1. Jumanji: The Next Level – £9,464,661   – NE

Took £4.25m from 4 days of previews over Sat/Sun 7^th and 8^th and Wednesday/Thursday 11^th/12^th and was #1 on Wednesday and Thursday

8^th biggest opening of 2019 between Joker and Once Upon A Time In Hollywood (biggest non-comic-book or animated film opening of the year).

Sony Pictures UK second-biggest opening of 2019 after Spider-Man Far From Home and 10^th biggest opening ever in the UK for Soy Pictures between The Da Vinci Code and Spider-Man Homecoming.

96^th biggest opening in the UK between The Da Vinci Code and Logan (close to Star Wars: The Phantom Menace, Incredibles 2, Spider-Man Homecoming and Hobbit: The Desolation Of Smaug) and 182^nd biggest Fri-Sun opening between Mamma Mia! and Blade Runner 2049 (close to The BFG, How to Train Your Dragon 3, Mission Impossible: Fallout and Godzilla).

152^nd biggest inflation inflated between Planet of the Apes and Pulp Fiction (close to The Mask, The Jungle Book, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes and Babe).

Jumanji: The Next Level is already the 27^th biggest film of 2019 between The Addams Family and Alita: Battle Angel, showing how the biggest 30 films are squeezing the box office of the rest of the films; top 30 films will over £950m of 2019 BO over 70%; top 20 60%+; top 10 45%+.

Reviews for the sequel have been positive (68% Rotten Tomatoes) and 87% audience score,  similar to Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle in 2017 (76% Rotten Tomatoes) and 87% audience score.

2017’s Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle had weekend previews two weeks ago ahead of release due to Star Wars; The Last Jedi opening the week earlier taking £2.1m having a total opening of £8,154,548 which also included £2.04m from Weds/Thurs previews having a 7-day opening weekend in total. Welcome to the Jungle opened second to the second weekend of Star Wars: The Last Jedi taking £10,158,640 but dropped 64%.

The original film opened in February 1996 with £2.1m taking £13.41m; 2002 film Zathura as also marketed as spiritual sequel to Jumanji with the tagline “A new adventure from the world of Jumanji” the film received positive reviews from critics but flopped at the box office opened in February 2006 with £1.31m taking £4.11m.

Jumanji: The Next Level was always likely to have a big second-weekend drop against Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker but it will look much bigger than it really is after its opening was inflated with £4.25m. A drop of anything less than 70% would be seen as a very strong second weekend, as that would be about 50% second-weekend drop if Jumanji: The Next Level was to drop that amount it would surely eat into Star Wars opening.

Being the fifth Star Wars film in 5 years and after the polarised reaction of The Last Jedi two years ago against the strong performance of Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle. While the Star Wars fanatics can’t wait for the latest film, for others there is that feeling they had waiting to see Revenge of the Sith in 2005 after seeing Attack of the Clones, a feeling that needs to see the final film of the Skywalker Saga.

With Christmas school holidays ending this week Jumanji: The Next Level will surely become the 10^th this year to take over £30m at the UK box office becoming the 126th film to take over £30m at the UK BO since Jurassic Park in 1993.

2. Frozen 2 – £3,196,708   – £38,295,369

Down 27.35% in its fourth weekend

Had the 4th biggest fourth weekend animated film in the UK after The Lion King (£4,366,824); Toy Story 4 (£3,801,247) and Frozen (£3,518,099) and 1.6% more than Toy Story 3 j(£3,162,944)

13th biggest animated film in the UK after 24 days between The Simpsons and Shrek The Third and 25^th biggest inflation inflated between Inside Out and Shrek Forever After.

Had 5th biggest 3rd weekend of 20129 after Toy Story 4, Joker, The Lion King and Avengers: Endgame and close to Aladdin (£3,929,625);

The 17th biggest fourth weekend in the UK between Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone and Mamma Mia!.

After 24 days Frozen 2 is already the 8th biggest film of 2019 between Spider-Man Far From Home and Downtown Abbey and Disney’s 6th biggest film in the UK in 2019.

75th biggest film at the UK box office between The Simpsons and Shrek The  Third and 104^th biggest inflation inflated between The Hunger Games: Catching Fire and Deadpool; will become the 70^th film to take over £40m at the UK BO since Jurassic Park in 1993 and Disney’s 24th since Toy Story 2 in 2000 and their 20th this decade with Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker being Disney’s 21^st in a few weeks’ time; 5 are original animated films (Monsters, Inc, Finding Nemo, The Incredibles, Up and Inside Out) none are original live-action films which has been Disney’s weakness since this century.

Frozen 2 might be an animated film but it has much more in common with Harry Potter films as the original film became a cultural phenomenon when it was released in 2013 which saw children watch it multiple timed in cinemas and then again multiple times at home and then listened to Let It Go non-stop dressed as Elsa or Anna.

This was repeated again two years later with the two Frozen shorts Frozen Fever with 2015’s Cinderella and 2017’s Olaf’s Frozen Adventure Disney released the short with the re-release of Frozen in November 2017 with tickets only £1 opening with £1,115,689.

4^th weekend similar to

2016’s Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them dropped 40% taking £2,734,960 (#1 4 weeks) and £42,392,249 77.6% of £54,593,487

2010’s Harry Potter and the  Deathly Hallows Part 1 dropped 49% taking £1,905,368 #2 and £42,570,440 81.1% of £52,478,788

2011’s Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 dropped 38% taking £2,810,088 (#1 4 weeks)  and £62,377,429 85.3% of £73,090,591

2001’s Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone dropped 42% taking £3,345,310 (#1 4 weeks) and £43,335,133 67.7% of £63,957,673

But Disney animated films have longer-legged especially those that open in November (and July playing through till September) as they will play through till January.

And comparable to

The Lion King dropping 16% taking £4,366,824 (#1 4 weeks) and £59,913,197 78.9% of £75,926,643

Toy Story 4  dropped 32% taking £3,801,247 #2 and £42,598,992 64.5% of £66,030,065

2017’s Beauty and the Beast dropped 59% taking £2,759,448 #2 and £58,485,266 80.7% of £72,430,579

2013’s Frozen dropped only 10% taking £3,518,099 #2 (week after Christmas) and £23,583,531 65.8% of £42,976,318 down #3 in 5^th weekend taking £2,922,721 down 17% (end of school holidays) and £30,807,697 71.6% of £30,807,697

Took £1m+ for 8 weeks; top 5 for 9 weeks and top 10 for 10 weeks until the arrival of The Lego Movie in February 2014 (opened with £8,051,140).

While Frozen opened two weeks before Christmas holidays, Frozen 2 was 5 weeks ahead as its release was dated ahead of Thanksgiving in the US, so won’t hold as strongly but will hold #1 for three weeks before Jumanji: The Next Level and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker opens.

2013’s Frozen (£4,704,940) is 50th biggest animated opening in the UK in 2013 Frozen had the 29th biggest animated opening between How to Train Your Dragon and Shrek.

Let It Go video has been seen on YouTube over 1bn times on YouTube and the singalong over 1.9bn times since December 2013; in comparison Into the Unknown video has been seen over 37m titles on YouTube

Frozen took £42,976,318 was the 10th biggest animated film; in 2013 Frozen was the 5th biggest animated film after Toy Story 3, Shrek 2, Despicable Me 2 and Toy Story 2.

Frozen became a cultural phenomenon when it was released in 2013 as The Greatest Showman become two years ago, the difference between the two was Frozen had the Disney brand attached and mostly positive reviews while The Greatest Showman was purely audience-driven. Six months after Frozen was released the name Elsa climbed into 88th place up 243 slots on the UK baby name list.

Frozen took $1.2bn worldwide, at the time was 5th highest-grossing film of all time and the highest-grossing animation. Won two Oscars, a BATFA and a Golden Globe The soundtrack sold more than 10m worldwide in 2014 (1m+ in the UK), 7m Spotify streams and official YouTube videos of trailers and Let It Go in the hundreds of millions. Many of the music records were beaten by The Greatest Showman two years ago, after almost two years on the UK album chart it is still in the top 20 Despite its huge success Idina Menzel’s Let It Go only got to #11 in the UK singles chart.

After opening with 221% more than Frozen last weekend it’s unlikely that Frozen 2 will keep that pace and take 221% more than Frozen (£42,976,318) as that would be £95.9m; Frozen opened with 9.13x opening (opening weekend was only 10.95%) compared to 20.1% for Toy Story 4 and 21.9% for The Lion King, while Paddington was 13.5% and Paddington 19.3%.

Into the Unknown is #38 and Show Yourself #85 in the UK singles chart but while the soundtrack album for Frozen is #10 in its 205th week on release Frozen 2 soundtrack isn’t in the soundtrack chart but instead the compilation charts. Think you can chart a film’s popularity with its soundtrack sales as while people will rush out to see the film over opening weekend soundtrack sales are more steady

Disney released 9 films in 2019 have taken over £400m with Frozen 2 expected to take upwards of £50m+ and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker taking upwards of £100m and adding £70m+ from 20th Century Fox, Disney will take close to £600m in 2019 over 45% of 2019 UK box office.

3. Last Christmas – £1,288,646   – £14,945,504

Down only 2.2% in its fifth weekend; has taken 6.63x opening having better legs than Love Actually, Mary Poppins Returns, Downton Abbey and shortly Yesterday and Bridget Jones’s Baby.. (while not taking more than all of them at the box office, Last Christmas has held stronger from a much lower start ). 

Last Christmas continues to hold strong in the UK for its fifth weekend despite receiving poor reviews as British audiences seem to always fall for this awkward predictable Richard Curtis/TV humour which has made our taste in comedy so different to the US.

18^th biggest film of 2019 between The Lego Movie 2 and Maleficent: Mistress of Evil and Universal Pictured 5th biggest film of 2019 between The Secret Life of Pets 2 and  Yesterday.

46^th biggest Universal Pictures film in the UK between Captain Phillips and Pitch Perfect 3 (close to Bad Neighbours, Nanny McPhee & the Big Bang, Pitch Perfect 3 and Mrs Brown’s Boys d’Movie) and 52^nd biggest inflation inflated Universal Pictures film between Lucy and Step Up 2.

Last Christmas by Wham is up to #7 on the singles charts and the soundtrack album is #15

Fifth weekends

2003’s Love Actually dropped 42% £1,311,935 taking £27,871,625 77.3% of £36,026,147 (£58,583,059 inflation inflated)

2006’s The Holiday dropped 36% £566,825 (1st week of January) taking £11,600,696 95.9% of £12,097,597

2011’s Bridesmaid dropped 35% taking £1,022,982 and £18,356,960 82.2% of £22,318,130

2019’s Yesterday dropped 21% taking £613,000 and £11,066,534 80.73% of £13,714,876

Emilia Clarke was upset that spoilers were being revealed on social media about the film, but the title Last Christmas is the films biggest spoiler once you know the film features George Michael songs, as the next line is “I gave you my heart”… as the twist is Tom gave Kate her heart.

Despite underwhelming in the US taking only $34m and being out of the top 10 within 6 weeks Last Christmas has taken over $100m worldwide,

Universal Pictures had 24 released in 2019 taking over £170m with Cats and Black Christmas still to be released. Ahead of its release, Last Christmas was being compared to Love Actually which took almost double ($59.69m) 16 years ago and double worldwide $244.93m.

Cats is the big unknown as while trailers have had a mixed reaction musicals are normally very successful in the UK and with the cast and the popularity of the stage show and Christmas Cats could take anything between £20-30m.

Many think Universal is mad to release it against Star Wars but it’s targetting a very different demographic and after polarised reaction to Star Wars films there is room in the market for both. Only need to look back two years ago with The Greatest Showman that similarly opened week after The Last Jedi but became the people’s champion as was a popcorn movie that Cats could also become.

While Universal Pictures will end 2019 second to Disney this year with No Time To Die, Trolls World Tour, Fast & Furious 9, Minions 2, The Croods 2, Emma, Late Night in Soho and News of the World it will be a much closer battle in 2020.

4. Knives Out – £1,257,974    – £8,412,092

Down 23.1% in its third weekend

Has become Lionsgate’s second-biggest film of 2019 after John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum and 34^th biggest film of 2019 in the UK between Godzilla: King Of The Monsters and Abominable

Knives Out is Lionsgate’s 12^th biggest film in the UK between Saw III and Saw 3D and 15th biggest inflation inflated between Saw V and Drag Me to Hell.

2017’s Murder on the Orient Express dropped 48% in its third weekend taking £2,279,200 and £17,753,371 73.5% of £24,140,635 but can’t be compared directly as Agatha Christie is one of the biggest selling novelists in the UK and while it might be inspired by her Knives Out is a new story and has been compared to Clue, Gosford Park (took £12.3m), Gone Girl, Who Framed Roger Rabbit, Get Out and dare I saw it Netflix’s Murder Mystery with Adam Sandler and Jennifer Aniston.

Away from James Bond Daniel Craig has had limited success at the box office apart from 2011’s The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo dropped 37% in its third weekend taking £1,046,225 and £9,872,843 84.8% of £11,640,666 and Knives Out is his first film since 2017’s Lucky Logan opened with £705,087 taking £3,207,543;

Knives Out is Rhian Johnson’s first film since the polarised Star Wars: The Last Jedi which saw him being dropped from further Star Wars films; previously directed 2012’s Looper taking £9,706,738; 2010’s The Brothers Bloom (taking £114,981), and 2006’s Brick (taking £708,468).

Lionsgate released 17 films in 2019 taking over £53m and taken more than double 2018’s box office;

5. Black Christmas – £283,507  – NE

Black Christmas was a remake of the 2006’s Black Christmas which opened the same weekend of December in 2006 with £367,743 and similar to teen Christmas horror Krampus opened in December 2015 with £412,713 taking £1,184,159

Other female lead Blumhouse Production horrors

2017’s Happy Death Day opened with £998,388 taking £2,678,427

2018’s Truth or Dare opened with £931,250 taking £2,400,490

2019’s Happy Death Day 2Uopened with £735,454 taking £1,318,935

2014’s Ouija opened with £1,373,907 taking £3,207,638

2016’s Ouija: Origin of Evil opened with £779,626 taking £2,524,013

While similar Christmas themed teen horror

Teen horrors always suffer at the box office in the UK as they get PG-13 certificates in the US but 15s in the UK, they perform well in the UK but find themselves without an audience in the UK as they are stuck in the middle without an audience.

Last weekend teen horror Gremlins was re-released to celebrate the films 35^th anniversary opening with £162,528, the film was one of the first to receive PG-13 in the US and in 1989 BBFC launched 12 certificates. The 12 certificates was replaced by 12A in 2002 which pushed many non-tentpole PG-13 films like Black Christmas into 15s, which is problematic to teen horrors. It always surprised me that the BBFC didn’t keep 12 certificates along with the 12A as there are many films that need a higher corticate than 12A but don’t deserve a 15.

Blumhouse teen horrors repeat the same formula of 90s horrors including Scream and I Known What You Did Last Summer featuring popular TV actors, the difference was they were R rated/18 in the UK, while Blumhouse horrors are targetting a younger audience.

With Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker and Cats opening this weekend Black Christmas will be limited to late-night screenings this weekend. As I’ve said many times before films like Black Christmas that are played out with a week should surely be allowed a shortened theatrical window which for Black Christmas could be just two weeks. This would allow Universal Pictures to not be releasing a Christmas horror on video in March, which is often the case release Christmas films on home entertainment.

UK box office in detail

This weekend’s top 10 box office took £16,232,465 up 71.4% from last weekend £9,470,969

The weekend admissions 2,148,967 79.3% up from last weekend 1,198,163

19 films opened at weekend taking (E10,302,025); Jumanji: The Next Level 91.9% (£9,464,661); Black Christmas 2.7% (£283,507); remaining 17 films shared 5.3% (£553,857);

Top three took 85.9% (£13,950,015) of the top 10; Jumanji: The Next Level 58.3% (£9,464,661); Frozen 2 19.7% (£3,196,708); Last Christmas 7.9% (£1,288,646);

Up 11.3% from 2018: (£14,579,804); Aquaman (£5,230,285); Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (£2,279,995); Mortal Engines (£1,269,441); Free Solo (£387,402); La Traviata – Met Opera 2018 (£274,847); CBeebies Christmas Show: Thumbelina (£195,580); It’s a Wonderful Life (4K Restoration) (£114,865); #1 Aquaman £5,230,285 1st week 604 screens (35.8% of top 10)

Down 48.7% from 2017: (£31,690,287); Star Wars: The Last Jedi (£28,010,841); It’s a Wonderful Life (Re: 2017) (£61,102); #1 Star Wars: The Last Jedi £28,010,841 1^st week 723 screens (88.4% of top 10)

Up 11.8% from 2016: (£8,465,385); Office Christmas Party (£1,198,176); Snowden (£209,352); The Birth of a Nation (£135,162); Life, Animated (£25,612); The Pass (£18,673); #1 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them £2,734,960 4^th week 620 screens 40% drop (32.3% of the top 10)

Up 91.7% from 2015; (£5,906,053); Grandma (£35,916); By the Sea (£24,770); When Harry Met Sally (Re: 2015) (£4,975); #1 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 £1,286,244 4^th week 513 screens 43% drop (21.7% of top 10)

Down 5.1% from 2014: (£17,095,720); The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies (£9,753,642); Tinker Bell and the Legend of the NeverBeast (£395,454); Merchants of Doubt (£323); #1 The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies £9,753,642 1^st week 594 screens (57.1% of top 10)

Down 3.1% from 2013: (£16,740,270); The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (£9,325,626); Cinema Paradiso (Re: 2013) (£12,374); #1 The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug £9,325,626 1^st week 580 screens (55.7% of top 10)

Down 1.8% from 2012 (£16,530,942); The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (£11,601,538); Tinker Bell and the Secret of the Wings 3D (£528,820); Smashed (£1,991); Home Alone (Re: 2012) (£1,716); Neil Young Journeys (£423); Code Name: Geronimo (£388); #1 The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey £11,601,538 1^st week 1^st #1 598 screens (70.2% of top 10)

Up 117.2% from 2011 (£7,474,721); Puss in Boots (£1,975,758); New Year’s Eve (£1,285,552); A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas (£183,798); Another Earth (£90,950); #1 Puss in Boots £1,975,758 1^st week 1^st #1 510 screens (26.4% of top 10)

Up 102.5% from 2010: (£8,015,202); Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader (£2,460,118); The Tourist (£1,341,143); Somewhere (£125,581); The Shop Around the Corner (Re) (£8,038); #1 Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader £2,460,118 1^st week 536 screens (30.6% of top 10)

Up 137.7% from 2009; (£6,826,766); Where The Wild Things Are (£883,990); Carriers (£69,224); The Stepfather (£40,056); The Red Shoes (re) (£13,336); #1 A Christmas Carol £1,544,226 6^th week 2^nd #1 week 1 and week 5 7% drop 434 screens (22.6% of top 10)

Up 85.6% from 2008; (£8,742,920); The Day the Earth Stood Still (£2,752,132); Inkheart (£700,146); Dean Spanley (£42,898); White Christmas (re) (£7,518); #1 The Day the Earth Stood Still £2,752,132 1^st week 465 screens (31.5% of top 10)

Up 60.2% from 2007: (£10,130,524); Enchanted (£2,547,975); Bee Movie (£2,281,393); Mr Magorium’s Wonder Emporium (£459,734); We Own the Night (£441,416); It’s a Wonderful Life (RE)  (£15,025); Youth Without Youth (£8,174); My Kid Could Paint That (£2,336); #1 The Golden Compass £3,002,951 2^nd week 509 screens 59% drop (29.6% of top 10)

Up 68.8% from 2006; (£9,614,556); Eragon (£1,317,687); Déjà Vu (£1,098,295); Black Christmas (£367,743); Grounded (£240,378); The Wizard of Oz (re) (£22,973); #1 Happy Feet £2,034,916 2^nd week 466 screens 45% drop (21.6% of top 10)

Up 22.2% from 2005 (£13,287,703); The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe (£8,884,111); March of the Penguins (£183,798); #1 The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe 1^st week £8,884,111 498 screens (66.9% of top 10)

Up 57.3% from 2004 (£10,315,744); Blade: Trinity (£2,633,626); The Polar Express (expansion) (£2,136,898); Phantom of the Opera (£1,219,310); Garden State (£128,366); #1 Blade: Trinity £2,633,626 1^st 329 screens (25.5% of top 10)

Up 122.7% from 2003 (£7,288,995); The Fighting Temptations (£151,994); Touching the Void (£115,332); Dead End (£52,130); Lord of the Rings: The 2 Towers (Sp. Ed) (£42,378); #1 Love Actually £2,273,706 4^th week 486 screens 29% drop (31.2% of top 10)

Up 158.6% from 2002 (£6,276,464); Like Mike (£246,169); Dirty Pretty Things (£141,865); #1 Die Another Day £2,220,351 4^th week 463 screens 35% drop (35.4% of top 10)

Up 209.2% from 2001 (£5,249,630); The Deep End (£68,988); #1 Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone £2,391,251 5^th week 537 screens 29% drop (45.5% of top 10);

Next weekend in 2018: (£16,539,374); Mary Poppins Returns (£8,181,541); The Nutcracker – Bolshoi Ballet 2018 (£258,038); #1 Mary Poppins Returns £8,181,541 1^st week 735 screens (39.4% of the top 10)

 

Other Box Office News

After box office and admissions fir the first 11 months of 2019 have been less than 2018 the year is expected to top 2019 thanks to Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker, but with over 800 films and many more Event Cinema screenings, the industry should be about more than one film.

The problem this year is the top 10 films will take almost 50% of the box office, as cinemagoers have become more selective over the last decade in the films they see In cinemas. Cinemagoers want to see sure things, this is why Disney has had so much success over recent years as they aren’t risks.

Also Opened

• Home Alone – Park Circus

Opened with £88,010

Re-released for Christmas as Gremlins last weekend (took £162,528).

The classic 1990 Christmas comedy starring Macaulay Culkin, produced by John Hughes and directed by Chris Columbus.

Originally opened in December 1990 with £987,706 (£2,537,807 inflation inflated) taking £9,548,251 (£24,533,229 inflation inflated)

Two sequels followed Home Alone 2: Lost In New York in 1992 taking £14,267,615 and Home Alone 3 in 1997 taking £2,701,696.

Disney has recently announced plans to make a reimagination of it for Disney+.

Elf last weekend and also It’s A Wonderful Life this weekend (opening with £63,614); despite Elf being on TV on Sunday it still took £81,918 at the box office over the weekend #12 just behind Friends 25th: The One With The Anniversary #11 taking £87,974 and Home Alone #10 £88,010.

There is much concern by exhibitors over theatrical widows remaining as 17 weeks but these four films/TV shows were probably easily available to watch on TV or streamed but audiences choose to pay to see them in cinemas.

Surely this shows if people want to see a film in cinema they will see it in a cinema no matter if its available elsewhere, this is what I find frustrating over major exhibitors refusal for booking Netflix films like The Irishman and Marriage Story as audiences should be allowed a choice in where they want to see these films. Likewise, if a film underperforms like Black Christmas and Richard Jewell in the US (over the weekend) these films should be allowed to have flexible theatrical windows, so they can go on VOD within weeks rather than not be available legally anywhere.

If a film like Motherless Brooklyn which took only £50,000 in its second weekend was able to go on VOD within four weeks of theatrical release it would be like second-run cinemas of old, while it would allow more screen time for successful films and studios wouldn’t feel the need they have to give films a theatrical release.

UK Box Office Top 10

US Box office

• Jumanji: The Next Level – Sony Pictures

Opened with $59.25m; received positive reviews (68% Rotten Tomatoes compared to 76% for Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle) and x CinemaScore  

17^th biggest December opening between The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers and The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies and 16^th biggest Sony Pictures opening between the Amazing Spider-Man and Spider-Man 3

Took $4.7m from Thursday previews

Was tracking to open with $40m; Sunday estimate $60.14m dropping down to $59.25m

2017’s Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle opened with $36.16m (including $1.86m from previews) opening #2 to Star Wars: The Last Jedi taking $404.51m in the US and $962.07m worldwide

The sequel Jumanji: The Next Level opens the weekend before Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker was tracking to open with $40m+ and will see the Star Wars sequel but the first Star Wars film since Attack of the Clones in 2002 to have direct competition (Spider-Man). With all films since rival studios have kept their distance for Star Wars so will be interesting to see how Jumanji: The Next Level holds in its second weekend.

Since starring in Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle has starred in Dwayne Johnson has starred in Rampage opened $35.75m taking $101.02m in the US and $428.02m worldwide

Skyscraper opened $24.9m taking $68,42m in the US and $304.86m worldwide

Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw opened $60.03m taking $173.81m in the US and $758.91m worldwide

Will be seen next in Disney’s Jungle Cruise next summer and Red Notice for Netflix and then Shazam spinoff Black Adam.

Social media is massive for Jumanji: The Next Level with a score of 788.4m compared to 154.9m for a normal family film due to Dwayne Johnson (164m followers) and Kevin Hart (83m followers) with a reach of 568m by its opening weekend. Next Level has 130.4m Facebook fans, 21.9m Facebook video views, 78.7m Twitter followers, 264.3m YouTube views and 293.1m Instagram followers.

They both heavily promoted the film and were seemingly everywhere over the weeks before the film opened, having UK premiere on December 6^th and then in Los Angles on December 9^th.

Jumanji opened in December 1995 with $11.08m would be the equivalent of $23m today (n 1995 average ticket price was $4.35 compared to $8.95 today). Taking $100.47m would be over $200m today; Welcome to the Jungle is tracking to open with $60m for its opening 5-day weekend.

Zathura opened 10 years later with $13.42m (showing in 10 years how ticket prices had dramatically increased) taking only $29.25m.

Took $85.7m from 52 territories and $152.5m total and $213m worldwide; UK $12.6m; Russia $8.9m; Korea $5.7m; Mexico $4.8m; Germany $4.6m; India $4m; Spain $2.7m; Japan $2.1m

• Frozen 2 – Disney

Dropped 45.7% in its fourth weekend taking $19.07m and $366.43m

After opening with almost 50% more than 2013’s Frozen taking $130.26m Vs $67.39m the sequel has dropped much more heavily than the original film over the weeks after opening and its fourth weekend took very similar amount. This is due to Disney sequels and reimaginations never being as good as the original films,, despite the hype that surrounds them when audiences realise they are all hype no sustenance.

2013’s Frozen dropped 13% taking $19.64m and $192.03m 47.9% of $400.73m; stayed in the top 10 for 17 weeks taking $1m+ for 17 weeks

Comparisons could be made with

4^th weekends

2016’s Finding Dory dropped 50.2% taking $20.81m and $423.04m 87% of $486.29m; stayed in the top 10 for 7 weeks taking $1n+ for 9 weeks.

2018’s Incredibles 2 dropped 38.8% taking $28.4m and $503.76m 82.7% of $608.58m; stayed in top 10 for 8 weeks taking $1n+ for 13 weeks

2019’s Toy Story 4 dropped 38.1% taking $20.94m and $346.65m 79.9% of $434.03m; stayed in the top 10 for 8 weeks taking $1m+ for 11 weeks

2019’s The Lion King dropped 47.5% taking $20.2m and $473.3m 87.1% of $543.63m; stayed in the top 10 for 11 weeks taking $1m+ for 11 weeks

2013’s Frozen took $1.274bn worldwide and in 2013 Frozen overtook Toy Story 3 to become the highest-grossing animated film of all time but was surpassed this year by The Lion King reimagination.

For the third time, Disney has taken over $3bn at the US box office (last year Disney took $3.09bn). With a slate of films including Avengers: Endgame ($858.3m), The Lion King ($543.6m), Toy Story 4 ($434m), Captain Marvel ($426.8m and Aladdin ($355.6m) and on Monday became the first studio to take over $10bn worldwide in a year $3.2bn in the US and $6.71bn internationally, (Disney’s previous biggest was $7.6bn in 2016). Adding 20^th Century Fox BO they have taken $11.94bn.

6^th biggest 2019 film in the US between Despicable Me 2 and Inside Out

11^th biggest animated film between Zootopia and Minions

48^th biggest film in the US between Despicable Me 2 and The Jungle Book and 23^rd biggest Disney film between Finding Nemo and The Jungle Book; 133^rd biggest inflation inflated between Bruce Almighty and Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban.

Took $55.7m from 48 territories and $666m international and $1,032bn worldwide; China $111.5m; Korea $85.4m; Japan $67.3m; UK $49.6m; Germany $39.9m; France $37m; Russia $26.9m; Mexico $23.8m; Italy $17.3m; Spain $17m; Australia $15.5m; Philippines $15.3m; Indonesia $14.1m

Frozen 2 is Disney’s 6^th film to take over $1bn worldwide in 2019 after Avengers: Endgame, The Lion King, Captain Marvel, Toy Story 4 and Aladdin and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker will make it 7 shortly. While any studio having 7 films taking $1bn+ should be a massive achievement this was always expected when these films were dated for 2019.  

The big question is how many $1bn+ film will Disney get next year without Avengers films, Pixar sequels, the biggest Disney reimaginations and Star Wars, as their slate of two original Pixar films, two smaller MCU, one reimagination of Disney animated film which wasn’t a huge success originally and two original films would be much more impressive if they were also to take $1bn+ each.

8^th biggest 2019 film worldwide Aladdin and Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw

9^th biggest 2019 film, internationally between Aladdin and Toy Story 4 and 42^nd biggest film internationally between Spectre and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I.

8^th biggest animated film worldwide between Despicable Me 3 and Finding Dory

40^th biggest film worldwide between Despicable Me 3 and Finding Dory

22^nd biggest Disney film worldwide between Zootopia and Finding Dory.

• Black Christmas – Universal Pictures

Opened with $4.24m; received mixed reviews (49% Rotten Tomatoes) and D+ CinemaScore

Ahead of release Black Christmas was tracking to open low teens as Richard Jewell but both opened with less than half, while Jumanji: The Next Level opened with about a third more.

2015’s Krampus opened with $16.29m taking $42.72m and $61.548m worldwide

2006’s Black Christmas opened with $3.3m taking $16.27n and $21.51m worldwide

Blumhouse Productions has had success with teen girl horrors including

2017’s Happy Death Day opened $26.03m taking $55.68m and $125.47m worldwide

2018’s Truth or Dare opened $18.66m taking $41.41m and $95.33m worldwide

2019’s Happy Death Day 2U opened $9.49m taking $28.05m and $64.5m worldwide

2014’s Ouija opened $19.87m taking $50.85m and $103.59m worldwide

Blumhouse Productions films have taken $2.33bn in the US and $4.34bn worldwide

Opened with $3.1m from 37 territories and $7.6m worldwide

• Richard Jewell – Warner Bros

Opened with $4.68m; received positive reviews (76% Rotten Tomatoes) and X CinemaScore

Had one of Clint Eastwood’s lowest ever openings in the US only 1980’s Bronco Billy ($3.7m) was lower.

Clint Eastwood has had disappointments over recent years including The 15:17 to Paris and Jersey Boys but has also had success with The Mule, Sully and American Sniper over the last 5 years.

The film generated much criticism over its portrayal of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and the portrayal of the female journalist by Olivia Wilde who said on Twitter last week “Contrary to a swath of recent headlines, I do not believe that Kathy ‘traded sex for tips.’ Nothing in my research suggested she did so, and it was never my intention to suggest she had. That would be an appalling and misogynistic dismissal of the difficult work she did.”

While Warner Bros has had huge success with Joker this year they have had many disappointments with their original films including The Goldfinch, The Kitchen, Motherless Brooklyn and The Good Liar.

The failure of Richard Jewell plays right into Disney’s hands as it was one of the many original films they dropped after acquiring 20^th Century Fox that their properties over originals policy are what cinemagoers want despite audiences complaining, so will 2020’s Clint Eastwood Warner film to go to HBO Max?

Unless exhibitors bring in different tariffs for films while cinemagoers will begrudgingly pay $20 for Jumanji and Star Wars they won’t pay the same for a film like Richard Jewell so as with music or sporting events tickets for smaller films should be less than megamovies.

The other is a flexible theatrical window for these films so once they playout can move to stream within weeks and not have to playout the theatrical window. With so many new films opening over the next 10 days exhibitors will drop many screens from Richard Jewell, so surely it should be allowed a much earlier VOD as has very limited theatrical potential.

Clint Eastwood is 89 years old but keeps making films Richard Jewell is the 8th film he has directed over the last 9 years having huge success with 2014’s American Sniper and 2016’s Sully with his last 2018’s The Mule taking over $100m

Richard Jewell is Clint Eastwood’s 37th film he has directed over 48 years taking $1.99bn in the US and $3.32bn worldwide; Richard Jewell is his 11th film in arrow for Warner Bros since 2008’s Gran Torino.

• Knives Out – Lionsgate

Dropped 35.7% in its third weekend taking $9.13m and $78.81m

The third weekend was similar to 2017’s Murder on the Orient Express taking $13.17m and $74.36m 72.3% of $102.82m in the US and $252.78m worldwide.

The first film Rian Johnson has directed since the polarised Star Wars: The Last Jedi. Prior to directing The Last Jedi Rian Johnson was best known for directing indie films including Brick, The Brothers Bloom and Looper (opened $20.8m taking $66.48m and $176.5m.

Took $3.6m from 73 territories and $83.3m total and $162.2m worldwide; China $27.4m; UK $11m; Australia $5.5m; Russia $4.5m; France $4.2m.

• Ford v Ferrari – 20th Century Fox

Dropped 38.6% in its fifth weekend taking $4.08m and $98.18m

Ford Vs Ferrari has overtaken Alita: Battle Angel to become 20^th Century Fox’s biggest film of the year and will shortly also become their first $100m+ film since Bohemian Rhapsody.

28^th biggest 2019 film between Rocketman and Alita: Battle Angel; 103^rd biggest 20^th Century Fox film in the US between The Poseidon Adventure and Me, Myself & Irene.

Ford v Ferrari was always the diamond in a rough of 20^th Century Fox 2019 slate and the one likely to be their biggest film of the year as it is the genre of films the studio has had much success this century targetting older demographics including

5^th weekends

2005’s Walk the Line dropped 35.7% taking $3.68m and $82.6m 69.1% of $119.51m total and $186.43m worldwide

2013’s Rush dropped 47.1% taking $1.26m and $24.62m 91.4% of $26.94m and $90.24m worldwide

2015’s Bridge of Spies dropped 26.8% taking $4.26m and $61.67m 85.3% of $72.31m and $165.47m worldwide

2016’s Sully dropped 39.4% taking $5.01m and $113.22m 90.5% of $125.07m and $240.79m worldwide

2012’s Argo dropped 35.2% taking $6.61m and $85.58m 62.9% of $136.02m and $232.32m worldwide

Took $5.1m from 53 territories $86.4m total and $184.6m worldwide; Russia $9.8m; France $8.7m; UK $7.7m; Korea $7m; Australia $6.3m; Mexico $4.9m; Germany $3.6m; Italy $3.2m; Spain $2.6m

53^rd biggest 2019 international film between Rocketman and The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part and 40^th biggest 2019 film worldwide between Rocketman and Abominable; 140^th biggest 20^th Century Fox film international between Aliens vs. Predator – Requiem and Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps and 123^rd biggest 20^th Century Fox film worldwide between Walk the Line and Aliens.

882^nd biggest film  ever worldwide between Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs and Road to Perdition

• A Beautiful Day In The Neighbourhood – Sony Pictures

Dropped 36.9% in its fourth weekend taking $3.27m and $49.25m

Holding similar to Tom Hanks 2015’s Bridge of Spies taking $5.83m in its third weekend dropping 30.4% and $54.72m taking $72.31m and $165.47m worldwide.

Tom Hanks received Best Actor Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild Awards nomination last week but is unlikely to win either which will make it hard to find an international audience as its international release was tied towards Oscar nominations opening in late January and February. A Fred Rogers biopic would be like selling a biopic about Phillip Schofield to US audiences.

Documentary Won’t You Be My Neighbour? about Fred Rogers performed strongly taking $22.84m last year but only took $6,613 internationally.

• Dark Waters – Focus Features

Down 52.5% in its fourth weekend taking $1.89m and $8.78m

Despite critical acclaim, Dark Water still dropped heavily in its second weekend wide

The legal thriller about the true story of a chemical company poisoning a small town being exposed by an environmental activist and the $671m class-action lawsuit in 2017. The film has similarities with Steven Soderbergh’s Oscar-winning Erin Brockovich starring Julia Roberts and Mike Nichols’ Silkwood starring Meryl Streep.

2000’s Erin Brockovich opened with $28.13m taking $125.59m in the US and $256.27m worldwide

1983’s Silkwood opened with $1.21m taking $35.61m;

Comparisons have also been made with 2018’s On the Basis of Sex which opened on a platform with $477,946 expanding into 1,923 screens in its third weekend taking $6.07m taking $24.62m and $38.67m the film missed out on award recognition which saw it fail to find a wide audience.

Todd Haynes biggest film was 2002’s Far From Heaven taking $15.9m and 2015’s Carol taking $12.71m

The 8 films he has directed have taken $36.92m in the US and $93.73m worldwide

• Jojo Rabbit – Fox Searchlight

Dropped 179 screens down to 400 screens in its ninth weekend 33.9% drop taking $372,306 and $19.97m

JoJo Rabbit is holding similar to last years The Favourite but after four strong weekends dropped for the fourth weekend, there was always the concern that JoJo Rabbit would repeat similar mistakes of expanding for too wide too quickly and then lose those screens as it has done.

So many award contenders open ion platform strongly but then studio will expand the film far too quickly as was the case with JoJo Rabbit as the film was too quirky for mainstream audiences to open wide, it needed award recognition and in January boosted by Golden Globes and Oscar nominations it will expand again as many other Fox Searchlight films have done previously.

8^th weekend Fox Searchlight comparison films

2018’s The Favourite dropped 26.4% adding 5 screens to 517 taking $815,322 #18 and $22,804,347 66.3% of the total; took 11 weeks to expand into its widest 1,554 screens going on to take $34,366,783 and played in cinemas for over 16 weeks.

2017’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri up 4.4% adding to 1,854 screens taking $5,922,553 #20 and $37,901,298 46.5% of total; 5 weeks to expand into widest 1,620 screens expanding again in 10th weekend (Golden Globe’s weekend) to 1,022 screens going on to take $54,513,740 and played in cinemas for over 20 weeks.

2017’s The Shape of Water up 170.9% adding 1,001 screens added 130 screens to 853 taking $2,186,311 #8 down up  22.9% and $30,195,358 59.3% of the total; took 10 weeks to expand into widest 2,341 screens going on to take $63,859,435 and played in cinemas for over 18 weeks.

2015’s Brooklyn up 16.6% added dropped 15 screens to 285 taking $1,248,858 #14 and $20,812,853  54.3% of the total; took 6 weeks to expand into 947 screens expanding again in January going on to take $38,322,743 and played in cinemas for over 20 weeks.

2014’s Birdman up 13.9% dropped 132 screens to 606 screens taking $1,150,315 #10 and $20,778,965 49.1% of the total; took 8 weeks to expand into 738 screens (expanded into 1,213 screens after Oscar win) going on to take $42,340,598 and played in cinemas for over 20 weeks.

2013’s 12 Years A Slave dropped 36.1% and 585 screens to 497 taking $732,825 #16 and $36,364,513 64.2% of the total; took 6 weeks to expand into widest 1,474 screens going on to take $56,671,993 and played in cinemas for over 25 weeks.

Fox Searchlight has had many successful Oscar winners that also started on platform, but they had a much wider target demographic before opening (Juno, Slumdog Millionaire, Black Swan, The Descendants, Sideways and The Full Monty) JoJo Rabbit’s not yet that must-see Oscar contender receiving a polarised critical reaction.

On platform

• Bombshell – Lionsgate

Opened with $317,014   from 4 screens; received positive reviews (61% Rotten Tomatoes)

Last week received two Golden Globe nominations for Best Actress Drama Charlize Theron and Best  Supporting Actress Margot Robbie and three Screen Actors Guild Awards nominations for Best Actress Charlize Theron and Best  Supporting Actress Margot Robbie and Nicole Kidman.

The film expands wide next weekend

• Uncut Gems – A24

Opened with $537,242 from 5 screens

Having the second-best screen average after Parasite‘s $131K this year and A24 biggest screen average ever.

• A Hidden Life – Fox Searchlight

Opened with $50,383 from 5 screens

Was surprising despite recent Terrence Malick films underperforming at the box office it was Fox Searchlight’s first film they acquired since being acquired by Disney as while the film received positive reviews it will have a very limited audience. Was probably more acquired to be another prestige film that is Oscar bait but paying $14m for rights, they are unlikely to turn a profit.

The 8 films Terrence Malick directed have taken $89.21m in the US and $226.68m worldwide since 1978 his biggest film is 1998’s The Thin Red Line taking $36.4m in the US and $97.7m worldwide

His last three films have taken less than $1m with 2011’s Tree of Life taking only $13.1m

 

UK Box Office Predictions

 

Previous Disney Star Wars films openings

In 2015

Star Wars: The Force Awakens opened with £34,011,849 (including £9,679,746 previews) with Sisters opening second with £1,215,368 (including £734,401 from 4 days of previews) and The Good Dinosaur #3 with £890,350

Took £2.4m from midnight screenings and £9.6m from Thursday (previous high as HPDH2 £9.48m); Friday £6.9m; Saturday £8.7m (biggest ever Saturday beating previous record high of Skyfall); Sunday £8.5m

In 2016

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story opened with £17,305,011 (including £4,086,256 previews)

#2 Moana £1,424,527 (3rd w/e); #3 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them £1,416,433 (5^th w/e)

In 2017

Star Wars: The Last Jedi opened with £28,010,841 (including £7,684,217 previews)

#2 Paddington 2 £1,357,273 (6^th w/e); Daddy’s Home 2 £1,032,977 (4^th w/e)

Had no competition either opening against them or on release at the time with the exception of 2018 when Deadpool 2 held strongly in second with £3,771,293 to Solo: A Star Wars Story £6,061,231 (including £1,215,147 previews) and Avengers: Infinity War #3 £1,215,206 (5^th w/e)

While Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker opens against Cats and has the second weekend of Jumanji: The Next Level which opened strongly last weekend with £9,464,661. As in 2017 when the films opened in the opposite order Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle opened strongly in Star Wars: The Last Jedi second weekend its likely Jumanji: The Next Level despite dropping 70%+ will still take £2m+.

Advance tickets went on sale on October 21st media immediately reported website delays ad crashes as occurred with The Force Awakens and The Last Jedi but after few hours the demand dropped off. While many rushed to book cinemas like BFI IMAX with many sold-out performances over the opening weekend it took over a month for Odeon Leicester Square to sell-out one screening over its opening weekend.

Embargo ends at 12am December 18th PST; premiere reaction was mostly positive on Tuesday morning but can never trust immediate reaction as The Last Jedi received very positive reactions which got polarised days later as the pixel dust fades away. (even Justice League received very positive premiere reaction, but then days later turned into very negative reviews). This is often the reason why embargos often end immediately after media screening ends as the studio wants to catch the journalist when they are hyped up, and eager to be the first review they see as often happens with James Bond films. There were some mixed reactions to The Rise of Skywalker, pixel dust will fade away the question will be will it be before it takes $2bn+ as The Force Awakens or $1.3bn as The Last Jedi.

The Last Jedi had the widest ever release in the UK playing in 723 cinemas more than 2016’s Rogue One opened in 698 cinemas and The Force Awakens 670 cinemas while Revenge of the Sith opened in 490 cinemas, Attack of the Clones in 2002 opened in 467 cinemas. Of course, with many multiplexes showing it on the majority of their screens with many showing it every 15 mins at peak times over the weekend was probably showing in more than 2,500 screens, will see only about 20% of about 10m available seats sold over its opening weekend opening with £30m+.

Ahead of the release of The Rise of Skywalker many expected a pivotal gay scene as in MCU films, there are some bromances within the Disney Star Wars films but as with Avengers: Endgame the gay moment lasts a few seconds. Ahead of the release of Frozen 2 many speculated Elsa would get a girlfriend but neither did that happen, so must assume China is one of the reasons for these moments not to be bigger as they would just remove them.

While Disney’s Star Wars films have performed strongly worldwide they have failed to find a wide audience in China due to the original Star Wars films not being released officially in China until quite recently. While Disney promoted heavily The Force Awakens and The Last Jedi in China it was like opening Harry Potter film series at Deathly Hallows Part 1, despite many peoples problem with The Force Awakens being a remake of A New Hope.

The Force Awakens had the third biggest opening in the UK after Avengers: Endgame and Spectre and The Last Jedi is the fifth biggest opening.

Without any knowledge of how the 10 weeks of advance bookings have been would expect The Rise of Skywalker to open between The Force Awakens and The Last Jedi with £30m+ including £7m+ from previews.

Writing this on Monday there doesn’t seem to be the hype there was for either The Force Awakens (which was never likely to be repeated until the launch of the new trilogy in 2022) and The Last Jedi possibly after the polarised reaction of the film 2 years it has slightly softened after Solo: A Star Wars Story opened (£6,061,231) 65% less than Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (£17,305,011) and Solo had competition from Deadpool 2 as The Rise of Skywalker has with Jumanji.

Opening against Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is the biggest film to open against a Star Wars film, the long in development Cats musical, while the trailers received a mixed reaction, the musical Cats was a huge population West End musical and musicals are also hugely popular in the UK. Only need to look back at The Greatest Showman opening the week after The Last Jedi which also had similar late embargo (on the day the film opened, despite screening it several weeks earlier) critics were also very snobbish about but becoming the people’s champion despite reviews.

Cats had its world premiere on Monday in the US receiving mostly positive reaction so not the disaster many expected after the film wasn’t screened earlier, but it was reported that director Tom Hooper only completed the film the day before.

Musicals have performed much stronger in the UK to the US

2018’s Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again had the biggest musical opening with £9,735,930 taking £65,591,730

But comparisons to Cats are closer to 2012’s Les Miserables opening with £8,127,991 taking £40,818,299

But opening against Star Wars an opening similar to The Greatest Showman (£4,754,049); 2008’s Sweeney Todd (£4,525,246) and 2018’s A Star Is Born (A Star Is Born) is more likely.

In the US

2015’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens opened with $247.96m  (third biggest opening) 26.4% of $936.66m

2017’s Star Wars: The Last Jedi opened $220.01m (fourth-biggest opening) 35.4% of $620.18m

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker was tracking to open between $175m- $200m a few weeks ago, normally Disney films open about 20% more than tracking but normally Disney films don’t have direct competition opening the weekend before. With Jumanji: the Next Level likely to take upwards of $30m and Cats and Bombshell likely to take low teens (those two films playing to a more female older demographic) The Rise of Skywalker will probably take just over $200m which would be the 8^th biggest opening in the US ever.

Star Wars: The Force Awakens opened with $528m worldwide (4th biggest WW) 25.6% of its $2.068bn total

Star Wars; The Last Jedi opened with $450.8m worldwide (8th biggest WW) 33.8% of its $1.332bn total.

Bob Iger said at the premiere on Monday that they might still make further trilogies in the future but at the moment they don’t have future films planned out at the moment. Originally Disney planned yearly Star Wars films infinitely but scaled back plans with the next Star Wars film expected in 2022 with a Star Wars film opening to alternative years to Avatar sequels.

In Germany, Burger King is offering free Whoppers to customers who read out Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker spoilers

Opening in the UK Next Week

• Little Women – Sony Pictures

Period drama starring Saoirse Ronan, Emma Watson, Florence Pugh, Eliza Scanlen, Laura Dern, Timothée Chalamet, and Meryl Streep and written and directed by Greta Gerwig; had world premiere at the Museum of Modern Art in New York City on December 7^th receiving critical acclaim and two Golden Globe nominations for Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama for Ronan and Best Original Score.

It is the eighth film adaptation of the 1868 novel of the same name by Louisa May Alcott

After directing the Oscar-nominated Lady Bird in 2017 I would have expected Greta Gerwig would follow it up with another original film but directing a remake of Little Women 25 years after Gillian Armstrong’s practically perfect film adaptation, it feels like the easy option to remake a classic. Saying that many saw Lady Bird as a remake of the John Hughes classic Pretty in Pink, while Lady Bird received critical acclaim, but the audience reaction was much more polarized.

The 1994 adaptation of Little Women was lovely from a lovely cast including with the cast including Winona Ryder, Samantha Mathis, Claire Danes, Kirsten Dunst, Susan Sarandon and Christian Bale to the stunning score by Thomas Newman still regularly listen today.

Thomas Newman wrote some fabulous music scores in the 90s including Scent of a Woman, The Shawshank Redemption, The Green Mile and Road to Perdition, more recently best known for Skyfall, Spectre, Bridge of Spies and upcoming 1917.

The film has generated strong social media coverage especially on Instagram thanks to Emma Watson having almost 53m followers and as she did with 2017’s has heavily promoted Little Women on Instagram including pictures from premieres and clothes worn in the film.

Little Women opened in March 1995 #1 with £1.22m; taking £2.64m inflation inflated (has been over 100% ticket inflation since 1995) taking £2.83m (£6.1m inflation inflated)

Lady Bird opened similar amount in February 2018 taking £1,233,508 from 190 screens #3 expanding into 397 screens in its second weekend but still dropped 25% and down to #5 taking £926,935 and £2,623,540 taking £5,079,887 staying in the top 10 for 4 weeks

Lady Bird’s release was the week after BAFTAs and week before Oscars and was the last Oscar nominee released so had far less competition than Little Women has. Sony Pictures had originally dated the film in January but brought it forward to Boxing Day opening days after the US.

While Little Women might have only received two Golden Globes it is expected to do much better with BAFTA and Oscar nominations; Lady Bird received 5 Oscar nominations and 3 BAFTA nominations but won two Golden Globe Awards but no Oscars or BAFTAs.

Little Women feels like its going to be that award contender that will get nominated but wont’ win anything as there are much more deserving films, but that is the problem with award ceremonies they only have 5 categories and one winner but there are probably more than a dozen films deserving awards. This is always why I find it strange the media calls when a performance hasn’t nominated a snub as the odds are always stacked against being even nominated.

With Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Jumanji: The Next Level, Cats, Spies in Disguise and Frozen 2 all likely to have a strong Christmas Little Women might not even open in the top 5 as Boxing Day is a Thursday.

Problem Sony had was if they open Little Women in January they are competing against many other award contenders including JoJo Rabbit, 1917 (looking like its going to be the must see Oscar nominee), A Hidden Life, Bombshell, Just Mercy,  The Personal History Of David Copperfield, A Beautiful Day In The Neighbourhood, Queen & Slim, Richard Jewell, The Lighthouse and also release Bad Boys For Life in January.

• Playing With Fire – Paramount Pictures

Family comedy starring John Cena, Keegan-Michael Key, John Leguizamo, Brianna Hildebrand, Dennis Haysbert, and Judy Greer and directed by Andy Fickman; received negative reviews but still opened with $8.6m taking $50m

Paramount Pictures has had success with family comedies recently

2019’s Instant Family opened with £2,469,853 taking £10,459,989

2017’s Daddy’s Home opened with £4,919,051 taking £14,296,957

2015’s Daddy’s Home opened with £1,628,219 taking £16,742,333

John Cena has been slowly following in Dwayne Johnson footsteps starring in comedies Daddy’s Home, Daddy’s Home 2, Blockers (opened with £1,349,627 taking £4,239,132) and Fighting with My Family (opened with £2,022,174 taking £5,837,684)and Transformers prequel Bumblebee (opened with £5,103,382 taking £11,643,637). Next year stars in Dolittle and Fast & Furious 9 next year and then The Suicide Squad in 2021 which will see him crossover into possibly similar action star was Dwayne Johnson.

Christmas is a crazily time for cinemagoing highlighted by 2016’s Monster Trucks opening with £1,726,229 taking £3,255,346 despite receiving terrible reviews.

• Spies in Disguise – 20th Century Fox

Animated spy comedy film made by Blue Sky Studios loosely based on Lucas Martell’s 2009 animated short Pigeon: Impossible; featuring the voices of Will Smith and Tom Holland, alongside Rashida Jones, Ben Mendelsohn, Karen Gillan, and Rachel Brosnahan and directed by Nick Bruno and Troy Quane; had its world premiere at the El Capitan Theatre on December 5th.

Originally dated for January 2019 then called Pigeon: Impossible but was delayed several times to April, September and then finally December.

It’s the first Blue Sky Studios film released by 20^th Century Fox since being acquired by Disney, there was always the question over what Disney would do with Blue Sky Studios having already got Pixar and Walt Disney Studios.

Spies in Disguise is the 13^th Blue Sky Studios animated film released by 20^th Century Fox since Ice Age in 2002, while they haven’t had the success of Disney and Pixar most have performed well at the box office.

The 12 Blue Sky Studios films have taken over £196m at the UK box office

Spies in Disguise has received positive reviews (75% Rotten Tomatoes) the spy spoof comedy has similarities with Dreamworks Animation’s Flushed Away opened with £3,106,874 in 2006 (£4,606,084 inflation inflated) and £10,749,860 (£15,937,164 inflation inflated).

Spies in Disguise could do similar as Christmas holidays are very lucrative especially for children’s films and Spies in Disguise will be targetting a younger male preteen audience too young for either Star Wars or Jumanji.

Opening in US Next Week

• Little Women – Sony Pictures

Tracking to open with $19m-$35m over 5-day Christmas weekend

The posters released in October received poor reaction on social media as they made the film look like a millennial rom-com and questioned why Timothée Chalamet has his own separate poster along with the female actresses as the film is about women.

It almost feels like the studio felt they still needed to promote Timothée Chalamet role in the film as they felt Saoirse Ronan, Emma Watson and Florence Pugh weren’t strong enough to promote the film.

Hard to compare with 1994’s Little Women opening #2 with $2.41m (behind Streetfighter opening with $6.85m) taking $46.13m ($105m inflation inflated)

Lady Bird opened on limited release in 2017 taking five weeks to expand in over 1,000 screens, while performing strongly on platform didn’t do as well on a wide release as despite critical acclaim audience reaction was much more mixed. Lady Bird got a boost from Holden Globes and Oscars which Little Women will need if it’s going to breakthrough the crowded marketplace of female focussed films.

• Spies in Disguise – 20^th Century Fox

Expected to open with $25-$30m over 5 day opening

Will Smith previously voiced 2004’s Shark Tale opening with $57.6m taking $160.86m in the US and $363.53m but this was when Will Smith was a strong box office success starring in Men In Black 2, Bad Boys 2. I, Robot and Hitch.

Similar to 2006’s Flushed Away which opened with $18.81m taking $64.66m in the US and $178.12m worldwide

• Just Mercy – Warner Bros (platform)

Legal drama starring Michael B. Jordan, Jamie Foxx, Rob Morgan, Tim Blake Nelson, Rafe Spall, and Brie Larson and directed by Destin Daniel Cretton based on the memoir written by Bryan Stevenson; had its world premiere at the Toronto International Film Festival receiving positive reviews highlighting the strong performances of the leads

Over the years set on death row have been many films either based on true stories or fictional stories including 1995’s Dead Man Walking and Just Cause, 1996’s Last Dance, A Time to Kill, and The Chamber, 1999’s The Green Mile and True Crime and 2003’s The Life of David Gale.

Opens on limited release before opening wide in January.

• 1917 – Universal Pictures (platform)

Epic war film starring George MacKay, Dean-Charles Chapman, Mark Strong, Andrew Scott, Richard Madden, Claire Duburcq, Colin Firth, and Benedict Cumberbatch and  directed by Sam Mendes; receiving 3 Golden Globe nominations (Best Film, Best Director and Best Original Score by Thomas Newman).

Royal Film Performance on December 4^th was the films world premiere and the film received universal critical acclaim (92% Rotten Tomatoes)

Opens on a platform release on Christmas Day before going wide on January 10^th (Oscar nominations announced on January 13^th)

The film was filmed to look like it was shot in one shot by cinematographer Roger Deakins

Away from James Bond Spectre and Skyfall, Sam Mendes also directed 2009’s Away We Go (opened on platform 4 screens $130,411/ $1,709,313 wide taking $9,430,988), 2008’s Revolutionary Road (opened on platform 3 screens $189,911/$5,185,146 wide taking $22,877,808),  2002’s Jarhead (opened with $27,726,210 taking $62,647,540), 2002’s Road to Perdition (opened with $22,079,481 taking $104,054,514) and its 20 years ago since Sam Mendes directed the Oscar winning American Beauty (opened on platform 11 screens $861,531/ $9,505,313 wide taking $130,058,047).

1998’s Saving Private Ryan opened with $30,576,104 taking $216,118,802 and $481,840,909 worldwide

1998’s The Thin Red Line opened on platform 5 screens taking $282,534/$9,765,762 wide taking $36,257,435 and $98,126,565 worldwide

2011’s War Horse opened with $7,515,402 taking $79,883,359 and $177,584,879 worldwide

2017’s Dunkirk opened with $50,513,488 taking $188,045,546 and $525,245,546 worldwide