- Roald Dahl’s Matilda The Musical – £4,135,418 – NE
Took £887k (21.4%) from Friday; £1.744m (42.2%) Saturday; £1,484m (35.9%) Sunday
355th biggest opening between Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer and Johnny English Strikes Back (close to Pitch Perfect 3, Night at the Museum 2, A Star Is Born and Elvis) and 560th biggest inflation inflated between What Lies Beneath and Honey, I Shrunk the Kids (close to Crocodile Dundee, Aladdin (1993), Evita and Hook).
Had a musical opening close to Michael Jackson’s This Is It, The Greatest Showman, A Star Is Born and One Direction: This Is Us and inflation inflated close to Moulin Rouge, Spice World, Chicago, and Hairspray.
British audiences love seeing musicals even films that underwhelmed have performed stronger in the UK including most recently In The Heights and Cats. So, the combination of musical, based on a hugely popular stage show, Roald Dahl and with a strong British cast it was a no brainer that Matilda was going to open strongly and have long legs, as that’s the other thing musicals do in the UK have long legs.
19th biggest family film opening between Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip and Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (close to Peter Rabbit 2, Elf, Happy Feet and Doctor Dolittle) and the 31st inflation inflated between Nanny McPhee and Honey, I Shrunk the Kids (close to E.T (1982), Who Framed Roger Rabbit, Enchanted and Casper).
So many films get described as “the movie we need right now” but Matilda The Musical is that film after all the doom and gloom with the news, and the cold wet weather, a feel-good musical is a perfect antidote, while for non-football or comic-book dans it’s the perfect alternative.
It’s interesting that after all the hostility major exhibitors have had to Netflix over the last few years two of their films performed strongly at the BO over the weekend. Netflix didn’t report BO for Green Onion: A Knives Out Mystery but going by how it opened in the US likely opened with £600k+.
It’s the second film adaptation of the book based on the stage musical by Tim Minchin based on the book Matilda by Roald Dahl. The 1996 film was directed by Danny DeVito, the 14th biggest film of 1996 in the UK, taking £10,227,163 (£22,333,913 inflated).
Roald Dahl’s film adaptations have been very popular in the UK as are musicals and the stage show of Matilda has been very popular since it premiered in 2010 receiving critical acclaim and selling over 11m seats worldwide. The film will stay #1 until Avatar: The Way of Water opens in three weeks but is likely to have longer legs playing through to half-term as Paddington did in 2014, as it is a film many will see several times as Sony is releasing a sing-along version in a month. While it’s the only major family film to open until Puss In Boots: The Last Wish (February 3rd).
Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical has been generating strong buzz since having its world premiere at the London Film Festival last month, generating positive reviews. The film is released exclusively in cinemas in the UK and on Netflix in the US and the rest of the world on 9th December 2022.
While the stage musical had been hugely popular selling over 11m seats and British cinemagoers love their cinematic musicals and Matilda the Musical is the perfect antidote for the cold wet weather and children who have been lacking good family entertainment in cinemas this year.
Sony has already dated the sing-along version of the film to be released for Christmas.
1990’s The Witches opened £168,742 (£585,165 inflated) taking £2,135,460 (£7,405,372 inflated)
1996’s Matilda opened £1,252,726 (£2,735,683 inflated) taking £10,227,163 (£22,333,913 inflated)
1996’s James And The Giant Peach opened £399,412 (£872,229 inflated) taking £5,750,628 (£12,558,128 inflated)
2005’s Charlie and the Chocolate Factory opened £7,972,168 (£13,676,246 inflated) taking £37,354,584 (£64,081,749 inflated)
2009’s Fantastic Mr Fox opened £1,517,312 taking £9,260,892
2016’s The BFG opened £5,288,529 taking £30,694,086
Matilda the Musical should be a big family Christmas film and an alternative to Black Panther Wakanda Forever and Avatar The Way of Water and be an alternative for the World Cup.
- 2. Black Panther Wakanda Forever – £2,694,447 – £27,066,684
Dropped 56% in its third weekend; £1,042,507 less than Black Panther (£3,736,954)
Took £541k Friday 21% (down 65% £1.51m); £1.287m Saturday 48% (down 55% £2.85m); £862k Sunday 32% (down 53% £1.83m); Friday dropped heavier due to 18.1m watching England Vs USA World Cup match on ITV1.
Had a similar 3rd weekend as The LEGO Batman Movie, The Lion King (1994), Spider-Man, Spider-Man 3 and Men In Black and a similar inflation-inflated 3rd weekend as The Matrix, True Lies, Spider-Man 2, Lethal Weapon 3, Men In Black 2 and X-Men.
Would have surely expected it after all the previous success of MCU films and the first Black Panther for it take £3m+ in its third weekend. As all of the new releases were targeting different demographics they can’t be used as an excuse.
14th biggest MCU third weekend between Iron Man 3 (£6,307,191) and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 (£6,097,082) close to Captain Marvel (£6,643,217) and Doctor Strange 2 (£5,690,351)
13th biggest MCU film after 17 days between Spider-Man: Far From Home (£27,220,581) and Thor: Love and Thunder (£26,485,918);
17th biggest MCU film between Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 1 (£28,326,152) and Doctor Strange (£23,158,549) close to Thor: Ragnarök, Thor: The Dark World and Captain America: Winter Soldier).
165th biggest film between The Twilight Saga: New Moon and X-Men: Days of Future Past (close to Shrek, The Pirates of the Caribbean, The Lost World: Jurassic Park and Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me) and 364th biggest inflation inflated between Trainspotting and Van Helsing (close to Batman Returns (£10,979,599), Top Gun (£6,427,039), The Naked Gun (£7,740,553) and Speed (£10,752,912).
(Will shortly become the 137th film to take £30m+ at the BO since 1993’s Jurassic Park)
29th biggest comic-book movie between Spider-Man and X-Men: Days of Future Past (close to Deadpool 2, Man of Steel, Hancock and Logan) and 48th biggest inflated between X-Men and Iron Man (close to Batman Returns, Men in Black 3, Superman Returns and X-Men Origins: Wolverine).
After 3 weeks Black Panther had taken 70% of its total BO (£35,362,230) Wakanda Forever has taken 24% less and is likely to take about £36m (26% less than Black Panther) similar to BO as both Doctor Strange 2 and Thor: Love Thunder showing that MCU solo films have plateaued since Captain America: Civil War.
Next year’s MCU films are unlikely to change this (Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 and The Marvels) with the possibility of the four DC films (Shazam! Fury of the Gods, The Flash, Blue Beetle and Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom getting much closer to MCU BO than would have expected. This is of course why Avengers 5 and 6 are planned for 2024 and 2025 and why so many MCU solo films now feel like Avengers 2.1 films.
The 30 MCU films have taken £1.01bn at the UK BO since Iron Man was released in May 2008 (£1.25bn inflated).
2018’s Black Panther dropped 46% in its third weekend £3,736,954 taking £35,362,230 71% of £49,858,826 with two wide releases opening (Red Sparrow #2 £1,843,124 and Game Night #4 £1,094,478) along with strong holdovers The Greatest Showman £1,239,069 #3, Lady Bird £926,935 #5, Coco £556,898 #7 and I, Tonya £547,455 #8.
Spider-Man: No Way Home (2022 BO); Doctor Strange 2; Thor: Love and Thunder and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever have taken £150m+ between them in 2022 about 20% of 2022 BO to date. Adding all comic-book films together will take about £250m, about 25% of 2022 BO.
- 3. Strange World – £833,043 – NE
Includes £115k from previews Wednesday/Thursday (took £50k on Weds and £65k Thurs).
Friday £79k (9.5%); Saturday £362k (43.4%); Sunday £391k (47%)
28th biggest Disney Animated classic opening (since 1989) between Brother Bear (£887,321) and The Little Mermaid (£405,473) close to Meet the Robinsons, Treasure Planet and Oliver & Company) and 30th biggest inflation-inflated Disney Animated classic between Oliver & Company and The Rescuers Down Under.
There has been a lack of family films this year why Minions: The Rise of Gru and DC League of Super-Pets held well in cinemas for many weeks after being released on VOD. Strange World is the first family film to open in the UK since Lyle, Lyle Crocodile last month, but faces immediate competition from Matilda the Musical opening two days later, Roald Dahl film adaptations have been hugely popular in the UK.
It was a surprising decision to open Strange World on Wednesday (the same day as the US) as would have limited BO potential due to it being a school day. It was also a surprising decision knowing Matilda was opening on Friday to release Strange World so close as it was always going to harm its BO. The problem is studios rarely date local films anymore, despite Disney regularly holding back their June animated films to July, until 2019 when they opened Toy Story 4 in June.
In 2017 Disney delayed Coco to January 2018 to avoid its opening against Paddington 2, instead, they screened Olaf’s Christmas Adventure the first week of December with Frozen with tickets £1m (£1,115,689 #5 from 611 screens with 1.11m admissions that was more than Daddy’s Home 2 #1 £4,919,051 and Paddington 2 £4,545,218 3rd weekend).
The problem of course is with global openings set to US release Strange World will be released on Disney+ on Christmas Eve in 4 weeks so Disney couldn’t have delayed the film, which said Encanto took a third (£1.75m) of its £7.2m BO in the UK after being released on Disney+ (£5.2m). Likewise, many other films have found audiences in cinemas many weeks after they were available to watch at home (Minions The Rise of Gru took £18,155 in its 22nd week taking £46.8m (£8m+ after VOD release).
Buzz has been soft for Strange World as has marketing, apart from the Meerkat Movies promotional TV advert. While the film has been overshadowed by one line of LGBTQ dialogue in the film as has been the case with several other films that feel like they were added for effect and not to add to the story.
The 33 Disney animated classics have taken £450m at the UK BO since 1989 and £720m inflation inflated. Disney would regularly re-release their classic animated films and they were always very popular in cinemas as they found new audiences each time the reimaginations Disney have made over the last decade is just a new way to show their classic films to new audiences.
- 4. She Said – £444,806 – NE
Took £95k from previews
£80k Friday (18%); £152k Saturday (34.1%); £117k Sunday (26.3%)
After struggling to find an audience in the US last weekend it was likely to struggle to find an audience in the UK, especially with a crowded marketplace for adult dramas with The Menu, Bones and All, Living, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery and Banshees Of Inisherin.
Had its world premiere at the New York Film Festival; received positive reviews (87% on Rotten Tomatoes)
Seeing the posters for She Said on buses made me think of the 1991 film He Said, She Said, this was the case in Hollywood before Megan Twohey and Jodi Kantor broke their story on October 5th, 2017. Then it was seen as She Said, He Said, as for decades it was always the powerful influential Hollywood producer believed over the junior female staffer. This is despite couch casting in Hollywood being an open secret for probably almost a century with producers demanding junior staff and actresses demanding sexual favours for promotion or a role in their latest film.
Another famous Hollywood sexual abuse Hollywood scandal was against Roman Polanski who admitted to having sex with a 13 in 1977 fleeing the US after being charged. Despite this he continued making films including 2002’s The Pianist winning Best Director Oscar, he wasn’t there to collect the award instead Harrison Ford collected it on his behalf and received a standing ovation from the audience that included Harvey Weinstein.
She Said tells an important story about how New York Times journalists investigated and report the sexual abuse of women decades by Harvey Weinstein (which had been an open secret in Hollywood for decades) and helped launched the #MeToo movement.
As with Sky Atlantic’s This England drama about the UK government dealing with COVID feels that it’s far too soon for to happen as the trial for Harvey Weinstein is currently happening while the COVID inquiry has yet to start in the UK. Films about investigation journalism discovering the truth have made for powerful films including All The President’s Men, Spotlight, The Post and American Crime Story TV series including The People v. O. J. Simpson and Impeachment). These were made several years after the events after the dust had settled, but with the trial, the ending hasn’t happened for She Said.
Some other journalistic films fact and fiction
2009’s Frost/Nixon opened £591,411 taking £1,338,575
2006’s Good Night and Good Luck opened £405,200 #8 from 88 screens taking £2,088,488
2004’s Shattered Glass opened £46,921 #14 from 41 screens
1988’s Broadcast News opened £128,836 (£452,606 inflated) taking £1,012,749 (£3,557,831 inflated)
And older classics like 1976’s Network and All The President’s Men
She Said is one of several films targetting older audiences that have received critical acclaim over recent months but have struggled to find an audience in cinemas, it comes soon a week after Armageddon Time opened #15 with £67,043 from 305 screens despite receiving positive reviews.
Took $1.3m from 48 territories and $6.4m worldwide
- 5. The Menu – £429,522 – £1,960,561
Down 53.9% in the second weekend
Took £102k Friday 24% (dropped 61.1% (£262k); £195k Saturday 45%; £132k Sunday 31%
Had it opened in under 300 screens The Menu BO would be strong but it opened in 610 as so many similar films targetting older that will struggle to find an audience, with Strange World opening in its second weekend The Menu shared screens with it for evening shows.
Other second weekends social commentary horrors include
2019’s Ready Or Not dropped 73% (64% not including previews) £253,340 #10 taking £1,637,064
Triangle Of Sadness dropped 30% #8 £216,755 from 175 screens and £692,289 of £1,287,088
2015’s It Follows dropped 38% #10 £229,927 from 254 screens and £819,105 of £1,058,742
2000’s American Psycho dropped 34% £494,428 and £1,782,429 taking £3,141,585 (£5,769,092 inflated)
While 2020’s Parasite increased 81% #2 £2,523,518 from 428 screens and £5,092,732 of £12.03m
Anya Taylor-Joy recently starred in The Northman (taking £4.7m), Last Night in Soho (taking £2,255,648) and Amsterdam (taking £1,567,841). Next up voices Princess Peach in The Super Mario Bros. Movie and Mad Max spinoff Furiosa in 2024. Is best known for starring in 2020’s Netflix’s The Queen’s Gambit.
Also opened
• Bones And All – Warner Bros
Opened #6 with £318,246 from 468 screens
Included £108k from previews Weds/Thurs
Coming-of-age cannibal road film starring Taylor Russell, Timothée Chalamet, Mark Rylance, Michael Stuhlbarg, André Holland, Chloë Sevigny, David Gordon Green, and Jessica Harper and directed by Luca Guadagnino based on the 2015 novel by Camille DeAngelis.
It received its world premiere at the Venice Film Festival, winning the Silver Lion for best direction and received critical acclaim (87% Rotten Tomatoes) for its performances, direction, cinematography, and fusion of genres. Had a UK premiere at the London Film Festival.
Warner Bros released the MGM film as part of the international distribution deal announced in August with Creed 3 being the second film they will release In March. MGM films were previously released internationally via Universal Pictures which will still release Bond 26, but Warner will release Bond 27 internationally. After decades of going from almost bankruptcy to being sold MGM has finally got strong foundations owned by Amazon and the studio is key for their streaming service a key part of Amazon Prime. So, the future of MGM is stable for the first time in over 30 years.
Hard to make any direct comparisons to cannibal comedy horror 1999’s Ravenous opened #9 with £146,298 from 127 screens (opened the same weekend as Eyes Wide Shut (£1,189,672 from 344 screens)
While historical cannibal 1993’s Alive opened £443,875 (£1,117,293 inflated) taking £2,704,459 (£6,807,486 inflated).
While cannibal thrillers 1991’s The Silence of the Lambs opened £2,322,879 (£6,194,344 inflated) taking £17,119,333 (£45,651,555 inflated); 2001’s Hannibal opened £6,402,540 (£12,495,779 inflated) taking £21,578,566 (£42,114,689 inflated) and 2002’s Red Dragon opened £3,180,493 (£6,207,339 inflated) taking £9,511,130 (£18,562,785 inflated).
Netflix didn’t report BO for the film but going by how it opened in the US Glass Onion probably opened with between £600k-£800k which would have seen it #4 between Strange World and She Said.
Sequel to 2019’s Knives Out starring Daniel Craig, Edward Norton, Kate Hudson, and Dave Bautista and directed by Rian Johnson.
In March 2021 Netflix acquired rights to two sequels to Knives Out for $469m
The film had its world premiere at Toronto Film Festival receiving positive reviews (80% Rotten Tomatoes) and it closed the London Film Festival, after much discussion, Netflix announced in October that major exhibitors would show the film in cinemas for a week in November a month before being released on Netflix. Much was made about this announcement, but independent exhibitors have been screening Netflix films for many years, but Netflix has never revealed their BO.
2019’s Knives Out opened for £2,937,305 (including £699,723 previews) taking £10,573,381
The film will be released in cinemas for one week after Netflix reached an agreement with major exhibitors to show the film after they refused to book their films previously as Netflix demand a shorter theatrical window. Independent exhibitors have been screening Netflix films in their cinemas for many years, major exhibitors’ refusal to book Netflix films has been short-sighted and double standards as they are willing to book Event Cinema screenings with often much short theatrical windows.
UK box office in detail
This weekend’s top 10 box office took £9,383,987 down 1.4% from last weekend’s £9,511,327: 1,153,843 admissions down 1.4% from 1,170,089
636th biggest top 10 of the last 21 years (out of 1,076) between 07 August 2009 #1 £4,135,418 (44.1% of top 10) and 07 September 2018 #1 The Nun £4,098,198 (43.7% of top 10) and 923rd biggest inflation inflated between 14 March 2008 #1 10,000B.C. £1,932,539 (31.9% of top 10) and 18 April 2008 #1 21 £1,010,923 (16.8% of top 10).
Top 3 took £7,662,908 81.7% of the top 10; Roald Dahl’s Matilda The Musical 44.1% (£4,135,418); Black Panther Wakanda Forever 28.7% (£2,694,447); Strange World 8.9% (£833,043)
Taking 44.1% of the top 10 it’s the 322nd highest percentage #1 between 06 December 2013 Frozen £4,704,940 (44.2%) and 08 March 2013 Oz: The Great and Powerful £3,712,948 (44%
Up 8.9% from 2021 (£8,620,083); House Of Gucci (£2,425,628); Encanto (£1,720,132); Anything Goes – The Musical (£371,880); A Boy Called Christmas (£120,770); #1 House Of Gucci £2,425,628 1st week 683 screens (28.1% of top 10).
2020 COVID Second Lockdown
Down 57.2% 2019 (£21,913,354); Frozen 2 (£15,088,012); Blue Story (£1,324,510); 21 Bridges (£655,213); Akhnaten – Met Opera 2019 (£170,400); Harriet (£115,120); #1 Frozen 2 £15,088,012 1st week 671 screens (68.85% of top 10)
Down 38.4% 2018:(£15,238,186); Robin Hood (£1,330,387); Nativity Rocks! (£834,414); The Girl in the Spider’s Web (£557,403); Shoplifters (£117,555); Assassination Nation (£70,891); Nobody’s Fool (£70,703); #1 Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald £5,622,755 2nd week 679 screens 54% drop (36.9% of top 10)
Down 45.2% 2017: (£17,120,343); Daddy’s Home 2 (£4,919,051); Frozen (£1,115,689); Battle of the Sexes (£552,521); Suburbicon (£231,412); The Star (£204,497); #1 Daddy’s Home 2 £4,919,051 1st week 505 screens (28.7% of the top 10)
Down 34.7% 2016: (£14,354,042); Allied (£1,331,919); Bad Santa 2 (£799,156); A United Kingdom (£618,652); Paterson (£169,911); Almost Christmas (£60,991); #1 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them £8,892,489 2nd week 666 screens 42% drop (62% of the top 10)
Down 36.3% 2015; (£14,738,989); The Good Dinosaur (£2,926,448); Bridge of Spies (£1,682,392); Black Mass (£1,272,249); Carol (£540,632); Being A.P. (£49,867); Doctor Zhivago (Re: 2015) (£16,344); #1 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 £4,534,464 2nd week 579 screens 60% drop (30.8% of top 10)
Down 38.4% 2014: (£15,237,651); Paddington (£5,125,519); Horrible Bosses 2 (£1,257,808); 2001: A Space Odyssey (Re: 2014) (£69,567); I Am Ali (£8,131); #1 Paddington £5,125,519 1st week 518 screens (33.6% of top 10)
Down 52.4% 2013: (£19,719,142); The Hunger Games: Catching Fire (£12,189,733); Doctor Who: The Day of the Doctor (£1,798,629); The Family (£444,659); Andre Rieu: Home for Christmas (£290,173); Blue is the Warmest Colour (£142,077); Parkland (£114,321); #1 The Hunger Games: Catching Fire £12,189,733 1st week 554 screens (61.8% of top 10)
Down 36.9% 2012 (£14,870,977); Nativity 2: Danger in the Manger! (£1,614,675); Silver Linings Playbook (£1,260,979); Gambit (£689,042); End of Watch (£618,546); Lawrence of Arabia (re: 2012) (£18,431); #1 The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 2 £5,344,508 2nd week 559 screens 66% drop (36% of top 10)
Down 11.1% 2011 (£10,545,613); My Week with Marilyn (£749,819); 50/50 (£410,251); Dream House (£304,239); Moneyball (£230,848); The Deep Blue Sea (£108,767); Take Shelter (£83,982); #1 The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 1 £4,574,978 2nd week 546 screens 67% drop (43.4% of top 10)
Down 24.2% 2010: (£12,372,683); Unstoppable (£1,714,871); London Boulevard (£577,224); The American (£411,707); The Girl Who Kicked the Hornet’s Nest (£219,259); Machete (£90,423); #1 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows 1 £8,344,776 2nd week 581 screens 54% drop (67.4% of top 10)
Down 38.1% 2009; (£15,162,202); Paranormal Activity (£3,593,762); Law Abiding Citizen (£1,488,143); Nativity (£794,314); Bunny and the Bull (£40,801); #1 The Twilight Saga: New Moon £4,303,257 2nd week 504 screens 63% drop (28.4% of top 10)
Up 39.4% 2008; (£6,730,148); Four Christmases (£2,275,585); Changeling (£1,225,548); What Just Happened? (£178,818); Tim Burton’s Nightmare Before Christmas 3D (£23,640); #1 Four Christmases £2,275,585 1st week 434 screens (33.8% of top 10)
Up 39.4% 2007: (£6,731,904); The Darjeeling Limited (£435,198); August Rush (£359,564); Shrooms (£313,758); Sleuth (£165,788); Rescue Dawn (£89,988); Blade Runner – Director’s Cut (£15,580); #1 American Gangster £1,817,691 2nd week 416 screens 29% drop (27% of top 10)
Down 24% 2006; (£12,348,508); Flushed Away (£3,106,874); Deck the Halls (£600,047); Stranger than Fiction (£368,627); Big Nothing (£83,829); London to Brighton (£29,153); #1 Casino Royale £5,307,969 2nd week 506 screens 38% drop (43% of top 10)
Down 37.5% 2005 (£15,013,252); Flight Plan (£1,694,350); Exorcism of Emily Rose (£1,346,732); Mrs. Henderson Presents (£752,394); The Transporter 2 (£414,400); #1 Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire £9,275,599 2nd week 536 screens (61.8% of top 10)
Down 39.1% from 2004 (£15,406,511); The Incredibles (£9,753,035); The Forgotten (£653,945); Beyond the Sea (£179,558); Enduring Love (£165,338); I Love Huckabees (£155,592); #1 The Incredibles £9,753,035 1st week 494 screens (63.3% of top 10)
Down 28.4% from 2003 (£13,095,047); Elf (£4,538,440); Master and Commander (£1,845,125); Spin the Bottle (£95,533); #1 Love Actually £4,660,595 2nd week 478 screens 30% drop (35.6% of top 10)
Down 48.5% 2002 (£18,217,586); Die Another Day (£9,122,344); Anita & Me (£453,613); #1 Die Another Day £9,122,344 1st week 430 screens (50.1% of top 10)
Down 19% 2001 (£11,583,257); Spy Game (£1,019,847); The Heist (£100,229); Baby Boy (£47,144); Me Without You (£45,532); #1 Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone £8,362,749 2nd week 507 screens 49% drop (72.2% of top 10);
Next weekend 2021 (£6,103,233); Christmas With Andre (£693,676); Boxing Day (£265,263); Resident Evil: Welcome To Raccoon City (£253,200); The Matrix (Re: 2021) (£128,585); Elf (Re: 2021) (£111,036); C’mon C’mon (£106,680); CBeebies Christmas Show 2021 (£105,864); Love Actually (Re: 2021) (£24,848); It’s A Wonderful Life (1946) (75th Anniversary) (£27,723); Eurydice – Met Opera 2021 (£25,683); Blue Bayou (£8,975); #1 House of Gucci £1,511,982 2nd week 706 screens 38% drop (24.8% of top 10)
US Box Office
- Black Panther Wakanda Forever – Disney
Dropped 31% in the third weekend $45.58m ($63.8m over 5 days) and $367.47m
13th biggest 3rd weekend between Incredibles 2 ($46.41m) and Beauty and the Beast ($45.42m) (close to Spider-Man ($45.03m); The Dark Knight ($42.66m) and Wonder Woman ($41.26m)
6th biggest MCU 3rd the weekend between The Avengers and Avengers: Age of Ultron
Captain Marvel #37 ($34.27m); Captain America: Civil War #42 ($32.93m); Doctor Strange 2 #44 ($32.3m); Thor: Love and Thunder #114 ($22.55m) and Thor: Ragnarok #129 ($21.66m) while Black Panther #3 ($66.3m)
Impossible to compare the third weekend being Thanksgiving all films dropped much lower than they would normally, (a normal third weekend would have taken similar to The Batman at $36.72m and next weekend will take similar to its 4th weekend at $20.5m).
56th biggest film between Despicable Me 2 and The Jungle Book; 142nd biggest inflation inflated between Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban and Mission: Impossible 2; 6th biggest 2022 between The Batman and Thor: Love and Thunder; 19th biggest comic-book movie between The Batman and Deadpool; 26th biggest Disney between Finding Nemo and The Jungle Book.
7th biggest MCU after 17 days between Avengers: Age of Ultron ($372.03m) and Captain America: Civil War ($347.21m) close to Doctor Strange 2 and Iron Man 3
All of these stats show MCU non-Avengers films have plateaued since Civil War in 2016, of course, many deny this (as there also was for Disney’s Star Wars films) but after steady growth for the first 13 films over the first year the films that followed haven’t seen growth as big since.
EntTelligence reports the average ticket price for normal formats is $11.19 while IMAX/PLF is $15.64 but NATO hasn’t updated their average price since 2019 of $9.16.
Some believe the running time will be its Achilles heel as Wakanda Forever 26 minutes is longer than Black Panther (2hr 15mins) and the audience has said that it’s about 30 minutes too long. Avatar: The Way of Water is also expected to be 30 mins longer than Avatar (2hr 42m).
30 MCU films have taken $11bn in the US ($365.83m average) and $27.8bn worldwide ($930.9m average)
The 7 MCU films released in 2021 and 2022 have taken $2.3bn in the US and 21% share of BO, the problem with comic-book movies is success for one only boosts the success for the next and they cannibalize the market a week before and the week after as rival studios won’t open anything major against them.
Took $32.1m (down 53%) from 50 territories and $307.9m total and $675.37m worldwide; the UK $32.3m; Mexico $29.3m; France $25.2m; Brazil $16.2m; Korea $15.9m.
Taken $43.5m globally from IMAX
142nd biggest worldwide between Doctor Strange and The Sixth Sense; 7th biggest 2022 between Thor: Love and Thunder and Fantastic Beast 3; 35th biggest comic-book movie between Doctor Strange and Man of Steel; 44th biggest Disney between Doctor Strange and The Sixth Sense.
- Strange World – Disney
Opened with $12.15m ($18.85m over 5 days); received mixed reviews (72% Rotten Tomatoes); and B CinemaScore
Took $800k from Tuesday midnights
It’s the first Disney animated film not to get an A+/A CinemaScore since 1991
Lowest Disney Animated Classic opening since 2011’s Winnie the Pooh and their lowest original animated film since 2002’s Treasure Planet ($12.08m); 2003’s Brother Bear ($19.4m) and 2004’s Home on the Range ($13.88m). Disney’s next 62nd is set for release next November.
Since 1988’s Olive & Company November has become the home of Disney animated films releasing 18th animated films since. Disney has had 5 of the 10 biggest Thanksgiving openings (Frozen 2; Frozen; Ralph Breaks the Internet; Moana and Toy Story 2).
The most recent Disney animated original film 2021’s Encanto opened with $40.56m #39 and 2017’s Coco $72.9m #13.
Strange World is expected to lose up to $147m, many have questioned the decision by Disney to give Strange World a theatrical release but then Hocus Pocus 2 and Disenchanted both went to Disney+. Hocus Pocus 2 broke the Disney+ streaming record but would it have been a similar success if it had a theatrical release as the original 1993 film disappointed, taking in $44.34m. While Enchanted was an enormous success in 2007 taking $127.8m and $340.5m worldwide, there had been plans for a theatrical sequel for many years.
Strange World tested badly in August, but Disney still believed they should give it a theatrical release as it could have done a lot of harm to Disney animation. Had it gone straight to streaming after Pixar’s original film Soul, Luca, Turning Red and Disney’s Raya and the Last Dragon all went to Disney+ received critical acclaim but then gave Lightyear theatrical release receiving mixed reviews and underwhelmed at the BO.
Opened with $9.2m from 42 territories and $27.8m worldwide; The film wasn’t released in over 20 territories due to LGBTQ+ scenes Disney refused to cut.
- Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery – Netflix
Opened $9.2m from 696 screens ($13.28m from 5 days); received positive reviews (93% Rotten Tomatoes)
Playing in cinemas for a week ahead of its Netflix release in a month. The first film opened over Thanksgiving 2019 with $26.76m taking $165.36m and $312.89 worldwide. In March 2021 acquired rights for two Knives Out sequels for $450m. MRC and Lionsgate only had rights for one film, so producers were in a great position to negotiate sequel rights. The acquisition by Netflix was similar to the acquisition of Ronald Dahl Company a few months later for $500m as it adds existing IPs to their library of mostly original content.
In October major global exhibitors agreed to show the film for a week exclusively in cinemas a month before being released on Netflix, previously independent exhibitors would book Netflix films, but major exhibitors refused as they demanded films stick to the antiquated theatrical window.
- Devotion – Sony Pictures
Opened $5.9m ($9m over 5 days); received positive reviews (80% Rotten Tomatoes) and A- CinemaScore
Took $615k from Tuesday previews
Glen Powell follows up his role as a pilot in Top Gun Maverick in the biographical war film based on the 2015 book Devotion: An Epic Story of Heroism, Friendship, and Sacrifice. The film received its world premiere at the Toronto Film Festival.
Sony acquired US rights in December 2021 with STX acquiring international rights.
- The Menu – Searchlight Pictures
Dropped 39% taking $5.47m ($7.61m over 5 days) and $18.94m
Holding similar to 2019’s Ready or Not dropped 26.2% by $5.91m and $20.38m taking $28.71m
Box office performance of Searchlight Pictures films since Disney acquired the studio has been underwhelming releasing 13 films with The French Despatch their biggest film taking $16.12m showing these films aren’t finding a wider audience. This is highlighted by The Banshees of Inisherin taking $6.3m as it performs similarly to In Bruges ($7.8m) rather than Three Billboards ($54.51m) as the notable change has been the films have expanded from platform release much quicker. This highlights Disney’s Achilles heel for the last decade as they have struggled with original films.
Took $5.4m from 41 territories $14.8m total and $33.5m worldwide
- The Fabelmans – Universal Pictures
Up 2,420% in the third second weekend taking $2.26m #7 ($3.1m 5 days) added 634 screens to 638 and $3.46m
Performing similarly to Barry Levinson’s autobiographical 1990 film Avalon which took $504,619 after two weeks on platform release from 7 screens before expanding into 630 screens in the third weekend taking $2.81m of $15.74m. But of course, the average ticket price in 1990 was $4.22m now it’s $9.38 125% more so impossible to compare the two.
Despite being a film directed by Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans can’t be compared with those historical dramas, being a very personal coming-of-age drama, unlike The Post, Lincoln and Schindler’s List. It’s also going to be released on VOD in December so as many other films targetting older audiences despite receiving critical acclaim will struggle to find a wider audience.
Steven Spielberg has talked about the evils of HBO Max and Warner Bros’ decision to release their 2021 films on HBO same time as a theatrical release but if audiences aren’t going to see these films in the same numbers, they did a decade ago in cinemas then studios must give them alternative release to try to get them to be seen by as wide an audience as they deserve to be seen.
- Bones And All – MGM
Expanded into 2,722 screens taking $2.25m ($3.61m 5 days) and $3.76m
The soft BO performance adult dramas Bones and All, Devotion and The Fabelmans struggling to find a wider audience show Netflix’s limited exclusive theatrical release is the best bad idea studios have now as audiences aren’t going to see them as they used to do decade ago.
Thanksgiving used to be a strong weekend to open adult dramas that would play into the new year but now these films will be released on VOD by Christmas.
Took $2.1m from 28 territories and $5.8m worldwide
UK Box Office Top 10
UK Box Office Preview
Roald Dahl’s Matilda The Musical should hold well in its second weekend due to strong word of mouth likely to drop 20%-30% taking £2.6m-£3.3m. Matilda is likely to stay #1 until Avatar The Way of Water opens on December 16th.
Black Panther Wakanda Forever will likely drop about 50% again in its fourth weekend taking £1.2m-£1.6m. Will likely see another big drop off on Saturday due to England’s second round World Cup match as was the case with the big drop last Friday in its third weekend.
After the last two weeks that have had four wide releases opening in the top 10 this weekend will likely see only one new entry the Christmas action-comedy Violent Night (a cross between Home Alone and Die Hard. Other Christmas action films include Die Hard (opened £612,125); Lethal Weapon (£444,098); Ronin (£875,545); RED (£1,662,472); The Long Kiss Goodnight (£1,195,105); Kiss Kiss Bang Bang (£458,826) and Bad Santa (£474,450); We’re No Angels (£46,354 from 26 screens); Trapped in Paradise (£96,814 #10 from 102 screens); The Last Boy Scout (£474,723).
Violent Night produced by David Leitch (John Wick, Atomic Blonde, Deadpool 2 and Bullet Train) and the trailer is exactly what you expect. So likely to open similar to 2016’s Bad Santa 2 £799,156 #4 from 423 screens taking £1,961,362.
Strange World is likely to drop 40%-45% (20-25% not including previews) taking £450k-£550k
While She Said, The Menu, Bones and All are all likely to drop 40%-50%
Opening in two weeks
- Avatar: The Way of Water – Disney
Epic science fiction sequel to 2009’s Avatar starring Sam Worthington, Zoe Saldaña, Stephen Lang, Joel David Moore, Giovanni Ribisi, Sigourney Weaver and Kate Winslet and directed by James Cameron.
The title of the sequel was announced at CinemaCon where the first teaser trailer was first shown, attached to Doctor Strange 2 in May and released online on May 9th viewed 148.5m times in its first 24 hours (23m in China). An edited version of the trailer was released with Lightyear (removing the gun sequences). It received a mixed reception, while it looked stunning it felt more like a computer game than a film, this was the issue with previous films released in HFR.
8 minutes of 3D footage was shown at D23 Expo in September, with more footage screened with the Avatar re-release in September, and the trailer was released on November 2nd.
20th Century Fox feared Avatar would underperform so they released Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel the following week. Avatar opened #1 in week 1 (£8,509,050 only 21% was from 2D), lost #1 in its second weekend with The Squeakquel (playing to younger family audience) while Avatar dropped 55% taking £3,828,123. Few would have imagined that Avatar would take £4m+ for the next 8 weeks returning to #1 for 8 of the next 9 weeks and go on to take £93,442,625 (£140m inflated).
Would expect Avatar: The Way of Water to open with more than double Avatar’s opening due to 50%+ ticket inflation, the growth of IMAX screens in the UK from (9 in 2009) to 63 today (BFI IMAX had 99% capacity) along with 4DX, ScreenX, and PLF. What will be interesting to see is if audiences embrace 3D as much as they did with the first film.
Advance bookings opened for Avatar: The Way of Water this week and it was interesting to read that James Cameron described it as “the worst business case in movie history.” As the industry gets caught up in the hype when seeing films like Black Panther Wakanda Forever opening with $181m in the US and taking $287m after 10 days in the US and $550m worldwide. As these films have massive budgets attached to Wakanda Forever $250m+ and then the same again on marketing it will need to take over $1bn globally.
James Cameron admitted Avatar: The Way of Water will need to be the 4th/5th film worldwide to break even (currently Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens $2.07bn and Avengers: Infinity War $2.05bn).
He could be saying this for effect as he knows saying something so outrageous (even though it’s true) he will get huge media coverage (which he did) he also previously said that the Avatar film series could end after the third film and not the fifth as originally planned in 2017. As James Cameron in “The Greatest Showman” talks so passionately about the films he makes and audiences, he has only directed 9 films since The Terminator in 1984 (including 2 IMAX films) and they have taken almost $2bn in the US and $6.4bn worldwide (inflation inflated those would be more than double as it’s 25 years ago since Titanic opened taking $2.2bn worldwide which would be about $6bn inflated alone).
James Cameron said in 2006 if Avatar was successful, he wanted to make two sequels (set for 2014 and 2015 releases), but he chooses to develop new technologies before making the sequels as he did develop the new technology to make the original film. Filming of Avatar 2 finally started in August 2017 with a budget of $1bn for 4 sequels.
At that time the sequels were vital to the studio, but everything changed a few months later when Disney announced they would acquire the studio (in December 2017). While Avatar might have been the biggest film globally Disney was far more interested in MCU and Star Wars, Avatar was only interested in Disney after Pandora: The World of Avatar opened at Disney World Florida in May 2017.
For Disney films are often just software for the hardware (theme park and merchandise) so as with Star Wars films the addition of more Avatar films would mean that Pandora would continue to attract people to its parks and sell merchandise for decades to come as Yogurt said in Spaceballs “Merchandising is where the real money from the movie is made.” Disney’s films took $2.9bn globally in 2021 but in comparison made $56.2bn on sales of licensed merchandise (up from $54bn in 2020) and is the world’s biggest licensor. In comparison, Warner Bros are 4th with $15bn, Hasbro 6th at $8.4bn (with Peppa Pig) Universal 7th at $8.3bn and Paramount 10th at $6bn.
This is probably why 20th Century Fox never acquired Lucasfilm, as they must have had the opportunity to do so between making the first Star Wars film in 1977 and before Disney acquired Lucasfilm in 2012 and similarly acquired Marvel in 2009 as Disney are the only studio who could fully exploit merchandising with their IPs.
Had 20th Century Fox made released Avatar sequels it would have been vital for them to match the BO of the original film but as Disney are it doesn’t need to take as much, of course, there will be lots of analysis comparing the performance of the two films, but the sequels will help to generate billions of licensed merchandises over the next decade.
Of course, it’s a different story for cinemas as exhibitors will be desperate for Avatar: The Way of Water to match the BO of the original, but 12 years on with 50%+ ticket inflation and the huge increase in IMAX screens globally, the massive hype and little competition it should do?
While the question is, the four sequels cost $1bn to make, did they cost Disney that much to be made the sequels were greenlit before 20th Century Fox was acquired wouldn’t they have been paid by Fox before Disney acquired the studio?
If Avatar 2 needs to take $2bn+ to break even, then Fast X with a budget of a third more will need to take even more. Early tracking for Avatar 2 is between $ 150m-$175m m used to be a Disney film that would open $20m+ above tracking but recently they are opening as tracking as Wakanda Forever. The question for Avatar 2 is the running time factored into tracking as is the impact on the World Cup Final match at 3 pm (GMT) Sunday, December 18th with a global audience of 1.2bn
If Avatar 2 needs to take $2bn to break even this will surely have partly to do with James Cameron’s first dollar gross deal. He made $350m+ from Avatar and $97m from Titanic, according to Deadline, had a ‘significant gross percentage’ for those films, this will surely be much more for Avatar sequels.
Surely James Cameron’s comments are no surprise with a film budgeted at $250m+ and globally marketing probably more as the industry gets caught up in the hype with these $150m+ openings but they must be tearing the hair out of studio accountants trying to see how these films can be profitable. James Cameron is on a first-dollar gross deal for Avatar sequels (he made $350m+ for Avatar and $97m+ for Titanic according to Deadline).
Avatar 2 early tracking is $150m-175m more than twice as much as Avatar ($77m) but the question for the sequel (as with all sequels) is not how big it opens but how big it drops the second weekend as Avatar only dropped 1.8% Christmas weekend while The Force Awakens dropped 40%; Rogue One 59%: Aquaman 23%; Rise of Skywalker 59%; No Way Home 57%.
If Avatar 2 is to match the BO of the first film it needs to have similar legs playing through to February but if The Force Awakens couldn’t do so it’s going to be much harder for Avatar 2 as the lengthy running time will impact multiple viewings, especially during weekdays (have seen this with Wakanda Forever).
The positive for Avatar 2 is it opens in many more IMAX screens than the first film, but as exhibitors are playing it in more 3D screens than 2D much will depend on cinemagoers’ interest in seeing it in 3D and wearing the glasses for over 3 hours. Originally in 2017, James Cameron had planned glassless 3D for Avatar sequels.
In 2009 Avatar had much more competition as few expected Avatar to be the massive success it was so Alvin and the Chipmunks 2 and Sherlock Holmes opened the week after, both opening strongly with £5.34m and £3.1m. In its third weekend increased by 55% taking £5,940,479 but other holdovers Sherlock Holmes (£3,439,616 up 12%; Alvin And The Chipmunks II £2,457,029 up 83% (not including previews); Nine (£780,255), St. Trinian’s 2 £671,480 up 54% with new release Did You Hear About The Morgan’s opening with £1,155,060.
The question is how many weeks Avatar will: The Way of Water stay at #1 as Empire of Light (January 9th 7-day opening) and Babylon (January 20th) are the only two films that could open #1 with Puss In Boots: The Last Wish (February 3rd)