1. Downtown Abbey – £3,280,442 – £13,162,925

Down 36.6% in its second weekend; would normally expect a film like Downton Abbey to hold slightly better than it did as other British based films like Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again or Bridget Jones’s Baby.

Took £9,882,483 in its opening week taking 52.4% (£5,180,865) Fri-Sun and £4,701,618 Mon-Thurs; had the 9^th biggest 7-day box office of 2019.

182^nd biggest 7 day opening between Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me and Austin Powers in Goldmember; but 125 of those films had previews inflating their 7-day box opening would see Downton Abbey had the 59^th biggest 7 day opening.

178^th biggest second weekend between Taken 3 and The Sixth Sense (close to Darkest Hour, Hot Fuzz, War Horse and A Star Is Born) and 264^th biggest inflation inflated second weekend between Enchanted and Scooby-Doo Too (close to Gone Girl, The Girl on the Train, Ocean’s Twelve and Moulin Rouge).

Universal Pictures UK 51^st biggest opening between Fast & Furious and Atonement (close to Yesterday, Captain Phillips, Get Out and Victoria and Abdul) and 57th biggest inflation inflated between Wanted and Inglourious Basterds.

Downton Abbey has overtaken total box office of 2001’s Gosford Park (£12.3m) Downton Abbey was originally conceived as a spinoff of Gosford Park but was set several decades later.  Has also overtaken totals of 2007’s Atonement (£12.4m) and will shortly overtake 1996’s Sense and Sensibility (£13.6m) and 2005’s Pride & Prejudice (£14.6m).

Often feel-good British films have small second weekend drops and some even increase box office due to strong word of mouth

2012’s The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel increased 5.4% taking £2,342,095 and £7,014,101 34.5% of £20,308,480 total

2017’s Murder on the Orient Express dropped 12.2% taking £4,376,429 and £12,989,387 54.3% of £23,900,453

2016’s Bridget Jones’s Baby dropped 20.4% taking £6,453,799 and £21,219,529 44.1% of £48,150,737

2013’s Philomena dropped 6.7% taking £1,407,318 and £4,762,182 45.4% of £10,470,225

2010’s Nanny McPhee & the Big Bang increased 0.5% taking £2,600,678 and £7,151,968 43.6% of £16,379,041

2006’s The Queen increased 6.1% £908,295 taking £2,658,523 28.3% of £9,381,693

2003’s Calendar Girls increased 5.3% £1,855,986 taking £5,679,683 28.1% of £20,174,133

37.3%+ 2015’s The Second-Best Exotic Marigold Hotel opening £3,771,852 taking £15,575,797

Opened 28.1%+ 2016’s Absolutely Fabulous: The Movie opening £4,042,959 (taking £15,297,486)

September has been a strong date to open British based films including

2017 Victoria and Abdul taking £9,434,937; 2016 – Bridget Jones’s Baby taking £48,150,737

2015 Legend taking £18,202,111; 2011- Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy taking £14,133,500

2006 – The Queen taking £9,381,693; 2003 Calendar Girls taking £20,174,133

While younger audiences will rush out to see the latest shinny new film over its opening weekend the grey pound is much more loyal and lucrative, and they also go to the cinema as much during the week as the weekend; 2017’s Murder on the Orient Express took £8,612,958 in its opening 7 days taking 42% of its box office (£3,627,358) Mon- Thurs.

7.6m watched the first episode of the first series in 2010 on ITV, 9m watched the first episodes of season two and season three, 9.2m watched first episode of series 4 and 8.4m watch first episode of series 5. The final episode of Downtown Abbey was broadcast on ITV1 on Christmas Day 2015 with an audience of 6.9m with another 4m watching on catchup with a total of 10.9m. Was the most watched TV programme on Christmas Day, the first time ITV had managed to do so  in 15 years.

Since the final episode was broadcast on ITV on Christmas Day 2015 had been rumours of a spinoff film, in July 2018 it was announced a film would be made and Universal Pictures would release the film worldwide.

Downtown Abbey is still very popular ITV4 have been showing all episodes every evening for the last few weeks. Universal Pictures acquired British production company Carnival Films who made Downtown Abbey the TV series and also produced the film. While they have had strong success making TV series over the last 41 years Downtown Abbey is their third feature film, their other two 1997’s Firelight and 1991’s Under Suspicion were far from successful.

Maybe the warm sunny weather over the Friday/Saturday saw Downton Abbey and other films perform slightly lower than they might have done, but weather was cooler and wetter on Sunday as it will be for the next week or so.

With limited grey pound competition over the coming weeks Downton Abbey should take upwards of £30m with Universal Pictures surely announcing a sequel and a spinoff extended universe?

2. Ad Astra – £2,265,387  – NE  

Taking £570,000 from previews on Wednesday and Thursday

Had the 616^th biggest opening in the UK between Four Christmases and SpongeBob Movie: Sponge out of Water (close to A.I. (opened same weekend 18 years ago), District 9, After Earth and Starship Troopers); 841^st biggest inflation inflated opening between SpongeBob Movie: Sponge out of Water and Knocked Up (close to The Island, Molly’s Game, 28 Weeks Later and Predator 2)

Had the 27^th biggest opening of 2019 between Instant Family and Annabelle Comes Home and was 20^th Century Fox’s 109^th biggest opening in the UK between Cheaper By The Dozen 2 and What Lies Beneath (close to Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Moulin Rouge, Chronicle and There’s Something About Mary).

Its Brad Pitt’s biggest opening in the UK since 2014’s Fury opened £2.69m including previews taking £8.34m; 2004’s Troy £6,017,523 (taking £17,885,742) is his biggest opening in the UK.

Opened 63.7% less than 2013’s Gravity £6,238,375 (£619,086 previews) taking £32,692,161

57.8% less than 2014’s Interstellar £5,378,220 taking £20,066,636

65.3% less than 2015’s The Martian £6,531,734 (£1,630,490 previews) taking £23,578,878

22.5% less than 2016’s Arrival £2,924,059 taking £8,994,774

62.6% less than 2017’s Blade Runner 2049 £6,071,625 (£858,095 previews) taking £18,820,009

6.2% less than 2018’s First Man £2,415,330 taking £7,360,906

Originally set for January 2019 release but then was moved to May and was expected to premiere at the Cannes Film Festival but was pushed back to September so James Gray could have more time to complete the film. (he said during an interview at the Venice Film Festival he only completed the film a few days before its Venice premiere).

Had its world premiere at the Venice Film Festival in August receiving critical acclaim as they did with Blade Runner 2049 but did feel audiences would be much less positively (received B- CinemaScore in the US but 84% Rotten Tomatoes score). While comparisons were made with Steven Soderbergh 2003’s Solaris starring George Clooney, similarly, stunning to look at but so slow and dull to watch, instead of 20th Century Fox’s other hugely successful recent sci-fi film The Martian (directed by Ridley Scott and starring Matt Damon). Strange coincidence that all three actors starred in Ocean’s 11 trilogy directed by Steven Soderbergh.

Solaris opened February 2003 with £313,804 from 153 screens taking £663,508

Has also similarities to 1997’s Contact which took £5,433,609

While 20th Century Fox have had success over recent years targetting older demographics including

20018’s Bohemian Rhapsody opened £9,530,463 taking £54,951,548

2018’s The Favourite opened £3,973,975 taking £16,965,411

2018’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri opened £2,361,782 taking £15,238,741

2017’s Murder on the Orient Express opened £4,985,600 taking £23,900,453

2016’s The Revenant opened £5,235,851 taking £21,759,689

2014’s Gone Girl opened £4,109,628 taking £22,125,201

2012’s Life of Pi opened £3,610,604 taking £28,726,668

2012’s Prometheus opened £6,236,580 taking £24,628,830

2012’s The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel opened £2,222,051 taking £20,308,480

2011’s Black Swan opened £2,762,429 taking £15,708,154

2006’s The Devil Wears Prada opened £3,267,580 taking £13,681,185

2001’s Moulin Rouge opened £2,403,378 taking £17,934,410

James Gray’s previous films have failed to find audiences in the UK with 2016’s The Lost City of Z taking only £697,000.

Ad Astra is likely to come short of £10m at the UK box office as is likely to drop 50%+ in its second weekend due to having two days of previews inflated its opening.

3. It Chapter 2 – £1,387,429  – £16,191,137

Down 56.1% in its third weekend; another heavy drop in its third weekend due to Ad Astra and Rambo: Last Blood opening.

Has become the 14^th biggest film of 2019 between The Lego Movie: The Second Part and Yesterday

333^rd biggest film in the UK between Kung Fu Panda 2 and X-Men Origins: Wolverine and 457^th biggest inflation inflated between Sleepy Hollow and The Emperor’s New Groove (close to Waterworld, Trainspotting 2, The Village and World War Z).

54^th biggest Warner Bros film between Scooby-Doo Too and Ready Player One (close to The Bodyguard, The Matrix, Batman and Robin and 300) and 69^th biggest inflation inflated between The Final Destination and Ready Player One (close to Justice League, Mad Max: Fury Road, the Perfect Storm and Demolition Man).

Took 51.3% less than It Chapter One (£2,852,965) third weekend and 38.8% less (£26,451,709) 81.8% of £32,340,000 total; If It Chapter 2  holds similar to It Chapter One will come short of taking £20m

2019 has been a very disappointing year for Warner Bros with It Chapter Two already their second biggest film of the year after The Lego Movie 2 (£18.6m) also took about 30% less than the first film).

Warner Bros will be hoping after all the critical acclaim and strong buzz Joker has generated at Venice and Toronto Film Festivals it will also bring out cinemagoers in two weeks’ time as The Kitchen opens this weekend and The Goldfinch next weekend after both flopped in the US are unlikely to do much better in the UK, which leaves Doctor Sleep as their other major release for 2019 opening Halloween/Brexit day.

Warner Bros will be hoping for a better 2020 but have a much stronger slate as do all of Disney rivals who seemed to of waved the white flag this year as none of their rivals have managed to get close to Disney this year.

4. Rambo: Last Blood – £1,075,071  – NE

1134th biggest opening in the UK between Layer Cake and Hellboy

Opening similar to 2008’s Rambo £1,247,195 taking £2,927,437

Despite strong buzz from the trailer released in May comparing it to Logan and Unforgiven there hasn’t been the same interest in Rambo as there was with Sylvester Stallone’s other iconic role Rocky, having both box office and critical success with Creed and its sequel. While Rambo: Last Blood was slated by critics and failed to find an audience, it didn’t help that Ad Astra opened against it and the two male demographical films cannibalized each other.

While Lionsgate has had success with Angel Has Fallen (third Olympus Has Fallen) last month,  Rambo: Last Blood repeats the failure they had earlier this year trying to reboot Hellboy. The marketplace is very tough for independent studios trying to either launch sequels and reboots to existing film series or reimaginations as they also had trouble rebooting Power Rangers and My Little Pony in 2017 having hopes to make several films.

STX had similar troubles making poor man’s versions of Trolls and The Lego Movie with Uglydolls and Playmobil: The Movie but then have had success with Hustlers as it was a genre of films studios weren’t making anymore.

1988’s Rambo 3 opened £1,793,805 taking £3,287,405

2010’s The Expendables opened £3,935,700 taking £9,630,137

2012’s The Expendables 2 opened £1,985,082 taking £5,938,099

2014’s The Expendables 3 opened £1,689,927 taking £3,741,848

With poor buzz Rambo: Last Blood won’t last long in cinemas and be out of the top 10 within a couple of weeks.

Lionsgate will be hoping for better things with Roland Emmerich’s Midway, Rian Johnson’s Knives Out (received critical acclaim at film festivals earlier this month) and Bombshell (excellent first trailer was recently released).

Thanks to holding on to UK rights of John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum (unlike the first two films which they sold on to Warner Bros) 2019 will be a far better year than 2018 but still far from the success they had in 2017 mostly thanks to La La Land. It shows how one film can be the difference between a good or a bad year for an independent distributor and the risks are so huge over the films they acquire, as on paper they will look very good, but its only when an audience sees it that you know if you have a winner or not.

5. Hustlers – £1,056,801  –  £3,321,448

Down 21.9% in its second weekend

759^th biggest second weekend between Insidious 2 and 28 Days Later (close to Step Up 3, Road to Perdition, Spice World and Bad Teacher) and 924^th biggest second weekend between Piranha 3-D and The Ugly Truth (close to 13 Going On 30, Baywatch, Miss Congeniality 2 and The Heat).

Had STX biggest ever second weekend beating last years I Feel Pretty (£931,614 taking £3,097,220 57.5% of £5,384,881 total)

Despite being a stripper film Hustlers is very much a film about women, starring women for women. More targetting the Magic Mike audience than the Striptease and Showgirls male audience.

2012’s Magic Mike took £8,111,970; 2015’s Magic Mike XXL took £6,707,029 and 2016’s Bad Moms took £8,141,704.

Distributors used to date films locally but now majority of studio films open day and date, while that might work for most it doesn’t when a film opens ahead as Downtown Abbey did this weekend as it meant were both targetting the female audience. Last year Warner Bros opened Crazy Rich Asians three weeks after the US opening with  £1,599,858 6% of its $26,510,140 US opening, which also starred Constance Wu.

While Hustlers probably has the best last line of a film this year with Jennifer Lopez’s character Ramona saying, “It’s all a strip club,”….”You have people tossing the money and people doing the dance.” Jennifer Lopez is generating award buzz for her performance but it’s more likely to be Golden Globe rather than Oscar.

The film has been described as a modern-day Robin Hood story, taking money from the rich banker who “stole” from the poor, probably why the film is connecting so well with audiences after films likes of The Wolf of Wall Street and The Big Short glamourized what the bankers did.

STX International launched two years ago in the UK but their biggest film to date was last years I Feel Pretty taking £5.38m Hustlers should become their biggest ever film in the UK.

STX remaining films of the year are horror Countdown opening in October and action thriller 21 Bridges in November. 

UK box office in detail

This weekend’s top 10 box office took £10,591,748 down 12.8% from last weekend £12,155,175

The weekend admissions 1,410,353 down 12.8% from last weekend 1,618,532; average ticket £7.51 up 5% from last year’s £7.22 and Applaudience estimate ticket price of £10.28

12 films opened at weekend taking (£3,820,752); Ad Astra 59.3% (£2,265,387); Rambo: Last Blood 28.1% (£1,075,071); The Farewell 5.4% (£207,356); remaining 8 films shared 7.1% (£272,938);

Top three took 65.4% (£6,933,258) of the top 10; Downtown Abbey 30.9% (£3,280,442);  Ad Astra 21.4% (£2,265,387); It Chapter Two 13.1% (£1,387,429);

Down 2.9% from 2018: (£10,913,234); The House with a Clock in its Walls (£3,370,591); A Simple Favour (£1,621,900); Mile 22 (£795,888); The Little Stranger (£300,089); #1 The House with a Clock in its Walls £3,370,591 1st week 541 screens (30.8% of top 10)

Down 26.6% from 2017: (£14,426,113); Kingsman: The Golden Circle (£8,525,664); Maze (£123,985); Borg vs. McEnroe (£101,918); Lawrence of Arabia – 70mm (Re: 2017) (£9,359); #1 Kingsman: The Golden Circle £8,525,664 1^st week 602 down (59.1% of the top 10)

Down 19.6% from 2016: (£13,181,394); Bridget Jones’s Baby (£8,111,077); Blair Witch (£959,401); The Beatles: Eight Days a Week – The Touring Years (£654,726); The Infiltrator (£370,439); Hunt For the Wilderpeople (£167,646); #1 Bridget Jones’s Baby £8,111,077 1^st week 641 screens (61.5% of the top 10)

Up 13.6% from 2015; (£9,319,305); Everest (£3,160,154); A Walk in the Woods (£252,175); The Battle Of Britain At 75 (Concert) (£225,942); Bill (£221,807); The D Train (£8,516); #1 Legend £2,446,860 2^nd week 544 screens 53% drop (26.2% of top 10)

Up 73.3% from 2014: (£6,109,464); A Walk Among the Tombstones (£1,317,948); The Riot Club (£496,647); 20,000 Days on Earth (£356,467); Magic in the Moonlight (£273,998); The Giver (£186,989); Think Like a Man too (£131,138); Wish I Was Here (£27,739); #1 The Boxtrolls £1,333,137 2^nd week 509 screens (33% drop (21.8% of top 10)

Up 60.8% from 2013: (£6,586,232); Diana (£623,051); R.I.P.D. (£506,521); The Call (£409,975); Cold comes the Night (£4,833); #1 Rush £1,336,449 2^nd week (1^st #1) 464 screens (20.2% of top 10)

Up 63.5% from 2012 (£6,476,971); Killing Them Softly (£955,506); The House at the End of the Street (£796,041); Savages (£379,898); Now is Good (£317,451); Intouchables (£109,328); Raiders of the Lost Ark (Re: 2012) (£73,558); Tower Block (£36,371); Hysteria (£9,903); #1 ParaNorman £1,219,194 2^nd week (1^st #1) 484 screens 12% drop (18.8% of top 10)

Up 42.5% from 2011 (£7,431,246); Crazy, Stupid, Love (£860,112); Warrior (£808,410); Drive (£607,454); Killer Elite (£481,143); Jurassic Park (Re: 2011) (£245,422); Soul Surfer (£47,293); Page One: Inside the New York Times (£6,757); #1 Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy £2,104,762 2^nd week 422 screens 25% drop (28.3% of top 10)

Up 73.1% from 2010: (£6,120,627); The Other Guys (£1,980,601); Devil (£807,292); Just Wright (£82,513); I’m Still Here (£22,730); Grease Sing-along (£15,701); #1 The Other Guys £1,980,601 1^st week 441 screens (32.5% of top 10)

Up 83.6% from 2009; (£5,767,172); Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs (£1,583,544); Gamer (£641,568); The Firm (£310,060); Away We Go (£250,211); #1 Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs £1,583,544 1^st week 438 screens (27.4% of top 10)

Up 59.1% from 2008; (£6,654,546); Tropic Thunder (£2,483,271); Linha De Passe (£34,156); The Wave (£27,981); #1 Tropic Thunder £2,483,271 1^st week 460 screens (37.3% of top 10)

Up 63.7% from 2007: (£6,468,802); I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry (£1,090,831); Death Proof (£407,525); A Mighty Heart (£153,028); As You Like It (£9,444); Evening (£20,836); Clubland (£1,808); #1 Run, Fat Boy, Run £1,206,177 3^rd week 401 screens 22% drop (18.6% of top 10)

Up 102.6% from 2006; (£5,225,385); The Children of Men (£1,284,254); Trust the Man (£280,929); Dirty Sanchez (£257,034); Clerks II (£223,046); #1 The Children of Men £1,284,254 1^st week 370 screens (24.5% of top 10)

Up 61.7% from 2005 (£6,549,677); Pride and Prejudice (£2,529,947); Wolf Creek (£554,618); Must Love Dogs (£142,199); #1 Pride and Prejudice £2,529,947 1^st week 397 screens (38.6% of top 10)

Up 68.7% from 2004 (£6,276,762); Collateral (£2,238,200); Trauma (£144,148); Ae Fond Kiss (£106,366); #1 Collateral £2,238,200 1^st week 450 screens (35.6% of top 10)

Up 37.3% from 2003 (£7,710,363); The Italian Job (£2,294,027); Underworld (£1,487,839); Le Divorce (£93,061); Raising Victor Vargas (£50,672); #1 The Italian Job £2,294,027 1^st week 428 screens (29.7% of top 10)

Up 52.7% from 2002 (£6,934,104); My Big Fat Greek Wedding (£1,503,436); Swimfan (£396,425); Road To Perdition (platform) (£256,035); #1 Signs £2,657,379 2^nd week 440 screens 29% drop (38.3% of top 10)

Up 53.6% from 2001 (£6,893,581); A.I. (£2,285,786); Crazy/Beautiful (£137,017); #1 A.I. £2,285,786 1^st week 428 screens (33.1% of top 10);

Next weekend in 2018: (£7,469,063); Night School (£1,596,378); The Wife (£392,635); #1 Night School £1,596,378 1^st week 452 screens (21.35% of top 10)

Also opened

• The Farewell – Entertainment Films

Opened with £207,456 from 99 screens

Entertainment Film opting to open limited wide and then expand this weekend with strong word of mouth and being trailered with Hustlers and Downton Abbey. Entertainment Films have heavily pushed the film as they always do with their films with TV and radio advertising.

Received its world premiere the 2019 Sundance Film Festival where it was acquired by A24 for $7m worldwide and was one of only a few Sundance Film Festival acquisitions that was successful this year taking $16.1m in the US. So many films acquired at the Sundance Film Festival fail to find an audience when they are released several months later as Blinded By the Light and Late Night.

 

• The Kitchen – Warner Bros

Opened with £107,929

Adult adaptations of unknown comic-books have had mixed success at the box office over the years while RED was successful The Losers and Jonah Hex were not. While Melissa McCarthy received critical acclaim for her performance in Can You Ever Forgive Me? it wasn’t a success at the box office and the least said about The Happytime Murders the better.

Received poor reviews in the US and opened poorly opening with $5.5m in August taking $11.94m to date dropping over 2,000 screens in its third weekend. There is little point in releasing the film in the UK as it won’t find an audience but is only getting a token theatrical release to qualify for its  lucrative Sky TV pay deal as so many other films that get pointless theatrical releases.

In 2010 similar adult comic-book adaptation of Jonah Hex opened with £36,456 after opening with $5.3m which was similar to The Kitchen $5.52m.

This weekend Warner Bros release The Goldfinch which was seen ahead of its Toronto Film Festival premiere as a potential award contender, but after poor reviews and a poor opening two weeks ago will likely do similar her this weekend.

 

UK Box Office Top 10

US Box office

• Downton Abbey – Focus Features

Opened with $31.03m; received positive reviews (84% Rotten Tomatoes) and A CinemaScore

Had the biggest opening for Focus Features overtaking 2015’s Insidious Chapter 3 ($22.69m) having their 6^th widest opening in 3,079 screens and over the next few weeks will become their biggest film ever in the US (currently 2005’s Brokeback Mountain $83.1m); 50 Shades of Grey was developed as a Focus Features film but moved to Universal Pictures close to its release date.

Had the 22^nd biggest opening of 2019 between Dark Phoenix and Men in Black International.

Ahead of release as Hustlers last weekend while it might have been tracking to open in low teens the industry continues to underestimate the grey dollar and female audiences despite them being probably more loyal than the fickle younger male audiences. Advance  bookings opened a month ago and Fandango reported sales were stronger than  Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again ($34.95m opening) and  Once Upon a Time in Hollywood ($41.08m opening) so Downton Abbey opening with $31m should have been such a surprise especially after last weeks opening of Hustlers.

Opening Ad Astra against Rambo: Last Blood was likely to see those two films to cannibalize allowing Downton Abbey to open bigger than expected due to the TV series getting strong ratings when it as broadcast in the US as it had in the UK.

With limited competition for its target demographic over the next few weeks Downton Abbey should hold well over its coming weeks

Downtown Abbey could be a spinoff to Julian Fellowes 2001 film Gosford Park opened limited $241,219 taking $41,308,615

The first series broadcast on PBS In January 2012 had 4.2m viewers,  the second series  averaged 5.4m viewers; the final episode of Downtown Abbey was broadcast on PBS in March 2016 with an audience of 9.6m; it was sold to over 220 territories by the time of the fifth series in 2013 was viewed by an estimated global audience of 120 million.

Comparisons include

3008’s Sex and the City opening $57,038,404 taking $152,647,258

2001’s Bridget Jones’s Diary opening $10,733,933 taking $71,543,427

2017’s Murder on the Orient Express opening $28,681,472 taking $102,826,543  

2015’s The Second-Best Exotic Marigold Hotel opening $8,540,370 taking $33,078,266     

2014’s The Grand Budapest Hotel opened $811,166 on limited taking $59,301,324

2012’s The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel opened $737,051 on limited taking $46,412,041

2008’s Mamma Mia! opened $27,751,240 taking $144,130,063   

Took $10m from 32 territories and $30.8m total and $61.8m worldwide

 

• Ad Astra – 20th Century Fox

Opened with $19.01m; received positive reviews (82% Rotten Tomatoes) and B- CinemaScore

Had the 34^th biggest opening of 2019 between Annabelle Comes Home and Rambo: Last Blood and third biggest 20^th Century Fox film opening this year after Dark Phoenix and Alita: Battle Angel

Took $6.6m from IMAX worldwide; $4M from 388 IMAX screens in US taking 20% of its opening and took $2.6m internationally from 296 IMAX screens.

It was always likely as Bladerunner 2049 the critical acclaim for Ad Astra would alienate mainstream audiences as 2002’s Solaris did become a $100m art-house sci-fi film despite starring Brad Pitt as Solaris starred George Clooney.

Three years ago Variety gave reasons why Arrival had a successful opening with $24m; the first was sci-fi isn’t just for boys but as female audiences had Hustlers and Downton Abbey were unlikely to seek out Ad Astra even with Brad Pitt.  Ad Astra budget is rumoured to be up to $100m while Arrival was less than half and similarly premiered at the Venice Film Festival with critical acclaim. The problem with Ad Astra it was on cinephiles radar but not regular cinemagoers.

The problem for Ad Astra was having got Venice Film Festival premiere September 20th was the only date it could open as Oct/Nov was out with Joker, Gemini Man, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, Terminator Dark Fate, Ford V Ferrari Frozen and Ad Astra needed 2 week gap between both It Chapter 2 and Joker so meant opening against Rambo: Last Blood.

Had Ad Astra opened in January as originally planned would have opened against Glass while had it opened in May would have opened against Aladdin but both dates were very unlikely despite Ad Astra not officially moving from its May release date until May.

Ad Astra had similarities to Solaris opened November 2002 with $6,752,722 taking $14,973,382 and Contact opened July 1997 with $20,584,908 taking $100,920,329

While Grown up autumn released sci-fi films have been popular at the box over recent years

Gravity opened October 2013 with $55,785,112 taking $274,092,705        

Interstellar opened November 2014 with $47,510,360 taking $188,020,017           

The Martian opened October 2015 with $54,308,575 taking $228,433,663

Arrival opened November 2016 with $24,074,047 taking $100,546,139    

Blade Runner 2049 opened October 2017 with $32,753,122 taking $92,054,159  

First Man opened October 2018 with $16,006,065 taking $44,936,545     

While 20th Century Fox have had success over recent years targetting older demographics including

20018’s Bohemian Rhapsody opened $51,061,119 taking $216,428,042

2017’s Murder on the Orient Express opened $28,681,472 taking $102,826,543

2016’s The Revenant opened limited $474,560 (wide $39,826,840) taking $183,637,894

2016’s Hidden Figures limited $515,499  (wide $22,800,057) taking $169,607,287

2014’s Gone Girl opened $37,513,109 taking $167,767,189           

2012’s Life of Pi opened $22,451,514 taking $124,987,023

2012’s Prometheus opened $51,050,101 taking $126,477,084      

2012’s The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel opened limited $737,051 (wide $6,383,203) taking $46,412,041

2011’s Black Swan opened limited $1,443,809 (wide $6,254,986) taking $106,954,678

2006’s The Devil Wears Prada opened $27,537,244 taking $124,740,460 

2004’s I, Robot opened $52,179,887 taking $144,801,023               

2001’s Moulin Rouge opened limited $167,540 (wide $13,718,306) taking $57,386,607

As soon as Ad Astra was delayed from May to Fall it was always likely to be in trouble as there were very few options available, with It Chapter Two couldn’t opening first two weeks of September, but then October was out with Joker, Gemini Man and Disney moving Maleficent: Mistress of Evil to October. Only options other than September 20^th were next weekend which would have seen it open the week before Joker or October 25^th the week before Terminator: Dark Fate (Fox has international rights to) as November was out with Ford v. Ferrari along with Disney having Frozen 2 and December with Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker.

Many believe 20th Century Fox future of making original films is on the success of Ad Astra and Ford v Ferrari as Disney don’t take as many risks on original films as 20th Century Fox have done over the years as wouldn’t have made films like The Greatest Showman or Bohemian Rhapsody). There was a hope that Disney would use 20th Century Fox as they did with Touchstone Pictures making adult focussed films but there is a fear that it will be just used to make reimaginations for the library for Disney+.

The success of Ad Astra and Le Man’s 66 could be seen as referendums on the future of 20th Century Fox making original films. 

Opened with $26m from 44 territories and $45.2m total

• Rambo: Last Blood – Lionsgate

Opened with $18.87m; received poor reviews (27% Rotten Tomatoes) and B CinemaScore

The fifth Rambo film opening 27 years after First Blood (opening with $6,642,005 taking $47,212,904) the previous films have taken $294.1m in the US ($698m inflation inflated) and $728m worldwide.

Sylvester Stallone 43 films have taken $2.55bn in the US ($5.01bn inflation inflated) and $4.65bn worldwide.

2008’s Rambo opened with $18.2m taking $42.75m and Rambo: Last Blood was tracking to open with a similar amount (similar also to 1985’s Rambo: First Blood Part II $20.17m taking $150.41m

 

• It: Chapter Two – Warner Bros

Dropped 57.1% in its third weekend taking $17.01m and $178.92m;

It the 7^th biggest film of 2019 overtaking Us and John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum

Taking 32% less than 2017’s It Chapter One which took $60.1m in its second weekend and $218.81m 30% more than It Chapter Two.

It Chapter Two held  #1 for a second weekend but took only $7m more than Hustlers #2 compared with 2017’s It taking almost $45m more than American Assassin in second.

The two It films have taken $1.02bn worldwide

Was seen as a surprised that It: Chapter Two opened 26% lower than the first film but its drop was similar to Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom $148m Vs Jurassic World $208m and Fate of the Furious $98m Vs Furious 7 $147m, while Deadpool 2, Avengers: Age of Ultron, Harry Potter and Star Wars: The Last Jedi all dropped between 5% and 12%; while also many films open lower than tracking.

The divide between the megamovie box office and the rest has grown this year, is currently a $160m+ gap between #6 biggest film Aladdin $354.8m and #7 Us $175m, after It opened 26% lower than the original film it will be the first of several this fall that are likely to fill that gap with Joker, Gemini Man, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil and Terminator: Dark Fate most likely to join It.

Stephen King has published 54 novels including 7 under the name Richard Bachman, 6 non-fiction books and almost 200 short stories. Over 40 have been adapted into films taking over $1.63bn in the US and $2.04bn worldwide.

Took $21.3m from 78 territories (#1 in 52) taking $205.9m and $385.1m worldwide; #359 biggest film worldwide between Home Alone 2: Lost in New York and Hotel Transylvania; 15^th biggest worldwide in 2019 between Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood and John Wick: Chapter 3 — Parabellum; #76 biggest Warner Bros film worldwide between The Perfect Storm and Lethal Weapon; UK: $19.8m; Mexico: $19.6m; Russia: $16.1m; Germany: $15.5m; Brazil: $10.1m; Italy: $10m; Spain: $8.2m; Australia: $8m; France $7.4m; Indonesia: $5.3m; Korea: $4.2m; Peru: $3.8m

• Hustlers- STX

Dropped 49.2% in its second weekend taking $16.8m and $62.35m

A month before release Hustlers was tracking to open with $24m+ but opened 37% bigger having Jennifer Lopez’s biggest ever opening ahead of 2005’s Monster in Law $23.1m (taking $82.91m) and 2002’s Maid in Manhattan $18.71m (taking $94.1m). Her last film 2018’s Second Sight opened with $6.48m taking $39.28m (also from STX).

29 Jennifer Lopez films have taken $1.32bn in the US and $3.9bn worldwide; after a breakthrough performance in Steven Soderbergh’s Out of Sight in 1998 had several successes until 2003’s Gigli but despite 2005’s Monster in Law opening with $23.1m taking $82.93m her biggest films since have been vocally in Ice Age: Continental Drift and Home as she concentrated on her music career. Last Christmas she starred in Second Act while not a massive hit the Working Girl reboot was a return to rom coms she was made a decade earlier.

Constance Wu, Lili Reinhart, Jennifer Lopez and Cardi B have almost 275m followers on social media across Twitter, Instagram and Facebook. The film was tracking ahead of Ocean’s 8, A Star Is Born, Girls Trip, Crazy Rich Asians, Bad Moms and Magic Mike XXL; Constance Wu’s Crazy Rich Asians opened with $26.51m taking $174.52m

Hustlers opened similar to last year’s Ocean’s Eight with $41.6m taking $140.21m

90s stripper movies 1995’s Showgirls opened with $8.11m taking $20.35m; 1996’s Striptease opened with $12.32m taking $33.1m and $113.3m worldwide

STX has been trying to find its identity since launching in 2015, originally making horror, R-rated comedies and action films, but then as so many independent studios they started to run before they could walk trying to compete directly with the studios making inferior versions.  So many independent studios have tried to compete with studios and failed to do so, STX this year made and acquired inferior versions of Trolls (Uglydolls) and The Lego Movie (Playmobil: The Movie). Instead of trying to compete with studios make films that studios aren’t making anymore.

Opened with $4.6m from 15 territories (37% from UK $1.7m)

• The Goldfinch – Warner Bros

Dropped 71.6% in its second weekend taking $760,014 and $4.45m

Having the 79^th biggest second weekend drop between Supercross and Aqua Teen Hunger Force Colon Movie Film for Theatres (similar to Dark Phoenix 71.5%).

As with Dark Phoenix, The Goldfinch isn’t a terrible film as there are many far worse films, but this is the problem with the marketplace nowadays people go from one extreme to the other.

After dropping from #8 to #15 in its second weekend will drop even more this weekend as will likely lose 2,000+ screens  as The Kitchen did also in its third weekend last month. When a film like The Goldfinch loses screens so fast surely it should be allowed to have a much shorter theatrical window? How will exhibitors lose out if they have already dropped the film, surely if Warner Bros could release The Goldfinch after a month on VoD it would give them a chance to find an audience for the film, as there are people probably who would want to see it, but won’t be able to.

Always think of Paramount Pictures 2015 idea that a film would be released on VoD the week after a film drops below 1,000 screens so it’s then in exhibitors’ interest to keep films playing wide for longer but then a film like Once Upon a Time in Hollywood could be released o VoD in week 9 rather than week 16

Three years ago John Crowley directed the Oscar nominated Brooklyn opened on limited release with $187,281 and took $38.32m in the US and $62.1m worldwide.

• Fast & Furious: Hobbs & Shaw – Universal Pictures

Dropped 47.8% in its eighth weekend taking $1.45m and $170.6m

295^th biggest film in the US between Chicago and The Help and Universal Pictures 35^th biggest film between A Beautiful Mind and Bridesmaids

Fifth biggest Fast and Furious film in the US behind the four films Dwayne Johnson starred in (Furious 7, Fast & Furious 6, The Fate of the Furious and    Fast Five); Will Fast & Furious 9 be as successful without Dwayne Johnson next year?

Dwayne Johnson’s films have taken $3.575bn in the US and $10.54bn worldwide; Jumanji: The Next Level opens in December followed by Jungle Cruise next July.

The nine Fast and Furious films have taken $1.687bn in the US and $5.88bn worldwide; Fast & Furious 9 is set for release May 22^nd, 2020 and Fast & Furious 10 2^nd April 2021 but both will be without Dwayne Johnson.

Took $2.8m from 65 territories internationally and $750.1m worldwide; #102 biggest film worldwide between Shrek Forever After and X-Men: Days of Future Past and 9^th biggest international film of 2019 between Toy Story 4 and How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Hobbs & Shaw has overtaken Fast Five to become the fourth biggest Fast and Furious film globally  but will come short of Fast & Furious 6 ($788.7m); after Hobbs & Shaw has taken over $700m Universal Pictures will surely be dating Hobbs & Shaw 2 for summer 2022 very soon.

9^th biggest international Universal Pictures film between Despicable Me 2 and Fast and Furious 6 and 12^th biggest Universal Pictures film worldwide between Fast and Furious 6 and Sing.

• The Lion King – Disney

Dropped 26.6% in its tenth weekend taking $2.67m and $537.69m total

87^th biggest tenth weekend between Big and Something’s Gotta Give; #12 Aladdin (1992) ($6.318m); #50 The Greatest Showman ($3.41m); #56 Beauty and the Beast 1991 ($3.25m); #64 Aladdin ($3.03m); #66 The Lion King 1994 ($3.1m)

8^th biggest Disney film in the US between Incredibles 2 and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story and 12^th biggest film in the US between The Dark Knight and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story.

The Lion King was the 14th film to take over $500m at the US box office should be an amazing achievement for a film but as the original film took $313m in 1994 would be $700m+ inflation inflated its not as big as it looks.

Rather than exhibitors worrying about Netflix films shortened theatrical window should be more concerned with films like The Lion King (opening with $191.7m) and Avengers: Endgame (opening with $357.1m) as these films open big but then drop big  Avengers Endgame took 73%+ of total BO within 10 days while The Lion King took 66% of its total box office within 10 days.

The originally film took $422.78m (24th biggest film in the US between Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom and $803.2m Inflation inflated (20th biggest film in the US between Star Wars: Episode I: The Phantom Menace and The Sting).

The Lion King took over $1m at the US box office for 35 weeks (till February 1995) taking $312.85m; re-released in IMAX in 2002 taking $15.68m and in 2011 in 3D taking $94.24m with $422.78m total;

Globally took $968.5m 42nd biggest film worldwide between Despicable Me 2 and 2016’s The Jungle Book; would be about $2.5bn worldwide inflation inflated.

Decade or more ago $1bn worldwide was cool but with China inflating global BO now 42 members since 1993 as with $100m used to being sign of success both need to be doubled as should really be $1bn US and $3bn+ global club that Avengers Endgame and The Lion King should be members?

14 Disney reimaginations have taken $3.287bn in the US and $9.02n worldwide

Took $3.8m from 37 territories and $1.091bn total and $1.629bn worldwide #7 biggest between Jurassic World and Marvel’s The Avengers; China $120.4m; UK $91.3m; France $79m; Brazil $69.1m; Japan $60m; Germany $53.8m; Mexico $51.8m

The Lion King is the #4 highest grossing title of all time in EMEA; Disney and Fox now have the top 5 films of all-time in EMEA with Avatar, Titanic, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, The Lion King and Avengers: Endgame.

UK Box Office Predictions

With none of the new releases this weekend likely to enter the top five (The Goldfinch, Ready or Not, Hotel Mumbai and Don’t Let Go)  this weekend is likely to be similar to this weekend with Downton Abbey holding top spot for a third weekend.

As with other Sky Cinema releases despite positive reviews and Hotel Mumbai being heavily promoted it will only open in handful of cinemas as the major chains have refused to book Sky Cinema films as they won’t book Netflix. This is despite them happy to book event screenings of Sherlock and Doctor Who that were being simultaneously on BBC1. Sky Cinema is only available in 5m of the 30m homes in the UK, surely audiences should be given the option to see in in the cinema, especially this weekend with the other new releases this weekend unlikely to set the box office on fire.

Downton Abbey will hold #1 taking £2m-£2.5m with Ad Astra holding in second more due to It Chapter Two and Rambo: Last Blood dropping much more than having good legs. While due to the quiet weekend Ready Or Not and The Goldfinch will probably managed to squeeze into the top 10 for one week only. 

 

 

Opening in UK Next Week

• Joker – Warner Bros

Psychological thriller based on DC Comics characters, the first DC Black standalone films starring Joaquin Phoenix, Robert De Niro, Zazie Beetz, Frances Conroy, Brett Cullen, Marc Maron, Bill Camp, Shea Whigham, Glenn Fleshler, Douglas Hodge and Brian Tyree Henry and directed by Todd Phillips.

The film is an origin story of the Joker, a failed stand-up comedian who turns to a life of crime and chaos; Joker budget was only $55m less than a quarter of the budget most comic-book films are)

Todd Phillips started developing the film in 2016 inspired by graphic novel Batman: The Killing Joke and Martin Scorsese films; Joker received its world premiere at Venice International Film Festival in August (had an 8-minute standing ovation)  winning the Golden Lion and receiving critical acclaim especially for Joaquin Phoenix with many calling it an Oscar worthy (77% Rotten Tomatoes score).

Some have queried some of the reviews Rotten Tomatoes categorised as  negative were really positive and that MCU films reviewed positive reviews for similar reviews, as some believe there is biased towards MCU films. I do think often people go completely over the top with praise for MCU films as Black Panther wasn’t Oscar worthy, how it received Best Picture nomination but The Dark Knight didn’t was madness, as these films aren’t as good as the hype that surrounds, as these films are opening big but also dropping big so don’t have the legs that other comic-book films have had.

The first trailer was released in April (viewed over 8m times in a few hours) has been viewed over 60m times in YouTube and the final trailer was released in August viewed almost 38m titles.

Joker is a very different darker comic-book film R-rated dealing with mental illness generating controversy if it’s a sympathetic portrayal of a homicidal maniac (Hollywood Reporter article on September 16^th “In defence of Joker and its repulsive violence”.

While Deadpool was violent it was always comical with its R-rating but the violence in Joker is very different. Which has made it much harder to predict how it will perform at the box office as its audience will not be the regular comic-book audience while it might also attract non-comic book fans.

Making me compare Joker more to 2001’s Hannibal opening £6,402,540 (£11,165,782 inflation inflated) taking £21,422,605 (£37,360,195 inflation inflated) and 2002’s Red Dragon opening £3,180,493 (£5,352,718 inflation inflated) taking £9,511,130 (£16,007,077 inflation inflated).

2009’s Watchman opened £3,243,001 taking £8,639,867 and 2007’s 300 £4,746,071 (£6,785,472 inflation inflated) taking £13,986,190 (£19,996,097 inflation inflated)

1995’s Seven, 1997’s Funny Games, 1987’s Angel Heart, 1991’s Cape Fear and 2010’s Shutter Island (opened £2,250,178 taking £10,599,763).

Venom opened the same weekend last year with £8,031,342 (including £2,431,342 previews) taking £16,652,223.

If Joker opens with £6m+ would be in between 2017’s Wonder Woman £6,179,616 opening and Justice League £7,264,784 opening much less than Batman Vs Superman: Dawn of Justice £14,621,007 , Suicide Squad £11,252,225 and Man of Steel £11,198,786 but of course Joker is a very different film opening at a very different time of year and likely to get a 15/18 certificate.

Unlike all other comic-book films Joker is a one film movie and ids not set up for a sequel which is often the problem with many comic-book films they are far too busy setting up the next films they forget to make the film complete.

On September 24^th the Aurora shooting victims sent a letter to Warner Bros about their concerns over Joker “We are calling on you to be a part of the growing chorus of corporate leaders who understand that they have a social responsibility to keep us all safe,” Seven years have passed since James Holmes, clad in full body armour and armed with multiple guns including an assault rifle, terrorized the Aurora Cinemark theatre, murdering 12 people and injuring 70 during a screening of Christopher Nolan’s Batman film.

Warner Bros replied saying “Gun violence in our society is a critical issue, and we extend our deepest sympathy to all victims and families impacted by these tragedies,”…. “Our company has a long history of donating to victims of violence, including Aurora, and in recent weeks, our parent company joined other business leaders to call on policymakers to enact bi-partisan legislation to address this epidemic. At the same time, Warner Bros. believes that one of the functions of storytelling is to provoke difficult conversations around complex issues.”

Joaquin Phoenix said in a recent interview “Well, I think that, for most of us, you’re able to tell the difference between right and wrong. So I don’t think it’s the responsibility of a filmmaker to teach the audience morality or the difference between right or wrong. I mean, to me, I think that that’s obvious.”

While director Todd Phillips said “The movie makes statements about a lack of love, childhood trauma, lack of compassion in the world. I think people can handle that message,”.. “It’s so, to me, bizarre when people say, ‘Oh, well I could handle it. But imagine if you can’t.’ It’s making judgments for other people and I don’t even want to bring up the movies in the past that they’ve said this about because it’s shocking and embarrassing when you go, oh my God, Do the Right Thing, they said that about [that movie, too].”

After everything that has been written about Joker since its Venice Film Festival premiere was surprised to see BBFC rated the film 15 uncut, this decision will surely get many complaints.

• Judy – Pathe

Biographical drama about Judy Garland’s time in London in 1969 and based on the Olivier and Tony-nominated West End and Broadway play End of the Rainbow. The film stars Renée Zellweger, Jessie Buckley, Finn Wittrock, Rufus Sewell and Michael Gambon and directed by Rupert Goold.

Had its world premiere at the Telluride Film Festival in August 2019 received positive reviews (88% Rotten Tomatoes) highlighting Zellweger’s performance which has generated Oscar buzz.

Was surprising the British made film set in London didn’t open the London Film Festival opening in the UK two days after the film festival starts in the UK.

• Vampirina: Fang-Tastic Party – Disney (Event Cinema) Saturday

The spook-tastic interactive experience includes five never-before-seen episodes ahead of them being shown on Disney Junior UK.

Vampirina is the #1 transmission amongst Pay TV kids’ channels in 2019 to date for girls 4-5 with over 2 million viewers tuning into the show on Disney Junior UK on average each quarter in 2018.

The film is screening in cinemas Saturday and Sunday morning with rickets less than half the price of normal prices at Odeon and Vue cinemas. Normally Event Cinema screenings are about 100% more than regular prices. When Disney screened Olaf Frozen Adventure in cinemas in November 2017 opened with £1,115,689 from 611 screens also at reduced prices.

Opening in US Next Week

• Joker – Warner Bros

As Joker is a very different comic-book film box office expectations are anywhere between $50m and $105m as the audience for the film will be very different to those who saw the other comic-book films released this year, but it as its psychological thriller it could attract non comic-book fans.

Closest comic-book comparison is 2017’s Logan opened with $88.41m (taking $226.27m) also received critical acclaim and 2018’s Venom $80.25m (taking $213.51m) other R-rated comic-book films 2009’s Watchmen opened $55.2m and 2007’s 300 $70.9m and Deadpool $132.4m; Deadpool 2 $125.5m but it was a very different R-rated film.

Being a psychological thriller my comparisons are 2001’s Hannibal opening $58m (taking $165.1m) and 2002’s Red Dragon $36.54m (taking $93.14m) being 18 years since Hannibal opened could almost double these two films to get their inflation inflated totals. 

Critics have compared Joker to 1983’s The Kings of Comedy opened platform with $137,624 taking $2,536,242.

2002’s Signs is Joaquin Phoenix’s current biggest opener with $60.1m (taking $227.96m) and 2004’s The Village with $50.74m (taking $114.19m); his 31 films have taken $102bn in the US and $1.88bn worldwide.

Director Todd Phillips biggest opener was 2011’s The Hangover Part II with $85.94m (taking $254.46m) and 2009’s The Hangover $44.97m (taking $277.32m); his 10 films have taken $1.03bn in the US and $2.11bn worldwide.

The question will be over how Joker holds as it has immediate competition from Will Smith’s Ang Lee sci-fi action film Gemini Man which has generated positive early reviews with many saying it’s the best 3D film in years and the 120fps 4K technology works well this time.

• Lucy in the Sky – Fox Searchlight

Sci-fi drama starring Natalie Portman, Jon Hamm, Zazie Beetz, Dan Stevens, Colman Domingo, and Ellen Burstyn and written and directed by Noah Hawley (his feature directorial debut); had its world premiere at the Toronto International Film Festival in September receiving poor reviews.

The film was strangely criticised for not including astronaut Lisa Nowak’s usage of adult diapers.

In 2017 it was originally called Pale Blue Dot with Reese Witherspoon attached to star, but she dropped out to shoot the second series of Big Little Lies and Natalie Portman was cast instead.

• Pain and Glory – Sony Classics

Pedro Almodóvar film had its international premiere at the Cannes Film Festival receiving positive reviews (90% Rotten Tomatoes score) Banderas won Best Actor award and Alberto Iglesias won Best Soundtrack award.

Opened in Spain in March becoming the highest-grossing Spanish film at the box office of the year taking €5.3 million and $18.4m worldwide.

Previous Pedro Almodóvar films include

2016’s Julieta opened platform $64,044 from 6 screens taking $1,490,948

2013’s I’m So Excited opened platform $97,328 from 5 screens taking $1,368,119

2011’s The Skin I Live opened platform $223,119 from 6 screens taking   $3,185,812

2009’s Broken Embraces opened platform $107,111 from 2 screens taking $5,014,305

2006’s Volver opened platform $197,703 5 screens taking $12,899,867