UK/US Box Office December 14th-16th week 50 and UK BO Predictions
Top 5 Breakdown
1. Aquaman – £5,230,285 – NE
Took £1.4m from previews on Wednesday £842k and Thursday £552k
Had the 14th biggest opening of 2018 and Warner Bros second biggest of the year after Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald.
Was Warner Bros 39th biggest opening in the UK between Interstellar and Scooby-Doo and 58th biggest inflation inflated opening between The Final Destination and Ready Player One which does put its opening into perspective.
Had the 228th biggest opening in the UK between Coco and Legend (opening close to Independence Day: Resurgence, Ant-Man and The Wasp, Ready Player One) and the 345th biggest inflation inflated opening between Murder on the Orient Express and Coco (close to Armageddon, Kick-Ass and Cloverfield)
Had the lowest opening od DC Extended Universe film in the UK; removing previews from its opening Aquaman had the fifth worst opening for Warner Bros comic-book film ahead of Batman Begins, Batman Returns, Green Lantern and Batman.
As most of those films are over 13 years old have to compare them with inflation inflated totals which would see Aquaman have the second lowest after Green Lantern. But its unfair to compare Aquaman with Green Lantern as while Aquaman was always the joke character of the Justice League in the films.
The sixth film in the DC Extended Universe and the third appearance of Aquaman after 2016’s Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (opened with £14,621,007) and 2017’s Justice League (opened with £7,264,784 including £2,990,474 from previews).
Most of the other DC Extended Universe films had the weekend to itself but Aquaman was shared with Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse, Mortal Engines and Bumblebee previews all targeting similar demographics.
Predictably the three openers this weekend with the addition of Bumblebee cannibalized each other as all were targeting the similar audiences as they choose to open against each other instead of against Mary Poppins Returns next weekend.
Justice League opened November 17th, 2017 had the weekend to itself opening week after Paddington 2
Wonder Woman opened 2nd June 2017 with £6,179,616 (including £1,219,884 previews); Baywatch opened against opening with £4,631,244 (including £2,719,710 previews)
Suicide Squad opened 5th August 2016 with £11,252,225 had weekend to itself opening week after Jason Bourne
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice opened with £14,621,007 opened against Zootropolis £5,306,726 (including £1,733,638 previews) two films targeting different demographics
Man Of Steel opened June 14th, 2013 with £11,198,786 had weekend to itself
2. Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse – £2,279,995 – NE
Took £1.05m from 6 days of previews (including £750,000 from previews last weekend)
Had the 585th biggest opening in the UK between Bee Movie and Four Christmases (close to Smallfoot, Aladdin and SpongeBob Movie: Sponge out of Water) and 862nd biggest inflation inflated opening between Molly’s Game and Ride Along 2 (close to Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs, Cowboys & Aliens and Hotel Transylvania).
Had the 66th biggest comic-book film opening between Green Lantern and Batman (close to 2015’s Fantastic Four, Men in Black 3 and Kick-Ass 2) and the 96th biggest animated opening between Bee Movie and SpongeBob Movie: Sponge out of Water and 121st biggest inflation inflated between Shaun The Sheep Movie and Angry Birds.
Showing the audience was divide between comic-book Aquaman and animated from The Grinch and Ralph Breaks The Internet opening against those three films its hard to see what audience it is aiming at animation or comic-book fans as it had an average opening for both genres.
As comparison would be Big Hero 6; Disney Animation film based on Marvel comics but without Marvel being part of its production opened January 2015 with £4,293,286 (including £479,652 previews) taking £20,123,298.
Bumblebee will add more competition against Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse now that it has been given a PG certificate.
After having 9 day opening weekend despite having positive reviews and strong word of mouth it will still likely drop over 50% in its second weekend.
3. The Grinch – £1,747,935 – £21,686,462
Has become the 15th biggest film of 2018 (16th to take over £20m) overtaking Hotel Transylvania 3 to be the second biggest animated film this year behind Incredibles 2, The Grinch has become Universal Pictures fourth biggest film of 2018 overtaking Fifty Shades Freed and will shortly overtake Darkest Hour to be their third biggest of the year after Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again and Jurassic World; Fallen Kingdom.
While The Grinch has overtaken 2000’s How the Grinch Stole Christmas taking £15,167,543 but that would be £27,129,219 inflation inflated which will might be a squeeze with Mary Poppins Returns opening on Friday.
Has become the 46th biggest animated film in the UK between Brave and Monsters vs. Aliens (overtaking Moana, Arthur Christmas and A Christmas Carol) and the 63rd biggest inflation inflated animated film between The Pirates! In an Adventure With Scientists and Chicken Little (Puss in Boots, Antz and Kung Fu Panda 2).
Has overtaken 2011’s Despicable Me to be Illumination Entertainment 6th biggest film in the UK (8 films have taken over £255m) Depending on how The Grinch holds over the Christmas holidays it might overtake Sing £28,840,000.
After The Grinch held so strongly against Ralph Breaks the Internet over the last three weeks next years The Secret Life of Pets 2 and Toy Story 4 will be an interesting battle. The Secret Life of Pets 2 opens four weeks before Toy Story 4 but is unlikely to have previews the weekend before as Aladdin opens for Bank Holiday weekend.
July 2013 was the last time Illumination Entertainment went head to head with Pixar film with Despicable Me 2 opening three weeks before Monsters University taking £17m more £46,815,412 Vs £29,768,407. Despite The Secret Life of Pets feeling like a Pixar knock-off still took £35,825,195 in 2016 and sequel likely to do the same.
4. Ralph Breaks The Internet – £1,402,006 – £9,324,458
Down 42.7% in its third weekend
Ralph Breaks The Internet took 59% less than Wreck-It Ralph in its third weekend taking £3,420,196 and 50% less than its total of £18,624,692.
Disney opened Wreck-It Ralph the week before half-term and was the only children’s film on release. Ralph Breaks The Internet opened three weeks after The Grinch but with much better reviews and as a sequel Wreck-It Ralph which took £23,607,542 five years ago.
Opening four weeks after The Grinch would normally be a big enough gap for two children’s films to find an audience for both of them. This normally happens during school holidays but as both until this weekend both films are limited to weekend screenings has seen two films cannibalize each other, As often the first family film to open has an advantage over the second.
Two years ago Moana took similar £1,424,527 in its third weekend taking 36% less £6,835,836. Moana went on to take £8,358,415 over the Christmas period with total of £20,041,031.
In 2016 Mona was the only family film released for Christmas holidays as Monster Trucks and Ballerina weren’t really much competition, but Ralph Breaks The Internet has to deal with The Grinch continuing to hold strongly and Mary Poppins Returns opening on Friday.
In 2015 The Good Dinosaur took £1,273,294 and £6,748,842 and took £5,741,737 over the Christmas period with total of £14,810,130.
The Good Dinosaur had more competition with Snoopy And Charlie Brown: The Peanuts Movie and Daddy’s Home.
The problem with Ralph Breaks The Internet is The Emoji Movie ruined much of it while there are some nice touches like the Disney princess’s scene.
The end credits of Ralph Breaks The Internet include two post credit scenes the first a scene from the end of the trailers but wasn’t in the film, Disney have often included scenes in trailers that don’t appear in the film. The other has voiceover promising a sneak peek at Frozen 2 only for snowflakes to appear with Ralph and co singing Rick Astley’s Never Gonna Give You Up (a Rick Roll).
With Disney releasing The Nutcracker And The Four Realms and Mary Poppins Returns it was surprising they didn’t hold back Ralph Breaks The Internet to open in January 2019 as they held over Coco from 2017 as are doing so in many European territories. If Disney opened Ralph Breaks The Internet in January 2019 would have seen it open ahead of The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part opening four years after the first film.
5. Mortal Engines – £1,269,441 – NE
Universal Pictures strangely decided to open the film with previews on Saturday 8th December taking £578,861 on Saturday/Sunday and £380, 376 Mon-Thurs taking £959,237 from 6 days of previews; took only £310,763 Fri-Sun.
Not including Mortal Engines 6 days of previews it would be tenth instead of fifth.
Ahead of its release compared Mortal Engines with another fantasy flop also planned as a franchise 2006’s Eragon opened almost 12 year to the day with £1,317,687 with no previews. As Mortal Engines had 6 days of previews thought it might have taken its inflation inflated total opening of £2,129,404, but didn’t even take its 3-day opening.
Ahead of its release Mortal Engines reminded me of 2007’s The Golden Compass which was the first part of Philip Pullman’s trilogy His Dark Materials. The Golden Compass performed strongly in the UK opening with £7,243,984 (inflation inflated £11,289,139) taking £25,771,648 (inflation inflated £40,162,945) but the $180m film flopped in the US and saw Warner Bros bring New Line in-house.
It is very hard to open an original film in recent years especially opening against existing franchises as Mortal Engines did against both Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse and Aquaman. It didn’t need to be this way as instead of having previews from December 8th why didn’t Mortal Engines not just open the day before as it had done in many other countries. Last weekend had no major releases opening in either the UK or US, but this weekend had two other major released and Bumblebee previews in the UK and had two major releases in the US.
For all the success Universal Pictures have had this year with sequels Fifty Shades Freed, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again and Johnny English Strikes Back all failed to get close to previous films. Universal Picture’s only original film success was the Churchill biopic Darkest Hour, which became the must-see award contender.
While Mortal Engines was always likely to be a dead duck it made no sense to have previews from Saturday as it meant that the film was always going to be DOA before its official opening day. Never understand why studios open films internationally early as apart from James Bond or Marvel films and don’t understand why they have extended openings as they don’t expand the box office just shares it across more days.
Mortal Engines was always likely to perform similar to
Warcraft: The Beginning took 60% £2,171,126 of its opening weekend from previews and 61% of its total box office from its opening weekend £3,623,725 taking £5,947,228
Assassin’s Creed took 64% £3,371,311 of its opening weekend from previews and 66% of its total box office from its opening weekend £5,285,064 taking £7,996,695.
With Mary Poppins Returns opening on Friday and Bumblebee having more previews from December 24th Mortal Engines will lose screens very quickly. This again asks the question over flexible theatrical windows what is the point of Mortal Engines that will be out of cinemas within a month won’t but won’t legally be available on DVD till March.
With its inflated 9 day opening weekend will have one of the 10 biggest second weekend drops for a major release in the UK
Silence -90.45%; Sisters -88.25%; The Watch -84.88%; Transformers: Age of Extinction -84.77%; Ice Age: Collision Course -84.72%; A Monster Calls -83.80%; Bad Neighbours -83.35%; Assassin’s Creed -82.02% Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban -81.61%; Warcraft: The Beginning -79.91%
All of them have one thing in common all had opening weekends over 7 days.
UK box office in detail
This weekend’s top 10 box office took £14,579,803 up 48% from last weekend £9,850,637
The weekend admissions 1,240,083 down 36.7f% from last weekend 1,959,427; average ticket up from last year’s £7.49 to £7.55 for 2018;
16 films opened at weekend taking £9,904,517; Aquaman 52.8% (£5,230,285); Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse 23% (£2,279,995); Mortal Engines 12.8% (£1,269,441); remaining 13 films shared 13.3% (£1,124,796): Top three took 63.5% (£9,258,215) of the top 10; Aquaman (£5,230,285) 35.8%; Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse (£2,279,995) 15.6%; The Grinch (£1,747,935) 11.9%
The weekend was down 54% from 2017: (£31,690,287): Star Wars: The Last Jedi (£28,010,841); Mountain (£41,813); #1 Star Wars: The Last Jedi £31,690,287 (1st week)
Down 33.5% from 2016: (£21,944,702); Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (£17,305,011); The Nutcracker – Bolshoi 2016 (£135,026); #1 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story £17,305,011 (1st week )
Up 146.8% from 2015; (£5,906,053); The Nutcracker – Bolshoi 2014 (£72,188); The Magic Flute – Met Opera 2006 (£56,451); Grandma (£35,916); By the Sea (£24,770); When Harry Met Sally (Re: 2015) (£4,975); #1 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 £1,286,244 (4rd week)
Down 15.6% from 2014: (£17,287,911); The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies (£9,753,642); Tinker Bell and the Legend of the NeverBeast (£395,454); Die Meistersinger von Nurnberg – Met Opera 2014 (£192,191); Merchants of Doubt (£323); #1 The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies £9,753,642 (1st week)
Down 12.9% from 2013: (£16,740,270); The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (£9,325,626); Falstaff – Metropolitan Opera 2013 (£224,763); #1 The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug £9,325,626 (1st week)
Down 11.8% from 2012 (£16,530,942); The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (£11,601,538); Tinker Bell and the Secret of the Wings 3D (£528,820); Smashed (£1,991); Home Alone (Re: 2012) (£1,716); Neil Young Journeys (£423); Code Name: Geronimo (£388); #1 The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey £11,601,538 (1st week)
Up 95.1% from 2011 (£7,474,721); Puss in Boots (£1,975,758); New Year’s Eve (£1,285,552); A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas (£183,798); Another Earth (£90,950); #1 Puss in Boots £1,975,758 (1st week)
Up 81.9% from 2010: (£8,015,202); Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader (£2,460,118); The Tourist (£1,341,143); Somewhere (£125,581); #1 Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader £2,460,118 (1st week)
Up 113.5% from 2009 (£6,826,766); Where The Wild Things Are (£883,990); Carriers (£69,224); The Red Shoes (re) (£13,336); The Stepfather (£40,056); #1 A Christmas Carol £1,544,226 (1st week)
Up 66.7% from 2008; (£8,742,920); The Day the Earth Stood Still (£2,752,132); Inkheart (£700,146); Dean Spanley (£42,898); White Christmas (re) (£7,518); #1 The Day the Earth Stood Still £2,752,132 (1st week)
Up 43.9% from 2007:(£10,130,524): Enchanted (£2,547,975); Bee Movie (£2,281,393); Mr Magorium’s Wonder Emporium (£459,734); We Own the Night (£441,416); It’s a Wonderful Life (RE) (£15,025); My Kid Could Paint That (£2,336); #1 The Golden Compass £3,002,951 (2nd week)
Up 51.6% from 2006; (£9,614,556); Eragon (£1,317,687); Déjà Vu (£1,098,295); Black Christmas (£367,743); Grounded (£240,378); Deep Water (£17,716); #1 Happy Feet £2,034,916 (2nd week)
Up 5.7% from 2005 (£13,786,105); King Kong (£6,944,740); The Family Stone (£247,515); Lassie (£132,926); #1 King Kong £ 6,944,740 (1st week)
Up 41.3% from 2004 (£10,315,744): Blade: Trinity (£2,633,626); Phantom of the Opera (£1,219,310); Garden State (£128,366); #1 Blade: Trinity £2,633,626 (1st week)
Up 100.1% from 2003 (£7,288,995); The Fighting Temptations (£151,994); Touching the Void (£115,332); Dead End (£52,130); Lord of the Rings: The 2 Towers (Sp. Ed) (£42,378); #1 Love Actually £2,273,706 (4th week)
Up 132.2% from 2002 (£6,276,464); Like Mike (£246,169); Dirty Pretty Things (£141,865); #1 Die Another Day £2,220,351 (4th week)
Up 177.7% from 2001 (£5,249,630); The Deep End (£68,988); #1 Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone £2,391,251 (5th week)
Next weekend in 2017: (£29,632,571); Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (£8,154,548); Pitch Perfect 3 (£4,334,525); Ferdinand (£3,644,748); #1 Star Wars: The Last Jedi (£10,158,640) 2nd weekend
Also opened
- Once Upon A Deadpool
Took £257,794 from 399 screens having one evening performance on December 11st
20th Century Fox’s marketing campaign for the film was it was a PG-13 version of the R-rated version released in May, (taking £32,501,893) but the film received 15 certificate the same as the cinema version ruining the joke of the recut as younger audiences can’t see it in the UK; the recut is two minutes shorter with 20 minutes of additional footage included.
Other Film News
Bohemian Rhapsody took £537,344 taking £45,147,461 and is £2,132,539 behind The Greatest Showman celebrating its 1st anniversary added £47,829 from 58 screens bringing its total to £47.28m
Has become the 47th biggest film in the UK between Harry Potter & The Prisoner Of Azkaban and The Inbetweeners Movie and 84th biggest inflation inflated between Slumdog Millionaire and Paddington 2.
Cinema admissions are expected to grow slightly for the first time since 2002 which generated headline as if they were to increase to 176m they would be the highest since 1971. This sounds impressive, but the previous highest was 2002 with 175.9m after which happened after 16 years of regularly growth.
This growth is due to industry claiming average ticket prices have dropped 3% to £7.25 which is farcical while there are anomalies of Darlington Odeon with tickets of £3.75 most cinema charge closer to £10 and many cinemas are closer to double with IMAX, PLF, 4DX and then of course have the Odeon Leicester Square with tickets up to £40.75.
The growth of admissions in 2018 is dependent on December admissions topping 16m but last weekend the box office dropped over 50% from last year with Star Wars: The Last Jedi opening down over 2m admissions.
If admissions do top 176m it will depend a lot on Mary Poppins Returns box office taking £50m+ which will be Disney’s third £50m+ earner of the year after Avengers Infinity War and Black Panther.
UK Box Office Top 10
US Box office
• Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse – Sony Pictures
Opened with $35.36m; received 97% Rotten Tomatoes (similar to Black Panther) and A+ CinemaScore.
Much was made about the films diversity comparing it to Black Panther and Crazy Rich Asians but the film opened as tracking expected a month ago playing to comic-book fans, how it holds over the coming weeks will show if it plays beyond that audience.
After taking $3.5m from Thursday previews some expected it might open closer to $40m.
Nominated for Golden Globe Best Animated Film and Critics Choice Awards and with strong word of mouth should perform strongly throughout the lucrative Christmas holidays despite the arrival of Aquaman and Bumblebee opening this weekend.
Opened with $21m from 44 territories expands into another 11 territories next weekend including China.
• The Mule – Warner Bros
Opened with $17.5m; received 62% Rotten Tomatoes score and A- CinemaScore
Having his biggest opening as an actor since 2000’s Space Cowboys $18.09m taking $90.48m
- Ralph Breaks the Internet – Disney
Dropped 42.9% in its fourth weekend taking $9.27m and $154.14m; after opening 15% bigger than Wreck-It Ralph it has now taken only 3.26% more.
Wreck-It Ralph in November 2012 took $16.57m in its fourth weekend and $149.27m with $49.1m taking $189.42m and $471.22m worldwide #216 biggest film worldwide between San Andreas and Jaws.
Took $7.9m from 45 territories and $130.7m and $285.2m worldwide; #492 biggest film worldwide between Wedding Crashers and John Carter; top markets are China $39m; Mexico $16.4m; Russia $12.5m; UK $11.9m and Spain $6.6m; still has many more territories including Australia, Italy, Korea, Brazil, Germany and France to open between now and February.
• Mortal Engines – Universal Pictures
Opened with $7.55m; received poor reviews only 27% Rotten Tomatoes score and B- CinemaScore
A month ago Mortal Engines was tracking to open between $12-18m much less than 2007’s The Golden Compass many compared the film to as it was also based on a fantasy book series plans to be a film franchise, opened with $25.78m taking $70.1m in the US and $372.2m worldwide.
Took $11.5m from 54 territories and $34.8m total and $42.3m worldwide.
The film is expected to lose over $100m with Universal Pictures putting up 30% of the budget the rest split between MRC and legendary Pictures.
As with all major flows the inquest already started over why the film flopped with many saying wasn’t the fault of Universal Pictures marketing team as the films marketing started with teaser trailer attached to Star Wars: The Last Jedi last December.
But why did Universal Pictures decide to open Mortal Engines a week earlier internationally especially as last weekend had no major releases Had Mortal Engines opened last weekend it would have at least had one weekend before negativity spread but opening a week later the film was DOA.
Do not understand why studios keep choosing to open films internationally early as apart from Marvel and James Bond most films that open internationally early suffer at the US box office. The US market is still the most important territory for US films as China artificially inflates box office, so it never makes sense that studios still open so many films internationally early.
Could compare Mortal Engines with Warcraft also opened internationally early had a decent first week internationally but then opened the week after only $24.16m taking $47.36m in the US.
• Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch – Universal Pictures
Down 21.8% in its sixth weekend taking $11.75m and $239.46m
Despite mixed reviews The Grinch has held strongly squeezing Ralph Breaks the Internet box office showing how important it is to be the first animated film released.
The Grinch continues to hold similar to How the Grinch Stole Christmas despite opening 18 years later taking $12.24m down 31.2% in its sixth weekend and $232.63m taking $260.04m and $345.1m worldwide
Previous Illumination Entertainment (not Despicable Me films)
The Secret Life of Pets in July 2016 dropped 21.2% with $9.06m and $336.16m and $368.3m and $875.4m worldwide
Sing in December 2016 increased 28.8% with $6.4m and $257.59m taking $270.3m and $634.1m worldwide
While the first Despicable Me in July 2010 dropped 24.9% with $6.97m taking $22.19m and $251,.5m and $543.1m worldwide
Took $23.3m from 61 territories and $33.4m total and $372.2m worldwide; #312 biggest film worldwide between Penguins of Madagascar and The Golden Compass.
2000’s How the Grinch Stole Christmas took 75% of its total box office from the US $260.1m Vs $85.1m and $345.1m worldwide; Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax took 61% of its total box office from the US $214.1m Vs $134.8m and $348.8m worldwide
- Creed 2 – MGM
Dropped 46% in its fourth weekend taking $5.38m and $104.87m; too 9.1% more than Creed after four weeks.
Creed dropped 32.5% in its fourth weekend taking $5.01m and $96.08m taking $109.76m and $173.56m worldwide
While Ralph Breaks the Internet, The Grinch and The Crimes of Grindelwald have taken less than previous films Creed 2 has performed better because of a lack of competition as most of the other films on release are targeting family audiences.
Took $2.3m from 32 territories and $27m total and $132m worldwide; Creed took $173.56m in 2016.
• Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald – Warner Bros
Dropped 45.5% in its fifth weekend taking $3.78m and $151.79m; has taken 27% less than Fantastic Beasts.
Has become Warner Bros third biggest film of the year after A Star is Born (shortly to take $200m) and Crazy Rich Asians
Fantastic Beasts dropped 51.3% in its fifth weekend taking $5.07m and $207.72m
Took $11.8m internationally from 80 territories and $444.2m total and $595.95m worldwide #147 biggest film worldwide between Casino Royale and Tangled; taking Japan $40.6m; Germany $35.9m; France $30.2m; China $57.3m and the UK $38.9m; Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them is #74 taking $814m in 2016
• Bohemian Rhapsody – 20th Century Fox
Dropped 29.8% in its seventh weekend taking $4.31m and $180.61m;
Bohemian Rhapsody is 20th Century Fox’s second biggest film of 2018 and 30th in the US between The Simpsons Movie and Planet of the Apes (2001)
Took $20m from 58 territories $455.5m total and $635m worldwide; #127th biggest film worldwide between Moana and Sing.
Bohemian Rhapsody has become 20th Century Fox’s highest grossing film in 2018 internationally and is their 12th highest grossing film of all time (ahead of Deadpool) and is the 14th film in 2018 to take over $400m internationally.
While Bohemian Rhapsody was expected to be a huge hit in the UK it has been surprised in many countries including Italy where its #1 after three weeks and is the second biggest film of the year. In Japan has taken $47.3m, Australia $26.8m and Holland’s $11.3m.
While Korea has overtaken the UK as the biggest overseas market for the film taking $61.1m down only 10% in its seventh weekend and has become the second biggest US film in 2018 and ninth biggest ever; sing-along screenings have been hugely popular since they
• Once Upon A Deadpool – 20th Century Fox
Opened with $2.68m and $3.96m total
Took $1m from 12 territories; Once Upon A Deadpool box office has been added to Deadpool 2 total $419m internationally and $738.1m worldwide #99 between The Matrix Reloaded and Up.
• If Beale Street Could Talk – Annapurna Pictures
Opened with $224,476 from 4 screens;
Barry Jenkin’s previous film 2016’s Moonlight opened with $402,075 from 4 screens
Received critical acclaim ever since it premiered at the Toronto Film Festival in September receiving 94% Rotten Tomatoes score
Was included by both the National Board of Review and American Film Institute as one of the Top 10 Films of 2018 and was nominated for three Golden Globes Best Motion Picture – Drama, Best Supporting Actress (King) and Best Screenplay.
Expands into 65 screens on Christmas Day with further expansion in January
• The Favourite – Fox Searchlight
Added 358 screens in its fourth weekend up 73.3% taking $2.6m and $6.77m.
Despite adding 358 screens failed to climb the charts holding at 12th.
Received five Golden Globes nominations for Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy, Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress for Olivia Colman and Emma Stone and Best Screenplay and 14 Critics Choice Award nominations
Expands into 775 screens this weekend
• Mary Queen of Scots – Focus Features
Added 62 screens in its second weekend up 259.3% taking $699,745 and $ 962,580 total
Adds 700 screens this weekend
UK Box Office Predictions
Mary Poppins Returns is a very hard film to predict especially not having any idea about how advance bookings are going, checking a few cinemas advance sales do look much softer than Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again.
With rivals Aquaman, Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse, Mortal Engines and Bumblebee opting to cannibalize each other than open against Mary Poppins as Aquaman and Bumblebee are doing in the US. Mary Poppins Returns is able to take control of the box office as Star Wars has done over the last three years.
While the original film is beloved by children of all ages the question is Mary Poppins Returns as while some critics raved about its others not so much felt it’s a poor imitation of the original. As seen with Star Wars and other re-imaginations Disney seem to go for the direct remake approach rather than adding anything to the story as was seen with The Lion King trailer, which was a scene by scene remake of the classic animated film.
With the four new releases from this weekend all likely to drop heavily due to having extended previews with Mortal Engines likely to drop about 90% might not even chart in the top 10 in its second weekend.
Aquaman has received positive word of mouth but has to compete against Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse again at the weekend will likely drop 60% from its five-day opening. Despite Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse having strong word of mouth due to having 6 days of previews inflating its opening will see it drop up to 50%.
Despite the arrival of Mary Poppins Returns The Grinch and Ralph Breaks the Internet are likely to have the best drops in the top 10
Opening in UK
- Mary Poppins Returns – Disney
Musical fantasy sequel to 1964’s Mary Poppins starring Emily Blunt, Lin-Manuel Miranda, Ben Whishaw, Emily Mortimer, Julie Walters, Dick Van Dyke, Angela Lansbury, Colin Firth, and Meryl Streep and directed by Rob Marshall.
It was officially announced in September 2015 with Rob Marshall signed in September and Blunt and Miranda cast in February 2016.
Had its world premiere in Los Angeles on November 29, 2018 and European premiere on December 12th at the Royal Albert Hall
Has one of the longest gaps between film sequels in history at 54 years; named by National Board of Review and American Film Institute as one of the top ten films of 2018 and received four Golden Globe nominations including for Best Motion Picture Musical or Comedy (but surprisingly no nominations for song or music) and nine nominations at the 24th Critics’ Choice Awards; critical reviews have been more mixed currently with 78% Rotten Tomatoes in comparison original film has 100% Rotten Tomatoes score.
With the sugar tax in the UK has Mary Poppins spoonful of sugar has been replaced with spoonful of aspartame, as with all artificial sweeteners the nostalgia leaves a bitter aftertaste as was the case watching Star Wars: The Force Awakens and recent The Lion King trailer. With Mary Poppins Returns Disney have made another memberberries movie.
Walt Disney had planned to make a sequel to Mary Poppins even since the original film was released but was but was rejected by author P. L. Travers.
The original has been delighting children of all ages ever since it was released 54 years ago, and the way films were released and how audiences saw films in cinemas has changed dramatically since.
Mary Poppins opened in the US in August 1964 four months before opening in the UK. Mary Poppins Returns opens almost 54 years to the day Mary Poppins opened in London at the Odeon Leicester Square Theatre and Haymarket on December 23rd, 1964 breaking box office records at both cinemas after having its UK premiere at the Odeon Square Theatre on December 17th, 1964. Played exclusively in London until early April before its slowly expanded in cinemas across the UK.
Mary Poppins Returns is the first film to be shown at the Odeon Leicester Square after being closed for almost a year after extensive refurbishment. Seating in the cinema has been halved and replaced with recliners which has seen top price seats increase to £40.75. Odeon Leicester Square has always been the most expensive cinema in the West End,
20 years ago after the cinemas last major refurbishment it opened in August 1998 with Armageddon with top price tickets £10 slightly more than Empire, Odeon West End and Warner West End now they are almost £20 more. 20 years ago there was a real noticeable different in cinema quality and presentation in Leicester Square to local cinemas but now all cinemas are digital many have 4K IMAX and Laser across the country, so the quality should be similar (of course it isn’t and there are still many issues) but shouldn’t be a £10+ +premium to see films in Leicester Square anymore.
Over recent years the cinema has been rarely full away from premieres and media screenings but the reason for that was down to £25 seats. In the late 80s and 90s I would regularly pay to see films at the cinema as all other cinemas in Leicester Square but haven’t paid to see a film there over the last decade. Exhibitors always say they don’t make any money from cinema tickets so always amazes me when ticket prices increase, and exhibitors install recliners as they both reduce the number of seats sold.
A few days before Mary Poppins Returns opens at the Odeon Leicester Square more than half the seats are still available for its first evening show on Friday night. Over the years gone by I would often walk past the cinema on opening weekend and sell the sold out sign outside the cinema selling all of its 1,679 seats. Now the cinema holds less than half and it won’t sell those out.
Mary Poppins is the 29th biggest film in the UK with 14 million admissions taking £2.4m which would be over £105m today.
Comparisons are difficult with
2018’s Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! opened with £9,735,930 taking £65,515,994
2005’s The Lion, The Witch And The Wardrobe opened with £8,884,111 taking £43,905,853
2017’s Beauty and the Beast opened with £19,700,000 taking £72,430,579
2016’s The Jungle Book opened with £9,901,921 taking £46,235,032
2016’s Bridget Jones’s Baby opened with £8,111,077 taking £48,150,737
2017’s Paddington 2 opened with £8,260,160 taking £42,642,938
- Bumblebee – Paramount Pictures (Monday)
The sixth instalment of the Transformers film series and the prequel to 2007’s Transformers starring Hailee Steinfeld, John Cena, Jorge Lendeborg Jr., John Ortiz, Jason Drucker, and Pamela Adlon and voices of Dylan O’Brien, Peter Cullen, Angela Bassett and Justin Theroux and directed by Travis Kniq ght. It is the Transformers film not to be directed by Michael Bay.
Had fan screenings in Berlin on December 2nd and London on December 9th social media reaction was positive from the screenings and has received positive reviews with 97% Rotten Tomatoes score with most saying it was the best film of the series.
As with Mortal Engines and Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse Bumblebee opening weekend is inflated with extensive previews having six days of previews over last weekend December 15th/16th (taking £670,000) and then previews from Christmas Eve to December 27th with its official opening December 28th.
When the film was inn production it was being compared to The Iron Giant and Real Steel robot films.
2007’s Transformers opened with £8,718,561
2009’s Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen opened with £8,349,739
2011’s Transformers: Dark of the Moon opened with £10,728,503
2014’s Transformers: Age of Extinction opened with £11,756,482
2017’s Transformers: The Last Knight opened with £4,635,570
As Bumblebee Transformers: Dark of the Moon and Transformers: Age of Extinction both had extensive previews inflated their opening with £4,226,736 and £8,044,230
Bumblebee was originally rated 12A by the BBFC but was reclassified as a PG after several seconds were cut Paramount Pictures did similar in Australia as the trailers tonally make the film look like its aimed at a much younger audience similar to Jumanji or Monsters Trucks.
- Holmes and Watson – Sony Pictures
Mystery comedy starring Will Ferrell, John C. Reilly, Rebecca Hall, Ralph Fiennes, Rob Brydon, Kelly Macdonald, Lauren Lapkus, and Hugh Laurie and written and directed by Etan Cohen.
The film was first announced in 2008 with Sacha Baron Cohen as Holmes and Will Ferrell as Dr. Watson after many years of development announced in 2016 John C. Reilly and Will Ferrell would star together almost 10 years after starring together in the classic comedy Step Brothers.
Filming started in December 2016 and was originally set for August 2018 release before moving to November and then December; first trailer was released in September.
Holmes and Watson is the only Christmas film that hasn’t been unveiled by the studio which does make you think it was dated for Christmas Day release in the US the same reason as Father Figures opened Christmas last year.
- Aquaman – Warner Bros
The xix film of the DC Extended Universe starring Jason Momoa, Amber Heard, Willem Dafoe, Patrick Wilson, Dolph Lundgren, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, and Nicole Kidman and directed by James Wan.
The third film featuring Aquaman after 2016’s Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice and 2017’s Justice League.
Aquaman started development in 2004 but wasn’t officially announced until October 2014 with James Wan signed to direct in April 2015.
The film has received positive reviews, but some felt it was overlong (143mins)
Aquaman took $126.4m international from 42 territories and $261.3m total; #1 in all 42 territories #539 biggest film worldwide between Total Recall and Michael Jackson’s This Is It.
Aquaman is expected to open with $110m over its five-day opening and $65m over its opening weekend having the lowest opening of DC Extended Universe film in the US but with positive reviews and strong word of mouth is expected to hold much stronger than most of the other films; on December 15th had Amazon paid previews and has had strong advance sales.
Man of Steel opened with $116.61m taking $291.04m; Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice opened with $166m taking $330.3m; Suicide Squad opened with $133.68m taking $325.1m; Wonder Woman opened with $103.25m taking $412.56m and Justice League opened with $93.84m taking $229.9m
The five films have taken $1.58bn in the US and $40.3bn worldwide.
- Bumblebee – Paramount Pictures
With positive reviews and strong word of mouth expected to open with $40m+ between Friday and Tuesday its likely to cannibalize with Aquaman as its targetting similar demographic.
- Second Act – STX Entertainment
Romantic comedy starring Jennifer Lopez, Vanessa Hudgens, Leah Remini, Annaleigh Ashford, Dan Bucatinsky, Freddie Stroma, Milo Ventimiglia, Treat Williams and Larry Miller and directed by Peter Segal
Has similar pot to the Darren Star TV series Younger about a 40-year-old mother who gets a second chance after creating a fake CV and is also comparable to Working Girl which opened almost 30 years to the day with $4.71m taking $63.77m and $102.95m worldwide.
Was originally set for November release but delayed to December after positive test screenings (earlier this year STX similarly moved the release of I Feel Pretty after it tested strongly opened with $16.03m taking $46.79m and $94.53m worldwide) ; has received mixed reviews and is expected to open $9m over its opening five days.
20 years ago Jennifer Lopez starred in Out of Sight at the time her acting career was developing strongly but then came Gigli in 2003 was a massive failure but it took Jennifer Lopez much longer to have a comeback than her co-star Ben Affleck while its director Martin Brest hasn’t made a film since; in recent years she starred in TV series Shades of Blue and voicing several animated films alongside her music career her song Limitless features in the film.
Opened with $1.3m from 20 smaller territories
- Welcome to Marwen – Universal Pictures
Drama starring Steve Carell, Leslie Mann, Diane Kruger, Merritt Wever, Janelle Monáe, Eiza González, Gwendoline Christie, Leslie Zemeckis, and Neil Jackson and directed by Robert Zemeckis; inspired by Jeff Malmberg’s 2010 documentary Marwencol.
Robert Zemeckis’s production company ImageMovers acquired the film rights in 2013 Leonardo DiCaprio was originally attached to star
Robert Zemeckis last directed 2016’s Allied opened with $12.7m taking $40.09m and is expected to open between $7m-$9m.
Welcome to Marwen is likely to suffer following on from Mortal Engines disappointing opening as another original film being cannibalized around all the tentpoles.
- Mary Poppins Returns – Disney (Wednesday)
Opening on Wednesday ahead of the competition expected to open with $55m+ Wednesday- Sunday and $70m+ from Wednesday to Christmas Day.
