1. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker –  £9,311,240   – £39,435,355

Down 55.3% in its second weekend (35% not including previews)

Had the 11^th biggest second weekend between Joker and Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire and the 32^nd biggest inflation inflated second weekend between The Dark Knight and Marvel Avengers Assemble (close to Star Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Toy Story, Alice In Wonderland and Frozen 2) interestingly just slightly more than Star Wars: The Phantom Menace,, Men In Black, and Fantastic Beasts while taking less than Joker.

Second weekends

2017’s Star Wars: The Last Jedi took £10,158,640 64% drop (50% not including previews) and £50,653,797 61.3% of £82,676,198

2016’s Rogue One: A Star Wars Story took £5,652,730 67% drop (57% not including previews) and £33,943,482 51.4% of £66,010,513

2015’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens took £10,164,805 70% drop (58% not including previews) and £65,911,544 53.6% of £123,002,074

Hard to make direct comparisons with the previous three Disney Star Wars films opening in December as they had a long gap between release date and Christmas and school holidays. While The Rise of Skywalker opened the day school holidays started but that also meant opening week was only six days (including previews) as the majority of cinemas were closed on Christmas Day.

2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story took £3,147,338 48% drop (35% not including previews) and £13,907,406 71.6% of £19,432,391

2005’s Star Wars: Episode III Revenge of the Sith took £5,427,091 62% drop (49% not including previews) and £24,304,352 62.1% of £39,188,065 (£62,484,579 2019)

2002’s Star Wars Ep II – Attack of the Clones took £5,955,017 48% drop (34% not including previews) and £21,436,645 57.5% of £37,235,880 (£65,184,489 2019)

1999’s Star Wars Ep II – Phantom Menace took £5,104,514 46% drop and £20,571,053 40.5% of £50,734,924 (£91,811,875 2019)

Took £6,479,868 from Thursday previews; 33% less than 2015’s The Force Awakens (£9.6m) and 17% less than 2017’s The Last Jedi (£7.68m).

Took £29.8m over its opening week having the 9^th biggest 7 day opening weekend after The Force Awakens (£55,746,739); Avengers: Endgame; Spectre; The Last Jedi (£40,495,157); Avengers: Infinity War; Skyfall; Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2; Toy Story 3

7^th biggest film of 2019 between Captain Marvel and Aladdin

73^rd biggest film in the UK between Captain Marvel and Inside Out and 104^th biggest inflation inflated film between Captain Marvel and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

On Monday, December 30^th became the 71st film in the UK to take £40m+ and Disney’s 25^th since Toy Story 2 in 2000.

What helped The Force Awakens be the huge success it was five years ago apart from being the first Star Wars film in 10 years and to catch up on old friends. Despite all of this baggage that could have weighed down the film as was the case with the prequels, they still were able to open up the film series to a younger audience, due in part remaking A New Hope.

The question was always how the story would continue in the next two films, while many including myself were critical that The Force Awakens was just A New Hope remake would have still thought they would continue the tone of The Force Awakens in The Last Jedi and The Rise of Skywalker but with a new director onboard The Last Jedi is a very different Star Wars film.

While non-fans could watch The Force Awakens you needed to do your homework before The Last Jedi and even then needed to go online afterwards to make sense of it. This is similarly the case with The Rise of Skywalker as with both films the director and writers have done interviews to give answers to issues that audiences would have expected to see in the film.

What is most surprising is that ahead of the release of The Rise of Skywalker Lucasfilm released The Mandalorian on Disney+, taking place 5 years after Return of the Jedi and 25 years before The Force Awakens. The Mandalorian could have easily taken the same route as The Force Awakens including many characters featuring in the original trilogy but instead, it feels fresh and original, maybe this is the main reason why even critical reaction to The Rise of Skywalker has been poor as the saw Star Wars could be very different.

Having not seen The Mandalorian as it’s not yet available due to Disney+ not launching in the UK till the end of March still seen pictures of Baby Yoda which do ask the same questions many had about Palpatine in  The Rise Of Skywalker, when did Yoda have a child and who was Yoda’s wife. Yoda died In Return of the Jedi aged 900 but baby Yoda is only 50 so must have been born around the time of the Clone Wars.

I might seem to be overly critical about The Rise of Skywalker but there has been negative comments across the industry including very surprisingly former head of Disney Michael Eisner who Tweeted #RiseofSkywalker is an acceptable film, a lot of stories and fan delights but somewhat emotionless, while #TheMandolorian on @disneyplus establishes show creator @Jon_Favreau  as the new George Lucas which @RobertIger had the foresight to declare.

Many have made a similar comment about seeing The Rise of Skywalker after watching The Mandolorian, which isn’t legally available I the UK until the end of March when Disney+ launches in the UK but many what have seen it illegally have said the same.

If Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker was to hold similar to Star Wars: The Last Jedi its opening was 34% of its total box office it will take about £60m would be over 50% less than Star Wars: The Force Awakens.

With Rise of Skywalker and Cats coming shortly to industry expectations who believed they would help 2019’s UK box office and admissions top 2018 but with the slate of films released in 2019 box office and admissions should have cantered past last year’s records, but even the big guns Avengers: Endgame, Toy Story 4 and The Lion King came short of many expectations.

There are massive questions over this years box office without Star Wars, major Avengers Pixar sequels and major Disney reimaginations how 2020 will compare, there are some massive films and unlike the last feel years, Disney won’t run away with it as it will likely be a three-way battle between Universal, Warner and Disney, the same three studios that are battling it out for streaming supremacy too this year.

The 5 Disney Star Wars films have taken over £330m at the UK box office and the 14 Star Wars films have taken over £500m at the UK box office since 1977 over £750m inflation inflated.

2. Jumanji: The Next Level – £3,638,441   – £21,290,012

Up 24.1% in its third weekend; on Monday estimates Jumanji: The Next Level was third behind Little Women, but they switched places when the final box office was announced with only £59,564 between the two films.

6.7% less than 2017’s Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle took £3,895,450 in its third weekend 25% drop and £26,272,798 71.1% of £36,968,605; its third weekend was the first weekend of January so can’t make direct comparisons.

13th biggest film of 2019 between Rocketman and Once Upon A Time In Hollywood and Sony Pictures 2^nd biggest film of the year after Spider-Man Far From Home and Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

225^th biggest film in the UK between Scooby-Doo and American Beauty (close to Aquaman, Men in Black 3, Arthur Christmas and Hot Fuzz) and 334^th biggest film inflation inflated between The Hangover Part III and Wonder Woman (close to X-Men Origins: Wolverine, Thor: The Dark World, Snatch and Stardust).

Sony Pictures 19th biggest film in the UK between Men in Black 3 and Arthur Christmas and 22^nd Sony Pictures film to take over £20m at the box office since Men in Black in 1997; Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle is their 7^th biggest film in the UK.

The original film opened in February 1996 with £2.1m taking £13.41m; 2002 film Zathura as also marketed as spiritual sequel to Jumanji with the tagline “A new adventure from the world of Jumanji” the film received positive reviews from critics but flopped at the box office opened in February 2006 with £1.31m taking £4.11m.

3. Little Women – £3,578,877   – NE

Took £847,467 from previews on Boxing Day

402^nd biggest opening in the UK between Snow White and the Huntsman and Jack Reacher (close to Baby Driver, Life of Pi, The King’s Speech and American Hustle) and 440^th biggest Fri-Sun opening between Rush Hour 3 and How to Train Your Dragon

531^st biggest inflation inflated between The Perfect Storm and The Ring (close to The Pursuit of Happyness, The Fault in Our Stars, The Woman in Black and Bend It Like Beckham).

38^th biggest Sony Pictures UK opening between Baby Driver and One Direction: This Is Us and 49^th biggest inflation inflated between The Pursuit of Happyness and The Smurfs 2.

Opened -12.61% The Great Gatsby (£4,095,325); -11.81% Darkest Hour (£4,058,356); -11.29% The Impossible (£4,034,470); -9.94% The Favourite (£3,973,975); -9.27 War Horse (£3,944,746); -5.12% The Second-Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (£3,771,852); -4.55% The Theory of Everything (£3,749,293); -1% Life of Pi (£3,610,604);

1.6%+ The King’s Speech (£3,523,102); 3.21%+ American Hustle (£3,467,644); 9.5%+ The Devil Wears Prada (£3,267,580)

Boxing Day is normally the launch date for family films and blockbusters including Enemy of the State, Serendipity, Peter Pan, Cheaper By The Dozen 2, The Producers, Night at the Museum, I am Legend, Alvin And The Chipmunks II, Gulliver’s Travels, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Mission: Impossible: Ghost Protocol, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, A Peanuts Movie, Daddy’s Home and The Greatest Showman

Along with Oscar nominees opening exclusively in Leicester Square ahead of national release in January including Evita, Chicago, The Aviator, American Hustle and The Favourite, so was surprising Sony Pictures brought forward Little Women from January to Boxing Day, but with Cats failing to be the success expected there was room in the marketplace for Little Woman.  

The film has generated strong social media coverage especially on Instagram thanks to Emma Watson having almost 53m followers and as she did with 2017’s has heavily promoted Little Women on Instagram including pictures from premieres and clothes worn in the film.

Emma Watson is, of course, best known for starring in Harry Potter and Beauty and the Beast away from those films had the biggest success with 2011’s My Week with Marilyn (opened £749,819 taking £2,828,862) and 2012’s The Perks of Being a Wallflower (opened £600,771 taking £2.3m).

After directing the Oscar-nominated Lady Bird in 2017 would have expected Greta Gerwig would follow it up with another original film but directing a remake of Little Women 25 years after Gillian Armstrong’s practically perfect film adaptation, it feels like the easy option to remake a classic. Saying that many saw Lady Bird as a remake of the John Hughes classic Pretty in Pink, while Lady Bird received critical acclaim, but the audience reaction was much more polarized.

Lady Bird opened similar amount in February 2018 taking £1,233,508 from 190 screens #3 expanding into 397 screens in its second weekend but still dropped 25% and down to #5 taking £926,935 and £2,623,540 taking £5,079,887 staying in the top 10 for 4 weeks

Lady Bird’s release was the week after BAFTAs and week before Oscars and was the last Oscar nominee released so had far less competition than Little Women has. Sony Pictures had originally dated the film in January but brought it forward to Boxing Day opening days after the US.

While Little Women might have only received two Golden Globes it is expected to do much better with BAFTA and Oscar nominations; Lady Bird received 5 Oscar nominations and 3 BAFTA nominations but won two Golden Globe Awards but no Oscars or BAFTAs.

The 1994 adaptation of Little Women was practically perfect with a cast including with the cast including Winona Ryder, Samantha Mathis, Claire Danes, Kirsten Dunst, Susan Sarandon and Christian Bale to the stunning score by Thomas Newman.

Little Women opened in March 1995 one-week platform £37,326 and then #1 with £1.22m; taking £2.64m inflation inflated (has been 100%+ ticket inflation since 1995) taking £3.4m (£7.2m inflation inflated).

Little Women feels like it’s going to be that award contender that will get nominated but won’t win a despite receiving critical acclaim there are much more deserving films and it wasn’t helped by the lack of men at Academy screenings of the film as they called the fil, a women’s film.

Despite having a strong opening there was a lack of daytime screenings in many Vue cinemas during the week, at my locals was a 10am show and then 6.30pm surely Little Women is the perfect Christmas holiday matinee film while the children’s films played on multiple screens.

Originally Sony had dated Little Women for a mid-January release but after it received critical acclaim and strong buzz brought the film forward to Boxing Day and were helped by the poor reception of Cats last week which gave it a gap in the crowded marketplace.

Had the opened Little Women in January they would have had to compete against many other award contenders including Jojo Rabbit, 1917 (looking like it’s going to be the must-see Oscar nominee), A Hidden Life, Bombshell, Just Mercy,  The Personal History Of David Copperfield, A Beautiful Day In The Neighbourhood, Queen & Slim, Richard Jewell, The Lighthouse and also release Bad Boys For Life in January. Now Little Women has a head start on JoJo Rabbit opening on New Year’s Day.

4. Frozen 2 – £2,092,775   – £46,066,366

Down only 3.5% in its sixth weekend

Opening family film late November gives films much longer legs as they will always get a boost a month after release with Christmas holidays and then play till half-term holiday. This is similar to Universal Pictures have released their summer animated at the end of June, they will get a boost in July and them to play throughout summer holidays.

8^th biggest animated film in the UK between Despicable Me 2 and Toy Story 2 and 19^th biggest inflation inflated between Ice Age III and Despicable Me 3.

4^th biggest Disney animated film in the UK after Toy Story 3, Toy Story 4 and Incredibles 2

51^st biggest film in the UK between The Jungle Book and Harry Potter and The Prisoner Of Azkaban and the 85^th inflation inflated between The Da Vinci Code and Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies.

16^th biggest Disney film in the UK between The Jungle Book and Mary Poppins Returns and 20^th Disney film to take over £40m.

6^th weekend similar to

2017’s Paddington 2 dropped 20% taking £1,357,273 and £31,365,641 #2 73.5% of £42,642,938

2014’s Paddington increased 11% taking £2,834,003 #3 and £30,818,050 81.3% of £37,916,343

2001’s Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone dropped 31% taking £1,640,000 #2 and £50,045,043 78.2% of £63,957,673

But Disney animated films have longer-legged especially those that open in November (and July playing through till September) as they will play through till January.

And comparable to

The Lion King dropping 56% taking £1,093,891 #3 and £69,064,201 90.9% of £75,926,643

Toy Story 4  dropped 7.1% taking £2,525,048 #2 and £51,622,538 78.2% of £66,030,065

2017’s Beauty and the Beast dropped 50% taking £1,312,335 #3 and £68,772,576 94.9% of £72,430,579

2013’s Frozen dropped only 17% taking £2,922,721 17% drop #3 (first week of January) and £30,807,697 71.6% of £42,976,318

Took £1m+ for 8 weeks; top 5 for 9 weeks and top 10 for 10 weeks until the arrival of The Lego Movie in February 2014 (opened with £8,051,140).

While Frozen opened two weeks before Christmas holidays, Frozen 2 was 5 weeks ahead as its release was dated ahead of Thanksgiving in the US

Let It Go video has been seen on YouTube over 1bn times on YouTube and the singalong over 1.9bn times since December 2013; in comparison Into the Unknown video has been seen over 62m titles on YouTube after three weeks.

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Frozen took £42,976,318 was the 10th biggest animated film; in 2013 Frozen was the 5th biggest animated film after Toy Story 3, Shrek 2, Despicable Me 2 and Toy Story 2.

Into the Unknown is down #62 in the UK singles chart but while the soundtrack album for Frozen is #12 in its 207th week on release Frozen 2 soundtrack isn’t in the soundtrack chart. Believe you can chart a film’s popularity with its soundtrack sales as while people will rush out to see the film over opening weekend soundtrack sales are steadier, seen by The Greatest Showman soundtrack #2 in the chart still after 2 years.

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5. Cats – £1,907,831  – £7,286,210

Down 40.5% in its second weekend; despite so much negativity surrounding Cats the film didn’t drop as much as expected, this is because during Christmas holidays almost any film, can find an audience as people will go to the cinema much more often over the two weeks of Christmas holidays than any other time of the year.

Despite all the negativity surrounding Cats, it was still 5^th on Thursday despite Jojo Rabbit and The Gentlemen opening on Wednesday.

Had the 411^th biggest second weekend in the UK between Moana and A Quiet Place (close to Chicago, Pride and Prejudice, Lilo & Stitch and The Devil Wears Prada) and 565^th biggest second-weekend inflation inflated between Spice World and A Quiet Place 9close to Valentine’s Day, The Second-Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Meet the Parents and Moana).

For all the negativity that surrounded Cats, the film has held well in its second weekend, of course, Cats is far from the success of either Les Miserables of The Greatest Showman but it was never likely to be as the stage show was much more of an acquired taste and wasn’t as commercial as the A list cast was selling it to be.

For the film to drop only 41% despite Little Women and Frozen also targetting female audiences shows that there is an audience I the UK for the film, saying that with Christmas holidays over it will drop out the charts very quickly.

As musical disasters go and there have been many along the way from A Chorus Line to The Producers Cats has done ok, especially after all the negative buzz it has had to deal with since the first trailer was released in July. The problem with the casting is it targeted a much younger female demographic who probably haven’t seen the stage show so didn’t know what they were going to get.

Cats has taken more than Muppets Most Wanted and will likely take more than Phantom of the Opera, One Direction: This Is Us and Step Up 3.

Universal made two more massive mistakes rushing out the trailer with The Lion King in July with incomplete effects and not opening it on Christmas Day in the US which has split its global release so all the negativity received over the past week will harm its international expansion this weekend.

With the strong slate of films, Universal Pictures have in 2020 Cats will quickly be forgotten with No Time To Die, Fast & Furious 9, Minions 2, Legally Blonde 3,  A Promising Young Woman, Candyman, Emma, Halloween Kills and Last Night in Soho they are likely to be much closer to Disney than they have been since 2015.

UK box office in detail

This weekend’s top 10 box office took £23,799,781 down 22.9% from last weekend £30,884,264

The weekend admissions 3,169,079 down 22.9% from last weekend 4,112,419

7 films opened at weekend taking (£6,222,945); Little Women 57.5% (£3,578,877); Spies in Disguise 23.9 (£1,487,638); Playing With Fire 12.2% (£762,850; remaining 4 films shared 6.3% (£393,580);

Top three took 69.4% (£16,528,558) of the top 10; Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 39.1%; Jumanji: The Next Level 15.2% (£3,638,441); (£9,311,240); Little Women 15.1% (£3,578,877)

Up 12.9% from 2018: (£21,066,980); Bumblebee (£5,103,382); Holmes & Watson (£1,418,030); #1 Mary Poppins Returns £7,441,687 2nd week 740 screens 10% drop (35.3% of the top 10)

Down 2.9% from 2017: (£24,534,387); The Greatest Showman (£4,754,049); #1 Star Wars: The Last Jedi £7,975,174 3^rd week 691 screens 22% drop (32.5% of top 10)

Up 90.8% from 2016: (£12,473,395); Passengers (£2,418,976); Ballerina (£1,094,317); It’s a Wonderful Life (Re-release) (£130,016); #1 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story £5,652,730 2^nd week 680 screens 67% drop(45.3% of the top 10)

Up 35.8% from 2015; (£17,525,083); Star Wars: The Force Awakens (£34,011,849); Sisters (£1,215,368); #1 Star Wars: The Force Awakens £10,164,805 2^nd week 665 screens 70% drop (58% of top 10)

Up 45.3% from 2014: (£16,382,437); Exodus: Gods and Kings (£2,607,453); Annie (£2,310,453); Unbroken (£656,991); Big Eyes (£135,582); #1 The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies £4,249,226 3^rd 601 screens 21% drop (25.9% of top 10)

Up 31.2% from 2013: (£18,132,029); The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (£2,235,612); 47 Ronin (£1,415,252); All Is Lost (£231,595); #1 The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug £5,450,824 3^rd week 589 screens 43% drop (30.1% of top 10)

Up 16.8% from 2012 (£20,367,014); Jack Reacher (£3,575,066); Parental Guidance (£1,293,400); Midnight’s Children (£101,725); Safety Not Guaranteed (£33,028); #1 The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey £6,850,728 3^rd week 596 screens up 15% (33.6% of top 10)

Up 230.1% from 2011 (£7,210,571); no new releases; #1 Arthur Christmas £2,047,463 7^th weekend up 52% 549 screens (28.4% of top 10)

Up 297.9% from 2010: (£5,980,170); Little Fockers (£3,035,717); Arthur and the Great Adventure (£83,875); #1 Little Fockers £3,035,717 1^st week 488 screens (50.7% of top 10)

n/a from 2009;

n/a from 2008;

Up 11.9% from 2007: (£21,258,964); I am Legend (£11,009,365); Balls of Fury (£638,761); The Kite Runner (£468,592); Closing the Ring (£23,339); #1 I am Legend £11,009,365 1^st week 440 screens (51.8% of top 10)

Up 196.7% from 2006; (£8,021,487); Flags of Our Fathers (£97,765); #1 Happy Feet £2,048,266 3^rd week 475 screens 1% up (25.5% of top 10)

Up 299.3% from 2005 (£5,961,400); No new releases; #1 The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe £2,843,353 3^rd week 2^nd 1 over 3 weeks 525 screens 41% drop (47.7% of top 10)

Up 640.2% from 2004 (£3,180,924); National Treasure (£312,784); House of Flying Daggers (£251,498); The Aviator (platform) (£23,835); #1 The Polar Express 4^th week 1^st #1 41% drop 452 screens (21.6% of top 10)

n/a from 2003;

Up 79.5% from 2002 (£13,253,300); Chicago (platform) (£113,386); Blood Work (£61,053); #1 Lord of the Rings: Two Towers £8,177,801 2^nd week 499 screens 37% (61.7% of top 10)

Up 66.6% from 2001 (£14,285,925); The Mean Machine (£1,573,594); Serendipity (£635,042); #1 The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Rings £7,825,995 2^nd week 470 screens 29% drop (54.8% of top 10);

Next weekend in 2018: (£17,185,874); The Favourite (£3,973,975); Andre Rieu’s 2019 New Year Concert from Sydney (£1,745,941); Welcome to Marwen (£242,156); Life Itself (£54,131); #1 Mary Poppins Returns £4,444,023 3^rd week #1 718 screens 40% drop (25.8% of top 10)

Also Opened

• Spies in Disguise – 20th Century Fox

Opened with £1,487,638 includes £268,529 from previews

Disappointing opening but marketplace was crowded with family films and Spies in Disguise opening with Playing With Fire were likely to cannibalize each other while audiences performed to watch the likes of Jumanji and Frozen 2.

Spies in Disguise release date had moved around several times before Disney dated it for December and would have benefited opening in a less competitive month as it was previously dated in September or January where it would have had much less competition.

Spies in Disguise was the 13th Blue Sky Studios animated film released by 20th Century Fox since Ice Age in 2002 taking almost £200m at the UK box office

Spies in Disguise received positive reviews (75% Rotten Tomatoes) the spy spoof comedy had similarities with Dreamworks Animation’s Flushed Away opened with £3,106,874 in 2006 (£4,606,084 inflation inflated) and £10,749,860 (£15,937,164 inflation inflated).

• Playing With Fire – Paramount Pictures

Opened with £762,850 including £142,131 previews

Paramount Pictures have had success with family comedies recently, but Playing with Fire opened with less than half of these other films.

2019’s Instant Family opened with £2,469,853 taking £10,459,989

2017’s Daddy’s Home opened with £4,919,051 taking £14,296,957

2015’s Daddy’s Home opened with £1,628,219 taking £16,742,333

John Cena has been slowly following in Dwayne Johnson footsteps starring in comedies Daddy’s Home, Daddy’s Home 2, Blockers (opened with £1,349,627 taking £4,239,132) and Fighting with My Family (opened with £2,022,174 taking £5,837,684)and Transformers prequel Bumblebee (opened with £5,103,382 taking £11,643,637). This year stars in Dolittle and Fast & Furious 9 and then The Suicide Squad in 2021 which could see him crossover into possibly similar action star was Dwayne Johnson.

Christmas is a crazily time for cinemagoing highlighted by 2016’s Monster Trucks opening with £1,726,229 taking £3,255,346 despite receiving terrible reviews.

UK Box Office Top 10

US Box office

• Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker – Disney

Dropped 59.4% in its second weekend taking $72.38m and $362.18m

Was tracking to take upwards of $90m in its second weekend  

After opening with 19.3% less than The Last Jedi ($177,383,864 Vs $220,009,584) many have said that The Rise of Skywalker is holding similar in its second weekend taking similar $71.56m, but need to remember The Rise of Skywalker first week included Christmas Day but Christmas Day was The Last Jedi’s 8^th day of release having opened 5 days earlier. So while Rise of Skywalker has taken similar box office after 10 days it will see a much bigger drop off over the next week, while many still believe it will take over $600m at the box office, this will all depend on how it does over this coming weekend and if it drops less than 30% in its third weekend.

Disney might have 14 of the top 20 biggest openings in the US but they also now have 10 of the 11 members of the $100m losers club, with three new members this year Avengers: Endgame, The Lion King and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker.

Despite these films having huge opening and critical acclaim they still don’t have the legs, the legs are vital for films like Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker as Disney demanded up to 70% of the box office for the film with four-week booking in the main screens.

The industry continues to make excuses for Disney films underperforming while critical of rival studios when they underperform, but surely Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker not coming close to the box office of Star Wars: The Force Awakens after the hype and media coverage Star Wars generates compared to Dark Phoenix or Terminator: Dark Fate flopping predictably at the box office.

Received the second-lowest Rotten Tomatoes film of a Star Wars film, but up to its 2012 3D re-release, The Phantom Menace had a much higher Rotten Tomatoes score and received positive reviews when it was first released in 1999.

The Force Awakens has 93% score and The Last Jedi‘s 91% and both received A CinemaScore.

2015’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens opened with $247.96m  (third biggest opening) 26.4% of $936.66m

2017’s Star Wars: The Last Jedi opened $220.01m (fourth-biggest opening) 35.4% of $620.18m

Star Wars: The Force Awakens opened with $528m worldwide (4th biggest WW) 25.6% of its $2.068bn total

Star Wars; The Last Jedi opened with $450.8m worldwide (8th biggest WW) 33.8% of its $1.332bn total.

45^th biggest film in the US between The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King and Spider-Man 2

7^th biggest 2019 film in the US between Spider-Man: Far From Home and Aladdin  

127^th biggest film inflation inflated between My Big Fat Greek Wedding and The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1

24th biggest Disney film in the US between Finding Nemo and The Jungle Book.

Disney took $13.2bn worldwide in 2019 ($4.32bn in the US and $8.823m internationally), this was expected with their slate of films released in the year as all previous instalments took similar amounts so could possibly think only $13bn, not more?

After Avengers: Endgame ($2.798bn WW $858.4m US/$1.94bn international) opens with $1.2bn worldwide surely $3bn= must have been expected, but instead of cantering past Avatar’s 10-year-old record of the biggest film worldwide it stumbled past only due to a re-release. Similarly To Story 4 ($1.07bn WW $434m US/$640.1m international) took only $7m more than Toy Story 3 despite a 9-year gap and over 50% ticket inflation While many believed The Lion King ($1.65bn WW $543.6m US/$1.11bn international) would be the biggest film of the year and one of the biggest films ever as the original animated was so beloved and took almost $1bn 25 years ago, so surely with the massive hype The Lion King should have taken at least $2bn.

The only real “surprise” was Aladdin ($1.05bn WW $355.6m US/$695.4m international), more so the surprise that despite mixed reviews it surprisingly had longer legs than other reimaginations this year, while Dumbo ($353.2m WW $114.8m US/ $238.4m international) and Maleficent: Mistress Of Evil ($490.7m WW, $113.4m US/$377.3m  international) underperformed, as if you make properties expectations are much higher so while they might not seem like disappointments compared with other films they are when they are compared with other Disney releases.

The big question is what next, while 2019 was always going to be a record-breaking year for Disney, 2020  has felt soft in comparisons without major Avengers Star Wars, Pixar sequels and a smaller reimagination made for China as the original animated Mulan wasn’t a huge hit in the US. Instead, they have two original Pixar films competing against Trolls Word Tour and Minions 2, two smaller Marvel films against Birds of Prey and Wonder Woman 1984, one original animated film and two original live-action films, which has been something of an Achilles heel for the studio ever since they moved into the properties business. This slate of films will probably take less than half of Disney’s 2019 total, while also see their rivals perform much stronger, so will be questions over why 2020- was soft, were they too focused on the 20^th Century Fox acquisition and Disney+?

After a very disappointing 2019 (taking $2.03bn WW $563.5m US/ $1.46bn internationally) 20^th Century Fox slate is vastly improved in 2020 which could help fill the gap shortfall from Disney including Bob’s Burgers, Death on the Nile, Deep Water, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie, Free Guy, The King’s Man, The Woman in the Window and West Side Story.

Took $94.3m internationally from 73 territories and $363m total internationally and $724.8m worldwide; UK $51.4m; Germany $44.1m; France $34.7m; Japan $29.2m; Australia $21.2m; China $17.4m; Spain $14.6m; Mexico $12.4m; Italy $11.8m; Brazil $9.6m; Russia $8.3m; Sweden $7.5m

10^th biggest 2019 film worldwide between Fast & Furious Presents Hobbs & Shaw and How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World; 109^th biggest film worldwide between Monsters University and The Matrix Reloaded and 37^th biggest Disney film worldwide between Monsters University and Up.  

• Little Women – Sony Pictures

Opened with $16.89m and $29.22m over 5 days since Christmas Day; received critical acclaim (95% Rotten Tomatoes) and A- CinemaScore

Was tracking to open with $19m-$35m over 5-day Christmas weekend

Hard to compare with 1994’s Little Women opening #2 with $2.41m (behind Streetfighter opening with $6.85m) taking $46.13m ($105m inflation inflated)

The posters released in October received poor reaction on social media as they made the film look like a millennial rom-com and questioned why Timothée Chalamet has his own separate poster along with the female actresses as the film is about women.

It almost feels like the studio felt they still needed to promote Timothée Chalamet role in the film as they felt Saoirse Ronan, Emma Watson and Florence Pugh weren’t strong enough to promote the film.

Word of mouth despite the comments from men saying it was a woman’s film has been very positive including a Tweet from Ryan Reynolds (a man) Just saw @LittleWomen which I’ll probably see a dozen times. It’s completely stunning and doctors should prescribe it. Go go go.

Lady Bird opened on limited release in 2017 taking five weeks to expand in over 1,000 screens while performing strongly on platform didn’t do as well on a wide release as despite critical acclaim audience reaction was much more mixed.

Opened with $6.3m from 2 territories; the UK $4.6m; Spain $1.6m.

• Jumanji: The Next Level – Sony Pictures

Up 33.2% in its third weekend taking $35.31m and $175.46m

Jumanji: The Next Level took similar to Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle in its third weekend but its total is 28.5% less if Jumanji: The Next Level continues to hold as it is currently will take about $290m.

2017’s Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle dropped 25.6% in its third weekend taking $37.23m and $245.6m 60.7% of $404.51m and $962.07m worldwide

As with Welcome to the Jungle with The Last Jedi The Next Level is the perfect alternative to Rise of Skywalker as it’s a fun popcorn movie perfect for Christmas and two years later The Next Leve has performed similarly with The Rise of Skywalker.

Dwayne Johnson’s 43 films have taken $4.23bn in the US and $7.68bn internationally almost $12bn worldwide.

Social media is massive for Jumanji: The Next Level with a score of 788.4m compared to 154.9m for a normal family film due to Dwayne Johnson (164m followers) and Kevin Hart (83m followers) with a reach of 568m by its opening weekend. Next Level has 130.4m Facebook fans, 21.9m Facebook video views, 78.7m Twitter followers, 264.3m YouTube views and 293.1m Instagram followers.

11^th biggest film of 2019 in the US between It: Chapter Two and US; 246^th biggest film in the US between The Fugitive and The Revenant; 553^rd biggest inflation inflated film between Juno and Risky Business and 20^th biggest Sony Pictures film between Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse 3D and Men in Black 3.

Took $61.6m from 62 territories and $296m total and $472m worldwide; China $41m; UK $27.9m; France $18.3m; Russia $14.6m; Indonesia $14.4m; Germany $14.2m; Mexico $13.5m; Malaysia $12.2m; Australia $9.6m; India $8.6m

14^th biggest film worldwide in 2019 between How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World and Maleficent: Mistress of Evil; 229^th biggest film worldwide between Troy and Home Alone and 24^th biggest Sony Pictures film worldwide between Angels & Demons and Hotel Transylvania 2.

• Spies in Disguise – 20th Century Fox

Opened with $13.35m and $22.24m over 5 days since Christmas Day; received positive reviews (72% Rotten Tomatoes) and A- CinemaScore.

Will Smith previously voiced 2004’s Shark Tale opening with $57.6m taking $160.86m in the US and $363.53m but this was when Will Smith was a strong box office success starring in Men In Black 2, Bad Boys 2. I, Robot and Hitch.

Similar to 2006’s Flushed Away which opened with $18.81m taking $64.66m in the US and $178.12m worldwide.

Opened with $16m from 32 territories and $38.1m worldwide; Mexico $2.3m; France $2.2m; UK $1.9m; Germany $1.2m; Spain $1m expands further this weekend and In January internationally.

• Cats – Universal Pictures

Dropped 27% in its second weekend taking $4.82m and $17.81m

Universal Pictures have had strong success over the last decade with Les Miserables and Mamma Mia but some of the biggest and greatest musicals didn’t work in cinemas including 1985’s A Chorus taking only $14.2m; 2005’s Rent taking $29m; 2009’s Nine taking $20m and 2012’s Rock of Ages taking $59m.

Previous films based on Andrew Lloyd Webber’s musicals including 1996’s Evita taking $50m and 2004’s The Phantom of the Opera taking $51m were also unsuccessful in the US, but they performed much better internationally.

Will the disappointing performance have any impact on STX currently developing an animated film of Joseph and the Amazing Technicolor Dreamcoat.   

Cats could lose up to $100m if the film takes $100m worldwide ($40m US and $60m internationally) as the film, had a $90m budget and $115m spent on global marketing. Over recent years 2011’s Les Miserables took $441.8m WW; 2017’s The Greatest Showman $435m WW, and 2018’s Bohemian Rhapsody $903.6m but Cats was never going to perform like these musicals as despite it’s a list cast the musical is an acquired taste.

Was surprising Universal Pictures opted to open the film in the US against Star Wars as would have probably been better to open on Christmas Day, likewise after all the negativity surrounding the film since the first trailer was released in July surely It should have opened globally day and date?

Global day and date have become the norm for almost every film over the last decade but then studio strangely seem to split release dates of many films that would suffer from splitting as was recently the case with Terminator: Dark Fate and Doctor Sleep opting to open internationally early. Surely with the negativity surrounding Cats with the trailer, the film should open globally over Christmas?

Took $13.6m from 38 international territories and $38.4m worldwide;  

• Frozen 2 – Disney

Up 27.1% in its sixth weekend taking $16.89m and $421.68m

2013’s Frozen dropped 13% taking $19.64m and $192.03m 47.9% of $400.73m; stayed in the top 10 for 17 weeks taking $1m+ for 17 weeks

2013’s Frozen took $1.274bn worldwide and in 2013 Frozen overtook Toy Story 3 to become the highest-grossing animated film of all time but was surpassed this year by The Lion King reimagination.

6^th biggest 2019 film in the US between Spider-Man: Far From Home and Aladdin

8^th biggest animated film between Frozen and Finding Nemo

40^th biggest film in the US between Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II and 22^nd biggest Disney film between Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 and Finding Nemo; 110^th biggest inflation inflated between Rocky III and Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix.

Took $42.2m from 53 territories and $796.3m international and $1,217bn worldwide; China $117.1m; Korea $93.8m; Japan $87.4m; UK $59.8m; Germany $50.5m; France $46.7m; Russia $29.4m; Mexico $26.7m; Australia $21.4m; Italy $20.7m; Spain $20.3m.

Frozen 2 is the 4th biggest animated film worldwide, having passed Despicable Me 3 ($1.035bn), Toy Story 3 ($1.067bn) and Toy Story 4 ($1.074bn).

Frozen 2 is Disney’s 6^th film to take over $1bn worldwide in 2019 after Avengers: Endgame, The Lion King, Captain Marvel, Toy Story 4 and Aladdin and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker will make it 7 shortly.

The big question is how many $1bn+ film will Disney get next year without Avengers films, Pixar sequels, the biggest Disney reimaginations and Star Wars, as their slate of two original Pixar films, two smaller MCU, one reimagination of Disney animated film which wasn’t a huge success originally and two original films would be much more impressive if they were also to take $1bn+ each.

8^th biggest 2019 film worldwide Aladdin and Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw

9^th biggest 2019 film, internationally between Aladdin and Toy Story 4 and 42^nd biggest film internationally between Spectre and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I.

8^th biggest animated film worldwide between Despicable Me 3 and Finding Dory

40^th biggest film worldwide between Despicable Me 3 and Finding Dory

22^nd biggest Disney film worldwide between Zootopia and Finding Dory.

• Uncut Gems – A24

Up 3,867% adding 2,343 screens taking $9.57m and $21.04m; received positive (93% Rotten Tomatoes) and Adam Sandler’s performance has been heralded as one of his best, but cinemagoers have mixed opinions of the film giving it a C+ CinemaScore, so will be interesting to see how it holds over coming weeks.

The film will be released in selective cinemas in the UK on January 10^th and on Netflix who acquired internuptial rights. The film was the surprise film at the London Film Festival receiving a mixed reaction.

• Bombshell – Lionsgate

Down 6% in its third weekend taking $4.81m and $15.78m

After the film received two Golden Globe nominations for Best Actress Drama Charlize Theron and Best Supporting Actress Margot Robbie and three Screen Actors Guild Awards nominations for Best Actress Charlize Theron and Best  Supporting Actress Margot Robbie and Nicole Kidman.

After strong marketing would have expected Bombshell to perform stronger, but maybe it will have longer legs once the Christmas films have dropped off as the marketplace is very crowded, saying that with 1917 and Just Mercy expanding early January it’s not going to get less crowded anytime soon.

Opening similar to 2018’s Vice opened with $4.78m taking $57.83m

Was surprising Lionsgate opted to expand this weekend rather than Christmas Day as these films normally expand over Christmas Day being an alternative to the blockbusters?

 

• Jojo Rabbit – Fox Searchlight

Dropped 22 screens down to 208 in its 11th weekend up 33% drop taking $252,978 and $20.92m

JoJo Rabbit is holding similar to last years The Favourite but after four strong weekends dropped for the fourth weekend, there was always the concern that JoJo Rabbit would repeat similar mistakes of expanding for too wide too quickly and then lose those screens as it has done.

So many award contenders open ion platform strongly but then studio will expand the film far too quickly as was the case with JoJo Rabbit as the film was too quirky for mainstream audiences to open wide, it needed award recognition and in January boosted by Golden Globes and Oscar nominations it will expand again as many other Fox Searchlight films have done previously.

Fox Searchlight has had much successful Oscar winners that also started on platform, but they had a much wider target demographic before opening (Juno, Slumdog Millionaire, Black Swan, The Descendants, Sideways and The Full Monty) JoJo Rabbit’s not yet that must-see Oscar contender receiving polarised critical reaction.

On platform

• 1917 – Universal Pictures

Opened with $576,216 from 11 screens (expands January 10^th)

Received critical acclaim (90% Rotten Tomatoes)

Away from James Bond Spectre and Skyfall, Sam Mendes also directed 2009’s Away We Go (opened on platform 4 screens $130,411/ $1,709,313 wide taking $9,430,988), 2008’s Revolutionary Road (opened on platform 3 screens $189,911/$5,185,146 wide taking $22,877,808),  2002’s Jarhead (opened with $27,726,210 taking $62,647,540), 2002’s Road to Perdition (opened with $22,079,481 taking $104,054,514) and its 20 years ago since Sam Mendes directed the Oscar-winning American Beauty (opened on platform 11 screens $861,531/ $9,505,313 wide taking $130,058,047).

1998’s Saving Private Ryan opened with $30,576,104 taking $216,118,802 and $481,840,909 worldwide

1998’s The Thin Red Line opened on platform 5 screens taking $282,534/$9,765,762 wide taking $36,257,435 and $98,126,565 worldwide

2011’s War Horse opened with $7,515,402 taking $79,883,359 and $177,584,879 worldwide

2017’s Dunkirk opened with $50,513,488 taking $188,045,546 and $525,245,546 worldwide

• Just Mercy – Warner Bros

Opened with $109,000 from 4 screens (expands January 10th)

Received critical acclaim (81% Rotten Tomatoes)

Over the years set on death row have been many films either based on true stories or fictional stories including 1995’s Dead Man Walking and Just Cause, 1996’s Last Dance, A Time to Kill, and The Chamber, 1999’s The Green Mile and True Crime and 2003’s The Life of David Gale.

UK Box Office Predictions

 

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker will hold #1 for the third weekend but will have a bigger drop off than either The Force Awakens or The Last Jedi. (The Force Awakens increased by 1.3% in its third weekend and The Last Jedi dropped 21.5%) this is due to The Rise of Skywalker opening almost a week after the other two films which means its third weekend is the first weekend of January at the end of the Christmas holidays, compared to the last weekend of December.

Third weekends

In 2016 (Friday New Years Day) Star Wars: The Force Awakens took £10,304,562 )down 1%) with Joy opening £1,519,936 and The Danish Girl with £1,376,191 while Daddy’s Home held strongly #2 with £2,908,358 as Jumanji: The Next Level will do this time.

In 2017 (Friday was New Year’s Eve) Star Wars: The Last Jedi took £7,975,174 (down 22%) with The Greatest Showman opening with £4,754,049 and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle holding strongly #2 with £5,210,725.

The Rise of Skywalker will drop about 50% taking £4.5m-£6m with Jumanji: The Next Level and Little Women again battling it out for second, while Little Women will hold better will have a bigger decline due to opening having previews and also having competition from JoJo Rabbit; The Rise of Skywalker will be moving close to taking £50m at the box office as Frozen 2 will also.

With the weekend being the end of the school holidays and with Little Women likely to hold well JoJo Rabbit could struggle which is surprising as Fox Searchlight has strong success opening their major Oscar contender the first weekend of the year.

2019’s The Favourite opened with £3,973,975 taking £16,965,411

2018’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri opened with £2,361,782  taking £15,238,741

2018’s The Shape of Water opened with £2,466,217 taking £7,312,082

2015’s Birdman opened with £1,524,667 taking £5,044,674

Ahead of release JoJo Rabbit was seen as an Oscar favourite but has been eclipsed by many other films including 1917, The Irishman, Marriage Story and Bombshell.

Guy Ritchie’s the Gentlemen from reviews is a return to form receiving positive reviews and strong word of mouth but more likely to open closer to 1998’s Lock, Stock And Two Smoking Barrels (£941,638 taking £11,399,953) and 2004’s Layer Cake (£1,090,561 taking £4,447,859) than 2000’s Snatch (£3,180,002 taking £12,137,698); on Wednesday opened #4 but wasn’t in the top 5 on Thursday, that isn’t a surprise as its still school holidays.

There will likely be at least 7 films take £1m+. Also opening on Saturday is Event Cinema’s Andre Rieu: 70 Years Young, his contents over the last few years have been one of the best performings and with £20+ tickets screening in 400+ cinemas will likely do similar again.

Event Cinema had a record-breaking year at the UK box office in 2019 but its no wonder when prices are almost 250% more than regular prices. My local Vue has recently reduced prices to £6.74 but tickets for Andre Rieu: 70 Years Young are £23.24. Event Cinema as Secret Cinema is the greatest addition to cinema, but it shouldn’t be included within the regular cinema box office as it just artificial inflated box office and admissions. If 2019 does manage to squeeze past 2018 levels it won’t be because of Avengers: Endgame or The Lion King it will be due to Secret Cinema and Event Cinema as it was last year.

January for many years has been a very strong month as it has the Christmas holdovers and then the Oscar contenders, also helped by the cold weather; January is also a very crowded month with over 50 films released with about a quarter of them Oscar/BAFTA contender which does also see these films often cannibalize themselves, as while 1917 will be the must-see film others including A Beautiful Day In The Neighbourhood, Queen & Slim, Richard Jewell, The Lighthouse, Just Mercy, Bombshell and A Hidden Life will struggle, those last three films opening against each other the week after 1917 on January 17^th.

Opening in UK Next Week

• 1917– eOne

Epic war film starring George MacKay, Dean-Charles Chapman, Mark Strong, Andrew Scott, Richard Madden, Claire Duburcq, Colin Firth, and Benedict Cumberbatch and directed by Sam Mendes; receiving 3 Golden Globe nominations (Best Film, Best Director and Best Original Score by Thomas Newman).

Royal Film Performance on December 4th was the films world premiere and the film received universal critical acclaim (92% Rotten Tomatoes) (Oscar nominations announced on January 13th)

The film was filmed to look like it was shot in one shot by cinematographer Roger Deakins

Away from James Bond Spectre and Skyfall, Sam Mendes also directed 2009’s Revolutionary Road (opened £1,013,548 taking £2,751,902; 2006’s Jarhead (opened £1,927,987 taking £5,155,997; 2002’s Road to Perdition (opened £1,318,382 taking £6,471,752 and its 20 years ago since Sam Mendes directed the Oscar-winning American Beauty opened £2,836,678 taking £21,261,601

1998’s Saving Private Ryan opened £2,704,522 taking £18,740,016 ($481,840,909 worldwide)

1999’s The Thin Red Line opened £1,134,952 taking £3,983,932

2012’s War Horse opened £3,944,746 taking £18,574,862

2017’s Dunkirk opened £10,023,720 taking £56,585,035

Every year there is one must-see Oscar nominee and 1917 with the huge awareness and likely BAFTA and Oscar nominations will likely be 2020’s.

Over recent years many of these have been released over the first two weeks of January including Slumdog Millionaire (£1,827,457), The Kings Speech (£3,523,102), 12 Years A Slave (£2,511,349), Birdman (£1,524,667) and Darkest Hour (£4,058,356). As it gives them to distance from Christmas releases and is close to BAFTA and Oscar nominations being revealed.

• Seberg – Universal Pictures

Political thriller starring Kristen Stewart, Jack O’Connell, Margaret Qualley, Zazie Beetz, Anthony Mackie and Vince Vaughn and directed by Benedict Andrews; had a world premiere at the Venice Film Festival receiving mixed reviews (44% Rotten Tomatoes) and was released in the US in December by Amazon Studios.

Opening in US Next Week

• Like A Boss – Paramount Pictures

Comedy starring Tiffany Haddish, Rose Byrne, Jennifer Coolidge, Billy Porter, and Salma Hayek and directed by Miguel Arteta.

Was originally called Limited Partners and set for release in June 2019, for a film to be delayed to January feels like the studio has little faith in the film dumping it out in early January.

Since Tiffany Haddish’s breakthrough role in 2017 starring in Girls Trip with the exception of Night School all of her films have failed to be as successful including vocally in The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part, The Secret Life of Pets 2, The Angry Birds Movie 2 and The Kitchen.

• Underwater – 20^th Century Fox

Sci-fi horror starring stars Kristen Stewart, Vincent Cassel, Jessica Henwick, John Gallagher Jr., Mamoudou Athie, and T.J. Miller and directed by William Eubank. Very little marketing has been seen for this film yet.