- Avatar: The Way of Water – £4,974,004 – E25,034,122
Dropped 55.5% in its second weekend
Took £2.55m (27.2% drop); £2.55m Saturday (40% drop) (Sunday £83k Christmas Day)
Monday £2.3m up 4.5% (£2.2m); Tuesday £3.4m up 54% (£2.2m)
7th biggest second weekend of 2022 between Sing 2 and Minions: The Rise of Gru and 8th biggest second weekend since cinemas reopened after lockdowns between Sing 2 and Spider-Man: No Way Home.
84th biggest second weekend between Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason and The Da Vinci Code (close to Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, Star Wars: The Phantom Menace, Gravity and Titanic) and 179th biggest inflated opening between Thor: Ragnarok and Crocodile Dundee (Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade, Back to the Future Part II, Batman and Mission: Impossible).
185th biggest film in the UK between The Day After Tomorrow and Kingsman: The Golden Circle (close to The Lost World: Jurassic Park, I am Legend, The Sixth Sense and Hancock) and 404th biggest inflation inflated between Lilo & Stitch and Lara Croft: Tomb Raider (close to Beauty and the Beast (1992), Gremlins 2: The New Batch, Apollo 13 and Interview with the Vampire).
In 2009 Avatar took 85%+ from 3D with IMAX (9 screens) and 2D (300) taking about 7% each but 2D has taken far more of the BO for Avatar 2 (41%) with 47% 3D and 12% IMAX. Much has been made about Avatar 2’s IMAX BO but the share of BO should be much higher for IMAX in the UK with the film playing on 45 more IMAX screens than Avatar (9).
2 weeks ago, most expected Avatar 2 to challenge Star Wars: The Force Awakens as the biggest film in the UK, this was similar to when Avengers Endgame opened with £43.4m. Instead, it’s playing similarly to Star Wars Rogue One £66m.
It’s hard to make any direct comparisons between Avatar 2 with any other film and opening 13 years after the first film it’s impossible to compare it to the original film. While many talks about it playing similarly to Avatar and Titanic, the marketplace was very different then audiences weren’t desperate to see it over opening weekend, so film BO was strong and steady for months, whereas in Avengers Endgame 90% of BO taken within 24 days; Avatar was similar to Top Gun: Maverick 57% Vs 65% but Spider-Man No Way Home 1%.
There are now many more IMAX cinemas than there were for Avatar, the UK has gone from 9 in 2009 to 52 and prices for these cinemas are £20+ with retrofitted IMAX £23 almost the same price as BFI IMAX £24. With recliners and PLF cinemas now having London prices across the UK, Odeon recently turned Bridgend into Luxe tickets a month ago were £8 now Avatar 2 is £20.50.
In the US NATO hasn’t calculated the average ticket price since 2019 ($9.18m) but the Entelligence average for Avatar is $16.58 with many US cinemas charging $20+ as the UK charging £20+.In 2009 UK average was £5.44 (BFI IMAX for Avatar £12) now £7.52 up 40% (BFI IMAX £24) up 100%.
BFI IMAX was the highest-selling cinema in the UK last week for Avatar 2, but how did Avatar 2 do at BFI IMAX compared to Avatar selling 47,000 seats ahead of its opening in December 2009 (35,000 in the first 24 hours) taking £607k (average £12.90) and over 160,000 tickets (£2.1m+) over its run. 13 years later the average was £24 for Avatar 2, but BFI IMAX had more competition from many more IMAX cinemas that had opened since. In 2009 Avatar opened in 9 IMAX cinemas in the UK while Avatar 2 opened in 52, but only a handful was like BFI IMAX gave the full IMAX experience, despite having similar prices, since BFI took back ownership of IMAX dropped prices slightly from £30 for Top Gun Maverick to £24 for Avatar 2.
I look back on how Leicester Square cinemas regularly broke house records in the 80s and 90s selling out most weekend shows with films like Who Framed Roger Rabbit £150k OLSq in December 1988, Indiana Jones 3 £177k at the Empire in 1989, Batman £151k Warner (2 screens) and The Silence of the Lambs in May 1991 £158k when prices were less than a quarter they are now and wonder how these same cinemas are performing now.
Avatar 2 at BFI IMAX Batman at Warner in 1989 had 24-hour shows and ticket touts outside the cinema selling tickets for more than three times face value (£4)
The big question is whether it will top Avatar BO and whether will it have similar legs, as the sequel will open about twice as much as the original it’s unlikely to play as long as the first film. That said with a lack of major releases in January if it doesn’t come closer to the first film January is going to be a soft start of the year. As I’ve said many times the fact that the sequel opens 13 years later with 50%+ ticket inflation and many exhibitors have increased prices for the film. It should take more than Avatar.
The plot of Avatar 2 made me think of Star Wars The Phantom Menace with Naboo having to befriend the Gungans whom they hated to help defeat the sky people… but as with Batman Vs Superman and Captain America Civil War, there’s a long middle section of the film that sees the two fight each other before they go and fight their real enemy.
Avatar opened in 9 IMAX cinemas in 2009 (Birmingham IMAX Millennium Point, National Media Museum IMAX Bradford, Cardiff, Gateshead Metrocentre, Glasgow Science Centre, ODEON Greenwich, BFI London IMAX, Manchester The Printworks and ODEON Wimbledon). IMAX took 7% of the UK BO of Avatar (more than it took from 2D 300 screens) Avatar broke advance booking records at the BFI IMAX taking £607,000 selling 47,487 tickets with an average ticket price of £12.90 selling 99% capacity;(average price for Avatar 2 is £24). Avatar The Way of Water opened in 54.
In 2009 Avatar had much more competition as few expected Avatar to be a massive success it was so Alvin and the Chipmunks 2 and Sherlock Holmes opened the week after, both opening strongly with £5.34m and £3.1m. In its third weekend increased by 55% taking £5,940,479 but other holdovers Sherlock Holmes (£3,439,616 up 12%; Alvin And The Chipmunks II £2,457,029 up 83% (not including previews); Nine (£780,255), St. Trinian’s 2 £671,480 up 54% with new release Did You Hear About The Morgan’s opening with £1,155,060.
Few would have imagined that Avatar would take £4m+ for the next 8 weeks returning to #1 for 8 of the next 9 weeks and go on to take £93,442,625 (£140m inflated).
The original was #1 for 7 weeks in a row taking £4m+ for all those weeks after opening with £8.5m, the question is how many weeks Avatar will: The Way of Water stay at #1 as Empire of Light (January 9th 7-day opening) is the only film that could open #1 before Puss In Boots: The Last Wish (February 3rd).
Comparison titles to Avatar 2 apart from the first film are going by its opening Rogue One and Lord of the Rings trilogy and The Hobbit trilogy also opened the same weekend in December with similar BO, but of course, its 21 years ago since the first Lord of the Rings film and they weren’t released originally in 3D or IMAX.
At the London premiere, James Cameron said “Theatres are full again and moviegoers of the world have declared resoundingly that we need this. We need this ability to gather together to sit in these great dark spaces and to dream together with our eyes wide open in a cinema. To me tonight is not about the new Avatar film. It’s about cinema, and here you are in your black-tie finery. It’s a celebration of this art form that we love so much. It’s back it’s alive and it’s as great as it’s ever been.”
James Cameron is passionate about cinema, but part of this passion is similar to Quentin Tarantino who takes elements from other films. While Avatar shared a similar plot to Dances with Wolves and Ferngully critics have said he took many elements from the original film. All the reviews for Avatar 2 have highlighted the technical aspects of the film the plot and dialogue and the rave premiere reactions became a three-star review. The problem when you have visionary technology lead directors like Cameron, Lucas, Jackson, Nolan is they struggle with expanding their plot ideas into a three-hour film that often has poorly written scripts.
In an interview, James Cameron described making Avatar sequels as “the worst business case in movie history.” As the industry gets caught up in the hype when seeing films like Black Panther Wakanda Forever opening with $181m in the US and taking $287m after 10 days in the US and $550m worldwide. As these films have massive budgets attached to Wakanda Forever is $250m+ and then the same again on marketing it will need to take over $1bn globally.
James Cameron admitted Avatar: The Way of Water will need to be the 4th/5th film worldwide to break even (currently Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens $2.07bn and Avengers: Infinity War $2.05bn).
Of course, it’s a different story for cinemas as exhibitors will be desperate for Avatar: The Way of Water to match the BO of the original, but 12 years on with 50%+ ticket inflation and the huge increase in IMAX screens globally, the massive hype and little competition it should do?
The 7 James Cameron-directed films have taken £300m at the UK BO (don’t have data for Terminator) but the age of many of them sees the inflation inflated total of £500m+. The only film that failed to find an audience In the UK was 1989’s The Abyss opening for £204,075 (after an exclusive platform at Odeon Leicester Square taking £1,348,000 (£5,065,972 inflated) as all of his films it was visually stunning and looked stunning in 70mm at the Odeon Marble Arch.
- 2. Roald Dahl’s Matilda The Musical – £1,128,063 – £16,166,581
Dropped 14.4 % in its fifth weekend
15th biggest 2022 film between Black Adam and DC Super Pets
96th biggest fifth weekend between Seven and WOG The Curse of the Were-Rabbit (close to Mrs Doubtfire, The Bodyguard, The Lion King (1994) and Uncharted).
Matilda was mostly limited to weekend BO for its first 4 weeks but with school holidays last week and this week’s ad being the only family film on release it should take about £20m by the weekend. 2014’s Paddington opened the same weekend and took the same BO (£15.2m) in its first 17 days as it took during the Christmas holidays; Sony will release the sing-along version in cinemas on January 1st.
The stage musical had been hugely popular selling over 11m seats and British cinemagoers love their cinematic musicals Matilda the Musical is the perfect antidote for the cold wet weather and children who have been lacking good family entertainment in cinemas this year. While it’s the only major family film to open until Puss In Boots: The Last Wish (February 3rd).
Fifth weekends
1996’s Matilda dropped 11% £605,030 (£1,314,190 inflated) and £6,017,309 (£13,140,502) 58.8% of £10,227,163 (£22,333,913 inflated)
2005’s Charlie and the Chocolate Factory dropped 34% £1,116,172 #2 and £33,251,095 89.1% of £37,354,584 (£64,081,749 inflated)
2009’s Fantastic Mr Fox dropped 33% £454,088 #6 and £8,289,695 89.5% of £9,260,892 (£13,755,148)
2016’s The BFG up 10% £1,236,002 #5 and £25,767,760 84% of £30,694,086
383rd biggest film between X-Men Origins: Wolverine and The Muppets (close to Nanny McPhee & the Big Bang, Scooby-Doo Too, Dolittle and Tintin: Secret of the Unicorn) and 697th biggest inflated between Dr Dolittle 2 and Beethoven (close to The Spiderwick Chronicles, The Lion King 3D, Adams Family Values and Rugrats in Paris: The Movie).
25th biggest family/musical film between Elf and The Muppets (close to Stuart Little, Enchanted, Casper and Who Framed Roger Rabbit) and 55th biggest inflated between Dr Dolittle 2 and Beethoven (close to Alvin and the Chipmunks, Santa Claus The Movie, Miracle on 34th Street and The Santa Clause 2).
- 3. Love Actually – £408,178 – £651,745
Up 2,084.3% from last weekend
With a lack of new releases over the last few weeks classic Christmas films have helped fill the gap with Love Actually, Elf, Home Alone, It’s A Wonderful Life, The Muppet Christmas Carol, The Polar Express, Die Hard, Home Alone 2: Lost In New York have been attracting audiences in cinemas despite being shown on TV over the last few weeks.
Showing again if it’s a film people want to see in the cinema they will see it in the cinema, but if exhibitors have no issues booking films that are also been shown on TV at the same time, they have no excuse for not screening films from streaming platforms.
Love Actually has become a Christmas favorite ever since it opened in November 2003 with £6,657,479 taking £36,447,227 (£74,536,221 inflated) and was #1 for four weeks
Up 106.4% from last weekend
Elf opened the week after Love Actually in 2003 (£4,538,440 taking £16,344,883 and £29,744,742 inflated) so never was #1 on its initial release, but it was #1 for two weeks when it was re-released in 2020 taking £98,157 and £48,244 a few weeks before cinemas closed for a second time due to COVID.
Elf was previously re-released in December 2019 taking £148,489 #9 from 274 screens
Elf the Musical is currently playing at the Dominion and featured in this year’s Asda Christmas advert.
Down 30.1% in the fourth weekend
41st biggest 2022 film between Mrs Harris Goes To Paris and The Menu
Fourth weekends
2004’s Bad Santa dropped 50% £124,910 #13 and £2,112,645 of £2,407,426
2016’s Bad Santa 2 dropped 54% £71,664 #11 and £1,882,879 of £1,961,362
Other Christmas action films include Die Hard (took £3,116,630); Lethal Weapon (£2,394,952); Ronin (£2,658,365) The Long Kiss Goodnight (£4,484,333); The Last Boy Scout (£1,678,135); Kiss Kiss Bang Bang (£1,443,650)
1,709th biggest film between Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit and Astro Boy (close to Days Of Thunder, Moonwalker, A Life Less Ordinary and Zombieland) and 2,106th biggest inflated between The X-Files: I Want to Believe and E.T. (20th Anniversary) (close to Jacob’s Ladder, Red 2, Atomic Blonde and Fargo).
Film News
Comscore reported on September 22nd was expecting UK BO to top £1bn but as admissions hadn’t topped 100m by the end of November (99,825,130) Jan-Nov this would be £751m if average ticket price was still at 2021 levels.
Top 20 December 19th had taken £550m 75% of 2022 BO.
December 2021 admissions were 13.54m with Spider-Man NWH taking £69m (Avatar 2 will likely take a third less) at an average price of £7.52 which would add £101m to BO but to reach £1bn December BO needs to be double this amount. Admissions will need to be the highest in December for over 5 years to get close (December 2019 was 18.5m; 2018, 15.7m; 2017 17.2m; admissions in December 2009 were 16.3m.
December 2022 admissions will likely be about 9m 110m total, so the average ticket price would need to be £9.15 for BO to top £1bn in 2022, up 21.7% twice the inflation rate. £9.15 is probably closer to the real average ticket price.
Surely, this will show that 2022 has been probably the most disappointing year at the UK BO since 2019 after so much success starting the year with Spider-Man NWH and then with Top Gun Maverick. But having NWH 2022 as one of the biggest films of the year surely highlights the failure of this year’s BO as BO has been shared across a few films. The top 10 will have taken £400m+ about 50% of 2022 BO.
Surely, this shows that it can’t continue like this industry needs to change to find ways to get audiences to see a wider range of films. Rather than seeing films like Top Gun Maverick a dozen times via Cineworld Unlimited and Odeon Limitless. But as nothing has improved for the better since 2003, it’s unlikely anything will do, especially with the slate of films set for release in 2023. The majority will be all hype, no sustenance as big industry heralds their large openings, but then audiences quickly move on to the next shiny new thing opening the next weekend. I’ve said similar things for many many years.
The problem is industry always believes its hype and thinks Black Panther 2 and Avatar 2 would be their saviour as No Time to Die and Spider-Man NWH were last year. But in 2018 Black Panther opened at a very different time as it was seen as the first Black superhero film while Avatar was a complete surprise to audiences in 2009 giving them a new cinema experience, but the sequel had a feeling of Déjà vu.
FDA website has a UK average of 2021 £7.47 while UKCA is £7.52 it will be interesting to see what the average price is for 2022 as the average increased by the second highest percentage for 21 years in 2010 after Avatar opened due to 3D surcharges. NATO has yet to publish a new average ticket price for the US since 2019 when it was $9.18.
At the start of the year with the strongest film slate of all the major studios (Black Panther 2, Doctor Strange 2, Thor: Love and Thunder, Strange World and Avatar: The Way of Water Disney was expected to be the #1 UK studio in 2022. But as many of those films haven’t reached the high levels they were expected to, BO Universal Pictures is likely to retain the #1 studio for a second year. Disney released 16 films in 2022, three quarters of them from 20th Century Studios and Searchlight Pictures, they have currently taken £170m.
Universal Pictures released 26 films from Universal, Focus Features and MGM and they have made £210m. Avatar 2 is likely to take at the most £30m more this year, while Black Panther 2 and Strange World won’t likely take much more. Universal Pictures’ big three were Jurassic World Dominion, Minions: The Rise of Gru and Sing 2 but they also had strong performances from a wide mix of films Nope, Downtown Abbey 2, The Bad Guys, The Black Phone, Ticket To Paradise and Belfast.
Warner Bros and Paramount Pictures come third and fourth with Sony Pictures fifth with Spider-Man No Way Home 2022 B taking about a third of their 2022 BO. All 5 studios will have taken £100m+ which is a positive for cinema as over the last decade Disney has had a stranglehold on UK BO in 2019 took almost 45% of the BO (including Fox titles). Next Disney has their strongest slate since 2019, but the three MCU films aren’t home bankers.
UK box office in detail
This weekend’s top 10 box office took £7,861,021 down 43.6% from last weekend’s £13,929,358: 972,899 admissions down 43.6% from 1,723,930
796th biggest top 10 of the last 21 years (out of 1,081) between 31 August 2018 #1 £1,173,235 (14.9% of top 10) and 30 July 2004 #1 King Arthur £1,908,084 (24.3% of top 10) and 994th biggest inflation inflated between 27 September 2013 #1 Prisoners £1,365,527 )21.24% of top 10) and 07 September 2012 #1 Dredd £1,049,345 (16.7% of top 10).
Top 3 took £6,510,245 82.8% of the top 10; Avatar: The Way of Water 63.3% (£4,974,004); Roald Dahl’s Matilda The Musical 16.2% (£1,128,063); Love Actually 4.3% (£408,178);
Taking 63.3% of the top 10 it’s the 107th highest percentage #1 between 26 November 2004 The Incredibles £9,753,035 (63.3%) and 11 March 2022 The Batman £7,406,390 (63.2%)
506th biggest admissions #1 (615,595) between 15 October 2010 Despicable Me £3,664,376 (615,862) and 25 January 2013 Les Miserables £4,016,611 (615,101).
Down 7.3% from 2021; (£8,478,878); The Matrix: Resurrections (£2,686,785); #1 Spider-Man No Way Home £4,619,518 2nd week 84% (76% not previews) drop 656 screens (54.5% of top 10)
Up 8,533% from 2020 (£91,059); #1 Wonder Woman 1984 £72,674; #2 Home Alone £3,840; #3 Come Away £3,245; #1 Wonder Woman 1984 £72,674 214 screens 2nd weekend (79.8% of top 10)
Down 67% from 2019 (£23,799,781); Little Women (£3,578,877); Spies In Disguise (£1,487,638); Playing With Fire (£762,850); #1 Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker £9,311,240 2nd week 741 screens 55% drop (39.1% of top 10)
Down 52.5% from 2018: (£16,539,374); Mary Poppins Returns (£8,181,541); The Nutcracker – Bolshoi Ballet 2018 (£258,038); #1 Mary Poppins Returns £8,181,541 1st week 735 screens (39.4% of the top 10)
Down 73.5% from 2017: (£29,632,571); Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (£8,154,548); Pitch Perfect 3 (£4,334,525); Ferdinand (£3,644,748); #1 Star Wars: The Last Jedi £10,158,640 2nd week 706 screens 64% drop (35.3% of top 10)
Down 37% from 2016: (£12,473,395); Passengers (£2,418,976); Ballerina (£1,094,317); It’s a Wonderful Life (Re-release) (£130,016); #1 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story £5,652,730 2nd week 680 screens 67% drop (45.3% of the top 10)
Down 55.2% from 2015; (£17,525,083); Snoopy and Charlie Brown: A Peanuts Movie (£3,639,383); Daddy’s Home (£1,628,219); In the Heart of the Sea (£570,543); #1 Star Wars: The Force Awakens £10,164,805 2nd week 665 screens (58% of top 10)
Down 52% from 2014: (£16,382,437); Exodus: Gods and Kings (£2,607,453); Annie (£2,310,453); Unbroken (£656,991); Big Eyes (£135,582); #1 The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies £4,249,226 3rd week 601 screens 21% drop (25.9% of top 10)
Down 56.1% from 2013: (£17,885,304); Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues (£4,545,934); Walking with Dinosaurs (£982,023); The Harry Hill Movie (£549,736); Moshi Monsters: The Movie (£334,748); Sleeping Beauty – Bolshoi 2011 (£86,942); American Hustle platform (£39,595); #1 The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug £5,358,380 2nd week 594 screens 43% drop (30% of top 10)
Down 46.6% from 2012 (£14,717,807); Life of Pi (£3,610,604); Pitch Perfect (£952,107); Home Alone (Re: 2012) (£43,544); West of Memphis (£1,103); #1 The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey £5,979,241 2nd week 601 screens 48% drop (40.6% of top 10)
Up 9.1% from 2011 (£7,210,571); no new releases; #1 Arthur Christmas £2,047,463 7th weekend up 52% 549 screens (28.4% of top 10)
Up 31.4% from 2010: (£5,980,170); Little Fockers (£3,035,717); Arthur and the Great Adventure (£83,875); #1 Little Fockers £3,035,717 1st week 488 screens (50.7% of top 10)
Down 43.5% from 2009; (£13,907,548); Alvin And The Chipmunks II (£5,347,191); Sherlock Holmes (£3,439,616); 3 Idiots (£437,554); Nowhere Boy (£148,157); #1 Alvin And The Chipmunks II£5,347,191 1st week (38.4% of top 10)
Down 14.4% from 2008; (£9,184,877); Yes Man (£2,331,490); Bedtime Stories (£1,551,605); Australia (£1,294,414); #1 Yes Man £2,331,490 1st week (25.4% of top 10)
Down 26.1% from 2007: (£10,638,757); St. Trinian’s (£1,832,594); Alvin and the Chipmunks (£1,433,937); P. S. I Love You (£224,096); I’m Not There (£58,491); #1 Enchanted £2,547,975 2nd week 1st week #1 24% of top 10)
Down 2% from 2006; (£8,021,487); Flags of Our Fathers (£97,765); #1 Happy Feet £2,048,266 3rd week 475 screens 1% up (25.5% of top 10)
Up 31.9% from 2005 (£5,961,400); No new releases; #1 The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe £2,843,353 3rd week 2nd 1 over 3 weeks 525 screens 41% drop (47.7% of top 10)
Up 147.1% from 2004 (£3,180,924); National Treasure (£312,784); House of Flying Daggers (£251,498); The Aviator (platform) (£23,835); #1 The Polar Express 4th week 1st #1 41% drop 452 screens (21.6% of top 10)
Down 35% from 2003 (£12,084,935); Peter Pan (£1,359,372); Cold Mountain (£380,994); Out of Time (£311,508); #1 Lord of the Rings: Return of the King £7,149,427 2nd week 59.2% of top 10)
Down 40.7% from 2002 (£13,253,300); Chicago (platform) (£113,386); Blood Work (£61,053); #1 Lord of the Rings: Two Towers £8,177,801 2nd week 499 screens 37% (61.7% of top 10)
Down 45% from 2001 (£14,285,925); The Mean Machine (£1,573,594); Serendipity (£635,042); #1 The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Rings £7,825,995 2nd week 470 screens 29% drop (54.8% of top 10);
Next weekend 2021 (£12,206,285); The King’s Man (£3,496,627); Titane (£121,920); The Electrical Life Of Louis Wain (£85,763); Cinderella – Met Opera 2022 (£23,039); #1 Spider-Man No Way Home £6,055,345 3rd week (49.6% of top 10);
US Box Office
- Avatar: The Way of Water – Disney
Dropped 53% in the second weekend taking $63.33m and $261.01m
Took $38M (14%) from 400 IMAX screens in the US
30th biggest second weekend between Rogue One: A Star Wars Story #29 ($64.03m) and Alice in Wonderland ($62.71m); Avatar #14 ($75.61m).
Sunday estimates were $56m 3 days and $82m 4 days but Disney has a habit of underestimating weekend box office with final figures up on Monday ($64m 3 days and $95.5m 4-day slightly less than Rogue One’s $96.1m 4 day.
101st biggest film between The Sixth Sense and Up; 239th biggest inflation inflated between The Flintstones and Despicable Me; 8th biggest 2022 between Thor: Love and Thunder and Sonic the Hedgehog 2; 25th biggest sci-fi between Independence Day and Inception.
Audiences preferred to see the film in premium formats IMAX, Dolby and PLF with screenings across the weekend selling out, but then regular 2D and 3D were soft. Analysts believe this will mean it will have long legs as audiences are waiting to see it in those formats, but we won’t know until we see the holds over the next three weeks.
The sequel held similarly over its opening weekdays to Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, but it’s a very different film targetting a much wider demographic, while taking far more from 3D and IMAX.
The average ticket price for a 3D PLF is $18.28 compared to $12.53 2D while last week’s average was $12.04 according to EntTelligence research (NATO has other ideas of the average being $9.18).
James Cameron said “The real success of the Disney-produced film won’t reveal itself on the first weekend… Titanic didn’t work that way. Avatar didn’t work that way”—but closer to the third weekend. Coupling the holiday season with rave reviews on social media eclipsing critics’ more lukewarm takes, the future looks promising for the film.” But the marketplace is very different 13 years later films are much more front-loaded as they open far bigger and don’t have the legs as younger audiences are very quick to move on to the next big thing.
If Avatar 2 needs to take $2bn+ to break even, then Fast X with a budget of a third more will need to take even more. Early tracking for Avatar 2 was between $150m-$175m more than twice as much as Avatar ($77m) but the question for the sequel (as with all sequels) is not how big it opens but how big it drops the second weekend as Avatar only dropped 1.8% Christmas weekend while The Force Awakens dropped 40%; Rogue One 59%: Aquaman 23%; Rise of Skywalker 59%; No Way Home 57%.
The difference between this year and 2009 was Avatar held very strongly on its second weekend down only 1.8% taking $75.61m (and $212.71m) but other films also performed strongly the three strong openers Sherlock Holmes #2 $62.3m; Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel $48.87m #3; It’s Complicated $22.1m #4 and The Blind Side #5 holding well $11.51m and Up in the Air $11.27m #6 and The Princess and the Frog $9m #7.
It took 45 days for Avatar to overtake Titanic to become the biggest film globally $2.039bn and went on to take $749.76m in the US (held #1 for 7 weeks; Titanic was #1 for 15 weeks), $1.99bn internationally and $2.743bn worldwide. It remained the biggest film globally until Avengers Endgame overtook it after 91 days of release, but after Avengers Endgame opened globally with $1.2bn over its opening weekend many expected it to overtake Avatar many weeks earlier and take over $3bn. Avatar retained its #1 global status after it was re-released in China in March 2021. (Avatar took $262m in China).
Took $168.6m (down 45.2%) from 52 territories $601.7m total and $855.4m worldwide; China $100.5m ($25.8m 26.2% from IMAX); Korea $53m; France $52.3m; India $37m; Germany $35.7m; UK $30.3m. Ahead of opening it was expected to take upwards of $500m in China but the latest estimate is $170m; IMAX took $27.6m worldwide; an international total of $62.8m and $97m worldwide.
On Monday Avatar 2 became the 9th film to take $100m+ worldwide from IMAX. Avatar was the first film to take $100m+ from IMAX worldwide from 261 screens, The Dark Knight was the second from 109 screens and then Gravity was the third film to do so from 330 screens. Avatar 2 opened on 1,543 IMAX screens worldwide with an average price of $20.
If Avatar 2 continues to hold similar to Rogue One it will take $49.6m in the third weekend down 22.5% and $424.98m and will drop 55.5% in the fourth weekend with $22.06m and $477.36m which will surely see M3gan replace it as #1.
Avatar 2 is performing similarly to Avatar in most territories apart from China and Japan while not being legally released in Russia (the first film in Russia was the 6th biggest international territory $116m)
Avatar took $145m in its second weekend internationally from 14,844 screens in 108 countries (including $12.1m from IMAX) in 2009 $405m total and $617m worldwide. While Spider-Man No Way Home took $121.4m internationally from 61 territories in its second weekend $587.1m total and $1.05bn worldwide 55% of $1.91bn total. If Avatar 2 was to hold similarly it will take $1.8bn worldwide but with China, BO should push global BO to $2bn.
On Tuesday the film had taken $1bn worldwide after 11 days, but as with Avengers Endgame taking $1.2bn in 5 days it was always expected Avatar 2 would speedily take $1bn, the question was how long it would take $2bn. As when Avengers Endgame took $1.2bn in 5 days everyone immediately believed take $3bn+.
56th biggest worldwide between The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug and The Jungle Book; 3rd biggest 2022 film between Jurassic World: Dominion and Doctor Strange 2; 14th biggest sci-fi worldwide between Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire.
- Puss in Boots: The Last Wish – Universal Pictures
Opened $12.42m; received positive reviews; (96% Rotten Tomatoes) and A CinemaScore
It was expected the new releases would open far stronger, as the films opening the week after Avatar did in 2009.
Took $3.2m from Wednesday’s previews
The sequel to 2011’s Puss In Boots opened $34.07m taking $149.26m and $554.98m worldwide which was a spin-off to Shrek. The five Shrek extended universe films took $1.41bn in the US and $3.56bn worldwide and the 41 Dreamworks Animation films have taken $5.9bn in the US and $15.92m worldwide since 1998’s Antz.
2001’s Shrek opened $42.34m taking $268.16m and $488.35m WW
2004’s Shrek 2 opened $108.03m taking $441.22m and $928.76m WW
2007’s Shrek the Third opened $121.62m taking $322.71m and $813.36m WW
2010’s Shrek Forever After opened $70.83m taking $238.73m and $752.6m WW
Took $16.5m from 53 territories and $32.5m total and $50.8M worldwide
- Babylon – Paramount Pictures
Opened $3.6m; received mixed reviews (55% Rotten Tomatoes) and C+ CinemaScore
Babylon opened with almost half of 2019’s Cats ($6.16m taking $27.16m) and with similar poor reviews and word of mouth Babylon will drop much heavier in its second weekend and unlikely take more than $20m. Cats were held better dropping 27.2% and 45.5% in the second and third weekends before dropping 78.7% in the fourth weekend.
Babylon is Damien Chazelle’s fourth film since 2014’s Whiplash taking $13.09m and $39.12m WW;
2016’s La La Land opened $881,104 on a platform from 5 screens expanding in its fifth weekend taking $10.13m taking $151.1m and $447.4m WW
2018’s First Man opened $16m taking $44.93m and $105.71m WW
Babylon is the latest adult-targeted drama film that has struggled to find an audience in cinemas over recent months, but unlike Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans, it was more expected for Babylon after Paramount announced in October the film would open wide on December 23rd.
Originally the film was due to be on a platform on Christmas Day and then open wide on January 6th, but probably after the studio started screening the film, they knew that they needed to open wide with the film. The $80m budget firm needs to take $250m to turn a profit. It was hoped Babylon would perform similarly to American Hustle and Wolf of Wall Street instead it will be similar to Amsterdam.
Babylon had the lowest wide opening for Margot Robbie, lower than Amsterdam ‘s $6.4m and Brad Pitt’s ($4m 1993’s True Romance).
Why do studios make so many poor dating decisions, especially now they have so much data and research is as it’s from the likes of Movio it’s the same data all studios have so they are making the same decisions. It always amazed me when I was in the projection box at Fox and international teams were discussing dating for upcoming slates and amazed when they announced that x would open on y not seeing that rival films a and b were opening before and after.
There have been so many strange dating decisions and poor expansion strategies like The Fabelmans and Empire of Light. Both films will open immediately wide in the UK, with Disney taking the strange decision to open Empire of Light on a Monday. Normally award contenders would have a platform opening and then slowly expand but recently they expand after only a week of failing to build on the momentum gained from the platform. Films used to regularly have platform releases in the UK with films including Evita, The Artist and Chicago opening exclusively in one Leicester Square cinema before expanding, but this rarely happens now.
Opens internationally in January
- Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody – Sony Pictures
Opened $4.76m; received mixed reviews (47% Rotten Tomatoes) and A CinemaScore
Opened with about half what it was expected to open with, but the problem with the film was while Sony screened the film early the marketing was soft, but that’s always the problem when opening a film immediately after a megamovie.
Received mixed reviews but critics are snobbish to these kinds of films that audience will enjoy targetting 35+ females who aren’t interested in going back to Pandora and remember seeing Whitney Huston’s Superbowl performance which is as iconic as Freddy Mercury’s Live Aid set in Bohemian Rhapsody.
Other musician dramas include
2019’s Rocketman opened $25.72m taking $96.36m and $195.32m WW
2018’s Bohemian Rhapsody opened $51.06m taking $216.66m and $910.8m WW
2018’s A Star Is Born opened $42.9m taking $215.33m and $436.23m WW
While other comparisons are 2021’s House of Gucci opened $14.42m taking $53.8m and $153.26m WW
The film opens 30 years after Whitney Huston starred in The Bodyguard and opened $16.61m taking $122.04m and $411.04m WW
Opened with $ $2.6m from 31 territories and $7.9m worldwide
- Violent Night – Universal Pictures
Dropped 30% in the fourth weekend taking $3.51m and $41.98m
2,081st biggest film between Biloxi Blues and No Reservations; 3,084th biggest inflated between Léon and House Party 3; 35th biggest 2022 film between Downton Abbey: A New Era and Barbarian; 276th biggest Universal Pictures film between Biloxi Blues and Krampus.
Other Christmas action films include Die Hard (took $83m); Lethal Weapon ($65.2m); Ronin ($41.6m); RED ($90.3m); The Long Kiss Goodnight ($33.4m); 1989’s We’re No Angels ($10.5m); 1994’s Trapped in Paradise ($6.02m); 2005’s Kiss Kiss Bang Bang ($4.24m)
2003’s Bad Santa dropped 30.6% by $4.3m and $42.1m of $60.06m and $76.49m worldwide
2016’s Bad Santa 2 dropped 80.8% by $236,765 and $17.54m of $17.78m and $25.08m worldwide
2015’s Krampus dropped 46.8% by 2.18m and $40.43m of $42.72m and $61.34m worldwide
1991’s The Last Boy Scout dropped 15.2% by $7.08m and $43.81m of $59.5m
Took $2.3m from 75 territories $20.1m total and $55.1m worldwide
UK Box Office Top 10
UK Box Office Preview
After dropping 55.5% in its second weekend, Avatar The Way of Water should increase BO 50%+ in its third weekend, taking £6.5m-£8.5m (due to the second weekend being a two-day weekend). That said Saturday BO will be lower due to being New Year’s Eve.
Avatar 2 should take between £40m-£45m by Sunday and then will take another £2.5m+ on Bank Holiday Monday. After taking £2m+ for 17 of its 18 days on release, daily BO will drop from 3rd Jan, by which time should have taken £50m+. Avatar 2 took £3.4m on Tues/Weds
Whitney Huston’s biopic I Wanna Dance With Somebody opened on Monday (Boxing Day) having a 7-day opening, started softly taking £340k Mon, £525k Tues, £540k Weds) could open with £3m_.
Matilda could also see an increase in BO in its 6th weekend with a sing-along version released on Sunday, by which time it should have taken over £20m.
Philharmoniker Live: New Year’s Eve Concert 2022 is showing in cinemas on December 31st with the normal Event Cinema surcharges.
January normally starts with some of the biggest award contenders opening but this year’s films Empire of Light (9th Jan), Tar (13th Jan), Babylon (20th Jan) and The Fabelmans (27th Jan) are unlikely to attract wide audiences.
Opening in two weeks
- M3gan – Universal Pictures
Sci-fi horror from Blumhouse Productions starring Allison Williams, Violet McGraw, Ronny Chieng and Brian Jordan Alvarez and directed by Gerard Johnstone.
Had its world premiere in the US a month before its US release on January 6th showing Universal Pictures had high hopes for the film (already have plans for a sequel) even though it opens only four weeks after Avatar: The Way of Water could open #1
Halloween Ends in October was like many other Blumhouse Productions horrors including Split, Get Out, Nope and The Black Phone, Mama) opened with less than the US, 5.1% about half of UK industry uses 10% as an estimate of US opening)
Blumhouse horrors have taken about £150m over the last 10 years the biggest openers
2019’s Glass £3,423,380; 2013’s Insidious 2 £2,877,742; 2019’s Us £2,766,839
2018’s Halloween £2,656,097; 2017’s Split £2,548,516 and 2020’s The Invisible Man £2,163,797
Would expect M3gan to open similar to Split and The Invisible Man being 15 rated horror with trailer playing with Avatar. M3gan is like a modern-day Chucky film;
1989’s Child’s Play opened £165,971 #3 from 160 screens (taking £100,954 and £372,968 in second weekend) taking £493,521
1991’s Child’s Play 2 opened £212,383 #5 from 141 screens taking £391,549
- Tar – Universal Pictures
Psychological drama starring Cate Blanchett, Noémie Merlant, Nina Hoss, Sophie Kauer, Julian Glover, Allan Corduner, and Mark Strong and written and directed by Todd Field.
Had a world premiere at Venice Film Festival receiving critical acclaim (90% Rotten Tomatoes) and the New York Film Critics Circle and Los Angeles Film Critics Association called it their best film of 2022 and received three Golden Globe nominations (Best Film Drama, Screenplay and Actress.
The film opened on platform release in October taking $158,620 from 4 screens, after performing steadily on platform release it was one of many dramas that struggled to find an audience after going wide after expanding far too quickly into 1,087 screens taking $5.5m to date.
Todd Field previously directed 2002’s In the Bedroom (opened £87,294 #15 from 16 screens taking £662,818 after 8 weeks) and 2006’s Little Children (opened £158,012 #10 from 203 screens).