Top 5 Breakdown

1. Black Panther – £3,736,954 – £35,362,230

Down 45.55% in its third weekend normally the third weekend box office stabilises itself after a preview inflated opening weekend for a Marvel Cinematic Universe film with many dropping below 40% as word of month becomes the key factor for the films performance.

Despite strong word of mouth Black Panther had the tenth biggest third-weekend drop showing that the snowy weather impacted on its box office by about £400k for the weekend and £1m for the week. But Red Sparrow and Game Night were more affected as they were new releases.

After three weeks on release Black Panther has overtaken The Greatest Showman and will overtake Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle to become the biggest film Star Wars VIII The Last Jedi. Black Panther is also the biggest non-Avengers MCU film in the UK after 3 weeks both Avengers: Age of Ultron and Avengers Assemble had taken £40m+.

Black Panther is currently the sixth biggest MCU film in the UK and will overtake Captain America: Civil War and Iron Man 3 this weekend with a final box office of £43m+ now expected which will see Black Panther become the biggest solo MCU film in the UK.

Much of course has been made about its success being a surprise but the timing of Black Panther’s release was a key part of its success had it been part of the original ten Marvel Cinematic Universe films announced in 2005 as originally planned it wouldn’t have been half the success it has become.

But over the last ten years, the Marvel brand has grown with a loyal fanbase that will see all their films why all their films since 2016 (except for Doctor Strange) have taken over £30m at the box office. But the reason why Black Panther will take £5m+ more than Captain America: Civil War (the film launched Black Panther) is that the film has attracted many people who don’t do comic-book films close to why Star Wars: The Force Awakens took much more than Star Wars: The Last Jedi.

While Marvel and Disney are getting much praise for making Black Panther featuring the first non-white leading superhero (which of course isn’t correct as 20 years ago Blade was released) they are getting the credit for years of their rivals doing the doggy work making and releasing many films aimed at non-white audiences and featuring non-white males in the leading roles. Last year’s Hidden Figures and Wonder Woman are two of the many films that have helped create the success of Black Panther as does Kevin Hart.

Three years ago, Sony Pictures surprisingly heavily marketed The Wedding Ringer in the UK bringing Kevin Hart over to the UK normally studies wouldn’t put much effort in with thee kinds of films. While they performed strongly in the US they barely found an audience in the UK, but the Wedding Ringer opened #5 with £990,445 taking £2,119,244. Over the years since he has had success with Central Intelligence and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle both with Dwayne Johnson his next film Night School he stars with Tiffany Haddish who starred in Girls Trip opened with £1.55m taking £9.01m more than A Bad Moms Christmas and Rough Night.

With no major releases this weekend as was surprising Disney choose to delay A Wrinkle in Time two week in the UK as they open most films day and date (saying that only Avengers: Infinity War and Star Wars: Solo are this year with several opening ahead but most opening after US) Black Panther will hold #1 for a fourth weekend few comic-book movies have done so takin £2.1m but will lose #1 against Peter Rabbit the following weekend.

Avengers: Infinity War opens April 27^th next Disney brought forward its US release in the hope they can build on the success of Black Panther and have one of the biggest global openings.

2. Red Sparrow – £1,843,124 – NE

After taking only £0.17m from Thursday previews was badly affected by the snowy weather on Thursday its previews were less than half of Atomic Blonde £555.569 in August and 32% than last year’s John Wick: Chapter Two £248,415.

Red Sparrow opening was closer to last year’s Atomic Blonde opened August 2017 with £1.69m taking £3.56m rather than Salt opened August 2010 with £2.16m taking £6.73m, Lucy opened August 2014 with £3.07m taking £14.5m and Wanted opened June 2008 with £3.81m taking £9.58m.

When the first trailer of Red Sparrow was released last year, many thought it could have been the Black Widow film many have been expecting Marvel to of made over the last few years. Scarlett Johansson first appeared as Black Widow in Iron Man 2 in 2010. It’s rumoured that Black Widow film could finally come in 2020 showing again that while Marvel might be seen to be pioneers they see they have let their rivals do the hard work and then they come in for the glory and success.

To quote Ian Malcolm from Jurassic Park 25 years ago “If I may… Um, I’ll tell you the problem with the scientific power that you’re using here, it didn’t require any discipline to attain it. You read what others had done and you took the next step. You didn’t earn the knowledge for yourselves, so you don’t take any responsibility for it. You stood on the shoulders of geniuses to accomplish something as fast as you could, and before you even knew what you had, you patented it, and packaged it, and slapped it on a plastic lunchbox, and now [bangs on the table]

Same could be said for what Disney has done over the last twenty year buying ABC, Pixar, Marvel, Lucasfilm and now 20^th Century Fox they have brought their success close to Chelsea or Manchester City.  So, Disney and Marvel will be looking at Red Sparrow against their plans for a Black Widow film. Likewise, they waited to make their first solo female comic-book movie Captain Marvel until Warner Bros had made and released Wonder Woman.

Since the release of Mockingjay Part 2 in March 2015, the media circus around Jennifer Lawrence has overshadowed the films she has appeared in with Joy, Passengers, Mother! and now Red Sparrow all receiving huge media coverage but not translating into big box office.

After the disappointing performance of Mother! in September opening with £0. 82m and taking only £2.1m a return for her playing a strong independent woman in Red Sparrow would be a film her fans would much perfect to see her as she had similarly been in The Hunger Games films. Passengers opened December 2016 with £2.42m including £1.22m from previews.

After the recent scripted joke during the BAFTA awards two weeks ago Joanna Lumley which generated much reaction on social media. This was after Joanna Lumley her as “the hottest actress on the planet” and “ravishing” and Jennifer reacted by saying “that was a bit much” (if it wasn’t a joke it would have been a strange introduction by Joanna Lumley to Jennifer Lawrence with the current #MeToo campaign to call her out for being ravishing rather than the Oscar-winning actress she is). She has announced she won’t be making any more jokes she said “”I have a horrible, awful sense of humour that I’m just gonna cut it out”. But she has always had a great sense of humour.

Was also ‘outrage’ over her wearing a dress at the photocall last week while the men were wrapped up from the cold to consenting to the nudity in Red Sparrow ’empowered her after phone hacking’ after a hacker stole her private photos and released them on the internet in 2014.

The picture went viral on social media summing up too many what it is like to be a woman in Hollywood, but she reacted angrily on Facebook saying “Wow. I don’t really know where to get started on this “Jennifer Lawrence wearing a revealing dress in the cold” controversy. This is not only utterly ridiculous, I am extremely offended. That Versace dress was fabulous, you think I’m going to cover that gorgeous dress up with a coat and a scarf? I was outside for 5 minutes. I would have stood in the snow for that dress because I love fashion and that was my choice.

 This is sexist, this is ridiculous, this is not feminism. Overreacting to everything someone says or does, creating controversy over silly innocuous things such as what I choose to wear or not wear, is not moving us forward. It’s creating silly distractions from real issues. Get a grip, people. Everything you see me wear is my choice. And if I want to be cold THAT’S MY CHOICE TOO!

While also being honest about turning off Phantom Thread after three minutes while I’m sure many Academy members have probably voted for many films they haven’t seen and the outrage she had hearing about Harvey Weinstein (wanting to kill him when she heard of the sexual misconduct claims) saying “The way he destroyed so many women’s lives, I want to see him in jail,” Lawrence worked with Harvey Weinstein on her Oscar-winning film Silver Linings Playbook and was “never inappropriate” with her.

The disappointing performance of Red Sparrow will probably concern Paramount Pictures who will be releasing The Rhythm Section starring Blake Lively produced by Eon Productions and released by Paramount Pictures directed by Reed Morano previously directed episodes of The Handmaid’s Tale.

Over the last couple of years 20^th Century Fox have had strong success from original films targeting older audiences including The Martian, The Revenant, Hidden Figures, Logan, War for the Planet of the Apes, Murder on the Orient Express and The Greatest Showman and have Widows, Bohemian Rhapsody, Ad Astra, The Force and others upcoming hopefully Disney will still allow them to continue to make these films which were the kind of film Disney used to make with Touchstone Pictures before they got into the comic-book business. But would a Disney own Fox Searchlight allowed to make Oscar winners The Shape of Water and Three Billboards?

 

3. The Greatest Showman – £1,239,069 – £35,265,331  

Down 38.08% in its tenth weekend, this week will overtake Independence Day and Die Another Day to become 20^th Century Fox’s ninth biggest film in the UK.

Will almost certainly overtake Star Wars: Attack of the Clones, Deadpool, The Simpsons: Movie and Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith over the next few weeks to become their fifth biggest film in the UK will also see it overtake 2012’s Les Miserables.

The Greatest Showman suffered the biggest drop of its 10 weeks on release but still had the third biggest 10th-weekend box office after Titanic and Avatar for The Greatest Showman to even be compared to the box office performance of those two films highlights the incredible performance it has had. Pitch Perfect 3 was out of the top 10 after 5 weeks, Star Wars: The Last Jedi out after only 6 weeks and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle after 9 weeks while The Greatest Showman hasn’t dropped out of the top 5 after 10 weeks and taken more than £1m for 10 weeks.

With a final box office of about £41m, The Greatest Showman opening will be 15.92x opening far better than Titanic 14.29, Mamma Mia! 10.39x and Moulin Rouge 7.46x among many others. Its opening will be only 6.28% of its final box office which again is better than Titanic 7.01%, Mamma Mia! 9.68% and putting it into perspective Black Panther which has just overtaken it at the box office will be 21.82%.

Having recently been rejected again for another role that I wanted I thought I would finally go and see the film that I have talked about so much about for the reasons why it has been the success it has and the strong holdover even as the film was released by the company that rejected me again.

In January 2001 I had just arrived into 20^th Century Fox UK offices having just had a similar phone call rejecting me from a role that I had really wanted at Sony Pictures similarly felt low. They were screening for the first time Moulin Rouge and one of the bosses saw me and told me to come inside and watch it and I was totally blown away by the film.

While The Greatest Showman isn’t of course anywhere nearly as great as Moulin Rouge it does have a slightly happier ending as they both live happily ever after unlike Satine who (spoiler) dies of consumption in the arms of Christian.

As much as I was amazed about the positive critical reaction for La La Land was very surprised at the average reviews The Greatest Showman reviewed while far from a great film it has all the elements that make it a feel-good crowd-pleasing film. La La Land was very much a memberries film with so many dance sequences taken from classic Hollywood musicals which is why Hollywood and critics loved the film so much as it was taking them back to that moment in Hollywood history. 

When I first saw the trailer for The Greatest Showman reminded me of Moulin Rouge and then finally seeing it is exactly what it says on the tin doesn’t try to be anything it’s not as La La Land was trying to be. Even the start of the film felt similar to Moulin Rouge with the older 20th Century Fox logo switching to the modern logo with the booming soundtrack starting up immediately. Was similar to the start to Moulin Rouge while The Greatest Showman slowed down for a bit afterwards when you realised the opening song was a fantasy. 

Watching the film with an audience you can understand why it was the success it has become and why people keep coming back to watch it again while there are moments in the film that do drag the musical moments are what makes the film the fun feel-good movie it is as Mamma Mia! was 10 years ago. After all the doom and gloom on the news about Brexit it is the perfect antidote and showing what cinema is all about.

While it might not have won Best Song, the soundtrack is #1 in the UK for its eighth week the soundtrack has been streamed globally over 1 billion times as I said for months critical reaction had been so snotty being described as fake but while La La Land was a critical darling last year it was far more fake as it was seen to be an original musical but it was ‘inspired’ by many classical Hollywood musicals why The Greatest Showman never pretended to be anything it’s not.

20 years ago, films would play for more than three times the number of weeks current films play for, so openings were much smaller The Full Monty opened with £1.6m in August 1997 went on to take £51,992,765 opening with only 3.08% of final box office and taking 32.5x it’s opening. Four Weddings and a Funeral opened with £1.4m in May 1994 with only 5% of its final box office of £28m. While Jurassic Park opened with £4.9m in July 1993 and ran for almost a whole year in cinemas taking £46m compared Jurassic World opened with £19,350,727 in June 2015 taking £63,674,773 after 10 weeks.

The Greatest Showman could have easily gone the same way as 2012’s Rock of Ages which I really enjoyed and was surprised at the reaction it recieved. I’m sure after its opening in December against Pitch Perfect 3 and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle many at 20th Century Fox thought the same thing. But then it got a life of its own and people connected with the film’s soundtrack probably in the same way the first two Pitch perfect films did with audiences and TV series Glee. 

4. Game Night – £1,094,478 – NE

As with many films on release Game Night opening was probably affected by the snowy weather over the weekend opening lower than recent comedies Girls Trip £1.55m and A Bad Moms Christmas £1.78m.

After receiving positive reviews and being the only mainstream comedy on release would have expected Game Night to opened close to comedies like We’re The Millers opened August 2013 with £1,508,326 taking £8,077,006 and Date Night opened with £1,272,405 in April 2010 taking £3,795,016 while Horrible Bosses opened with £2,077,239 in July 2011 taking £9,919,137.

Instead, its opening was closer to John Francis Daley and Jonathan Goldstein the last film was 2015’s Vacation the National Lampoon’s reboot underwhelmed at the box office opened with £608,748 taking £1,356,880;

Comedies used to regularly perform well at the box office will any of the upcoming comedies do any better including I Feel Pretty, Life of the Party, Super Troopers 2 and Tag, 

5. Lady Bird – £926,935 – £2,623,540

Dropping 1.09% in its third weekend due to doubling its number of screens from 190 to 397 screens as it hoped to build on strong word of mouth and Oscars.

Many believe Lady Bird was snubbed at the Oscars but when I was watching the film I kept waiting to see why critics rave about the film. While the performances of Saoirse Ronan and Laurie Metcalf are strong was more the film was in the right place and right time as the film just like La La land the year before became a critical darling, but cinemagoers had much more mixed feelings about the films.

The hype Lady Bird received during the film festivals probably killed any chance of Patty Jenkins could have been nominated for Wonder Woman which is a far more impressive film.  Greta Gerwig has said that Lady Bird was inspired by many coming of age teen comedies from Pretty in Pink to Say Anything so as La La Land its originality wasn’t as it seems but that didn’t stop critics overhyping both. 

Will be interesting to see if Lady Bird becomes this year’s Juno was also a huge hit on the festival circuit after premiering at the Toronto Film Festival receiving critical acclaim and four Oscar nominations winning Best Original Screenplay; opened in February 2007 with £2,002,120 taking £9,240,584 but in the years since has been overrated.

At the Golden Globes, Natalie Portman introduced the all-male nominees for Best Director and it received a positive reaction but when Emma Stone did similar at the Oscars it wasn’t received as positively. She said, “It is the director whose indelible touch is reflected on every frame,” Stone said. “It is the director who, shot by shot, scene by scene, day by day, works with every member of the crew to further the story.” Then the controversial part: “These four men, and Greta Gerwig, created their own masterpieces this year.”

Emma Stone was also trolled by her friend Jennifer Lawrence after Jimmy Kimmel had said This year, when you hear your name called, don’t get up right away. Just give us a minute. We don’t want another thing,” Which saw Jennifer point to Emma laughing. After winning Best Actress last year for La La Land she was overlooked this year for Battle of the Sexes and a far better performance.

Saoirse Ronan next stars in Mary Queen of Scots the third part of the Elizabeth the extended universe after Elizabeth and Elizabeth: The Golden Age starring alongside her fellow Best Actress nominee Margot Robbie will be a favourite for BAFTAs and Oscars nominations next year. 

Also released

Monster Family – Sky Cinema – £126,235 from 132 sites

It was the first film Sky Cinema screened in cinemas same time at on Sky Cinema but was predictably major exhibitors didn’t book the film.

There are over 65m+ people living in the UK only 12m have Sky many of those don’t subscribe to Sky Cinema so major exhibitors are cutting off their nose to spite the face not booking films like Monster Family and Annihilation as is an audience who want to see these films in cinemas alongside streaming.

UK box office in detail

This weekend’s top 10 box office took £11,400,043 down 27.5% from last weekend £15,741,381

The weekend admissions 1,522,035 down 27.5% from last weekend 2,101,653; despite 3% inflation in the UK in 2017 UK Cinema Association/BFI are claiming average ticket prices in 2017 was up only 1% to £7.49; in the US inflation for 2017 was only 2% but their average price increased by 3.6%.

10 films opened at weekend taking £3,755,687; Red Sparrow took 49.07% (£1,843,124); Game Night took 29.1% (£1,094,478); remaining 8 films shared 21.7% (£818,085): Black Panther took 32.7% of the top 10 box office.

The weekend was down 29.4% from last year (£16,157,614): Logan £9,443,363, Viceroy’s House £921,309, Fist Fight £400,112, 

Up 22.1% from 2016: (£9,333,112): London Has Fallen £3,229,675, Hail, Caesar! £1,520,788, Manon Lescaut – Met Opera 2016 (Opera) £279,586, The Other Side of the Door £262,955, The Choice £139,669, Truth £26,701

Next weekend in 2017: (£13,776,935) Kong: Skull Island £6,230,997, La Traviata – Met Opera 2017 (Opera) £323,284, Elle £253,619

February box office was up 2% from last year and the first two months are up only 1% from last year which had a very strong start to the year (£209m approx.) with La La Land, Sing, The Lego Batman Movie and Fifty Shades Darker all taking over £20m and Lion, Split and Trainspotting 2 all taking over £10m.  The first two months have taken about £200m (with over £45m+ from Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and The Greatest Showman) but only two of 2018 releases have taken over £20m at the box office Darkest Hour and Black Panther. Highlighting the fact while box office might be slightly up it doesn’t tell the whole story as cinemagoers are seeing fewer films.

 

UK Box Office Top 10

 

US Box Office Top 10

US Box office

• Disney – Black Panther

Down 41.2% in its third weekend to $66.3m and $501.1m total; currently the biggest Marvel Cinematic Universe films after three weeks

Having the biggest third weekend of MCU in the US 2012’s Avengers was $55.64m and 2015’s Avengers: Age of Ultron $38.85m again showing Black Panther is playing beyond comic-book audiences which was always expected to give the media coverage it has received becoming a cultural phenomenon.

Black Panther has become the 10^th biggest film of all time in the US Disney have 6 of the biggest 10 films in the US all of which have been released over the last 6 years all either Star Wars, Marvel or reimaginations with Avatar and Titanic the two original films in the top 10.

Black Panther had the third biggest third weekend behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens $90.24m and Avatar $68.49m and is expected to do similarly in its fourth weekend which could see it hold #1 against A Wrinkle in Time.

Took $56.2m and $396.6m internationally and $897.7m worldwide currently #47 biggest film globally and fifth biggest Marvel Cinematic Universe film (overtaking Guardians of the Galaxy, Thor: Ragnarok, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Spider-Man: Homecoming and will become the biggest non-Avengers film globally. Black Panther opens in China this weekend where it is expected to take $100m+ close to Spider-Man: Homecoming; will likely become the biggest non-Avengers film globally taking $1.2bn+.

• 20^th Century Fox – Red Sparrow

Opened with $16.85m; Received B CinemaScore and only 50% Rotten Tomatoes score.

Ahead of the release, it was tracking to open with $25m+ but that dropped to $20m ahead of its opening as the continued strong holding of Black Panther squeezed its box office.

Opened slightly less than last year’s Atomic Blonde opened July 2017 with $18.28m taking $51.68m and Ghost in the Shell opened March 2017 with $18.67m taking $40.56m.

Lucy opened July 2014 with $43.89m taking $126.66m

Hanna opened April 2011 with $12.37m taking $40.25m

Salt opened July 2010 with $36.01m taking $118.31m

20th Century Fox has had strong success in recent years making films for older audiences the casting of Jennifer Lawrence in this thriller seemed to be the perfect step up from The Hunger Games franchise as she played again a strong powerful independent woman far from the character she played previously in Mother! 

While Disney is going after the younger audience with their franchises rather than trying to compete directly 20^th Century Fox have been targeting the older adult demographic having had strong success in recent years with films including Logan, Deadpool and Gone Girl.

Took $26.5m internationally.

• Warner Bros – Game Night

Down 38.8% in its second weekend taking $10.41m and $33.24m.

Comedies have underperformed in recent years even good enjoyable comedies like Game Night which should have performed better than it is doing. Instead of holding similar to films like How to Be Single ($46.8m) and Snatched ($445.8m) rather than Date Night taking $98.71m and Horrible Bosses taking $117.53m.

With all the gloom and doom headlines its surprising comedies aren’t doing better than they are or is it another genre that people are preferring to watch on the small screen preferring their humour now much darker with Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and I, Tonya;

It took $8.5m from 46 territories $16.3m total.

• Sony Pictures – Peter Rabbit

Down 21.6% in its fourth weekend taking $10m and $84.04m total;

Peter Rabbit is ahead of last years, The Emoji Movie which took $4.44m in its fourth weekend and $71.85m and Goosebumps taking $6.8m and $66.27m; The Angry Birds Movie took $6.55m and $98.02m taking $107.5m;  

Peter Rabbit has opened in a few international territories taking $17.9m to date opening in many key territories over the next few weeks ahead of Easter. Despite poor reviews is expected to perform well international being based on the Beatrix Potter’s classic and perfect to keep young children entertained for a couple of hours while adults will find those two hours feel like days.

• MGM – Death Wish

Opens with $13.01m; receiving B+ CinemaScore and only 14% Rotten Tomatoes score.

30 years ago Bruce Willis starred in Die Hard and then two years later in its sequel but his career has been littered with failures The Bonfire of the Vanities, Hudson Hawk, Billy Bathgate, North and Color of Night but then had comeback with Pulp Fiction and 12 Monkeys, Armageddon, The Sixth Sense and Unbreakable but has had little success since apart from Die Hard 4 with A Good Day to Die Hard a disappointment have been rumours of a Die Hard 6 for the last few years. 

• Paramount Pictures – Annihilation

Down 49% in its second weekend taking $5.65m and $20.63m; will overtake the total box office of Alex Garland’s directorial debut 2015’s Ex Machina taking $25.44m.

Was much “outrage” over Netflix acquiring the film internationally but Paramount Pictures only sold it to them as they felt it would be a hard sell to audiences rather than being “outraged” they should have gone to see it in the cinema. This is why Netflix will be acquiring many more of these kinds mid-budget films as they are being squeezed at the box office even films like Game Night has done so.

Annihilation will be released on March 12^th internationally so likely lose many of its screens this weekend.

• Sony Pictures – Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Down 20.4% in its eleventh weekend taking $4.43m and $393.13m;

It is 30^th biggest film in the US overtaking Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and will shortly overtake, Frozen, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, Jurassic Park and Spider-Man which will see it become Sony Pictures biggest film in the US taking over $403.7m. 

Jumanji took $535.7m internationally and $929m worldwide; Jumanji is now the #44 biggest film globally having overtaken The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers and will likely overtake Finding Nemo, The Jungle Book and The Lion King when it opens in Japan next month.

• 20th Century Fox – The Greatest Showman

Dropped 20.8% in its eleventh weekend taking $2.7m and $164.6m;

It is now the fourth biggest musical film in the US and the biggest original musical in the US and getting ever closer to overtaking Chicago taking a final box office of $175m+ before its home video release later this month.

It is #284 biggest film in the US overtaking Straight Outta Compton, The Pursuit of Happyness and will overtake Fifty Shades of Grey, Meet the Parents, Gone Girl over the next week getting close to overtaking last year’s Christmas surprise hit Hidden Figures; it is 20^th Century Fox’s 42^nd biggest film in the US and will likely overtake Gone Girl and Hidden Figures and even The Boss Baby over the next few weeks. 

The Greatest Showman took 50% more in its tenth weekend than La La Land in its tenth week on wide release (14^th overall) taking 8% more $148.44m Vs $160.96m; This Is Me is expected to win Best Song at the Oscars next weekend.

The Greatest Showman took $5.3m over the weekend and $201.2m internationally taking over $375.9m worldwide. (holding strong in Australia and Japan) Has become the 286^th biggest film ever overtaking Gone Girl and There’s Something About Mary and has become 20^th Century Fox’s 50^th biggest film globally.

Oscar nominees 

• 20^th Century Fox – The Post – down 124 screens – down 24.4% – $80.39m
• Fox Searchlight – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri up 79 screens – up 1.56% – $52.04m
• Neon – I. Tonya up 88 screens – down 5.2% – $28.94m
• Focus Features – Darkest Hours – up 118 screens – down 6.6% – $55.55m
• Focus Features – Phantom Thread – up 64 screens – down 36.74% – $20.16m
• A24 – Lady Bird – up 109 screens – down 15.1% -$48.32m
• Sony Pictures Classics – Call Me By Your Name – up 239 screens – up 49.7% – $16.9m
• Fox Searchlight – The Shape of Water up 111 screens – up 23.8% – $57.45m (it is now the biggest Best Film since 2011 highlights the massive divide between Academy 8,000 private club members most of whom never watch the films in cinemas and the 1+ billion cinemagoers who pay their wages this divide has grown over the last 20 years since Titanic).

Opening UK

UK Box Office Predictions

Black Panther will hold #1 for a fourth weekend taking £2.1m+ with new releases Walk Like A Panther and Gringo likely to open between £500-£800k.

With Red Sparrow likely to drop about 50% in its second weekend could see The Greatest Showman move back to #2 over a quiet weekend which is probably going to be the lowest weekend since early December last year. Which does question the decision by Disney to hold back A Wrinkle of Time by two weeks in the UK?

With Oscar winners, The Shape of Water and Three Billboards likely to have a small boost 20^th Century Fox could have five films in the top 10 and incredibly all original films.

In two weeks’ time, Peter Rabbit and Tomb Raider open and then A Wrinkle in Time and Ready Player One (early buzz has been very positive) over the following two weeks in time for Easter. 

Opening March 9^th

Opening UK

• Gringo – STX

Action comedy starring David Oyelowo, Charlize Theron, Joel Edgerton, Amanda Seyfried, Thandie Newton and Sharlto Copley and directed by Nash Edgerton.

Other drug action comedies include 2008’s Pineapple Express, 1998’s The Big Lebowski and Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels and more recently 2011’s Limitless and last years American Made.

Unlikely to make much impact at the box office despite opening over a quiet weekend

• Walk Like A Panther – 20^th Century Fox

British comedy about a group of wrestlers who put their lycra on for one last time to save a pub starring Jill Halfpenny, Sue Johnston, Lindsey Coulson, Julian Sands, Jason Flemyng, Stephen Tompkinson and Michael Socha directed by Dan Cadan was originally conceived as a TV comedy in 2011.

As Finding Your Feet opening two weeks ago Walk Like the Panther with its North England setting will of course want to be compared to films like The Full Monty, Calendar Girls and Brassed Off featuring a group of men/woman who come together to save themselves or job/pub. Rather than trying to be something similar what made those films special was that they were different but the problem is filmmakers have tried but failed to repeat that formula so many times since.

Walk Like the Panther is the first of two wrestling comedies released this year the other Fighting with My Family is based on 2012 Channel 4 TV documentary Dwayne Johnson somehow saw and thought would make a good film. It stars Florence Pugh, Lena Headey, Nick Frost, Vince Vaughn and Dwayne Johnson and directed by Stephen Merchant.

Opening over a quiet weekend might find an small audience but its home will be the small screen like the TV show it was based on.

• Wonder Wheel – Warner Bros

Drama starring Kate Winslet, Jim Belushi, Juno Temple, and Justin Timberlake and written and directed by Woody Allen; received mixed reviews from critics.

Over the months after the sexual abuse allegations against Harvey Weinstein many other actors have also received allegations which brought to light again the allegations from Dylan Farrow that Woody Allen abused him as a child in an article he wrote in December in the LA Times. Investigators at the time concluded that he hadn’t been abused but that hasn’t stopped them cloud his career over the years since with actors

The resurfacing of these allegations saw many actors who had previously worked with Woody Allen say they wouldn’t work with him in future. While of course made the film flop at the US box office.

Warner Bros have been releasing Woody Allen films in the UK since 2009’s Whatever Works having mixed success his biggest being 2013’s Blue Jasmine with £833,798 and 2011’s Midnight in Paris opening with £495,709. His last films haven’t done Magic in the Moonlight as well opened with £270,000 in 2014, Irrational Man with £197,188 in 2015 and Café Society in 2016 with £494,457.

A Rainy Day in New York is Woody Allen’s 2018 project but after the backlash surrounding Wonder Wheel are questions over the release of the film and Amazon’s future involvement with his films.

• You Were Never Really Here – Studiocanal

Thriller starring Joaquin Phoenix, Ekaterina Samsonov, Alex Manette, John Doman, and Judith Roberts and written and directed by Lynne Ramsay based on the novel by Jonathan Ames; the unfinished version of the film premiered at the Cannes Film Festival in competition receiving a seven-minute standing ovation and winning Lynne Ramsay the Best Screenplay award and Joaquin Phoenix Best Actor.

The film has an 88% Rotten Tomatoes score and received rave reviews after receiving its UK premiere at the London Film Festival in October. But was then strangely dated for March close to Ben Wheatley’s Free Fire last year after also premiering at the London Film Festival and receiving positive reviews.

Would of thought Studiocanal would have learnt their lesson after Free Fire underwhelmed at the box office after opening 5 months after premiering at the LFF with only £480,644 and taking only £1,004,795. Especially as Three Billboards has since overshadowed the film had it opened soon after its London Film Festival premiere after its strong buzz from Cannes it could have held its own.

Studiocanal could have been forced to delay its release due to A24 releasing in the US (but did open in France in November) who already had The Florida Project, Lady Bird, The Disaster Artist and The Killing of a Sacred Deer dated for October to December.  

It is Lynne Ramsay’s first film since We Need to Talk About Kevin opened in October 2011 with £492,297 from 111 screens taking £2,157,401; she was attached to direct the western Jane Got a Gun in 2013 but was replaced by Gavin O’Connor.

With strong reviews had it not been for Three Billboards Oscars success would of expected it to open similar to We Need to Talk About Kevin but after the Oscars Three Billboards will likely get a slight boost which will squeeze its box office.

Opening in US

• A Wrinkle In Time – Disney

Sci-fi fantasy adventure starring Oprah Winfrey, Reese Witherspoon, Mindy Kaling, Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Michael Peña, Storm Reid, Zach Galifianakis, and Chris Pine and directed by Ava DuVernay based on the 1962 novel by Madeleine L’Engle.

Most surprising thing about A Wrinkle in Time is that it’s not the original Disney movie many believe it is as previously made in 2002 planned as a two-part miniseries but was postponed a year and cut into a 128min TV movie.

Disney acquired remake rights in 2010 and Ava DuVernay was confirmed to direct in February 2016; teaser was released in July and trailer released in November has been viewed 8.5m times on YouTube.

Ava DuVernay was originally attached to direct Black Panther but left in 2015 after developing the film for some time but due to “creative differences” she left the film and moved on to adapt A Wrinkle in Time for Disney.

A Wrinkle in Time was tracking to open with $30m+ a few weeks ago and many expected that being trailed with Black Panther would boost its box office chances but after mixed reaction to premiere and the embargo for the film is surprisingly only one day before opening as Valerian, The Mummy, and King Arthur compared to 10 days for Black Panther and guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 as the film is based on 1962 novel by Madeleine L’Engle it can’t be for spoilers. While much has been made about the film being the first $100m+ budget film directed by an African American director and its strong racial cast the trailers have had mixed reaction.

A Wrinkle in Time must be Disney’ riskiest project since 2015’s Tomorrowland while based on a best-selling novel featuring a very strong ensemble cast and Ava DuVernay directing the $100m+ budget film will be compared to Patty Jenkins who directed $150m budgeted Wonder Woman.

As with Patty Jenkins A Wrinkle in Time will be Ava DuVernay second film directed going from low budget Selma to $100m+ budget but of course male directors do this regularly going from indie to $200m budgeted films.  If it fails to meet expectations failure will be on her shoulders likely to go MIA for years as Michael Lehmann after Hudson Hawk and Martin Brest after Gigli but of course it is a success ill hopefully see many more female directors signed up to direct more tentpole releases.

Disney original films are such a rarity now, so I really wanted to like the first trailer for A Wrinkle in Time but found it a mess remaining me of Oz: The Great and Powerful.  While Disney have had huge success from their franchise their original films have disappointed at the box office The Lone Ranger, John Carter and Tomorrowland and its likely A Wrinkle in Time will be similar putting another nail in the coffin for original films at Disney that is until they swallow up 20^th Century Fox next year.

The film received its world premiere on 26th February and reaction was average at best and as this was the premiere regular critical reaction will likely be much worse. Many described the novel unfilmable as were Life of Pi, Where the Wild Things Are, Lord of the Rings but became great films but many more like Cloud Atlas, Dune and Breakfast of Champions weren’t while many others never get past development stage.

Disney used to be innovators making unique original films but rarely do now with their recent original films John Carter, Tomorrowland and now A Wrinkle In Time. It’s no surprise they want to buy 20th Century Fox who have had much success in recent years making the types of films Disney used to make before they moved into the properties making business buying success with purchasing Pixar, Marvel and Lucasfilm.

But when a woman does similar as Patty Jenkins having only made a low budget film before Wonder Woman she was criticised. Since Wonder Woman’s success Disney have signed Niki Caro to direct their live action reimagination of Mulan, Anna Boden and Ryan Fleck will direct Captain Marvel and Jennifer Lee will direct Frozen 2.

• Gringo – STX

The drug action comedy is unlikely to generate much interest at the box office expected to open under $10m. As with Den of Thieves released in January Gringo looks like a film released twenty years too late which would be better off on Netflix instead of having a theatrical release. 

 

• The Leisure Seeker – Sony Classics

Comedy-drama starring Donald Sutherland and Helen Mirren and directed by Paolo Virzì based on the 2009 novel of the same name by Michael Zadoorian; premiered at the Venice Film Festival receiving mixed reviews.

 

• Thoroughbreds – Focus Features

Drama thriller starring Olivia Cooke, Anya Taylor-Joy, Anton Yelchin, Paul Sparks, and Francie Swift written and directed by Cory Finley; it’s the final film role of Anton Yelchin who died in June 2016; received the world premiere at the Sundance Film Festival in 2017 and was acquired by Focus Features. Has received 85% Rotten Tomatoes score.