- Black Panther Wakanda Forever – £6,190,593 – £22,697,991
Dropped 49.9% in its second weekend; £668,637 less than Black Panther)
5th biggest opening week of 2022 (£15.64m) between Thor: Love and Thunder (£16.82m included £3.15m) and Jurassic World 3 (£16.04m); Doctor Strange (£24.69m included £4,84m previews) and The Batman #3 (£19.14m).
Friday £1.51m 24.4% (down 63.3% £4.2m); Saturday £2.85m 46% (down 40% £4.75m); Sunday £1.83m 29.6% (47% drop £3.44m)
Took £1.13m (5%) Monday; £1.08m Tuesday (4.7%); £1.03m Wednesday (4.5%); £0.9m Thursday (4%)
Wakanda BO saw a big drop on Friday but held stronger on Saturday but then dropped off slightly on Sunday likely due to the start of the World Cup with 8m+ watching the first game.
3rd biggest second weekend of 2022 between The Batman (£7.4m) and Jurassic World 3 (£5.71m)
49th biggest second weekend between Minions and 1917 (close to Paddington 2, Toy Story 2, The Lego Movie and Star Wars: Attack of the Clones) and 116th biggest inflation-inflated opening between Deadpool and Star Wars: Rogue One (close to The Lion King (1994), The Sixth Sense, Mrs Doubtfire and Babe).
12th biggest comic-book opening between Iron Man 3 and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (close to The Dark Knight, Captain Marvel, Deadpool and Spider-Man 3) and the 18th biggest inflated between Deadpool and Men In Black 2 (close to The Batman, Men In Black, Batman Forever and Hancock).
8th biggest MCU second weekend between Iron Man 3 (£6,307,191) and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 (£6,097,082) close to Captain Marvel (£6,643,217) and Doctor Strange 2 (£5,690,351)
12th biggest MCU film after 10 days between Captain Marvel (£23,657,527) and Spider-Man: Far From Home (£22,550,859)
21st biggest Disney second weekend between iron Man 3 and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (close to Incredibles 2, Toy Story 2, Finding Nemo and Monsters, Inc.) and 33rd biggest inflation inflated between The Sixth Sense and Star Wars: Rogue One (close to Up, Incredibles, Bruce Almighty and Tarzan).
219th biggest film between The Wolf of Wall Street and X-Men 2 (close to Ghost, Austin Powers in Goldmember, The Lion King (1994) and Toy Story) and 467th biggest inflation inflated between The Devil Wears Prada and Enemy of the State (close to Cliffhanger, Stargate, Matilda, and Beverly Hills Cop II).
Over a third of the survey of over 5,000 Marvel fans on the fan platform Fandom have felt fatigued from the stream of films and TV shows on Disney+. 81% of Marvel fans would watch anything released compared to 67% of DC fans. While 38% of Marvel fans are focused on individual superheroes rather than the MCU compared to 57% of DC fans. This does show that comic-book fans go from one MCU film to the next so they should all perform similarly at the box office as stories follow on to the next film.
The downside of this is that these films are no longer accessible to newbies as they feel they need to see all previous films and TV shows to fully understand the plots. This was similar to Disney’s Star Wars films, The Force Awakens as a remake of A New Hope but The Last Jedi and The Rise of Skywalker needed weren’t as accessible.
20% of DC fans felt fatigued by the number of releases in a year compared to 36% of Marvel fans but Black Adam was the first DC film since The Suicide Squad on August 21st while Wakanda Forever is the seventh MCU film released since July 2021.
If fatigue is setting in now how they will be feeling in a year after three more MCU films (Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 and The Marvels) and four DC films (Shazam! Fury of the Gods, The Flash, Blue Beetle and Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom) are released along with several Sony Marvel films.
The fandom audience breakdown for comic-book films is split 50/50 between fans and others, while the fans will go from one comic book to the next rushing out to see them over the open weekend it’s the other 50% which is key if the film will breakout to non-fan and have long legs as was the case with the first film
While this isn’t expected as non-Avengers films (Spider-Man No Way Home was Avengers 2.1 as Doctor Strange had a leading role) have plateaued since Captain America: Civil War in 2016.
Wakanda Forever opened four years after Black Panther ended Phase 4 of the MCU which has been disappointing, Marvel made Black Panther more than a comic book promoting it as the first leading black comic-book movie (despite that happening 21 years earlier with Spawn and Blade) which saw the film attract many who don’t normally watch comic-book films.
The 30 MCU films have taken £1bn at the UK BO since Iron Man was released in May 2008 (£1.2bn inflated).
Black Panther was #1 for 4 weeks (taking £17.7m; £6.85m; £3.73m and £2.93m) but Black Panther Wakanda Forever will likely be #1 for only two weeks as Matilda will likely open #1 this weekend with Wakanda Forever dropping 50%+ with Friday BO down a lot due to England Vs USA World Cup match at 7 pm with 15m+ watching.
Rival studios kept their distance from Wakanda Forever unlike 2018’s Black Panther dropped 61% in its second weekend £6,859,230 (35% not including previews) but had three wide releases opening (Lady Bird £1,233,508; I, Tonya £1,049,551; Finding Your Feet £923,220) and strong holdovers The Greatest Showman £2,000,922, Fifty Shades Freed £1,190,524, The Shape of Water £900,402 and Coco £759,419.
Spider-Man: No Way Home (2022 BO); Doctor Strange 2; Thor: Love and Thunder and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever have taken about £150m between them in 2022 about 20% of 2022 BO to date. Adding all comic-book films together will take about £250m, about 25% of 2022 BO.
With Wakanda Forever not matching the heights of the first film, is now even more need for Avatar 2 to match the BO of the original film. Released 12 years ago and with massive hype, the growth of IMAX from 9 cinemas in 2009 to 62 along with the growth of PLF and 50%+ ticket inflation and no competition there’s no reason why it shouldn’t. That said 3hr 10 min run time and 12 years is a very long time, (only 2 MCU films had been released) while it didn’t take audiences long to realise Avatar was style over substance, it was Dances with Smurfs. The Saviour of cinema could come from Netflix this week with Matilda as British audiences love Ronald Dahl adaptations, musicals and the stage show has been hugely popular as was the original film in 1996. While likely to be an alternative to the World Cup for the next four weeks.
- 2.The Menu – £932,029 – NE
Took £262k Friday (28.1%) of weekend
1,630th biggest opening between Reign Of Fire and Resident Evil 3 (close to The Good Liar, The Other Boleyn Girl, Side Effects and Fatal Attraction) and 2,042nd biggest inflated opening between Bugsy and Dances with Wolves (close to In Bruges, The Man Without A Face, To Die For and mother!).
It opened on 610 screens never understand why distributors open what is an art-house horror film so wide, maybe it’s due to a concern that these films will have short legs and with four wide releases opening this weekend will likely be limited to late-night shows with Strange World.
The Menu received strong buzz since having its world premiere at Toronto Film Festival in September and was the Surprise Film at the London Film Festival in October, featuring a strong cast including Anya Taylor-Joy who was on the promo tour along with director Mark Mylod (director of many episodes of Succession) he has also directed three films 2005’s The Big White (taking £60,697), 2011’s What’s Your Number? (£838,836) and 2002’s Ali G Indahouse.
In 2019 was due to star Emma Stone and directed by Alexander Payne with the script on the annual blacklist, the year a later Searchlight Pictures acquired the rights and Anya Taylor-Joy and Mark Mylod replaced Emma Stone and Alexander Payne.
The film is a social commentary about the wealthy elite and class warfare. The guests paying $1,250 a head for dinner alongside the minimum wage staff making the food it’s a horror for people who don’t like horrors. This is similar to films like Parasite (opened £1.39m taking £12.03m) and Get Out and TV series including The White Lotus.
Comparisons have been made with 2019’s Ready Or Not opened #4 with £947,958 (including £250,470 previews) and Triangle Of Sadness opened four weeks ago with £308,950 #10 from 125 screens taking £1.16m.
Anya Taylor-Joy recently starred in The Northman (opening £897,529 taking £4.7m) and Last Night in Soho (£731,950 taking £2,255,648) and Amsterdam (£632,722 taking £1,567,841). Next up voices Princess Peach in The Super Mario Bros. Movie and Mad Max spinoff Furiosa in 2024. Is best known for starring in 2020’s Netflix’s The Queen’s Gambit.
The Menu is likely to be front-loaded after receiving mixed reviews as it’s not as clever as it thinks it is and with Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery opening in cinemas for a week on Friday.
- 3.Lyle, Lyle Crocodile – £522,530 – £12,176,900
Down 19.4% in the sixth weekend holding well due to being the only family film on release until Strange World and Matilda open next week.
41st biggest family film between Hook and Home Alone (close to Jumanji (1996), G-Force, Space Jam and Stuart Little 2) and 72nd biggest family film inflated between The Hannah Montana Movie and Instant Family (close to Honey, I Blew Up the Kid, James And The Giant Peach, Freaky Friday and Yogi Bear).
Other live-action animated CGI family sixth weekend include
2004’s Garfield dropped 59% £195,876 #10 and £8,511,349 of £8,762,150 (£15,767,967)
1995’s Casper down 15.5% £739,522 and £13,198,142 82.6% of £15,965,083 (£39,691,653)
1998’s Doctor Dolittle dropped 13% £786,244 #5 and £1,7637,465 88.8% of £19,854,598 (£39,807,730)
2000’s Stuart Little dropped 26% £545,202 #3 and £13,099,352 73.4% of £17,828,403 (£32,739,431)
2002’s Scooby-Doo dropped 53% £426,203 #6 and £19,134,024 89.7% of £21,333,007 (£41,635,434)
2007’s Alvin and the Chipmunks dropped 14% £612,712 #7 and £8,690,573 78.4% of £11,080,538 (£17,728,861)
2007’s Charlotte’s Web down 38% £230,220 #7 and £10,593,589 98.6% of £10,738,495 (£17,181,592)
2014’s Paddington up 11% £2,834,003 #3 and £30,818,050 81.3% of £37,916,343
2018’s Peter Rabbit dropped 76% £487,412 #5 and £38,892,842 94.6% of £41,100,000
2021’s Clifford the Big Red Dog dropped 16% £525,107 #4 and £7,977,918 94 79.3% of £10,052,296
1988’s Who Framed Roger Rabbit down 22.7% £652,710 and £11,419,201 73.1% of £15,612,005 (£54,845,652)
527th biggest between The Nutty Professor and Back to the Future (close to Ghostbusters (1984), Star Wars: Return of the Jedi (1983), Pretty Woman and Jaws) and 944th biggest inflation inflated between Terminator: Genisys and The Delinquents (close to Beetlejuice, Cheaper by the Dozen, Moonwalker and The Karate Kid Part 3).
Sony had success with children’s films in Sept/Oct over recent years including Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs taking £5,881,661; Hotel Transylvania £7,722,310 and Goosebumps £8,575,763.
Lyle, Lyle Crocodile has been the only family film on release over the last 6 weeks until Disney’s Strange World and Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical this week. There has been a lack of family films released this year which has seen those that have been released play much longer than they might have done.
- 4. Black Adam – £496,594 – £19,315,516
Down 36.8% in the fifth weekend
Took £96k Friday 19.3% of weekend
8th biggest DC Extended Universe film between Aquaman and Justice League
46th biggest comic-book film between Thor: The Dark World and Captain America: The Winter Soldier (close to Iron Man 2, Batman Forever, X-Men: Apocalypse and Venom 2) 67th biggest inflation inflated between Dick Tracey and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (1990) (close to Fantastic Four, Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer, Blade 2 and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (2014).
293rd biggest film between Solo: A Star Wars Story and Maleficent (close to Despicable Me, Night at the Museum 2, Captain America: The Winter Soldier and 2012) and 575th biggest inflation inflated between Over the Hedge and A Passage to India (close to Waterworld, Dick Tracey, Die Hard 2 Die Harder and Mad Max: Fury Road).
Recent DC 5th weekends
2017’s Wonder Woman dropped 43% £911,311 #5 (Despicable Me 3 opened £11.15m) and £20,731,916 93.4% of £22,183,744
2017’s Justice League dropped 60% £222,699 #5 and £17,214,315 98.7% of £17,426,939
2019’s Shazam! dropped 64% (Avengers: Endgame 2nd weekend) £143,178 #9 of £13,151,121
2018’s Aquaman dropped 33% £1,236,887 #4 and £20,248,936 94.4% of £21,441,716
2019’s Joker dropped 29% £2,446,200 #1 and £51,563,891 89.2% of £57.8m
2020’s Birds of Prey dropped 62% £136,846 #14 and £8,705,688 (2 weeks before 1st lockdown).
2022’s The Batman dropped 28% £1,200,386 #4 and £37,855,328 92.9% of £40,743,265
Dwyane Johnson and Jaume Collet-Serra recently worked together on 2021’s Jungle Cruise (dropped 39% £402,715 #5 and £10,957,787 87.7% of £12,487,739)
Selected Dwayne Johnson’s fourth weekend (not including Fast & Furious or Jumanji)
2019’s Hobbs & Shaw dropped 56% £634,421 #5 and £19,078,869 93.3% of £20,448,914
Dwayne Johnson Black Adam character is similar to The Scorpion King in 2001’s The Mummy Returns (took £20,390,060 (£39,795,093 inflated) and spinoff The Scorpion King #8 in 2002 (dropped 61% £111,470 #8 of £4,944,146 (£9,649,444 inflated).
- 5. Living – £339,708 – £2,589,675
Down 31.5% in the second weekend holding well due to strong word of mouth and targetting much older audience not interested in comic-book movies.
Took £100k Friday (down 31.5%) 29.4% of weekend
44th biggest 2022 film between Fisherman’s Friends 2 and Licorice Pizza, Notorious and Mrs Brown) and 1,930th biggest film between Executive Decision and The Mission (close to Hannah and Her Sisters, and Circle of Friends).
The Grey Pound films have taken about £100m this year the biggest including Belfast, Downtown Abbey 2, Death on the Nile, The Duke, Operation Mincemeat and Mrs Harris Goes To Paris. While this might just be the BO of a couple of comic-book movies the audience seeing them is going much more often so it is far more lucrative.
A similar third weekend include
2004’s Something’s Gotta Give dropped 30% by £840,744 taking £4,780,701 and £6,887,343
2014’s Last Vegas dropped 36% £830,499 #7 396 screens #7 taking £5,442,891 of £6,664,359
1991’s The Awakenings dropped 28% £198,125 #6 48 screens taking £714,674 taking £3,010,484 (£8,027,957 inflated)
1993’s Scent of a Woman dropped 24% £273,804 #3 166 screens taking £1,518,257 of £3,514,488 (£8,846,437 inflated)
Recent adult dramas include
Operation Mincemeat dropped 29% £537,119 610 screens #7 taking £3,851,826 of £5,191,263
The Duke opened dropped 27% £500,749 644 screens #5 taking £3,866,162 of £5,047,071
Mrs Harris Goes To Paris dropped 25% £386,703 619 screens #7 taking £3,249,061 of £4,284,557
Also opened
Opened £67,043 from 305 screens
Armageddon Time starring Anne Hathaway, Jeremy Strong and Anthony Hopkins has received positive reviews and received a 7-minute standing ovation at the Cannes Film Festival. But these coming-of-age American dream films often struggle to find an audience such as Pleasantville, Little Miss Sunshine, School Ties, A Bronx Tale and Moonrise Kingdom.
James Gray’s debut film 1994’s Little Odessa opened £12,049 taking £73k and most recently directed 2019’s Ad Astra (opened £2.3m taking £6.2m).
Steven Spielberg talked about how streaming services are killing cinema but if audiences aren’t going to see films like Armageddon Time and exhibitors will pull them after only a week then streaming is the only place for these kinds of films now. As audiences won’t rush out to see a film like Armageddon Time over opening weekend and will seek it out after a couple of weeks, by which time it’s no longer playing in any cinemas.
Opened £56,000 from 299 screens
Greg Mottola previously directed 2007’s Superbad (£1.5m taking £6.5m); 2009’s Adventureland (£210,671 taking £653,026); 2011’s Paul (£5.51m taking £13.77m) the first film he has directed since 2016’s Keeping Up With The Joneses (£271,398 taking £692,684). He has also directed several TV shows including Dave and The Newsroom.
Despite receiving positive reviews (85% Rotten Tomatoes) and having a limited cinema release in the US opening in 516 screens and taking $266,744 it was a strange decision to open the film on over 300 screens in the UK as it was never going to find an audience in the UK as the first two Fletch films (starring Chevy Chase) wasn’t as successful in the UK as the US. But probably had more to do with the studio’s Sky TV deal as so often films have been given token theatrical releases for them to qualify for lucrative Pay TV deals.
The third film in the Fletch film series 33 years after the last film Fletch Lives opened #3 with £123,397 from 151 screens taking £567,139. It opened similarly to National Lampoon’s Christmas Vacation which was released in the UK as Winter Holiday opened in April 1990 with £54,657 from 52 screens.
Film News
Advance bookings opened for Avatar: The Way of Water this week and it was interesting to read that James Cameron described it as “the worst business case in movie history.” As the industry gets caught up in the hype when seeing films like Black Panther Wakanda Forever opening with $181m in the US and taking $287m after 10 days in the US and $550m worldwide. As these films have massive budgets attached to Wakanda Forever $250m+ and then the same again on marketing it will need to take over $1bn globally.
James Cameron admitted Avatar: The Way of Water will need to be the 4th/5th film worldwide to break even (currently Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens $2.07bn and Avengers: Infinity War $2.05bn).
He could be saying this for effect as he knows saying something so outrageous (even though it’s true) he will get huge media coverage (which he did) he also previously said that the Avatar film series could end after the third film and not the fifth as originally planned in 2017. As James Cameron in “The Greatest Showman” talks so passionately about the films he makes and audiences, he has only directed 9 films since The Terminator in 1984 (including 2 IMAX films) and they have taken almost $2bn in the US and $6.4bn worldwide (inflation inflated those would be more than double as it’s 25 years ago since Titanic opened taking $2.2bn worldwide which would be about $6bn inflated alone).
James Cameron said in 2006 if Avatar was successful, he wanted to make two sequels (set for 2014 and 2015 releases), but he choose to develop new technologies before making the sequels as he did develop the new technology to make the original film. Filming of Avatar 2 finally started in August 2017 with a budget of $1bn for 4 sequels.
At that time the sequels were vital to the studio, but everything changed a few months later when Disney announced they would acquire the studio (in December 2017). While Avatar might have been the biggest film globally Disney was far more interested in MCU and Star Wars, Avatar was only interested in Disney after Pandora: The World of Avatar opened at Disney World Florida in May 2017.
For Disney films are often just software for the hardware (theme park and merchandise) so as with Star Wars films the addition of more Avatar films would mean that Pandora would continue to attract people to its parks and sell merchandise for decades to come as that’s where the real money is made (Disney’s films took $2.9bn globally in 2021 but in comparison made $56.2bn on sales of licenced merchandise (up from $54bn in 2020) and is the world’s biggest licensor. In comparison Warner Bros are 4th with $15bn, Hasbro 6th $8.4bn (with Peppa Pig) Universal 7th $8.3bn and Paramount 10th $6bn.
This is probably why 20th Century Fox never acquired Lucasfilm, as they must have had the opportunity to do so between making the first Star Wars film in 1977 and before Disney acquired Lucasfilm in 2012 and similar acquired Marvel in 2009 as Disney are the only studio who could fully exploit merchandising with their IPs.
Had 20th Century Fox made released Avatar sequels it would have been vital for them to match the BO of the original film but as Disney are it doesn’t need to take as much, of course there will be lots of analysis comparing the performance of the two films but the sequels will help to generate billions of licenced merchandise over the next decade.
Of course, it’s a different story for cinemas as exhibitors will be desperate for Avatar: The Way of Water to match the BO of the original, but as 12 years on with 50%+ ticket inflation and the huge increase in IMAX screens globally, the massive hype and little competition it should do?
UK BO up till the end of October was £814m 29% down from 2019 Wakanda Forever will likely take £35m+, with Matilda The Musical £20m, so for UK BO to top the £1bn industry must be expecting Avatar: The Way of Water to match the BO of the first film released 12 years ago. With 50% ticket inflation since Avatar opened in 2009 and the growth of IMAX cinemas from 9 to 62 along with other premium formats it needs to attract less than half of the 17.3m who saw Avatar. But there are still big questions over if audiences are ready to return to Pandora.
UK box office in detail
This weekend’s top 10 box office took £9,511,327 down 38.5% from last weekend’s £15,472,862: 1,170,089 admissions down 39% from 1,914,958
625th biggest top 10 of the last 21 years (out of 1,075) between 23 June 2017 #1 £4,635,570 (48.6% of top 10) and 17 April 2009 #1 Monsters vs. Aliens £2,057,367 (21.7% of top 10) and 916th biggest inflation inflated between 25 September 2009 #1 Fame £2,408,242 (34.3% of top 10) and 19 April 2013 #1 Olympus Has Fallen £2,247,900 (29.3% of top 10).
Top 3 took £7,645,152 80.4% of the top 10; Black Panther Wakanda Forever 65.1% (£6,190,593); The Menu Adam 9.8% (£932,029); Lyle, Lyle Crocodile 5.5% (£522,530);
Up 6% from 2021 (£8,973,238); Ghostbusters: Afterlife (£4,314,263); King Richard (£570,316); Petite Maman (£97,321); Rocky IV: Rocky Vs. Drago (Director’s Cut) (£31,779); #1 Ghostbusters: Afterlife £4,314,263 1st week 658 screens (48.1% of top 10)
2020 COVID Second Lockdown
Up 7% 2019 (£8,886,417); Last Christmas (£2,654,354); Le Mans ’66 (£2,000,000); #1 Last Christmas £2,654,354 1st week 512 screens (29.9% of top 10)
Down 58.1% 2018:(£22,674,299); Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (£12,318,966); Burn the Stage: The Movie (£644,308); Suspiria (£166,257); Hell Fest (£78,116); 9 To 5 (Re: 2018) (£7,514); #1 Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald £12,318,966 1st week 674 screens (54.3% of top 10)
Down 49.2% 2017: (£18,740,071); Justice League (£7,264,784); Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (£236,317); The Exterminating Angel – Met Opera 2017 (£98,593); Ingrid Goes West (£65,750); #1 Justice League £7,264,784 1st week 578 screens (38.7% of the top 10)
Down 56.1% 2016: (£21,643,947); Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (£15,333,146); Andre Rieu: Christmas With Andre 2016 (£1,180,208); #1 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them £15,333,146 1st week 666 screens (70.8% of the top 10)
Down 49.5% 2015; (£18,825,730); The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 (£11,255,566); The Dressmaker (£235,968); The Perfect Guy (£102,924); Lulu – Met Opera 2015 (£92,708); True Romance (Re: 2015) (£19,066); #1 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 £11,255,566 1st week 576 screens (59.8% of top 10)
Down 51.6% 2014: (£19,671,148); The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1 (£12,654,109); Il Barbiere di Siviglia – Met Opera 2014 (£211,402); What We Do in the Shadows (£127,765); Get on Up (£110,417); The Homesman (£62,384); No Good Deed (£40,583); #1 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1 £12,654,109 1st week 565 screens (64.3% of top 10)
Down 19.5% 2013: (£11,818,983); The Counsellor (£815,051); The Butler (£794,044); Don Jon (£343,535); Dom Hemingway (£98,232); In Fear (£41,335); Battle of the Year (£34,821); #1 Gravity £4,838,152 2nd week 571 screens 22% drop (40.9% of top 10)
Down 62.2% 2012 (£25,176,278); The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 2 (£15,850,825); Amour (£115,700); Mental (£12,849); #1 The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 2 £15,850,825 1st week 558 screens (63% of top 10)
Down 52.4% 2011 (£19,978,237); The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 1 (£13,910,877); Justice (£276,483); #1 The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 1 £13,910,877 1st week 543 screens (69.6% of top 10)
Down 56.7% 2010: (£21,967,470); Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows 1 (£18,319,721); Peeping Tom: 50th Anniversary (Re) (£4,729); #1 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows 1 £18,319,721 1st week 579 screens (83.4% of top 10)
Down 53.2% 2009; (£20,336,403); The Twilight Saga: New Moon (£11,683,158); A Serious Man (£321,114); The Informant! (£179,612); Glorious 39 (£7,654); #1 The Twilight Saga: New Moon £11,683,158 1st week 497 screens (57.4% of top 10)
Up 28.2% 2008; (£7,416,989); Body of Lies (£991,979); My Best Friend’s Girl (£911,355); Quarantine (£387,994); Waltz with Bashir (£113,087); Choke (£59,330); #1 Quantum of Solace £2,884,789 4th week 527 screens 44% drop (38.9% of top 10)
Up 6.9% 2007: (£8,899,926); American Gangster (£2,564,853); Beowulf (£2,199,848); Brick Lane (£194,745); The Jane Austen Book Club (£50,052); Earth (£24,286); #1 American Gangster £2,564,853 1st week 410 screens (28.8% of top 10)
Down 47.9% 2006; (£18,237,708); Casino Royale (£13,370,969); #1 Casino Royale £13,370,969 1st week 505 screens (73.3% of top 10)
Down 49.4% 2005 (£18,792,982); Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (£14,933,901); The Libertine (£278,482); Separate Lies (£14,568); #1 Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire £14,933,901 1st week 535 screens (79.4% of top 10)
Up 5.5% from 2004 (£9,011,036); After the Sunset (£664,214); The Manchurian Candidate (£624,441); Taxi (£540,581); The Incredibles (limited) (£81,307); #1 Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason £5,047,315 2nd week 506 screens (56.1% of top 10)
Down 5.6% from 2003 (£10,075,451); Love Actually (£6,657,479); Master and Commander (limited) (£61,056); #1 Love Actually £6,657,479 1st week 477 screens (66.1% of top 10)
Down 57.3% 2002 (£22,279,336); Harry Potter Chamber Of Secrets (£18,871,829); Super Troopers (£269,696); Bowling For Columbine (£157,898); #1 Harry Potter Chamber Of Secrets £18,871,829 1st week 524 screens (84.7% of top 10)
Down 51.6% 2001 (£19,644,298); Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone (£16,335,627); Ghost World (£133,188); #1 Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone £16,335,627 1st week 507 screens (83.1% of top 10);
Next weekend 2021 (£8,620,083); House Of Gucci (£2,425,628); Encanto (£1,720,132); Anything Goes – The Musical (£371,880); A Boy Called Christmas (£120,770); #1 House Of Gucci £2,425,628 1st week 683 screens (28.1% of top 10).
US Box Office
- Black Panther Wakanda Forever – Disney
Dropped 63% in the second weekend $66.48m and $287.17m
10th biggest MCU 2nd weekend between Captain Marvel and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 (close to Captain America: Civil War ($72.63m); Doctor Strange 2 ($61.75m) and Thor: Ragnarok ($57.07m)
Took $17.9m on Friday down 78.7% compared to Civil War’s -74% $19.6m; The Batman -67% 18.6M, Doctor Strange 2 -81% $7.1m; Batman Vs Superman -81.6% $15.01m and similar to 79.6% drop for Black Widow ($8.05m).
Had the 28th biggest second weekend between The Batman and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2; Black Panther #4 ($111.65m)
109th biggest film between Monsters, Inc. and Home Alone; 246th biggest inflation inflated between The Lego Movie and Alvin and the Chipmunks; 7th biggest 2022 between Thor: Love and Thunder and Sonic the Hedgehog 2; 32nd biggest comic-book movie between Man of Steel and The Amazing Spider-Man; 40th biggest Disney between Monsters, Inc. and Monsters University.
9th biggest MCU after 10 days between Doctor Strange 2 and Iron Man 3 (close to Captain America: Civil War ($295.96m), Captain Marvel ($264.9m); Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 ($248.42m) and 19th biggest MCU between Thor: Ragnarok and Captain America: The Winter Soldier.
All of these stats show MCU non-Avengers films have plateaued since Civil War in 2016, of course, many deny this (as there also was for Disney’s Star Wars films) but after steady growth for the first 13 films over the first year the films that followed haven’t seen growth as big since.
EntTelligence reports the average ticket price for normal formats is $11.19 while IMAX/PLF is $15.64 but NATO hasn’t updated their average price since 2019 of $9.16.
Took $221.42m in its opening week second biggest after Doctor Strange 2 ($230.9m) 24.2% less than Black Panther ($291.95m).
Some believe the running time will be its Achilles heel as Wakanda Forever 26 minutes is longer than Black Panther (2hr 15mins) and the audience has said that it’s about 30 minutes too long. Avatar: The Way of Water is also expected to be 30 mins longer than Avatar (2hr 42m).
Black Panther Wakanda Forever was always likely to open with $175m+ but the bigger question with these films isn’t their opening weekend but how much they will drop In their second weekend. If Wakanda Forever is the latest member of the $100m loser club, Black Panther just missed out with a $91m drop as did Thor: Love and Thunder $98.5m.
Current $100m+ losers include Avengers: Endgame, Avengers: Infinity War, Avengers: Age of Ultron, The Avengers, Captain America: Civil War, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Iron Man 3, Star Wars: Episode VIII – The Last Jedi, Star Wars: Episode IX – The Rise of Skywalker, Incredibles 2, The Lion King, Jurassic World and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice.
The problem with these films is that many of them are all hype, audiences rush out to see them over the opening weekend but then quickly move on to the next big thing.
30 MCU films have taken almost $11bn in the US ($365.83m average) and almost $27.8bn worldwide ($930.9m average)
The 7 MCU films released in 2021 and 2022 have taken $2.3bn in the US and 21% share of BO, the problem with comic-book movies is success for one only boosts the success for the next and they cannibalize the market a week before and the week after as rival studios won’t open anything major against them.
2018’s Black Panther dropped 44.7% taking $111.65m and $403.61m 57.6% of $700.06m
Black Panther 2 saw Disney’s 2022 US BO top $1bn; 1) Universal $1.4bn; 2) Paramount $1.28bn; 3) Disney $1.06bn; 4) Warner Bros $917.2m; 5) Sony $822.8m.
Avatar: The Way of Water is the must-want to see for Gen Z for Christmas according to a Fandango survey. This means very little as it’s the only film opening for Christmas targetting this demographic as the others Puss in Boots: The Last Wish plays younger while I Wanna Dance with Somebody and Babylon play older and female.
The survey also said more than two-thirds will see films in the holiday season in IMAX and Dolby Cinema and 3D, as Avatar: The Way of Water will monopolies these formats until January.
Took $69.8m (down 49%) from 50 territories and $258.3m total and $546.3m worldwide; UK $27.1m; Mexico $22.8m; France $21.6m; Brazil $14.2m; Korea $14m.
Took $34.9m globally from IMAX including $13.6m internationally
2018’s Black Panther took $83.8m in its second weekend internationally $304m total and $704m worldwide
200th biggest worldwide between American Sniper and Despicable Me; 8th biggest 2022 between Thor: Love and Thunder and Fantastic Beast 3; 44th biggest comic-book movie between Iron Man and X-Men: Apocalypse; 57th biggest Disney between Armageddon and Cinderella.
- The Menu – Searchlight Pictures
Opened with $9m; received positive reviews (91% Rotten Tomatoes) and B CinemaScore
Took $1m from Thursday previews similar to Barbarian ($850K) opening $10.5m and The Northman, ($1.35m) $12.2m.
2019’s Ready or Not opened $8.01m taking $28.71m
Box office performance of Searchlight Pictures films since Disney acquired the studio has been underwhelming releasing 13 films with The French Despatch their biggest film taking $16.12m showing these films aren’t finding a wider audience. This is highlighted by The Banshees of Inisherin taking $6.3m as it performs similarly to In Bruges ($7.8m) rather than Three Billboards ($54.51m) as the notable change has been the films have expanded from platform release much quicker. This highlights Disney’s Achilles heel for the last decade as they have struggled with original films.
Opened with $6.2m from 36 territories and $15.2m worldwide
- She Said – Universal Pictures
Opened with $2.21m #6; received positive reviews (87% Rotten Tomatoes) and A CinemaScore
Took only $160k from Thursday previews
Had its world premiere at the New York Film Festival.
Sadly, seeing the posters for She Said made me think of the 1991 film He Said, She Said which was the case before Megan Twohey and Jodi Kantor broke their story on October 5th, 2017, before then it was seen as She Said, He Said who are they going to believe the powerful influential Hollywood producer or a junior female staffer. Couch casting in Hollywood has been an open secret for probably almost a century with producers demanding junior staff and actresses demanding sexual favours for promotion or a role in their latest film.
As the News of the World phone scandal in the UK, it wasn’t just Harvey Weinstein doing this for decades many of the men in positions of power were likely doing it but he finally got caught as his films weren’t as successful making him finally accessible. Another famous Hollywood sexual abuse Hollywood scandal was against Roman Polanski who admitted to having sex with a 13 in 1977 fleeing the US after being charged. Despite this he continued making films including 2002’s The Pianist winning Best Director Oscar, he wasn’t there to collect the award instead Harrison Ford collected it on his behalf and received a standing ovation from the audience that included Harvey Weinstein.
She Said tells an important story about how New York Times journalists investigated and report the sexual abuse of women decades by Harvey Weinstein (which had been an open secret in Hollywood for decades) and helped launched the #MeToo movement.
As with Sky Atlantic’s This England drama about the UK government dealing with COVID feels that it’s far too soon for either to happen as the trial for Harvey Weinstein is currently happening while the COVID inquiry has yet to start in the UK. Films about investigation journalism discovering the truth have made for powerful films including All The President’s Men, Spotlight, The Post and American Crime Story TV series including The People v. O. J. Simpson and Impeachment). These were made several years after the events after the dust had settled, but with the trial, the ending hasn’t happened for She Said.
2019’s The Assistant told a fictionalized story of a film producer who abused his female colleagues and opened on limited release at $79,141 from 4 screens taking $1.1m
Also, in 2019 Bombshell opened with $319,157 (4 screens) taking $5.1m wide and $31.76m
2002’s Secretary opening $182,306 (11 screens) (went to a max of 149 screens) taking $4.05m
1988’s The Accused opened $4.31m taking $32.07m
Some other journalistic films fact and fiction
2015’s Spotlight opened $295,009 (5 screens) and slowly expanded into 1,000+ screens after 6 weeks taking $45.05m
2015’s Truth opened $66,232 (6 screens) taking $2.54m
2014’s Kill the Messenger opened $941,809 taking $2.45m
2009’s State of Play opened $14.07m taking $37.01m
2008’s Frost/Nixon opened $180,708 (3 screens) taking $18.62m
2007’s Zodiac opened $13.39m taking $33.08m
2005’s Good Night and Good Luck opened $421,446 (11 screens) taking $31.55m
2003’s Shattered Glass opened $77,540 (8 screens) taking $2.22m
1999’s The Insider opened $6.71m taking $29.08m
1997’s Wag the Dog opened $92,079 (3 screens) taking $43.06m
1993’s The Pelican Brief opened $16.86m taking $100.76m
1987’s Broadcast News opened $197,542 (7 screens) taking $31.29m
And older classics like 1976’s Network and All The President’s Men
She Said is one of several films targetting older audiences that have received critical acclaim over recent months but have struggled to find an audience in cinemas, it comes soon after Armageddon Time which took $1.83m in the US and $3.9m worldwide ($2.05m internationally from 6 territories)
Opened with $572k from 26 territories and $2.82m worldwide
- Black Adam – Warner Bros
Dropped 43% in the fifth weekend $4.61m #4 and $157.1m
365th biggest film between X-Men and Scary Movie; 753rd biggest inflation inflated between The Secret of My Success and Meatballs; 9th biggest 2022 film between Sonic the Hedgehog 2 and Elvis; 63rd biggest comic-book movie between X-Men and X-Men: Apocalypse; 60th biggest Warner Bros film between Fantastic Beasts 2 and San Andreas.
Fifth weekends
2019’s Shazam! dropped 55.1% $2.5m and $135.24m of $140.48m and $366.08m WW
2018’s Aquaman dropped 41.4% by $10.17m and $304.18m of $335.1m and $1.138bn WW
While Dwayne Johnson’s 2019’s Hobbs & Shaw dropped 19.9% by $6.46m and $164.34m of $173.95m and $759.05m WW
2021’s Eternals dropped 48.4% by $4.09m and $156.68m of $164m and $402.06m WW
2005’s Fantastic Four dropped 38.3% $4.26m and $143.99m of $154.69m and $333.53m WW
Took $5.1m from 76 territories and $209.2m and $366.9m worldwide; UK $21.1m; France $15.1m, Mexico $13.9m; Brazil $13.5m; Australia $10.7m.
380th biggest film worldwide between Penguins of Madagascar and Hitch; 14th biggest 2022 worldwide between Uncharted and Elvis; 61st biggest comic-book film between Captain America: The First Avenger and Shazam!; 70th biggest Warner Bros film worldwide between Edge of Tomorrow and Terminator Salvation.
- Ticket To Paradise – Universal Pictures
Dropped 46% in the fifth weekend $3.19m and $61.54m
1,419th biggest film between Onward and Deepwater Horizon; 2,291st biggest inflation inflated between Onward and Predator 2; 28th biggest 2022 film between Dog and jackass forever; 61st biggest rom-com between Splash and The Wedding Planner; 197th biggest Universal Pictures film between Cinderella Man and Friday Night Lights.
Fifth weekends
Selective George Clooney films
1996’s One Fine Day was down 21% $2.72m and $41.04m of $46.15m and $97.52m WW;
2009’s Up In The Air dropped 28.3% by $3.9m and $69.24m of $83.82m and $166.84m WW
Selective Julia Roberts films
1990’s Pretty Woman is down 17.7% by $8.32m and $71.72m of $178.4m; $463.4m WW
1997’s My Best Friend’s Wedding dropped 21.6% $4.51m and $94.72m of $127.12m; $299.28m WW
1999’s Runaway Bride dropped 26.1% by $6.84m and $124.42m of $152.25m; $309.46m WW
2001’s America’s Sweethearts dropped 47.6% by $2.3m and $87.76m of $93.6m; $138.3m WW
George Clooney and Julia Roberts previously worked together on 2001’s Ocean’s Eleven 2002’s Confessions of a Dangerous Mind (took $16m) 2004’s Ocean’s Twelve and 2016’s Money Monster dropped 62.4% $700,810 and $39.76m of $41.01m; $93.28m WW
It was described as a kind of sequel to 1990s rom-coms like Notting Hill (dropped 20% $5.52m and $89.51m of $116.1m and $363.88m WW) and 1994’s Four Wedding and a Funeral down 8.8% $3.64m (after 4 weeks platform) and $28.97m of $52.7m
Took $1.07m from 79 territories $95.64m total (taking more than both The Lost City and House of Gucci internationally) and $157.1m; 1,120th biggest worldwide between The Black Phone and The Muppets; 29th biggest 2022 between The Black Phone and Scream; 45th biggest rom-com between Midnight in Paris and America’s Sweethearts; 147th biggest Universal Pictures film between The Black Phone and Hellboy II: The Golden Army.
- The Fabelmans – Universal Pictures
Dropped 44% in the second weekend taking $89,733 from 4 screens and $309,655
The Steven Spielberg-directed film premiered at the Toronto Film Festival receiving two standing ovations and widespread critical acclaim; (95% Rotten Tomatoes) expand to 600 screens next weekend.
The first Steven Spielberg film to open on platform release since 2017’s The Post second weekend 561,080 up 6.7% from 9 screens and $1.76m; expanded to 36 screens in the third weekend and wide in the fourth with $19.36,
2012’s Lincoln opened $944,308 from 11 screens and expanded wide in the second weekend with $21.04m
1993’s Schindler’s List added 49 screens in the second weekend into 74 screens up 95.5% taking $1.28m and $2.79m, slowly expanding and didn’t play into over 1,000 screens until its 14th week of release.
Despite being a film directed by Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans can’t be compared with those historical dramas, being a coming-of-age drama. It’s also going to be released on VOD in December so as many other films targetting older audiences despite receiving critical acclaim will struggle to find a wider audience. The film is expected to take about $5m over Thanksgiving weekend which will be another disappointing performance for Steen Spielberg directed film after last year’s West Side Story.
Steven Spielberg has talked about the evils of HBO Max and Warner Bros’ decision to release their 2021 films on HBO same time as a theatrical release but if audiences aren’t going to see these films in the same numbers, they did a decade ago in cinemas then studios must give them alternative release to try to get them to be seen by as wide an audience as they deserve to be seen.
It was the best bad idea Warner Bros had to release their films on HBO Max in 2021 as otherwise it would have meant delaying them to this year as rival studios did. Sony and Paramount were slated to delay their films in 2021 by exhibitors but were heralded by them this year.
- Bones And All – MGM
Opened with $121,004 from 5 screens; received positive reviews (87% Rotten Tomatoes)
Had world premiere at the Venice Film Festival, winning the Silver Lion for best direction
Expands into 2,500+ screens next weekend
UK Box Office Top 10
UK Box Office Preview
Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical has been generating strong buzz since having its world premiere at the London Film Festival last month, generating positive reviews. British cinemagoers love Ronald Dahl’s film adaptations.
1990’s The Witches opened £168,742 (£585,165 inflated) taking £2,135,460 (£7,405,372 inflated)
1996’s Matilda opened £1,252,726 (£2,735,683 inflated) taking £10,227,163 (£22,333,913 inflated)
1996’s James And The Giant Peach opened £399,412 (£872,229 inflated) taking £5,750,628 (£12,558,128 inflated)
2005’s Charlie and the Chocolate Factory opened £7,972,168 (£13,676,246 inflated) taking £37,354,584 (£64,081,749 inflated)
2009’s Fantastic Mr Fox opened £1,517,312 taking £9,260,892
2016’s The BFG opened £5,288,529 taking £30,694,086
While the stage musical had been hugely popular selling over 11m seats and British cinemagoers love their cinematic musicals and Matilda the Musical is the perfect antidote for the cold wet weather and children who have been lacking good family entertainment in cinemas this year.
The first film adaptation was released in Christmas 1996 and directed by Danny DeVito was the 14th biggest film of the year in the UK, making £10,227,163 and would expect Matilda the Musical to open with about £3m in the UK and likely play through to January, Sony has already dated the sing-along version of the film to be released for Christmas.
Black Panther Wakanda Forever will drop about 50% and likely see a big drop off again on Friday due to the England Vs USA World Cup match with 15m+ likely to watch on TV.
Disney’s Strange World surprisingly opens against Matilda the Musical as Disney delayed the release of Coco from November 2017 to January 2018 to avoid opening against Paddington 2. As it’s probably due to being released on Disney+ on Christmas Day they couldn’t delay the release, but as with Encanto films still perform strongly after being released on Disney+ with Encanto taking a third of its BO after.
Disney is trying to get a head start over Matilda by opening the film on Wednesday in the UK as it is in the US (for Thanksgiving) but with children in school, it’s unlikely to help. Strange World is likely to open similarly to Encanto £1.6m-£1.9m.
If Netflix report BO for Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery it will open fourth 2019’s Knives Out opened for £2,937,305 (including £699,723 previews) taking £10,573,381, so the sequel that also received strong buzz and positive reviews since London Film Festival premiere should open with £1.5m+ (that said this weekend is anything but normal with four wide new releases and World Cup happening.
The two other new releases are likely to struggle to find an audience She Said after having a disappointing opening in the US last weekend is likely to open similar to 2003’s Secretary #11 with £165,318 from 30 screens taking £829,624. While Bones and All will show if Timothée Chalamet has star power. Again, it had its UK premiere at the London Film Festival and received critical acclaim, but the question is will audiences go for a coming-of-age cannibal road film whilst tucking in with their hotdog? Probably likely to open with 1999’s Ravenous opened #9 with £146,298 from 127 screens or 1993’s Alive £443,875 (£1,117,293 inflated) taking £2,704,459 (£6,807,486 inflated).
With all of those new releases, all the holdovers are likely to drop heavily (over 50%) as with last weekend there could be up to 5 new entries in the top 10 as studios open their films before Avatar: The Way of Water opens in a month’s time.
Opening in two weeks
- A Love Song – Sony Pictures
Drama starring Dale Dickey and Wes Studi written and directed by Max Walker-Silverman
Premiered at the Sundance Film Festival and received positive reviews (95% Rotten Tomatoes); Stage 6 Films acquired worldwide rights in February 2022. The film opened in US cinemas in July.
- The Silent Twins – Universal Pictures
Biographical drama starring Letitia Wright and Tamara Lawrance and directed by Agnieszka Smoczyńska based on the book by Marjorie Wallace.
It had world premiere at the 2022 Cannes Film Festival receiving mixed reviews (67% Rotten Tomatoes) Universal Pictures acquired global rights in April 2021.
