Over the years there have been many issues with film tracking either over or under estimated opening weekends but this technology wasn’t created to predict films performance rather to track the awareness of the films marketing and how was recieved by audiences. But often films receive huge awareness nowadays this is centred on social media (but its still older media like the trailer and film poster generating this coverage and is why studios feel the need to release trailers earlier) but this doesn’t cross over into box office is seen often with films aimed at teens who like talking about films but often prefer to Tweet than pay to see the film.
Marshall McLuhan’s 1964 book Understanding Media: The Extensions of Man had a quote “The medium is the message.” which means as much then as it does now technology might of changed but we still seek the same information to guide and influence our decisions. Then it was more personal interactions computer based social media but still want the same result.
As screenwiter William Goldman famously wrote “Nobody knows anything…… Not one person in the entire motion picture field knows for a certainty what’s going to work. Every time out it’s a guess and, if you’re lucky, an educated one.” in his 1983 book Adventures in the Screen Trade and similarly to Jeffrey Katzenberg famous 1991 memo called the future of Hollywood which was the inspiration to Jerry Maguire. While many cinemagoers will just say ‘I don’t get it’ with their wallets and not go to see a film even after a massive marketing and media campaign. Similar to when Josh Baskin says in Big to the marketing experts as he plays with a new toy that their marketing research has told them making a Transformers out of a tower would make a good toy these marketing experts are too busy combining different elements into a toy and not thinking about the fun the toy would give which is similar to the way films are made often by and marketed today.
Often films are created by committee often taking the fun out of the film going experience as many critics have said about the new Pan film released next month.
There is much data available created by many marketing, social media and research companies which can be used as a guide but as seen with films like 50 Shades of Grey and Jurassic World there needs to be more flexibility and looking at these films differently. Compares including Rentrak, Marketcast, Way to Blue and Nielsen have created software to track data over days, weeks, months and maybe years before a films release but many companies seem to rely on this data which is one of the reasons film tracking has failed recently as it can’t predict the unexpected as like many polling systems and data gathering what people way might not be what they end up doing.
50 Shades of Grey most were shocked at its opening as they compared it to other films of its genre rather than looking at its source material being fan fiction of Twilight and if you compare it’s performance to those films they opened big and were very front loaded as 50 Shades was.
Jurassic World the pre release hype was comparing the film to the first films ignoring the third film if you do so then it’s opening was much more expected having the biggest opening of the year similar to Jurassic Park and The Lost World in 1993 and 1997. Since the arrival of comicbook movies many have forgotten that family adventure films like Jurassic World have a much wider audience compared to comicbook adaptions as they play to families and for Jurass World generations children who went with thier parents to see Jurassic Park in 1993 took thier children and thier grandparents came too.
There is much expected for the remaining big three films of 2015 all generated so much hype and expectations over the last months but how will they actual perform?
Can Spectre possibly top the success of Skyfall if you believe what Sony executives said in hacking emails it’s the best Bond in years but £100m will be hard to beat especially with much tougher competition. After Skyfall had the biggest 7 day box office they will be looking to do similar for its opening helped by opening on Monday giving it a 7 day opening weekend and being the school holidays.
Skyfall had a massive advantage on Spectre being the 50th anniversary of James Bond and having James Bond and The Queen part of the Opening Ceremony of the London Olympics. In the hacking emails Sony were looking to see if there was another big scale event they could be a part of in the UK to help launch Spectre but whatever it is it won’t have the media coverage.
The problem for Sony is after the huge success for Skyfall when you watch it the first time its great but its a far inferior James Bond than Casino Royale on repeat viewings. Skyfall opened in the US with $88.3m going on to take $304m. In the UK took £20.21m having the biggest ever Saturday taking £37.2m in its opening 7 days with Spectre opening on Monday it will have a 7 day opening weekend but will it be able to match Skyfall? It will be helped by many exhibitors having their blockbuster charge introduced last November £1 will be increased to £1.50 for Spectre. While official ticket prices have increased by 12% since Skyfall was released.
The Hunger Games Mockingjay Part 2
Should be the one film to live up to the hype helped as we have already seen the first part of this final chapter fans will want to enjoy it one last time. After 3 years and four films as Katniss Everdeen Jennifer Lawrence acting career moves into another gear with Joy and Passengers upcoming. The last two films opened with over $150m taking over $400m and the final film will likely do similar. The only problem it has is the amount of releases opening in the weeks after it opens.
In the UK Mockingjay Part 1 it opened with £12.64m compared with The Hunger Games: Catching Fire opened with £12.19m last November 2013 (includes Wed/Thurs previews £2.07m) taking £32.2m and The Hunger Games opened with £4.47m in March 2012 taking £23.8m.
Star Wars The Force Awakens
So much has already been written by so many “box office experts” predicting crazy opening numbers for the new Star Wars film released 10 years after the end of the prequels which were surrounded by massive hype and expectation the problem with this is films are rarely as good as the hype.
Many have predicted The Force Awakens will beat both Avatar and Titanic but cinema-going experiences has changed dramatically since then with films opening big with many predicting The Force Awakens to open with anything up to $200m but then will drop heavily in the weekends after likely to take 80% of its box office within 4 weeks of release.
Opening the weekend before Christmas could change this as films opening weekend before normally hold better following weekends which it will likely do unless it is truly terribly received as similar to 2010’s Tron Legacy dropping 56% in its second weekend which was Christmas Day weekend. The last three years the Hobbit films opened the same weekend dropping 56%, 57% but only 25% for the final film The Battle of the Five Armies. Similarly I Am Legend in 2007 dropped 56% and King Kong in 2005 57%.
Its hard to compare the second weekend drops the Star Wars prequels but it does show the massive change how films have become so front loaded in the last 16 years as The Phantom Menace might now be slated by many Star Wars fans but it held far better than the other two films.
Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace in 1999 20.7%
Star Wars: Episode II – Attack of the Clones in May 2002 40.2%
Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith in May 49.1%
Of course Disney would prefer a similar Avatar second weekend dropping only 1.8% and then 9.4% the following weekend. For Disney to have a chance for The Force Awakens they need to attract the female audience which is one of the reasons they teamed up with Covergirl to launch Star Wars inspired makeup range.
The fans will of course watch the film countless times is why Regal Cinemas are offering a Golden ticket $100 for unlimited viewings.
