Top 5 Breakdown
- Arrival – £2,924,059 – NE
Arrival had the biggest opening for director Denis Villeneuve Sicario opened October 2015 with £1.37m taking £4.62m and Prisoners opened September 2013 with £1.32m taking £6.9m; next up directs the long-awaited Blade Runner 2049 released in October 2017.
Performed strongly over its four-day opening taking £354,052 from Thursday previews with a strong £1.16m from Saturday.
Harder to compare with Adam Adams and Jeremy Renner previous films having roles in franchises Man of Steel, Batman Vs Superman: Dawn of Justice, Night at the Museum 2, Mission Impossible – Ghost Protocol, Avengers Assemble, Avengers: Age of Ultron, Mission Impossible – Rogue Nation and Captain America: Civil War both appearing together in 2013’s American Hustle. 2007’s Enchanted can be the only film that is an Amy Adam’s headlined film opening with £2.54m while 2008’s The Hurt Locker opened with £308,887 and 2012’s The Bourne Legacy £4.62m.
Adult sci-fi dramas have been very successful at the box office during the autumn over the last three years with Arrival following in the footprints of Gravity receiving its world premiere at the Venice Film Festival in September and similar to The Martian also screened at Toronto Film Festival gaining positive reviews and strong buzz. Both then received their UK premieres during the London Film Festival in October; Interstellar premiered in October 2014 n the US and the UK.
Arrival has been compared to Robert Zemeckis’s film Contact which took £3.21m in 1997; Steven Spielberg’s 1977 Close Encounters of the Third Kind and The Day the Earth Stood Still the 2009 remake was poorly received opened with £2.75m taking £6.9m.
Gravity opened with £6.23m, Interstellar opened with £5.36m the same weekend in November 2013 and 2014 and The Martian opened last October with £6.52m. All three films had strong legs
In November 2013: Gravity dropped only 14% in its second weekend and 45% in its third against the arrival of The Hunger Games: Catching Fire £12.1m still managing to take £19.4m (after 3 weeks) but its box office was inflated by 3D with over 90% coming from 3D.
In November 2014: Interstellar dropped 30% in its second weekend and 50% in its third against the arrival of The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 £12.64m taking £15.8m (after 3 weeks) but without 3D surcharges, without those for Gravity its box office would have been less than Interstellar £12.9m.
In October 2015: The Martian dropped 19% in its second weekend and 37% in its third weekend against arrivals of Hotel Transylvania 2 £6.30m, Suffragette £2.93m and Pan £2.73m taking £17.48m (after 3 weeks) 38% of its box office came from 3D compared to 78% of Gravity’s box office which also had IMAX box office which The Martian never had.
Arrival must deal with Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them in its second weekend while not targeting the same audience it will still have a major impact on its second-weekend box office has The Hunger Games films had with both Gravity and Interstellar. With Allied and A United Kingdom opening against Arrival in week 3 which Arrival should have no problem with the strong word of mouth and reviews.
The only issue I have with the film is the title films often change their titles during production but when a film is based on existing content always surprises me when studios make that decision. Arrival’s original title was Story of Your Life which isn’t a great sounding title as it sounds like the One Direction song, Story of My Life but it’s still not as generically dull as Arrival (it was changed as test audiences didn’t like the title) similarly the upcoming Brad Pitt film Five Seconds of Silence was changed to the dull Allied.
Of course, we will never know if films would have performed differently at the box office with their original titles; these are some films that did Todd Philip’s War Dogs original title was Arms and the Dudes which was the title of the book the film was based on.
Keira Knightley and Mark Ruffalo 2013 film Can a Song Save Your Life? Was changed due to poor testing to Begin Again.
Tom Cruise’s Edge of Tomorrow was based on the book All You Need Is Kill producers changed it as they felt a film with kill in the title was too problematic.
Lee Daniels film The Butler became Lee Daniels’ The Butler after Warner Bros refused The Weinstein Company permission to use the title as it was the name of a 1916 Warner Bros short.
2008 Will Smith film Hancock was originally Tonight, He Comes was changed to his character in the film John Hancock and then just Hancock.
Wes Craven’s 1996 Scream script by Kevin Williamson was originally titled Scary Movie changed to Scream after Harvey Weinstein watched Janet Jackson music video called Scream. The title Scary Movie as used for the 2000 horror spoof film and its sequels.
One of the most famous film title changes which was Julia Roberts breakthrough movie 1990’s Pretty Woman originally called 3000 which was the amount of money she was paid. It was original to be a dark drama about a sex worker in Los Angeles but then Disney head Jeffrey Katzenberg wanted it to be a modern-day fairy tale.
- Doctor Strange – £2,257,258 – £19,596,167
Down 32.1% in its third weekend has become the second biggest Marvel original film in the UK behind Guardians of the Galaxy and the eighth biggest Marvel film in the UK.
Will shortly overtake Thor: The Dark World and Iron Man 2 and will end being the sixth biggest Marvel film in the UK while many would see this as a success being an “original” Marvel film but this label as original is outdated being the fourteenth Marvel film as the audience for all Marvel Cinematic Universe films would be similar so those who went to see Captain America Civil should have also come out to see Doctor Strange.
Is now the fourteenth biggest film in the UK moving ahead of X-Men: Apocalypse and will likely end as the eleventh biggest film above The Revenant, The Girl on the Train and Jason Bourne but likely to come shortly from topping Zootropolis.
Doctor Strange becomes one of the few mid-range box office hits the £20-30m which have become far less in recent years with 15 films taking £10-£20m but only 4 currently taking between £20-30m and 5 films £30-40m.
Would have expected with the Marvel brand, Doctor Strange to match the £30m+ box office of Suicide Squad, Batman Vs Superman: Dawn of Justice, Captain America Civil War, and Deadpool.
| Avengers Assemble | 26th April 2012 | £15.78m | 30.3% | 3.28x | £51.91m |
| Avengers: Age of Ultron | 23 April 2015 | £17.99m | 37.2% | 2.68x | £48.32m |
| CA: Civil War | 29th April 2016 | £14.46m | 39.1% | 2.55x | £36.94m |
| Iron Man 3 | 25th April 2013 | £11.39m | 31.1% | 3.22x | £36.68m |
| Guardians of the Galaxy | 31st July 2014 | £6.35m | 22.3% | 4.49x | £28.53m |
| Doctor Strange* | 25th October 2016 | £9.28m | 2.43x* | £22.64m** | |
| Iron Man 2 | 30th April 2010 | £7.68m | 36.7% | 2.72x | £21.18m |
| Thor: The Dark World | 30th October 2013 | £8.65m | 43.8% | 2.27x | £20.13m |
| CA: Winter Soldier | 26th March 2014 | £6.03m | 31.2% | 3.20x | £19.31m |
| Iron Man | 2nd May 2008 | £5.46m | 31.8% | 3.13x | £17.13m |
| Ant-Man | 17th July 2015 | £4.01m | 24.6% | 4.06x | £16.29m |
| Thor | 27th April 2011 | £5.44m | 39.3% | 2.54x | £13.84m |
| CA: The First Avenger | 29th July 2011 | £2.98m | 32.3% | 3.09x | £9.21m |
| The incredible Hulk | 13th June 2008 | £3.25m | 36.7% | 2.48x | £8.06m |
14 Marvel Film Performance weeks 1-3
| OWE | 2WE | Drop | total | 3WE | drop | total | ||
| Iron Man | 2 May 2008 | £5.46 | £1.9m | 64% | £10.1 | £1.9m | 3% | £12.99 |
| Incredible Hulk | 13 Jun 2008 | £3.25 | £1.8m | 43% | £6.3 | £654k | 65% | £7.65 |
| Iron Man 2 | 30 Apr 2010 | £7.68 | £3.2m | 58% | £15.1 | £1.6m | 50% | £17.9 |
| Thor | 27 Apr 2011 | £5.44 | £1.9m | 64% | £9.52 | £1.36m | 30% | £11.82 |
| CA: First Avenger | 29 July 2011 | £2.98 | £1.4m | 51% | £6.9 | £597k | 59% | £8.62 |
| Avengers Assemble | 26 Apr 2012 | £15.78 | £8.1m | 49% | £29.8 | £4.16m | 49% | £40.27 |
| Iron Man 3 | 25 Apr 2013 | £11.39 | £6.3m | 54% | £24.5 | £3.18m | 50% | £31.12 |
| Thor: TDW | 30 Oct 2013 | £8.65 | £2.9m | 66% | £13.9 | £1.78m | 40% | £17.1 |
| CA: Winter Soldier | 26 Mar 2014 | £6.03 | £2.7m | 67% | £10.9 | £1.78m | 36% | £14.61 |
| GOTG | 31 Jul 2014 | £6.35 | £3.3m | 48% | £13.8 | £2.11m | 37% | £18.79 |
| Avengers: AOU | 23 Apr 2015 | £17.99 | £8.6m | 51% | £40.3 | £1.66m | 53% | £43.25 |
| Ant-Man | 17 Jul 2015 | £4.01 | £2.5m | 37% | £9.61 | £1.12m | 55% | £12.76 |
| CA: Civil War | 29 Apr 2016 | £14.46 | £4.8m | 67% | £27.3 | £2.78m | 42% | £32.16 |
| Doctor Strange | 25 Oct 2016 | £9.28 | £3.4m | 63% | £15.7 | £2.34m | 32% | £19.58 |
2016’s comic book movies
| Deadpool | 10 Feb 2016 | £13.79 | £5.68 | 48% | £25.8m | £2.97m | 47% | £31.14 |
| BvS | 25 Mar 2016 | £14.62 | £4.66 | 68% | £27.8m | £2.27m | 51% | £33.30 |
| CA: Civil War | 29 Apr 2016 | £14.46 | £4.8m | 67% | £27.3m | £2.78m | 42% | £32.16 |
| X-Men Apocalypse | 20 May 2016 | £7.35 | £2.5m | 65% | £12.11m | £1.25m | 50% | £15.85 |
| Suicide Squad | 5 Aug 2016 | £11.21 | £4.2m | 39% | £22.18m | £2.55m | 39% | £27.66 |
| Doctor Strange | 25 Oct 2016 | £9.28 | £3.4m | 63% | £15.7m | £2.34m | 32% | £19.58 |
Deadpool – 3rd w/e total £31.97m – 84.7% of final box office £37.73m
Batman Vs Superman: Dawn of Justice – 3rd w/e total £33.3m – 92.1% of final BO £36.17m
Captain America: Civil War – 3rd w/e total £ 32.1m – 86.9% of final BO £36.94m
X-Men: Apocalypse – 3rd w/e total £15.85m – 86.4% of final BO £18.34m
Suicide Squad – 3rd w/e total £27.6m – 82.6% of final BO £33.41m
Doctor Strange 3rd w/e total £19.58m – (estimate 86.6% of final BO £22.64m)
—
Deadpool – final box office 2.73x opening w/e
Batman Vs Superman: Dawn of Justice – final box office 2.47x opening w/e
Captain America: Civil War -final box office 2.55x opening w/e
X-Men: Apocalypse – final box office 2.49x opening w/e
Suicide Squad – final box office 2.98x opening w/e
Doctor Strange – estimate final box office 2.43x opening w/e
Many have taken issues with Marvel Cinematic Universe films
- Trolls – £1,820,378 – £19,327,276
Holding strongly in its fourth weekend dropping only 9.1% has overtaken of last year’s Hotel Transylvania 2 which had taken £17.5m after 4 weeks.
How Trolls holds next weekend against Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them will be dependent on if Trolls has a chance to overtake Zootropolis over the coming weeks before the arrival of Moana in 3 weeks’ time.
Trolls is 20th Century Fox’s fourth biggest Dreamworks Animation film (The Croods, Home and How to Train Your Dragon 2 benefited from longer school holidays) having two more films Boss Baby and Captain Underpants to be released next year before Dreamworks Animation moves to Universal Pictures. Apart from Penguins of Madagascar which opened in the shadows of Paddington all eight films have been very lucrative.
| Trolls | 21 October 2016 | £5.43m | ||
| Kung Fu Panda 3 | 18 March 2016 | £4.76m | x2.93 | £13.99m |
| Home | 20 March 2015 | £6.02m | x4.15 | £24.97m |
| Penguins of Madagascar | 5 Dec 2014 | £1.61m | x4.94 | £7.96m |
| How to Train Your Dragon 2 | 11 July 2014 | £7.81m | x3.15 | £24.25m |
| Mr. Peaboy & Sherman | 7 Feb 2014 | £3.91m | x3.46 | £13.55m |
| Turbo | 17 Oct 2013 | £3.89m | x2.91 | £11.32m |
| The Croods | 22 March 2013 | £5.37m | x4.87 | £26.15m |
20th Century Fox have released twice as many films as Disney in 2016 but while Disney might have had three of the top 5 films of 2016 to date 20th Century Fox are surprisingly ahead in total box office £195.43m Vs £184.29m; of course, this doesn’t include the £36m Star Wars: The Force Awakens box office taken in 2016. But does show the strength of 20th Century Fox’s 2016 slate which included Deadpool, The Revenant, and Absolutely Fabulous: The Movie despite their massive disappointments Independence Day: Resurgence, Ice Age: Collusion Course and X-Men: Apocalypse.
Remaining films Birth of a Nation unlikely to generate much interest comedy Why Him? Could attract the similar audience as last year’s Daddy’s Home. Their 2017 slate has a similar mix of comic-book, sci-fi, animation and more interesting titles including Rules Don’t Apply, Hidden Figures, Gifted, Red Sparrow and The Greatest Showman on Earth.
- The Accountant – £1,020,899 – £3,622,284
Despite mixed reviews held well in its second weekend down 37.1% (not including previews);
Not including Batman Vs Superman: Dawn of Justice and Gone Girl and ensemble action films Armageddon and Pearl Harbour, The Accountant is Ben Affleck’s sixth biggest film in the UK and should by next weekend become his third behind State of Play and Daredevil. Of course, none of this means anything as State of play was released 7 years ago, and Daredevil 13 years ago;
It is those exceptions that have delayed Ben Affleck’s stardom status by over 10 years as he hasn’t had the regular box office success on his own that other actors have had over the same time only must compare his acting career with his co-Oscar winner for Good Will Hunting Matt Damon and their comparable box office success since.
Up to Good Will Hunting both had done bit parts Matt Damon had just starred in Courage Under Fire a few years before starred in Geronimo: An American Legend which was expected to be his breakthrough movie but flopped. Immediately after Good Will Hunting Matt starred in Saving Private Ryan and Ben in Armageddon both followed with several misfires until each 2001 with Ocean’s 11 which gave Matt Damon his first film series while Ben Affleck starred in the bigger hit Pearl Harbour. Ben Affleck, of course, had franchise opportunities as Jack Ryan in the excellent The Sum of All Fears and Matt Murdock in Daredevil but neither were as successful as Matt Damon’s The Bourne Identity.
It was going to get worse for Ben starring in one of the biggest flops ever Gigli with his then girlfriend Jennifer Lopez (What is surprising is actors never seem to learn Tom Cruise and Nicole Kidman starred in Eyes Wide Shut then broke up soon after and likewise Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie after By the Sea).
While Matt Damon continued to have success bar some minor blips, Ben Affleck had a slow road to redemption 2006’s Hollywoodland was his comeback movie starring as George Reeves who was most famous for playing Superman in the 1950s, the film was a critical hit and Ben went on to have small roles in several films include The Company Men which again received critical acclaim. It was his 2010 film The Town followed by Oscar-winning film Argo in 2012 that secured his comeback and then 2014’s Gone Girl. Before starring as Batman in Batman Vs Superman: Dawn of Justice and Suicide Squad with his directing follow-up Live By Night next up for release and Justice League opening next November.
| OWE | 2WE | |||||
| Runner Runner | 27 September 2013 | £0.76m | $503,111 | -34% | £1.79m | £2.63m |
| Argo | 7 November 2012 | £1.28m | £807,457 | -37% | £2.82m | £4.92m |
| The Town | 24 September 2010 | £1.01m | £890,309 | +1% | £2.61m | £4.77m |
| State of Play | 24 April 2009 | £1.51m | £981,519 | -35% | £3.27m | £5.41m |
| Paycheck | 16 January 2004 | £927,212 | £531,812 | -43% | £1.82m | £2.26m |
| Daredevil | 14 February 2003 | £1.95m | £961,671 | -51% | £3.86m | £5.35m |
| The Sum of All Fears | 16 August 2002 | £1.14m | £801,586 | -30% | £2.79m | £4.48m |
| Changing Lanes | 1 November 2002 | £808,268 | E562,573 | -30% | £1.75m | £2.82m |
- A Street Cat Named Bob – £865,654 – £2,609,103
The feel-good comedy was down only 12.7% in its second weekend thanks to strong word of mouth; after all the doom and gloom Trump headlines many came to cinemas on both sides of the Atlantic as cinema has historically been the place people go for escapism with films performed far stronger than expected.
Also, released
American Pastoral – Entertainment – £56,832 from 81 screens
Other box office news
—-
This weekend’s top 10 box office took £10,984,043 down 3.9% from last weekend £11,430,004; weekend admissions 1,333,017 down 4.1% from last weekend 1,389,319.
The weekend was down 25.5% from same weekend last year (£14,753,814) when The Lady in the Van – £2,241,679, Prem Ratan Dham Payo £911,777, Steve Jobs £895,160, The Hallow £51,709 and Fathers and Daughters £25,000 opened.
Same weekend opening in 2014: The Imitation Game opened with £2,683,498, Nativity 3 £1,786,952, The Drop £616,103.
Next weekend in 2015: The Hunger Games Mockingjay Part 2 £11,247,588, The Dressmaker £235,668, The Perfect Guy £102,924 opened.
A recent survey said average ticket price was £8.24 (the same cost as 13 pints of cider) up from Cinema Exhibitors Association average ticket price of £7.21 for 2015 a 7.3% increase from 2014.
Complete UK Box office top 10 – November 11th – 13th 2016
US Box Office
- Disney – Doctor Strange – drops 49.5% – $43m – $153m;
| Marvel’s The Avengers | 4th May 2012 | $207.4m | $623.3m | $103.1m | -50.3% | $373.1m |
| Avengers: Age of Ultron | 1st May 2015 | $191.2m | $459.1m | $77.7m | -59.4% | $313.4m |
| CA: Civil War | 6th May 2016 | $179.1m | $408.1m | $72.6m | -59.5% | $295.9m |
| Iron Man 3 | 3rd May 2013 | $175.1m | $209.1m | $72.5m | -58.4% | $284.9m |
| Iron Man 2 | 7th May 2010 | $128.1m | $321.4m | $52.1m | -59.4% | $211.2m |
| Iron Man | 2nd May 2008 | $98.6m | $318.4m | $51.2m | -48.1% | $177.8m |
| CA: The Winter Soldier | 4th April 2014 | $95.1m | $259.7m | $41.2m | -56.6% | $158.8m+ |
| Guardians of the Galaxy | 1st Aug 2014 | $94.3m | $333.1m | $42.1m | -55.3% | $176.5m |
| Thor: The Dark World | 8th Nov 2013 | $85.7m | $206.3m | $36.5m | -57.3% | $145.1m |
| Doctor Strange | 4th Nov 2016 | $85.1m | $232m* | $43.1m | -49.4% | $153.1m |
| Thor | 6th May 2011 | $65.7m | $181.1m | $34.7m | -47.2% | $119.4m |
| CA: The First Avenger | 22nd July 2011 | $65.1m | $176.6m | $25.5m | -60.7% | $117.4m |
| Ant-Man | 17th July 2015 | $57.2m | $180.2m | $24.9m | -56.5% | $106.2m |
| The Incredible Hulk | 13th June 2008 | $55.4m | $123.8m | $22.1m | -60.1% | $97.1m |
- 20th Century Fox – Trolls – drops 24.8% – $35m – $94m; has overtaken Penguins of Madagascar and Turbo to become 20th Century Fox’s 17th biggest animated film over the coming week will overtake Epic and Mr. Peabody & Sherman; depending on how it holds in the coming weeks could climb into their top 10 biggest animated film becoming their fourth biggest Dreamworks Animation film.
- Paramount – Arrival – opens $24.1m; received A- CinemaScore
| OWE | 2 WE | Drop | Total | 3 WE | Drop | total | ||
| Gravity | 4th Oct 2013 | $55.7m | $43.1m | 22.6% | $122.3m | $30.1m | 30.5% | $169.5m |
| Interstellar | 5th Nov 2014 | $47.5m | $28.3m | 40.4% | $96.9m | $15.3m | 45.8% | $120.9m |
| The Martian | 2nd Oct 2015 | $54.3m | $37.0m | 31.9% | $108.7m | $21.3m | 26.1% | $143.5m |
| Contact | 7th July 1997 | $20.58m | $16.1m | 21.7% | $47.4m | $9.7m | 39.8% | $64.9m |
- Universal – Almost Christmas – opens $15.1m; received A- CinemaScore
- Lionsgate – Hacksaw Ridge – drops 30% – $10.6m – $32.1m;
- Warner – The Accountant – drops 24.9% – $4.4m – $77.5m;
- Europacorp – Shut In – opens $3.6m;
- Lionsgate – Boo! A Madea Halloween – drops 54.1% – $3.5m – $70.4m
- Paramount – Jack Reacher: Never Go Back – drops 39.4% – $3.3m – $54.5m
- Sony Pictures – Inferno – drops 47.1% – $3.2m – $31.5m; The Da Vinci Code dropped 45.3 in its third weekend taking $18.6m total $178m; Angels & Demons dropped 47.7% taking $11.3m total $104.9m;
On limited release expansion
A24 – Moonlight – up 10.2% – $1.36m – adding 93 screens – total $4.77m
Focus – Loving – up 233.3% – $532,0000 – adding 42 screens – total $740,191
Opened on limited release
Sony Pictures – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk – opens $120,000 from 2 screens
Sony Classics – Elle – opens $56,012 from 2 screens
Main opening Friday weekend predictions:
Opening UK
- Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them – Warner
Fantasy adventure was going to be the first part of the prequel trilogy to the Harry Potter film series (but was announced in October would be a five part series) based on J. K. Rowling book of the same name. Starring Eddie Redmayne, Katherine Waterston, Dan Fogler, Alison Sudol, and Colin Farrell and directed by David Yates (his second film of 2016 Legend of Tarzan was released in July).
In July 2011 after Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 was released most people thought that this was the end of the Harry Potter franchise but the films have taken almost $2.4 billion worldwide.
The Warner Bros. Studio Tour at Leavesden Studios which opened in 2012 has continued to attract Harry Potter fans as has the two-part West-End play Harry Potter and the Cursed Child tickets went on sale 28 October 2015 and in under 8 hours 175,000 tickets were sold currently booking until December 2017. Rumours a few weeks ago Warner Bros were planning to turn the show into a film they denied it but when the third Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them film is released in 2020 I’m sure Harry Potter and the Cursed Child parts 1 & 2 will join the Harry potter franchise and similar to many franchises today from Star Wars, Furious, and Transformers Warner Bros will be likely making Harry Potter movies for many years to come.
An announcement trailer was released December 15th, 2015 with the first teaser shown during the MTV Movie Awards on April 10th with more footage shown at Comic-Con with the trailer released 23 July 2016.
| HP and the Philosopher’s Stone | 16 November 2001 | £16.33m | 24.7% | £66.1m |
| HP and the Chamber of Secrets | 15 November 2002 | £18.71m | 34.1% | £54.8m |
| HP and the Prisoner of Azkaban | 31 May 2004 | £23.88m | 51.8% | £46.1m |
| HP and the Goblet of Fire | 18 November 2005 | £14.93m | 24.6% | £60.5m |
| HP and the Order of the Phoenix | 12 July 2007 | £16.49m | 28.4% | £58m |
| HP and the Half-Blood Prince | 15 July 2009 | £19.78m | 39.1% | £50.7m |
| HP and the Deathly Hallows P1 | 19 November 2011 | £18.31m | 35.1% | £52.2m |
| HP and the Deathly Hallows P2 | 15 July 2011 | £23.75m | 32.4% | £73.1m |
While many will compare Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find them with previous Harry Potter films it shouldn’t be due to as with Star Wars Rogue One, Fantastic Beasts are more like the Marvel Cinematic Universe and DC Extended Universe or The Hobbit prequels compared with The Lord of the Rings trilogy.
As with Rogue One trailers, Fantastic Beasts haven’t been viewed in the huge number of Harry Potter films.
While many of Harry Potter openings were inflated by weekend previews the first film in 2001 must have been one of the first films to have all day Sat/Sun previews the weekend before opening while Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban had a 7-day opening weekend during half-term.
While there is huge awareness for the Harry Potter brand the original films were boosted by the hundreds of millions of books they had sold and the pre-teen audience now are adults but helping Fantastic Beasts is it’s a 12A compared to the later original films were a 12; the 12A allows a much wider audience.
Embargo broke early Sunday morning with very positive reviews IndieWire calling it one of the best blockbusters of the year.
| Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey | 14 Dec 2012 | £11.6m | 22.3% | £51.99m |
| Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug | 13 Dec 2013 | £9.32m | 21.8% | £42.69m |
| Hobbit: The Battle of the 5 Armies | 12 Dec 2014 | £9.75m | 23.6% | £41.21m |
While the comparison with The Hobbit films is likely for its opening as Fantastic Beasts but as it opens a month before Christmas doesn’t benefit from lucrative school holidays as The Hobbit films could do.
The Hunger Games are also similar films Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them is comparable to as they are similar 12A films with similar audience demographics. Also showing the different a mid-November opening has without having holidays.
| The Hunger Games | 23 March 2012 | £4.47m | 18.7% | £23.8m |
| The Hunger Games: Catching Fire | 21 November 2013 | £12.19m | 37.8% | £32.2m |
| The Hunger Games Mockingjay Part 1 | 20 November 2014 | £12.64m | 40.9% | £30.84m |
| The Hunger Games Mockingjay Part 2 | 19 November 2015 | £11.24m | 38.9% | £28.86m |
- Andre Rieu’s Christmas Concert 2016 – CinemaLive
Andre Rieu’s second concert film of the year after his Maastricht Concert opened with £1,408,251 in July which was up 23% from his 2015 concert.
With cinema tickets, up to double regular price tickets for Event Cinema screenings, it’s impossible to compare them with other releases; Andre Rieu’s Christmas Concert 2016 has two screening over the weekend which should see it taking over £1m.
Opening US Friday
- Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them – Warner
Almost 15 years ago, to the date, the first Harry Potter film was released November 16th, 2001 and 5 years after what most beloved was the last Harry Potter film, Deathly Hallows Part 2 the phenomenon that is Harry Potter is still as strong as it ever was. A year after Deathly Hallows Part 2 was released the books had sold more than 450 million making them the best-selling book series in history. While the eight films have taken $2.39 billion in the US and $7.72 billion globally.
As with many film franchises today Harry Potter had an extended universe which was seen by the release of several short books released in 2001 first being Fantastic Beast and Where to Find Them and Quidditch Through the Ages and this year J.K. Rowling also released three new e-books. In 2011 Rowling also launched Pottermore and in July 2016 Harry Potter and the Cursed Child two-part stage play opened in London and is set to open in New York next year; 2 million copies of the play’s script was sold in the first two days in the US and Canada with 847,885 sold in the UK in the first week.
During a fan event, last month J.K Rowling surprised everyone announcing that the planned trilogy of films will be five; likely to be released over alternative years over the next 10 years similar to Harry Potter films.
| OWE | 2WE | 2WE total | Final BO | ||
| HP and the Sorcerer’s Stone | 16 Nov 2001 | $90.29m | $57.48m | $186.9m | $317.57m |
| HP and the Chamber of Secrets | 15 Nov 2002 | $88.35m | $42.22m | $148.3m | $261.98m |
| HP and the Prisoner of Azkaban | 4 June 2004 | $93.68m | $34.9m | $157.9m | $249.54m |
| HP and the Goblet of Fire | 18 Nov 2005 | $102.68m | $54.72m | $201.1m | $290.54m |
| HP and the Order of the Phoenix | 11 July 2007 | $77.11m | $32.51m | $207.8m | $292.0m |
| HP and the Half-Blood Prince | 15 July 2009 | $77.83m | $29.46m | $221.2m | $301.95m |
| HP and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 | 19 Nov 2010 | $125.01m | $49.08m | $219.1m | $295.98m |
| HP and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 | 15 July 2011 | $169.18m | $47.42m | $273.5m | $381.01m |
The first teaser trailer was released during MTV Movie Awards in April 2016 in September the final trailer was released which became the most viewed trailer of the year to date. In October was a global fan event featuring stars of the film and got to see the first seven minutes of the film.
Early buzz from screenings on November 5th was positive but must be taken with a grain of salt as was a similar reaction to Batman Vs Superman: Dawn of Justice and Suicide Squad; received its world premiere in New York on November 10th with its UK premiere November 15th.
Many were surprised with the low early tracking about $68-85m would look low compared with later Harry Potter films but Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them needs to be seen similar to Star Wars: Rogue One. While both might be part of existing series are new stories with mostly new characters so can’t be compared directly with films that came before which is how The Hobbit films played compared to The Lord of the Rings films.
The publicity machine over the weeks since has gotten into fifth gear over the last few weeks and only must compare it to Doctor Strange was tracking to open with similar box office but ended up opening with $85m which is what Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them will also likely open to.
| OWE | 2WE | 2WE total | Final BO | ||
| Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey | 14 Dec 2012 | $84.61m | $36.88m | $150.04m | $303.0m |
| Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug | 13 Dec 2013 | $73.64m | $31.5m | $127.55m | $258.36m |
| Hobbit: The Battle of the 5 Armies | 17 Dec 2014 | $54.72m | $40.91m | $168.01m | $255.11m |
The Hobbit Trilogy films took $816m in the US and $2.935 billion globally.
| OWE | 2WE | 2WE total | Final BO | ||
| LOTR: The Fellowship of the Ring | 19 Dec 2001 | $47.21m | $38.69m | $155.86m | $313.36m |
| LOTR: The Two Towers | 18 Dec 2002 | $62.01m | $48.87m | $200.05m | $339.78m |
| LOTR: The Return of the King | 17 Dec 2003 | $72.62m | $50.59m | $222.26m | $377.02m |
The Lord of the Rings trilogy took $1.03 billion in the US and $2.911 billion globally.
The Hunger Games film series could also be comparable the four films took $1.45 billion in the US and $2.96 billion globally.
| The Hunger Games | 23 March 2012 | $102.6m | 36.4% | $281.7m |
| The Hunger Games: Catching Fire | 22 November 2013 | $121.8m | 36.1% | $337.8m |
| The Hunger Games Mockingjay Part 1 | 21 November 2014 | $158.1m | 37.2% | $424.6m |
| The Hunger Games Mockingjay Part 2 | 20 November 2015 | $152.5m | 37.3% | $408.1m |
- The Edge of Seventeen – STX Entertainment
Coming of age comedy drama starring Hailee Steinfeld, Blake Jenner, Woody Harrelson and Kyra Sedgwick and directed by Kelly Fremon Craig.
Received its world premiere at the Toronto Film Festival receiving critical acclaim being described as a John Hughes style coming of age female drama; produced by James. L. Brooks most famous now for The Simpsons made classics Terms of Endearment, Broadcast News and As Good as It Gets but his recent films apart from As Good AAs it Gets have disappointed I’ll Do Anything, Spanglish and How Do You Know his last film released in 2010 which is probably now more better known as Jack Nicholson’s last acting role.
With positive reviews, an opening of $8-10m could be likely if cinemagoers are able to discover it.
- Bleed for This – Open Road
Biographical boxing film starring Miles Teller, Aaron Eckhart, Katey Sagal, Ciarán Hinds and Ted Levine and directed by Ben Younger based on the life of former world champion boxer Vinny Paz; had world premiere at the Telluride Film Festival receiving mixed reviews also screened at Toronto Film Festival and has the UK premiere at London Film Festival.
- Nocturnal Animals – Focus
Drama thriller starring Amy Adams, Jake Gyllenhaal, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Michael Shannon, Isla Fisher, Armie Hammer and Laura Linney and directed and written by Tom Ford, based on the 1993 novel Tony and Susan by Austin Wright; received its world premiere at the Venice Film Festival with screenings at Toronto and London Film Festivals; receiving critical acclaim after Venice screening with acting performances praised.
Tom Ford’s directional debut A Single Man opened on 9 screens in December 2009 opening with $217,332 having a slow expansion going on to take $917m; Nocturnal Animals will open on 36 screens which are slightly strange to open on so many screens on its initial limited release.
Normally would expect a more limited opening for a film like this but this is similar to Hell Or High Water in August which opened in 32 screens opening with $621,329 received rave reviews expanded far too quickly staying in the top ten for only 2 weeks; Queen of Katwe was similar in September in 52 screens having a disappointing opening of $304,933 which gave it little chance of success going wide the following weekend; Denial also in September originally opened on 5 screens expanding to 31 and 96 screens over following two weeks but then expanded to 648 screens in week 4 which was far too big a jump giving it no room for further expansion.
Studios seem to regularly open critically acclaim films far too wide on limited release and then expand far too quickly audiences need time to discover these films as with so many films opening each week these films take much longer for audiences to discover them.
- Manchester by the Sea – Roadside Attractions
Drama starring Casey Affleck, Michelle Williams, Kyle Chandler and Gretchen Mol and directed by Kenneth Lonergan; premiered at Sundance Film Festival with Amazon Studios acquired US rights for $10m with Roadside Attractions announced in March would distribute theatrically.
Received screenings at Telluride, Toronto and London Film Festivals gaining universal critical acclaim with Casey Affleck performance seen as a potential Best Actor award nominee.
In 2014 was announced Matt Damon would direct the Kenneth Lonergan script and star but due to scheduling issues left the directing duties to Kenneth Lonergan staying on as the producer with Casey Affleck replacing him; they previously worked together on the 2011 film Margaret.
- Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk – Sony Pictures (expansion)
War drama based on the novel by Ben Fountain starring Joe Alwyn, Kristen Stewart, Garrett Hedlund, Vin Diesel, Steve Martin and Chris Tucker and directed by Ang Lee; opens in limited release this weekend before opening wide next weekend.
It’s Ang Lee’s first film since 2012’s Life of Pi opened with $22.4m taking $124.9m; was nominated for 11 Oscars winning 4, Best Director, Best Cinematography, Best Score and Best Visual Effects. While Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk was originally seen as a potential award contender it could open with similar box office as Life of Pi or could suffer a similar fate as Sony Pictures The Walk last year which had a limited opening but was dead before expanding the following weekend.
Received its world premiere at the New York Film Festival in October screened in 4K 3D 120 FPS the format the film was shot in but will only be screened in two cinemas in the US in this format.
Received mixed reviews when it was screened in 4K 3D 120 FPS while critics praised the film and performances had issues with the format but as the film will only be seen in two cinemas in this format it should be seen how mainstream audiences will watch it. As the film incorporates America’s two favourite themes American football and the military which you would think would mean should play to a wide demographic and a strong alternative to other films released
Many had similar issues with The Hobbit trilogy which was shot at 48 FPS which looked too real almost like watching a computer game but audiences are seemly more accepting watching fantasy in non-standard formats as they will probably be with the Avatar sequels which James Cameron has said want to shoot in this format.