1. Downtown Abbey – £2,682,080 – £19,379,606

Down 18.24% in its third weekend; the cooler wetter weather over the weekend helped Downton Abbey and all other films hold strongly this weekend. After three weeks of no competition Downton Abbey faces competition this weekend from Judy Garland biopic Judy.

42^nd biggest third weekend in the UK between Slumdog Millionaire and Arthur Christmas and close to last years A Star Is Born (£2,883,000) taking 30% more.

Downton Abbey has taken 5.8% more than 2011’s The King’s Speech after three weeks, but The King’s Speech took 57.5% more (£4,226,074) than Downton Abbey in its third weekend, while both films might be British period dramas, they are very different films The King’s Speech was the must see award contender of the year; the King’s Speech took 13x opening while Downton Abbey will be closer to 6x opening similar to Love Actually and Mary Poppins Returns.

13^th biggest film of 2019 in the UK after (Avengers: Endgame; The Lion King; Toy Story 4; Captain Marvel; Aladdin; Spider-Man Far From Home; Dumbo; Rocketman; Once Upon A Time In Hollywood; Fast & Furious: Hobbs & Shaw; How to Train Your Dragon 3; The Secret Life of Pets 2) and by the weekend will be Universal Pictures biggest film of 2019 in the UK the 11^th film to take over £20m+ and the 9^th biggest film of 2019.

257^th biggest film in the UK between Solo: A Star Wars Story and Maleficent (close to 12 Years a Slave, Shakespeare in Love, Saving Private Ryan and War Horse) and 366^th biggest inflation inflated between The Smurfs and War for the Planet of the Apes (close to Nanny McPhee & the Big Bang, Marley & Me, Bend It Like Beckham and Black Swan) and will shortly become the 248^th film to take over £20m.

Universal Pictures UK 31st biggest film between Kung Fu Panda and How to Train Your Dragon 3 (close to The Theory of Everything, Johnny English Reborn, Fifty Shades Freed and Captain Phillips) and 35^th biggest inflation inflated between Nanny McPhee & the Big Bang and How to Train Your Dragon 3.

Downton Abbey has overtaken total box office of 2001’s Gosford Park (£12.3m) Downton Abbey was originally conceived as a spinoff of Gosford Park but was set several decades later, also overtaking   2007’s Atonement (£12.4m), 1996’s Sense and Sensibility (£13.6m) and 2005’s Pride & Prejudice (£14.6m).

Feel-good British/grey pound film will often hold strongly over weeks after opening as older audiences don’t rush out to see the films over opening weekend as younger audiences and are much more affected with word of mouth.

2012’s The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel dropped 24% taking £1,787,352 and £10,855,596 53.4% of £20,308,480 total

2017’s Murder on the Orient Express dropped 48% taking £2,279,200 and £17,753,371 74.3% of £23,900,453

2016’s Bridget Jones’s Baby dropped 25.5% taking £4,807,165 and £31,350,360 65.1% of £48,150,737

2013’s Philomena dropped 29% taking £1,006,356 and £7,298,426 69.7% of £10,470,225

2006’s The Queen dropped 12% £803,371 taking £4,314,538 45.9% of £9,381,693

2003’s Calendar Girls dropped 5% £1,761,985 taking £9,493,214 47.1% of £20,174,133

September has been a strong date to open British based films including

2017 Victoria and Abdul taking £9,434,937; 2016 – Bridget Jones’s Baby taking £48,150,737

2015 Legend taking £18,202,111; 2011- Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy taking £14,133,500

2006 – The Queen taking £9,381,693; 2003 Calendar Girls taking £20,174,133

7.6m watched the first episode of the first series in 2010 on ITV, 9m watched the first episodes of season two and season three, 9.2m watched first episode of series 4 and 8.4m watch first episode of series 5. The final episode of Downtown Abbey was broadcast on ITV1 on Christmas Day 2015 with an audience of 6.9m with another 4m watching on catchup with a total of 10.9m. Was the most watched TV programme on Christmas Day, the first time ITV had managed to do so  in 15 years.

Since the final episode was broadcast on ITV on Christmas Day 2015 had been rumours of a spinoff film, in July 2018 it was announced a film would be made and Universal Pictures would release the film worldwide.

Downton Abbey should take £30m+ and will be the second non-Disney film to do so this year after Spider-Man Far From Home and Universal Pictures surely announcing shortly a sequel/spinoff extended universe?

2. Ad Astra – £1,284,924   – £4,512,420

Dropped 43.3% in its second weekend

Had the 638^th biggest second weekend in the UK between Drag Me to Hell and Ocean’s Eight (close to Valkyrie, Inferno, Inglourious Basterds and Fury) and 821^st biggest inflation inflated second weekend between Knowing and Ocean’s Eight (close to The Devil’s Advocate, Star Trek X: Nemesis, 28 Weeks Later and The Equalizer 2).

Had the 26^th biggest second weekend of 2019 between Alita: Battle Angel and Angel Has Fallen 20^th Century Fox’s 110^th biggest second weekend between Valkyrie and Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader (close to The Grand Budapest Hotel, The A-Team, The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen  and The X-Files).

Of the recent grown up sci-fi films released in the autumn over the last 6 years Ad Astra is holding close to Arrival and First Man taking about 65% of its total box office which will see Ad Astra taking £6.5m+ less than both First Man and Arrival.

Second weekends

2016’s Arrival £1,496,205 48.8% drop £5,782,996 64.3% of £8,994,774

2018’s First Man £1,324,867 45.1% drop £5,115,235 69.5% of £7,360,906

2013’s Gravity £4,838,152 22.4% drop £14,711,488 45% of £32,692,161

2014’s Interstellar £3,777,804 29.7% drop £12,131,990 60.4% of £20,066,636

2015’s The Martian £3,854,809 40.9% drop £13,211,096 56.1% of £23,578,878

2017’s Blade Runner 2049 £3,098,872 48.9% drop £12,184,828 64.7% of £18,820,009

Ad Astra was always likely to struggle at the box office despite critical acclaim after having world premiere at the Venice Film Festival in August as the film was slotted into an already crowded September when it was delayed from May. Saying that Ad Astra would have suffered a much worse fate had the art-house sci-fi film opened in May.

20th Century Fox had strong success over recent years targetting older audiences so would  have hoped had similar success with Ad Astra, but it was always going to be a hard sell despite cinemagoers always saying they want to see more original films.

Brad Pitt said in an interview it’s a mistake to judge a films success by its box office opening “Well, for the financiers, whether it be studio or independent, that will be monetary. And most of our films, which I feel is a mistake, get defined by the opening weekend. They’ll say it’s a hit or it’s a miss. But all of my favourite films, I found them well after the fact.” …. “I guess that doesn’t answer my fiduciary responsibility. But it does! Actually I disagree with that. Because I’m looking at the film: Does it have anything to say in 10 years or 20 years? Could it still have legs? Could it still be around? History is rife with films that we love today that were abysmal ‘bombs’ on their opening weekend. And we find them later, or we catch up with them.”

The industry gets caught up with films breaking box office records, but the longevity of the films are much more important as so many of the films that take $1bn are quickly forgotten and watchable once and don’t live in the memory as they are all hype no sustenance. I know its crazy me saying this after all I write about box office but the only people that should worry about box office figures are the studio accountants.

20^th Century Fox remaining films for 2019 Terminator: Dark Fate, Le Mans ’66, Lucy In The Sky and Spies In Disguise

3. Hustlers – £1,011,943  –  £5,032,933

Down 4.2% in its third weekend; holding strongly in its third weekend due to strong word of mouth, limited competition and wet weather.

Hustlers will shortly overtake last years I Feel Pretty (£5,384,881) to become STX biggest film in the UK.

One film can make or break an independent distributors year, Hustlers has taken almost 60% of their 2019 box office (£8.8m). This has been similarly the case with most distributors this year, with this year Fisherman’s Friends taking 67% of Entertainment Films 2019 box office; Stan & Ollie and Green Book taking 50%+ of eOne; John Wick: Chapter Three taking 30% of Lionsgate; Rocketman taking 45% of Paramount Pictures; Spider-Man Far From Home taking 50% of Sony Pictures; Upcoming Shaun The Sheep Movie 2 will do the same for Studiocanal. Its only Disney, Universal Pictures and Warner Bros who have a more evenly split over several films.

An independent distributor needs to find its identity a genre of films they have success with, the problem with STX is while they had success with horror, action and comedy, they moved into other genres which they are competing directly with the majors where they had trouble. Hustlers has a strong female empowerment story, with strong cast telling a story about women for women, which is why It was able to find an audience.

In 2016 STX launched their international division acquiring international rights to Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman for $50m now three years later the film has received critical acclaim but will have a limited theatrical release next month before being released on Netflix. We will of course never know what might of happened had STX kept international rights,

Variety speculated last week that the film could of taken $150m+ worldwide but its 29 years ago since Good Fellas was released taking $47m in the US, but the marketplace has changed dramatically since would a gangster film be as successful now in such a competitive market.

While for STX it would have been a massive gamble and over the years when few gambles by independent distributors have paid off, most famously in the mid 90s First Independent Films acquired UK rights to two Ridley Scott films G.I Jane and White Squall to announce the distributors return but both films flopped which saw the distributor shut soon afterwards.

4. Ready Or Not  – £947,958  – NE

Took £249,530 from previews Wednesday/Thursday

Art-house horror have had mixed success at the box office with films including 2013’s Stoker opened £367,509; 2015’s Crimson Peak opened £967,168; 2016’s The Witch opened £447,781; 2018’s Suspiria opened £166,257.

The film received positive reviews 88% Rotten Tomatoes taking $28.5m in the US and $47.9m worldwide; had its UK premiere at FrightFest in August

5. It Chapter 2 – £940,513  – £17,751,246  

Down 32.2% in its fourth weekend

Having a similar decline as IT Chapter One in its fourth weekend despite the release of horror Ready Or Not; It Chapter Two took almost 50% less than It Chapter One in its fourth weekend £1,742,629 and 40% less than its total £29,444,212 91% of £32,340,000 total; If It Chapter 2 holds similar to It Chapter One will come slightly short of £20m.

It Chapter 2 will overtake The Lego Movie 2 to become Warner Bros biggest film in the UK this year.

It’s interesting to see how four Warner Bros films have taken similar box office this year (The Lego Movie 2, It Chapter 2, Detective Pikachu and Shazam). The same is true with Disney (Avengers: Endgame, The Lion King, Toy Story 4, Captain Marvel and Aladdin) with Spider-Man Far From Home between Dumbo. (as Spider-Man Far From Home is part of the MCU many would see it as a Disney film). While Universal has Fast & Furious: Hobbs & Shaw, How to Train Your Dragon 3, The Secret Life of Pets 2, Downton Abbey and Yesterday, while eOne has Stan & Ollie and Green Book and Paramount Dora and the Lost City of Gold, Wonder Park and Pet Sematary.

While it makes sense that Disney’s films have taken similar box office as they are targetting similar demographics, it’s much harder to see the connection with the other films and why their box office would be similar to others released by the same distributor.  This was similar the case in 2015 which saw Universal Pictures have success after success with Fifty Shades of Grey, Furious 7, Pitch Perfect 2, Jurassic World, Minions and Straight Outta Compton) it can’t have been due to trailers as unlikely those films would share similar trailers as their demographics are very different.

Has become the 15th biggest film of 2019 between The Lego Movie: The Second Part and Yesterday

333rd biggest film in the UK between Kung Fu Panda 2 and X-Men Origins: Wolverine and 457th biggest inflation inflated between Sleepy Hollow and The Emperor’s New Groove (close to Waterworld, Trainspotting 2, The Village and World War Z).

54th biggest Warner Bros film between Scooby-Doo Too and Ready Player One (close to The Bodyguard, The Matrix, Batman and Robin and 300) and 69th biggest inflation inflated between The Final Destination and Ready Player One (close to Justice League, Mad Max: Fury Road, the Perfect Storm and Demolition Man).

2019 has been a very disappointing year for Warner Bros with It Chapter Two already their second biggest film of the year after The Lego Movie 2 (£18.6m) also took about 30% less than the first film).

Warner Bros will be hoping after all the critical acclaim and strong buzz Joker has generated at Venice and Toronto Film Festivals and The Shining sequel Doctor Sleep opening Halloween/Brexit day.

Warner Bros will be hoping for a better 2020 but have a much stronger slate as do all of Disney rivals who seemed to of waved the white flag this year as none of their rivals have managed to get close to Disney this year.

UK box office in detail

This weekend’s top 10 box office took £9,120,747 down 13.8% from last weekend £10,591,748

The weekend admissions 1,175,669 down 16.4% from last weekend 1,410,353; average ticket £7.51 up 5% from last year’s £7.22 and Applaudience estimate ticket price of £10.28

12 films opened at weekend taking (£1,470,151); Ready Or Not 64.5% (£947,958); The Goldfinch 21.8% (£320,849); remaining 10 films shared 13.6% (£201,344);

Top three took 54.6% (£4,978,947) of the top 10; Downtown Abbey 29.4% (£2,682,080);  Ad Astra `14.1% (£1,284,924); Hustlers 11.1% (£1,011,943);

Up 22.1% from 2018: (£7,469,063); Night School (£1,596,378); The Wife (£392,635); #1 Night School £1,596,378 1st week 452 screens (21.35% of top 10)

Down 26.6% from 2017: (£9,737,689); Goodbye Christopher Robin (£781,110); Flatliners (£486,721); Home Again (£484,124); #1 Kingsman: The Golden Circle £4,187,105 2^nd week 620 down 51% (42.9% of the top 10)

Down 6.3% from 2016: (£11,647,518); The Magnificent Seven (£2,132,609); The Girl with All the Gifts (£432,529); The Rolling Stones: Havana Moon (£56,666); #1 Bridget Jones’s Baby £6,453,799 2^nd week 648 screens 20% drop (55.4% of the top 10)

Up 27.7% from 2015; (£7,140,352); Miss You Already (£487,247); Solace (£340,537); Captive (£52,227); Life (£38,237); 99 Homes (£38,078); McFarland (£12,773); #1 Everest £1,996,439 2^nd week 1^st #1 598 screens 37% drop (27.9% of top 10)

Up 13.6% from 2014: (£8,023,248); Billy Elliot The Musical Live 2014 (£1,904,098); The Equalizer (£1,890,146); What We Did on our Holiday (£811,087); Maps to the Stars (£131,057); I Origins (£14,953); #1 Billy Elliot The Musical Live 2014 £1,904,098 1^st week 509 screens (33% drop (26.6% of top 10)

Up 41.8% from 2013: (£6,429,080); Prisoners (£1,365,527); Blue Jasmine (£833,798); Runner Runner (£764,886); Filth (£247,860); The Wicker Man (Re: 2013) (£14,817); Girl Most Likely (£90,810); Austenland (£12,384); #1 Prisoners £1,365,527 1^st week 400 screens (21.2% of top 10)

Up 19.3% from 2012 (£7,641,350); Looper (£2,427,994); Resident Evil: Retribution (£792,265); The Campaign (£772,102); Holy Motors (£66,087); #1 Looper £2,427,994 1^st week 449 screens 12% drop (31.7% of top 10)

Up 75.4% from 2011 (£5,198,264); Abduction (£900,782); The Phantom of the Opera (25th Anniversary Concert) (£550,955); The Debt (£417,977); Shark Night 3D (£416,770); What’s Your Number? (£320,331); Melancholia (£132,437); Red State (£105,753); #1 Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy £1,064,901 3^rd week 465 screens 49% drop (20.4% of top 10)

Up 37.9% from 2010: (£6,612,218); Eat Pray Love (£1,165,234); The Town (£1,005,039); 3-D The Hole (£906,722); #1 The Other Guys £1,292,144 2^nd week 444 screens 35% drop (19.5% of top 10)

Up 30.1% from 2009; (£7,010,262); Fame (£2,408,242); Surrogates (£961,271); The Soloist (£373,151); Creation (£199,477); The Crimson Wing (£746);#1 Fame £2,408,242 1^st week 459 screens (34.3% of top 10)

Up 44.7% from 2008; (£6,302,076); Taken (£1,165,986); Righteous Kill (£768,803); Death Race (£683,038); I’ve Loved You So Long (£116,990); Appaloosa (£90,673); Redbelt (£10,303); #1 Tropic Thunder £1,345,392 2^nd  week 461 screens 46% drop (21.3% of top 10)

Up 47.1% from 2007: (£6,203,477); Halloween (£620,844); Michael Clayton (£601,196); The Brave One (£497,838); Mr Woodcock (£483,017); War (£207,091); Mrs Ratcliffe’s Revolution (£15,600); Hot Rod (£44,241); Across the Universe (£27,471); #1 Run, Fat Boy, Run £988,788 4^th week 398 screens 18% drop (15.9% of top 10)

Up 11.7% from 2006; (£8,159,980); Click (£1,797,073); Hoodwinked (£1,764,419); World Trade Centre (£1,667,589); Life and Lyrics (£95,724); #1 Click £1,797,073 1^st week 402 screens (22.1% of top 10)

Up 48.8% from 2005 (£6,125,984); Revolver (£882,814); Land of the Dead (870,285); Howl’s Moving Castle (212,628); #1 Pride and Prejudice £1,934,083 2^nd week 402 screens 24% drop (31.5% of top 10)

Up 38.2% from 2004 (£6,598,718); Wimbledon (£1,699,096); Hero (£1,005,571); Cellular (£427,365); The Punisher (£186,017); #1 Wimbledon £1,699,096 1^st week 444 screens (25.7% of top 10)

Up 27.1% from 2003 (£7,175,270); Once Upon a Time in Mexico (£846,100); Young Adam (£228,692); Ned Kelly (£211,643); #1 Calendar Girls £1,761,985 4^th week 2^nd #1 439 screens 5% drop (24.5% of top 10)

Up 29.7% from 2002 (£7,031,358); Road To Perdition (expansion (£1,318,382); Van Wilder (£707,783); Divine Secrets Of The Ya-Ya Sisterhood (£124,269); #1 Signs £1,877,796 3^rd week 431 screens 29% drop (26.8% of top 10)

Up 29.4% from 2001 (£7,048,276); Mike Bassett: England Manager (£835,219); Enigma (£796,776); The Score (£736,742); The Brothers (E59,542); #1 A.I. £1,556,911 2^nd week 430 screens 32% drop (22.1% of top 10);

Next weekend in 2018: (£19,552,430); Venom (£8,031,342); Johnny English Strikes Again (£4,117,692); A Star is Born (£4,100,196); Aida – Met Opera 2018 (£302,179); Blindspotting (£28,231); #1 Venom £8,031,342 1^st week 556 screens (41.1%)

Also opened

• The Goldfinch – Warner Bros

Opened with £320,849 from 515 screens

After opening poorly in the US two wees ago The Goldfinch was always expected to repeat its performance in the UK. Ahead of its premiere at the Toronto Film Festival it was seen as one of the first award contenders being based on based on the 2013 Pulitzer Prize winning novel by Donna Tartt and directed by John Crowley who previously directed the Oscar nominated Brooklyn.

When I saw the trailer reminded me of 2011’s Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close also based on a bestselling novel with ensemble cast Tom Hanks, Sandra Bullock, Thomas Horn, Max von Sydow, Viola Davis, John Goodman, Jeffrey Wright, and Zoe Caldwell and directed by Stephen Daldry, was also seen as a potential award contender but failed to find an audience.

The Goldfinch opened similar to 2011’s Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close also from Warner Bros opened with £372,205 in February 2012 from 300 screens.

Many critics said Ansel Elgort had been found out that he can’t act, so it is then surprising Steven Spielberg cast him in his West Side Story remake set for release Christmas 2020.

The Goldfinch had been described as an unfilmable book with TV now a much better suited for long-form storytelling.  Catch 22 and The Alienist both were in development for many years as feature films but moved to TV and were much better for it as they were allowed to expand the story. The Handmaid’s Tale was adapted into 1990 film but has been much more successful as the TV drama series.

Warner Bros released The Goldfinch a week after they released The Kitchen two films that flopped in the US and were always likely to do similarly in the US but despite only playing for two weeks in cinemas these films will still be forced to play out the16 week theatrical window despite not playing few cinemas beyond week 3.

When exhibitors pull a film after 2 weeks surely the theatrical window contract should be voided as it doesn’t do anyone any good that a film is unavailable legally for over 12 weeks, surely these films should be able to be released on VoD within weeks of being pulled.

When films like The Goldfinch are pulled within two weeks you can understand why Netflix only want a three-week window for their films, only have to see how Late Night performed earlier in the year to see the massive gamble companies now have releasing original films.

Surely a studio should be able to decide how many weeks they want a film to play in cinemas and not be forced to hold to antiquated windows which made sense a decade or more ago when films played for months rather than weeks. The Lion King and Toy Story are two of a handful of films this year that will be still in cinemas when they are released on digital.

• Hotel Mumbai – Sky Cinema

Box office figures weren’t reported for either Hotel Mumbai from Sky Cinema or The Laundromat from Netflix

The Weinstein Company originally acquired US and UK rights in 2016 but in April 2018 was announced Weinstein Company would no longer release the film and Sky Cinema acquired UK rights in March 2019, to premiere on Sky Cinema the same day as in cinemas.

Major exhibitors have refused to book any of Sky Cinema films which meant these films opened in less than 50 screens. Sky Cinema used to report box office data for their first few releases but no longer do as Netflix don’t also for their films.

This is despite booking Sherlock and Doctor Who that were simulcast in cinemas the same time as on BBC1 while Sky Cinema is only accessible in 5 million of 30 million homes in the UK.

While Sky Cinema heavily promote these films bringing talent over to do interviews along with heavily promoting with TV and poster advertising.

• Don’t Let Go – Universal Pictures

Opened with £59,351 from 119 screens

 

UK Box Office Top 10

US Box office

• Abominable – Universal Pictures 

Opened with $20.61m; received positive reviews (79% Rotten Tomatoes) and A CinemaScore

It is Universal Pictures seventh film to be #1 this year (8 including Downton Abbey released by Focus Features) overtaking Disney 6  #1 but Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, Frozen 2 and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker will see Disney surpass Universal with #1 films in 2019.

Film played strongly with female audiences; under 25 (33%); over 25 (24%); girls and boys under 12 were nearly even at 51% to 49%, with 48% of the audience being between 7-9, and the 10-12 segment 39% of the audience.

Abominable opened almost a year to the day Smallfoot having similar plot opening with $23.01m (taking $83.24m).

29^th biggest Dreamworks Animation opening between Turbo and Flushed Away

It’s the first Dreamworks Animation film to open in September

Had its world premiere at the Toronto Film Festival earlier this month and will have its UK premiere at the London Film Festival ahead of its UK release.

Abominable is Dreamworks Animations 37^th animated film since Antz in 1998 taking $5.61bn in the US and $15.04bn worldwide.

Over the last decade September has been a lucrative month to open animated films

2009’s Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs opened $30.3m taking $124.87m

2010’s   Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga’Hoole opened $16.11m taking $55.67m

2011’s The Lion King 3D opened $30.15m taking $94.24m

2012’s Hotel Transylvania opened $42.52m taking $148.31m

2013’s Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 opened $34.1m taking $119.79m

2014’s The Boxtrolls opened $17.27m taking $50.83m

2015’s Hotel Transylvania 2 opened $48.46m taking $169.7m

2017’s The LEGO Ninjago Movie opened $20.43m taking $59.28m

2018’s Smallfoot opened $23.04m taking $83.24m

Took $8.8m from 30 territories $10.2m total and $31m worldwide

• Downton Abbey – Focus Features

Dropped 53.8% in its second weekend taking $14.34m and $58.34m

Surprising to see such a steep second weekend drop for Downton Abbey, but its opening did include $4.3m from previews.

5thbiggest Focus Features film ever between Burn After Reading and Darkest Hour and could become their biggest film ever by next weekend overtaking 2005’s Brokeback Mountain $84.0m

Julian Fellowes 2001 film Gosford Park opened limited $241,219 taking $41,308,615

2^nd weekends

2017’s Murder on the Orient Express dropped 51.9% taking $13.8m and $51.73m of $102,826,543

2008’s Mamma Mia! dropped 36.1% taking $17.74m and $62.59m of $144,130,063           

Took $10m from 36 territories and $48.6m total and $106.94m worldwide# #16 biggest Focus Features film worldwide between ParaNorman and The Pianist; #1,730 biggest worldwide between Dying Young and Eyes Wide Shut

• Ad Astra – 20th Century Fox

Dropped 47.3% in its second weekend taking $10.01m and $35.39m

Ad Astra is holding similarly to 1997’s Contact and 2016’s Arrival; will face tough competition over the next two weeks with Joker and Gemini Man. Highlights the problem it had with its date as seen with over previous years opening films targetting similar demographics so close to each other just cannibalizes them and then allows Disney to come through the middle with Maleficent: Mistress of Evil in three weeks’ time.

Ad Astra is already 20^th Century Fox’s 4^th biggest film of 2019 showing how disappointing the year has been and will come short to Alita: Battle Angel $85.71m

It was always likely as Bladerunner 2049 the critical acclaim for Ad Astra would alienate mainstream audiences as 2002’s Solaris did become a $100m art-house sci-fi film despite starring Brad Pitt as Solaris starred George Clooney.

Variety gave reasons why Arrival had a successful opening with $24m; the first was sci-fi isn’t just for boys but as female audiences had Hustlers and Downton Abbey were unlikely to seek out Ad Astra even with Brad Pitt.  Ad Astra budget is rumoured to be up to $100m while Arrival was less than half and similarly premiered at the Venice Film Festival with critical acclaim. The problem with Ad Astra it was on cinephiles radar but not regular cinemagoers.

The problem for Ad Astra was having got Venice Film Festival premiere September 20th was the only date it could open as Oct/Nov was out with Joker, Gemini Man, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, Terminator Dark Fate, Ford V Ferrari Frozen and Ad Astra needed 2 week gap between both It Chapter 2 and Joker so meant opening against Rambo: Last Blood.

Ad Astra had similarities to

2002’s Solaris dropped 65.1% taking $2.35m of $13.22m of $14,973,382

1997’s Contact dropped 21.7% taking $16.11m and $47.4m of $100,920,329

While Grown up autumn released sci-fi films have been popular at the box over recent years

2^nd weekends

2013’s Gravity dropped 22.6% taking $43.18m and $122.32m of $274,092,705     

2014’s Interstellar dropped 40.4% taking $28.3m and $96.92m of $188,020,017  

2015’s The Martian dropped 31.9% taking $37m and $108.71m of $228,433,663

2016’s Arrival dropped 49.6% taking $12.13m and $53.7m of $100,546,139           

2017’s Blade Runner 2049 dropped 52.7% taking $15.49m and $60.97m of $92,054,159  

First Man dropped 48% taking $8.32m and $29.76m of $44,936,545          

Took  $18m from 50 territories and $53.5m total and $89m worldwide; UK $5.6m; France $5.4m; Japan $4.5m; Spain $3.7m; Korea $3.5m; Russia $3.4m; Mexico $2.8m; Australia $2.6m; Germany $2m; #1,601 biggest film worldwide between Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising and Sucker Punch and #204 biggest 20^th Century Fox film worldwide between Marmaduke and The Transporter 2.

• Rambo: Last Blood – Lionsgate

Dropped 54.4% in its second weekend taking $8.59m and $33.17m

The fifth Rambo film opening 27 years after First Blood

Sylvester Stallone 43 films have taken $2.589bn in the US ($5.01bn inflation inflated) and $4.71bn worldwide; 5 Rambo films have taken $327.27m in the US and $785.6m worldwide.

1985’s Rambo: First Blood Part II took $150.41m; 1988’s Rambo III took $53.71m; 1982’s First Blood $47.21m; 2008’s Rambo took $42.75m

Took $23.59m from 18 territories and $56.77m total worldwide; 2008’s Rambo took $69.46m internationally and $112.21m worldwide.

• It: Chapter Two – Warner Bros

Dropped 39.8% in its fourth weekend taking $10.24m and $193.76m;

It the 7^th biggest film of 2019 overtaking Us and John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum

Taking 32% less than 2017’s It Chapter One which took $60.1m in its second weekend and $218.81m 30% more than It Chapter Two.

The two It films have taken $1.11bn worldwide

Was seen as a surprised that It: Chapter Two opened 26% lower than the first film but its drop was similar to Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom $148m Vs Jurassic World $208m and Fate of the Furious $98m Vs Furious 7 $147m, while Deadpool 2, Avengers: Age of Ultron, Harry Potter and Star Wars: The Last Jedi all dropped between 5% and 12%; while also many films open lower than tracking.

The divide between the megamovie box office and the rest has grown this year, is currently a $160m+ gap between #6 biggest film Aladdin $354.8m and #7 Us $175m, after It opened 26% lower than the original film it will be the first of several this fall that are likely to fill that gap with Joker, Gemini Man, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil and Terminator: Dark Fate most likely to join It.

Stephen King has published 54 novels including 7 under the name Richard Bachman, 6 non-fiction books and almost 200 short stories. Over 40 have been adapted into films taking over $1.67bn in the US and $2.13bn worldwide.

Took $11m from 78 territories (#1 in 52) taking $223.5m and $417.4m worldwide; #275 biggest film worldwide between The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian and The Mummy; 13^th biggest worldwide in 2019 between The Secret Life of Pets 2 and Alita: Battle Angel; #54 biggest Warner Bros film worldwide between The Matrix Revolutions and Sex and the City; UK: $21.7m; Mexico: $20.8m; Germany $17.4m; Russia: $17m; Brazil: $11m; Italy: $10.5m; Australia: $9.8m; France: $9.4m; Spain: $9m; Indonesia: $5.5m; Korea: $4.2m; Peru: $4.1m

• Hustlers- STX

Dropped 32.2% in its third weekend taking $11.38m and $80.55m

29 Jennifer Lopez films have taken $1.37bn in the US and $3.15bn worldwide; after a breakthrough performance in Steven Soderbergh’s Out of Sight in 1998 had several successes until 2003’s Gigli but despite 2005’s Monster in Law opening with $23.1m taking $82.93m her biggest films since have been vocally in Ice Age: Continental Drift and Home as she concentrated on her music career. Last Christmas she starred in Second Act while not a massive hit the Working Girl reboot was a return to rom coms she was made a decade earlier.

Constance Wu, Lili Reinhart, Jennifer Lopez and Cardi B have almost 275m followers on social media across Twitter, Instagram and Facebook. The film was tracking ahead of Ocean’s 8, A Star Is Born, Girls Trip, Crazy Rich Asians, Bad Moms and Magic Mike XXL; Constance Wu’s Crazy Rich Asians opened with $26.51m taking $174.52m

90s stripper movies 1995’s Showgirls took $20.35m; 1996’s Striptease took $33.1m and $113.3m worldwide

Hustlers has become STX third biggest film in the US after Bad Moms and The Upside and should become their third $100m+ film.

Took $3m internationally and $14.8m from 15 territories and $94.24m worldwide; #6 biggest STX film worldwide between The Upside and I Feel Pretty; #50 biggest 2019 film worldwide between Good Boys and The Hustle and #1,670 biggest film worldwide between Shooter and Peter Pan (2003)

• The Lion King – Disney

Dropped 38.1% in its eleventh weekend taking $1.65m and $540.07m total

123^rd biggest eleventh weekend between Fried Green Tomatoes and What Lies Beneath; #4 Aladdin (1992) ($7.68m); #43 Beauty and the Beast 1991 ($3.27m); #58 The Greatest Showman ($2.7m); #66 The Lion King 1994 ($3.1m); #83 Aladdin ($2.12m); #181 The Jungle Book 2016 ($1.25m)

8^th biggest Disney film in the US between Incredibles 2 and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story and 12^th biggest film in the US between The Dark Knight and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story.

The Lion King was the 14th film to take over $500m at the US box office should be an amazing achievement for a film but as the original film took $313m in 1994 would be $700m+ inflation inflated its not as big as it looks.

Rather than exhibitors worrying about Netflix films shortened theatrical window should be more concerned with films like The Lion King (opening with $191.7m) and Avengers: Endgame (opening with $357.1m) as these films open big but then drop big  Avengers Endgame took 73%+ of total BO within 10 days while The Lion King took 66% of its total box office within 10 days.

The originally film took $422.78m (24th biggest film in the US between Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom and $803.2m Inflation inflated (20th biggest film in the US between Star Wars: Episode I: The Phantom Menace and The Sting).

The Lion King took over $1m at the US box office for 35 weeks (till February 1995) taking $312.85m; re-released in IMAX in 2002 taking $15.68m and in 2011 in 3D taking $94.24m with $422.78m total;

Globally took $968.5m 42nd biggest film worldwide between Despicable Me 2 and 2016’s The Jungle Book; would be about $2.5bn worldwide inflation inflated.

Decade or more ago $1bn worldwide was cool but with China inflating global BO now 42 members since 1993 as with $100m used to being sign of success both need to be doubled as should really be $1bn US and $3bn+ global club that Avengers Endgame and The Lion King should be members?

14 Disney reimaginations have taken $3.289bn in the US and $9.04n worldwide

Took $3.7m from 30 territories and $1.098bn total and $1.638bn worldwide #7 biggest between Jurassic World and Marvel’s The Avengers; China $120.4m;UK $92m; France $79.4m; Brazil $69.3m; Japan $61.4m; Germany $54.4m; Mexico $51.8m;

The Lion King is the #4 highest grossing title of all time in EMEA; Disney and Fox now have the top 5 films of all-time in EMEA with Avatar, Titanic, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, The Lion King and Avengers: Endgame.

• Judy – Roadside Attractions

Opened with $3.09m from 461 screens; received positive reviews (84% Rotten Tomatoes score)

Normally award contenders will open on limited platform and then slowly expand over several weeks so was surprising Roadside Attractions opted to open limited wide in 461 screens.

Renee Zellweger has been praised for her performance as Judy Garland and is expected to be nominated for Best Actress with the film taking $12m+.

The film expands into over 1,500 screens this weekend which will see if the film has legs as I would of expected the film to have a much slowly platform to play into awards season.

Roadside Attractions and LD Entertainment said it was the biggest debut of the year for a platform release, but that surely must depend on how wide the film will expand over the coming weeks?

• Friends 25th: The One With The Anniversary – Fathom

Opened with $1.17m from 1,586 screens

Despite huge media coverage celebrating the 25^th anniversary of Friends over the last few weeks the fans didn’t come out ln mass to see the episodes in cinemas.

• The Day Shall Come- IFC

Opened with $14,854 from 30 screens; received positive reviews (74% Rotten Tomatoes score)

The Death of Stalin opened in March 2018 with $184,805 on limited release taking $8,047,856

Armando Iannucci’s latest film The Personal History of David Copperfield had its world premiere at the Toronto International Film Festival in September 2019 and has its UK premiere next month at the London Film Festival opening in the UK in January 2020 by Lionsgate UK ad in February by Fox Searchlight.

The film was already on illegal streaming sites by the start of the weekend

UK Box Office Predictions

Since its world premiere at the Venice Film Festival at the end of August Joker has received much media coverage and a lot of controversy but will this transfer into box office?

Joker is a very different comic-book film to those released this year has more in common with Venom opening the same weekend with £8,031,342 (including £2,431,342) taking £16,652,223; Venom was rated 15 as Joker is but received poor reviews unlike Joker. Joker is a very different comic-book film which could open up the film to play to non-comic-book fans, but it could also alienate others.

This made me look towards films like 2001’s Hannibal opening £6,402,540 (£11,165,782 inflation inflated) taking £21,422,605 (£37,360,195 inflation inflated) and 2002’s Red Dragon opening £3,180,493 (£5,352,718 inflation inflated) taking £9,511,130 (£16,007,077 inflation inflated).

2009’s Watchman opened £3,243,001 taking £8,639,867 and 2007’s 300 £4,746,071 (£6,785,472 inflation inflated) taking £13,986,190 (£19,996,097 inflation inflated)

1995’s Seven, 1997’s Funny Games, 1987’s Angel Heart, 1991’s Cape Fear and 2010’s Shutter Island (opened £2,250,178 taking £10,599,763).

If Joker opens with £6m+ would be in between 2017’s Wonder Woman £6,179,616 opening and Justice League £7,264,784 opening much less than Batman Vs Superman: Dawn of Justice £14,621,007 , Suicide Squad £11,252,225 and Man of Steel £11,198,786 but of course Joker is a very different film opening at a very different time of year and has a 15 certificate.

Ahead of Joker’s US release there has been a lot of concern as it brought back the shocking memories of 2012’s Aurora cinema murders during the opening weekend of The Dark Knight Rises with exhibitors banning costumes and face masks. Reminding people of the dark days of cinema in early 90s when there were stabbings and shootings outside cinemas in Los Angeles for New Jack City and Boys N the Hood.

A month ahead of release Joker was tracking to open anything between $50-$80m with many speculating it could open as big as $100m this weekend; 2018’s Venom $80.25m is the current biggest October opening.

Closest comic-book comparison is 2017’s Logan opened with $88.41m (taking $226.27m) also received critical acclaim and 2018’s Venom $80.25m (taking $213.51m) other R-rated comic-book films 2009’s Watchmen opened $55.2m and 2007’s 300 $70.9m and Deadpool $132.4m; Deadpool 2 $125.5m but it was a very different R-rated film.

Being a psychological thriller my comparisons are 2001’s Hannibal opening $58m (taking $165.1m) and 2002’s Red Dragon $36.54m (taking $93.14m) being 18 years since Hannibal opened could almost double these two films to get their inflation inflated totals. 

Critics have compared Joker to 1983’s The Kings of Comedy opened platform with $137,624 taking $2,536,242.

After having premieres at Venice and Toronto Film Festivals Warner Bros had a much lower profile premiere in Los Angeles over the weekend with high security but with no interviews on the green carpet with only a small press line for photographs. The police have said they will maintain high visibility around cinemas in Los Angeles over opening weekend but have been no credible threats.

Also opening is Lucy in the Sky premiered at the Toronto Film Festival last month receiving poor reviews with most critics more interested in the lack of diapers than the film. Fox Searchlight open it in 38 screens and its unlikely to play any wider.

Opening in UK Next Week

• Abominable – Universal Pictures

Animated adventure produced by DreamWorks Animation featuring voices of Chloe Bennet, Albert Tsai, Tenzing Norgay Trainor, Eddie Izzard, Sarah Paulson, Tsai Chin and Michelle Wong and directed by Jill Culton; premiered at the Toronto International Film Festival receiving positive reviews 83% Rotten Tomatoes.

The project was in development at DreamWorks Animation since 2010 originally called Everest

The first trailer was released in March exclusively in cinemas with Dumbo, the second trailer was released in May.

Abominable opens almost a year to the day Smallfoot opened that was also the story about a yeti and a human; 2028’s Smallfoot opened with £2,324,189 taking £10,932,839.

It is Universal Pictures second Dreamworks Animation release (after How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World opened with £5,323,448 taking £19,281,679) and their first original film and Dreamworks Animations first original film since 2013’s Turbo (opened £3,892,774 including £1,765,953 previews taking £10,932,902) a critical and box office flop.

The marketplace is crowded with adult films Abominable is the first children’s film to be released since Dora and the Lost City of Gold and Angry Birds Movie 2 and in two weeks’ time The Lion King should be on its way out of the top 10.

Opens two weeks ahead of half term holidays and a week before Maleficent: Mistress of Evil and Shaun The Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (has previews the same weekend as Abominable)

• Gemini Man – Paramount Pictures

Sci-fi action film starring Will Smith, Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Clive Owen, and Benedict Wong and directed by Ang Lee

It is the first Jerry Bruckheimer film for Paramount Pictures since 1990’s Days of Thunder. Jerry Bruckheimer and Don Simpson had success at the studio in the mid-80s with Flashdance, Beverly Hills Cop, Top Gun, Beverly Hills Cop 2 and Days of Thunder but then Jerry Bruckheimer moved to Disney in the early 90s producing 27 films including Crimson Tide, Dangerous Minds, The Rock, Con Air, Armageddon, Enemy of the State, Coyote Ugly, Pearl Harbor, National Treasure, Pirates of the Caribbean but the failure of 2013’s The Lone Ranger saw Disney move into properties and not interested in the films he produced.

Disney’s production deal ended with Jerry Bruckheimer in 2014 but Paramount Pictures couldn’t wait so they swapped Indiana Jones rights to move him to the studio months earlier but was produced 2017’s Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales. Did Paramount acquire Jerry Bruckheimer’s font in the deal with TV spots having the font seen on many of Disney’s Jerry Bruckheimer films.

Top Gun: Maverick was expected to be his first film for the studio, but they delayed its release from this summer to next summer.

Gemini Man was originally developed at Disney in 1997 with Harrison Ford, Chris O’Donnell, Mel Gibson, Jon Voight, Nicolas Cage, Clint Eastwood, and Sean Connery all attached to star and Tony Scott, Curtis Hanson, and Joe Carnahan all attached to direct. Disney crested de-aging software at the time but didn’t think the technology was good enough at the time. In 2016 Skydance Media acquired the rights with Jerry Bruckheimer as producer for Paramount Pictures.

The film will be released in 120fps 3D 4K early buzz said it was the best 3D film in years and needs to be seen in 3D as Gravity, but there is a question over how many screens will screen the film in 120fps 3D 4K as 2016’s Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk was shown in only a handful of screens in the format worldwide.

 In March Paramount Pictures asked exhibitors to embrace the format but the problem is that as its only one film will exhibitors be willing to install it. In 1993 Steven Spielberg was launching DTS demanding all cinemas to be fitted with it, but Paramount doesn’t have enough power to demand this, if Disney demanded it for Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker it would be fitted in thousands of cinemas worldwide.

Originally conceived in 1997, the film went through development hell for nearly 20 years. Several directors, including Tony Scott, Curtis Hanson, and Joe Carnahan, were all attached at some point and numerous actors, including Harrison Ford, Mel Gibson, Clint Eastwood, and Sean Connery, were set to star. In 2016, Skydance Media purchased the rights to the screenplay (which had been through several rewrites) from Disney, and in October 2017, Ang Lee signed on to direct for Skydance with Paramount handling distribution rights. Filming took place from February through May 2018.

1998’s Enemy of the State opened with £1,420,216 (£2,544,407 inflation inflated) taking £11,299,124 (£20,243,096 inflation inflated).

• The Day Shall Come – eOne

Black comedy thriller starring stars Marchánt Davis, Anna Kendrick, Danielle Brooks and Denis O’Hare and written and directed by Chris Morris; had its world premiere at South by Southwest  in March receiving positive reviews 81% Rotten Tomatoes score.

Chris Morris follow-up to Four Lions only had a very limited cinema release in November 2010 almost 6 months after its UK release and almost a year after its US premiere at the Sundance Film Festival.

Four Lions opened in May 2010 in the UK taking £608,608 from 115 screens; expanding into 218 screens in its second weekend taking £496,649 and £1,444,364 going on to take £2,928,884.

It’s surprising the film is opening in the US two weeks before the UK as the UK will be its key market but eOne had success opening Chris Morris’s former cohort Armando Iannucci’s The Death of Stalin also opening in October (Chris Morris and Armando Iannucci 25 years ago made TV series The Day Today, news spoof fake news show that also launched Alan Partridge which was a spin-off of 1991 On the Hour a spoof radio news magazine show. Chris Morris went on to make Brass Eye and Armando Iannucci The Thick of In and In The Loop.

The Death of Stalin opened in the UK October 2017 with £995,458 from 138 screens expanding to 314 screens in its second weekend taking £812,288 and £5,013,045 total;

It opened in March 2018 with $184,805 on limited release taking $8,047,856

Armando Iannucci’s latest film The Personal History of David Copperfield had its world premiere at the Toronto International Film Festival in September 2019 and has its UK premiere next month at the London Film Festival opening in the UK in January 2020 by Lionsgate UK ad in February by Fox Searchlight.

Maybe the addition of Anna Kendrick in The Day Shall Come the film could find a wider audience in the US as her last film A Simple Favour opened with $16.01m last September taking $53.54m; Anna Kendrick has had mixed success at the box office away from Pitch Perfect trilogy and Trolls (Trolls World Tour opened next year).

• Farming – Lionsgate

Drama starring Damson Idris, Kate Beckinsale, John Dagleish, Jaime Winstone, Genevieve Nnaji, and Gugu Mbatha-Raw and written and directed by Adewale Akinnuoye-Agbaje; premiered at the 2018 Toronto International Film Festival receiving mixed reviews.

As it has taken Lionsgate over a year to release the film in the UK they obviously have limited expectations at the box office.

Opening in US Next Week

• Gemini Man – Paramount Pictures

Jerry Bruckheimer 44 films have taken $4.89bn in the US and $11.57bn worldwide and Will Smith’s 26 films have taken $3.56bn in the US and $8.69bn worldwide.

Similar films include 2012’s Looper opened with $20.8m taking $66.48m and $176.5m worldwide

Will Smith’s 1998’s Enemy of the State opened with $20.03m taking $111.54m and $250.64m worldwide.

The de-aging software used to make Will Smith fight a younger version of himself was also used earlier this year to make Samuel L Jackson younger in Captain Marvel and is also used to make Robert De Niro, Al Pacino, and Joe Pesci younger in Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman. It’s a regular occurrence in films in recent years but it was surprising that it wasn’t done with the Star Wars Solo anthology film as there is only one actor that is Han Solo and that’s Harrison Ford.

Disney had The Secret Lab develop a test short called Human Face Project, but they were never happy with the technology at the time, while Gemini Man went through many directors and actors before Skydance Media acquired the rights from Disney in 2016. The trailers do feel like it’s a 90s film made 20 years later, while the technology might of changed will audiences be as excited to see a 90s action film.

Gemini Man also has to deal with the second weekend of Joker which is expected to open anywhere up to $100m over its opening weekend so would expect a second weekend of $40m+.

Tracking to open with $20m-$30m

• Jexi – Lionsgate

Comedy starring Adam DeVine, Alexandra Shipp, Michael Peña, Rose Byrne, Justin Hartley, Wanda Sykes, Ron Funches and Charlyne Yi and written and directed by Jon Lucas and Scott Moore.

• The Addams Family – United Artists

Animation comedy horror film based on the comics of the same name by Charles Addams featuring voices of Oscar Isaac, Charlize Theron, Chloë Grace Moretz, Finn Wolfhard, Nick Kroll, Snoop Dogg, Bette Midler, and Allison Janney and directed by Conrad Vernon and Greg Tiernan.

Rights were originally acquired by Illumination Entertainment in 2010 but in 2013 it was announced MGM would produce the film.

Christina Aguilera will release the song Haunted Heart from the films soundtrack.

The Addams Family was previously made as a live-action film in 1991 was produced by Orion Pictures but Paramount Pictures acquired the film after Orion went bankrupt; opened with $24.2m taking $113.5m and $191.5m worldwide. The sequel Addams Family Values released two years later wasn’t nearly as successful opened with $14.11m taking $48.9m.

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