- Smile – £1,860,452 – NE
Took £392k from previews Wed/Thurs (21% of opening)
Had 877th biggest opening between Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets and Nope (close to Forrest Gump, Edge of Tomorrow, Ghost Rider and Insidious: The Last Key) and 1,398th biggest inflation inflated between The Adjustment Bureau and Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters (close to Mama, The Hills Have Eyes, Beetlejuice and Misery).
53rd biggest horror opening between Hereditary and Nope (close to The Invisible Man, Drag Me to Hell, Jeepers Creepers and 28 Days Later) and 92nd biggest inflation-inflated horror opening between The Hills Have Eyes and Nope (close to Nightmare on Elm Steet III, Blair Witch 2, Poltergeist 2 and The Fly).
26th biggest 2022 opening between Nope and Where The Crawdads Sing (close to Jackass Forever, Death on the Nile, The Black Phone and Moonfall).
Took £1,467,999 Fri-Sun 1,020th biggest Fri-Sun opening between Blood Diamond and Space Jam (close to Saw II, Annabelle Comes Home, Contagion and Poltergeist).
Smile was based on a 10-minute short film, there have been several other horrors that also were based on a short film including The Evil Dead (£1,375,842); Saw (£1,239,813); Mama (£1,512,297); The Babadook (£347,512); Oculus (£413,578); Darkness Falls (£483,739) and Lights Out (£1,126,543)
What helped Smile break out was its very strong marketing campaign which went viral and the success of recent female horrors Scream and Bodies, Bodies, Bodies. Horror has had a long history of films with a female lead with Jamie Lee Curtis returning for her last Halloween film later this month 44 years after the first film.
Other films include The Invisible Man (2020); The Others (2001); Hereditary (2018); The Silence of the Lambs (1991); Pan’s Labyrinth (2006); It Follows (2014); The Orphanage (2007); The Witch (2015); The Babadook (2014); Ready Or Not (2019); Drag Me To Hell (2007); Don’t Breathe (2016); Happy Death Day (2017), but as Smile was an 18 makes it harder to compare with many other horror films as the majority are now 15. It used to be almost every horror was an 18 but over the last 20 years majority are now 15s so aren’t scary enough for real horror fans as they were targetting teenagers.
Similar horrors include (originals not reboots)
2003’s The Ring opened £2,200,084 (£4,003,756 inflation inflated) taking £9,246,275 (£16,826,555 inflation inflated)
1997’s Scream opened £1,070,532 (£1,872,660 inflation inflated) taking £8,247,094 (£16,372,609 inflation inflated)
2004’s The Grudge opened £2,261,710 (£4,070,071 inflation inflated) taking £7,743,528 (£13,934,901 inflation inflated)
Smile will likely be front-loaded dropping 60% in its second weekend
- 2. Don’t Worry Darling – £1,835,165 – £6,194,764
Down 33% in its second weekend; holding far stronger in the UK than in the US showing the film is playing to a wider demographic.
Preview BO again stopped Don’t Worry Darling being #1 with only £25,287 separating it with Smile which was inflated with £392k from two days of previews, last weekend £33,680 separated Don’t Worry Darling with Ticket To Paradise which took £1.12m from previews. Openings being inflated with previews makes it impossible to make direct comparisons with many film openings, as you can’t just remove preview BO as most who go to previews would have gone to see it Fri-Sun.
Had 478th biggest second weekend between Paranormal Activity and The Nun (close to The Devil Wears Prada, Wedding Crashers, Snatch and Vanilla Sky) and 859th biggest inflation inflated between The Talented Mr Ripley and Knives Out (close to Sleeping With The Enemy, Get Shorty, Natural Born Killers and Pulp Fiction).
Received world premiere at the Venice International Film Festival getting a mixed response, was the wrong place to launch a film like Don’t Worry Darling, this was similar with Dear Evan Hanson and Halloween Kills and this year also with Bros. Toronto and Venice Film Festivals are great for launching prestige award contenders, but for films that are targetting mainstream younger audiences, they often do more damage than good.
Second weekends
2003’s The Stepford Wives (remake) dropped 52.4% taking £471,153 and £2,361,911 62.7% of £3,766,378 (£6,777,803 inflation inflated)
1998’s The Truman Show dropped 23.7% taking £1,687,037 and £4,855,367 48.9% of £9,929,680 (£19,908,639 inflation inflated)
1990’s The Vanishing (Dutch original received critical acclaim) took £81,485
1993’s The Vanishing took £1,218,848
1996’s Fear took £235,024
2018’s A Simple Favour dropped 38.2% taking £1,001,620 and £3,407,225 69.1% of £4,930,383
While Warner Bros compared the film with 2015’s Focus dropped 31.2% taking £1,312,963 and £4,253,274 57.9% of £7,350,427
Olivia Wilde’s previous film 2019’s Booksmart took £1.5m.
With films like Don’t Worry Darling and Where The Crawdads Sing, both getting poor reviews but being embraced by female audiences, they aren’t films that audiences rush out to see so likely to have longer legs (as seen by Where The Crawdads Sing taking 46% of its £8.2m BO within first 10 days (Top Gun: Maverick took similar percentage in 12 days) most films (apart from animation) take between 55%-60%), while has taken 5.9x opening (comparable with Belfast, Operation Mincemeat and Elvis).
- 3 Ticket To Paradise – £1,337,216 – £5,169,609
Down 52.3% in its second weekend (21% not including previews)
Had the 717th biggest second weekend between The Boss Baby 2 and Jerry Maguire (close to Ghost, Juno, Bride Wars and Focus) and 1,206th biggest inflation inflated between Layer Cake and The Fighter (close to Ruthless People, The Thomas Crown Affair, Housesitter and Romeo and Juliet).
17th biggest second weekend of 2022 between Death on the Nile and Scream (close to Downtown Abbey 2, The Lost City, Nope and Where The Crawdads Sing).
1,285th biggest film between Mickey Blue Eyes and Presumed Innocent (close to Cocktail, Honey, I Blew Up the Kid, Just Go With it and Cruel Intentions) and 1,758th biggest inflation between Game Night and White House Down (close to Steel Magnolias, Over the Top, Sneakers and Sex, Lies and Videotape).
27th biggest film of 2022 between The Duke and Everything Everywhere All at Once (close to Where The Crawdads Sing, Don’t Worry Darling, Operation Mincemeat and See How They Run).
37th biggest second-weekend rom-com between The Break-Up and Forgetting Sarah Marshall (close to Bend It Like Beckham, Four Weddings and a Funeral, Runaway Bride and My Best Friend’s Wedding) and 76th biggest inflation-inflated rom-com between Bounty Hunter and Boomerang (close to One Fine Day, When Harry Met Sally, French Kiss and Green Card).
78th biggest rom-com between Miss Congeniality 2 and 13 Going On 30 (close to America’s Sweethearts, Crazy Rich Asians, Groundhog Day and 500 Days of Summer) and 113th biggest inflation-inflated rom-com between Honey and Bedazzled (close to 10 Things I Hate About You, The Secret of My Success, Michael and Definitely, Maybe).
After opening very similar to The Lost City (taking £62,404 more £2,805,615 Vs £2,743,211) had a very similar second weekend taking £1,372,328 down 50% and £5,633,575 53.1% of £10,606,648
Three weeks ago George Clooney said at the UK premiere ‘The whole country was experiencing a “tough time”, and he was happy in his role as a dispenser of frothy cinematic delights to be “a ray of sunshine” for everyone.’
Rom-coms have struggled at the box office over the last decade as they were 32 years ago when they were at their peak when Julia Roberts starred in Pretty Woman.
Selective George Clooney films
1997’s One Fine Day dropped 28.8% taking £839,942 (£1,667,502 inflation inflated) and £2,918,117 44.3% of £6,277,048 and (£12,461,560 inflation inflated) 5.32x opening. The film disappointed in the US opening the week after Jerry Maguire in December 1996 and opened in the UK 8 months later in July 1997
2003’s Intolerable Cruelty dropped 33.6% taking £1,032,417 (£1,878,813 inflation inflated) and £3,682,322 56.9% of £6,465,278 (£11,765,641 inflation inflated) 4.2x opening;
1998’s Out of Sight dropped 42.7% taking £497,920 (£998,311 inflation inflated) and £1,805,528 56.4% of £3,166,201 (£6,348,115 inflation inflated) 3.6x opening
2010s Up In The Air dropped 7.1% taking £1,205,881 and £3,282,512 58.8% of £5,580,729
Selective Julia Roberts films
While Julia Roberts 1990’s Pretty Woman dropped 2.9% taking £779,540 (£2,241,524 inflation inflated) and £2,131,378 17.7% of £11,990,862 (£34,479,062 inflation inflated) 14.92x opening;
1997’s My Best Friend’s Wedding dropped 6.8% taking £1,605,271 (£3,132,993 inflation inflated) 29.6% of £8,488,511 (£16,851,884 inflation inflated);
1999’s Runaway Bride dropped 29.4% taking £1,165,167 (£2,236,235 inflation inflated) and £3,637,419 48.1% of £7,562,023 (£14,513,336 inflation inflated) 4.6x opening; 5.96x opening
2001’s America’s Sweethearts dropped 44% taking £961,575 (£1,876,697 inflation inflated) and £3,789,432 67.2% of £5,637,933 (£11,003,502 inflation inflated) 3.3x opening.
George Clooney and Julia Roberts previously worked together on 2001’s Ocean’s Eleven 2003’s Confessions of a Dangerous Mind (took £1,038,201) 2004’s Ocean’s Twelve 2016’s Money Monster (took £2,387,743);
Julia Roberts was a massive global star in the 90s it’s been a while since she has had a hit film, have to go back to Mirror, Mirror in 2012 and Eat Pray Love in 2010. Similarly have to go back a decade for George Clooney as while he starred alongside Sandra Bullock in Gravity he wasn’t in for long so it’s going back to The Descendants and Up In the Air.
The producers called Ticket To Paradise a sorta sequel to a film released about 20 years ago which would be 1999’s Notting Hill took £30,765,273 (£59,045,940 inflation inflated) 7.12x opening or 1994’s Four Weddings and a Funeral took £27,762,648 (£69,022,214 inflation inflated) 19.4x opening.
While Ol Parker previously directed 2018’s Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again and wrote screenplays for the two The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel films.
2012’s The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel increased 5.4% taking £2,342,095 and £7,014,101 34.5% of £20,308,480 (£25,760,207 inflation inflated)
2015’s The Second-Best Exotic Marigold Hotel dropped 48.1% taking £1,957,256 and £8,640,646 55.5% of £15,575,797
It took $9.6m from 59 territories and $45.3m after three weeks of opening in the US on October 21st.
- 4 Mrs Harris Goes To Paris – £807,817 – NE
1,705th biggest opening between Changing Lanes and US Marshalls (close to Gosford Park, The Guernsey Literary and Potato Peel Pie Society, Enigma and Finding Neverland) and 1,959th biggest inflation-inflated opening between True Romance and My Cousin Vinny (close to Emma (1996), The Road to Wellsville, Circle of Friends and The Madness Of King George).
Mrs Harris Goes To Paris targets the “Grey Pound” demographic so will likely perform as strongly Mon-Thurs as it did Fri-Sun. This audience has been very slow to return to cinemas since they reopened as seen with Downton Abbey: A New Era talking far less than the original film. Opened in a wide 662 screens similar to The Duke 651 screens.
Grey pound films are often released in Sept/Oct with films including Victoria & Abdul, Hampstead, The Lady in the Van, Woman in Gold,
2022’s The Duke opened £992,659 taking £5,283,515
Opened ahead of 2015’s Woman In Gold £494,512 #7 (from 226 screens); 2019’s Mr Holmes £741,080 #4 from 489 screens taking £2,268,824 and 2017’s My Cousin Rachel #6 £637,704 taking £2,361,939 from 374 screens but less than 2019’s The Good Liar £960,536 taking £3,844,314 taking £2,825,294; Notes on a Scandal (£1,141,364) and The Queen (£856,273).
Mrs Harris Goes To Paris should hold strong in its second weekend, that said with The Lost Prince opening that could see it dropping more than normal.
- 5.Ponniyin Selvan: I – £742,380 – NE
Had the biggest opening for a Bollywood film in 2022 ahead of K.G.F: Chapter 2 (£612k); RRR (£650k); Brahmastra Part 1: Shiva £516k
RRR opened in March with £650,204 #2 from 160 screens
Bollywood has grown in popularity in the UK over the last decade, over the last few months Paramount released Gangubai Kathiawadi opening with £243,848 #11 from 150 screens taking £583,079 from 62 screens also Bheemla Nayak opened £146,671 from 35 screens; Radhe Shyam opened £186,705 #9 from 124 screens.
Also released
- Avatar (re-release) – Disney
Dropped 39.7% in the second weekend taking £734,932 #6 and £2,408,255 from 535 screens with 85% of BO from 3D and IMAX 3D from 51 cinemas
Analysts have called the re-release of Avatar successful as it has been compared with Spider-Man No Way Home and Avengers Endgame, but both were encore re-releases at the end of their theatrical release. While Avatar was more like a Disney animation re-release of their classics or similar to 3D releases of Titanic, The Lion King and Star Wars The Phantom Menace.
Other wide re-releases include
2012’s Star Wars: The Phantom Menace 3D dropped 73% taking £404,962 (£549,932 inflation inflated) and £4,811,649 91% of £5,287,849 (£7,180,810 inflation inflated)
2012’s Titanic 3D dropped 36% taking £1,809,737 (£2,295,553 inflation inflated) and £8,005,203 73% of £10,964,978 (£13,908,481 inflation inflated); 3.85x opening
2011’s The Lion King 3D dropped 30.6% taking £1,906,686 (£2,542,248 inflation inflated) and £5,949,479 49% of £12,154,600 (£16,206,133 inflation inflated); 4.45x opening
1998’s The Exorcist dropped 46% £1,179,724 (£2,365,303 inflation inflated) and £5,104,927 71% of £7,143,595 (£14,322,642 inflation inflated) 3.3x opening;
2000’s A Clockwork Orange dropped 43% £351,100 (£685,239 inflation inflated) and £1,328,744 78% of £1,694,263 (£3,306,678 inflation inflated) 2.75x opening
In the 80s and 90s before Disney got into the reimagination game, they would regularly re-release one of their animated classics and they would always find an audience as cinemagoers always enjoyed seeing them in the cinema e.g.: 1993’s The Jungle Book took £6,924,777 (£17,430,591 inflation inflated) 12x opening.
When Avatar opened in 2009 average price for regular 2D screenings was £5.44, industry average has gone up almost 50% since to £8.08 but that only tells half the story as 90%+ of the BO for Avatar was from 3D and IMAX (IMAX took more from 9 cinemas than Avatar took in 2D from 300 for most weeks) BFI IMAX average was £12.90 (sold 47k tickets in advance taking £607k) with normal cinemas charging about a third than £5.44 average (£8+).
For the 2022 re-release BFI IMAX tickets were £18+ up 40% and were showing on 50 other IMAX screens across the UK including Cineworld Leicester Square (£25) and 21 4DX (£24.50), with most tickets across the country about twice the industry average.
Avatar was re-released in cinemas ahead of the release of Avatar: The Way of Water finally opening in December, it feels a very long time since Avatar was released in 2009 and can the sequel possibly be as successful as the original film and have the legs of the original film.
Avatar opened in December 2009 with £8,509,050 (£11,555,147 inflation inflated) £8,509,050 had the 3rd biggest opening of 2009 behind Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince and The Twilight Saga: New Moon. Avatar was the biggest opening for a non-franchise movie since 2008’s Hancock £9.59m (including previews) was #1 for 7 weeks knocked off by Valentine’s Day for a week before returning #1 for another 2 weeks being knocked off again by Alice In Wonderland in its 12th weekend due to losing a vast proportion of 3D screens 299 to 132.
Avatar took 79% (£6,722,149) of opening weekend from 3D and IMAX 3D with 21% (£1,786,900) from 2D.
Avatar dropped 55% in its second weekend taking £3,828,123 and £18,404,659 with Alvin And The Chipmunks II opening with £5,347,191 (including £1,018,218 previews) so there was no indication that the film was going to have the legs it was going to have from its third weekend to be the success it was going to be which was similar the case with The Greatest Showman.
Stayed in the top 10 for 15 weeks and top 15 for 16 weeks dropping heavily in week 12 when Alice In Wonderland opened at #1 at £10,555,220 taking all the 3D screens Avatar had for the previous 11 and after the previous 11 weeks taking over £2m dropped 60% taking £908,049 and £88,748,017. When a film holds #1 for over 6 weeks it drops out of the chart within a few weeks, it was different with Top Gun Maverick as it was only #1 for 2 weeks.
While the original film was a massive hit there are big questions over if the sequel can match the success of the original film as it hasn’t dated that well seen by many as Dances With Smurfs.
While the plot is very similar to 1991’s Dances with Wolves took £10,598,273 (£28,262,061 inflation inflated) taking 30.35x opening with opening 10 days taking a similar 19.5% of the opening.
1995’s Pocahontas took £10,518,123 (£24,421,389 inflation inflated) taking 8x opening
1992’s FernGully: The Last Rainforest took £411,338 (the film had opened in the US in April opening $3.54m and flopped so given a limited release in the UK)
Ahead of the re-release of Avatar James Cameron said that “Young film fans never had the opportunity to see the film in a movie theatre,” and “Even though they think they may have seen the film, they really haven’t seen it.” Sounding like he was quoting from the 1996 Star Wars re-release trailer ‘for an entire generation people have experienced Avatar the only way it’s been possible on the TV screen, but if you’ve only seen it this way you haven’t seen it at all.”
Avatar re-release can only really be compared with the Star Wars trilogy 1997 re-release;
Star Wars; A New Hope Special Edition dropped 37.1% £2,372,863 (£4,710,745 inflation inflated) taking £8,814,684 54% of £16,343,172(£32,445,413 inflation inflated)
The Empire Strikes Back dropped 35.2% £1,310,433 (£2,557,560 inflation inflated) taking £4,123,678 57.4% of £7,183,898 (£14,020,748 inflation inflated)
Return of the Jedi dropped 52.6% £803,593 (£1,568,365 inflation inflated) £3,119,261 63.8% of £4,885,138 (£9,534,279 inflation inflated).
Early tracking for Avatar: The Way Of Water expects it to take about 30% less than the original film, the same is expected for the Black Panther sequel, this was expected for both as is that both won’t have the legs of the original films, while Avatar The Way of Water will open with more than double original film.
Film News
Cineworld reported third quarter admissions for this year have been lower than expected, but expected the fourth quarter to be stronger due to Black Adam, Black Panther Wakanda and Avatar: The Way of Water, but still doesn’t believe cinema admissions won’t return to normal until 2025. This is surprising as other analysts are expecting admissions to return to pre-pandemic levels in 2023 with UK BO expected to be closer to 2019 levels in 2023.
The question is why Cineworld have said they won’t return to normal until 2025 as the films being released in 2023 and 2024 will be no different from the films that will open in 2025 lots more comic-book movies, reimaginations, sequels and reboots. If Cineworld believes admissions will still be low over the next two years then surely do something different to get audiences returning sooner, as Cineworld Day in February and National Cinema Day showed people do enjoy going to the cinema the issue has always been about price, but prices have been creeping up for the last 20 years.
While what’s probably eating into Cineworld’s profits is subscription cinema for £20.90 a month can go to the cinema unlimited times a month, as the ticket price for many cinemas is close to £15 going more than twice a month gets costly and many will go a dozen or more times a month. Cineworld still have to pay the distributor a negotiated fee per ticket for subscription cinema and for a film like Top Gun Maverick which wasn’t expected to take £83m is probably a lot more than an MCU film and many Unlimited subscribers have probably seen Top Gun Maverick in cinemas a dozen times.
2022 BO was $5.6bn at the end of September overtaking 2021’s $4.5bn, this is about half of the $11.4bn taken in 2019, September had the lowest BO (not including 2020) since 1996 taking $328m (September 2021 took $367m thanks mostly to Shang-Chi).
Much is expected from Halloween Ends, Black Adam, Black Panther Wakanda and Avatar: The Way Of Water. But early tracking for Black Adam is expected to open with $60m-70m taking $328m, with Black Panther Wakanda taking $423m about 40% less than 2018’s Black Panther similar to The Batman and Doctor Strange 2.
In 2018 Black Panther became more than a comic-book movie attracting many who didn’t go to see comic-book movies, but the sequel is likely to perform like all other MCU films. While it also has to deal with the Qatar World Cup starting two weeks after it opens.
Avatar: The Way of Water is expected to take $650m+ less than Avatar ($772m) despite opening 12 years later and ticket prices have almost doubled as many more people will see Avatar: The Way of Water in IMAX than they did in 2009 as are hundreds more IMAX cinemas (in the UK Avatar opened in 9 IMAX cinemas while Avatar 2 will open in at least 51 with about 20%+ of its opening from IMAX). Avatar: The Way of Water will open with twice as much as the first film but will be much more front-loaded. That said with the World Cup Final on December 18th and 1bn+ watching worldwide this will surely impact its Sunday opening weekend BO.
Analysts have predicted the four major releases will take about $1.2bn which will see 2022’s BO $7bn+.
UK box office in detail
This weekend’s top 10 box office took £8,353,283 down 3.4% from last weekend’s £8,643,800; admissions 991,861 down 4.2% from 1,000,195 admissions
742nd biggest top 10 of the last 21 years (out of 1,068) between 28 February 2003 #1 The Ring £1,692,154 20.2% of top 10) and 02 December 2011 #1 Arthur Christmas £1,896,595 (22.7% of top 10) and 965th biggest inflation inflated between 28 September 2018 #1 Night School £1,596,377 (21.4% of top 10) and 17 September 2010 #1 The Other Guys £1,980,601 (32.4% of top 10);
Top 3 took £5,032,833 60.2% of the top 10; Smile 22.3% (£1,860,452); Don’t Worry Darling 22% (£1,835,165); Ticket To Paradise 16% (£1,337,216);
Down 70.3% from 2021 (£28,089,047); No Time To Die (£25,916,476); #1 No Time To Die £25,916,476 773 screens 1st week (92.3% of top 10)
Up 217.2% from 2020 (£2,633,473); Cats & Dogs: Paws Unite! (£456,532); The Elfkins (£131,374); On The Rocks (£93,821); David Attenborough: A Life On Our Planet (£92,052); #1 Tenet £628,247 6th week down 3% 542 screens (23.4% of top 10)
Down 8.4% from 2019 (£9,120,747); Ready Or Not (£947,958); The Goldfinch (£320,849); #1 Downton Abbey £2,682,080 3rd week 18% drop 722 screens (29.4% of top 10);
Up 11.8% from 2018: (£7,468,933); Night School (£1,596,377); The Wife (£392,635); #1 Night School £1,596,377 1st week 452 screens (21.37% of top 10)
Down 14.2% from 2017: (£9,737,689); Goodbye Christopher Robin (£781,110); Flatliners (£486,721); Home Again (£484,124); #1 Kingsman: The Golden Circle £4,187,105 2nd week 620 down 51% (42.9% of the top 10)
Down 36.1% from 2016: (£13,075,476); Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children (£3,473,781); Deepwater Horizon (£1,984,340); Supersonic (£542,263); Free State of Jones (£118,635); Swiss Army Man (£80,403); #1 Bridget Jones’s Baby £4,807,165 3rd week 646 screens 26% drop (36.7% of the top 10)
Down 26.4% from 2015; (£11,352,036); The Martian (£6,531,734); The Intern (£758,713); Macbeth (£746,642); Il Trovatore – Met Opera 2015 (£234,387); Dragon Ball Z: Resurrection ‘F’ (£151,087); #1 The Martian £6,531,734 1st week 582 screens (57.5% of top 10)
Down 22.1% from 2014: (£10,716,576); Gone Girl (£4,109,628); Dracula Untold (£1,713,283); Bang Bang (£602,193); Dolphin Tale 2 (£536,766); Life After Beth (£53,427); #1 Gone Girl £4,109,628 1st week 549 screens (33% drop (38.3% of top 10)
Up 30% from 2013: (£6,429,080); Prisoners (£1,365,527); Blue Jasmine (£833,798); Runner (£764,886); Filth (£247,860); The Wicker Man (Re: 2013) (£14,817); Girl Most Likely (£90,810); Austenland (£12,384); #1 Prisoners £1,365,527 1st week 400 screens (21.2% of top 10)
Up 9.3% from 2012 (£7,641,350); Looper (£2,427,994); Resident Evil: Retribution (£792,265); The Campaign (£772,102); Holy Motors (£66,087); #1 Looper £2,427,994 1st week 449 screens 12% drop (31.7% of top 10)
Up 60.7% from 2011 (£5,198,264); Abduction (£900,782); The Phantom of the Opera (25th Anniversary Concert) (£550,955); The Debt (£417,977); Shark Night 3D (£416,770); What’s Your Number? (£320,331); Melancholia (£132,437); Red State (£105,753); #1 Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy £1,064,901 3rd week 465 screens 49% drop (20.4% of top 10)
Up 31.1% from 2010: (£6,372,852); Buried (£820,631); Made in Dagenham (£674,059); Back to the Future (Re) (£461,194); Takers (£208,390); The Secret of Kells (£6,151); #1 The Other Guys £976,459 3rd week 427 screens 4% drop (15.3% of top 10)
Up 4.7% from 2009; (£7,977,997); The Invention of Lying (£1,735,326); Toy Story 3D (£1,395,209); Pandorum (£346,097); #1 Fame £1,786,358 2nd week 460 screens (22.4% of top 10)
Up 33.2% from 2008; (£6,269,596); How to Lose Friends and Alienate People (£1,154,607); Brideshead Revisited (£375,270); Fly Me to the Moon 3-D (£311,791); 88 Minutes (£92,761); #1 How to Lose Friends and Alienate People £1,154,607 1st week 451 screens (18.4% of top 10)
Up 34.6% from 2007: (£6,203,477); Halloween (£620,844); Michael Clayton (£601,196); The Brave One (£497,838); Mr Woodcock (£483,017); War (£207,091); Mrs Ratcliffe’s Revolution (£15,600); Hot Rod (£44,241); Across the Universe (£27,471); #1 Run, Fat Boy, Run £988,788 4th week 398 screens 18% drop (15.9% of top 10)
Up 2.3% from 2006; (£8,159,980); Click (£1,797,073); Hoodwinked (£1,764,419); World Trade Centre (£1,667,589); Life and Lyrics (£95,724); #1 Click £1,797,073 1st week 402 screens (22.1% of top 10)
Up 16.5% from 2004 (£7,170,652); Saw (£1,239,813); Layer Cake (£1,090,561); Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow (£628,808); Man About Dog (£134,924); The Life and Death of Peter Sellers (£125,748); De-Lovely (£117,789); Dead Man’s Shoes (£44,361); #1 Wimbledon £1,499,011 2nd week 446 screens 12% drop (20.9% of top 10)
Down 2.2% from 2003 (£8,536,497); Bad Boys 2 (£3,175,258); Down With Love (£599,047); Bright Young Things (£327,293); Finding Nemo (platform) (£152,793); #1 Bad Boys 2 £3,175,258 1st week 383 screens (37.2% of top 10)
Up 18.8% from 2002 (£7,031,358); Road To Perdition (expansion (£1,318,382); Van Wilder (£707,783); Divine Secrets Of The Ya-Ya Sisterhood (£124,269); #1 Signs £1,877,796 3rd week 431 screens 29% drop (26.8% of top 10)
Up 18.5% from 2001 (£7,048,276); Mike Bassett: England Manager (£835,219); Enigma (£796,776); The Score (£736,742); The Brothers (E59,542); #1 A.I. £1,556,911 2nd week 430 screens 32% drop (22.1% of top 10);
Next weekend 2021 (£18,399,057); The Addams Family 2 (£2,009,785); #1 No Time To Die £15,235,947 2nd week (82.8% of top 10)
US Box Office
- Smile – Paramount Pictures
Opened with $22.6m; received mixed reviews (81% Rotten Tomatoes) and B- CinemaScore
Took $2m from Thursday midnights similar to M. Night Shyamalan’s Old $1.5m and The Black Phone $3m.
25% came from PLF screens
870th biggest opening between The Time Machine and Bridge to Terabithia (close to Insidious: Chapter 3, Poltergeist, Saw 3D and Candyman) and similar to The Black Phone $23.63m
The $17m film had a very strong marketing campaign which went viral, it was originally made for Paramount+ but was given a theatrical release after high test scores and Paramount’s slate being front-loaded.
Almost 70% of its audience was between 18-34 so will likely be very front-loaded with a heavy second-weekend drop similar to Don’t Worry Darling.
Opened with $14.5m from 58 territories and $36.5m worldwide
- Bros – Universal Pictures
Opened with $4.85m; received positive reviews (96% Rotten Tomatoes) and A CinemaScore
Took $500k from Thursday midnights
It’s the first LGBTQ studio comedy and has been generating strong buzz for weeks but was surprisingly tracking to open in single numbers, but opened even lower than expected, as always when a film underperforms industry asks why, Billy Eichner posted on Twitter “Even with glowing reviews, great Rotten Tomatoes scores, an A CinemaScore, etc., straight people, especially in certain parts of the country, just didn’t show up for Bros. And that’s disappointing but it is what it is.”
2018’s Love Simon opened $11.75m taking $40.82m and $66.31m worldwide; Love Simon premiered at SXSW, while Bros premiered at Toronto Film Festival which wasn’t the right film festival to launch a mainstream comedy. Bros were originally set to open on August 12th which would have been a far better release date for the film.
While 1996’s The Birdcage opened $18.27m taking $124.06m and $185.26m worldwide
Director Nicholas Stoller has had strong success in comedies over the last decade
2008’s Forgetting Sarah Marshall opened $17.72m taking $63.17m and $105.83m worldwide
In the 2010s Get Him to the Greek opened $17.57m taking $60.97m and $91.72m worldwide
2012’s The Five-Year Engagement opened $10.61m taking $28.83m and $54.16m worldwide
2014’s Neighbors opened $49.03m taking $150.15m and $270.66m worldwide
- Don’t Worry Darling – Warner Bros
Dropped 65% taking $6.84m and $32.35m
2018’s A Simple Favour dropped 36% taking $10.25m and $32.41m and $97.64m worldwide)
Oliva Wilde’s 2019’s Booksmart opened $6.93m taking $22.68m
Dropped 40% in internationally taking $6.4m and $21.9m from 63 territories and $54.7m globally
- Avatar – Disney
Down 52% in the second weekend $5.01m and $18.1m;
97% of the BO came from 3D/IMAX; EntTelligence reported an average price of $15.51
Including re-release Avatar has now taken $779.41m 4th biggest film in the US between Spider-Man No Way Home and Top Gun: Maverick; 5th biggest inflation inflated between Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Star Wars: The Empire Strikes Back.
Comparisons were made with other recent re-releases Avengers Endgame $6.1m and Spider-Man No Way Home $5.4m, but can’t be compared with any of these other re-releases, as they were encore re-releases months after opening just targeting fans for one more time, it needed to be compared with Star Wars 1997 re-release as it was done to build up hype for the next instalment.
As James Cameron while promoting Avatar re-released said that a decade of cinemagoers haven’t experienced Avatar in cinemas this was similar to the re-release campaign of Star Wars, then it needs to be compared with Star Wars 1997 re-release, which it was nowhere near despite being 25 years ago and industry average up almost 100% since ($4.69 to $9.38).
Second weekends in 1997
A New Hope dropped 32.4% taking $24.27m and $70.75m of $138.25m
The Empire Strikes Back dropped 40.2% taking $13.14m and $40.22m of $67.58m
Return of the Jedi dropped 53.9% taking $7.51m taking $27.5m of $45.47m
Retro-fitted into 3D Second weekends
2012’s Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace 3D dropped 64.5% taking $7.96m and $33.83m of $43.45m
2012’s The Lion King 3D dropped 27.3% taking $21.92m and $61.47m of $94.24m
2012’s Titanic 3D dropped 31% taking $11.93m and $44.72m of $57.85m
2012’s Beauty and the Beast 3D dropped 50.5% taking $33.58m of $47.61m
2012’s Finding Nemo 3D dropped 42.2% taking $9.64m and $30.17m of $41.12m
2012’s Monsters Inc. 3D increased 35% (Christmas) taking $6.44m and $18.57m of $34.03m
Disney re-released The Nightmare Before Christmas several times in different territories in 2006, 2008 and 2009
Second-weekend re-releases
2013’s Jurassic Park dropped 52.4% taking $8.86m of $31.97m of $45.29m
1997’s The Little Mermaid dropped 42.1% taking $5.68m and $17.95m of $23.94m
All of those re-releases show that Avatar’s re-release was far from impressive as it should have taken more than three times as much.
In 1997 the films were released without any gimmick formats just standard 35mm with no surcharges for premium formats or seating, their inflation inflated openings would be today at least double their 1997 openings, but as Avatar’s re-release was double those normal prices closer to 4x times as much, so A New Hope would have opened with about $145m 10x more than Avatar.
Would be interesting to see the audience split what percentage had seen it previously in the cinema in 2009 and what percentage are experiencing it for the first time in the cinema having grown up watching it on TV. As probably as the recent Spider-Man No Way Home re-release the majority probably had seen it in the cinema many times before.
Dropped 45% in second weekend taking $12.3m from 51 territories (18% from IMAX) $39.5m worldwide 61 territories and $58.1m worldwide; France $5.8m; Germany $2.9m; UK $2.6m; Italy $2.6m; Korea $2.3.
Took $10.7m worldwide from IMAX; 3D took 81% in Asia, 76% in Europe and 70% in Latin America.
Avatar has now taken $286m from IMAX worldwide and has taken $2.9bn worldwide; after Avengers Endgame opened with $1.223bn in its opening weekend in 2019 was expected to overtake Avatar and become the first $3bn+ global film, but didn’t overtake until its 88th day on release which was at the end of its release.
The question is what will be the first $3bn global film as with the huge global openings of MCU and Star Wars films there should have been a $3bn+ global film by now.
UK Box Office Top 10
UK Box Office Preview
There are three wide releases this weekend but all three are targeting similar demographic, David O.Russell’s ensemble Amsterdam has received mixed reviews, unlike his other recent films Joy, American Hustle, Silver Lining Playbook and The Fighter all received critical acclaim, nominated for awards and premiered at film festivals. Those four films also opened similarly, (American Hustle opened with £3.46m but was inflated with £2.36m previews), so Amsterdam would be expected to open with about £1.5m.
Its been compared to Coen Brothers films including 2008’s No Country for Old Men opened £1,257,183 taking £6,316,478; 2003’s Intolerable Cruelty opened £1,555,684 (£2,831,065 inflation inflated) taking £6,465,278 (£11,765,641 inflation inflated); 2000’s O’ Brother, Where Art Thou opened £563,900 (£1,100,558 inflation inflated) taking £2,232,468 (£4,357,087 inflation inflated);
Amsterdam is being overshadowed by The Lost King getting strong media coverage is a British film and Stephen Frears films have performed well at the UK BO (most recently 2017’s Victoria & Abdul opened £1,846,970 taking £9,828,274),
The Lost King has received mixed reviews but the subject matter about the discovery of King Richard III remains in a Leicester car park and Steve Coogan will spark interest and similar to Mrs Harris Goes To Paris will likely perform well during the week as much as the weekend.
The Woman King has generated strong buzz since premiering at the Toronto Film Festival last month receiving positive reviews and opening with $19m, it had previews in the UK on September 20th charting #3.
All three films are likely to open with about £1m+, as will Lyle, Lyle Crocodile having previews Sat/Sun ahead of its release next weekend. This will see Minions: The Rise of Gru, DC League of Super-Pets and Tad The Lost Explorer And The Curse Of The Mummy all dropping much heavier than they have over recent weeks.
Holdovers Smile will drop 55%-60% taking £800k-£850k slightly less than Don’t Worry Darling dropping 45%-50% taking £900k+ and Ticket To Paradise. With Mrs Harris Goes To Paris dropping 25%-30% £550k-£650k.
Ending Park Circus 60th anniversary celebrations for James Bond No Time To Die is the final Bond film screening in cinemas on Saturday. Event Cinema has encore screenings of Billy Joel Live at Yankee Stadium on Sunday after being shown also on Wednesday 5th and NT Live has more encore screenings of Prima Facie after taking £5m at the BO, with tickets £20+ Event Cinema can’t be compared directly with regular cinema.
Opening next week
- Lyle, Lyle Crocodile – Sony Pictures
Has previews on October 8th/9th ahead of its opening on October 14th, Sat/Sun previews pre-COVID were the norm for most family films, weekend previews help build word of mouth and boost opening by £1m+.
Children have grown up with the Lyle, Lyle Crocodile books since the first one was released in 1965
The film features original songs written by composers of the songs for The Greatest Showman.
Sony has had success opening children’s films in Sept/Oct over recent years including Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs and Hotel Transylvania, while Minions: The Rise Of Gru, DC League Of Super-Pets and Tad The Lost Explorer And The Curse Of The Mummy is dropping down the chart.
Those three animated films have stayed in the top 10 much longer than they would have normally due to the lack of any other children’s films. Minions: The Rise Of Gru and DC League Of Super-Pets has been available to watch at home on VOD for the last month but people still have opted to see them in the cinema, this was similarly the case when cinemas reopened the first time when cinemagoers went to see Onward and Trolls World Tour in cinemas and Encanto still attracted audiences in cinemas more than a month after being released on Disney+.
Half-term is in three weeks and Lyle, Lyle Crocodile is the only family film being released, normally there are about three opening over the weekends ahead of half-term, but this year it hasn’t got any competition for 4 weeks before Disney’s Strange World and Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical opens at the end of November which Sony are also releasing with Netflix elsewhere in the world.
- Halloween End – Universal Pictures
Sequel to 2021’s Halloween Kills, the thirteenth film in the Halloween franchise, and the final film in the H40 trilogy starring Jamie Lee Curtis, James Jude Courtney, Andi Matichak, Will Patton, and Kyle Richards and directed by David Gordon Green
2018’s Halloween opened £2,656,097 taking £8,171,544
2021’s Halloween Kills opened £1,382,070 taking £4,594,478
Halloween End opens in a far less crowded marketplace than Halloween Kills last year opening third behind No Time To Die at £8,404,165 (third weekend and Venom: Let There Be Carnage at £6,167,833. While Halloween opened in October 2018 behind the third weekend of A Star is Born and Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween and Johnny English Strikes Again all three films play to a different demographic.
- Emily – Warner Bros
The biographical drama of the life of English writer Emily Brontë starring Emma Mackey. Fionn Whitehead, Oliver Jackson-Cohen, Alexandra Dowling, Amelia Gething, Adrian Dunbar and Gemma Jones and written and directed by Frances O’Connor.
Had its world premiere at the Toronto Film Festival receiving critical acclaim (100% Rotten Tomatoes)
Warner Bros acquired UK rights in April 2021
Selective recent writers Biographical films
2001’s Iris opened £378,749 #6 from 84 screens taking £3,647,197
2007’s Miss Potter opened £1,400,943 (£2,241,509 inflation inflated) taking £6,697,315 (£10,715,704 inflation inflated)
2013’s Saving Mr Banks opened £795,615 taking £4,377,134
2019’s Colette opened £788,432 #7 from 321 screens taking £1,931,287
1994’s Shadowlands opened £460,416 (£1,144,665 inflation inflated) taking £4,055,900 (£10,083,591 inflation inflated); taking 8.8x opening
1994’s Tom & Viv opened £61,070 #11 from 37 screens taking £142,674
1995’s Carrington opened £95,093 from 50 screens taking £475,178 (played on a max of 50 screens)
1997’s Wilde opened £147,284 from 15 screens taking £1.5m (played on a max of 50 screens)
1999’s Shakespeare in Love opened £1,819,385 (£3,491,836 inflation inflated) taking £20,814,996 (£39,948,971 inflation inflated); taking 11.4x opening
2000’s Angela’s Ashes opened £1,351,095 (£2,481,102 inflation inflated) taking £7,753,488 (£14,238,223 inflation inflated) taking 5.7x opening
2002’s The Hours opened £616,573 #8 (£1,122,052 inflation inflated) from 209 screens taking £4,311,523 (£7,846,195 inflation inflated) taking 7x opening
2003’s Sylvia opened £123,981 #15 taking £444,437
2004’s Finding Neverland opened £776,124 (£1,396,677 inflation inflated) taking £3,415,695; 4.4x opening
2007’s Becoming Jane opened £649,323 #4 (£1,038,917 inflation inflated) from 325 screens taking £3,352,273 (£5,363,637 inflation inflated)
2008’s The Edge of Love opened £180,837 #9 from 52 screens taking £1,191,025
2014’s Testament of Love opened £417,486 #11 from 233 screens taking £1,976,839
2017’s Goodbye Christopher Robin opened £781,110 #4 from 573 screens taking £2,793,497
2018’s The Guernsey Literary and Potato Peel Pie Society opened £825,777 #3 from 499 screens taking £5,731,735
1990’s Henry & June opened £50,123
