UK/US Box Office August 30th-1st September week 35 and film preview

 

 

  1. Once Upon A Time In Hollywood – £1,841,873 – £16,395,349

Down 12.6% in its third weekend; as all other films this weekend held strongly with many films increasing their box office with cooler temperatures over the last weekend of the summer holidays, which saw the box office not drop as low as it might have otherwise done.

Has overtaken Django Unchained (£15,736,884) to become Quentin Tarantino biggest film in the UK returning to #1 for its third weekend but would have topped the box office last weekend on Fri-Sun box office alone.

9th biggest 18 film in the UK; 31st biggest Sony Pictures UK film between The Pirates! In an Adventure With Scientists and The Smurfs and 43rd biggest inflation inflated biggest film between Django Unchained and Trainspotting 2.

Top 18 UK films sep 3

Once Upon A Time In Hollywood has been seen as the one original film success around a sea of sequels and reimaginations, but the audience for the film is similar to Inglourious Basterds and Django Unchained and Once Upon A Time In Hollywood has attracted similar demographic.

3rd weekends

2013’s Django Unchained dropped 30% £1,696,391 taking £10,308,028 65.5% of £15,736,884

2009’s Inglourious Basterds dropped 41% £764,454 (£1.1m+ inflation inflated) taking £8,604,715 78.7% of £10,930,315 (£16m+ inflation inflated)

The nine Quentin Tarantino films have taken almost £95m in the UK and almost £145 m inflation inflated.

The film expanded into 697 screens after opening in 663 screens three weeks ago; 6 years ago Django Unchained opened in a third less screens 445 similar number of screens Inglourious Basterds opened in 2009 (444). Really don’t understand the need to open films so wide as the occupancy rate of cinema is about 30% even Avengers: Endgame was only about 60%, films are opening far too wide having far too many screenings. If a film is playing in 704 cinemas its probably showing in over 1,000 screens.

Distributors used to be much more selective with the number of cinemas films would open in when it was 35mm prints but over the last decade 500+ has become the norm for a wide mainstream film and 700+ for a blockbuster, it would be interesting to see the box office of many of these screens and compare the difference between 500 cinema opening and 700 as I’m sure the extra 200 screens won’t add much. While the other issue is there are many more screenings that are barely full even on opening weekend, what makes the cinema experience unique is watching a film with a full cinema, saying that with mobile phones, noisy rude selfish cinemagoers, I do prefer going to emptier screenings as I have more chance to enjoy the film without interruptions.

Despite the success of Spider-Man: Far From Home (Sony Pictures 7th biggest film in the UK) and Once Upon A Time… In Hollywood  becoming Quentin Tarantino’s biggest film in the UK with their remaining films of the year (A Beautiful Day In The Neighbourhood, Black And Blue, Charlie’s Angels, Jumanji 2, Zombieland 2 and Little Women) will Sony beat last years total box office of £133m currently £65.1m?

While 2020 sees the return of Bad Boys, Peter Rabbit and Ghostbusters Sony Pictures UK will badly miss James Bond, the four films they released between 2006-2015 (Skyfall, Spectre, Casino Royale and Quantum of Solace) took over £300m at the box office; Skyfall took £102,816,893 and SPECTRE £95,183,468.

2020 has many long gap sequels and reboots which are hard to predict how audiences might respond to them (Top Gun: Maverick opening 34 years later, Ghostbusters 3 opening 31 years after Ghostbusters 2 ignoring the dreadful 2016 reboot, Bad Boys For Life opens 17 years after sequel and 25 years after first film.

Despite Skyfall and SPECTRE not being great films, James Bond films are surrounded by similar hype as MCU films and as similarly critical darlings, despite No Time to Die opening in April rather than October it’s the one film you can bet on taking close to £100m in 2020. With so few properties its surprising Sony Pictures let their most lucrative go to one of their biggest rivals, this was similar to Paramount Pictures swapping Indiana Jones rights in 2013 for Jerry Bruckheimer, who was in his final year at Disney while Paramount’s first films from him are Gemini Man, opening in October and Top Gun: Maverick opening next June.

  

  1. The Lion King – £1,226,964– £71,715,236

Dropped 12.2% in its seventh weekend; the first time since the same weekend last year Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again when a film climbed to #2 in its 7th weekend (taking £976,039) as The Lion King held #2 due to a lack of competition with Disney’s Christopher Robin #1 taking £1,173,235.

It was different for The Greatest Showman the previous film to do so taking 57% more (£1,925,895) but was a very different film to either The Lion King or Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again, as it was a people’s champion film that didn’t have existing fanbase. While the box office in middle of February 2018 was much more congested; Fifty Shades Freed opening #1 with £6,132,414 with half term films Coco #3 £1,213,572 and Early Man #4 £1,130,466 and Oscar winner Darkest Hour #5 £980,172.

It’s very different for The Lion King as family films opening after have all underwhelmed (biggest competition Dora And The Lost City Of Gold has taken £4,057,439 and The Angry Birds Movie 2 £4,634,544), which has allowed Disney to cannibalize the family film marketplace this summer with Aladdin, Toy Story 4 and The Lion King.

Top £50m UK BO sep 3

11th biggest film in the UK between Beauty and the Beast and Avengers: Infinity War and 31st biggest inflation inflated between Independence Day and The Dark Knight

6th biggest Disney film in the UK after Star Wars: The Force Awakens; Avengers: Endgame; Star Wars: The Last Jedi; Toy Story 3 and Beauty and the Beast.

Will overtake Beauty and the Beast this week becoming the biggest Disney reimagination.

TLK 7th weekend sep 3

Had the 16th biggest 7th weekend after (Avatar, Titanic, Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone, Arthur Christmas, The Greatest Showman, The Kings Speech, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, Slumdog Millionaire, Harry Potter and the Chamber Of Secrets, Mamma Mia!, Skyfall, Casino Royale, Toy Story 4, Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Paddington); 22nd film to take over £1m in its 7th weekend

After having the 18th biggest opening weekend in the UK and 11th biggest Fri-Sun and opening at the start of the summer holidays along with all the hype and love for the film should have expected The Lion King to hold much stronger over the summer holiday?

While The Lion King might be the 33rd film to take £1m+ in its 6th weekend it had the 31st biggest 6th weekend between Bridget Jones’s Baby and Avenger Infinity War close to Mary Poppins Returns (£998,726); Calendar Girls (£979,974);

While The Lion King is the 13th biggest film in the UK taking almost £70m would have expected it to of taken £100m+ as Avengers: Endgame.

The Lion King continues to hold similar to 2017’s Beauty and the Beast taking 0.4% more (£68,772,576 Vs £69,064,201) and 2% more than Toy Story 3 (£67,593,215 Vs £69,064,201)  while has taken 25% more than Toy Story 4 (£51,622,537 after 6 weeks) but first 4 weeks was term time; but over 30% less than Skyfall (£93,769,331) and Spectre (£90,634,770) which is the box office I expected The Lion King to have taken after 6 weeks.

As The Lion King opened at the start of the summer holidays was expecting it to be leggier than all the other Disney imaginations this year the original animated film is the most beloved animated film of all time ahead of release expected it to take £100m+ but will end taking about £80m. The original 1994 animated film was the biggest film of 1994 taking over £24m (over £80m today).

12 Disney reimaginations have taken over £381m since 2010 and £392m inflation inflated; Maleficent: Mistress of Evil is Disney’s fourth reimagination opens in October sequel to Maleficent opened May 2014 with £6,590,071 taking £19,292,000.

After releasing four reimaginations in 2019 Disney will only release one in 2020 and 2021 Mulan and Cruella with The Little Mermaid, Lilo & Stitch, the Hunchback of Notre Dame, Prince Charming, The Jungle Book 2 and Tink in development for theatrical release and Lady and the Tramp and The Sword in the Stone to be released on Disney+.

While Aladdin and The Lion King were always expected to be massive hits it is different with Mulan and Cruella, as the original Mulan was one of Disney’s lowest grossing animated films in the UK opening with £1,648,488 taking £9,454,609 and their 33rd biggest inflation inflated (£16,938,530) taking similar box office to Moana, Coco, The Emperor’s New Groove and The Good Dinosaur. While it’s the second reimagination of 101 Dalmatians in just over 20 years.

  1. Angel Has Fallen – £1,187,094 –  £4,536,490

Down 44.1% in its second weekend;

Has overtaken total box office of White House Down (£4,175,310) which was the competing White House terrorist attack film in 2013.

Had 686th biggest second weekend in the UK between The Green Hornet and Miami Vice (close to Kick-Ass, The Equalizer, Lethal Weapon 4 and RED) and the 873rd biggest inflation inflated between Sausage Party and Tomb Raider (close to The Island, Layer Cake, Salt and GI Joe: Retaliation).

Lionsgate’s 14th biggest second weekend between Eddie the Eagle and Jeepers Creepers and their 33rd biggest film in the UK between Saw VI and Power Rangers.

2nd weekends

2016’s London Has Fallen dropped 44.2% taking £1,800,526 and £6,444,871 59.5% of £10,831,576

2013’s Olympus Has Fallen dropped 59.3% taking £913,370 and £4,003,912 65.3% of £6,131,193

Lionsgate have had a far more successful year so far compared to last year up over 300% from 2018; Angel Has Fallen is Lionsgate’s third biggest film of 2019 after John Wick: Chapter Three and Fighting With My Family. Lionsgate’s remaining films of the year includes Rambo: Last Blood, Midway and Knives Out

  1. Dora And The Lost City Of Gold – £622,872 – £4,057,439

Up 27.6% in is third weekend  with August animated films failing to find an audience (The Angry Birds Movie 2, Playmobil: The Movie and Uglydolls and tween films Good Boys and Scary Stories To Tell In The Dark receiving 15 certificates meant there were few other choices after seeing The Lion King and Toy Story 4.

Paramount Pictures 5thn biggest film of 2019 will overtake Pet Sematary and Wonder Park shortly to become their third biggest film after Rocketman and Instant Family.

They have three films remaining to be released this year Ang Lee’s Will Smith sci-fi actioner Gemini Man is their key release opening in October the week after Joker which received critical acclaim after premiering at the Venice Film Festival over the weekend.

  1. Fast & Furious: Hobbs & Shaw – £610,479 – £19,078,869

Dropped 4% in its sixth weekend; with a lack of new releases, the last weekend of summer holidays and cooler weather had the smallest drop of the top 10.

Had the 2nd biggest 5th weekend of the Fast and Furious franchise after 2015’s Fast & Furious 7 (£1,113,888) close to 2011’s Fast & Furious 5 (£587,617) 2013’s Fast & Furious 6 (£592,553) and 2015’s Fast & Furious 8 (£503,026); 2001’s The Fast and the Furious (£271,083) 2009’s Fast & Furious (£193,666) 2003’s 2 Fast 2 Furious (£165,267) 2003’s The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift (£93,661).

hobbs 4th we sep 3

The 4th biggest Fast & Furious film (after Fast & Furious 7, The Fate of the Furious, Fast & Furious 6 and Fast & Furious 5) overtake Fast & Furious 5 (£18,368,657).

Universal Pictures 35th biggest film in the UK between Fifty Shades Freed and Johnny English Strikes Back and 40th biggest inflation inflated between Fast & Furious and Snow White and the Huntsman

The 9 Fast and Furious films have taken almost £164m at the box office since 2001 and over £185m inflation inflated.

Hobbs & Shaw will shortly become Universal Pictures biggest film in the UK in 2019 overtaking How to Train Your Dragon 3 and The Secret Life of Pets 2) and the 9th biggest film of 2019 (the 9th film taking over £20m this year  (in 2018 were also 9 films that took over £20m Jan- Aug  but in 2017 were 14).

Downtown Abbey targetting Bridget Jones/Mamma Mia! demographic and Cats in December after the success of previous musicals at Christmas (Mary Poppins Returns, The Greatest Showman and Les Misérables) will likely overtake Hobbs & Shaw. In

should end the year strongly. While in 2020 have the triple whammy of No Time to Die (Bond 25), Fast & Furious 9 and Minions: The Rise of Gru.

UK box office in detail

This weekend’s top 10 box office took £7,501,394 down 13.1% from last weekend £8,636,602

The weekend admissions 998,854 down 10.1% from last weekend 1,110,880; average ticket £7.56 up 5% from last year’s £7.22 and Applaudience estimate ticket price of £10.28

16 films opened at weekend taking (£1,135,694); The Informer 26.5% (£301,424); remaining 15 films shared 74.5% (£834,270); the first week in a very long time when the films opening outside the top 10 took more than the film opening in the top 10.

Top three took 56.7% (£4,255,931) of the top 10; Once Upon A Time In Hollywood 24.5% (£1,841,873); The Lion King 16.3% (£1,226,964); Angel Has Fallen 15.8% (£1,187,094);

The weekend down 4.8% from 2018: (£7,876,859); Searching (£765,050); The Happytime Murders (£694,044); Yardie (£438,088); Cold War (£228,780); Upgrade (£58,006); Action Point (£33,993); #1 Disney’s Christopher Robin £1,173,235 3rd week 646 screens (14.9% of top 10)

Up 21.1% from 2017: (£6,193,484); The Limehouse Golem (£371,412); God’s Own Country (£167,824); Patti Cake$ (£121,446); Inhumans (£80,176); #1 American Made £968,068 2nd week 556 screens 9% drop (15.6% of the top 10)

Down 16.9% from 2016: (£9,034,593); Bad Moms (£1,471,466); War Dogs (£1,005,133); The Purge: Election Year (£807,803); Mechanic: Resurrection (£508,715); Julieta (£356,191); Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping (£31,128); #1 Finding Dory £1,510,744 5th eek (3rd #1) 611 screens down 48% (16.7% of the top 10)

Down 12.6% from 2015; (£8,579,970); Straight Outta Compton (£2,498,231); Hitman: Agent 47 (£961,411); 45 Years (£331,196); We Are Your Friends (£260,715); #1 Straight Outta Compton £2,498,231  1st week 429 screens (29.1% of top 10)

Down 17.5% from 2014: (£9,093,638); Let’s Be Cops (£1,650,912); Sin City: A Dame to Kill For (expansion) (£1,077,370); If I Stay (£505,704); As Above, So Below (£398,787); Million Dollar Arm (£150,050); Obvious Child (£42,022); The Grand Seduction (£41,322); #1 Lucy £1,972,039 2nd week 504 screens (21.7% of top 10)

Down 24.1% from 2013: (£9,874,123); One Direction: This Is Us (£3,471,872); Pain & Gain (£1,016,136); The Way, Way Back (£532,487); You’re Next (£523,549); Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain (£36,882); #1 One Direction: This Is Us £3,471,872 1st week 476 screens (35.1% of top 10)

Down 30.6% from 2012 (£10,812,241); Total Recall (£2,493,230); The Watch (£2,235,933); The Possession (£979,192); A Few Best Men (£263,770); Thomas & Friends: Blue Mountain Mystery (£108,503); Berberian Sound Studio (£45,516); Cockneys vs. Zombies (£11,474); Rec 3 (£1,263); #1 Total Recall £2,493,230 1st week 464 screens (23.1% of top 10)

Down 28.8% from 2011 (£10,537,155); Fright Night (£680,543); Apollo 18 (£490,746); Kill List (£87,970); The Art of Getting By (£75,634); #1 The Inbetweeners Movie £3,679,555 3rd week 471 screens 35% drop  (34.9% of top 10)

Down 30.9% from 2010: (£10,857,796); Grown Ups (£2,006,945); Scott Pilgrim vs. The World (£1,604,545); Diary of a Wimpy Kid (£671,161); The Girl who Played with Fire (£404,896); #1 Grown Ups £2,006,945 1st week 401 screens (18.5% of top 10)

Down 18.3% from 2009; (£9,177,873); The Final Destination (£3,633,395); Funny People (£1,001,152); The Hurt Locker (£308,887); Broken Embraces (£296,048); Mesrine: Public Enemy No.1 (£57,978); The Final Destination £3,633,395 1st week 427 screens (39.6% of top 10)

Down 15.1% from 2008; (£8,832,337); Step Brothers (£1,681,492); The Strangers (£1,250,624); Babylon A.D. (£536,968); The Wackness (£80,581); #1 Step Brothers £1,681,492 1st week 362 screens (19.1% of top 10)

Down 2.97% from 2007: (£7,728,093); 1408 (£1,073,963); No Reservations (£512,657); Death Sentence (£260,733); Breach (£156,140); Hallam Foe (£132,972); Two Days in Paris (£110,284); Year of the Dog (£5,733); #1 The Bourne Ultimatum £2,232,971 3rd week 468 screens 22% drop (28.9% of top 10)

Up 26.9 from 2006; (£5,908,103); Little Man (£1,090,761); The Wicker Man (£736,316); The Sentinel (£627,838); Crank (£450,141); Adrift (£337,718); #1 You, Me and Depree £1,165,610 2nd week 412 screens 29% drop (19.7% of top 10)

Up 17.8% from 2005 (£6,367,870); The Dukes of Hazzard (£1,720,754); The Cave (£563,761); The Adventures of Shark Boy and Lavagirl in 3D (£399,436); Sisterhood of the Travelling Pants (£110,557); #1 The Dukes of Hazzard £1,720,754 1st week 447 screens (27.1% of top 10)

Down 13.6% from 2004 (£8,683,904); Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story (£2,200,271); The Chronicles of Riddick (£1,043,685); The Motorcycle Diaries (£333,368); Raising Helen (£209,201); #1 Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story £2,200,271 1st week 315 screens (25.3% of top 10)

Down 1.1% from 2003 (£7,578,928); Jeepers Creepers 2 (£1,069,346); The Lizzie McGuire Movie (expansion) (£405,205); Hollywood Homicide (£352,445); Intermission (£146,220); #1 The Pirates of the Caribbean 4th week (2nd #1) £2,037,014 444 screens 3% drop (26.9% of top 10)

Up 20.3% from 2002 (£6,235,380); Insomnia (£1,159,754); The Sweetest Thing (£592,722); Windtalkers (£388,212); #1 Insomnia £1,159,754 1st week 264 screens (18.6% of top 10)

Up 17.6% from 2001 (£6,378,036); A Knight’s Tale (£1,678,264); Angel Eyes (£162,648); What’s Cooking (£45,445); #1 A Knight’s Tale £1,678,264 1st week 377 screens (26.3% of top 10);

Next weekend in 2018: (£9,386,760); The Nun (£4,098,198); American Animals (£347,486); The Miseducation of Cameron Post (£142,996); Puzzle (£23,565); Final Score (£9,945); #1 The Nun £4,098,198 1st week 548 screens (43.6% of top 10)

Also opened

All new releases opened poorly as the weekend after the bank holiday has become the dumping weekend as distributors clear their shelves before autumn.

  • The Informer – Warner Bros

£301,424 from 450 screens (the only new release that managed to get into the top 10)

  • Mrs Lowry and Son – Vertigo Releasing

£250,232 (including £75,841 previews) from 194 screens

Despite all the challenges of independent film distribution in the UK Vertigo Films have been able to hold their own now for over 15 years maybe its because unlike other distributors they haven’t tried to run before they can walk. So many independent distributors put all their eggs in one basket looking for that one big break out film, but then when it fails to be the hit expected the distributor suffers. Vertigo Films have had successes with films like Bronson, StreetDance 3D, and Monsters.

  • A Million Little Pieces – eOne

£25,746 from 59 screens

Aaron Taylor-Johnson and Sam Taylor-Johnson previously worked together on 2009’s Nowhere Boy opened with £148,157 taking £1,148,712.

  • The Souvenir – Curzon

£108,710 (including £10,423 previews) from 43 screens

Other Box Office News

August had the best admissions since August 2011 (21, 413,517) due to Toy Story 4, Spider-Man: Far From Home and The Lion King taking over 70% of the box office, but despite this box office is still down 4% on 2018.

2018 – Top 10 films September – December took £285m (Bohemian Rhapsody £54.95m; Mary Poppins Returns £44.51m; Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them 2 £33.99m; A Star Is Born £30.00m; The Grinch £27.80m; Aquaman £22.30m; Venom £20.12m; Ralph Breaks the Internet £18.45m; Johnny English 3 £17.68m; Bumblebee £12.76m;

top 30 UK sep 3

2019-Top 10 films September- December take £350m+ (25%+ (Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker £90m; Frozen 2 £50m; Jumanji 2 £40m; Cats £35m; It Chapter 2 £30m; Downtown Abbey £30m; Maleficent: Mistress of Evil £25m; Joker £20m; Gemini Man £15m; Terminator: Dark Fate £15m.

Which should see 2019 top 2018 but at the start of the year did think that 2019 should of seen much more growth than it has done with massive films Avengers: Endgame, Aladdin, Toy Story 4 and The Lion King, but the problem is while these films might be taking strong box office they have squeezed the other 800+ films that are being released. Until industry deals with the fact that you can’t price these films the same price as smaller films the divide will continue to grow.

The difference between this year and next is when Disney announced their slate for 2019 rival studios seemed to of waved their white flags, but they have much stronger slates in 2020 while Disney don’t have major MCU, Pixar sequels or Star Wars films so won’t have it all their own way. The problem for other studios is will audiences be interested in long gap sequels Top Gun 2, Ghostbusters 3 and Bad Boys 3 as the marketplace is very different now to when the previous instalments opened.

 

UK Box Office Top 10

UK BO Sep 3

US Box office

US BO Sep 3

 

  • Angel has Fallen – Lionsgate

Dropped 44.8% in its second weekend taking $11.79m and $40.91m

Ahead of release Angel has Fallen was tracking to open in the teens but as with Good Boys last weekend and other Gerald Butler films opened bigger than expected but would have expected both to open as they did so why do analysts underestimate both films openings?

Second weekends

2016’s London Has Fallen dropped 49.9% taking $10.83m and $39.01m total $62.52m and $205.75m worldwide

2013’s Olympus Has Fallen dropped 53.4% taking $14.14m and $54.89m total $98.92m and $170.27m worldwide

Opened with $8.6m internationally

  • Ready or Not – Fox Searchlight

Dropped 26.2% in its second weekend taking $5.91m and $20.38m  

Had the widest release for a Fox Searchlight film in the US previous widest 2002’s The Banger Sisters 2,739 screens and 2006’s The Hills Have Eyes 2,621

Art-house horror have had mixed success at the box office with films including 2013’s Stoker opened with $160,547 from limited release taking $1.71m; 2015’s Crimson Peak opened with $13.14m taking $31.1m; 2016’s The Witch opened with $8.8m taking $25.13m; 2018’s Suspiria opened on limited release $184,037 taking $2.48m

  • Good Boys – Universal Pictures

Dropped 18.3% in its third weekend taking $9.5m and $56.51m

Holding similar to last year’s Blockers which took $6.83m and $48.1m and $60.31m total

Third weekends

1999’s American Pie took $13.55m down 27.5% and $45.52m taking $121.46m

2005’s The 40-Year-Old Virgin took $16.27m down 24% and $48.56m taking $109.44m

Universal Pictures have taken over $1bn at the box office this year in the US it is the 9th year running have taken over $1bn in the US are currently #2 studio in the US but with Abominable, Last Christmas, Queen & Slim, Black Christmas, Cats and 1917 are likely to be no match for Warner Bros It Chapter 2 and Joker and Warner Bros will likely end the year in second place where they have been since 2016 behind Disney.

With Trolls World Tour, Fast & Furious 9, Minions: The Rise of Gru and Halloween Kills they have a good chance to hold their own against Disney in 2020.

Took $2.7m from 26 territories and $11.7m total and $70.3m worldwide;

  • Overcomer – Sony /Affirm

Dropped 30.5% in its second weekend taking $5.66m and $17.21m

Opened in 1,723 screens almost half of the number of screens the rest of the top 10 films were playing in which saw it have the second-best screen average of the top 10 after Angel Has Fallen.

20 years ago only a small amount of films opened in over 3,000 screens but all of the top 20 biggest films opened in over 3,000 screens with many opening on over 4,000 screens. Most films now are opening far too wide and probably could be as successful opening in far less screens.

Alex and Stephen Kendrick’s previous faith-based films 2015’s War Room opened with $11.35m taking $67.79m; 2011’s Courageous opened with $9.11m taking $34.52m; 2008’s Fireproof opened with $6.83m taking $33.45m.

  • Fast & Furious: Hobbs & Shaw – Universal Pictures

Dropped 19.9% in its fifth weekend taking $6.46m and $157.27m

Fifth biggest Fast and Furious film in the US behind the four films Dwayne Johnson starred in (Furious 7, Fast & Furious 6, The Fate of the Furious and    Fast Five); Will Fast & Furious 9 be as successful without Dwayne Johnson next year?

Dwayne Johnson’s films have taken $3.55bn in the US and $10.386bn worldwide; Jumanji: The Next Level opens in December followed by Jungle Cruise next July.

Universal Pictures have had 6 #1 this year the same amount as Disney for a total of 10 weekends and  Us, Yesterday, and Good Boys are among the highest grossing original movies of 2019.  ;;

The nine Fast and Furious films have taken $1.664bn in the US and $5.72bn worldwide; Fast & Furious 9 is set for release May 22nd, 2020 and Fast & Furious 10 2nd April 2021.

Took $39.1m from 69 territories internationally and $584.2m worldwide; #121 biggest film worldwide between The Hunger Games and Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation

Hobbs & Shaw has overtaken Fast Five to become the fourth biggest Fast and Furious film globally  but is expected to come short of Fast & Furious 6 ($788.7m); but this won’t stop Universal Pictures from dating Hobbs & Shaw 2 for summer 2022.

  • The Lion King – Disney

Dropped 14.2% in its seventh weekend taking $6.92m and $521.15m total

69th biggest seventh weekend between The Hunger Games: Catching Fire and Chicago; #39 Aladdin ($7.51m) and the original 1994 animated film #59 ($7.073m); #58 The Jungle Book ($7.08m); #50 Incredibles 2 ($7.25m); #39 Aladdin ($10.11m); #64 Beauty and the Beast (2017) ($6.82m); #63 Finding Dory ($11.28m).

13th biggest film in the US between Rogue One: A Star Wars Story and 2017’s Beauty and the Beast

The Lion King was the 14th film to take over $500m at the US box office should be an amazing achievement for a film but as the original film took $313m in 1994 would be $700m+ inflation inflated its not as big as it looks.

While Disney received much praise for the performance of their summer films all of them came short to expectations. At the start of the year many believed The Lion King would be the biggest film of the year $800m+ and possibly of all time $3bn worldwide, this is similar to Avengers: Endgame the biggest film worldwide should surely also be the biggest film ever in the US and UK too?

The original The Lion King animated film is the most beloved animated film of all time and Disney pulled out all the stops for the reimagination; the teaser trailer became the most watched trailer in 24 hours overtaking It (197m views) in November 2018 (224.6m views) was beaten by Avengers: Endgame two weeks later and its official trailer was seen 174m times in April.

The Lion King and Toy Story 4 should of surely take similar to last year’s Incredibles 2 which took $572.77m after 7 weeks 94.1% of $608.58m; after 7 weeks on release The Lion King has taken about 95% of its total box office of $550m which would see it top both The Dark Knight and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story but come $60m+ short of Incredibles 2 just missing out of becoming one of the top 10 biggest films in the US.

Rather than exhibitors worrying about Netflix films shortened theatrical window should be more concerned with films like The Lion King (opening with $191.7m) and Avengers: Endgame (opening with $357.1m) as these films open big but then drop big  Avengers Endgame took 73%+ of total BO within 10 days while The Lion King took 66% of its total box office within 10 days.

20 years ago when a film took $100m at the box office was the sign of a films success but have been 749 films taking over $100m. (In 1970 Airport became one of the first films to take over $100m at the US box office will be over $500m today). Have been 211 films taking $200m+; 85 films have taken over $300m and 37 over $400m should now be the sign of a film’s success at the box office.

Disney have 119 films taking over $100m (1987’s Good Morning, Vietnam its 1st); 60 films taking over $200m (1998’s Armageddon its 1st) and 19 films taking over $400m (2006’s Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest its 1st).

The originally film took $422.78m (24th biggest film in the US between Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom and $803.2m Inflation inflated (20th biggest film in the US between Star Wars: Episode I: The Phantom Menace and The Sting).

The Lion King took over $1m at the US box office for 35 weeks (till February 1995) taking $31285m; re-released in IMAX in 2002 taking $15.68m and in 2011 in 3D taking $94.24m with $422.78m total;

Globally took $968.5m 42nd biggest film worldwide between Despicable Me 2 and 2016’s The Jungle Book; would be about $2.5bn worldwide inflation inflated.

Decade or more ago $1bn worldwide was cool but with China inflating global BO now 42 members since 1993 as with $100m used to being sign of success both need to be doubled as should really be $1bn US and $3bn+ global club that Avengers Endgame and The Lion King should be members?

14 Disney reimaginations have taken $3.27bn in the US and $8.96bn worldwide

Took $20.6m from 53 territories and $1.041bnm total and $1.562bn worldwide #7 biggest between Jurassic World and Marvel’s The Avengers; China $120.4m; UK $88.1m; France $74m; Brazil $67.5m; Mexico $51.7m; Japan $51.4m; Germany $50m; Russia $45.2m; Australia $42.7m; Spain $39.5m; Korea $35m; Netherlands $30.2m; Italy $29.6m; India $26.3m.

  • Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Sony Pictures

Dropped 17.7% in its sixth weekend taking $4.11m and $129.74m

Sixth weekends

2009’s Inglourious Basterds took $2.68m and $114.42m 94.9% of $120.54m

2012’s Django Unchained $3m and $150.94m 92.7% of $162.8m

The nine Quentin Tarantino films have taken $780m at the US box office and $1.75bn worldwide

Took $21.6m from 60 territories $152.7m total internationally and $284m worldwide; #516 biggest film worldwide between John Carter and Turbo; UK $20.1m; Russia $17m; France $15.6m; Germany $12.7m; Australia $10.9m; Spain $9.9m; Mexico $4.6m; Netherlands $4.2m; Brazil $4.2m; Poland $4.0m.

Has become Quentin Tarantino’s third biggest film worldwide after Django Unchained #270 $425.4m; Inglourious Basterds #430 $321.5m overtaking 1994’s Pulp Fiction #728 $213.9m.

  • Toy Story 4 – Disney

Up 93.6% in its eleventh weekend taking $2.38m and $429.72m

Added 1,895 screens for encore screenings over Labor Day weekend

2010’s Toy Story 3 took $1.01m in its 11th weekend and $400.82m 96.6% of $415.1m total; 12th weekend increased 92.4% adding 920 screens over Labor Day weekend taking $1.94m and $408.1m.

Many films increased their box office over Labor Day weekend with many also like Toy Story 4 having encore screenings but performed stronger Midsommar up 1,217.4% despite only adding 632 screens a third of the screens Toy Story added, while Aladdin increased by over 100% adding only 45 screens.

Took $4.9m from 24 territories $613.8Mm total and $1,043.5bn worldwide; #34 biggest film worldwide between Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides and Aladdin (2019)

Toy Story 4 is still $22m away from overtaking Toy Story 3 global box office from 2010, with the growth of the international market since along with ticket prices surely Toy Story 4 should have taken much more than Toy Story 3? This is similarly the case with The Lion King while it might be seventh biggest surely it should too have taken much more.

While Avengers: Endgame only managed to take $7m more than Avatar despite opening 10 years later with again growth of international and China and ticket prices along with taking almost 50% of its global total in its opening 3 days. While most of the industry has celebrated the success of Disney films this summer I believe they all fell slightly short to the expectations most people had at the start of the year.

Took $7.2m from 24 territories and $429.7m total and $1.043bn worldwide; #34 biggest film worldwide between Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides and Aladdin (2019); Japan $90.1m; UK $79.9m; Mexico $71.9m; Brazil $32.5m; France $29.2m; China $29.1m; Argentina $28.9m; Australia $28.9m; Korea $24.7m; Spain $24m.

  • Spider-Man: Far From Home – Sony Pictures

Up 155.8% in its ninth weekend taking $4.3m and $384.75m

2017’s Spider-Man: Homecoming increased 30.6% over Labor Day weekend taking $3.68m and $324.08m 96.9% of $334.2m total.

Returning into 2,154 screens including IMAX cinemas for one week of encore screenings with 4 minutes of additional footage as Sony Pictures try to repeat what Disney did the week before Spider-Man: Far From Home with Avengers: Endgame.

While the re-release of Avengers: Endgame was done to make it the biggest film worldwide overtaking Avatar Spider-Man: Far From Home re-release will likely add another $10m which is unlikely to break any records apart from overtaking Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 I the US and Captain Marvel and possibly Aquaman and Captain America: Civil War (the film that launch Spider-Man and the story arc that ended with Spider-Man: Far From Home.

Marvel Cinematic Universe took to social media over the weekend showing pictures of near empty cinemas saying this is what will happen to a Sony Spider-Man film, still angered with the news Sony weren’t continuing their partnership with Marvel that started for them with Spider-Man: Homecoming and Marvel with Captain America: Civil War.

Sony were making Spider-Man films for many tears before Marvel were making MCU and Disney owned Marvel and without Sony making Spider-Man and 20th Century Fox making X-Men films in the early 00s when comic-book films weren’t cool there wouldn’t of been an MCU, so Sony deserve more respect than they have received. As soon as the partnership started it was doomed to split up as both Sony and Disney would want more control and was one of the many reasons why Disney were so eager to acquired 20th Century Fox as it gave them the rights to X-Mem along with the first Star Wars film.

Has taken $736.2m international and $1.12bn worldwide 25th biggest between Transformers: Dark of the Moon and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

UK Box Office Predictions

Top 18 UK films sep 10 preds

After a couple of quiet weekends at the box office September’s two major releases can’t be much different It Chapter 2 opening this weekend and Downtown Abbey opening next weekend, both of which will likely be the biggest films at the box office until Frozen 2 in late November. There are over 60 opening in October alone and over 170 released between now and the end of November, but it’s hard to see past either It Chapter 2 or Downtown Abbey until Frozen 2.

Two years ago It surprised many opening so strongly with £10,002,443 had the fifth biggest Fri-Sun opening of the UK of 2017, taking over 70% of the top 10 box office, and the six biggest opening of the year behind Beauty and the Beast, The Fate of the Furious, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2, Despicable Me 3; It Chapter 1 is the 82nd biggest opening in the UK and is the 110th biggest film in the UK taking £32.34m; it Chapter 1 is Warner Bros 25th biggest film in the UK.

After a disappointing year for Warner Bros its 8 releases in 2019 have taken £65m almost 80% less than Disney’s £305m+ The Lego Movie 2 their current biggest film taking £19m should end the year strongly with Joker (received critical acclaim after at the Venice Film Festival over the weekend), The Goldfinch, Doctor Sleep and Motherless Brooklyn (received positive reviews at Telluride Film Festival) opening after It Chapter 2.

It opened with 8.1% of its US opening ($123,403,419) it Chapter 2 is tracking to open slightly more than first film taking $130m+ would see the sequel open with £10.5m+, but will likely be much more front-loaded than the first film.

It Chapter Two is Fandango’s most anticipated Fall film in the US, others are Joker, Frozen II, Terminator: Dark Fate, Zombieland: Double Tap, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood, Downton Abbey, Charlie’s Angels and Ad Astra.

Its expected to open slightly less than the $123.4m the first film opened with two years ago; advance sales in the US are best ever for a horror film more than It, Us, Halloween and The Nun.

Opening in UK Next Week

  • Downtown Abbey – Universal Pictures

Historical period drama starring Hugh Bonneville, Jim Carter, Michelle Dockery, Elizabeth McGovern, Maggie Smith and Penelope Wilton written by Julian Fellowes and directed by Michael Engler.

Since the final episode was broadcast on ITV on Christmas Day 2015 had been rumours of a spinoff film, in July 2018 it was announced a film would be made and Universal Pictures would release the film worldwide.

In September 2018 it was dated for release in the UK September 13th and a week later in the US, Danny Boyle’s Yesterday was previously dated to open which was brought forward to June.

Early September has been a strong date to open British based films including

2018 – King of Thieves opened £1,535,876 taking £6,043,321

2017 – Victoria and Abdul opened £1,846,970 taking £9,434,937

2016 – Bridget Jones’s Baby opened £8,111,077 taking £48,150,737

2015 – Legend opened £5,189,074 taking £18,202,111

2014 – Pride opened £718,778 taking £3,803,562

2013- Rush opened £2,099,308 taking £9,793,677

2011- Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy opened £2,814,860 taking £14,133,500

2003 Calendar Girls opened £1,762,505 taking £20,174,133

As often the film would receive their world premiere week before at Venice Film Festival and then have a London premiere a few days later. This is similarly the case in mid to late October after films have received their UK premiere at the London Film Festival, but it does mean October has become a very crowded month for films with over 60 set for release next month.

Downtown Abbey could be a spinoff to Julian Fellowes 2002 film Gosford Park opened with £837,169 taking £11,828,088

The final episode of Downtown Abbey was broadcast on ITV1 on Christmas Day 2015 with an audience of 6.9m with another 4m watching on catchup with a total of 10.9m. Was the most watched TV programme on Christmas Day, the first time ITV had managed to do so  in 15 years.

7.6m watched the first episode of the first series in 2010 on ITV, 9m watched the first episodes of season two and season three, 9.2m watched first episode of series 4 and 8.4m watch first episode of series 5; if half of those people who watched the TV series saw Downtown Abbey in the cinema it would have similar box office of last year’s Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! £65,515,994?

Three weeks before release all cinema chains in the UK had advance bookings for Downtown Abbey except for Vue Cinemas. Earlier this year Vue Cinemas were in dispute with Universal Pictures they which saw Mary Queen of Scots not playing in their cinemas until several weeks after opening and having fewer screenings of How to Train Your Dragon 3. Vue cinemas started advance bookings for Downtown Abbey two weeks after all other cinema chains.

Wowcher had a 2for1 offer at Vue Cinemas but the only films that weren’t included were Hobbs & Shaw, Downtown Abbey and The Adams Family Movie which could be connected to this dispute? But as seen with previous disputes with Warner Bros for A Star Is Born last October Vue Cinemas not showing either films had little impact on their opening weekends.

Films based on British TV shows have had mixed success at the box office the hits mostly based comedy series The Inbetweeners Movie, Absolutely Fabulous: The Movie, Ali G Indahouse, Kevin & Perry Go Large, Alan Partridge: Alpha Papa, Bean, Mrs. Brown’s Boys D’Movie, In the Loop. But then there have been misses including The Bad Education Movie, Dads Army, Guest House Paradiso, Keith Lemon: The Film.

Films based on drama series including The Avengers, Edge of Darkness, The Saint, Spooks, State of Play, The Sweeney, The Singing Detective and Widows have had more mixed success.

Downtown Abbey is still very popular ITV4 have been showing all episodes every evening for the last few weeks and Universal will be hoping to attract the Bridget Jones/Mamma Mia! 35+ female demographic.

Universal Pictures acquired British production company Carnival Films who made Downtown Abbey the TV series and also produced the film. While they have had strong success making TV series over the last 41 years Downtown Abbey is their third feature film, their other two 1997’s Firelight and 1991’s Under Suspicion were far from successful.

Has its world premiere on September 9th; ITV’s This Morning have a Downtown Abbey special the day before the film opens on September 12th.

Without advance booking data it’s hard to predict Downtown Abbey’s box office as the film will receives strong media coverage over the next 10 days but with repeats still on ITV4 why would you see the film?

Comparisons include

3008’s Sex and the City opening £8,767,265 taking £26,232,557

2001’s Bridget Jones’s Diary opening £5,720,292 taking £41,692,598

2017’s Murder on the Orient Express opening £4,985,600 taking £23,900,453

2014’s Mrs. Brown’s Boys d’Movie opening £4,301,306 taking £14,290,727

2016’s Absolutely Fabulous: The Movie opening £4,042,959 taking £15,297,486

2015’s The Second-Best Exotic Marigold Hotel opening £3,771,852 taking £15,575,797

  • Hustlers- STX International

Comedy-drama starring Constance Wu, Jennifer Lopez, Julia Stiles, Keke Palmer, Lili Reinhart, Lizzo, and Cardi B, written and directed by Lorene Scafaria, based on New York magazine’s 2015 article “The Hustlers at Scores” by Jessica Pressler.

Had its world premiere at the Toronto International Film Festival                                 

The film was originally developed at Annapurna Pictures but was dropped due to budget concerns and STX acquired rights in October 2018.

While Hustlers is expected to open with $25m+ in the US its likely to open much lower in the UK with Downtown Abbey  opening the same weekend targetting the female audience too.

Unlike the US where box office data is easily available online freely its hard to get data for films like Striptease and Showgirls, in the 90s there were many erotic thrillers released (including Final Analysis, Sliver, Jade, Disclosure, Consenting Adults, Body of Evidence, The Last Seduction and Bound) majority were poorly received both critically and at the box office with the exception of Basic Instinct; while Disney celebrate the 25th anniversary of The Lion King this years its unlikely they celebrated the 25th anniversary of Color of Night last month.

  • Ad Astra – 20th Century Fox (Wednesday 18th)

Sci-fi adventure Starring Brad Pitt, Tommy Lee Jones, Ruth Negga, Liv Tyler, and Donald Sutherland and produced, co-written, and directed by James Gray.

James Gray announced plans to write and direct Ad Astra at the Cannes Film Festival in 2016; while promoting The Lost City of Z he compared  the story of Ad Astra to Joseph Conrad’s Heart of Darkness and said he wanted it to be “the most realistic depiction of space travel that’s been put in a movie and to basically say, ‘Space is awfully hostile to us.'”

James Gray said recently “I won’t lie to you, it’s strange that you make this adult-oriented science fiction epic and it’s the Disney corporation that’s releasing it,” “But having said that, they’ve been fantastic. They love the film, they’ve been really embracing of it.

Had its world premiere at the Venice Film Festival on August 29, 2019 receiving critical acclaim but as with Blade Runner 2049 two years could be do more damage than good as it will be a film for film fans but not mainstream audiences.

Was original set for January 2019 release before moving to May and was expected to premiere at the Cannes Film Festival but was pushed back to September so James Gray could have more time to complete the film. (he said during an interview at the Venice Film Festival he only completed the film a few days ago).

IMAX trailer

Do have the fear that Ad Astra will look speculator have critics gushing as they did with Blade Runner 2049, but audiences will respond much less positively as they did with Blade Runner 2049  and Solaris 2003 remake directed by Steven Soderbergh starring George Clooney instead of 20th Century Fox’s other hugely successful recent sci-fi film The Martian (directed by Ridley Scott and starring Matt Damon) strange coincidence that all three actors starred in Ocean’s 11 trilogy directed by Steven Soderbergh.

Solaris opened February 2003 with £313,804 from 153 screens taking £663,508

Grown up autumn released sci-fi films have been popular at the box over recent years

Gravity opened November 2013 with £6,238,375 (£619,086 previews) taking £32,692,161

Interstellar opened November 2014 with £5,378,220 taking £20,066,636

The Martian opened October 2015 with £6,531,734 (£1,630,490 previews) taking £23,578,878

Arrival opened November 2016 with £2,924,059 taking £8,994,774

Blade Runner 2049 opened October 2017 with £6,071,625 (£858,095 previews) taking £18,820,009

First Man opened October 2018 with £2,415,330 taking £7,360,906

Has also similarities to 1997’s Contact which took £5,433,609

While 20th Century Fox have had success over recent years targetting older demographics including

20018’s Bohemian Rhapsody opened £9,530,463 taking £54,951,548

2018’s The Favourite opened £3,973,975 taking £16,965,411

2018’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri opened £2,361,782 taking £15,238,741

2017’s Murder on the Orient Express opened £4,985,600 taking £23,900,453

2016’s The Revenant opened £5,235,851 taking £21,759,689

2014’s Gone Girl opened £4,109,628 taking £22,125,201

2012’s Life of Pi opened £3,610,604 taking £28,726,668

2012’s Prometheus opened £6,236,580 taking £24,628,830

2012’s The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel opened £2,222,051 taking £20,308,480

2011’s Black Swan opened £2,762,429 taking £15,708,154

2006’s The Devil Wears Prada opened £3,267,580 taking £13,681,185

2001’s Moulin Rouge opened £2,403,378 taking £17,934,410

Many believe 20th Century Fox future of making original films is on the success of Ad Astra and Le Man’s 66 (aka Ford v Ferrari) as Disney don’t take as many risks on original films as 20th Century Fox have done over the years as wouldn’t have made films like The Greatest Showman or Bohemian Rhapsody). There was a hope that Disney would use 20th Century Fox as they did with Touchstone Pictures making adult focussed films but there is a fear that it will be just used to make reimaginations for the library for Disney+.

The success of Ada Astra and Le Man’s 66 could be seen as referendums on the future of 20th Century Fox making original films.  

 

Opening in US Next Week

  • The Goldfinch – Warner Bros

Drama starring Ansel Elgort, Oakes Fegley, Aneurin Barnard, Finn Wolfhard, Sarah Paulson, Luke Wilson, Jeffrey Wright, and Nicole Kidman and directed by John Crowley based on the 2013 Pulitzer Prize winning novel by Donna Tartt.

Three years ago John Crowley directed the Oscar nominated Brooklyn opened on limited release with $187,281 and took $38.32m in the US and $62.1m worldwide.

Surprising Warner Bros aren’t platforming The Goldfinch opting instead to open wide a few days after receiving its world premiere at the Toronto Film Festival. It is seen as the first Fall award contenders.

The film was shot by Oscar-winning cinematographer Roger Deakins

  • Hustlers- STX

Two weeks ago Hustlers was surprisingly tracking to open with $24m+ opening this would be Jennifer Lopez’s biggest ever opening more than 2005’s Monster in Law $23.1m (taking $82.91m) and 2002’s Maid in Manhattan $18.71m (taking $94.1m). Her last film 2018’s Second Sight opened with $6.48m taking $39.28m (also from STX)

 But Hustlers isn’t just a Jennifer Lopez film as Constance Wu, Lili Reinhart, Jenniger Lopez and Cardi B have almost 275m followers on social media across Twitter, Instagram and Facebook. The film is tracking ahead of Ocean’s 8, A Star Is Born, Girls Trip, Crazy Rich Asians, Bad Moms and Magic Mike XXL.

Ocean’s Eight opened last year with $41.6m taking $140.21m but then The Kitchen opened with $5.52m taking $11.68m last month pulled from cinemas after only three weeks.  

90s stripper movies 1995’s Showgirls opened with $8.11m taking $20.35m; 1996’s Striptease opened with $12.32m taking $33.1m and $113.3m worldwide

Hustlers receives its world premiere at the Toronto Film Festival which must mean that its much more than just another stripper film more about women empowerment especially as it tested strongly to women.

Advance sales for Hustlers are ahead of STX’s Bad Moms Christmas which opened with $16.7m.

 

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