- Avatar: The Way of Water – £5,870,063 – £57,286,005
Down 23.2% in its fourth weekend. after dropping 60% on Friday taking £1.3m would have expected a much bigger fourth-weekend drop, but with its lengthy running time people will now opt to see it on Sat/Sun increasing 106% on Saturday (£2.67m) up 21.4% from previous Saturday and 29.1% down on Sunday (£1.89m) 11.7% down from previous Sunday and then down 74.1% on Monday (£493k).
Thursday was its first day after 20 days on release took under £1m (£0.93m), the same number of days until Top Gun: Maverick BO dropped under £1m.
Took £14.09m in 3rd week with 54.2% (£7.64m) Fri-Sun and 45.8% (£6.44m) Mon-Thurs taking 43.4% (£2.8m) from Bank Holiday Monday and £3.64m Tues-Thurs.
This compares to
£20.60m 1st week taking £11.18m 55.8% Fri-Sun and 44.2% (£8.87m) Mon-Thurs
£17.43m 2nd week £4.97m 28.5% Fri-Sun and 71.5% (£12.46m) Mon-Thurs
Expect week 4 to take about £8.5m with 69%+ (£5.86m) Fri-Sun and 31% (£2.64m) Mon-Thurs
2nd biggest fourth weekend between Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Skyfall; took £1,099,083 more than Avatar (£4,770,980) and 13th biggest inflation-inflated 4th weekend between Mrs Doubtfire and Bridget Jones’s Diary (close to Finding Nemo, Star Wars: Phantom Menace, Toy Story 2 and Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey) Avatar was the fourth biggest inflated between Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone and Skyfall.
26th biggest film in the UK (45th to take £50m+ since Titanic in 1998) between Joker and LOTR: The Two Towers (close to LOTR: The Return of the King, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Star Wars: The Phantom Menace and Dunkirk) and 90th biggest inflation inflated between Incredibles and Alice In Wonderland (close to Robin Hood: Prince Of Thieves, Gladiator, Ghostbusters (1984) and Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade).
In 2009 Avatar took 85%+ from 3D with IMAX (9 screens) and 2D (300) taking about 7% each but 2D has taken far more of the BO for Avatar 2 (41%) with 47% 3D and 12% IMAX.
It’s hard to make any direct comparisons between Avatar 2 with any other film and opening 13 years after the first film it’s impossible to compare it to the original film. While many talks about it playing similarly to Avatar and Titanic, the marketplace was very different then audiences weren’t desperate to see it over opening weekend, so film BO was strong and steady for months, whereas in Avengers Endgame 90% of BO taken within 24 days; Avatar was similar to Top Gun: Maverick 57% Vs 65% but Spider-Man No Way Home 1%.
The big question is whether it will top Avatar BO and whether will it have similar legs, and it has so far performed as expected, this weekend is its key weekend if it drops over or under 50% as with a lack of film releases aimed at its audience until February due to rivals concerns that it would have the legs of the original film it should drop about 40% over the next few weeks.
In 2009 Avatar had much more competition as few expected Avatar to be a massive success, in its fourth weekend dropped 20% taking £4,770,980 from 493 screens and £40,991,797; holdovers Sherlock Holmes £2,026,732; Alvin and The Chipmunks II £1,220,271 with new openers Daybreakers £1,344,588; It’s Complicated £1,098,659; The Road £627,147.
The original was #1 for 7 weeks in a row taking £4m+ for all those weeks after opening with £8.5m, the question is how many weeks Avatar will: The Way of Water stay at #1 as Empire of Light (January 9th 7-day opening) is the only film that could open #1 before Puss In Boots: The Last Wish (February 3rd).
Comparison titles to Avatar 2 apart from the first film are going by its opening Rogue One and Lord of the Rings trilogy and The Hobbit trilogy also opened the same weekend in December with similar BO, but of course, its 21 years ago since the first Lord of the Rings film and they weren’t released originally in 3D or IMAX.
The 7 James Cameron-directed films have taken £300m at the UK BO (don’t have data for Terminator) but the age of many of them sees the inflation inflated total of £500m+.
- 2. I Wanna Dance with Somebody – £1,388,927 – £6,269,960
Dropped 58.2% in the second weekend including previews but increased 1.4% Fri-Sun
Friday £413k (33% drop);
682nd biggest second weekend between Hairspray and Baby Driver (close to Stuart Little, Speed, Aladdin (1993) and Step Up 2) and 1,187th inflated between Hot Shots: Part Deux and We’re the Millers (close to Clueless, Dead Poets Society, One Direction: This Is Us and Sister Act 2 Back In The Habit).
While the Whitney Huston biopic had a soft opening in the US last weekend it was always likely to perform far stronger in the UK.
Music biopics 2nd weekends include
1993’s Tina, What’s Love Got To Do with It dropped 16.6% £393,260 (£989,888 inflated) taking £1,537,105 of £3,703,961 (£9,323,366 inflated)
2019’s Rocketman dropped 53.8% £2,486,043 and £11,957,794 of £23,502,881
2015’s Straight Outta Compton dropped 45.3% £1,366,741 and £5,807,566 of £8,043,283.
2006’s Walk the Line up 3.5% £1,150,472 and £3,024,681 taking £9,737,493 (£16,155,841 inflated)
2022’s Elvis dropped 26.3% £2,963,292 and £10,197,943 of £27,492,430
2007’s Dreamgirls dropped 57.6% £563,703 taking £2,369,272 of £3,475,271 (£5,560,434 inflated)
2018’s Bohemian Rhapsody dropped 39.6% £5,750,267 taking £20,427,866 of £55.4m
2003’s 8 Mile dropped 43.4% £2,514,467 taking £8,649,445 of £13,254,812 (£22,449,591 inflated)
1992’s The Bodyguard dropped 45.2% in the second weekend taking £1,286,920 (£3,239,350 inflated) and £3,623,000 taking £17,001,069 (took 7.24x opening) £42,793,968 inflated.
- 3. Roald Dahl’s Matilda The Musical – £1,182,411 – £23,963,668
Up 42.1% in its seventh weekend
Friday £189k (78% drop) was always expected to have a heavy drop on Friday as Matilda will be limited again mostly to weekend BO over the next few weeks, but the positive is it doesn’t have any competition until Puss in Boots 2 in three weeks…
13th biggest 2022 film between Sonic the Hedgehog 2 and Uncharted
Had a similar 7th weekend as Paddington (£1,268,785), The Lion King (2019) (£1,226,964); Frozen (£1,151,814) and Ghost (£1,109,746).
The first four weeks of Matilda BO were limited mostly to weekend BO taking £12,763,080 over the first 24 days and £8,033,505 over the last two weeks over the Christmas holidays, including £750k taken on Bank Holiday Monday, has taken £8.8m over 40% of its total BO over Christmas holidays.
In 2014 Paddington opened the same weekend as Matilda taking £18,120,879 48% of £37,805,402 total 4 weeks before Christmas 33.6% (£12,697,171) over 2 weeks of Christmas and 18.5% (£6,987,352) after Christmas. Matilda opened with (£4,135,418) 20% less than Paddington (£5,125,519) will end up taking about 33% less (£25m).
Paddington was released in a far more crowded marketplace than Matilda, but it was also far stronger with 8 films taking £1m+ over the opening weekend of 2015 compared with 3 this year with three other family films on release (Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb, Annie and Penguins of Madagascar). This again highlights how soft the marketplace has been this year and how BO has been shared across fewer films which can’t be healthy.
Seventh weekends
1996’s Matilda dropped 10% £460,794 (£1,004,505 inflated) and £7,195,421 (£15,713,244) 70.3% of £10,227,163 (£22,333,913 inflated)
2005’s Charlie and the Chocolate Factory dropped 18% £541,963 #5 and £35,940,949 96.2% of £37,354,584 (£64,081,749 inflated)
2009’s Fantastic Mr Fox dropped 59% £91,200 #14 and £8,707,283 94% of £9,260,892 (£13,755,148)
2016’s The BFG up 6% £703,375 #6 and £28,660,479 93.4% of £30,694,086
197th biggest film between Uncharted and Borat (close to Ratatouille, The Sixth Sense, The Hunger Games and Wreck-It Ralph) and 432nd biggest inflated between The Theory of Everything and Gosford Park (close to Ace Ventura: When Nature Calls, Aquaman, Charlie’s Angels (2000) and Cool Runnings).
11th biggest family/musical film between Cats and Dogs and E.T (close to The BFG, Cats and Dogs, Mrs Doubtfire and Babe) and the 32nd biggest inflated between Enchanted and Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events (close to Jumanji, Nanny McPhee, Matilda (1996) and Flubber).
- 4. A Man Called Otto – £1,088,410 – NE
1,480th biggest opening between Sleepless in Seattle (£1,088,627) and Get Shorty (close to It’s Complicated, Forever Young, Shall We Dance? And Scream (1997) and 1,985th biggest inflation-inflated opening between Amelie and The Death of Stalin (close to Uncle Buck, O’ Brother, Where Art Thou, Space Cowboys and The Awakenings).
Its Tom Hanks’s 20th biggest opening between Sleepless in Seattle and Philadelphia (close to Road to Perdition, The Green Mile, Turner & Hooch and A League of Their Own) and 25th biggest inflated between A League of Their Own and The Ladykillers
Tom Hanks has some massive hits, (strange coincidence that it opens with al almost the same BO as 1993’s Sleepless in Seattle) but he also has some films, which struggle to find an audience like A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (opened £493,770) and A Hologram for the King (£378,759).
Tom Hanks recently starred in Baz Luhrmann’s Elvis opening with £4,023,572 having very strong legs taking £27.5m (6.83x opening) while his previous film was A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood which opened weeks before cinemas closed for COVID. His films have taken almost £300m at the BO since 1988 and £500m inflated. Tom Hanks next stars in Wes Anderson’s ensemble Asteroid City opening in the summer with a likely Cannes premiere.
A Man Called Otto is similar to 1994’s Grumpy Old Men (opened £198,320 #3 from 139 screens taking £641,113); 2003’s About Schmidt opened £757,325 taking £2,925,430 (£5,323,755 inflated); 2013’s Nebraska opened £151,332 #10 from 122 screens taking £344,756; 2019’s The Upside opened £681,422 #8 from 312 screens taking £1,483,007
Marc Forster directs the film previously directed 2001’s Monster’s Ball (opened £486,017 taking £2.4m); 2004’s Finding Neverland (£776,124; £3.6m); 2008’s Quantum of Solace (£15.4m; £51.2m); 2013’s World War Z (£4.5m; £14.6m),
Sony Pictures acquired world rights in February 2022 for $60m
- 5. Andre Rieu in Dublin 2023 – £715,986 – NE
Opened similar to the last Andre Rieu concert released in August 2022 Maastricht Summer Concert opened #1 £798,706 and was the first Event Cinema #1 post-pandemic and the first since Billy Elliot The Musical Live 2014 (£1,904,098).
André Rieu’s concerts grew in popularity since the first one,
Andre Rieu’s 2014 Maastricht Concert £830,586.
Andre Rieu’s 2015 Maastricht Concert £1,107,000.
Andre Rieu’s 2016 Maastricht Concert £1,414,075.
Andre Rieu: Christmas with Andre 2016 £1,180,208 #4 470 screens.
Andre Rieu’s 2017 Maastricht Concert £1,439,604.
2018’s André Rieu’s Maastricht Concert, ’Amore £1,783,222.
Andre Rieu’s 2019 New Year Concert from Sydney £1,745,941 #4 570 screens.
Andre Rieu 2019 Maastricht Concert – Shall We Dance? (July) £1,492,154 #4 587 screens.
2020’s Andre Rieu’s Magical Maastricht: Together In Music (September) £124,101 #4 403 screens.
2020’s Andre Rieu: 70 Years Young (January) £1,717,074 #6 579 screens.
Andre Rieu’s 2021 Summer Concert: Together Again (August) £420,056 #4 551 screens.
Event Cinema attracts an older audience who have been slow to return to cinemas since they reopened but would have expected by now 15 months later Andre Rieu’s Maastricht Summer Concert to open similar pre-lockdown especially as it opened on 677 screens with tickets £20+ and had encore screenings.
In 2019 Event Cinema took £45.3m in the UK about 3.3% of the year’s box office up from 2.4% in 2018, but it dropped to £6.7m in 2021 taking 1.1% of total BO
Also opened
Till – Universal Pictures
Opened with £327,496 from 424 screens
Opened with £73k (22.3%) from Friday
After struggling to find an audience on its opening weekend exhibitors have reduced the screenings in their second weekend, the problem is audiences don’t rush out to see films like Till over opening weekend. What will surely confuse many this weekend is the screens showing Till last week will be showing Tar this weekend.
Exhibitors demand studios keep films to a 90-day theatrical window, but exhibitors will still pull these films within a week. It will be interesting to see if exhibitors keep playing Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer for the full 100 days in July.
Other US historical race dramas released in the UK include 1993’s Malcolm X (opened £396,251; taking £1.4m); 2015’s Selma (£814,849 taking £3.3m); 2017’s Hidden Figures (£1.4m taking £6.3m).
Received world premiere at the New York Film Festival in October receiving critical acclaim (98% Rotten Tomatoes) but was one of several films that opened during the autumn, as so many films had a strong platform release but struggled to find an audience when it expands. It had its UK premiere at the London Film Festival in October.
Film News
ComScore reported UK and Ireland BO increased by 64% in 2022 from £597m to £978.5m, they report UK BO including Ireland, but the UKCA report only UK BO. Annual Irish BO between 2017-19 was £100m+ about 7.5%, this increased in 2020 and 2021 to 8.3% and 12.1% as Irish BO had a stronger recovery than the rest of the UK. The Republic of Ireland was up 89% from 2021, while Northern Ireland was 73%, Scotland 68%, Wales 63% and England 61%. So Irish BO was about 10%+ of £978.5m, this would see UK BO about £890m which would be similar to 2008 BO. ($854.4m).
There were 911 films released in 2022 up from 503 screens close to the 938 released in 2019. 135 films were released on over 250 screens down from 186 screens in 2019, but Vue said in a Guardian article last week there were only 62 films released compared with 92 on average between 2017-2019.
Top 10 films took 43.8% of 2022 BO with 8 released in the first 7 months with the best period of UK BO between May and July due to an 8-week gap between comic-book films (Doctor Strange 2 and Thor Love and Thunder). The huge success of Top Gun Maverick led to strong BO of Jurassic World: Dominion and Elvis in June and Minions: The Rise of Gru in July. As comic-book films, success only leads to success for the next comic-book film, as seen by the performance of The Batman being similar to Doctor Strange 2 which was similar to both Thor Love and Thunder and Black Panther Wakanda Forever. For non-comic-book films like Top Gun: Maverick success leads to the further success of other films.
Top 5 took £250m 27.7%
Top 10 took £403m 44.7%
Top 20 took £564m 62.5%
Top 50 took 50 81.9%
Doesn’t include 2021 releases or Event Cinema BO
What I’ve said for a long time is that the majority of comic-book movies don’t grow BO, they cannibalise it and only help the next comic-book movie. As seen last year with The Batman, Doctor Strange 2, Thor 4 and Black Panther 2 all taking similar BO.
There was a gap between Doctor Strange 2 and Thor 4 and Top Gun Maverick’s opening started 6 weeks of steady BO with Top Gun Maverick’s success leading to success for many other films. While US weekend BO was steady across those weeks rather than the weekend after Thor 4 opened saw BO drop by $100m as was the case with Doctor Strange 2 and Black Panther 2.
More concerning is since Captain America: Civil War in 2016 non-Avengers MCU films have plateaued, are taking similar BO so attracting the same audience not attracting new audiences. While 2018’s Black Panther and Spider-Man No Way Home both attracted non-comic-book fans they didn’t come back to see Wakanda Forever. The problem is the industry is blinded by the predictable $150m+ opening to see the films are taking similar BO.
This year there is a 10-week gap between Guardians of the Galaxy 3 (May 5) and The Marvels (July 28) that could be similarly as lucrative as last year’s gap between MCUs.
It’s interesting Sony, Universal and Paramount who received the most vitriol from exhibitors 2.5 years ago when they delayed films for a year or more (with others sold to streamers) are now being praised by exhibitors.
While Warner, who kept releasing films in cinemas when other studios delayed, lost billions in BO as they took less than half what they were expected to take before COVID) have received the most vitriol from exhibitors since.
The problem was there was never any plan or strategy behind the reopening of cinemas post-COVID, despite lots of research studios running around like headless chickens making it up as they went along ignoring their research. Cinemas reopened far too soon which predictably delayed the return to normal by 18 months.
The problem with other ‘saviour’ films Tenet, No Time to Die and Spider-Man No Way Home they didn’t have any major films opening soon afterwards so they just cannibalized BO in the weeks before opening and several weeks after. As seen with Chinese New Year week in February before COVID taking $1.2bn success came from half a dozen films performing strongly all playing to different demographics, this was the case with the films that opened in the 6 weeks after Top Gun; Maverick.
When the lockdown happened in 2020 believed should have been a similar National Cinema Month with each studio opening a major film that plays to different demographics over a month or more. Instead got LoveCinema a month after cinemas reopened (August 2020) the industry adored but was a damp squib then in September 2022 finally brought back National Cinema Day after 25 years but was a one-day wonder and didn’t do what the previous National Cinema Days in 1995-97 see a big increase in admissions.
Always believed that something massive was needed to relaunch cinemas when they reopened In July 2020 and May 2021, not saying this just in hindsight as I said similar in April 2020. The problem of course was exhibitors believed the hype from the ‘saviour’ films, but they were never going to do it on their own, as to get BO returning to pre-pandemic levels and growing again to 200m admissions audiences need to see many more the other 900 films that are released each year.
BO is expected to be £1.12bn this year, this will be similar to BO 10 years ago. In 2020 analysts expected BO to return to pre-pandemic levels by 2023, but now this is being pushed back to 2024. No Time To Die, Spider-Man No Way Home, Top Gun Maverick and Avatar: The Way of Water have been hugely successful, but the problem is audiences aren’t seeing many more films in cinemas unlikely they used to.
The problem is the industry has gotten very short-sighted over the last 20 years compared with the previous 20 years when it was about building audiences. UK admissions grew steadily between 1985 and 2002 but only grew 1% between 2003 and 2018 while BO increased by 68.3% as the industry’s focus changed to seeing price as a way to increase profits rather than building an audience.
UK box office in detail
This weekend’s top 10 box office took £11,210,520 down 21.8% from last weekend’s £14,337,250: 1,334,628 admissions down 24.8% from 1,774,412
465th biggest top 10 of the last 21 years (out of 1,084) between 22 August 2014 #1 Lucy £3,076,997 27.4% of top 10) and 04 January 2002 #1 LOTR: Fellowship of the Rings £5,967,910 (£11,240,259 inflated) (53.2% of top 10) and 790th biggest inflation inflated between 05 February 2016 #1 Goosebumps £2,686,105 (26.1% of top 10) and 07 September 2007 #1 Run, Fat Boy, Run £2,010,250 (28.7% of top 10).
The top 3 took £75.3% of the top 10; Avatar: The Way of Water 52.3% (£5,870,063); Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody 12.4% (£1,388,927); Roald Dahl’s Matilda The Musical 10.5% (£1,182,411);
Taking 52.4% of the top 10 it’s the 227th highest percentage #1 between 30 March 2007 Mr Beans Holiday £6,440,093 (52.4%) and 12 October 2007 Ratatouille £4,444,384 (52%).
416th biggest admissions #1 (726,377) between 08 April 2022 Fantastic Beasts 3 £5,884,934 (728,333) and 14 January 2011 The King’s Speech £4,401,926 (726,390).
Up 28.6% 2022 (£8,716,739); Licorice Pizza (£879,373); The 355 (£367,148); Boiling Point (£79,117); #1 Spider-Man No Way Home £4,477,415 4th week 26% drop 680 screens (51.4% of top 10)
2021; Lockdown
Down 48.1% from 2020 (£21,600,665); The Gentlemen 41.7% (£3,057,108); Jojo Rabbit 33% (£2,415,233); Andre Rieu: 70 Years Young 23.4% (£1,717,074); #1 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 3rd weekend £4,396,258 (20.3% of top 10)
Down 34.8% from 2019 (£17,185,874); The Favourite (£3,973,975); Andre Rieu’s 2019 New Year Concert from Sydney (£1,745,941); Welcome to Marwen (£242,156); Life Itself (£54,131); #1 Mary Poppins Returns £4,444,023 3rd week #1 718 screens 40% drop (25.8% of top 10)
Down 35.5% from 2018: (£17,391,172); Molly’s Game (£2,283,420); Hostiles (£380,718); Brad’s Status (£33,579); #1 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle £3,895,450 3rd week 1st #1 579 screens 25% drop (22.43% of the top 10)
Up 34.8% from 2017: (£17,194,216); Assassin’s Creed (£5,285,064); A Monster Calls (£1,920,744); Silence (£1,542,926); Nabucco – Met Opera 2017 (£335,390); #1 Assassin’s Creed £5,285,064 1st week 527 screens (30.7% of top 10)
Down 26% from 2016: (£15,145,367); The Hateful Eight (£2,778,633); A War (£17,356); #1 Star Wars: The Force Awakens £6,001,948 4th week 634 screens 42% drop (39.6% of top 10)
Down 43.5% from 2015; (£19,828,105); The Theory of Everything (£3,749,293); The Woman In Black: Angel of Death (£2,431,823); Birdman (£1,524,667); Enemy (£20,937); #1 The Theory of Everything £3,749,293 1st week 532 screens (18.9% of top 10)
Down 39.4% from 2014: (£18,483,581); Last Vegas (£1,811,695); Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones (£1,543,091); Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (£1,472,500); #1 American Hustle (expansion) £3,467,644 2nd week 1st #1 411 screens up 7,401% (18.7% of top 10)
Down 41.1% from 2013 (£19,026,396); The Impossible (£4,034,470); Quartet (£2,294,917); Playing for Keeps (£507,319); Chinatown (Re: 2013) (£16,138); #1 The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey £4,075,781 4th week 568 screens 41% drop (21.4% of top 10)
Down 5.7% from 2012 (£11,885,910); The Iron Lady (£2,151,368); Goon (£728,286) l; #1 Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol £2,223,200 2nd week 73% drop 517 screens (18.7% of top 10)
Down 16.5% from 2011 (£13,432,653); The King’s Speech (£3,523,102); 127 Hours (£2,168,570); The Next Three Days (£1,046,333); Season of the Witch (£559,769); It’s Kind of a Funny Story (£82,056); #1 The King’s Speech £3,523,102 1st week 395 screens (26.2% of top 10)
Down 10% from 2010: (£12,452,981); Daybreakers (£1,344,588); It’s Complicated (£1,098,659); The Road (£627,147); Sex & Drugs & Rock & Roll (£173,831); #1 Avatar £4,770,980 4th week 493 screens 20% drop (38.3% of top 10)
Down 5.5% from 2009; (£11,864,462); Role Models (£2,330,145); Slumdog Millionaire (£1,827,457); Bride Wars (£1,717,894); Defiance (£1,198,425); Sex Drive (£506,573); #1 Role Models £2,330,145 1st week £2,223,950 353 screens (19.6% of top 10)
Down 12.2% from 2008; (£12,768,659); Lust, Caution (£240,665); #1 I Am Legend £3,740,369 2nd week 458 screens 66% drop (29.3% of top 10)
Up 1.9% from 2007: (£11,003,216); Miss Potter (£1,400,943); Apocalypto (£1,360,110); Employee of the Month (£1,075,883); White Noise: The Light (£698,461); #1 Night at the Museum £2,958,093 2nd week 487 screens 62% drop (26.8% of top 10)
Up 25.5% from 2005 (£8,933,539); White Noise (£1,787,478); The Aviator (expansion) (£1,314,946); Alexander (£1,200,083); Vera Drake (£266,010); #1 White Noise £1,787,478 1st week 314 screens (201% of top 10)
Down 16.2% from 2004 (£13,698,709); Stuck On You (£1,114,837); American Splendor (£135,568); #1 Lord of the Rings: Return of the King £6,496,723 3rd week #1 498 screens 9% drop (47.4% of top 10)
Down 4.8% from 2003 (£11,773,904); Star Trek X: Nemesis (£1,957,845); City Of God (£307,177); Spider (£63,949); #1 Lord of the Rings: Two Towers 3rd-week #1 £5,774,170 502 screens 29% drop (49.1% of top 10)
Down 0.1% from 2002 £11,208,567); The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (£5,967,910); Behind Enemy Lines (£903,589); The Last Castle (£161,862); Mulholland Drive (£134,798); Monsoon Wedding (£130,466); Beauty and the Beast (£44,797); #1 The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring £5,967,910 3rd week #1 470 screens (53.2% of top 10)
Next weekend 2022 (£8,436,218); Scream (£2,468,510); #1 Spider-Man No Way Home £3,215,166 5th week 28% drop 679 screens (38.1% of top 10)
US Box Office
- Avatar: The Way of Water – Disney
Down 32% in its fourth weekend taking $45.83m and $517.62m
With IMAX taking $6m, PLF taking 13% and a third of its BO from 3D it’s those surcharges that kept Avatar 2 #1 from M3gan.
With Avatar 2 holding #1 for its 4th weekend means it will likely hold #1 until Ant-Man 3 opens in 6 weeks. This might sound good but just means BO will be soft until February, whilst Avatar 2 will be in single digits holding onto #1 over the last few weeks.
3rd biggest fourth weekend between Avatar ($50.3m) and Top Gun: Maverick ($44.65m); Spider-Man: No Way Home #8 ($32.61m); Rogue One: A Star Wars Story #36 ($22.06m);
16th biggest film between Rogue One: A Star Wars Story and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker; 47th biggest inflation inflated between Tootsie and The Dark Knight Rises; 2nd biggest 2022 between Top Gun: Maverick and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; 6th biggest sci-fi between Rogue One: A Star Wars Story and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker.
Avatar 2 comparisons with other films only can start this weekend; Avatar dropped 26.6% in the fourth weekend, The Force Awakens 53.1%, Rogue One 55.5%, The Last Jedi 54.8%, and The Rise of Skywalker 52.3%. That said with a third BO from 3D has taken far more from 3D than all of these films apart from Avatar.
As with Avengers Endgame (after taking $1.2bn in 5 days) Avatar 2 should be looking at $3bn+ 13 years on from Avatar with ticket prices up to 100% more than they were in 2009.
The average ticket price for a 3D PLF is $18.28 compared to $12.53 for 2D according to EntTelligence research (NATO has other ideas of the average being $9.18).
In 2010 Avatar dropped 26.6% taking $50.3m and $430.84m 57.5% of $749.76m with Sherlock Holmes #2 at $16.58m; Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel $16.55m #3; Daybreakers $15.14m #4; It’s Complicated #5 $11m; Leap Year $9.2m #6; The Blind Side #7 $7.53m; Up in the Air #8 $7.16m.
It took 45 days for Avatar to overtake Titanic to become the biggest film globally $2.039bn and went on to take $749.76m in the US (held #1 for 7 weeks; Titanic was #1 for 15 weeks), $1.99bn internationally and $2.743bn worldwide. It remained the biggest film globally until Avengers Endgame overtook it after 91 days of release, but after Avengers Endgame opened globally with $1.2bn over its opening weekend many expected it to overtake Avatar many weeks earlier and take over $3bn. Avatar retained its #1 global status after it was re-released in China in March 2021. (Avatar took $262m in China).
Took $132.6m (30% drop) from 52 territories $1.191bn total and $1.7bn worldwide; China $188.3m ($220m expected originally was $500m+); France $107.2m Germany $92.6m; Korea $85.6m; UK $69.1m.
Europe $548m (70% 3D/PLFs), Asia-Pacific is at $512m (74% 3D/PLFs) Latin America $131m (53% 3D/PLFs).
IMAX has taken $189.5m (11.1% from 1,453 screens) taking $122m internationally (10.2%)
2009’s Avatar took $100m+ from IMAX worldwide from 261 screens, The Dark Knight from 109 screens and then Gravity from 330 screens. Avatar 2 opened on 1,543 IMAX screens worldwide with an average price of $20.
Avatar took $143m in its fourth weekend internationally from 52 territories in 14,839 screens (didn’t open in China until Jan 4th and Italy Jan 15th) $904m total and $1.335bn worldwide; was then 2nd biggest film worldwide after Titanic ($1.84bn)
Spider-Man No Way Home took $64.4m internationally ($7m from IMAX) from 63 territories in its fourth weekend $867.5m total and $1.53bn worldwide ($94.4m worldwide from IMAX) 80.1% of $1.91bn total.
7th biggest worldwide between Spider-Man: No Way Home and Jurassic World; 3rd biggest sci-fi worldwide between Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Jurassic World.
- M3gan – Universal Pictures
Opened with $30.42m; received positive reviews (94% Rotten Tomatoes) and B CinemaScore
576th biggest opening between Night at the Museum and Olympus Has Fallen (close to Godzilla vs. Kong, John Wick: Chapter 2, John Carter an The X Files).
Took $2.75m from Thursday previews which were slightly less than Scream last year’s ($3.5m) $30m opening and slightly more than 2019’s The Escape Room’s $2.3m ($18.3m opening) but my comparison was 2018’s Insidious: The Last Key $29.58m opening. As M3gan had a very strong marketing campaign which was very social media friendly that started with the M3gan dance at the film’s premiere in early December, this was similar to Paramount’s Smile. #MeganDanceChallenage generated 1.3bn views on TikTok using hashtags #M3GAN, #M3GANMovie, and #M3GANDance.
Ahead of the opening Universal was looking at about $17m while the track was expected to open with $20m+ but felt low as Universal screened the film over a month before release believing strongly in the film. But it was surprising they opened it a week before MLK as Scream was last year, as it would have opened #1 even with Avatar 2’s surcharges.
M3gan couldn’t be compared to Avatar 2 as its BO is inflated with 3D (45%), IMAX (15%), PLF, 4DX, Dolby Cinema and ScreenX surcharges pushing an average over $16+ while M3gan is $11+. Removing those surcharges and M3gan would be #1, showing how BO has been artificially inflated with these formats.
M3gan had 2.5m admissions with an average price of $11.54 compared to Avatar 2‘s $14.60 as it didn’t have any premium formats IMAX or PLF screens.
Took $10m from 34 territories $14.8m total and $45m worldwide
- Puss in Boots: The Last Wish – Universal Pictures
Down 19% in the third weekend $13.54m and $88.12m
374th biggest third weekend between The Great Gatsby and Double Jeopardy (close to The Smurfs, E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial, Ace Ventura: When Nature Calls and How to Train Your Dragon 2).
124th biggest animated film between The Emperor’s New Groove and Peter Pan; 910th biggest film between Starsky & Hutch and Along Came Polly; 1,627th biggest inflated between Michael Jackson’s This Is It and I Love You, Man; 23rd biggest 2022 film between Where the Crawdads Sing and Scream; 127th biggest Universal Pictures film between Waterworld and Along Came Polly.
2011’s Puss In Boots dropped 25.2% in the third weekend $24.72m (in October) and $108.03m taking $149.26m and $554.98m worldwide. It was a spin-off to Shrek. The five Shrek extended universe films took $1.48bn in the US and $3.65bn worldwide and the 41 Dreamworks Animation films have taken $6bn in the US and $16bn worldwide since 1998’s Antz.
2001’s Shrek dropped 33.7% by $28.17m and $148.36m of $268.16m and $488.35m WW
2004’s Shrek 2 dropped 47.4% by $37.93m and $314.52m of $441.22m and $928.76m WW
2007’s Shrek the Third dropped 47.2% by $28.02m and $255.92m of $322.71m and $813.36m WW
2010’s Shrek Forever After dropped 41.2% by $25.48m and $183.22m of $238.73m and $752.6m WW
Took $25.9m from 77 territories and $109.7m total and $197.4m worldwide; 169th biggest animated film worldwide between Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga’Hoole and The Pirates! Band of Misfits; 1,320th biggest worldwide between Remember the Titans and Where the Crawdads Sing; 35th biggest 2022 between Scream and Where the Crawdads Sing; 175th biggest Universal Pictures between The First Purge and American Made.
- A Man Called Otto – Sony Pictures
Up 7,370% in the second weekend taking $4.2m from 633 screens (up from 4 screens) taking $4.28m
The film is due to expand further next weekend, but surprisingly studios are now opting to expand from a platform into 600+ screens as was the case with The Fablemans and Empire of Light as these films used to expand slower and expanding into 600 screens might not get the chance to expand further.
Took $4.4m from 10 territories $8.4m total and $12.7m worldwide
- Babylon – Paramount Pictures
Dropped 46% in the third weekend taking $1.41m and $13.51m
Babylon is holding similar to 2019’s Cats which dropped 27.2% n the second weekend taking $4.82m and $17.81m and 45.5% at the third weekend taking $2.63m and $24.72m of $27.16m.
Expecting Babylon would drop heavily in its third weekend Paramount pulled the film from 970 screens
Damien Chazelle’s Whiplash and La La Land had platform openings that took many weeks to go to the widest release, 16 weeks for Whiplash and 5 weeks for La La Land.
While 2018’s First Man dropped 41.6% taking $4.86m and $37.8m of $44.93m and $105.71m WW
Babylon is the latest adult-targeted drama film that has struggled to find an audience in cinemas over recent months, but unlike Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans, it was more expected for Babylon after Paramount announced in October the film would open wide on December 23rd.
Opens internationally in January
- Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody – Sony Pictures
Down 39% in the third weekend $2.41m and $19.71m
While it was never likely to hold similar to other musician biopics it should at least held stronger than 2021’s House of Gucci dropped 41.3% $4.11m and $41.08m of $53.8m and $153.26m WW
But again, just highlights the problem with BO since cinemas reopened audiences aren’t coming out to see films like I Wanna Dance with Somebody as they would have done pre-pandemic. As only need to look at BO from the first week in January 2020 when were 6 films taking $10m (Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker; Jumanji: The Next Level Little Women; Frozen 2; The Grudge and Spies in Disguise).
Weekend BO $95.72m was down 43% from 2017 the last 53-week year ($166.38m) and close to 2000s $98.77m when Stuart Little 2 #1 $16m. Until the industry realises “saviour” films don’t work as audiences need to see a wide mix of films nothing will improve. Normally this time of the year audiences will go to the cinema far more and see a wider mix of films.
The film opened 30 years after Whitney Huston starred in The Bodyguard dropped 33.1% in the second weekend and $40.32m of $122.04m and $411.04m WW
Took $4.6m from 46 territories $21.8m total and $41.5m worldwide
UK Box Office Top 10
UK Box Office Preview
As in the US last weekend Avatar 2 faces its first major competition with the arrival of M3gan, but as with the US 3D/IMAX and PLF surcharges will keep it from #1 in its fifth weekend. With the strong buzz from the US and positive reviews, M3gan should open with £2m+ similar to last year’s Scream (£2,468,510); Smile (£1,860,452); The Invisible Man (£2,163,797).
M3gan is like a modern-day Chucky film.
1989’s Child’s Play opened £165,971 #3 from 160 screens (taking £100,954 and £372,968 in second weekend) taking £493,521
1991’s Child’s Play 2 opened £212,383 #5 from 141 screens taking £391,549
Sam Mendes’s Empire of Light has generated a lot of media coverage since his interview with Laura Kuenssberg on Sunday saying “The 20th century, the great era of movies, the great entertainment form which was going out to the movies – that is dying…. I look back at my films and I think American Beauty, Revolutionary Road, Away We Go, would all go to streaming now and that makes me sad.”… “You look at the multiplexes and people go ‘there are six screens’ and then you go to those six screens and it says, ‘screen one Avatar, screen two Avatar, screen three Avatar’ – that’s not a six-screen cinema; that’s just six screens showing the same movie.”
Three years ago, Sam Mendes 1917 was a film that opened on screens 1-3 as his two previous films SPECTRE and Skyfall, but sadly Empire of Light is relegated to screen 4 of many multiplexes. The film received mixed reviews but being a “British” film with a British cast has generated strong media coverage and will get the “Brit boost” at the BO but won’t be as successful as his recent films.
Empire of Light is Sam Mendes’s 9th film and first since the 2020s 1917
2020’s 1917 opened £7,446,302 taking £43,946,049
2009’s Away We Go opened £250,211
2009’s Revolutionary Road opened £1,013,548 taking £2,751,902
2000’s American Beauty opened £2,836,678 taking £21,385,440
2006’s Jarheads opened £1,927,987 taking £5,155,997
2002’s Road to Perdition opened £1,318,382 taking £6,471,752
He also of course directed Bond films Skyfall and Spectre.
While the 1990’s Cinema Paradiso took £1,022,000; started on platform release opening at Curzon Mayfair £23,416.
Opening in two weeks
- The Fabelmans – eOne
Coming-of-age drama semi-autobiographical story loosely based on Spielberg’s first years as a filmmaker. Starring Gabriel LaBelle, Michelle Williams, Paul Dano, Seth Rogen and Judd Hirsch and is directed by Steven Spielberg.
Had a world premiere at the Toronto Film Festival winning the People’s Choice Award and received widespread critical acclaim (91% Rotten Tomatoes), named one of the best films of 2022 by the National Board of Review and the American Film Institute and received 5 Golden Globe nominations including Best Film and Best Director. (Won Best Film and Best Director)
The film opened on platform release November 11th with $161,579 from 4 screens but didn’t expand further until two weeks later losing momentum, expanding into 638 screens over Thanksgiving with $2.26m and then expanding further into 1,122 screens December 23rd. It was one of several adult dramas that struggled to find an audience in US cinemas in the autumn, it
- Plane – Lionsgate
Action-thriller starring Gerard Butler, Mike Colter, Yoson An, and Tony Goldwyn and directed by Jean-François Richet.
Lionsgate acquired the film in 2019 and then it was sold to Solstice Studios in 2020 but was re-acquired by Lionsgate in 2021.
Gerald Butler has starred in many action films starring as the leading seaman in 1997’s Tomorrow Never Dies and more recently Olympus Has Fallen trilogy, Geostorm and Greenland. His films are regularly dismissed by critics, but cinemagoers enjoy them as they are popcorn movies and the trailer for Plane is one of the craziest trailers over recent years (along with Cocaine Bear and Shotgun Wedding).
2019’s Angel Has Fallen opened £2,122,408 taking £7,456,528
2016’s London Has Fallen opened £3,229,675 (including £511,336 previews) taking £10,831,576
2013’s Olympus Has Fallen opened £2,247,900 (including £851,675 previews) taking £6,131,193
Likely to open similar to 2021’s £198,225; 2018’s Den of Thieves £1,082,560 taking £2,790,151; 2018’s Mile 22 £795,888 taking £1,420,868; 2019’s 21 Bridges £655,213 taking £1,508,195
2017’s Geostorm opened £1,625,895 taking £4,217,525
- Unwelcome – Warner Bros
Horror starring Hannah John-Kamen, Douglas Booth, Jamie-Lee O’Donnell, Colm Meaney, and Kristian Nairn and directed by Jon Wright (he described the film as Gremlins meets Straw Dogs).
It was originally due to be released in February and then October 2021. Warner Bros acquired UK rights in October 2020 then called The Little People.
