- Black Adam – £2,006,821 – £17,061,575
Down 42.5% in the third weekend; Took £514k (down 53.3%) Friday
Took £514k (25.6%) Friday; £862k (43%) Saturday and £627k (31.3%) Sunday
6th biggest DC Extended Universe film between Man of Steel and Wonder Woman
Third-weekend drop similar to Wonder Woman (-46.3%); Joker (-43.8%) and Suicide Squad (-39.9%)
55th biggest comic-book film in the UK between Iron Man and Batman Begins (close to X-Men: Apocalypse, Venom 2, X-Men Origins: Wolverine and Eternals) 72nd biggest inflation inflated between Blade 2 and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (2014) (close to Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer, Dick Tracey, The Hulk and The Wolverine).
354th biggest film between Godzilla (2014) and Planet of the Apes (close to The Mask, The Matrix, Mad Max: Fury Road and F9) and 651st biggest inflation inflated between Memphis Belle and Three Billboards (close to Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon, In the Line of Fire, Tomb of the Dragon Emperor and Judge Dredd).
Impossible to compare Black Adam’s third weekend to recent DC films Birds of Prey (dropped 54.6% £772,416), likewise, compare it with Joker (dropped 43.8% £5,489,716) The Batman (dropped 54.8% £3,351,288) instead of Wonder Woman (dropped 46.3% £1,868,607); Aquaman (dropped 2.6% £2,445,108); Shazam! (dropped 54.7% £979,787).
Dwyane Johnson and Jaume Collet-Serra recently worked together on 2021’s Jungle Cruise (dropped 57% £847,031 #4 and £8,476,137 67.8% of £12,487,739) There were reports the first test screening of Black Adam assessed as low as Batgirl which was scrapped due to its low score and also similar to Shazam! Fury of the Gods.
Selected Dwayne Johnson’s third weekend (not including Fast & Furious or Jumanji)
2019’s Hobbs & Shaw dropped 51% £1,435,377 #3 and £16,259,367 79.5% of £20,448,914
2018’s Rampage dropped 48% £735,856 #4 and £7,816,910 89.9% of £8,695,722
2016’s Central Intelligence dropped 43% £766,990 #8 and £7,251,786 85.7% of £8,459,045
2015’s San Andreas dropped 53% £844,397 #3 and £9,915,841 87.6% of £11,316,171
Dwayne Johnson Black Adam character is similar to The Scorpion King in 2001’s The Mummy Returns (took £20,390,060 (£39,795,093 inflated) and spinoff The Scorpion King in 2002 (dropped 48% £545,406 #4 and £4,091,139 82.7% of £4,944,146 (£9,649,444 inflated).
The combination of comic-book movie and Dwyane Johnson film should have attracted a wider demographic, but the problem is the audience demographic for both is the same
Black Adam was originally rated an R and had to reduce the number of characters Black Adam killed in the film from 10 to 5 to get it a PG-13 having to lose several great moments according to producers get the lower rating. This has been noticeable in the film feeling like it needs to be a higher certificate but the studio demanded a PG-13 (12A) and won’t be the film fans want it to be.
- 2.Lyle, Lyle Crocodile – £979,484 – £10,811,871
Down 34.9% in its fourth weekend
Took £178k (18.2%) Friday; £422k (43.2%) Saturday and £376k (38.5%) Sunday
49th biggest family film between Flubber and Charlotte’s Web (close to Hook, Home Alone, The Spiderwick Chronicles and Matilda) and 80th biggest family film inflated between Free Willy and Clifford The Big Red Dog (close to Big, Herbie: Fully Loaded, Beverly Hills Chihuahua and The Parent Trap).
Other live-action animated CGI family fourth weekend include
2004’s Garfield dropped 21% £526,525 and £6,679,456 76.2% of £8,762,150 (£15,767,967)
1995’s Casper dropped 27.9% £749,518 and £9,403,262 58.9% of £15,965,083 (£39,691,653)
1998’s Doctor Dolittle dropped 6% £1,315,113 and £13,044,403 65.7% of £19,854,598 (£39,807,730)
2000’s Stuart Little dropped 26% £771,114 and £10,559,124 59.2% of £17,828,403 (£32,739,431)
2002’s Scooby-Doo dropped 9% £1,162,816 and £15,942,951 74.7% of £21,333,007 (£41,635,434)
2007’s Alvin and the Chipmunks dropped 28% £791,193 and £7,140,299 64.4% of £11,080,538 (£17,728,861)
2007’s Charlotte’s Web down 46% £706,633 and £9,856,840 91.8% of £10,738,495 (£17,181,592)
2011’s Yogi Bear down 70% £435,564 and £8,217,352 95.3% of £8,625,654 (£11,500,872)
2014’s Paddington dropped 14% £2,513,675 and £18,120,879 47.8% of £37,916,343
2018’s Peter Rabbit dropped 44% £3,152,269 and £32,223,317 78.4% of £41,100,000
2021’s Clifford the Big Red Dog up 122% £778,802 (Christmas) and £5,982,503 59.5% of £10,052,296
1988’s Who Framed Roger Rabbit dropped 18% £739,858 and £8,335,142 53.4% of £15,612,005 (£54,845,652)
1,367th biggest between Memphis Belle and The Princess Diaries (close to Tomorrowland – A World Beyond, The Scorpion King, Return of the Jedi (R97) and Corpse Bride) and 1,876th biggest inflation inflated between Power Rangers and Defiance (close to Ron’s Gone Wrong, Galaxy Quest, Uncle Buck and Teen Wolf Too).
Sony has had success opening children’s films in Sept/Oct over recent years including Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs dropped 11.4% £1,402,854 and £3,436,639 58.4% of £5,881,661; Hotel Transylvania dropped 41% £1,023,722 and £3,375,280 43.7% of £7,722,310 and Goosebumps dropped 60.1% £1,072,028 and £4,180,487 48.7% of £8,575,763.
Lyle, Lyle Crocodile is the only family film on release until Disney’s Strange World and Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical open in two weeks.
- 3. The Banshees of Inisherin – £976,323 – £6,278,440
Down 23.1% in its third weekend
Took £290k (29.9%) Friday; £386k (39.8%) Saturday; £294k (30.3%) Sunday
2008’s In Bruges dropped 27% in third w/e #7 £296,972 from 233 screens and £4,065,217; dropped 65% in fourth w/e #8 £103,252 and £4,326,430; took £2.2m from 6 weeks from Ireland ahead of UK release from about 60 screens).
2012’s Seven Psychopaths dropped 63% taking £167,952 and £2,646,054 of £3,141,163
2018’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri dropped 23% third w/e £1,249,691 from 448 screens #7 and £7,605,591 staying in the top 10 for 7 weeks; played in the top 15 for 11 weeks until the end of March taking £143,670 #14 in 11th w/e from 181 screens £14,693,527 96.4% of £15,238,741.
1,104th biggest film between Jeepers Creepers and Taken (close to Phone Booth, No Country for Old Men, Widows and BlacKkKlansman) and 1,655th biggest inflation inflated between Copycat and Reign Of Fire (close to Spotlight, Changeling, Hidden Figures and Mississippi Burning).i
After the success of Three Billboards opening in January ahead of award success, it was surprising The Banshees of Inisherin didn’t have a similar release, as January opening is far more lucrative with BAFTA and Oscar nominations and award contenders having longer legs often playing through till March. By opening in October, it limits its chances of a long cinema release.
As Three Billboards the film had its UK premiere at the London Film Festival after premiering at the Venice International Film Festival last month receiving critical acclaim praising Colin Farrell’s performance and Martin McDonagh’s script seen as a major Oscar contender.
The Banshees Of Inisherin is one of the three films made by Searchlight Pictures seen as award contenders this year with The Menu opening in November directed by Mark Mylod and Empire of Light in December directed by Sam Mendes. All three films were launched at film festivals last month.
- 4. Living – £670,206 – NE
Included £104,017 (15.6%) from previews
Took £141k (21.2%) Friday; £229k (34.4%) Saturday and £191k (28.7%) Sunday
Had similar openings to The Reader, Jackie, In Bruges and My Cousin Rachel
47th biggest 2022 opening between Everything Everywhere All at Once and Fisherman’s Friends 2 (close to Operation Mincemeat, Mrs Harris Goes To Paris, Amsterdam and Nightmare Alley).
Similar films include
2004’s Something’s Gotta Give opened £1,215,563 taking £6,887,343
2008’s The Bucket List opened £602,248 #7 taking £1,778,129
2012’s Seeking a Friend for the End of the World opened £357,200 #4 taking £815,346
2014’s Last Vegas opened £1,811,695 taking £6,664,359
1991’s The Awakenings opened £387,805 (£1,034,147 inflated) taking £3,010,484 (£8,027,957 inflated)
1993’s Scent of a Woman opened £394,680 (£993,462 inflated) taking £3,514,488 (£8,846,437 inflated)
Recent adult dramas include
Operation Mincemeat opened £895,008 taking £5,191,263
The Duke opened £992,659 taking £5,047,071
Mrs Harris Goes To Paris opened £807,817 taking £4,284,557
Received 9 BIFA nominations on Friday
As with so many other films targetting older audiences recently Living will have its daily screenings cut back from its opening weekend despite its target demographic not going to rush out to see it over opening weekend and playing to a very different audience than Black Panther Wakanda Forever.
- 5. One Piece Film: Red – £559,623 – NE
Took £214k (38.2%) Friday; £194k (34.7%) Saturday and £152k (27.1%) Sunday
2022’s Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero opened £663,290 taking $38.11m
Jujutsu Kaisen 0 opened with £825,529 in March while 2003’s Spirited Away took £919,307 after opening #13 with £152,504 from 51 screens (didn’t expand further).
2021’s My Hero Academia: World Heroes Mission opened £218,956 #12 from 261 screens
2021’s Demon Slayer The Movie opened (£693,081 including £389,220 from previews) #4 from 336 screens (10 days after cinemas reopened) taking £1,357,821.
As with Paw Patrol films over recent years with 2015’s Dragon Ball Z: Resurrection ‘F’ released by National Amusements opening #11 taking £151,087 from 74 screens and National Amusements released several Anime films in 2017; 2019’s Dragon Ball Super: Broly opened #7 with £851,508 from 188 screens.
2020’s re-release of Akira opened #3 with £201,124 from 109 screens only weeks after UK cinemas reopened after the first lockdown, its re-release had been planned to have a 300+ opening but Cineworld/Picturehouse closed their 127 cinemas days before it was to open.
While National Amusements released Belle in February 2020 opened #9 with £152,287 from 147 screens.
Film News
As often happens when a major release opens there’s a soft weekend before with no major releases despite 36 films opening.
Cinema needs to be more than the top 20 films when there will probably be over 900 releases this year. As mass audiences go from one comic-book movie (Black Adam) to the next (Black Panther Wakanda Forever) the latter taking more in its opening weekend than half of the films released this year. The industry needs to get audiences to see a wider range of films, those who have subscription cinemas (Cineworld Unlimited) and (Odeon Limitless) do with many of them seeing 100+ films a year but the vast majority of cinemagoing are seeing two or three films a year Spider-Man: No Way Home, Top Gun: Maverick and Avatar: The Way of Water. The problem is industry doesn’t seem to care about increasing admissions anymore as they did 20 years ago as it’s been about BO office growth via ticket inflation since.
What I never understand is exhibitors are in the popcorn business not the film business so the more tickets they sell the more popcorn they are likely to sell. Costco sells their petrol about 20p cheaper and there are always queues around the block as people go there for the cheap petrol and then spend hundreds instore on other items. This is similar to why supermarkets sell petrol cheaper as they use it to get customers through the door, but the problem is if the door entry price is £15+ many won’t go through the door or won’t go as often.
Guy Hands famously told Odeon bosses when he brought the cinema chain, they weren’t in the cinema business but the popcorn-selling business. Cineworld sold vastly more popcorn than normal Saturday on Cineworld Day and probably all exhibitors sold much more popcorn on National Cinema Day in September.
The Bodyguard was the latest film to be re-released this weekend celebrating its 30th anniversary, it was a massive hit in 1992 opening with £2,348,330 having very long legs taking £1m+ for 5 or weekends (9 inflation inflated) taking £17,001,069 (£48,090,251 inflated) opened with £24,074 #31 from 97 screens
This compares to Jaws (£524,233) or E.T. (40th Anniversary) £438,715 (both boosted by IMAX screens) due to audiences not wanting to pay full price for a film they can watch at home. If exhibitors have dynamic pricing, going up for tentpoles, they also need to go down for other films, the only problem with that is they just won’t book them or drop them after a week.
UK box office in detail
This weekend’s top 10 box office took £6,497,740 down 34.9% from last weekend’s £9,985,347: 804,176 admissions down 31.9% from 1,180,817
914th biggest top 10 of the last 21 years (out of 1,073) between 06 June 2003 #1 The Matrix Reloaded (38.2% of top 10) and 21 April 2006 #1 Ice Age II £1,886,277 (29.1% of top 10) and 1,020th biggest inflation inflated between 23 July 2021 #1 Black Widow£1,410,288 (23.2% of top 10) and 12 August 2022 #1 Nope £1,859,337 (28.7% of top 10).
Top 3 took £3,962,628 61% of the top 10; Black Adam 30.9% (£2,006,821); Lyle, Lyle Crocodile 15.1% (£979,484); The Banshees Of Inisherin 12.5% (£976,323);
Down 46.1% from 2021 (£12,060,491); Eternals (£5,456,577); Spencer (£492,643); The Card Counter (£48,989); Willy Wonka And The Chocolate Factory (Re: 2021) (£12,303); #1 Eternals £5,456,577 1st week 642 screens (45.2% of top 10)
2020 COVID Second Lockdown
Down 46.2% 2019 (£12,078,831); Stephen King’s Doctor Sleep (£1,460,643); Sorry We Missed You (£364,849); #1 Joker £2,446,199 29.4% drop (20.2% of top 10) 5th weekend #1
Down 54.9% 2018: (£14,405,189); The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (£1,733,235); Slaughterhouse Rulez (£397,792); Peterloo (£348,697); Juliet, Naked (£51,813); #1 Bohemian Rhapsody £5,750,267 2nd week 681 screens 40% drop (39.9% of top 10)
Down 55.1% 2017: (£14,453,653); Murder on the Orient Express (£4,985,600); A Bad Moms Christmas (£1,781,738); The Killing of a Sacred Deer (£286,448); The Son of Bigfoot (£23,213); The Silence of the Lambs (Re: 2017) (£8,383); #1 Murder on the Orient Express £4,985,600 1st week 618 screens 1st week 611 screens (34.5% of the top 10)
Down 43.1% 2016: (£11,430,004); The Accountant (£1,623,866); A Street Cat Named Bob (£985,557); Nocturnal Animals (£755,427); The Light Between Oceans (£733,421); #1 Doctor Strange £3,445,203 2nd week 599 screens 63% drop (30.1% of the top 10)
Down 63.6% 2015; (£17,844,077); Brooklyn (£1,041,278); Burnt (£445,777); Scout’s Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse (£297,263); Kill Your Friends (£102,221); #1 SPECTRE £13,145,138 2nd week 660 screens 68% drop (73.6% of top 10)
Down 41.3% 2014: (£11,071,565); Interstellar (£5,378,220); Say When (£93,259); The Skeleton Twins (£19,204); November Man (£4,980); #1 Interstellar £5,378,220 1st week 574 screens (48.5% of top 10)
Down 54.7% 2013: (£14,343,283); Gravity (£6,238,375); #1 Gravity £6,238,375 1st week 539 screens (43.5% of top 10)
Down 71.7% 2012 (£22,991,689); Silent Hill: Revelation 3D (£1,043,068); Fun Size (£410,028); Rust and Bone (£252,099); The Shining (Re: 2012) (£132,470); The Master (£65,701); For a Good Time, Call… (£43,882); #1 Skyfall £16,107,687 2nd week 593 screens 20% drop (70.1% of top 10)
Down 31.4% 2011 (£9,478,695); In Time (£1,882,365); Tower Heist (£1,451,029); Machine Gun Preacher (£331,578); Straw Dogs (£41,912); Snow Flower and the Secret Fan (£4,895); #1 The Adventures of Tintin: Secret of the Unicorn £2,199,171 2nd week 510 screens 67% drop (23.2% of top 10)
Down 30.1% 2010: (£9,291,445); Due Date (£2,346,089); 3D Jackass (£1,696,909); Let Me In (£488,402); Another Year (£355,626); #1 Due Date £2,346,089 1st week 449 screens (25.2% of top 10)
Down 27.7% 2009; (£8,993,624); A Christmas Carol (£1,917,539); The Men Who Stare at Goats (£1,211,791); The Fourth Kind (£851,476); Bright Star (£207,881); #1 A Christmas Carol £1,917,539 1st week 446 screens (21.3% of top 10)
Down 52.8% 2008; (£13,780,120); Pride and Glory (£396,691); W (£367,512); Easy Virtue (£341,099); #1 Quantum of Solace £9,221,744 2nd week 541 screens 40% drop (66.9% of top 10)
Down 19.7% 2007: (£8,089,452); 30 Days of Night (£1,532,976); Elizabeth: The Golden Age (£1,348,440); Death at a Funeral (£357,212); The Lookout (£33,833); Brothers Solomon (£21,231); Man of the Year (£2,391); #1 Ratatouille £3,056,938 4th week 498 screens 57% drop (19.2% of top 10)
Down 39.5% 2006; (£10,744,444); Borat (£6,242,344); Sixty-Six (£292,295); Little Children (£158,012); #1 Borat £6,242,344 1st week 428 screens (58.1% of top 10)
Down 18.5% 2005 (£7,969,627); The Brothers Grimm (£919,713); Elizabethtown (£668,604); Murderball (£14,335); #1 Nanny McPhee £1,656,113 3rd week 1st #1 421 screens 46% drop (20.7% of top 10)
Up 9.7% from 2004 (£5,920,822); The Grudge (£2,261,710); Bad Santa (£474,450); Birth (£421,758); Look At Me (£88,161); #1 The Grudge £2,261,710 1st week 362 screens (38.2% of top 10)
Down 54.1% from 2003 (£14,166,002); The Matrix Revolutions (£8,712,350); Seabiscuit (expansion) (£767,371); #1 The Matrix Revolutions £8,712,350 1st week 467 screens (61.5% of top 10)
Up 49.1% 2002 (£4,357,114); Rabbit Proof Fence (£221,758); Orange County (£167,051); #1 28 Days Later £1,073,042 2nd week 320 screens 28% drop (24.6% of top 10)
Down 8.3% 2001 (£7,083,187); The Others (£2,259,538); The Animal (£345,651); #1 The Others £2,259,538 1st week 385 screens (31.9% of top 10);
Next weekend 2021 (£8,515,063); Mothering Sunday (£156,940); Cry Macho (£72,131); West Side Story (1961) (60th Anniversary) (£8,725); #1 Eternals £2,918,585 2nd week 649 screens 47% drop (34.3% of top 10)
US Box Office
- Black Adam – Warner Bros
Dropped 33% in the third weekend $18.27m and $137.11m
It’s the third film this year to stay #1 for three weeks, this will be repeated by Black Panther Wakanda Forever in a month.
Had the biggest 3rd-weekend action drop this year less than -42% Top Gun: Maverick; -45% The Batman; -47% Sonic The Hedgehog 2; -48% Doctor Strange 2; -52% Uncharted; -52% Thor 4; -55% Jurassic World Dominion.
That was more due to it being a dead weekend for major new releases with Black Panther Wakanda Forever opening next weekend rather than Black Adam overperforming.
199th biggest third weekend between Liar Liar and The Fugitive (close to Wreck-It Ralph, World War Z, Venom and Logan).
462nd biggest film between Click and The Green Mile; 910th biggest inflation inflated between Blade and Jackass 3D; 10th biggest 2022 film between Uncharted and Nope; 66th biggest comic-book movie between Shazam! and The Incredible Hulk; 79th biggest Warner Bros film between The Conjuring and The Green Mile.
Third weekend
2019’s Shazam! dropped 32.7% $16.46m and $120.43m of $140.48m and $366.08m WW
2018’s Aquaman dropped 40.5% by $31m and $260.02m of $335.1m and $1.138bn WW
Similar to the third weekend of 2019’sHobbs & Shaw $14.17m down 43.9% and $133.78m of $173.95m and $759.05m WW
Took $25.4m from 76 territories and $182.3m and $319.7m worldwide; UK ($19.3m); Mexico ($12.7m); France ($12.4m); Brazil ($12.2m), and Australia ($10m).
Has taken $21m worldwide from IMAX including $10.1m internationally
477th biggest film worldwide between Lethal Weapon 3 and Journey 2: The Mysterious Island; 13th biggest 2022 worldwide between Uncharted and Elvis; 66th biggest comic-book film between Fantastic Four and Superman; 110th biggest Warner Bros film worldwide between Lethal Weapon 3 and Journey 2: The Mysterious Island.
- One Piece Film: Red – Crunchyroll
Opened $9.4m; received positive reviews (95% Rotten Tomatoes) and A CinemaScore
Took $1.6m from Thursday previews; Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero took $4m and Jujutsu Kaisen 0 took $2.88m.
Males had 76% of Friday’s audience and 75% were between 18-34 so no surprise opening was front-loaded.
Over the last 18 months, four Manga animation films have opened in the US all have opened strongly but have been very front-loaded, these films open in PLF, IMAX, Dolby and 4DX screens.
2022’s Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero opened $21.12m taking $38.11m
2022’s Jujutsu Kaisen 0 opened $18m taking $34.54m
2021’s My Hero Academia: World Heroes Mission opened $6.25m taking $12.27m
2021’s Demon Slayer The Movie opened $21.23m taking $49.5m
- Ticket To Paradise – Universal Pictures
Dropped 13% in the third weekend $8.54m and $46.77m
828th biggest 3rd weekend between He’s Just Not That Into You and 27 Dresses (close to The Wedding Singer, Love Actually, While You Were Sleeping and American Wedding).
1,926th biggest film between The Spy Who Loved Me and Boogeyman; 2,890th biggest inflation inflated between Raising Cain and The Air Up There; 28th biggest 2022 film between jackass forever and Death on the Nile; 93rd biggest rom-com between How to be Single and One Fine Day; 261st biggest Universal Pictures film between The River Wild and Fletch.
Rom-coms have struggled at the box office over the last decade as they were 32 years ago when they were at their peak when Julia Roberts starred in Pretty Woman.
Third weekends
Selective George Clooney films
1996’s One Fine Day was down 22.5% $6.21m and $32.24m of $46.15m and $97.52m WW; disappointed in the US opening the week after Jerry Maguire in December 1996
2003’s Intolerable Cruelty dropped 44.3% by $3.62m and $28.25m of $35.32m and $120.8m WW
2009’s Up In The Air dropped 33.2% by $7.15m and $54.8m of $83.82m and $166.84m WW
1998’s Out of Sight dropped 42% by $3.81m and $29.98m of $37.56m and $77.74m WW
Selective Julia Roberts films
1990’s Pretty Woman is down 9.6% by $11.27m and $44.29m of $178.4m; $463.4m WW
1997’s My Best Friend’s Wedding dropped 28% $10.81m and $69.28m of $127.12m; $299.28m WW
1999’s Runaway Bride dropped 33.8% by $13.75m and $97.94m of $152.25m; $309.46m WW
2001’s America’s Sweethearts dropped 47.8% by $8.03m and $74.69m of $93.6m; $138.3m WW
George Clooney and Julia Roberts previously worked together on 2001’s Ocean’s Eleven 2002’s Confessions of a Dangerous Mind (took $16m) 2004’s Ocean’s Twelve and 2016’s Money Monster dropped 38.3% $4.32m and $33.98m of $ 41.01m; $93.28m WW
Producers of the film described it as a kind of sequel to 1990s rom-coms like Notting Hill (dropped 25% $11.25m and $67.51m of $116.08m and $363.88m WW) and 1994’s Four Wedding and a Funeral up 5.2% $4.38m (after 4 weeks platform) and $18.42m 94m of $52.7m
Took $73m internationally over five weeks ahead of the US and was released on VOD in the UK last week.
Took $2.8m from 78 territories $90.5m total (taking more than both The Lost City and House of Gucci internationally) and $137.2m; 1,288th biggest worldwide between The Jungle Book 2 and The Three Musketeers; 31st biggest 2022 between RRR and Scream; 56th biggest rom-com between Trainwreck and Nine Months; 170th biggest Universal Pictures film between American Graffiti and The Invisible Man.
- Smile – Paramount Pictures
Dropped 27% in the sixth weekend taking $3.98m and $99.09m
481st biggest 6th weekend between Jungle Cruise and Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel (close to Planes, Trains & Automobiles, Romancing the Stone, The Perfect Storm and Dunkirk).
798th biggest inflation inflated between Hercules and Olympus Has Fallen; 15th biggest 2022 between Bullet Train and The Bad Guys; 28th biggest horror between Sleepy Hollow and The Others; 110th biggest Paramount Pictures film between The Rugrats Movie and Heaven Can Wait.
Paramount will surely be announcing a sequel very soon for release next year.
Other similar horror sixth weekends
2022’s Barbarian dropped 37.4% $1.37m and $38.92m of $36.54m
2022’s The Black Phone dropped 28.8% taking $2.49m and $83.11m out of $89.88m; $159.56m worldwide
2002’s The Ring dropped 29.1% by $7.56m and $110.83m of $129.12m; $259.34m WW
1996’s Scream dropped 45% by $4.04m and $64.59m of $103.04m
2004’s The Grudge dropped 48.8% by $1.95m and $107.77m of $110.35m; $187.28m WW
2020’s The Invisible Man took $70.41m after 3 weeks COVID lockdown week 4
Took $5.1m (down 35%) from 62 territories $103.8m total and $202.9m worldwide
940th biggest worldwide between The Horse Whisperer and Knowing; 21st biggest 2022 film between DC League of Super-Pets and The Lost City; 36th biggest horror between The Grudge and Alien; 103rd biggest Paramount Pictures film between Tropic Thunder and The Lost City.
- Lyle, Lyle Crocodile – Sony Pictures
Up 23% in the fifth weekend $3.36m and $36.57m
2,439th biggest films between Accepted and Carlito’s Way; 3,414th biggest inflation inflated between The Commuter and That Darn Cat; 33rd biggest 2022 between Barbarian and The Northman; 151st biggest animation/live action between Earth to Echo and Walking with Dinosaurs; 331st biggest Sony Pictures film between Colombiana and 8MM.
Sony had success with family films in Sept/October with 2009’s Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs took $124.87m; 2012’s Hotel Transylvania $148.31m; Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 $119.79m; 2015’s Hotel Transylvania 2 $169.7m and Goosebumps $80.08m.
Other live-action animated animal CGI family films fifth weekends include
2004’s Garfield dropped 37.8% by $1.88m and $67.96m of $75.36m; $203.17m WW
1999’s Stuart Little dropped 16.1% by $9.41m and $106.52m of $140.03m; $300.13m WW
2007’s Alvin and the Chipmunks dropped 40.2% $9.3m and $187.94m of $217.32m; $365.35m WW
2014’s Paddington dropped 22.7% by $4.03m and $62.22m of $76.27m; $282.37m WW
2018’s Peter Rabbit dropped 32.3% by $6.77m and $93.43m of $115.25m; $351.26m WW
2021’s Clifford the Big Red Dog dropped 30.9% $1.3m and $47.68m of $48.94m; $107.34m WW
1988’s Who Framed Roger Rabbit up 3.8% $8.91m and $84.05m of $156.45m; $329.8m WW
Took $6m from 40 territories $27.2m total and $63.8m worldwide; the film expands slowly internationally over the next two months; 52nd biggest 2022 film worldwide between The Northman and Beast; 157th biggest live-action animated film between Underdog and Monster Trucks; 299th biggest Sony Pictures film between The Remains of the Day and Random Hearts.
- The Banshees Of Inisherin – Searchlight
Up 284% taking $2.05m #7 in the third weekend expanded into 895 screens from 58 screens and $3.09m
Third weekends
In 2008 In Bruges down 23.9% $738,318 expanded into 163 screens adding 51 screens taking $2,744,872; increased by 5% in the 4th weekend adding 69 screens taking $775,255 and $3,763,918
2017’s Three Billboards added 561 screens in the third weekend up 299.5% taking $4,403,003 and $7,614,532; then dropped off the next two weeks despite adding almost 1,000 more screens; expanded again in January after receiving Oscar nominations going on to take about a third of its BO after Oscar nominations taking $54.51m.
2012’s Seven Psychopaths dropped 54.2% taking $1.49m and $11.95m of $15.02m
- Armageddon Time – Focus Features
Up 1,028% taking $792,760 from 1,006 screens adding 1,000 screens from last weekend and $884,935
After struggling to find an audience on limited release last weekend (taking $70,275 from 6 screens) Armageddon Time was always likely to struggle going wide so quickly, so always have to ask why studios expand films from limited release far too quickly.
Despite receiving positive reviews (78% Rotten Tomatoes) and strong buzz since its world premiere at Cannes Film Festival in May and received its US premiere at New York Film Festival earlier this month, the film struggled to find an audience on limited release.
UK Box Office Top 10
UK Box Office Preview
Black Panther Wakanda opens four years after Black Panther ended Phase 4 of the MCU which has been disappointing, Marvel made Black Panther more than a comic book promoting it as the first leading black comic-book movie (despite that happening 21 years earlier with Spawn and Blade) which saw the film attract many who don’t normally watch comic-book films. This time around Marvel is selling it as a female-led comic-book film again to try to attract people who don’t normally see comic-book movies.
Black Panther opened with £17.7m in February 2018 with three days of previews (£7.2m) so it’s unlikely to have a similarly sized opening that said a large percentage of 40% will come from IMAX/PLF. What will be interesting to see is the BO from 3D, it was retrofitted into 3D as Black Panther and many other MCU films have been.
Black Panther was #1 for 4 weeks (taking £17.7m; £6.85m; £3.73m and £2.93m) but Black Panther Wakanda Forever will likely be #1 for only two weeks, while the big question for the sequel is how BO will be affected by the Qatar World Cup starting 9 days after opening.
Had its world premiere on October 26th and the immediate reaction was predictable as it’s the same after the premiere of every MCU saying it was “the best Marvel film ever” but have to take it with a pinch as do with the reviews as MCU films are so overhyped. As even the first film that received critical acclaim (96% on Rotten Tomatoes) and a Best Picture Nomination was seen as overrated by many soon after opening.
It was all about timing for the first Black Panther Marvel had primed the audience with Black Panther appearing in Captain America: Civil War two years earlier, this was similar to the case with the massive success of Spider-Man No Way Home (and Top Gun: Maverick). It is very different from Black Panther Wakanda Forever, that said this time around Marvel want it seen as the first female-led comic-book movie.
After UK admissions topped 90.7m by the end of September (down 29.7% from 2019) the cinema industry is depending on both Black Panther Wakanda Forever and Avatar: The Way of Water to beat the BO of the original films if BO will top £1bn for 2022 and admissions will top 130m.
2018’s Black Panther and 2009’s Avatar became a global phenomenon as they both attracted audiences beyond their demographics, the sequels are likely to play more to their target demographics and not have the legs of the original films.
Black Panther Wakanda Forever will open about 20% less than the original £14m-£15m taking about £5m from opening day
Black Panther took 61% of the top 10 lower shares than many of the MCU films as being half-term 5 other films were holding strongly (Fifty Shades Freed £2,730,197; The Shape of Water £2,466,217; The Greatest Showman £1,927,367; Coco £1,400,000 and Early Man £1,154,533). It won’t be the case with the sequel with Black Adam dropping 60%+ with most others dropping 50%, the only film that will have a lower drop will be Lyle, Lyle Crocodile.
Black Panther Wakanda Forever will likely take 90%+ of Fridays to total BO taking £4.5m+ about 33% of opening (similar to Doctor Strange 2, The Batman, Suicide Squad and Captain America: Civil War) and about 85% of weekend’s BO (similar to Avengers: Infinity War, Doctor Strange 2 and Top Gun Maverick. As the majority of the weekends top 10 BO will be about £17.5m it will be the 6th biggest weekend of the year similar to March 4th when The Batman opens. As the problem will be it will cannibalize all other films as it takes over multiplexes opening in 8 screens of Vue Westfield limiting screenings for all others.
Avatar: The Way of Water will likely open to about double (£8,509,050), due to the rise in IMAX/PLF screens. That said it opens the weekend of the World Cup Final in Qatar when over 1.2bn people will be watching globally on Sunday.
Key to the success of both will be IMAX BO, in 2009 Avatar opened in the UK in 9 IMAX cinemas (BFI IMAX sold 99% average capacity average price of £12.90 for Black Panther 2 £22 and probably more for Avatar 2) taking about 7% of BO more than 2D took from 300 cinemas and globally opened in 261 IMAX cinemas. Avatar 2 will open in 63+ in the UK, 410+ in the US and 350+ Internationally.
James Cameron seems to be trying to lower expectations for Avatar: The Way of Water as there were originally four sequels planned but has recently said that the film series could end with Avatar 3 in December 2024. When James Cameron finally announced the Avatar sequels in 2016, they were vital to 20th Century Fox but since Disney acquired the studio the sequels aren’t as important to Disney who are more interested in MCU and Star Wars.
The big question is what BO success look like for Avatar: The Way of Water? As the first film took almost $3bn worldwide in 2009 so the sequel would surely need to take much more 12 years later as costs have increased across the board along with ticket prices and the increase of BO from IMAX and PLF screens along with 4DX.
US BO Preview
On Tuesday bookings for Black Panther were $45m which was 20% lower than Doctor Strange 2 ($85m advance (45.3%) $187.4m opening) and 40% more than Thor: Love and Thunder ($48m advance $144.1m (33.1%) opening).
The advance sales would be from ultra-fans booking IMAX screenings which would inflate BO numbers as prices are $20+ more than double the industry average. In 2018 advance sales opened a month before opening and within days it had broken Marvel’s record set by Captain America: Civil War in 2016 for advance sales.
Black Panther opened with $202m in February 2018 which was then the 5th biggest opening in the UK (now 8th) just below The Avengers ($207.43m) but the original film played way beyond the normal comic-book audience and became a must-see phenomenon attracting many who never see comic-book movies. While Marvel is trying to repeat it by selling the sequel as the first female-led comic-book movie it’s unlikely to attract a similar-sized audience.
For the last few weeks, the film has been tracking to open between $175m-$185m, it used to be Disney seemed to lower their expectations by about $20m+ so the films would open much bigger than expected, but recently they have opened close to track. Globally expected to open $355m- $365m (will be closer to $400m) being the third biggest global opening since cinemas reopened after Spider-Man: No Way Home ($568m) and Doctor Strange 2 ($429m).
Black Panther opened with $404m worldwide including $35m worldwide from 676 IMAX screens worldwide; opened with $81.5m from 48 territories on Friday (February 16th). The difference is in 2018 Black Panther opened in a crowded marketplace, but the sequel has the market for itself so should be opening far stronger, especially as 4 years on far more BO will be coming from IMAX and PLF and the addition of 4DX.
What will be interesting to see is the 3D BO as like the first film the sequel was retrofitted into 3D and with Avatar; The Way of Water opening in a month will show if fans are excited about watching films in 3D again. Many heralded the 3D re-release of Avatar in September as a success but opening with $10.5m was a fraction of the Star Wars 1997 re-release despite being 25 years later and a tripling of prices since.
Black Panther Wakanda Forever will be much more front-loaded than the first film likely to be #1 for two weeks unlike 5 for the first film, but the big question for Wakanda Forever is not if it opens with $180m+ it’s if it will be the latest member of the $100m loser club in its second weekend. As these films have so much hype surrounding them and the 15-34 audience swarm to them over opening weekend, the second-weekend drop is now far more important than its opening.
Opening next week
- Strange World – Disney (Wednesday)
The 61st Walt Disney animated film featuring voices of Jake Gyllenhaal, Dennis Quaid, Jaboukie Young-White, Gabrielle Union, and Lucy Liu and directed by Don Hall.
Has been a lack of family films this year why Minions: The Rise of Gru and DC League of Super-Pets held well in cinemas for many weeks after being released on VOD. Strange World is the first family film to open in the UK since Lyle, Lyle Crocodile last month, but faces immediate competition from Matilda the Musical opening two days later, Roald Dahl film adaptations have been hugely popular in the UK.
Buzz has been soft for Strange World likely to perform similarly to Encanto rather than hits like Ralph Breaks the Internet, Moana and Frozen and will likely have a 31-day theatrical window as Encanto last year released on Disney+ Christmas Day.
- Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical – Sony Pictures
Musical fantasy comedy based on the stage musical by Tim Minchin which was based on the book Matilda by Roald Dahl. It Is starring Alisha Weir, Lashana Lynch, Stephen Graham, Andrea Riseborough, and Emma Thompson and is directed by Matthew Warchus.
It’s the second film adaptation of the book after the 1996 film directed by Danny DeVito was the 14th biggest film of the year in the UK, making £10,227,163 made by Columbia Pictures.
Had a world premiere at the London Film Festival receiving positive reviews and is released exclusively in cinemas in the UK and on Netflix in the US and the rest of the world on 9th December 2022.
Roald Dahl’s film adaptations have been very popular in the UK
1990’s The Witches opened £168,742 (£585,165 inflated) taking £2,135,460 (£7,405,372 inflated)
1996’s Matilda opened £1,252,726 (£2,735,683 inflated) taking £10,227,163 (£22,333,913 inflated)
1996’s James And The Giant Peach opened £399,412 (£872,229 inflated) taking £5,750,628 (£12,558,128 inflated)
2005’s Charlie and the Chocolate Factory opened £7,972,168 (£13,676,246 inflated) taking £37,354,584 (£64,081,749 inflated)
2009’s Fantastic Mr Fox opened £1,517,312 taking £9,260,892
2016’s The BFG opened £5,288,529 taking £30,694,086
While musicals have also been hugely popular in the UK and the stage show Matilda has been hugely popular in the UK since its premiere in 2010 receiving widespread critical acclaim. Matilda the Musical should be a big family Christmas film and an alternative to Black Panther Wakanda Forever and Avatar The Way of Water and be an alternative for the World Cup.
- Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery – Netflix
Murder mystery sequel to 2019’s Knives Out starring Daniel Craig, Edward Norton, Janelle Monáe, Kathryn Hahn, Leslie Odom Jr., Jessica Henwick, Madelyn Cline, Kate Hudson, and Dave Bautista and directed by Rian Johnson.
In March 2021 Netflix acquired rights to two sequels to Knives Out for $469m
The film had its world premiere at Toronto Film Festival receiving positive reviews (80% Rotten Tomatoes) and it closed the London Film Festival, after much discussion, Netflix announced in October that major exhibitors would show the film in cinemas for a week in November a month before being released on Netflix. Much was made about this announcement, but independent exhibitors have been screening Netflix films for many years, but Netflix has never revealed their BO.
2019’s Knives Out opened for £2,937,305 (including £699,723 previews) taking £10,573,381
The film will be released in cinemas for one week after Netflix reached an agreement with major exhibitors to show the film after they refused to book their films previously as Netflix demand a shorter theatrical window. Independent exhibitors have been screening Netflix films in their cinemas for many years, major exhibitors’ refusal to book Netflix films has been short-sighted and double standards as they are willing to book Event Cinema screenings with often much short theatrical windows.
- She Said – Universal Pictures
Drama based on the 2019 book by Jodi Kantor and Megan Twohey exposed Harvey Weinstein’s history of abuse and sexual misconduct against women, starring Carey Mulligan, Zoe Kazan, Patricia Clarkson, Andre Braugher, Jennifer Ehle, Samantha Morton and Ashley Judd and directed by Maria Schrader.
Had its world premiere at the New York Film Festival receiving positive reviews (80% Rotten Tomatoes); it also received a UK premiere at London Film Festival.
The trial against Harvey Weinstein is currently happening in Los Angeles his lawyers tried to delay the trial claiming the films publicity and marketing could affect the trial, but he didn’t shy away from courting publicity as a producer inviting himself onto the Graham Norton Show, watching these clips now of him knowing that it was an open secret amongst many in Hollywood for decades feels very uncomfortable viewing.
2020’s The Assistant told a fictionalized story of a film producer who abused his female colleagues while also in January 2020 Bombshell was released about Fox News’s Roger Ailes who did a similar with female staff at the TV news channel opened with £742,085 taking £1,558,504.
There was also 2003’s Secretary opening #11 with £165,318 from 30 screens taking £829,624 despite playing in a maximum of 60 screens.
2016’s Spotlight opened £1,060,435 taking £5,851,006
1989’s The Accused opened £387,472 (£1,361,206 inflated) taking £4,183,348 (£14,696,283 inflated).
Opening against four other wide releases She Said is the film that will most likely struggle to find an audience and the audience who would be interested in seeing it won’t rush out to see it over opening weekend. The positive is the lack of major releases over the next two weeks until Avatar 2 and Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery only has a one-week release should mean that She Said will be able to hold its screens.
- Bones And All – Warner Bros
Coming-of-age cannibal road film starring Taylor Russell, Timothée Chalamet, Mark Rylance, Michael Stuhlbarg, André Holland, Chloë Sevigny, David Gordon Green, and Jessica Harper and directed by Luca Guadagnino based on the 2015 novel by Camille DeAngelis.
It received its world premiere at the Venice Film Festival, winning the Silver Lion for best direction and received critical acclaim (87% Rotten Tomatoes) for its performances, direction, cinematography, and fusion of genres. Had a UK premiere at the London Film Festival.
Warner Bros released the MGM film as part of the international distribution deal announced in August with Creed 3 being the second film they will release In March. MGM films were previously released internationally via Universal Pictures which will still release Bond 26 but Warner will release Bond 27 internationally. After decades of going from almost bankruptcy to being sold MGM has finally got strong foundations owned by Amazon and the studio is key for their streaming service a key part of Amazon Prime. So, the future of MGM is stable for the first time in over 30 years.
Hard to make any direct comparisons as there have been a lot of cannibal films but not comedies apart from
1999’s Ravenous opened #9 with £146,298 from 127 screens (opened the same weekend as Eyes Wide Shut (£1,189,672 from 344 screens)
