Deadline wrote today Star Wars The Force Awakens would open with $615m including over $300m in the US for its opening weekend. These were the same box office experts who failed to predict Jurassic World’s $524m opening which had a much wider audience of families and played to men and women equally. The problem up till now is all the marketing for Star Wars has been targeting the fan-base and could also be alienating non fans more than the prequels with so much focussed on the returning characters.
One of the promotions Disney have is with Covergirl launching a Star Wars inspire makeup range next month and it is the female audience which will be vital if it is going to take on either Titanic or Avatar.
The pre hype before the prequels was huge but expectations are even higher on The Force Awakens as it features Luke, Han and Leia. Watching Ferris Bueller’s Day Off again always wanted to know what happen to Cameron when his dad got home; was for many years after plans for a sequel but never happened like many classic films Pretty Woman 2, Gladiator 2 and Forrest Gump 2 among many other that we would of loved to see but at the back of our minds worried will it be as good as the first as it rarely is. The same must be felt for fans of the original Star Wars films we always wanted to see what happened after Jedia but it ended the series so perfectly will sequels.
JJ Abrams has experience similar with all the praise he got with Star Trek reboot but then after all the hype had gone he was slated for the poor sequel.
The release of the first trailer last November only made the hype and expectations more and all further release of a clip or a trailer is doing more. The trailers might have been viewed over 100 million times but is that the existing fan-base or are the trailers exciting people who weren’t fans of the original films or prequels?
The Force Awakens will of course open big but most films the bigger the opening the bigger the drop $524m opening of Jurassic World globally many were predicting it to beat Avatar after it became the fastest film to take $1 billion in 13 days going on to take 85% of its box office to date in 4 weeks of release up to $1.6 billion now likely to get to about $1.8 billion after opening strongly in Japan recently still a long way off $2.2 billion of Titanic and $2.8 billion of Avatar released in 1997 and 2009 with ticket prices up at least 30% since 2009 and probably more than 60% since 1997 The Force Awakens should easily beat both?
If The Force Awakens was to open with $615m globally in 3 days it will still come short of Titanic. The biggest opening of a Star Wars film was Revenge of the Silth in 2005 with $108m having the biggest opening of the year; average ticket prices were $6.41 now $8.51 up 34%. Dropping 49% and then 55% in its second and third weekends taking 88% of its box office in the first 4 weeks is more than Jurassic World would see The Force Awakens after 4 weeks take about $600m could see it beating Titanic but will still be a long way from Avatar’s $760m.
The Force Awakens benefits from 4 weeks of IMAX and 3D sales on top of the 30% increase in ticket prices since those films were released anything less than taking over $3 billion would be seen as disappointing?
A few weeks ago Disney executives were trying to lower box office expectations for the film as everyone has been predicting for months it will beat Avatar. The hype machine will go into overdrive from next Friday with the launch of the toys. The problem for Disney is that the film could be fantastic as its own film but will always be compared with the original films.
