Paul’s UK/ US Weekend Box Office Report July 29th-31st 2016

Top 5 Breakdown

  1. Finding Dory £8,122,075 -NE

Second biggest Fri-Sun opening for Pixar film behind Toy Story 3 and seventh biggest animated Fri- Sun opening behind the seventh-biggest three-day opening, behind Minions, Toy Story 3, Shrek 2, Shrek the Third, Despicable Me 2 and The Simpsons Movie.

Disney in the past would often delay their summer animated films to October (Ratatouille and Up) but since Toy Story 3 in 2010 have returned them to the start of the lucrative school summer holidays. By doing so their rivals in recent years Universal with Despicable Me 2, Minions and The Secret Life of Pets have opened them in June to avoid going into direct competition which has also become very lucrative for them.

We were to get an Illumination Entertainment Vs Pixar battle of the big guns next summer with Toy Story 4 Vs Despicable Me 3 but Disney switched it for Cars 3 which is unlikely to be much competition for Gru and his minions.

Finding Dory opening was fantastic the second biggest animated opening of the year behind The Secret Life of Pets but 13 years ago Finding Dory opened with £7.38m and went on to take £37.5m opening in October having only one week of school holidays while Finding Dory has 6 weeks.

In 2003 average ticket prices were £4.44 and the film wasn’t released in 3D average prices for 2016 are claimed to be £7.21m which is 62% increase; while on paper it looks like Finding Dory has beaten Finding Nemo’s opening it would have needed to open with £11.95m to of beaten it and needs to take £61m+ to match its box office.

Will become Disney’s third £30m box office earner of 2016 with Doctor Strange and Rogue One still to come could have 5 for the year.

Disney and Pixar’s highest grossing film was Toy Story 3 £73.8m with Toy Story 2 £44.4m in second but will more likely match last year’s Inside Out £38.91 which will be above Monsters Inc £37.9m and Finding Nemo £37.4m but as those two were released in 2001 and 2003 impossible to compare their box office as inflation inflated would be closer to Toy Story 3’s £73.8m.

  1. Jason Bourne £7,600,420 -NE

Nine years after the excellent The Bourne Ultimatum ended the fantastic trilogy Jason Bourne has the biggest opening of the series today.

Jason Bourne opening was boosted by previews taking £2.29m Wed/Thurs (which wasn’t enough for it to open on those days ahead of The BFG). In comparison The Bourne Ultimatum took £1.24m from previews.  The Bourne Supremacy added £361,000 in previews to its £2.72m opening. While The Bourne Identity didn’t have previews. While The Bourne Legacy £4.62m opening was inflated opening on Monday to give it a 7 day opening weekend taking £2.52m of that opening Mon-Thurs.

The Bourne Identity September 6th 2002 £2.1m 27.2% £7.71m
The Bourne Supremacy August 13th 2004 £2.72m 23.8% £11.39m
The Bourne Ultimatum August 17th 2007 £6.55m 27.9% £23.42m
The Bourne Legacy August 17th 2012 £4.62m 42.5% £10.86m

Strange coincidence the two new releases have similar plots both sequels of massive movies but one received very positive reviews for being a new story and building on what came before while the other while the other is a greatest hits album. The end result is similar to Steven Spielberg’s Bridge of Spies Paul Greengrass makes an enjoyable film but is far from what came before feeling to most underwhelming, unnecessary and pointless as it didn’t take the story further.  

The Bourne Identity in 2002 inspired the reboot of a grittier James Bond in Casino Royale and Quantum of Solace while also inspiring many rip-offs in films like Taken, The Expendables, World War Z and Elysium. Paul Greengrass took over directorial duties from Doug Liman with the Bourne Supremacy adding hand held shaky cam with fast editing which defined the following films but in Jason Bourne it goes a little too much.

Part of the problem with Jason Bourne comes from the title and its marketing with the tagline You Know His Name similar to James Bond (Disney fabulously spoofed with its marketing for Finding Dory) but Jason Bourne isn’t Bond.

The Guardian recently reported Matt Damon only had about 25 lines in Jason Bourne leaving him to do his talking through punching and driving cars through casinos leaving the talking to Tommy Lee Jones, Alicia Vikander and Riz Ahmed. He actually had 45 lines 288 words most of them are questions like •What has that got to do with me? Watching me? What’s wrong? It doesn’t make any sense. Why? Why was he killed? Why!? Who killed him? Where is he?

Universal have recently said they want to make Bourne movies until Matt Damon can’t make them anymore seeing as Harrison Ford will make Indiana Jones 5 when his 77 we could have another 30 years of Bourne movies. But most will agree that while Jason Bourne is enjoyable action film it is far from the level of the previous films.

For years Matt Damon and Paul Greengrass refused to make another Bourne film why Universal made The Bourne Legacy instead but then they both decided to make another film as they said they had a fantastic idea.  Why the film was so disappointing there are many bad films which I am fine about but few that I felt disappointed after leaving the cinema the last was Interstellar.

  1. The BFG – £3,622,699 – total £14,478,457

Dropping 35.8% in its second weekend after taking almost £6m Mon-Thurs holding top spot all of last week despite the arrival of Jason Bourne on Wednesday.

Will shortly overtake Steven Spielberg’s directed The Adventures Of Tintin: The Secret Of The Unicorn £16.3m and War Horse £18.63m.

Opening was similar to Paddington in 2014 while impossible to compare its box office as Paddington opened in December as it added only £1.35m Mon-Thurs compared to almost £6m for The BFG their second weekends were also similar wit The BFG 11% down which is due to box office move evenly split over weekdays during school holidays.

Hard to compare with the most recent Roald Dahl adaption Fantastic Mr Fox being released in October 2009 which took £1.57m in its opening weekend taking £4.04m in its half term opening week and £1.45m in its second weekend taking £5.89m after 10 days. Being directed by Wes Anderson was much quirkier playing better to adults than children who preferred Disney’s Up which had taken 60% more than Fantastic Mr Fox opening in its third weekend.

Tim Burton’s Charlie and the Chocolate Factory opened 31st July 2005 with £7.97m taking £14.98m over its opening 7 days while The BFG took £11.11m. Might look a lot less but The BFG had a lot more competition than Charlie and the Chocolate Factory which only The Skelton Key opening against it and Herbie: Fully Loaded opening in its second weekend.

2005 was also the year of Steven Spielberg’s War of the World which took £30.4m which The BFG is likely to overtake with a £30m+ final box office likely. 

While in the US The BFG suffered against the arrival of Finding Dory both are likely to perform strongly over the summer holidays. There are many more films being released over the next few weeks likely cannibalize themselves targeting similar older audience but only Swallows and Amazons and Nine Lives targeting young and family audiences.

  1. Star Trek Beyond £2,333,079 – total £10,220,202

Down 51.1% in its second weekend despite school holidays was expected with the arrival of Jason Bourne with Suicide Squad opening this weekend Jason Bourne and Star Trek Beyond are likely to suffer the most. 

Star Trek Beyond benefited from school holidays adding £3m+ Mon-Thurs which Star Trek in 2009 and Star Trek into Darkness didn’t have opening in May. While Star Trek Beyond took 33% less than both Star Trek and Star Trek Into Darkness in their second weekends which was similar to the US performance. 

In May 2009 Star Trek dropped 42% taking £3.46m in its second weekend with the arrival of Angels and Demons opening with £6.1m. After 12 days on release Star Trek had taken £12.1m

In May 2013 Star Trek Into Darkness dropped 56% taking £3.67m in its second weekend with the arrival of Fast & Furious 6 opening with £8.71m and The Great Gatsby £4.1m. After 12 days on release had taken £15.55m.

Even with school holiday Star Trek Beyond is likely to coming short of both recent films final box office in the UK Star Trek took £21.4m and Star Trek into Darkness £25.5m with a likely total box office of £15.78m harder to predict as school holidays make it much harder to compare with non-holiday openings.

  1. The Secret Life of Pets £730,349 – total £30,541,752

Down 39.6% in its sixth weekend even with the arrival of Finding Dory becoming the fifth film to take £30m this year;

After having four films taking over £30m last year (Jurassic World, Minions, Fast & Furious 7 and 50 Shades of Grey) its Universal Pictures UK’s first since Minions (after their massive 2016 was always going to be a holding year until 2017 which has many sequels of their 2015 hits Despicable Me 3, Fifty Shades Darker, Fast & Furious 8 and Pitch Perfect 3). Disney have two The Jungle Book, Captain America: Civil War, 20th Century Fox and Warner Bros have one Deadpool and Batman Vs Superman: Dawn of Justice.

Remaining films of 2016 likely to take £30m+ at UK box office are Finding Dory, Suicide Squad, Bridget Jones Baby, Doctor Strange, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them and Rogue One.  Last year only three £30m+ earners after Minions Inside Out, Spectre and Star Wars: The Force Awakens they took a total of £257.1m.

Finding Dory to perform similar to last year’s inside Out £38.91m. Suicide Squad and Doctor Strange similar to Captain America: Civil War and Batman Vs Superman: Dawn of Justice £14m+ opening £36m+ box office.

Bridget Jones Diary £41.6m in 2001 and Bridget Jones Edge of Reason £35.6m in 2004 opening with £10.44m (including £3.31m in previews). Bridget Jones baby likely to open similar to 50 Shades of Grey last year with £13.47m and go on to take similar £35m+.

Harry Potter fever is still as strong as it was 5 years ago after Deathly Hallows Part 2 was released Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them will continue the story for another three films likely to open to similar box office of Deathly Hallows £8.3m – £23m likely to take £70m+.

Star Wars: Rogue One will of course be huge but as it is an original story rather than part of the series could this work against it (there were the crazy rumours recently Disney wanted to lighten the tone of the film as they were unhappy but then fans cheered when they saw the new trailer during Star Wars: Celebrations last month in London) of course the fans will see it but unlike The Force Awakens rival studios have decided to open several films against it. Rogue one will of course open to huge numbers but maybe not to £33.9m of The Force Awakens and the £123m total.

The big question is will Fantastic Beasts + Rogue One = Spectre + The Force Awakens

Also released

League of Gods – Sony Pictures – £8,349 from 14 screens

World Cup’66 – £35,959 from 114 screens

Other box office news:

This weekend’s top 10 box office took £23,366,167 up 45.6% from last weekend £16,044,946; 

Weekend was up 54.7% from same weekend last year (£15,097,286) when Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation £5,330,000 and Hot Pursuit £311,000 opened.

Next weekend 2015: Fantastic Four £2,700,000 and The Gift £584,293 opened.

June admissions

19% down from 2015; The Secret Life of Pets, Independence Day: Resurgence, The Conjuring 2, Warcraft: The Beginning and Me Before You couldn’t match the success of last year’s Jurassic World, Minions and Spy in 2015.

After the first 6 months of 2016 admissions are 5% down from 2015 but 5% up from 2014, this weekend Finding Dory is likely to do similar to Inside Out last summer and Jason Bourne similar to Mission Impossible Rogue Nation. August 2016 looks more positive than 2015 with Suicide Squad and Life on the Road with The Shallows, Lights Out and Swallows and Amazons likely to do better than The Man From U.N.C.L.E. and Straight Outta Compton.

Autumn 2015 top 10 biggest films in 2015 took over £360m at the box office.

Legend, The Martian, Hotel Transylvania, Everest Spectre, Mockingjay Part 2, The Lady in the Van, The Good Dinosaur, Star Wars The Force Awakens, Snoopy and Daddy’s Home.

Autumn 2016 top 10 biggest films

Bridget Jones Baby, The Girl on the Train, Inferno, Storks, Trolls, Doctor Strange, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Moana, Rogue One and Passengers.

But are unlikely to match the box office heights of last year even with Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them and Rogue One both likely to do £80m+.

Complete UK Box office top 10 – July 29th -31st 2016

 UKBOaug12016

 

US Box Office

  1. Universal Pictures – Jason Bourne – opens with $60m; receiving A- CinemaScore but average reviews will likely suffer similar second weekend drop as Star Trek Beyond did with Suicide Squad as all three are targeting similar audiences; nine years ago The Bourne Ultimatum opened with $69.2m so seems crazy to believe its opening will be celebrated but it will be; same weekend last year Mission Impossible Rogue Nation opened with $55.5m but will hold far better than Jason Bourne.

  1. Paramount Pictures – Star Trek Beyond opens $59.6m; received A- CinemaScore and surprising positive reviews still failed to – dropped 49.5% – $24m – $105.7m; after 10 days Star Trek into Darkness in 2013 had taken 27.6% more with $146.1m and 2009’s Star Trek 28.1% $147.1m;

  1. STX – Bad Moms – opened with $23.4m; receiving A CinemaScore; strong opening for a female focused comedy originally Paramount Pictures had US rights for the film but surprisingly let go of rights as they did with The Little Prince to Netflix; it is STX biggest opening ever who have plans to compete directly with studios with The Edge of Seventeen and The Space Between Us upcoming both generating good buzz.

  1. Universal – The Secret Life of Pets – dropped 38.5% – $18.2m – $296.1m;

  1. Warner Bros – Lights Out – dropped 50.2% – $10.8m – $42.8m;

  1. 20th Century Fox – Ice Age: Collusion Course – dropped 50.9% – $10.5m – $42.1m;

  1. Sony Pictures – Ghostbusters – dropped 53.4% – $9.8m – $106.1m; one positive is that it will this week overtake Ghostbusters 2 1989’s box office but impossible to compare with the 2016 reboot.

  1. Lionsgate – Nerve – opened $9m – $15.1m; receive A CinemaScore;

  1. Walt Disney – Finding Dory – dropped 41.7% – $4.2m – $469.1m.

  1. Warner Bros – The Legend of Tarzan – dropped 63.4% – $2.4m – $121.8m;

Opened on limited release

Sony Classics – Equity – $80,729 from 4 screens

Expanded

Lionsgate – Café Societyup 164.7% adding 515 screens$2.2m – $3.9m

 

Bleecker Street – Captain Fantastic up 68.1% adding 446 screens $1.1m – total $2.4m