Are many excellent articles online about US box office predictions but while Charles Gant had his excellent weekly Guardian film box office analysis there aren’t the similar UK box office predictions.
So, with Avengers Infinity War opening in the UK in less than 12 hours’ time in over 600 cinemas having over 2,000-midnight screenings alone thought I would.
But it’s much harder to compare UK opening weekends than it is the US as a film opening weekend used to be Friday but 25+years ago this extended to having one preview screening the night before with films like Indecent Proposal and Jurassic Park. The previews extended to all day Thursday and then previews over weekends before over the decades that followed made it difficult to compare opening weekend box office.
While the US has extended to 7pm previews on Thursday that is added to its opening, but all other box office earnt prior to that point is still not included. Likewise, as ticket prices have gone up 17.5% (according to trade figures) over the last 5 years it’s hard to compare films that opened only a few years ago. As ticket prices have gone up almost 50% since Iron Man the first Marvel Cinematic Universe film was released 10 years ago. Of course, my issue has been that while industry might claim average ticket price is £7.49 majority of people will be paying close to double if not more to see Avengers: Infinity War this weekend.
Avengers Infinity War will be showing 121 times at my local multiplex over its 4-day opening weekend as many of the 600 cinemas that will have over 70,000 screenings with 10m+ seats available will sell about 25% £23m+ of £90m+ potential sales.
Tickets went on sale over a month ago and were reports Odeon selling a ticket every 10 seconds and was their fifth highest selling advance booking film ever ahead of Avengers: Age of Ultron and Spectre. While some of the key locations including BFI IMAX have sold many screenings at £22.75 will be hundreds of thousands of seats still available for midnight screenings and millions for its opening weekend.
Avengers: Infinity War was the first film to be entirely shot with IMAX/Arri 65 2D cameras; IMAX released a video last week showing why cinemagoers should see the film in IMAX. Of course, are many different forms of IMAX from Laser IMAX, 70mm IMAX to Digital IMAX aka fake IMAX when exhibitors converted regular cinemas screens into IMAX cinemas but with a screen more than half the size of regular IMAX but charge the same for the experience.
Avengers: Infinity War is the nineteenth film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and second sequel to 2012’s Marvel’s The Avengers and 2015’s Avengers: Age of Ultron. Starring Robert Downey Jr., Chris Hemsworth, Mark Ruffalo, Chris Evans, Scarlett Johansson, Benedict Cumberbatch, Don Cheadle, Tom Holland, Chadwick Boseman, Paul Bettany, Elizabeth Olsen, Anthony Mackie, Sebastian Stan, and Chris Pratt and directed by Anthony and Joe Russo.
In October 2014 Marvel announced there would be a two-part sequel to Avengers: Age of Ultron infinity War Part 1 to be released May 4th, 2018 and Infinity War Part 2 to be released May 3rd, 2019. In May 2016 it was announced that they would be two films rather than one film split in two with the first film called Infinity War and the second film Avengers 4 currently untitled due to it being a spoiler for Infinity War.
When it was announced it was going to be a two-part film there were rumours that the two films would have a shared budget of $1 billion in comparison Avengers: Age of Ultron had a budget of $280m, Captain America Civil War $250m, Avengers Assemble $220m while the first MCU film Iron Man had a budget of $140m.
Has been reported Infinity War is the second most expensive film ever after 2011’s Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides had cost $380m. But as Infinity War was shot back-to-back with Avengers 4 its unlikely was much change from $1 billion when including the production costs and marketing for the two films. While Disney is happy enough to spend $300m+ on a franchise
With Avengers: Infinity War featuring all the Avengers from the previous 18 films are over 30 actors all commanding big salaries; was reported in Variety in 2015 Robert Downey Jr getting $40m+, Scarlett Johansson and Chris Evans $6.9m and Jeremy Renner, Chris Hemsworth $5m+ with Mark Ruffalo getting $3m.
This compares to for Avengers Assemble Robert Downey, Jr. $50m, Scarlett Johansson and Samuel L. Jackson $6m and Chris Evans, Chris Hemsworth, Jeremy Renner, and Mark Ruffalo $3m each. So, salaries alone for the two films could be over $400m and then add $200m+ budgets for both films the budget could easily top $1bn that is before the $150m+ marketing campaign each film is receiving (of course it also has big promotional partners also spending millions).
Unlike previous Marvel Cinematic Universe films, Infinity Wars didn’t have regional premieres but had its world premiere in Los Angeles on April 23rd. Instead, they screened 30 minutes of footage during the films press tour in March/April. According to the directors, this was done to avoid spoilers being leaked and the trailers were similar to what Disney has done with their Star Wars films trolling fans with misinformation as the film won’t go the way fans think.
The social media embargo broke after the Los Angeles premiere and the reaction was predictably very positive but premiere reaction is always as people are so hyped up. Most said if you liked previous MCU films will enjoy Infinity War but those that didn’t like Captain America Civil War airport scene (like me) might not like it.
The airport scene while a favourite for many went on far too long and was never going to be a conclusion to the film as these are Avengers fighting each other was similar to Batman fighting Superman in Batman Vs Superman: Dawn of Justice. It reminds me of the end scene in War Games when the computer leans through playing tic-tac-toe that nuclear war is “a strange game” in which “the only winning move is not to play.” and instead offers to play “a nice game of chess.”
The review embargo ended at 11pm on Tuesday and again the response was positive but while Avengers Assemble had a 92% Rotten Tomatoes score Avengers: Infinity War started with 90% before nowadays later at 86% and will likely slip closer to Avenger: Age of Ultron 75% over the weeks ahead.
The first trailer was released in November 2017 was viewed almost 500,000 times in the first 15 minutes on YouTube and seen 230m times in its first 24 hours overtaking the teaser trailer for It which was the previous most watched trailer in its first 24 hours seen 197m times. Of course, the two films can’t be compared to Avengers: Infinity War teaser trailer was released with far more hype and anticipation around it. The second trailer released in March was seen 179m times normally the official trailer is viewed more times than the teaser (apart from It). The teaser for Beauty and the Beast was seen 91.4m times but the trailer 127.6m times.
With so many previous Marvel Cinematic Universe films having extended opening weekends as Doctor Strange, Thor: Ragnarok and Black Panther it’s much harder to compare openings. Eight years ago, Avengers Assemble opened with £15,778,074 including £2,553,440 from previews. Three years later Avengers: Age of Ultron opened with £18,015,774 (15% bigger) and £3,599,937 from previews.
Since then with the exception of Ant-Man opening with only £4,011,345 all other MCU films have opened with over £9m. Avengers: Infinity War will likely open with upwards of £22m including £3.9m from previews. What will be interesting to see is how 3D and IMAX box office share is as back in 2012 3D was still very popular while Infinity War was shot in IMAX.
While Avengers: Infinity War is expected to have one of the biggest opens in the US close to Star Wars: The Force Awakens it won’t in the UK but will have the biggest opening in the UK for an MCU film. But as it doesn’t open in China until May 11th won’t have the biggest global opening weekend
Avengers: Infinity War is it’s selling the film as the culmination of the last ten years with s Thanos saying the end is near but like the Star Wars anthology films are no real tension as we know Marvel have another 1000+ films planned. After Star Wars: The Last Jedi we know one that it won’t go the way you think from the trailers so while most will be expecting some conclusion to the story and some deaths of major Avengers instead will set up the next phase of the MCU with Thanos returning again in Avengers 6.
10 years ago, MCU was fresh and new but now after 19 films with similar plots and similar characters arrogant egotistical rich males seeking redemption as with most of the X-Men and the DC Extended Universe films are feeling tiresome and seeing them is feeling like Groundhog Day.
I was never a huge comic-book fan, but I enjoyed many of the earlier Marvel Cinematic Universe films up to Ant-Man with the exception of Avengers: Age of Ultron (as I did with Tim Burton’s Batman, Christopher Nolan’s The Dark Knight, Bryan Singer’s X-Men films) but as all of the films since have been as successful as the earlier films audiences don’t seem to care.
But after Deadpool in 2016 and Wonder Woman and the trailers for Deadpool 2 Avengers: Infinity War feels unexciting to me, of course, I’m in the minority and the millions who pre-booked will be seeing it over its opening weekend.
My issue with Avengers: Infinity War is that it is marketed as the culmination of 10 years of Marvel Cinematic Universe but as with Star Wars we know are infinite films planned makes the battles with Avengers Vs Thanos and Resistance Vs The First Order feel like Wile E. Coyote and the Road Runner after 48 shorts over 31 years they do finally catch up and roles reverse.
In an interview with the weekend director James Cameron said, “I’m hoping we’ll start getting ‘Avenger’ fatigue here pretty soon,” “Not that I don’t love the movies. It’s just, comes on guys, there are other stories to tell besides hyper-gonadal males without families doing death-defying things for two hours and wrecking cities in the process. It’s like, oy!” James Cameron is currently in pre-production of four Avatar films and another Terminator reboot. Marvel Studios Kevin Feige was asked about James Cameron’s comments saying “Uh, he loves the movies!” “That’s awesome! Wow, James Cameron loves our movies! That’s exciting!”
The excellent Honest Trailers for The Avengers, Avengers: Age of Ultron and Captain America Civil War aka Avengers 2.5
The 18 Marvel Cinematic Universe films have taken over £500m at the UK box office over the last 10 years.
Avengers Assemble is currently the biggest MCU film in the UK taking £51,873,408 which is the 28th biggest film in the UK with Black Panther #31 with £49,858,826 and Avengers: Age of Ultron #36 with £48,338,124; Avengers: Infinity Wat is expected to have the biggest opening for an MCU film in the UK taking £22m+ for its four-day weekend becoming the third biggest 4 day opening weekend behind The Force Awakens and The Last Jedi and take £55m+.
While Black Panther had no real competition for over a month Deadpool 2 opens three weeks after Avengers: Infinity War after the positive reaction to the second trailer advance sales are strong an as comic-book fans are fickle Avengers: Infinity War won’t have the legs of Black Panther. But of course, after opening with £23m+ and taking £35m+ in 10+ days by the time Deadpool 2 opens it will likely be the biggest film of the year.
Ant-Man and the Wasp is the third Marvel Cinematic Universe film which opens in August it is the first MCU film to open after the US being delayed in the UK due to The Incredibles 2 being delayed a month to open ahead of the summer holidays. 2015’s Ant-Man was Disney’s lowest grossing MCU in the UK but that was more due to its marketing campaign being generic Marvel as the film was very different and more family friendly.
