- Roald Dahl’s Matilda The Musical – £2,102,866 – £10,784,499
Dropped 16.9% in its third weekend
111th biggest third weekend between The Greatest Showman and The Pirates of the Caribbean (close to The Simpsons, Rocketman, The Full Monty and Mrs Doubtfire) and inflation inflated similar to Home Alone, The Lost World: Jurassic Park, Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade and Back to the Future Part II.
Over the last 17 days, Matilda has taken over 80% of its BO from weekends, but as the school holidays start on Friday and as it’s the only film targeting younger audiences Matilda should perform well over the next two weeks. 2014’s Paddington opened the same weekend and took the same BO (£15.2m) in its first 17 days as it took during the Christmas holidays, so Matilda could take £20m+ by the new year.
Sony held charity screenings of the sing-along version on December 17th and releases it in cinemas in January
The stage musical had been hugely popular selling over 11m seats and British cinemagoers love their cinematic musicals Matilda the Musical is the perfect antidote for the cold wet weather and children who have been lacking good family entertainment in cinemas this year. While it’s the only major family film to open until Puss In Boots: The Last Wish (February 3rd).
Third weekends
1990’s The Witches dropped 53% £107,565 (£373,015 inflated) and £1,096,416 51.3% of £2,135,460 (£7,405,372 inflated)
1996’s Matilda dropped 2.9% £957,052 (£2,089,995 inflated) and £4,242,159 41.5% of £10,227,163 (£22,333,913 inflated)
1996’s James And The Giant Peach down 44.6% £246,795 (£538,947 inflated) and £2,311,419 40.2% of £5,750,628 (£12,558,128 inflated)
2005’s Charlie and the Chocolate Factory dropped 35% £2,886,352 (£5,539,602 inflated) and £26,058,703 69.7% of £37,354,584 (£64,081,749 inflated)
2009’s Fantastic Mr Fox dropped 49.2% £1,164,817 (£1,164,817 inflated) and £6,831,974 73.7% of £9,260,892
2016’s The BFG dropped 49% £1,713,088 and £20,207,813 65.8% of £30,694,086
With the Christmas holidays starting on Friday Matilda the Musical should be a big family Christmas film and an alternative to Black Panther Wakanda Forever and Avatar The Way of Water and be an alternative for the World Cup. Should go on and take upwards of £20m.
603rd biggest film between London Has Fallen and Bullet Train (close to Bend It Like Beckham, Flubber, Moonraker and Back to the Future Part II) and 1,060th biggest inflated between Monster-in-Law and Bullet Train (close to Die Hard, Clifford The Big Red Dog, Ruthless People and Blind Date).
- 2.Black Panther Wakanda Forever – £803,799 – £30,830,077
Dropped 60.2% in its fifth weekend; taking 57.3% less than Black Panther (£1,881,691)
123rd biggest 5th weekend between The Fugitive and Rocketman (close to Tomorrow Never Dies, Who Framed Roger Rabbit, Mission Impossible and Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade) and 158th biggest inflated between Shang-Chi and X-Men (close to The Simpsons, The Incredibles, Tenet and Dune.
13th biggest MCU fifth weekend between Spider-Man: Far From Home (£862,507) and Shang-Chi (£779,077) close to Avengers: Endgame, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2, Captain America: Civil War and Iron Man
14th biggest MCU film after 31 days between Spider-Man: Far From Home (£32,909,785) and Thor: Ragnarok (£29,306,199);
15th biggest MCU film between Thor: Ragnarök (£30,936,228) and Spider-Man Homecoming (£30,380,216) close to Captain America: Civil War, Thor: Love and Thunder, Doctor Strange and Shang-Chi.
132nd biggest film between The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 and Notting Hill (close to Incredibles, Gladiator, War of the Worlds and The Da Vinci Code) and 304th biggest inflation inflated between The Grinch and The Living Daylights (£8,160,628) (close to Fast & Furious 6, Prometheus, Superman III (£6,710,000) and Lethal Weapon 3 (£11,878,179).
It’s the 137th film to take £30m+ at the BO since 1993’s Jurassic Park)
25th biggest comic-book movie between Thor: Ragnarok and Spider-Man Homecoming (close to Men In Black, Spider-Man 3, Man of Steel and Spider-Man) and 40th biggest inflated between X-Men: The Last Stand and Superman III (close to The Amazing Spider-Man, X-Men: Days of Future Past, Batman and Robin and Batman Returns.
The 30 MCU films have taken £1.01bn at the UK BO since Iron Man was released in May 2008 (£1.26bn inflated).
2018’s Black Panther dropped 36% in its fifth weekend £1,881,691 taking £42,779,145 85.8% of £49,858,826 with holdover The Greatest Showman #4 £1,059,983 12th weekend and new releases Peter Rabbit £7,273,207 #1 and Tomb Raider £3,081,916 #2.
Wakanda Forever is the last film of Phase 4 it started with Black Widow which has been seen as disappointing, while there was a massive success last Christmas for Spider-Man No Way Home all the other films haven’t lived up to their hype.
While these films might have taken $400m+ in the US and £35m+ these films haven’t grown since 2016’s Captain America: Civil War while have been overshadowed by the critical and BO success of The Batman. So, there are big questions about Phase Five and the three films opening next year, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (the first two Ant-Man films struggled to match the success of other MCU films, but Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 and The Marvels are likely to match the BO of this year’s MCU films. That said there are four DC films (Shazam! Fury of the Gods, The Flash, Blue Beetle and Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom and several Sony Marvel films also opening next year.
- 3. Violent Night – £567,350 – £1,943,276)
Dropped 31% in second weekend; Sunday BO held strongly down only 2% as BO dropped heavily on Saturday due to 23m+ watching England’s World Cup Quarter-final against France.
1,615th biggest second weekend between Smokin’ Aces and A Time To Kill (close to Jingle All the Way, The Black Phone, Cocktail and Déjà Vu) and 1,998th biggest inflated between The Butterfly Effect and The Tall Guy (close to True Romance, Seven Psychopaths, Midnight Run and Atomic Blonde).
Second weekends
2016’s Bad Santa 2 dropped 66% £275,043 #8 and £1,421,671 of £1,961,362.
2004’s Bad Santa dropped 2% £484,196 #5 and £1,282,650 of £1,282,650
Other Christmas action films include Die Hard (£754,902 and £2,025,179 of £3,116,630); Lethal Weapon (£352,961 and £1,208,631 of £2,394,952); Ronin (£521,373 and £1,888,383 of £2,658,365) The Long Kiss Goodnight (£776,220 and £2,485,929 of £4,484,333); The Last Boy Scout (£238,299 and £1,015,469 of £1,678,135); Kiss Kiss Bang Bang (£309,874 and £1,036,457 of £1,443,650)
Violent Night is produced by David Leitch (John Wick, Atomic Blonde, Deadpool 2 and Bullet Train)
- 4. Strange World – £305,802 – £1,779,332
Down 30.9% in its third weekend
After 19 days it’s the third lowest-grossing Disney Animated classic (since 1989) between The Rescuers Down Under (£2,093,160) and Home on the Range (£1,435,295).
Disney have announced Strange World will be released on Disney+ on December 23rd exactly a month after being released this is why Disney couldn’t delay its release in the UK to avoid opening against Matilda. In 2017 Disney delayed Coco to January 2018 to avoid its opening against Paddington 2, instead, they screened Olaf’s Christmas Adventure the first week of December with Frozen with tickets £1m (£1,115,689 #5 from 611 screens with 1.11m admissions that was more than Daddy’s Home 2 #1 £4,919,051 and Paddington 2 £4,545,218 3rd weekend).
That said Encanto took a third (£1.75m) of its £7.2m BO in the UK after being released on Disney+ (£5.2m). Likewise, many other films have found audiences in cinemas many weeks after they were available to watch at home and last weekend had Elf, Muppets Christmas Carol, Home Alone and The Polar Express all finding audiences in cinemas.
The 33 Disney animated classics have taken £450m at the UK BO since 1989 and £720m inflation inflated. Disney would regularly re-release their classic animated films and they were always very popular in cinemas as they found new audiences each time the reimaginations Disney have made over the last decade is just a new way to show their classic films to new audiences.
Down 42.3% in the fourth weekend
45th biggest film of 2022 between The Railway Children Return and Fisherman’s Friends 2 (close to Mrs Harris Goes To Paris, The Woman King and Licorice Pizza.
1,812th biggest film between Meet the Spartans and The Awakenings (close to Jackie, Surrogates, Peter’s Friends and Wish You Were Here).
Disney have announced Strange World will be released on Disney+ on December 23rd exactly a month after being released this is why Disney couldn’t delay its release in the UK to avoid opening against Matilda. In 2017 Disney delayed Coco to January 2018 to avoid its opening against Paddington 2, instead, they screened Olaf’s Christmas Adventure the first week of December with Frozen with tickets £1m (£1,115,689 #5 from 611 screens with 1.11m admissions that was more than Daddy’s Home 2 #1 £4,919,051 and Paddington 2 £4,545,218 3rd weekend).
That said Encanto took a third (£1.75m) of its £7.2m BO in the UK after being released on Disney+ (£5.2m). Likewise, many other films have found audiences in cinemas many weeks after they were available to watch at home and last weekend had Elf, Muppets Christmas Carol, Home Alone and The Polar Express all finding audiences in cinemas.
The 33 Disney animated classics have taken £450m at the UK BO since 1989 and £720m inflation inflated. Disney would regularly re-release their classic animated films and they were always very popular in cinemas as they found new audiences each time the reimaginations Disney have made over the last decade is just a new way to show their classic films to new audiences.
Also released
The bottom half of the top 10 was made up mostly of re-releases od classic Christmas family films.
Elf (Re: 2021) #6 £148,970 up 84% from 426 screens taking £955,647
Home Alone (Re: 2018) #8 £119,533 up 55% from 320 screens taking £1,483,634
The Muppet Christmas Carol (30th Anniversary) #9 £94,221 up 34% from 406 screens taking £172,735
The Polar Express (Re: 2014) #10 £88,882 up 466% from 116 screens taking £662,134
These films had a couple of screenings each over the weekend while Top Gun: Maverick took £81,820 #11 up 3,427% in its 29th weekend in 316 screens including IMAX screens taking £83,575,590.
After being #5 on Friday taking £25k would have expected it to squeeze into the top 10 instead it just missed out £7,062
Most people expect Avatar: The Way of Water to take more than Top Gun: Maverick, but if it does it will probably do so in 2023.
UK box office in detail
This weekend’s top 10 box office took £4,557,646 down 36.7% from last weekend’s £6,230,511: 556,449 admissions down 27.9% from 771,103
1,037th biggest top 10 of the last 21 years (out of 1,078) between 24 September 2021 #1 Shangi-Chi £1,558,002 (34.2% of top 10) and 04 March 2005 #1 Boogeyman £788,439 (17.5% of top 10) and 1,049th the biggest inflation inflated between 24 September 2021 #1 24 September 2021 #1 Shangi-Chi £1,558,002 (34.2% of top 10) and 04 September 2020 #1 Tenet £2,151,490 (57.4% of top 10).
Top 3 took £3,474,015 72.6% of the top 10; Roald Dahl’s Matilda The Musical 46.1% (£2,102,866); Black Panther Wakanda Forever 24.2% (£803,799); Violent Night 12.4% (£567,350)
Taking xx% of the top 10 it’s the 378th highest percentage #1 between 17 April 2015 Fast & Furious 7 £3,039,720 (17.6%) and 21 December 2012 The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey £5,979,241 (40.6%).
Down 12.6% from 2021; (£5,216,792); West Side Story (£1,297,786); Clifford The Big Red Dog (£1,293,354); Home Alone (Re) (£122,999); The Nutcracker – ROH, London 2021 (£89,705); Sword Art Online The Movie (£64,612); #1 West Side Story £1,297,786 1st week 678 screens (24.9% of top 10)
2020 COVID Second Lockdown
Down 71.9% 2019 (£16,232,465); Jumanji: The Next Level (£9,464,661); Black Christmas (£283,507); The Nutcracker – Bolshoi Ballet 2019 (£187,697); #1 Jumanji: The Next Level 1st week £9,464,661 637 screens (58.3% of top 10)
Down 53.7% 2018:(£9,850,637); The Old Man & the Gun (£317,831); Sorry to Bother You (£250,453); The Nutcracker – ROH, London 2018/19 (£191,828); Die Hard (30th Anniversary) (£86,628); Tulip Fever (£49,539); White Boy Rick (£30,090); #1 Ralph Breaks the Internet £2,446,583 2nd week 619 screens 39% drop (24.8% of top 10)
Down 17.4% 2017: (£5,515,127); The Nutcracker – ROH, London 2017/18 (£137,862); Stronger (£102,379); Better Watch Out (£44,305); Brigsby Bear (£36,778); The Muppet Christmas Carol (Re: 2017) (£36,287); #1 Paddington 2 5th week 3rd 572 screens £1,690,027 42% drop (30.6% of top 10)
Down 46.2% 2016: (£8,465,385); Office Christmas Party (£1,198,176); Snowden (£209,352); The Birth of a Nation (£135,162); Life, Animated (£25,612); The Pass (£18,673); #1 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them £2,734,960 4th week 620 screens 40% drop (32.3% of the top 10)
Down 22.8% 2015; (£5,906,053); Grandma (£35,916); By the Sea (£24,770); When Harry Met Sally (Re: 2015) (£4,975); #1 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 £1,286,244 4th week 513 screens 43% drop (21.7% of top 10)
Down 73.3% 2014: (£17,095,720); The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies (£9,753,642); Tinker Bell and the Legend of the NeverBeast (£395,454); Merchants of Doubt (£323); #1 The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies £9,753,642 1st week 594 screens (57.1% of top 10)
Down 57.2% 2013: (£10,647,204); Frozen (£4,704,940); Homefront (£440,306); Nebraska (£151,332); Old Boy (£94,818); Black Nativity (£61,324); Kill Your Darlings (£38,984); Getaway (£26,467); #1 Frozen £4,704,940 1st week 505 screens (44.2% of top 10)
Down 38.3% 2012 (£7,384,684); Seven Psychopaths (£1,121,679); So Undercover (£99,340); The Man with the Iron Fists (£49,072); The Oranges (£18,513); Celeste and Jesse Forever (£6,915); Gremlins (Re: 2012) (£1,147); #1 Rise of the Guardians £1,602,689 2nd week 1st #1 495 screens 19% drop (21.7% of top 10)
Down 39.1% from 2011 (£7,474,721); Puss in Boots (£1,975,758); New Year’s Eve (£1,285,552); A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas (£183,798); Another Earth (£90,950); #1 Puss in Boots £1,975,758 1st week 1st #1 510 screens (26.4% of top 10)
Down 43.1% from 2010: (£8,015,202); Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader (£2,460,118); The Tourist (£1,341,143); Somewhere (£125,581); The Shop Around the Corner (Re) (£8,038); #1 Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader £2,460,118 1st week 536 screens (30.6% of top 10)
Down 33.2% 2009; (£6,826,766); Where The Wild Things Are (£883,990); Carriers (£69,224); The Stepfather (£40,056); The Red Shoes (re) (£13,336); #1 A Christmas Carol £1,544,226 6th week 2nd #1 week 1 and week 5 7% drop 434 screens (22.6% of top 10)
Down 47.9% 2008; (£8,742,920); The Day the Earth Stood Still (£2,752,132); Inkheart (£700,146); Dean Spanley (£42,898); White Christmas (re) (£7,518); #1 The Day the Earth Stood Still £2,752,132 1st week 465 screens (31.5% of top 10)
Down 57.3% 2007: (£10,663,935); The Golden Compass (£7,243,984); Code Name: The Cleaner (£61,734); Southland Tales (£18,241); #1 The Golden Compass £7,243,984 1st week 507 screens (68% of top 10)
Down 63.7% 2006; (£12,568,238); Happy Feet (£3,689,166); The Holiday (£2,826,520); The Covenant (£181,365); The Nativity Story (£78,553); Bugsy Malone (re) (£231); #1 Happy Feet £3,689,166 1st week 445 screens (29.3% of top 10)
Down 65.7% 2005 (£13,287,703); The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe (£8,884,111); March of the Penguins (£183,798); #1 The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe 1st week £8,884,111 498 screens (66.9% of top 10)
Down 55.8% from 2004 (£10,315,744); Blade: Trinity (£2,633,626); The Polar Express (expansion) (£2,136,898); Phantom of the Opera (£1,219,310); Garden State (£128,366); #1 Blade: Trinity £2,633,626 1st 329 screens (25.5% of top 10)
Down 37.5% from 2003 (£7,288,995); The Fighting Temptations (£151,994); Touching the Void (£115,332); Dead End (£52,130); Lord of the Rings: The 2 Towers (Sp. Ed) (£42,378); #1 Love Actually £2,273,706 4th week 486 screens 29% drop (31.2% of top 10)
Down 46.6% 2002 (£8,535,252); Deathwatch (£334,657); The Dancer Upstairs (£61,622); 8 Crazy Nights (£48,440); #1 Die Another Day £3,426,623 3rd week 443 screens 36% drop (40.1% of top 10)
Down 28.4% 2001 (£6,363,002); The 51st State (£913,239); Riding In Cars With Boys (£237,279); Christmas Carol: The Movie (£171,576); #1 Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone £3,345,310 4th week 501 screens 42% drop (52.6% of top 10);
Next weekend 2021 (£34,452,923); Spider-Man No Way Home (£31,899,232); The Nutcracker – Bolshoi Ballet 2021 (£85,417); #1 Spider-Man No Way Home £31,899,232 1st week 679 screens (92.6% of top 10)
US Box Office
- Black Panther Wakanda Forever – Disney
Dropped 35.9% in the fifth weekend $11.23m and $409.81m
Wakanda Forever became the first since Tenet (COVID) and Black Panther in 2018 to be #1 for 5 weeks (Avatar was the previous film to be #1 for 5 weeks). It should be a sign of massive success but Wakanda Forever stayed #1 due to all films since failing to find a wide audience.
Took 58.3% less than Black Panther’s 5th weekend ($26.65m then the 3rd biggest after Avatar and The Force Awakens (American Sniper and Grand Torino had bigger but after platform openings) in comparison to Avengers Endgame took $17.2m and Top Gun: Maverick $29.61m) 33% less than its total after 5 weeks ($605.02m) 86.4% of total $700.6m, Wakanda Forever is expected to take about $440m about 40% less.
87th biggest 5th weekend between Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom $11.26m and Batman $11.16m; close to The Batman #95 $11m; Deadpool #100 $10.9m; Suicide Squad #129 $9.9m; Thor: Ragnarok #130 $9.8m.
35th biggest film between Doctor Strange 2 and Iron Man 3; 98th biggest inflation inflated between Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and Transformers: Dark of the Moon; 3rd biggest 2022 between Doctor Strange 2 and Jurassic World: Dominion; 12th biggest comic-book movie between Doctor Strange 2 and Iron Man 3; 21st biggest Disney between Doctor Strange 2 and Iron Man 3.
Wakanda Forever has taken $410m in the US and almost $800m worldwide for almost any other film this would be seen as a massive success but after all the rave premiere reactions there were high expectations that it could match the BO of the original film. Wakanda Forever might be 5% ahead of Doctor Strange 2 after 5 weeks but the only real comparison film is Black Panther. But it will be impossible to compare Avatar 2 with Avatar as it will open more than double the first film, so comparisons can only be after a couple of weeks to see how it holds.
That’s the problem with the majority of films today and will be a similar issue with Avatar 2 as has a similar premiere reaction but audience reaction is far more mixed and after the pixie dust fades away are left with films without the sustenance of their predecessor so they don’t have similar legs. As the same analysts who believe Avatar 2 will have similar legs as the original also believed many other films would play far longer than they did as the problem is when you have films targetting under 35s they will quickly move on to the next big thing.
With Black Panther 2 and Avatar 2 opening in Nov/Dec rival studios were nervous about opening anything against them fearing they would cannibalise any other films but Sony opened successfully Jumanji: The Next Level with $59m the week before Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker opened $177.3m in December 2019, and 2018’s Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse opened $35.3m before Aquaman. Avatar 2 won’t play to all audiences as even those who raved about it are unlikely to attract new fans.
EntTelligence reports the average ticket price for normal formats is $11.19 while IMAX/PLF is $15.64 but NATO hasn’t updated their average price since 2019 of $9.16.
30 MCU films have taken $11bn in the US ($370m average) and $28.1bn worldwide ($938m average)
Last weekend BO was the second worst weekend of the year $33.25m after $30.79m taken over Jan 28-30th Spider-Man No Way Home #1 for 5th weekend split across 7 weeks. Of course, exhibitors will say what’s the problem our saviour Avatar: The Way of Water opens next week, but the problem is cinema should be more than half a dozen films taking 40% of the year’s BO, especially when over 900 films are being released every year.
Took $11.8m from 50 territories and $358m total and $767.8m worldwide;8th biggest global film since cinemas reopened after the pandemic after Spider-Man No Way Home $1.92bn; Top Gun Maverick $1.49bn; Jurassic World Dominion $1bn; Doctor Strange 2 $955.8m; Minions: The Rise of Gru $939.2m; No Time To Die $774.2m; The Batman $770.8m; Thor Love And Thunder $761m
UK $36.5m; Mexico $34.1m; France $38.9m; Brazil $19.6m; Australia $18.1m; taken $47.76m globally from IMAX
In comparison, Black Panther took $30m in its 5th weekend taking $577.1m internationally 89.2% of $646.85m and $605.02m in the US 86.4% of $700.06m and $1.183bn WW 87.9% of $1.346bn WW
107th biggest worldwide between The Da Vinci Code and The Batman; 5th biggest 2022 between Minions: The Rise of Gru and The Batman; 27th biggest comic-book movie between Guardians of the Galaxy and The Batman; 37th biggest Disney between Guardians of the Galaxy and Maleficent.
- Violent Night – Universal Pictures
Dropped 35.1% in the second weekend taking $8.72m and $26.71m
The trailer has been viewed 115m times since launching October 5th and was screened before Halloween Ends, Pray For The Devil and also Black Adam and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.
Other Christmas action films include Die Hard (took $83m); Lethal Weapon ($65.2m); Ronin ($41.6m); RED ($90.3m); The Long Kiss Goodnight ($33.4m); 1989’s We’re No Angels ($10.5m); 1994’s Trapped in Paradise ($6.02m); 2005’s Kiss Kiss Bang Bang ($4.24m)
2003’s Bad Santa dropped 43.2% by $7.1m and $27.2m of $60.06m and $76.49m worldwide
2016’s Bad Santa 2 dropped 46.8% by $3.28m and $14.28m of $17.78m and $25.08m worldwide
2015’s Krampus dropped 48.3% by $8.42m and $28.56m of $42.72m and $61.34m worldwide
1991’s The Last Boy Scout dropped 29.1% by $5.61m and $16.33m of $59.5m
While it was also being compared to 2021’s Nobody dropped 56% $2.99m and $11.8m of $27.56m and $57.51m worldwide
Took $4.6m from 75 territories $15.1m total and $41.8m worldwide
- Strange World – Disney
Dropped 25.6% in the third weekend taking $3.78m and $30.63m
The 34 Disney Animated Classic films have taken $4bn in the US and $10.7bn inflation inflated.
333rd biggest Disney film between Blank Check and Bad Company
The most recent Disney animated original film 2021’s Encanto dropped 24.1% in the third weekend taking $9.98m and $71.9m of $96.09m and $245.78m worldwide; 2017’s Coco dropped 33% taking $18.45m and $135.65m of $210.46m and $807.81m worldwide
Strange World is expected to lose up to $147m, many have questioned the decision by Disney to give it a theatrical release but then Hocus Pocus 2 and Disenchanted both went to Disney+.
Took $3.7m from 43 territories and $23m and $53.5m worldwide; The film wasn’t released in over 20 territories due to LGBTQ+ scenes Disney refused to cut.
- Empire of Light – Searchlight Pictures
Opened with $163,405k #21; received mixed reviews (43% Rotten Tomatoes)
Opened in 110 screens which means it’s likely to be DOA as normally a film like Empire of Light would open on a platform in 4 screens and then either expand into 2,000 within a week or slowly expand over several weeks.
It’s another disappointing performance of a Searchlight Pictures film released since studio was acquired by Disney. It’s the 11th film released by Searchlight Pictures taking $92m in the US (an average of $9.2m and $254m worldwide (an average of $25.4m) the average per film is half that when it was Fox Searchlight Pictures.
So you have to ask why Searchlight Pictures are opening the film on 110 screens as it’s unlikely to expand further. It is also another adult drama from an award-winning director that struggled to find an audience this autumn after Armageddon Time and The Fabelmans.
When Empire of Light opens in the UK in January on Monday, January 9th it will likely go wide in 600+ screens, as the film will likely perform far stronger in the UK.
Empire of Light is Sam Mendes’s 9th film and first since 2019’s 1917
1917 opened on platform $576,216 from 11 screens expanding wide after 2 weeks taking $159.2m
2009’s Away We Go opened on a platform at $130,411 from 4 screens taking 5 weeks to get to its widest 506 screens taking $9.45m
2008’s Revolutionary Road opened on platform $189,911 from 3 screens taking 5 weeks to get to its widest 1,058 screens taking $22.91m
1999’s American Beauty opened on platform $861,531 taking 4 weeks to go wide taking $130.09m
2005’s Jarheads opened wide at $27.72m taking $62.65m
2002’s Road to Perdition opened wide with $22.07m taking $104.45m
He also of course directed Bond films Skyfall and Spectre.
- The Fabelmans – Universal Pictures
Dropped 7.7% in the fifth-weekend #7 taking $1.17m and $7.32m
Performed similarly to Barry Levinson’s autobiographical 1990 film Avalon taking $1.72m down 19.4% in its fifth weekend (after two weeks on platform release from 7 screens) in 635 screens and $8.82m of $15.74m. But of course, the average ticket price in 1990 was $4.22m now it’s $9.38 125% more so impossible to compare the two.
It will be released on VOD next week.
Steven Spielberg has talked about the evils of HBO Max and Warner Bros’ decision to release their 2021 films on HBO same time as a theatrical release but if audiences aren’t going to see these films in the same numbers they did a decade ago in cinemas then studios must give them alternative release to try to get them to be seen by as wide an audience as they deserve to be seen.
6 weeks before COVID closed cinemas, adult drama 1917 was a huge box office hit in the US and globally, but since cinemas reopened older audiences have been very slow to return. But despite many articles between March and July 2020 saying this would be an issue nothing was done about it as exhibitors focused on the under 35s. While over 35s did return for No Time To Die in Sept/Oct 2021 they have been very selective with the other films they see. A film like The Fabelmans shouldn’t need teenagers to make it a success.
Many say Universal weren’t at fault with the release and marketing for the film but as with Armageddon Time and Empire of Light, these films need to be much slower expanded, as The Fabelmans lost its momentum after the first week staying on 4 screens for two weeks and then expanding into 638 in the third weekend. It should have expanded much slower to avoid all the other adult drama films opening close to it and then expanded in early January. The problem is Universal had already locked in a VOD release for mid-December.
UK Box Office Top 10
UK Box Office Preview
20th Century Fox feared Avatar would underperform so they released Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel the following week. Avatar opened #1 in week 1 (£8,509,050 only 21% was from 2D), lost #1 in its second weekend with The Squeakquel (playing to younger family audience) while Avatar dropped 55% taking £3,828,123. Few would have imagined that Avatar would take £4m+ for the next 8 weeks returning to #1 for 8 of the next 9 weeks and go on to take £93,442,625 (£140m inflated).
In 2009 Avatar had the third biggest opening of the year after Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince and The Twilight Saga: New Moon and the 40th biggest opening between War of the Worlds and High School Musical 3 (close to Die Another Day, Transformers, Night at the Museum, Star Wars: The Phantom Menace) and opened less than I Am Legend £11,009,365 2 years earlier. Had the 9th biggest Fri-Sun opening between Transformers and High School Musical 3.
Took £1,838,459 from Thursday taking 21.61% of its opening and £6,670,591 Fri-Sun. (There was heavy snow across the UK over the weekend) only 21% of its opening from 2D despite playing in many more 2D screens.
Now Avatar is the 128th biggest opening between Kingsman: The Golden Circle and Bad Neighbours and 46th without previews between Fast & Furious 6 and Star Trek: Into Darkness and is the 112th biggest inflation inflated (£12,638,442) between Night at the Museum and The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2.
The big question is whether it will top Avatar BO and whether will it have similar legs, as the sequel will open about twice as much as the original it’s unlikely to play as long as the first film. That said with a lack of major releases in January if it doesn’t come closer to the first film January is going to be a soft start of the year. As I’ve said many times the fact that the sequel opens 13 years later with 50%+ ticket inflation and many exhibitors have increased prices for the film it should take more than Avatar
Would expect Avatar: The Way of Water to open with more than double Avatar’s opening due to 50%+ ticket inflation, the growth of IMAX screens in the UK from (9 in 2009) to 63 today (BFI IMAX had 99% capacity) along with 4DX, ScreenX, and PLF. What will be interesting to see is if audiences embrace 3D as much as they did with the first film.
Avatar had the record of highest advance bookings taking £607,000 selling 47,487 tickets with an average ticket price of £12.90; the average ticket price for Avatar 2 is £23 (80% more)
In 2009 Avatar opened in 9 IMAX cinemas (Birmingham IMAX Millennium Point, National Media Museum IMAX Bradford, Cardiff, Gateshead Metrocentre, Glasgow Science Centre, ODEON Greenwich, BFI London IMAX, Manchester The Printworks and ODEON Wimbledon). While Avatar The Way of Water will play in 63+ with only a couple of the cinemas giving the full IMAX experience audiences expect despite all of them charging full IMAX prices (£20).
In 2008 there were only 69 screens in the UK that could play digital 3D when Avatar opened 375.
In 2009 Avatar had much more competition as few expected Avatar to be a massive success it was so Alvin and the Chipmunks 2 and Sherlock Holmes opened the week after, both opening strongly with £5.34m and £3.1m. In its third weekend increased by 55% taking £5,940,479 but other holdovers Sherlock Holmes (£3,439,616 up 12%; Alvin and The Chipmunks II £2,457,029 up 83% (not including previews); Nine (£780,255), St. Trinian’s 2 £671,480 up 54% with new release Did You Hear About The Morgan’s opening with £1,155,060.
A lot has changed since Avatar opened, in 2009 were 9 IMAX cinemas in the UK and BFI IMAX sold an average 99% capacity at £12 (prices at BFI IMAX will be about £22). IMAX took 7% of the UK BO of Avatar, more than it took from 2D in 300 screens. Avatar 2 will open in 63+ IMAX cinemas in the UK, 400+ in the US and 300+ elsewhere worldwide.
With ticket prices doubling since Avatar opened in 2009 the sequel needs to take more than double the original film to be as successful which is highly unlikely, so what’s success for Avatar 2? The original was #1 for 7 weeks in a row taking £4m+ for all those weeks after opening with £8.5m, Avatar 2 will double. (That said the big question will be its Sunday BO as 1.2bn+ worldwide will be watching the World Cup Final in Qatar).
Looking at a couple of UK cinemas bookings look strong for 3D PLF and IMAX but then soft for 2D and 3D on regular screens, while at the BFI IMAX only two shows are currently sold out (Wednesday) while Avatar had many. This could be as IMAX is there are many more IMAX cinemas in the UK, so people don’t feel they need to see it at the BFI IMAX despite these newer cinemas not giving the same IMAX experience.
It will be interesting to see how Avatar 2 opens on Friday will the running time affect Friday’s BO as many used the running time as a reason Black Panther 2 didn’t perform as well during the week. Opening day figures are hard to come by so impossible to make any direct comparisons
The question is how many weeks Avatar will: The Way of Water stay at #1 as Empire of Light (January 9th 7-day opening) and Babylon (January 20th) are the only two films that could open #1 with Puss In Boots: The Last Wish (February 3rd)
Expected to open with more than double the opening of the first film including $180m+ US $100m+ China and $20m+ UK) $525m+ the 6th biggest global opening similar to Jurassic World. That said, what impact will 1.2bn+ worldwide watching the World Cup Final on Sunday, December 18 has on its opening?
It will open on more than 52,000 screens worldwide Disney’s widest ever, started its global opening on Wednesday in France, Korea, Germany and Italy, the day after the embargo ended, after raving social media premiere reactions reviews have been mixed with all highlighting how stunning it looks but many having issues with the plot which is the same as the original film and the clunky dialogue.
Avatar The Way of Water will be the first major US film opening in China since F9 in May 2019 (opened $136m taking $217m) Avatar was huge in China opening with $41m taking $203m and then another $57m in March 2021; Avatar 2 sold over 10m tickets within first 6 hours and 13.8m in its opening and is expected to take $500m+.
3D sales Europe 81%; Asia 70% and Latin America 65%.
Advance sales were also released within days of going on sale in India but for the US IMAX’s Richard Gelfond said on November 29 ‘pre-sale numbers for Avatar can’t be made public yet but “It’s one of the highest pre-sale levels we’ve ever seen.” Surely if numbers are as big as they say why not release them?
At the London premiere, James Cameron said “Theatres are full again and moviegoers of the world have declared resoundingly that we need this. We need this ability to gather together to sit in these great dark spaces and to dream together with our eyes wide open in a cinema. To me tonight is not about the new Avatar film. It’s about cinema, and here you are in your black-tie finery. It’s a celebration of this art form that we love so much. It’s back it’s alive and it’s as great as it’s ever been.”
The immediate social media reaction was what you would expect gushing about how visually stunning it is and never bet against James Cameron, but while his films are always visually stunning the issue is always the storyline. Highlighted Titanic winning 11 Oscars, winning Best Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Cinematography, and many technical awards but not for the script.
James Cameron is passionate about cinema, but part of this passion is similar to Quentin Tarantino who takes elements from other films. While Avatar shared a similar plot to Dances with Wolves and Ferngully critics have said he took many elements from the original film. All the reviews for Avatar 2 have highlighted the technical aspects of the film the plot and dialogue and the rave premiere reactions became a three-star review. The problem when you have visionary technology lead directors like Cameron, Lucas, Jackson, Nolan is they struggle with expanding their plot ideas into a three-hour film that often has poorly written scripts.
In an interview, James Cameron described making Avatar sequels as “the worst business case in movie history.” As the industry gets caught up in the hype when seeing films like Black Panther Wakanda Forever opening with $181m in the US and taking $287m after 10 days in the US and $550m worldwide. As these films have massive budgets attached to Wakanda Forever $250m+ and then the same again on marketing it will need to take over $1bn globally.
James Cameron admitted Avatar: The Way of Water will need to be the 4th/5th film worldwide to break even (currently Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens $2.07bn and Avengers: Infinity War $2.05bn).
Of course, it’s a different story for cinemas as exhibitors will be desperate for Avatar: The Way of Water to match the BO of the original, but 12 years on with 50%+ ticket inflation and the huge increase in IMAX screens globally, the massive hype and little competition it should do?
If Avatar 2 needs to take $2bn+ to break even, then Fast X with a budget of a third more will need to take even more. Early tracking for Avatar 2 was between $150m-$175m more than twice as much as Avatar ($77m) but the question for the sequel (as with all sequels) is not how big it opens but how big it drops the second weekend as Avatar only dropped 1.8% Christmas weekend while The Force Awakens dropped 40%; Rogue One 59%: Aquaman 23%; Rise of Skywalker 59%; No Way Home 57%.
Has taken $38m in advance bookings more than double Top Gun: Maverick and Jurassic World: Dominion but less than Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Doctor Strange 2 with 74% 3D while also strong IMAX but surprisingly not at the level of Marvel as must be targetting an older audience.
If Avatar 2 needs to take $2bn to break even this will surely have partly to do with James Cameron’s first dollar gross deal. He made $350m+ from Avatar and $97m from Titanic, according to Deadline, had a ‘significant gross percentage’ for those films, this will surely be much more for Avatar sequels.
It will likely open with about $450m worldwide (more if opens day and date in China) this would be the 9th biggest global opening similar to Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 ($483.2m); Captain Marvel ($456.7m); Doctor Strange 2 ($452m); Star Wars: The Last Jedi ($450.8m); Batman Vs Superman ($422.5m)
If Avatar 2 is to match the BO of the first film it needs to have similar legs playing through to February but if The Force Awakens couldn’t do so it’s going to be much harder for Avatar 2 as the lengthy running time will impact multiple viewings, especially during weekdays (have seen this with Wakanda Forever).
In 2009 there were 18 different versions of Avatar created for the US and 92 internationally in 47 languages, which included 52 subtitled and 18 dubbed versions on film, 58 subtitled and 36 dubbed versions in digital 3D, 9 subtitled and 8 dubbed versions in digital 2D and 23 subtitled and 15 dubbed versions for IMAX. James Cameron made the film using three aspect ratios Scope (2:39:1), flat (1:85:1), and IMAX (1:43:1) and released on 17,000 35mm screens, 7,382 digital 3D screens, 553 digital 2D screens, and 272 IMAX 3D screens. (178 US IMAX screens and 83 internationally)
Avatar The Way of Water will be over 160 different versions globally including 3D, 4K, HFR48, ScreenX and 4DX and will play in 400+ IMAX cinemas in the US and 200+ internationally.
In the US Avatar opened with $77m in 7,000+ screens at 3,452 cinemas, it was then the highest-grossing opening ever for a film, not a sequel, a remake or a spinoff. It was also the second highest-grossing December opening weekend after I Am Legend ($77m).
It took $3.53m from midnight previews with 3D taking 85% of BO (in comparison I Am Legend took $1.7m. Avatar opened in 3,129 3D screens at 2,038 cinemas taking $55m (72% of opening) and IMAX took $9.5m (12.4%) from 178 cinemas.
Internationally opened in 17,222 screens in 106 territories (not Japan, China, Italy, Poland, Argentina, and Uruguay); 5,360 3D/3D Imax screens including 81 IMAX 3D (taking $4.1m) opening with $232.1m and $242.5m worldwide including $54.8m from 3D.
Internationally opened with $164.5m in five days from 106 territories (opening didn’t include Japan (opened a week later) and China and Italy (in January); Played in 14,505 screens, 26% 3D accounting for 56% of the opening. Taking $241.6m globally was the 9th highest grossing of all time and the biggest for a non-sequel.
In 2009 The Princess and the Frog took $12.2m #2; The Blind Side $10.02 #3 and Did You Hear About the Morgan? Opened $6.6m #4. Avatar The Way of Water holdovers will likely be closer to The Twilight Saga: New Moon #5 $4.4m and Invictus #6 $4.2m as rival studios have opted to hold back their other Christmas films to the following week (Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Monday 21st) and I Wanna Dance with Somebody and Babylon (Wednesday 23rd). Both films target different audiences who don’t target audience for Avatar 2 children and women.
After 45 days of release, Avatar overtook Titanic to become the biggest film globally $2.039bn and went on to take $749.76m in the US (held #1 for 7 weeks; Titanic was #1 for 15 weeks), $1.99bn internationally and $2.743bn worldwide. It remained the biggest film globally until Avengers Endgame overtook it after 91 days of release, but after Avengers Endgame opened globally with $1.2bn over its opening weekend many expected it to overtake Avatar many weeks earlier and take over $3bn. Avatar retained its #1 global status after it was re-released in China in March 2021. (Avatar took $262m in China).
While Avatar 2 will have massive hype the problem is the bubble burst very quickly with the first film as it was all hype and technology and just a remake of Dances with Wolves and FernGully, while it couldn’t take the film seriously after South Park’s Dances with Smurfs.
The industry is far too quick to call a film a hit. and post-pandemic so many films are now getting stuck on $400m+ WW which would have taken $600m+ two years ago. if Black Adam loses up to $100m then surely Dune will take a similar amount and lose money, but Warner greenlit the sequel to save face as surely Dune and Tenet were both expected to take upwards of $800m WW before COVID. but post COVID industry seems to lower expectations of what a film needs to take as they have gotten caught up in the hype of the opening weekend ignoring the fact that most of this film will drop much more heavily in their second weekends than they did before COVID.
Opening in two weeks
- I Wanna Dance With Somebody – Sony Pictures
Biographical musical about Whitney Houston starring Naomi Ackie, Stanley Tucci, Ashton Sanders, Tamara Tunie, Nafessa Williams, and Clarke Peters and directed by Kasi Lemmons.
The script written by Anthony McCarten previously wrote the scripts for The Two Popes, Darkest Hour, Bohemian Rhapsody, and The Theory Of Everything winning lead actor Oscars for Rami Malek, Gary Oldman and Eddie Redmayne.
Tristar Pictures acquired rights to the film in August 2020 dating it to Thanksgiving 2022
Music biopics include
1993’s Tina, What’s Love Got To Do With It opened £471,570 (£1,187,005 inflated) taking £3,703,961 (£9,323,366 inflated)
2019’s Rocketman opened £5.3m, taking £23.5m
2015’s Straight Outta Compton opened £2,498,231 taking £8,043,283.
2006’s Walk the Line opened £1,111,142 taking £9,737,493 (£16,155,841 inflated)
2022’s Elvis opened £4,023,572 taking £27,492,430
2005’s Ray opening #7 with £485,005 from 225 screens taking £1,592,017
2007’s Dreamgirls opened £1,329,817 (£2,127,707 inflated) taking £3,475,271 (£5,560,434 inflated)
2018’s Bohemian Rhapsody opened £9.5m taking £55.4m
2003’s 8 Mile opened £4,440,334 (£7,520,566 inflated) taking £13,254,812 (£22,449,591 inflated)
The film opens exactly 30 years to the day of the opening of The Bodyguard with £2,348,330 (£5,911,061 inflated) taking £17,001,069 (took 7.24x opening) £42,793,968 inflated; it opens #2 behind Home Alone 2 but in its second weekend became #1 for 5 weeks taking £1m+ for 5 weeks.
Sony Pictures screened the film early showing they had a strong belief in the film and that the film will play to an audience not interested in going to Pandora.
