2016 was £1.32 billion up 1.45% from 2015 £1.31 billion; in 2015 there were three films taking over £60m at the box office Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Spectre and Jurassic World buzz in 2016 none took over £60m; Rogue One and Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them managed to squeeze past £50m barrier over the final week of 2016.
It was reported a few weeks ago, 900 films would have been released in the UK in 2016 which is impressive but not so when you divide the box office.
Top 10 films took £425.17m = 31.99% of total box office of 2016
Top 20 films took £646.35m = 48.6% of total box office of 2016
Top 100 films took £1.107 billion = 83.3% of total box office of 2016
Which leaves £221.7m (16.7%) for the other 800 releases which includes many Event Cinema screenings which have inflated ticket prices and Secret Cinema Screenings which can’t leave much for the rest.
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2016 box office was the highest ever having grown by 80% from £742m to £1.31bn over the last 14 years but industry claimed average ticket prices have gone up from £4.44 to £7.74 between 2003 and 2016 while over the same period admissions were 175.9m in 2002 but haven’t increased in the years since. In the 10 years prior to 2002, there were massive increases in cinema admissions and in the 90s many experts were predicting admissions to be over 200m by the year 2000.
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In the 90s was massive growth in 1993 due to Jurassic Park but also in 1996 and 1997 due to National Cinema Day on June 2nd 1996 with all cinemas £1 which brought millions back to the cinema it was so successful it was repeated the following year on June 15th, 1997. Last year was the 129th anniversary which was celebrated on August 28/29th 2016 in Northern Ireland but surprisingly wasn’t in the rest of the UK as a National Cinema Day would be the boost cinemas need.
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The question I always ask is why admissions stopped growing in 2002 as it can’t be the films as there were as many massive films in 2003 with Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Finding Nemo, Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl, The Matrix Reloaded, Bruce Almighty; against Spider-Man, The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, Star Wars; Attack of the Clones, Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets in 2002.
But comparing 2002 box office with their 2017 inflated price highlights the dropping attendance as the film box office haven’t increased as strongly or as fast as prices have increased with box office needing to increase by 80% to match 2002 box office levels. So, while Spider-Man: Homecoming could match the box office of Spider-Man 3 (£33.45m in 2007) would need to take over £52m to match Spider-Man’s 2002 box office.
| 2002 BO | 2017 BO | |
| Spider-Man | £28.59m | £51.46m |
| LOTR: The Two Towers | £57.06m | £102.7m |
| SW: Attack of the Clones | £37.23m | £67.1m |
| HP: Chamber of Secrets | £54.03m | £97.25m |
Jurassic Park in 1993 took £46.71m which helped admissions have a huge increase on the year before average ticket prices were £3.21 in 2015 when Jurassic World opened were £7.21 2017 inflated box office would have been £104.91m (doesn’t include 3D and large format surcharges). Jurassic World took £64.5m 38% more than Jurassic Park but was really 62.5% less than its box office; admissions Jurassic Park 14.55m Vs Jurassic World 8.95m 38% less but probably nearer 50% less with 3D and large format charges and of course average price far more than claimed £7.21.
So, if it wasn’t the films that made people stop going to the cinema as regular it must be the price as while the industry might claim average cinema ticket is still cheap only £7.74 in reality, it’s almost a third more which would see admissions at the same levels as they were 20 years ago.
Going to the cinema used to be a cheap night out something many at its peak would go several times a week when tickets would cost the same as a pint of Guinness. But over the years since it became weekly, monthly and now a yearly trip for many as the costs have gone from a pint of Guinness to a Big Mac in the 70s to two Big Macs in the 90s to now a gourmet burger and drink.
Until the industry stops living in denial believing just because the box office is up everything is awesome cinema won’t change.
Film streaming in the UK is now as big as UK box office while the combined digital and physical home entertainment marketing is almost double. Distributors for years have wanted to cut the 17-week theatrical window being shut down by exhibitors, but as most films are played out of cinemas by week 6 these films are then unavailable legally for up to two months thanks to digital cinema and China good quality pirates are now available online after about a month of release. While 90% of a film’s box office is now taken for most films within the first 4 weeks, even Rogue One which took £52m in three weeks has already taken over 80% of its final box office and will likely be played out in week 10.
| UK Top 20 films 2015/16 | |||||||||||||
| Rogue One | £17.30m | 2.98x | £56.4m* | The Force Awakens | £33.90m | 3.62x | £123m | ||||||
| Fantastic Beasts | £15.33m | 3.26x | £52.1m* | Spectre | £41.21m | 2.30x | £95m | ||||||
| Bridget Jones’s Baby | £8.03m | 5.96x | £48.1m | Jurassic World | £19.29m | 3.28x | £63.31m | ||||||
| The Jungle Book | £9.86m | 4.69x | £46.19m | Age of Ultron | £17.99m | 2.68x | £48.32m | ||||||
| Finding Dory | £8.12m | 5.27x | £42.89m | Minions Movie | £11.55m | 4.09x | £47.25m | ||||||
| Deadpool | £13.79m | 2.70x | £37.8m | Inside Out | £7.34m | 5.30x | £38.91m | ||||||
| CA: Civil War | £14.46m | 2.55x | £36.94m | Fast & Furious 7 | £12.74m | 3.01x | £38.38m | ||||||
| Batman Vs Superman | £14.62m | 2.47x | £36.6m | 50 Shades of Grey | £13.47m | 2.59x | £35.01m | ||||||
| The Secret Life of Pets | £9.58m | 3.76x | £36.3m | Mockingjay Part 2 | £11.24m | 2.56x | £28.86m | ||||||
| Suicide Squad | £11.21m | 2.98x | £33.41m | Home | £6.02m | 4.14x | £24.97m | ||||||
| The BFG | £5.28m | 5.80x | £30.64m | The Martian | £6.52m | 3.57x | £23.32m | ||||||
| The Girl on the Train | £6.96m | 3.40x | £23.65m | Theory of Everything | £3.74m | 5.73x | £21.45m | ||||||
| Zootropolis | £5.30m | 4.45x | £23.61m | Cinderella | £3.80m | 5.60x | £21.28m | ||||||
| Trolls | £5.43m | 4.30x | £23.36m | Mission Impossible 5 | £5.33m | 3.95x | £21.07m | ||||||
| Doctor Strange | £9.28m | 2.49x | £21.15m | Hotel Transylvania 2 | £6.31m | 3.12x | £19.72m | ||||||
| Jason Bourne | £7.60m | 3.04x | £23.11m | Big Hero 6 | £4.29m | 4.50x | £19.34m | ||||||
| The Revenant | £5.07m | 4.51x | £22.86m | Legend | £5.16m | 3.55x | £18.35m | ||||||
| X-Men: Apocalypse | £7.35m | 2.50x | £18.34m | Pitch Perfect 2 | £5.01m | 3.43x | £17.23m | ||||||
| Alvin & Chipmunks 4 | £4.29m | 3.83x | £16.45m | Mad Max: Fury Road | £4.53m | 3.79x | £17.20m | ||||||
| Ab Fab Movie | £4.01m | 3.99x | £16.01m | Taken 3 | £6.71m | 2.55x | £17.17m | ||||||
Disney
£300.7m – 22.62% from 11 releases
Up 14.9% from 2015 (£261.67m) becoming the biggest distributor for two years in a row increasing its box office share by almost 3% on their 2015 total box office and 41% ahead of second place studio.
Showing how strong Disney’s 2016 slate was in 2015 Star Wars The Force Awakens took 33.2% of £261.67m box office while Rogue One has taken only 21.5%.
Disney released the least amount of films of all the major studios 11 with Paramount the closest who released 12 but their box office total was 332% less.
In recent years Disney has cut back films they release (before getting into the comic-book business they would make a wider mix of genres and far more films similar to their rivals) concentrating on franchises and films from their brands Marvel, Lucasfilm (Star Wars and from 2019 Indiana Jones) Disney remaking their classic animations and Pixar.
Disney used to make a wide range of family-friendly original films comedies and dramas they have cut back on; The Finest Hours and The Queen of Katwe were their two biggest disappointments which were films they used to have huge success with before they moved into the comic-book business.
Biggest disappointment was Alice Through the Looking Glass which took £9.91m which was less than original Alice in Wonderland opened with in March 2010; was another box office failure for Johnny Depp, his last major success was 2011’s Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides and Disney have the sequel Pirates of the Caribbean: Salazar’s Revenge released in May which is one of two films that are the two unknowns of their megamovie slate (other Cars 3 opening a few weeks after Despicable Me 3, which looks like a similar match-up of Despicable Me 3 Vs Monsters University in summer 2013 maybe that’s why Disney have gone to scary and sexy with the teaser trailers for Cars 3.
| The Curse of the Black Pearl | 8th Aug 2003 | £3.76m | 7.47x | £28.1m |
| Dead Man’s Chest | 6th July 2006 | £13.74m | 3.76x | £51.73m |
| At World’s End | 24th May 2007 | £13.41m | 2.99x | £40.12m |
| On Stranger Tides | 18th May 2011 | £11.63m | 2.80x | £32.67m |
Star Wars VIII is expected to be the biggest film of the year repeating the success of Star Wars: The Force Awakens taking £100m+ in December.
| UK Release | O WE | Av P | 2016 d | T BO | |||
| A New Hope | 27 Dec 1977 | n/a | £0.86 | n/a | +800% | £17.14 | 20,760,000 |
| Empire Strikes Back | 21May 1980 | n/a | £1.41 | n/a | +448.9% | n/a | n/a |
| Return of the Jedi | 2 June 1983 | n/a | £1.89 | n/a | +309.3% | n/a | n/a |
| The Phantom Menace | 18 July 1999 | £9.51 | £4.15 | 2,291,567 | +86.5% | £50.74 | 12,226,507 |
| Attack of the Clones | 19 May 2002 | £11.38 | £4.29 | 2,652,681 | +80.4% | £37.23 | 8,678,322 |
| Revenge of the Sith | 22 May 2005 | £14.36 | £4.71 | 3,048,833 | +64.3% | £39.18 | 8,318,472 |
| The Force Awakens | 17 Dec 2015 | £33.90 | £7.21 | 4,701,804 | +7.3% | £123m | 17,059,631 |
| Rogue One | 17 Dec 2016 | £17.01 | £7.74 | 2,206,078 | £65m* | 6,459,949 |
Beauty and the Beast are likely to repeat the success of last years The Jungle Book taking £45m+.
| Though the Looking Glass | 27 May 2016 | £2.22m | 4.01x | £9.91m |
| The Jungle Book | 15 Apr 2016 | £9.86m | 4.68x | £46.19m |
| Cinderella | 27 Mar 2015 | £3.79m | 5.54x | £21.02m |
| Into the Woods | 9 Jan 2015 | £2.48m | 3.96x | £9.83m |
| Maleficent | 28 May 2014 | £6.59m | 2.81x | £18.52m |
| Oz the Great and Powerful | 8 March 2013 | £3.71m | 4.03x | £14.98m |
| Alice in Wonderland | 5 March 2010 | £10.56m | 3.99x | £42.16m |
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.2 is likely to repeat the success of the first film and Thor 3: Ragnarok with the addition of The Hulk and Doctor Strange is likely to do far better than the previous Thor films as like Captain America: Civil War it is more Avengers 2.1.
| Avengers Assemble | 26th April 2012 | £15.78m | 30.3% | 3.28x | £51.91m |
| Avengers: Age of Ultron | 23 April 2015 | £17.99m | 37.2% | 2.68x | £48.32m |
| CA: Civil War | 29th April 2016 | £14.46m | 39.1% | 2.55x | £36.94m |
| Iron Man 3 | 25th April 2013 | £11.39m | 31.1% | 3.22x | £36.68m |
| Guardians of the Galaxy | 31st July 2014 | £6.35m | 22.3% | 4.49x | £28.53m |
| Doctor Strange* | 25th October 2016 | £9.28m | 40.3% | 2.47x | £23.01m |
| Iron Man 2 | 30th April 2010 | £7.68m | 36.7% | 2.72x | £20.92m |
| CA: Winter Soldier | 26th March 2014 | £6.03m | 31.2% | 3.20x | £19.31m |
| Thor: The Dark World | 30th October 2013 | £8.65m | 43.8% | 2.27x | £19.71m |
| Iron Man | 2nd May 2008 | £5.46m | 31.8% | 3.13x | £17.13m |
| Ant-Man | 17th July 2015 | £4.01m | 24.6% | 4.06x | £16.29m |
| Thor | 27th April 2011 | £5.44m | 39.3% | 2.54x | £13.84m |
| CA: The First Avenger | 29th July 2011 | £2.98m | 32.3% | 3.09x | £9.21m |
| The incredible Hulk | 13th June 2008 | £3.25m | 36.7% | 2.48x | £8.06m |
Another strong slate might only have 7 films currently dated but five of them are likely to be among the biggest of the year with Star Wars: Episode VIII, Beauty and the Beast and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.2 expected to be three of the biggest films of 2017. But while Disney are going with franchises the only original film for 2017 is animated Coco, before they got into the comic-book business were famous for original family and feel-good sports dramas and action movies
Top 3 – Star Wars: Rogue One £56.4m – The Jungle Book £46.19m – Finding Dory – £42.86m
Misses – Alice In Wonderland 2 – £9.91m – Pete’s Dragon £5.17m – The Finest Hours £0.24m
2017 Key Releases – Beauty and the Beast – Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.2 – Star Wars VIII (7)
20th Century Fox
£212.5m – 15.8% from 20 releases
Up 5% from 2015 (£212.5m) 20th Century Fox had a very mixed 2016 started so strongly with Oscar-winning The Revenant and the surprising performance of Deadpool and Alvin and the Chipmunks 4. But then many of their expected successes underperformed Kung Fu Panda 3 (surprisingly took 60% less than Trolls), X-Men: Apocalypse and Independence Day: Resurgence (taking a third less than original took 20 years ago) and Ice Age: Collusion Course (many of these films weren’t helped by surprising marketing decisions holding a global preview event a week before X-Men: Apocalypse which was negatively received, Ice Age: Collusion Course premiering a month before release at Sydney Film Festival and Independence Day: Resurgence they went the other way not screening it until late being overshadowed with Brexit and Boris Johnson).
While Independence Day: Resurgence received the backlash to Brexit vote Absolutely Fabulous The Movie was the much-needed relief to it performing far stronger than expected. Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiars was a strong autumn performer as was Trolls.
20th Century Fox has an equally strong mix of genres for 2017 focussing strongly on adult dramas, thrillers, and sci-fi; central to their slate is War For the Planet of the Apes along with Logan, Alien: Covenant and Kingsman: The Golden Circle.
They also release their final two Dreamworks Animations Boss Baby and Captain Underpants and their first original animated film from Blue Sky Studios since The Peanuts Movie; Ferdinand released in December based on the children’s book The Story of Ferdinand. In 1936 the book outsold Gone with the Wind to become the number 1 best seller in the US. In 1938 was described as the best children’s classic since Winnie the Pooh but was also seen as a political symbol was banned in many countries and in Nazi Germany Hitler ordered the book burned as it “degenerate democratic propaganda”.
A strong slate focusing on grown up comic books Logan and sci-fi Alien: Covenant and War For the Planet of the Apes but as with Warner Bros have a lot of original movies which are what audiences say they want to see but are of course riskier.
Top 3 – Deadpool £37.73m – Trolls £23.36m – The Revenant £22.86m
Misses – X-Men: Apocalypse £18.34m -Independence Day: Resurgence £12.10m – Ice Age 5 – £7.55m
2017 Key Releases – Logan – Alien: Covenant – War For The Planet of The Apes (23)
Warner Bros
£201.9m – 15.19% from 30 releases
Up 85.2% from 2015 (£109.1m) was much negativity surrounding Warner Bros slate after Batman Vs Superman: Dawn of Justice and Suicide Squad were both poorly received critically but still managed to be #8 and #10 biggest films of the year. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them might not be the Harry Potter sized success many expected but being the first part of a spinoff prequel it was never going to match its success. The Conjuring 2, Me Before You and How to Be Single were mid-range successes showing that audiences do want something different. Even The Legend of Tarzan did surprisingly well as many expected it to be the big flop but opening after the Jungle Book probably helped.
Unlike other studios they didn’t have any real surprise failures as before their UK openings Our Kind of Crisis, Point Break, The Infiltrator and Collateral Beauty had already disappointed in the US so no surprise they did similar in the UK.
Warner Bros have a strong slate of mixed genres for 2017 The Lego Batman Movie likely to be the DC film audiences have been wanting to see since the end of The Dark Knight Trilogy. Kong: Skull Island which is the set-up film to the planned Godzilla Vs Kong film set for release in May 2020. Much expected for Wonder Woman who was the best thing about Batman Vs Superman while Christopher Nolan’s Dunkirk looks like an epic war movie (opening a week after War for the Planet of the Apes could be an issue) ending the year with Justice League. Guy Ritchie’s King Arthur: Legend of the Sword and Dean Devlin’s Geostorm are two films Warner both delayed films which could be problematic but Guy Ritchie’s last film 2015’s The Man from U.N.C.L.E was probably one of the most enjoyable and stylish spy movies in recent years.
Unlike their rivals, Warner Bros alongside the mega movies do make many original films still Who’s The Daddy, Fist Fight, Going in Style, The House, It, Everything, Everything, Chips and have The Conjuring spinoff sequel Annabelle 2 and John Wick 2.
A strong slate but much riskier than rival studios with much expected from both Wonder Woman and Justice League if they both deliver could do similar or better than Batman Vs Superman and Suicide Squad. With The Lego Batman Movie, Dunkirk and Kong: Skull Island all likely to rake £20m+.
Top 3 – Fantastic Beasts £52.1m – Batman Vs Superman £36.17 – Suicide Squad £33.41m
Misses – Collateral Beauty £1.77m – Point Break £0.41m – Storks £6.87m
2017 Key Releases – Wonder Woman – Dunkirk – Justice League (22)
Universal Pictures UK
£183.4m – 13.79% from 25 releases
Down 34.4% from 2015 (£279.93m) after Universal Pictures UK had a record-breaking year thanks to Jurassic World, Minions, Fast & Furious 7 and Fifty Shades of Grey 2016 was always unlikely to come close. The start of the year many underperformed from The Danish Girl, Ride Along 2 and Dad’s Army, Hail Caesar, My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 then release The Huntsman Winter’s War, Bad Neighbours 2 and Warcraft all ahead of their US openings which were strange decision as all were poorly received which then hurt their US openings.
But then came The Secret Life of Pets opening in their Despicable Me 2 and Minions late June slot which despite getting mixed reviews opened strongly becoming the ninth biggest film of the year. Central Intelligence followed performing well and despite being a greatest hits movie Jason Bourne performed well even though it was sandwiched between Star Trek Beyond and Suicide Squad.
Bridget Jones’s Baby arrived in September while many experts called it a surprise but it performed like the first two films which were one of the biggest films of the year. But while its box office was far superior to previous films admissions were a different story as for how can you really compare the box office to films release 12 and 15 years ago.
2017 sees sequels to many of the hits from 2015 Fifty Shades Darker, Fate of the Furious. The first without first Furious film since The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift not to star him which was the lowest performing film of the series in the UK/US and worldwide.
| The Fast and the Furious | 14th Sept 2001 | £1.76m | 3.68x | £6.49m |
| 2 Fast 2 Furious | 30 June 2003 | £2.74m | 2.56x | £7.04m |
| The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift | 16th June 2006 | £1.81m | 3.12x | £5.66m |
| Fast & Furious | 10 April 2009 | £4.92m | 2.75x | £13.53m |
| Fast & Furious 5 | 21 April 2011 | £5.33m | 3.37x | £18.01m |
| Fast & Furious 6 | 17 May 2013 | £8.72m | 2.78x | £24.3m |
| Fast & Furious 7 | 3 April 2015 | £12.74m | 3.01x | £38.38m |
Despicable Me 3 and Pitch Perfect 3; Despicable Me opened October 2010 with £3.66m, including £205,000 in previews (17% of final box office). The 8th biggest film of 2010 taking £21.2m. Despicable Me 2 opened July 2013 with £14.78m (including £4.9m from previews from the weekend before) £10m taken Fri-Sun (31% of final box office); biggest film of 2013 taking £47.4m; Minions opened June 26th, 2015 with £11.55m taking £47.25m. First Pitch Perfect opened December 21st, 2012 opening with £952,000 taking £6.7m the sequel opened May 15th, 2015 with £4.92m (up 425% from the original film) taking £1.59m on its opening day went on to take £17.23m.
Also, have two Tom Cruise films his first since Jack Reacher: Never Go Back disappointed thriller American Made opening in September and in June The Mummy with Russell Crowe which is the first part of Universal’s planned Monsters Shared Universe.
Universal previously rebooting The Mummy films in 1999 starring Brenden Fraser and Rachel Weisz; first film opened in June 1999; The Mummy Returns opened May 2001 (the film that launched Dwayne Johnson then The Rock acting career) and The Scorpion King a spinoff opened in April 2002 three directed to video sequels were released over the following 13 years.
| The Mummy | 25th June 1999 | £3.77m | 4.60x | £17.36m |
| The Mummy Returns | 18th May 2001 | £5.92m | 3.43x | £20.32m |
| The Scorpion King | 19th April 2002 | £1.61m | 3.06x | £4.94m |
| Van Helsing | 7th May 2004 | £5.42m | 2.76x | £15.01m |
Away from the blockbusters have many original films M. Night Shyamalan Split, follow up to 2015’s The Visit a moderate success for Universal. Loving receiving award recognition; others include The Zookeeper’s Wife, The Beguiled, The Coldest City, Victoria and Abdul and The Snowman starring Michael Fassbender.
With a much steadier strong slate of films across the year spearheaded by sequels to three of their 2015 big guns will likely see a slight increase to their 2016 box office and share.
Top 3 – Bridget Jones’s Baby – £48.1m – The Secret Life of Pets – £36.3m – Jason Bourne £23.11m
Misses – The Huntsman £5.27m – Warcraft £5.97m – Kubo And The Two Strings £2.92m
2017 Key Releases – Fifty Shades Darker – Furious 8 – Despicable Me 3 (20)
eOne UK
£109.9m – 8.27% from 27 releases
Up 118.3% from 2015 (£50.33m); having their biggest ever year eOne was the biggest independent distributor for four of the last five years and five times of the last eight. It was the second time they had taken over £100m at the box office the last independent distributor to do so was Entertainment Film Distributors in 2002 with £137m and 2003 with £115m thanks to Lord of the Rings films.
While releasing 27 films almost 50% came from two films The BFG £30.64m and The Girl on the Train £23.65m; being an independent distributor they are reliant on the product made and then acquired. eOne having an output deal with Dreamworks is similar to Entertainment Films who had a deal with New Line Cinema which gave them The Lord of the Rings films but suffered when the studio was merged within Warner Bros in 2008.
Away from Dreamworks films (The Light Between oceans and Office Christmas Party weren’t nearly as successful) eOne had success with Arrival, Spotlight, Eye in the Sky and I, Daniel Blake but also had many disappointments the biggest was David Brent’s Life on the Road.
Being reliant on production deals and acquired films eOne’s 2017 is lacking the big guns start the year with several award contenders A Minster Calls, Jackie, Denial, 20th Century Women and Miss Sloane but none are likely to match the success of Spotlight last year.
Away from Peppa Pig: My First Cinema Experience, A Dog’s Purpose, Animal Crackers, Amityville, Thank You for Your Service, Finding Your Feet and Funny Cow don’t compare with their 2016 slate so likely to have a big drop off this year unless they acquire some interesting movies for later in the year.
With no films of similar size and box office potential as The BFG and The Girl on the Train in 2017 likely their box office and share drop by half with rivals having far stronger slates.
Top 3 – The BFG £30.64m – The Girl on the Train £23.65m – Arrival £9.14m
Misses – Gods of Egypt £0.82m – Midnight Special £1.08m – Life on the Road £3.63m
2017 Key Releases – A Monster Calls – Peppa Pig – A Dog’s Purpose (20)
Sony Pictures UK
£87.3m – 6.56% from 26 releases;
Down 42.2% from 2015 (£151.28m); in 2015 Spectre took £94m which was 62.1% of their box office for the year in recent years James Bond films have taken a growing percentage of the box office of Sony Pictures UK years and the years without have been disappointing as they don’t have the franchise other studios have.
2016 was to see the return of Robert Langdon in Inferno after the very successful Da Vinci Code in 2003 and Angels & Demons in 2009 along with the long-in-development Ghostbusters film along with new dystopian YA sci-fi franchise The 5th Wave and new franchise Goosebumps (the first film had a steady not as strong launch as expected), the one success was The Angry Birds Movie.
So many overwhelmed at the box office while Ghostbusters might be their biggest box office earner £10.39m is probably a third of what was expected, similar with Goosebumps and Inferno taking £8.51m and £8.31m taking half of expected along with current release Passengers taking £10.5m which has become their biggest film of 2016.
2017 looks much more positive only issue is nostalgia-heavy with long in the development sequels, reboots Bladerunner 2049, Flatliners, Trainspotting and Jumanji originals are over 20 years’ audiences are fickle with reboots and remakes with Independence Day: Resurgence and Ghostbusters failing to match the success of their original films but then Finding Dory, The Jungle Book, and Jason Bourne were all successful.
T2; Trainspotting opens almost 21 years to the date of the original film which took £12.43m in 1996 and was the tenth biggest film of 1996; the sequel has massive hype and expectations but the question is can it be as good as the original and be as successful; cinema tickets have gone up over 109% since 1996 so the sequel will need to take £26m to match its box office.
Spider-Man: Homecoming is central to their success joining forces with Marvel changing the tone of the film like the Marvel movies with the addition of Avengers characters including Iron Man. But it’s only 15 years since Sony first rebooted the franchise and 5 years since the second reboot; but all five films have performed strongly and Spider-Man: Homecoming is likely to perform similarly to Captain America: Civil War last year.
| Spider-Man | 14 June 2002 | £9.24m | £28.59m |
| Spider- Man 2 | 16 July 2004 | £8.76m | £26.41m |
| Spider-Man 3 | 4 May 2007 | £11.82m | £33.45m |
| The Amazing Spider-Man | 3 July 2012 | £11.89m | £25.74m |
| The Amazing Spider-Man 2 | 16 April 2014 | £9.01m | £23.64m |
Sci-fi fantasy western The Dark Tower based on a series of novels by Stephen King hoped to be the start of a new franchise originally had J.J Abrams attached to direct, then Ron Howard but was directed by Nikolaj Arcel directing his first US film and his first since 2012’s A Royal Affair.
While The Smurfs: The Lost Village and The Emoji Movie makes parents meh but children are likely to lap them up as the previous two Smurfs movies and The Angry Birds Movie.
Blade Runner 2049 might be eagerly awaited by sci-fi fans but its 35 years since original opened; while has become a cult classic in years since the film wasn’t a success at the box office opening three weeks after E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial in the US with Tron opening two weeks after Blade Runner only stayed in the top 10 for three weeks.
Several horror franchises are back Underworld: Blood Wars, Resident Evil 6, Insidious Chapter 4 along with the return of Flatliners.
With a far stronger slate than recent years likely to match their 2015 box office and match its market share from 6.56% to 11.55% but depends heavily on how the memberries react this year as audiences can be very fickle despite all the massive hype and expectations for many of them rarely to they match up with what came before.
Top 3 – Ghostbusters £10.39m – The Angry Birds Movie £10.31m – Goosebumps £8.51m
Misses – Ghostbusters £10.39m – Passengers £7.47m – Grimsby £5.26m
2017 Key Releases – T2: Trainspotting – Spider-Man: Homecoming – The Dark Tower (24)
Paramount Pictures
£69.6m – 5.24% from 12 releases
Up 31.5% from 2015 (£52.89m); another disappointing year for Paramount despite seeing an increase in their box office from 2015 Star Trek Beyond, Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2, Zoolander 2 and Allied all disappointed, their only slight positives were The Big Short and 10, Cloverfield Lane. Showing how poor 2016 was their second biggest film of the year was the box office from Daddy’s Home.
2017 looks like 2016 with XxX3: The Return of Xander Cage £8m, Ghost in the Shell £8m and Baywatch £10m and Transformers 5 £20m and Cloverfield 3 £5m. With £3m for horrors Rings and reboot of Friday the 13th . 2017 box office slightly up but with most other distributors likely to improve share Is likely to be similar.
| Transformers | 27 Jul 2007 | £8.71m | 2.66x | £23.25m |
| Revenge of the Fallen | 19 June 2009 | £8.34m | 3.15x | £26.53m |
| Dark of the Moon | 29 Jun 2011 | £10.72m | 2.59x | £27.86m |
| Age of Extinction | 5 July 2014 | £11.70m | 1.62x | £19.07m |
Denzel Washington’s Fences is likely to be an award contender but will likely be a hard sell as while ever since his film debut in 1987’s Richard Attenborough’s Cry Freedom had continued success at the UK box office as an actor but his previous two films as a director his first Antwone Fisher had a limited opening in the UK opening with £59,976 from 46 screens in 18th May 2003 but his second The Great Debaters in 2007 didn’t have a theatrical release in the UK.
Top 3 – Star Trek Beyond £14.98m – Jack Reacher 2 £8.01m – TMNT 2 – £5.82m
Misses – Zoolander 2 – £4.54m – Ben Hur £2.05m – Allied £3.97m
2017 Key Releases – Baywatch – Transformers 5 – Cloverfield 3 (10)
Lionsgate UK
£54.2m – 4.08% from 22 releases
Up 6.6% from 2015 (£50.82m); Lionsgate still managed to increase their box office in 2016 without having a Hunger Games film which was central to their success for the previous four years.
London Has Fallen and Eddie the Eagle were their two strongest performers but Brotherhood, Love and Friendship and Sing Street while not as big earners were equally impressive at the box office.
Blair Witch was their biggest disappointment after surprising fans at Comic-Con in July who thought they were going to see low budget horror The Woods only to discover it was Blair Witch expectations were high for its September release but was a disappointment.
2017 starts with award favorite La La Land, it is a lovely film but do wonder if mainstream audiences will react to it the same way critics have done. As do think in a few years’ time it will be 2004’s Crash is no a film that didn’t deserve award success; also, have award contenders Hacksaw Ridge and Patriot’s Day.
Power Rangers based on based on the 90s US Mighty Morphin Power Rangers. The last film version was 1995’s Mighty Morphin Power Rangers opened July 21st, 1995 taking £4.12m was aimed for children, Power Rangers is aimed at the comic-book audience with a much grittier version with the trailers looking like Chronicle which opened with £2.19m in February 2012 £6.87m, Project Almanac was director Dean Israelite the last film opened February with £0.86m taking £1.21m and Fantastic Four opening with £2.68m in August 2015 taking £5.65m.
20 years after The Fifth Element Luc Besson is back with sci-fi Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets has the biggest budget for a French film $180m.
Also, Wonder, Their Finest, Unlocked, The Hitman’s Bodyguard, Granite Mountain, My Little Pony and Saw Legacy.
Much harder to judge than other distributors as Lionsgate are heavy on original films; La La Land has received strong buzz and massive media coverage but while critics and lovies have fallen for its charms will mainstream audiences? Same question could be asked about Power Rangers and Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets.
Top 3 – London Has Fallen £10.97m – Eddie The Eagle £8.62m – Deepwater Horizon £5.27m
Misses – Blair Witch £2.09m – Pride and Prejudice and Zombies – £0.78m – Criminal – £0.43m
2017 Key Releases – La La Land – Power Rangers – Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (18)
Studiocanal UK
£21.4m – 1.61% from 60 releases
Down 60.7% from 2015 (£54.5m); despite releasing per FDA website a whopping 60 films Room £3.77m and Swallows and Amazons £3.1m were their strongest performers far different from a year ago, with Legend £18.35m and Shaun The Sheep £13.72m and the year before Paddington £37.8m.
2016 had several disappointments including Our Kind of Traitor £1.21m, Hell or High Water £1.47m and Bastille Day £1.99m.
As with the success eOne had had in 2016 but their lack of similar titles in 2017 Studiocanal is dependent on the films they acquire with Studiocanal having a stronger slate for 2017; Starting with award contenders Silence, Manchester By the Sea, Gold and The Founder, but then also Free Fire, The Commuter and of course Paddington 2.
Showing how dependent independent distributors are with one film to support their year’s slate Paddington 2 will likely increase Studiocanal’s 2016 total box office by about 50% on its own thus tripling their box office share to a similar level in 2014.
Top 3 – Room £3.77m – Swallows and Amazons £3.1m – Bastille Day £1.99m
Misses – Our Kind of Traitor £1.21m – Hell or High Water £1.47m – Bastille Day £1.99m
2017 Key Releases – Paddington 2 – The Commuter – The Founder (18)
Entertainment Films
£19.2m – 1.45% from 5 releases
Down 4.9% from 2015 (£20.2m); 15 years ago, Entertainment Films were the biggest independent distributor in the UK with output deals with many production companies including New Line Cinema which was very lucrative for them.
But in the last 10 years with the likes of Studiocanal, Lionsgate and eOne all having far deeper wallets to acquire films Entertainment have seen their slate shrinking. In recent years, have released many films from Weinstein Co who also have cut back also having an output deal with STX which will be ending shortly as they are setting up their own UK distribution. Two of their biggest 2016 releases came from STX Bad Moms and The Boy, The Hateful Eight was their other major success.
2017 Entertainment have The Bye Bye Man and The Space Between Us two films delayed from 2016 from STX along with a couple of films from Weinstein Co the award contender Lion, War with Grandpa and the long-delayed Tulip Fever; footage was screened at the Cannes Film Festival in 2015 was originally set for release in July 2016 before being delayed to February 2017 after rumours Harvey Weinstein was unhappy with the final cut.
If Entertainment Films have Bad Dads and Bad Moms Christmas, then their box 2017 box office and share could be like 2016.
Top 3 – Bad Moms £7.97m – The Hateful Eight £6.34m – The Boy £2.38m
Misses – Hardcore Henry £0.2m – American Pastoral £0.05m
2017 Key Releases – Lion – The Space Between – War with Grandpa
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Biggest films 2016 Vs Biggest film predictions for 2017
| Star Wars Episode VIII | £100m+ | Rogue One* | £65m* | 2.89x* |
| Beauty and the Beast | £45m+ | Fantastic Beasts* | £55m* | 3.13x* |
| Despicable Me 3 | £40m+ | Bridget Jones’s Baby | £47.87m | 5.96x |
| Paddington 2 | £35m+ | The Jungle Book | £46.19m | 4.68x |
| Spider-Man: Homecoming | £30m+ | Finding Dory | £42.86m | 5.28x |
| Guardians of the Galaxy Vol, 2 | £30m+ | Deadpool | £37.73m | 2.74x |
| Fifty Shades Darker | £30m+ | Captain America: Civil War | £26.94m | 2.55x |
| The Fate of the Furious | £30m+ | Batman Vs Superman | £36.17m | 2.47x |
| The Lego Batman Movie | £30m+ | The Secret Life of Pets | £36.04m | 3.76x |
| War For the Planet of the Apes | £30m+ | Suicide Squad | £33.41m | 2.98x |
| Sing | £25m+ | The BFG | £30.64m | 5.80x |
| Dunkirk | £25m+ | The Girl on the Train | £23.65m | 3.40x |
| Wonder Woman | £25m+ | Zootropolis | £23.61m | 4.45x |
| Thor 3: Ragnarok | £20m+ | Jason Bourne | £23.11m | 3.04x |
| Pirates of the Caribbean 5 | £20m+ | Doctor Strange | £23.01m | 2.48x |
| Transformers 5 | £17.5m+ | The Revenant | £22.86m | 4.51x |
| Alien: Covenant | £17.5m+ | Trolls | £22.74m | 4.19x |
| Kong: Skull Island | £15m+ | X-Men: Apocalypse | £18.34m | 2.50x |
| The Mummy | £15m+ | Alvin and the Chipmunks 4 | £15.45m | 3.83x |
| Coco | £15m+ | Ab Fab The Movie | £16.01m | 3.99x |