- Sonic The Hedgehog 3 £11,760,314 – NE
Includes £7,741,017 (65.7%) from 7 days of previews.
Took £1.28m 10.88% Friday; £1.44m 12.24% Saturday; £1.31m 11.14% Sunday; £1.33m Monday.
78th biggest opening between Spider-Man 3 and Transformers: Age of Extinction (close to Jurassic World Dominion, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Minions and Star Wars: Attack of the Clones) and 130th inflated opening between Despicable Me 3 and King Kong (close to Night at the Museum, Jurassic Park, Men In Black 2 and The Golden Compass).
4th biggest 2024 opening between Moana 2 and Inside Out 2 (close to Wicked, Paddington In Peru, Dune: Part 2 and Gladiator 2)
Removing £7.73m taken over 7 days of previews Sonic The Hedgehog 3 opened with £4.03m Fri-Sun; Fri £190k; Sat £2.36m; Sun £1.72m; Mon £1.5m; Tues £1.18m; Weds 7k (Christmas Day); Thurs £710k; Fri £1.28m; Sat £1.44m; Sun £1.31m.
2020’s Sonic The Hedgehog opened £4,733,768 #1 619 screens taking £18,986,844 over 5 weeks before COVID lockdown
2022’s Sonic The Hedgehog 2 opened £4,986,334 #1 650 screens; The Bad Guys opened #2 £2,279,074; taking £26,182,692
Its Paramount Picture sixth different #1 film in 2024 across 9 weeks after Mean Girls, Bob Marley: One Love, IF, Transformers One and Gladiator II up from 3 in 2023 Scream VI, Dungeons And Dragons and Mission Impossible 7.
Taking 65% of its opening from previews means Sonic 3 will drop about 70% in its second weekend; had it opened last weekend would have probably been #1 for two weeks.
- 2. Mufasa £4,244,612 – £12,613,098
Dropped 3.9% in its second weekend.
£1.3m 30.6% (-11.6% £1.5m) Friday; £1.51m 35.6% (+3.4% £1.46m) Sat; £1.4m 33.8% (-10.6% £1.4m Sun; £1.37m Monday
141st biggest second weekend between Spider-Man and Suicide Squad (close to Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, Jurassic Park, A Bug’s Life and Finding Dory) and 256th inflated second weekend between Finding Dory and The Muppets (close to Who Framed Roger Rabbit, Hook, High School Musical 3 and Elf)
6th biggest 2024 second weekend between Beetlejuice 2 and Kung Fu Panda 4 (close to Dune: Part 2, Despicable Me 4, It Ends with Us and Migration)
Took 60.2% less in its second weekend than 2019’s The Lion King opened £10,660,287; 2nd biggest film of 2019 behind Avengers: Endgame £88,688,477.
1994’s The Lion King up 3.8% £2,554,781/£6,265,109 and £6,505,591 28.9% of £22,525,524/£55,239,516
The majority of Disney’s recent reimaginations have opened strongly, but the sequels have failed to match their success. 2013’s Maleficent dropped 60.4% £2,605,230 and £11,056,088 56.8% of £19,453,353; Sequel 2019’s Maleficent: Mistress Of Evil dropped 34.5% £2,159,307 and £7,564,005 51.2% of £14,773,607; 2010’s Alice in Wonderland dropped 30.4% £7,343,506/£9,836,595 and £22,749,115 53.9% of £42,169,542/£56,485,924; sequel 2016’s Alice Through The Looking Glass dropped 39.3% £1,352,548 and £7,003,004 70.6% of £9,915,284.
My issue with Mufasa: The Lion King as was the case with the 2019 reimagination and all of Disney’s reimaginations of their animated films is they were perfect films without the photorealistic gimmickry. The 2D animated film is still one of the best animated films 30 years later with a stunning song by Elton John.
These films are a licence to print money for Disney as they know the fans of the original film will bring their children to see these films as their parents brought them to see the originals as their parents took them to see the reissues. That said as the sequels are telling a new story audiences aren’t as interested to see them as they don’t have the nostalgia factor.
The first reimagination was a photorealistic almost scene-by-scene remake of the hugely popular original animated film, while the sequel was similar to Disney’s straight-to-video sequels they made in the 90s, Disney made 1998’s The Lion King II: Simba’s Pride, it sold over 15m copies, in 2005 was one of the top-selling direct-to-video releases of all time taking $464.5m worldwide.
The problem with many prequels is they undermine a lot of what made the original film so great, Mufasa, in the original animated film it was Simba’s birthright to be king after Simba’s death due to ancestry but in Mufasa, he only became king by popularity.
The majority of prequels are unnecessary telling stories few want to know about; they are just cynical money grabs despite most of them coming far short of the film it leads into.
For decades Disney would re-release their classic animation films to new generations (The Little Mermaid was re-released in the summer of 1998 opening £234,783 (£470,731 inflated) taking £1,768,481 (£3,545,739 inflated) always successful in cinemas and the 80s and 90s, (in the early 80s re-releases of animated classics including The Jungle Book and Snow White were the top 3 biggest films of the year). The cinema re-release would be followed by a home video release available for a limited time. In the 90s and 00s, Disney made direct-to-video sequels to their classic animated films.
These films are called live-action, but they are photo-realistic animation, while looking stunning feels emotionless unlike 2D animation which is a far more emotional experience; The Lion King when Mufasa dies, or when The Iron Giant sacrifices himself to protect everyone on Earth as his hero Superman would do. These moments bring tears to the audience young and old as seen in a Ted Lasso episode.
While it makes these animated films very rewatchable, have seen these animated films countless times reimaginations aren’t as rewatchable, but they have done their job as hype brings in the audience and they take a predictable £40m+ in the UK and $1bn worldwide before the pixie dust fades away.
Disney expected Mufasa: The Lion King to take about £50m buzz at the moment is extremely low, presales look very soft, but they also did for Mona 2 ahead of the opening, but audiences had mixed opinions about the 2019 animated film, Interestingly Mufasa Rotten Tomatoes score is 60% higher than 2019’s The Lion King 51%.
The biggest Disney re-imagination second weekends:
2017’s Beauty and the Beast dropped 37.4% £12,334,338/£13,124,790 and £39,884,575 55.1% of £72,430,579
2019’s The Lion King dropped 36.1% £10,660,287/£11,767,658 and £36,889,089 48.6% of £75,938,299/£83,826,626
2010’s Alice in Wonderland dropped 30.4% £7,343,506/£9,836,595 and £22,749,115 53.9% of £42,169,542
2016’s The Jungle Book dropped 18.2% £8,095,442 and £21,662,461 46.8% of £46,235,032
2019’s Aladdin dropped 30.8% £4,888,931/£5,396,784 and £19,783,972 53.9% of £36,710,978
2023’s The Little Mermaid dropped 15% £4,225,713 £4,225,713 #2 727 screens and £16,214,841 59.45% of £27,275,784
Disney have two more reimaginations set for release in 2025 Snow White and Lilo & Stitch with Moana set for release in 2026 and Tangled in development.
553rd biggest between The Final Destination and Wish (close to Lyle, Lyle Crocodile, Rise of the Guardians, Jungle Cruise and The Holiday) and 938th biggest inflated between Waking Ned Devine and How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days (close to Superman IV, Horton Hears a Who, Groundhog Day and Beetlejuice).
- 3. Wicked £2,699,246 – £53,009,797
Up 7.5% in its sixth weekend
£859k 31.8% (+23.4% £696k) Friday; £930k 34.5% (+4% £894k) Sat; £910k 33.7% (+94.9% £467k) Sunday; £866k Monday
5th biggest sixth weekend between Avatar: The Way of Water and Top Gun: Maverick (close to Titanic, Paddington, Toy Story 4 and Skyfall) and 18th inflated sixth weekend between Top Gun: Maverick and Bridget Jones’s Diary (close to LOTR: Two Towers, Die Another Day, Slumdog Millionaire and The Bodyguard).
Sing-Along played in cinemas from Boxing Day and will be released on VOD on January 3rd,
Sixth weekends
2023’s Wonka dropped 41.4% £2,227,606 and £56,192,556 88.8% of £63,277,138
2022’s Roald Dahl’s Matilda The Musical up 81% £2,040,514 (Christmas) #3 and £20,816,984 726 screens 74.2% of £28,044,574
2005’s Charlie and the Chocolate Factory dropped 40% £660,671 #3 and £35,046,490 93.8% of £37,354,584 (£64,081,749 inflated)
2018’s Mary Poppins Returns dropped 40.1% £998,726/£1,102,472 and £42,133,214 94.6% of £44,541,719
2013’s Les Miserables dropped 31.4% £1,126,168/ £1,374,511 and £35,968,027 88.1% of £40,818,299/£49,819,578
2008’s Mamma Mia! Dropped 21.2% £2,208,482/£3,384,923 and £45,205,845 66.4% of £68,116,092/£104,401,010.
2018’s A Star Is Born dropped 31.4% £1,248,295/£1,377,966 and £25,464,451 86.9% of £29,299,129/£32,342,667
2001’s Moulin Rouge dropped 19.4% £864,326/£1,663,932 and £14,024,943 78.2% of £17,934,410/£34,525,905
1997’s Evita dropped 38% £519,870/£1,018,026 and £12,538,140 88.1% of £14,237,881/£27,881,059
2017’s The Greatest Showman up 7.8% £2,201,523/£2,342,609 and £23,226,869 46.9% of £49,523,728/£52,697,478
The popularity of the stage show Wicked in the UK is similar to Mamma Mia! In April 2024, the stage musical became the 10th longest-running stage show in London’s West End, seen by over 12 million people, having over 6,500 shows and generating over £2bn in ticket sales since its premiere in 2006.
43rd biggest between Frozen 2 and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 (close to Bohemian Rhapsody, Fantastic Beasts, The Full Monty and Quantum of Solace) and 108th biggest inflated between Fatal Attraction and Avengers Age of Ultron (close to The Lion King (1994), Who Framed Roger Rabbit, The Greatest Showman and Frozen).
The soundtrack album is at #1 on the compilations chart, album downloads chart and soundtrack albums chart and three songs are in the singles chart Defying Gravity #58; Popular #91; What Is This Feeling #86 (dropped heavily down the chart due to all the Christmas songs charting)
- 4. Moana 2 £2,214,589 – £33,768,201
Up 7.6% in its fifth weekend.
£664k 30% (+27.7% £520k Friday; £787k 35.5% (+0.9% £780k) Sat; £763k 34.5% (-28% £1.21m) Sunday; £775k Monday
33rd fifth biggest weekend between Inside Out 2 and Bohemian Rhapsody (close to Minions, Sing, Frozen 2 and Toy Story 3) and the 84th-inflated fifth weekend between Inside Out 2 and The Grinch (close to Chicken Run, Peter Rabbit, The Greatest Showman and Alvin and the Chipmunks 2).
Took 36.7% more than 2016’s Moana £1,620,268 (Christmas) and £13,701,447 68.4%; dropped 28% in sixth weekend £1,179,760 #6; dropped 11% in seventh weekend £1,050,979 #3; playing strongly to February taking £20,041,031.
The previous weekend after Christmas Disney films
2023’s Wish up 55% £1,019,728 #6 6th weekend
2022’s Strange World up 95% £280,777 #5 6th weekend
2021’s Encanto up 54% £241,873 #6 6th weekend
2019’s Frozen 2 dropped 4% £2,092,775 #4 6th weekend
Moana became a massive hit on home entertainment in 2017 (the fourth biggest of the year between Fantastic Beasts and Bridget Jones’s Baby) and was on Netflix for the next two years before moving to Disney+ in 2020.
Moana is one of Disney’s most loved recent animated films Kate Winslet said, “From a young age now, and all the mums remember this as well, you have to say to your daughters – ‘I am proud of myself, I feel good about how I look, you look amazing!’ Because guess what? With social media, they may never hear it from anyone else. You have to tell them. And that’s why that film (Moana) is so special to me. Because there’s that beautiful girl, she’s strong, she’s resilient, she’s powerful. She’s going out into the world by herself and has this gorgeous, soft, normal shape! I just love it.”
The 34 Disney animated films have taken £500m+ and £755m inflated since 1989’s Oliver & Company.
124th biggest between Fantastic Beasts 2 and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire (close to Ice Age III, Up, The Lego Movie and Sing 2) and 320th biggest inflated between Sing 2 and Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines (close to Home Alone, Pretty Woman, Three Men And A Baby and Billy Elliot)
- 5 Better Man £1,568,932 – NE
Took £312,427 (19.7%) Boxing Day
Took £400k 25.51% Friday; £435k 27.74% Saturday; £423k 26.98% Sunday; £406k Monday.
1,150th biggest opening between Get Him to the Greek and Closer (close to The Full Monty, Magic Mike XXL, Intolerable Cruelty and Billy Elliot) and 1,729th inflated biggest opening between The River Wild and Girls Trip (close to Boogie Nights, Free Willy, The Color of Money and David Brent: Life on the Road).
43rd biggest 2024 opening between Challengers and Speak No Evil (close to Poor Things, Wicked Litle Letters, Priscilla and All Of Us Strangers).
It was understandable Better Man was dated for Boxing Day as The Greatest Showman opened the same day 7 years ago but plays to a vastly different older audience as it’s a 15 certificate while Sonic, Mufasa, Wicked and Moana 2 all play to families.
Better Man received positive reviews and has had strong word of mouth scored 4.5 stars in PostTrak poll; 93% total Positive score rising to 99% among women aged 25+; 30% would watch it again at the cinema, including 41% of women 25+; 57% would definitely recommend it to friends; 74% of women 25+. If Better Man can hold its screens word of mouth will give it strong legs in January once holidays are over.
Robbie Williams sold 20.36 million albums and 9.2 million singles in the UK, including seven solo number-one singles and another seven with Take That, but his not as popular as he was 20+ years ago when he performed at Knebworth in the summer of 2003 a DVD was released a few months later What We Did Last Summer – Robbie Williams Live At Knebworth had a big Leicester Square premiere selling 350k DVDs.
UK audiences love their musical as seen currently with the enormous success of Wicked Part 1 but also
2022’s Elvis opened #1 740 screens £4,023,572; £1.25m (31.1%) Friday; £1.45m (36%) Sat £1.29m (36%) Sun; taking £27,492,430; had long legs staying in top 5 for 7 weeks and top 10 for 11 weeks.
2018’s Bohemian Rhapsody opened £9,530,463 #1 (£3,054,530 previews) taking £54,948,727
2019’s Rocketman opened £5,381,904 #2 705 screens (including £1,360,606 from three days of previews) taking £23,502,881: top 5 for 5 weeks and top 10 for 7 weeks
2024’s Back To Black opened £2,772,698 taking £12,291,912
2024’s Bob Marley: One Love opened £6,950,773 (including £1.82m on Valentine’s Day (Wednesday) taking £17,183,582
2023’s Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance With Somebody £3,325,458 #2 687 screens taking £11,383,690
2015’s Straight Outta Compton £2,498,231 #1 429 screens taking £8,043,283
2006’s Walk the Line £1,111,142 #2 198 screens taking £9,737,493
Better Man has benefited from being trailered before most of the November releases including Wicked.
Michael Gracey previously directed 2017’s The Greatest Showman opening the same weekend with £4,754,049 including £2.178,902 reviews #3 606 screens behind Star Wars: The Last Jedi #1 and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle #2it had very long legs due to very positive audience reactions (despite receiving average reviews) in the top 10 for 18 weeks taking £1m+ for 12 weeks taking £49,592,940.
UK box office in detail
The weekend’s top 10 box office took £24,433,177 up 119.4% from last weekend’s £11,137,093: x admissions up x% from 1,406,199 admissions.
3rd biggest weekend between of the last 52 weeks between 22 November 2024 #1 Wicked Part 1 £13,696,056 (56.02%) and 26 July 2024 #1 Deadpool and Wolverine £17,276,621 (71.35%)
7th biggest since cinemas reopened out of 215 weeks between 22 November 2024 #1 Wicked Part 1 £13,696,056 (56.02%) and 26 July 2024 #1 Deadpool and Wolverine £17,276,621 (71.35%)
32nd biggest top 10 of the last 22 years (out of 1,187) between 22 November 2024 #1 Wicked Part 1 £13,696,056 (56.02%) and 26 July 2024 #1 Deadpool and Wolverine £17,276,621 (71.35%) and 87th inflated between £24,448,831 #1 Wicked Part 1 £13,696,056 (56.02%) and 03 April 2015 £22,075,680 #1 Fast & Furious 7 £12,765,033 (57.82%)
The top 3 took (£18,704,172) 76.5% of the top 10; Sonic The Hedgehog 3 48.13% (£11,760,314); Mufasa: The Lion King 17.37% (£4,244,612); Wicked Part 1 11.05% (£2,699,246).
138th biggest admissions #1 (1,484,888) between 30 June 2017 #1 Despicable Me 3 (1,489,306) and 16 December 2005 #1 King Kong (1,474,467)
307th biggest percentage share #1 (48.13%) between 10 November 2006 #1 Borat (48.24%) and 19 November 2021 #1 Ghostbusters: Afterlife (48.08%)
Up 51.9% from 2023; (£16,079,436); Ferrari (£1,981,677); The Boy And The Heron (£1,640,667); Anyone But You (£1,253,694); Next Goal Wins (£844,604); Ice Age (Re: 2023) (£24,554); #1 Wonka £6,672,464 4th week down 8% 779 screens (41.5% of top 10)
Up 70.4% 2022 (£14,337,250); Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance With Somebody £3,325,458; Corsage £203,121; Berliner Philharmoniker Live: New Year’s Eve Concert 2022 £54,784; #1 Avatar: The Way of Water £7,643,764 3rd week (53.31% of top 10)
Up 100.2% 2021 (£12,206,285); The King’s Man (£3,496,627); Titane (£121,920); The Electrical Life Of Louis Wain (£85,763); Cinderella – Met Opera 2022 (£23,039); #1 Spider-Man No Way Home £6,055,345 3rd week up 35% 666 screens (49.61% of top 10)
Up 26,732% 2020; (£91,059); #1 Wonder Woman 1984 £72,674; #2 Home Alone £3,840; #3 Come Away £3,245; #1 Wonder Woman 1984 £72,674 214 screens 2nd weekend (79.8% of top 10)
Up 2.7% 2019; (£23,799,781); Little Women (£3,578,877); Spies in Disguise (£1,487,638); Playing with Fire (£762,850); #1 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker £9,311,240 2nd week 741 screens 55% drop (39.1% of top 10)
Up 16% 2018: (£21,066,980); Bumblebee (£5,103,382); Holmes & Watson (£1,418,030); #1 Mary Poppins Returns £7,441,687 2nd week 10% drop 740 screens (35.32% of the top 10)
Down 0.4% 2017: (£24,534,387); The Greatest Showman (£4,754,049); Berliner Philharmoniker: New Year’s Eve Concert (£61,387); #1 Star Wars: The Last Jedi £7,975,174 3rd week 22% drop 691 screens (32.51% of top 10)
Up 41.1% 2016: (£17,313,519); Why Him? (£2,183,715); Monster Trucks (£1,726,229); Collateral Beauty (£1,177,943); Berliner Philharmoniker Live 2016 – New Year’s Gala Concert (£51,162); #1 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story Rogue One: A Star Wars Story £5,959,299 3rd week up 4% 673 screens (34.42% of the top 10)
Up 39.4% 2015; (£17,525,083); Snoopy and Charlie Brown: A Peanuts Movie (£3,639,383); Daddy’s Home (£1,628,219); In the Heart of the Sea (£570,543); #1 Star Wars: The Force Awakens £10,164,805 2nd week 665 screens (58% of top 10)
Up 49.1% 2014: (£16,382,437); Exodus: Gods and Kings (£2,607,453); Annie (£2,310,453); Unbroken (£656,991); Big Eyes (£135,582); #1 The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies £4,249,226 3rd week 601 screens 21% drop (25.9% of top 10)
Up 34.7% 2013: (£18,132,029); The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (£2,235,612); 47 Ronin (£1,415,252); All Is Lost (£231,595); Justin Bieber’s Believe (£205,242); #1 The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug £5,450,824 3rd week 589 screens up 2% (30.06% of top 10)
Up 20% 2012: (£20,367,014); Jack Reacher (£3,575,066); Parental Guidance (£1,293,400); Midnight’s Children (£101,725); Safety Not Guaranteed (£33,028); #1 The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey £6,850,728 3rd week up 15% 596 screens (33.64% of top 10)
Up 24.9% 2011; (£19,565,424); Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol (£8,188,209); The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (£4,325,594); The Lady (£91,690); The Artist (£48,445); Hannah and Her Sisters (Re: 2011) (£2,548); #1 Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol £8,188,209 509 screens (41.85% of top 10)
Up 42.6% 2010: (£17,137,638); Gulliver’s Travels (£7,028,747); Love and Other Drugs (£1,606,253); The Way Back (£1,327,650); #1 Gulliver’s Travels £7,028,747 1st week 497 screens
Up 75.7% 2009; (£13,907,548); Alvin And The Chipmunks II (£5,347,191); Sherlock Holmes (£3,439,616); 3 Idiots (£437,554); Nowhere Boy (£148,157); #1 Alvin And The Chipmunks II£5,347,191 1st week (38.4% of top 10)
Up 166% 2008; (£9,184,877); Yes Man (£2,331,490); Bedtime Stories (£1,551,605); Australia (£1,294,414); #1 Yes Man £2,331,490 1st week (25.4% of top 10)
Up 14.9% 2007: (£21,258,964); I Am Legend (£11,009,365); Balls of Fury (£638,761); The Kite Runner (£468,592); #1 I Am Legend £11,009,365 1st week 440 screens (51.8% of top 10)
Up 60.4% 2006; (£15,231,586); Night at the Museum (£7,690,312); It’s a Boy Girl Thing (£1,141,268); #1 Night at the Museum £7,690,312 1st week 488 screens (50.5% of top 10)
Up 107.5% 2005: (£11,774,274); Cheaper By The Dozen 2 (£2,287,967); The Producers (£1,311,179); Just Like Heaven (£1,201,381) #1 The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe £2,994,438 3rd week 2nd 1 over 3 weeks 527 screens 41% drop (47.7% of top 10)
Up 260.3% 2004; (£6,781,968); Without a Paddle (£595,249); #1 The Incredibles £1,296,3333rd week split over 7 weeks 485 screens (19.11% of top 10)
Up 102.2% 2003 (£12,084,935); Peter Pan (£1,359,372); Cold Mountain (£380,994); Out of Time (£311,508); #1 Lord of the Rings: Return of the King £7,149,427 2nd week 59.2% of top 10)
Up 84.4% from 2002: (£13,253,300); Chicago (platform) (£113,386); Blood Work (£61,053); #1 Lord of the Rings: Two Towers £8,177,801 2nd week 499 screens 37% (61.7% of top 10)
Up 71% from 2001 (£14,285,925); The Mean Machine (£1,573,594); Serendipity (£635,042); #1 The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Rings £7,825,995 2nd week 470 screens 29% drop (54.8% of top 10).
2023 Next week: (£13,260,177); One Life (£3,324,502); Priscilla (£1,326,326); Night Swim (£590,691); Scala!!! (£15,673); #1 Wonka £3,779,636 5th weekend 739 screens (28.5% of top 10).
UK Box office
2024 UK BO is expected to be £931m down slightly from £978m in 2023, the first drop since 2020. The strikes have been used as an excuse, but the top 10 films would have taken similar BO without the strike as they all took as they were expected to take; Inside Out 2 £58.72m; Deadpool & Wolverine £57.5m; Wicked £53m; Despicable Me 4 £48.26m; Dune: Part 2 £39.17m; Moana 2 £33.76m; Paddington In Peru £33.02m; Gladiator 2 £30.33m; Beetlejuice 2 £26.22m; Kung Fu Panda 4 £21.8m. Films like Dune: Part 2 and Beetlejuice 2 might have not taken as much had more films been opening against them.
There is confusion with UK BO as ComScore includes Republic of Ireland BO within the UK despite being part of the EU, so have two sets of figures ComScore saying BO has returned to £1bn+ for the first time since 2019 and then the UK saying it dropped.
In October 2021 Tim Richards said it was going to be the second Golden Age of cinema a year later UKCA said UK admissions would top 200m within a decade. While it’s great to be positive they need to back up their claims of this growth as there hasn’t been any evidence that it will be as extreme over the last four years.
The full recovery from COVID keeps being pushed back from 2023 to 2026 and will be delayed again as 2026 will be impacted by the USA World Cup from June 11 to July 19.
Admissions for 2024 will be about 121m similar to 1994 when BO was £401m showing how ticket inflation has affected UK BO. Over the last three years admissions have only increased by 7m. They are still over 50m less than they were in 2018. Where is the growth coming from to get them back to 2018 levels and beyond? BO could return to 2019 levels in 2026 due to ticket price increases. The industry average is up 11.4% since 2019 from £7.11 to £7.92, but as 40% of BO is now from IMAX/PLF and other premium formats real average is a third more.
Omdia predicts the UK box office will be £1.02bn in 2025 highest since 2019 (£1.25bn) with admissions of 129m, admissions would still be almost 50m lower than they were in 2018, only increasing 15m in 4 years.
Nothing will change until the industry changes, while audiences will always come out to see the biggest 10 films over the last 20+ years and have become much more selective in the other films they see. In a recent survey by the BFI, 35% said going to the cinema was a special treat while 34% said cost was the reason they didn’t go as often. A trip to the cinema shouldn’t be a treat as for over 100 years it was a cheap night out, the price of a pint of Guinness or a Big Mac meal.
US Box Office
US BO is expected to be about $8.75bn, with 40%+ of BO from IMAX/PLF. It’s a third more than $10.78. NATO has been slow in updating average prices over the last 5 years, staying at $9.16 for 3.5 years (2019 – 2022) and has been at $10.78 for the last 2 years. EntTelligence 2024 average is $12.52-$16.82 from standard to premium. EntTelligence also say admissions were about 620m.
While 22 films were taking $100m+ compared to 35 in 2018, not that $100m is a sign of BO success anymore as it was 30+ years ago. Excuses will be made about the strikes but it’s unlikely the top 5 films taking $2bn would have been any different had they ended sooner Inside Out 2, Deadpool 3, Wicked, Moana 2 and Despicable Me 4.
There’s slight difference in the percentage share of the top 5 and top 10 of the BO in 2024 and 2019:
2024 Top 5 $2bn 22.8%: Top 10 $3.28bn 37.5%
2019 Top 5 $2.7bn 24.1%: Top 10 $4.39bn 39.2%
Audiences will always come out to see the biggest must-see films, the issue is how many of the other audiences will see them.
In 2025 audiences will predictably come out to see Captain America 4, Snow White, Minecraft, Thunderbolts, Lilo & Stitch, JW4, Superman, FF, Wicked 2, Zootopia 2 and Avatar 3 taking $5bn+ between them. The question is will the others take $6bn+ or will tentpoles cannibalize BO around them as normally happens?
US Box Office
Weekend BO $263m down 6% from 2023’s Christmas weekend $279.9m; 2019 was the last 5-day Christmas weekend taking $485.5m with Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker taking 60%.
2024 BO is expected to take about $8.75bn down 3.3% from last year.
While NATO average is $10.78 EntTelligence average price range is $12.52-$16.82 for standard to premium tickets in 2024; 40%+ of BO for films like Mufasa come from IMSX/PLF
- Sonic The Hedgehog 3 – Paramount Pictures
Dropped 38% in the second weekend $37.01m #1 (3 days) $59.9m (5 days) and $136.56m
141st biggest second weekend between Transformers and The Martian (close to The Lorax, The Grinch. Night at the Museum and Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel) and Sonic the Hedgehog #300; Sonic the Hedgehog 2 #241
503rd biggest between The Green Mile and Ransom; 1,177th biggest inflated between Problem Child and Cowboys and Aliens; 18th biggest 2024 between A Quiet Place: Day One and Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire; 64th biggest Paramount Pictures between A Quiet Place: Day One and The Godfather.
2020’s Sonic the Hedgehog dropped 54.9% $26.19m and $106.49m of $148.97m and $319.71m WW
2022’s Sonic the Hedgehog 2 dropped 59.4% $29.4m and $118.91m of $190.87m and $405.42m worldwide
Sonic the Hedgehog 4 has been dated for Spring 2027.
Opens $74m from 52 territories and $211.5m worldwide; UK $15.1m; Mexico $10.3m; France $7.3m; Australia $5.5m; Germany $5.5m; Spain $3.3m
- Mufasa: The Lion King
Up 4% in its second weekend $36.8m #2 (3 day)/$63.7m (5-day) and $113.18m
145th biggest second weekend between The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey and Night at the Museum (close to Jurassic Park, Happy Feet, Titanic and Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa).
Last year EntTelligence reported average price was $13.37 with $11.19 for children.
684th biggest between The Bourne Legacy and The Pacifier; 1,507th biggest inflated between Fury and G.I. Jane; 20th biggest 2024 between Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire and If; 129th biggest Disney film between Maleficent: Mistress of Evil and The Pacifier.
Mufasa’s soft box office wasn’t unexpected as all of Disney’s sequel reimaginations going back to 102 Dalmatians in 2000 have all come short of the original reimagination performance. These sequels are similar to the straight-to-video sequels Disney made in the 80s and 90s their classic animated films. The 1998 straight-to-DVD sequel Simba’s Pride is far more enjoyable than Mufasa.
2019’s The Lion King dropped 60% $76.62m and $351.87m of $543.63m and $1.662bn worldwide
1994’s The Lion King dropped 30.9% $16.88m and $174.34m of $422.78m/$1.12bn and $771.05m/$2.04bn WW
While audiences will come out in large numbers to photorealistic animated remakes of the classic animated films they have little interest in seeing the sequels this has been the case since 2000’s 102 Dalmatians
The Little Mermaid dropped 56.7% $41.38m and $186.9m of $298.17m and $569.62m worldwide.
2019’s Aladdin dropped 53.2% $42.84m and $185.35m of $355.5m and $1.054bn worldwide
1996’s 101 Dalmatians dropped 58.4% $13.94m and $63.69m of $136.18m and $320.68m worldwide
2000’s 102 Dalmatians dropped 58.3% $8.29m and $36.6m of $66.95m and $183.61m worldwide
2014’s Maleficent dropped 50.6% $34.32m and $128.17m of $241.41m and $759.85m worldwide
2019’s Maleficent: Mistress of Evil dropped 47.6% $18.4m and $66.45m of $113.9m and $491.7m worldwide
2010’s Alice in Wonderland dropped 46% $62.71m and $209.33m of $334.19m and $1.025bn worldwide
2016’s Alice Through the Looking Glass dropped 57.9% $11.31m and $51.39m of $77.04m and $299.82m
Took $77.1m and $214.5m from 55 territories and $327.67m worldwide; France $20.9m; UK $15.8m; Mexico $15.5m; Italy $14.4m; Germany $13.6m; took $23m from IMAX; US $11.7m and International $11.4m; In comparison 2019’s The Lion King took $142.8m from 53 territories in its second weekend $611.9m total and $962.7m worldwide; China $114.8m; UK $45.1m; Brazil $42.1m; France $40.1m; Mexico $37.1m; Russia $31.8m; Australia $28.9m; Korea $28m; Germany $22.4m; Spain $21m..
510th biggest worldwide between Bolt and Taken 3; 21st biggest 2024 worldwide between It Ends With Us and The Wild Robot; 103rd biggest Disney worldwide between Bolt and The Hunchback of Notre Dame.
- Nosferatu- Focus Features
Opened $21.65m #3 (3 days)/$40.3m (5 days); received positive reviews (86% Rotten Tomatoes) and B- CinemaScore
Had IMAX/35mm previews.
Had the fourth biggest opening for Focus Features after Downton Abbey ($31m), Insidious 3 ($23.7m) and London Has Fallen ($21.6m) and one of the biggest openings for speciality studio after A24’s dystopian Civil War ($25m), Neon’s Longlegs ($22.4m) and Cineverse’s Terrifier 3 ($18.9m)
Audience breakdown male 25+ (41%); women 25+ (33%); women under 25 (14%) and men under 25 (13%); 40% brought tickets the day before seeing it.
Robert Eggers previously directed.
2015’s The Witch opened $8.8m taking $25.13m and $40.42m worldwide
2019’s The Lighthouse opened $3.02m taking $10.86m and $18.12m worldwide
2022’s The Northman opened $12.29m taking $34.23m and $65.63m worldwide
Robert Eggers’s next film is expected to be a reboot/sequel to 1986’s Labyrinth for Sony Pictures
1992’s Bram Stoker’s Dracula opened $30.52m/$79.47m taking $82.52m/$214.87m and $215.86m/$562.1m worldwide
Opened with $3m from 5 territories.
- A Complete Unknown – Searchlight
Opened $11.65m #6 (3 days)/$23m (5 days); received positive reviews (96% Rotten Tomatoes) and A CinemaScore
Took $1.4m from previews; Rocketman $2.3m ($25.7m opening) and Elvis posted $3.5m ($31.2m)
Took 14% of opening from IMAX/PLF; 36% were 18-34; 62% 35+ and 55+ 40%. While it was expected older audiences would come out to see it, Timothee Chalamet attracted younger audiences as it did previously for Dune.
Had the biggest opening for Searchlight Pictures film and one of Fox Searchlight’s biggest openings after 2009’s Notorious ($20m), 2006’s The Hills Have Eyes ($15.7m) and 2018’s Super Troopers 2 ($15.1m).
Selected previous James Mangold film openings.
1997’s Cop Land opened $13.51m taking $44.86m
1999’s Girl, Interrupted opened $8.12m taking $28.91m and $48.35m worldwide
2003’s Identity opened $16.22m taking $52.15m and $90.25m worldwide
2005’s Walk the Line opened $22.34m taking $119.51m and $186.79m worldwide
2007’s 3:10 to Yuma opened $14.03m taking $53.6m and $70.01m worldwide
2019’s Ford v Ferrari opened $31.47m taking $117.62m and $225.5m worldwide
- Moana 2 – Disney
Up 43% in its fifth weekend $18.9m #5 (3 day)/$28.3m (5 day) and $395.3m
18th biggest fifth weekend between Zootopia and Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace (close to Inside Out 2, Frozen, The Super Mario Bros. Movie and The Jungle Book)
11th biggest animated film between Frozen and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse; 50th biggest between Frozen and Spider-Man: Far From Home; 157th inflation inflated between Zootopia and Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves; 4th biggest 2024 between Wicked and Despicable Me 4; 27th biggest Disney between Frozen and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2.
2016’s Moana dropped 38.9% $7.71m and $180.74m of $248.75m and $643.33m worldwide
The 36 Disney animation films since 1988’s Oliver & Company have taken over $5.6bn and $9.6m inflated in the US.
Took $36.1m from 52 territories and $487.9m total and $883.2m worldwide; France $53.9m; UK $42.6m Germany $34.8m; Mexico $28.2m; Brazil $25.7m.
20th biggest animated film between The Secret Life of Pets and Ice Age: Continental Drift; 79th biggest worldwide between Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire and Ice Age: Continental Drift; 4th biggest 2024 worldwide between Despicable Me 4 and Dune: Part Two; 33rd biggest Disney between Finding Nemo and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2.
- Wicked Part 1 – Universal Pictures
Up 40% in its sixth weekend $19.74m #4 (3 days)/$31.7m (5 days) and $424.53m
8th biggest sixth weekend between Avatar: The Way of Water and Black Panther (close to The Lovely Bones, Frozen II, The Sixth Sense and Mrs Doubtfire)
35th biggest between The Hunger Games: Catching Fire and The Lion King (1994); 154th biggest inflated between Zootopia and Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves; 3rd biggest 2024 between Deadpool & Wolverine and Moana 2; Biggest musical ahead of Grease and Chicago; 4th biggest Universal Pictures between E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom.
Sixth weekends
Comparison films include.
2013’s Oz the Great and Powerful dropped 39.3% $4.85m and $219.38m of $234.91m/$311.48m and $493.31m/$654.1m WW
2017’s Beauty and the Beast dropped 29.5% $9.6m and $470.87m of $504.01m and $1.263bn worldwide
2014’s Maleficent dropped 26.5% $6.15m and $213.91m of $241.41m/$318.53m and $758.41m/$1bn
2023’s Barbie dropped 28.2% $15.1m and $592.8m of $636.23m and $1.446bn worldwide
Jon Chu previously directed Crazy Rich Asians dropped 27% $6.34m and $159.27m of $174.83m and $239.34m worldwide.
Took $13.76m from 81 territories $210.89m total and $635.42m worldwide; UK $60.8m; Australia $22.5m; Korea $13.1m; Mexico $9.6m; Germany $8m.
169th biggest worldwide between Interstellar and Kung Fu Panda; 6th biggest 2024 between Dune: Part Two and Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire; biggest musical ahead of Mamma Mia!, Les Misérables and Grease; 20th biggest Universal Pictures between Fast X and Sing.
- Babygirl – A24
Opened $4.39m #7 (3 days)/$7.2m (5 days); positive reviews (77% Rotten Tomatoes) and B- CinemaScore
Took $430k from previews.
Women 53% and men 47%; 15% between 18-24 years old; 40% 25-34; 44% 35+; 40% 25-34; while it received positive reviews Rotten Tomatoes audience is low given the subject matter of the film.
Halina Reijn previously directed 2011’s Bodies Bodies Bodies opened $3.12m taking $11.44m
Nicole Kidman has starred in three other erotic thrillers.
1995’s To Die For opened $6.23m taking $21.28m
1999’s Eyes Wide Shut opened $21.7m taking $55.69m
2012’s The Paperboy opened $102,706 taking $693,286
Similar films include 1987’s Fatal Attraction opened $7.6m taking $156.64m and $320.14m worldwide; 1996’s Bound opened $900,902 taking $3.8m; and $162.37m; 2024’s Challengers opened $15.01m taking $50.11m and $96.01m; 2015’s The Boy Next Door opened $14.51m taking $35.42m and $52.42m worldwide; 2002’s Secretary opened $182,306 taking $4.05m;
- The Brutalist – A24
Up 24% in its second weekend $203,153 from 7 screens and $687,444
Had two days of IMAX previews ahead of opening and will return to IMAX screens in January.
The three-hour film has received critical acclaim (93% on Rotten Tomatoes) has two acts and a 15-minute intermission; it was shot using VistaVision on 35mm and then 70mm prints. It’s the first film to be shot using VistaVision since 1961’s One-Eyed Jacks.
The Brutalist received seven Golden Globe nominations including Best Film, Best Director and Best Actor. Received its world premiere at the Venice Film Festival A24 acquired US rights for $10m.
It will be released by Universal Pictures in the UK in January
UK Box Office Top 10
UK Box Office Preview
After Sonic, The Hedgehog 3 took 65% of its £11,760,314 opening from previews it will drop about 70% in its second weekend taking about £3.5m-£4m. Over its last week, Sonic 3’s last 8 days it taken a similar daily BO to Mufasa and the two films will take a similar BO over their second/third weekends.
The question is will the new releases Nosferatu and We Live In Time both having 5-day openings come close to either of them? They are quite different films targetting quite different audiences but they both feature strong British casts, We Live in Time Andrew Garfield and Florence Pugh while Nicholas Hoult, Aaron Taylor-Johnson and Emma Corrin star in Nosferatu.
John Crowley previously directed 2003’s Intermission opened £146,220 on 28 screens taking £2,141,314/£3,819,641; 2015’s Brooklyn opened £1,041,278 308 screens taking £4,981,577/£5,472,135; and 2019’s The Goldfinch opened £320,849 515 screens.
2010’s Love and Other Drugs opened £1,606,253/£2,138,071 taking £5,272,800/£7,018,584
2011’s One Day opened £2,208,724/£2,886,649 taking £8,024,165/£10,487,028
2014’s The Fault in Our Stars opened £3,434,334/£4,047,608 taking £11,006,752/£12,972,243
2013’s About Time opened £1,761,079/£2,135,949 taking £7,602,017/£9,220,211
2004’s The Notebook opened £309,507/£545,946 taking £1,109,047/£1,956,270
After It Ends With Us opened #1 in August with £4,516,760 knocking Deadpool & Wolverine off #1 after 2 weeks and going on to take £21,241,321 with positive reviews and strong buzz We Live In Time could open similarly #1.
While Nosferatu has received positive reviews and strong buzz since its world premiere at the start of December.
Robert Eggers’s previous films all received positive reviews.
2022’s The Northman opened £897,737 #4 528 screens taking £4,349,002
2016’s The Witch (opened #7 £447,626 from 179 screens taking £883,088)
2020’s The Lighthouse (opened #10 £384,284 from 83 screens)
Nosferatu is more mainstream than his other films; 1993’s Bram Stoker Dracula opened £2,640,584/£6,515,086 335 screens taking £11,548,429/£28.5m. While the last Dracula film was part of Universal Pictures Dark Universe shared monster universe 2014’s Dracula Untold opened £1,713,283/£2,019,226 taking £4,454,648/£5,250,121
Will be 7 films taking £1m+ as many of the films are playing to different demographics as was the case between 2018 and 2020 rather than one cannibalizing the market as in 2023 with Avatar 2.
2024; 4; Wonka; One Life; Priscilla and Anyone But You
2023; 3; Avatar: The Way Of Water; Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance With Somebody; Roald Dahl’s Matilda The Musical
2022; 2; Spider-Man: No Way Home and The King’s Man
2020; 9; Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker; Jumanji: The Next Level; The Gentlemen; Little Women; Jojo Rabbit; Andre Rieu: 70 Years Young; Frozen 2; Spies In Disguise and Cats
2019; 6; Mary Poppins Returns; The Favourite; Aquaman; Andre Rieu’s 2019 New Year Concert from Sydney; Bumblebee; Ralph Breaks the Internet
2018; 7; Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle; Star Wars: The Last Jedi; The Greatest Showman; Molly’s Game; Pitch Perfect 3; All the Money in the World and Paddington 2
Opening in three weeks
- Flight Risk – Lionsgate
Action thriller starring Mark Wahlberg, Topher Grace, and Michelle Dockery and directed by Mel Gibson.
In December 2020 Jared Rosenberg’s screenplay Flight Risk was on the year’s Blacklist; was originally set for release in October, but in September it was moved to January.
Mel Gibson’s first film he has directed since 2017’s Hacksaw Ridge opened £1,490,158 taking £4,945,211. Its
- The Brutalist – Universal Pictures
Historical drama starring Adrien Brody, Felicity Jones, Guy Pearce, Joe Alwyn, Raffey Cassidy, Stacy Martin, Emma Laird, and Alessandro Nivola and directed by Brady Corbet.
Premiered at the Venice International Film Festival Corbet won the Silver Lion for Best Direction; the film received critical acclaim was named one of the top ten films of 2024 by the AFI and was nominated for seven Golden Globes.
