcliffe and Emma Watson many of gone on to other things but Harry Potter is as big as ever.
Moana the latest Disney original animated film with Dwayne Johnson what else needs to be said another £30m+ box office success?
Are some more interesting films 2016 The Accountant with Ben Affleck and Anna Kendrick.
Romantic thriller Allied with Brad Pitt and Marion Cotillard which looks like a Second World War Mr and Mrs Smith and sci-fi Arrival directed by Denis Villeneuve and starring Amy Adams the trailers have impressed audiences but the title like Arrival eels very generic especially as it was based on a short novel Story of Your Life. After last year The Martian and year before Interstellar audiences like a sci-fi in the autumn.
Always find it very strange when studios change titles of films from their original book title as they are what many know the film as and to change the title just causes confusion. Or maybe with Story of Your Life they were concerned that people might confuse it with One Direction’s Story of My Life?
Also released:
Nocturnal Animals starring Jake Gyllenhaal and Amy Adams from director Tom Ford, A United Kingdom directed by Amma Asante starring David Oyelowo and Rosamund Pike received its UK premiere at the London Film Festival, The Light Between Oceans starring Michael Fassbender, Alicia Vikander directed by The Place Beyond the Pines Derek Cianfrance’s and sequel to the 2003 cult black comedy Bad Santa 2 and the third part of the Rings film series based on the Japanese horror Rings which has been delayed almost as many times as the Friday the 13th reboot.
December
The first Star Wars spin-off Rogue One hasn’t received the same buzz as Star Wars The Force Awakens last year. The fans are of course excited but will non fans be so interested it has also had the issue of reshoots but that story was blown out of control as most films have reshoots it means nothing. But it is unlikely to match the heights of The Force Awakens which post-release did get some back-lash with it feeling more of a remix of A New Home than a new film.
Jennifer Lawrence and Chris Pratt star in sci-fi Passengers both coming off huge franchise this is a film that will show if they can open a film without having the support of a franchise. While Chris Pratt will be back over the next two years with sequels to his franchises Guardians of the Galaxy 2 in 2017 and Jurassic World 2 in 2018 Jennifer Lawrence is now post The Hunger Games she still has Raven/Mystique from X-Men movies.
As with so many films Passengers had a long development process featuring on 2007’s Black List of scripts with Keanu Reeves and Reese Witherspoon who was replaced by Rachel McAdams and in 2012 Weinstein Co acquired US rights at the Cannes Film Festival but after she dropped out a year later its original April 3rd 2015 release date was cancelled and Weinstein also withdrew from the film.
In December 2014 was announced Sony Pictures was originally budgeted as a $35m film but grew to $120m when Sony Pictures signed Jennifer Lawrence $20m and Chris Pratt $12m. The film was caught up early this year in a legally despite with VFX company Digital Domain.
Footage was screened at CinemaCon in April and in June at CineEurope which wowed audiences was then surprising there was no trailer with Ghostbusters but that was similar to many expected the first teaser of Ghostbusters with Star Wars The Force Awakens. Summer is normally the time when studios tease their Christmas films including Almost Christmas and Bad Santa 2. There were rumours Passengers trailer was going to be released in July with Ghostbusters but then went all quiet the first stills featured on ew.com in August. The first trailer will probably with The Magnificent Seven in September which also co-stars Chris Pratt.
While it might seem strange opening two sci-fi films within days of each other Passengers will be targeting female audience and non-geeks of Star Wars with Jennifer Lawrence and Chris Pratt likely to bring similar audience as Gravity. But the question is exhibitors will of course book Rogue One into their main screens so Passengers will be left with the smaller screens. While similar to The Martian last year with The Walk won’t be available in IMAX as Rogue One will likely be keeping IMAX screens till then end of January.
It is always had to compare Christmas releases with any other releases over the year as with the original Jack Reacher opened Boxing Day 2012 and its sequel in October 2016. There are many comparisons of Passengers to 2013’s Gravity with opened with £6.32m but 89.5% came from 3D taking over £30m.
December also sees Tom Hanks team up with Clint Eastwood in Sully. We have Project X for adults in Office Christmas Party and Will Smith trying to repeat The Pursuit of Happyness with Collateral Beauty.
Also released:
Horrors Keep Watching and The Bye Bye Man, animated musical Ballerina and romantic comedy Why Him?
