- Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One – £10,391,016 – NE
Took £4,047,040 from 4 days of previews (39% of opening); £1.15m Mon (11.06%); £1.09m Tues (10.5%); £0.98m Weds (9.43%); £0.83m Thurs (7.98%); £1.7m Fri (16.36%); £2.8m Sat (26.94%) and £1.8m Sun (17.32%) and took £792k on second Mon (29% drop); £817k Tues (21.5% drop) £12m total after 8 days.
Opened in 52 IMAX cinemas taking about 12% of the weekend BO similar to Top Gun: Maverick.
95th biggest opening between The Hangover Part II and Ice Age: Continental Drift (close to I am Legend, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, Dunkirk and Incredibles) and 160th biggest opening inflated between Minions The Rise of Gru and The Bourne Ultimatum (close to The Blair Witch Project, Batman Forever, Avatar and Batman and Robin).
145th biggest Fri-Sun opening between Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa and Men In Black (close to Die Another Day, The Day After Tomorrow, The World Is Not Enough and X-Men: The Last Stand) and 316th inflated between Gladiator and Ransom (close to Batman Returns, Twister, Lethal Weapon 3 and Terminator 2: Judgement Day); of course, it’s not as simple as taking off previews as a 7-day opening will share the audience over the 7 days, that said due to its length many would wait to see it Fri-Sun as they did with Avatar: The Way of Water.
3rd biggest opening of 2023 between Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse and Ant-Man 3.
12th widest opening in the UK (718 cinemas) similar to Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again, Mary Poppins Returns, Rocketman and Super Mario Bros; 22nd 700+ opening since 2017’s Star Wars: The Last Jedi.
While it’s impossible to make comparisons with previous Mission Impossible films as Mission Impossible took £382,333 from previews Thursday; Mission Impossible II took £445,631; Mission Impossible III £613,856; all were one evening show on Thursday night, but then Ghost Protocol opened Monday; Rogue Nation opened Thursday and Fallout opened on Wednesday.
As Ghost Protocol opened Boxing Day against The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (opened #3 £4,325,594) and the weekend after Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows (£2,546,529 #3) makes it hard to compare with Dead Reckoning as they both played to a similar audience and opening 12 years later 30%+ ticket inflation.
Dead Reckoning had a 65% increase from Friday to Saturday was always expected given the lengthy running time as with Avatar: The Way of Water many will wait until the weekend to see it and there will likely be a similar Fri to Sat increase this week with Oppenheimer.
Dead Reckoning has all IMAX/PLF for 10 days until Oppenheimer, after the huge media coverage the film received rave reviews which was similar to last year’s Top Gun: Maverick expected it to have a similar opening. But Dead Reckoning took £4.05m from 4 days of previews, 14.5% less than Top Gun: Maverick took over 2 days (£4,735,406) and being 40 minutes short performed far stronger during weekdays. Expected Dead Reckoning to take about £2m Mon-Thurs but took less than half each day.
Opened in 717 cinemas Paramount Pictures’ second widest opening after Top Gun Maverick (741)
In 2018 Mission: Impossible Fallout also opened in a crowded marketplace opening #1 with £7,300,103 with Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! #2 £7,104,808 2nd weekend (27% drop); Incredibles 2 #3 £5,146,128 (24% drop) and Hotel Transylvania 3: A Monster Vacation opening #4 £3,449,876 with Andre Rieu’s 2018 Maastricht Concert: Amore #5 £1,486,528.
In 2015 Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation opened #1 £5,351,344; Inside Out #2 £3,574,424 2nd weekend; Southpaw #3 £1,129,608; Ant-Man #4 £1,126,080; Minions #5 £1,007,186.
Tom Cruise’s last 37 films took almost £450m (£750m+ inflated) 20% from Top Gun: Maverick (£83.6m) while the 7 Mission Impossible films have taken £125m+ (£180m) combined.
While Dead Reckoning was sandwiched between Dial of Destiny and Oppenheimer due to being dated after both (January 21st, 2022, while Oppenheimer was dated 8th October 2021 and Dial of Destiny October 18th, 2021); Dead Reckoning’s release date was moved several times originally dated July 23, 2021 (February 2019), November 19, 2021 (April 2020), May 27, 2022 (April 2021) and September 30, 2022 (September 2021). Dead Reckoning Part Two opens June 28, 2024, with Inside Out 2 opening June 14th and Despicable Me 4 July 3rd with Twisters opening three weeks later.
In January 2019 Tom Cruise announced the seventh and eighth Mission: Impossible films would be shot back-to-back and would be released on July 23, 2021, and August 5, 2022
Filming began in February 2020 stopping and starting several times to COVID, in December 2020 during filming in London an audio recording of Cruise shouting to crew members not following COVID rules was released and was likened to his Les Grossman character from Tropic Thunder.
When Mission Impossible 7 was given the title Dead Reckoning it reminded me of a film that was set to star Sylvester Stallone, and Kim Basinger and directed by Ridley Scott in 1990 of the same name, the plot involved the creature in the film was humanoid with a genetically altered brain that was intended to be used as the ‘hard drive’ in an artificial intelligence project and it was going to be Aliens on a Train.
It was one of several Carolco projects that were never made (including Bartholomew Vs Neff with Stallone and John Candy directed by John Hughes in 1991 Stallone left to do Cliffhanger and then Candy died in 1994) Ridley Scott left due to ‘creative differences’ and directed Thelma and Louise instead.
The middle weekend of July has been the unofficial start of the summer since 1992’s Batman Returns (opened £2,774,796 and £6,889,447 inflated), 1993’s Jurassic Park (£4,875,137 and £12,104,312) 1995’s Batman Forever (£4,714,153 and £10,796,494), 1997’s Jurassic Park: The Lost World (£5,970,014 and £11,690,666), 1998’s Godzilla (£4,176,960 and £8,260,638), 2004’s Spider-Man 2 (£8,766,902 and £15,561,739), 2006’s Superman Returns (£4,337,637 and £7,098,761) and then several Harry Potter films from 2007.
As it’s the weekend before the summer school holidays start. Of course, this was when films would be held back a couple of months from their US release like Star Wars: The Phantom Menace (£7,537,914 and £14,270,113) in 1999 rather than as they have done over the last decade open day and date with the US.
Last weekend was the biggest top 10 since 07 April 2023 (£21,185,037) when Super Mario Bros opened with £15,691,810, I expected Dead Reckoning to have a bigger opening over 7 days than Top Gun: Maverick £15,931,497 took over 5 days and be the second £20m+ weekend of the year. This will happen this weekend with Barbie having the second biggest opening of the year despite opening against Oppenheimer which was expected to be the big film for the weekend as Barbie looks like it’s selling the tickets to one for Oppenheimer.
- 2. Elemental – £2,477,972 – £6,630,843
Down 18.7% in the second weekend
316th biggest second weekend between Rocketman and Mrs Doubtfire (close to Babe, Roald Dahl’s Matilda The Musical, Jumanji (1996) and The Greatest Showman) and 597th biggest inflated between The Hulk and Pitch Perfect 3 (close to Stuart Little, Flubber, My Girl and Flubber).
15th biggest Pixar second weekend between Monsters University (£2,791,078) and Coco (£2,470,000); close to Ratatouille (£3,056,938); Brave (£2,371,691) and Lightyear (£2,290,999).
59th biggest animated second weekend between A Christmas Carol and Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (close to Despicable Me, The Lion King (1994), The Lego Movie: The Second Part and Ralph Breaks The Internet) and 92nd biggest inflated between Robots and The Addams Family (close to Pocahontas, The Jungle Book (1993 re-issue), Mulan and The Hunchback Of Notre Dame).
Despite Elemental opening 60% less than 2015’s Inside Out (£7,376,513) as with most Pixar films it will have long legs and the film’s opening over the next few weeks will have little effect on Elemental until The Haunted Mansion in mid-August. Comparisons could be made with 2013 Monsters University which had a disappointing opening (£3,463,917) due to a heatwave but held similarly strongly in the second weekend £2,791,078 down 19.4% taking £8,633,957 29% of £29,768,407. While it’s unlikely Elemental will take as much £20m+ by the end of August should be likely, as the school holidays start on Friday box office won’t be limited to Sat/Sun.
Surely the holds of both Elemental and Dial of Destiny show that it was a poor (and costly) decision to premiere both at the Cannes Film Festival as they predictably received a mixed reception, far harsher than the local critical reviews they both received.
The 23 Pixar films that have had cinema releases have taken over £715m since 1996’s Toy Story and £1bn inflated.
- 3. Indiana Jones And The Dial Of Destiny – £1,765,710 – £16,347,999
Dropped 42% in the third weekend.
As with Elemental Dial of Destiny, after having a softer-than-expected opening it has held far better over in its second and third weekends.
276th biggest third weekend between Scooby-Doo Too and X-Men: Days of Future Past (close to Blade Runner 2049, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Logan and Mad Max: Fury Road) and 499th inflated between While You Were Sleeping and War for the Planet of The Apes (close to Jerry Maguire, Memphis Belle, Lethal Weapon 3 and Star Trek: Generations).
2008’s Kingdom of the Crystal Skull dropped 51% £2,671,885 #2 (£4,095,178 inflated) £32,704,397 of £40,285,476 (£61,745,239 inflated)
1989’s The Last Crusade dropped 35.7% £950,917 #1 (£3,295,134 inflated) and £6,688,795 of £15,923,168 (£54,466,802 inflated)
In 1981 Raiders of the Lost Ark was the #6 biggest film in the UK taking opening with £983,710 (£4,993,738 inflated) taking £3.31m (£17.1m inflated) and #1 in the US; #1 Superman II; #2 For Your Eyes Only; #3 Flash Gordon; #4 Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs; #5 Any Which Way You Can; #6 Clash of the Titans; #7 Private Benjamin; #8 Raiders of the Lost Ark; #9 The Elephant Man; #10 Tess.
In 1984 Temple of Doom was #1 biggest film in the UK taking £9.25m (£41.3m inflated) and #2 in the US (behind Ghostbusters); #2 Never Say Never; #3 The Jungle Book; #4 Police Academy; #5 Sudden Impact; #6 Terms of Endearment; #7 Educating Rita; #8 Trading Places; #9 Greystoke: The Legend of the Apes; #10 Jaws III.
In 1989 The Last Crusade was #1 biggest film in the UK (£15.92m) and #2 in the US (behind Batman); #2 Who Framed Roger Rabbit (£15.61m); #3 Batman (£12.03m); #4 Rain Man (£9.66m); #5 The Naked Gun (£7.74m); #6 Licence To Kill (£7.55m); #7 Lethal Weapon 2 (£6.74m); #8 Twins (£6.55m); #9 Dead Poets Society (£5.87m); #10 Cocktail (£5.76m).
In 2008 Kingdom of the Crystal Skull was #4 biggest film in the UK (£40.28m) and #3 in the US ($317.1m); #1 Mamma Mia! (£68.9m); #2 Quantum of Solace (£51.1m); #3 The Dark Knight (£49.31m); #4 The Crystal Skull; #5 Sex and the City (£26.23m); #6 Hancock (£24.41m); #7 Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (£23.3m); #8 High School Musical 3 (£22.63m); #9 Wall·E (£22.2m); #10 Kung Fu Panda (£19.63m).
386th biggest film between Scooby-Doo Too and Elf (close to Mad Max: Fury Road, Trainspotting 2, Forrest Gump and Bad Boys For Life) and 692nd biggest inflated between The Good Dinosaur and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (close to Raiders of the Lost Ark, The X- Files, Rocky and Walk the Line).
The Kingdom of the Crystal Skull was #1 for only 1 week toppled by Sex and the City (£8,767,265); The Last Crusade was #1 for 6 weeks toppled by Batman also had a bigger opening £2,058,159; but it still took a huge £83,260 at the Empire 1 Leicester Square in its 7th weekend taking £978,995; played at the Empire for 21 weeks taking £1,452,298 taking £15,794 in its 21st weekend Empire 2.
- 4. Insidious: The Red Door – £1,516,987 – £5,128,647
Dropped 33.4% in the second weekend.
Strong second-weekend hold normally would expect Horrors to drop over 50% in their second weekend but as with all other films in the top 10, The Red Door dropped lower than expected.
618th biggest second weekend between Mary, Queen of Scots and The Grudge (close to The Fugitive, Die Hard with a Vengeance, Labyrinth and Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade) and 1,074th inflated between Tomb Raider 2 and Honey, I Blew Up the Kid (close to Much Ado About Nothing, Point-Break (1991), Moonwalker and Police Academy 5: Assignment Miami Beach).
24th biggest second-weekend horror between The Invisible Man and The Grudge (close to The Others, Halloween, Annabelle and Final Destination 3) and 52nd inflated between The Faculty and The Amityville Horror (close to Halloween: H20, Scream 3, Nightmare on Elm Steet III and Freddy’s Dead The Final Nightmare).
2011’s Insidious dropped 8% taking £1,315,358 #3 and £3,872,900 of £7,035,245
2013’s Insidious 2 dropped 62% taking £1,076,295 #2 and £4,943,940 of £6,996,519
2015’s Insidious Chapter 3 dropped 51% taking £692,560 #4 and £2,836,965 of £3,874,112
2018’s Insidious: The Last Key dropped 44% taking £1,025,740 #8 and £3,663,623 of £5,040,84
Horror has been one of the strongest-performing genres of films since cinemas reopened three years ago, with 19 wide-released horrors including Evil Dead Rises, Scream VI, M3gan, The Menu, Smile, Nope, The Black Phone, Scream, Candyman, A Quiet Place Part II and The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It taking over £100m. There are 6 more due for release this year Last Voyage of the Demeter, The Nun II, The Exorcist: Believer, Five Nights at Freddy’s, Saw X and Thanksgiving.
1,345th biggest film between Cruel Intentions and Candyman (2021) (close to Cocaine Bear, Presumed Innocent, Groundhog Day and Shallow Grave) and 1,890th biggest inflated between Over the Top and The Rocketeer (close to Highlander, Pacific Heights, Final Analysis and I Still Know What You Did Last Summer).
- 5. Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse – £687,116 – £28,871,089
Down 28.8% in the seventh weekend
90th biggest seventh weekend between The Hangover and Calendar Girls (close to Finding Dory, The Mask, Avengers Assemble and Men In Black) and the 196th biggest inflated between Cats and Dogs and Speed (close to Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me, Parenthood, Batman and Cliffhanger).
6th biggest comic-book seventh weekend between The Mask and Avengers Assemble (close to Black Panther, The Dark Knight Rises, Men in Black and Captain Marvel) and 11th biggest inflated between Captain Marvel and Batman (close to The Dark Knight, Batman Forever, Batman and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 1).
158th biggest between Shrek and Sing (close to Monsters University, Chicken Run, The Boss Baby and The World Is Not Enough) and 331st biggest inflated between Hitch and Wreck-It Ralph (close to Lethal Weapon 3, Total Recall (1990), Ghostbusters 2 and The Blair Witch Project).
29th biggest comic-book film between Man of Steel and Guardians of the Galaxy (close to Man of Steel, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 1, Spider-Man and Spider-Man 2) and 43rd inflated between Superman III and Batman and Robin (close to Spider-Man Homecoming, The Amazing Spider-Man, Batman Begins and The Amazing Spider-Man 2).
Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse opens March 29th against Mickey 17 the new film from Oscar-winning director Bong Joon-ho little is known about this sci-fi film starring Robert Pattinson. But expectations are high after Parasite.
UK box office in detail
This weekend’s top 10 box office took £18,187,968 up 58.7% from last weekend’s £11,461,680: 2,282,054 admissions up 58.7% from 1,438,103.
223rd biggest top 10 of the last 21 years (out of 1,111) between 22 November 2002 #1 Die Another Day £9,122,344 (50.1% of top 10) and 27 December 2013 #1 The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug £5,450,824 (30.1%) and 289th biggest inflation inflated between 13 December 2019 #1 Jumanji: The Next Level £9,464,661 (58.3%) and 25 February 2011 #1 Gnomeo and Juliet £2,502,806 (18.1%).
The top 3 took £14,634,440 80.5% of the top 10; Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part 1 57.13% (£10,391,016); Elemental 13.62% (£2,477,972); Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 9.71% (£1,765,710);
179th highest percentage (57.13%) #1 between 23 May 2014 X-Men: Days of Future Past (57.22%) and 27 May 2011 The Hangover Part II (57.1%). (
178th biggest admissions #1 (1,303,766) between 27 December 2019 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (1,309,598) and 26 July 2002 (Austin Powers in Goldmember (1,302,093).
Up 87.2% from 2022 (£9,715,916); The Railway Children Return (£365,481); #1 Thor: Love and Thunder £4,063,773 2nd week 67% drop (56% without previews) 701 screens (41.83% of top 10)
Up 223.8% from 2021; (£5,617,410); Space Jam: A New Legacy (£1,363,556); The Forever Purge (£720,032); The Croods 2: A New Age (£696,563); Summer of Soul (£62,562); #1 Black Widow £1,801,017 2nd week 649 screens (32.1% of top 10)
Up 9,298.2% from 2020 (£193,567) Star Wars: The Empire Strikes Back (40th Anniversary) (£50,406); Black Water: Abyss 10.6% (£28,053); #1 Onward £49,271 4th week split over 5 months 123 screens (25.45% of top 10)
Up 37.5% from 2019; (£13,229,066); Annabelle Comes Home (£2,223,482); Stuber (£211,274); The Dead Don’t Die (£192,917) The Matrix: 20th Anniversary (4K Restoration) (£163,812); Jaws (Re: 2019) (£34,094); The Matrix Reloaded (4K Restoration) (£876); The Matrix Revolutions (4K Restoration) (£583); #1 Spider-Man: Far from Home £4,396,516 2nd week 647 screens (33.2% of top 10)
Up 28.1% from 2018: (£14,198,894); Incredibles 2 (£9,650,000); Skyscraper (£1,829,830); The Secret of Marrowbone (£171,161); First Reformed (£73,233); Vertigo (60th Anniversary) (£10,845); #1 Incredibles 2 £9,650,000 1st week 664 screens (67.9% of top 10)
Down 5.3% from 2017: (£19,205,602); War for the Planet of the Apes (£7,195,773); Cars 3 (£2,625,000); The Beguiled (£414,924); #1 War for the Planet of the Apes £7,195,773 1st week 597 screens (37.4% of top 10)
Up 13.3% from 2016: (£16,046,904); Ghostbusters (£4,388,944); Ice Age: Collision Course (£3,780,694); Dirty Dancing (Secret Cinema) (£946,086); Keanu (£13,736); #1 Ghostbusters £4,388,944 1st week 581 screens (27.3% of the top 10)
Up 39.1% from 2015; (£13,074,413); Ant-Man (£4,011,345); Andre Rieu’s 2015 Maastricht Concert (£1,107,000); The Gallows (£335,875); Self/Less (£215,247); Thomas & Friends: Sodor’s Legend of the Lost Treasure (£155,354); True Story (£137,463); 13 Minutes (£12,572); #1 Ant-Man £4,011,345 1st week 555 screens (30.6% of top 10)
Down 20.7% from 2014: (£22,934,264); Transformers: Age of Extinction (£11,751,427); How to Train Your Dragon 2 (£7,779,040); Begin Again (£456,438); Boyhood (£332,834); #1 Transformers: Age of Extinction £11,751,427 1st week 533 screens (51.2% of top 10)
Up 74.3% from 2013: (£10,431,833); Monsters University (£3,463,917); Pacific Rim (£2,193,500); We Steal Secrets: The Story of Wikileaks (£19,309); Trap for Cinderella (£2,845); #1 Monsters University £3,463,917 1st week 525 screens (33.2% of top 10)
Down 0.5% from 2012 (£18,271,575); Ice Age: Continental Drift (£10,087,052); Magic Mike (£2,651,015); Seeking a Friend for the End of the World (£357,200); Chariots of Fire (Re: 2012) (£63,857); #1 Ice Age: Continental Drift £10,087,052 1st week 522 screens (55.21% of top 10)
Down 38.1% from 2011; (£29,355,666); Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (£23,753,171); Cell 211 (£21,479); #1 Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 £23,753,171 1st week 582 screens (80.9% of top 10)
Up 20.3% from 2010: (£15,116,235); Inception (£5,912,814); The Concert (£38,053); #1 Inception £5,912,814 1st week 452 screens (39.1% of top 10)
Down 34.1% from 2009; (£27,606,395); Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (£19,784,924); Moon (£157,867); The Informers (£6,149); #1 Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince £19,784,924 1st week 584 screens (71.6% of top 10)
Up 9.4% from 2008; (£16,622,538); Mamma Mia! (£6,594,058); Journey to the Centre of the Earth (£953,878); Forbidden Kingdom (£676,217); #1 Mamma Mia! £6,594,058 1st week 496 screens (39.6% of top 10)
Down 17.8% from 2007: (£22,106,427); Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (£16,493,305); Moliere (£76,061); Macbeth (£2,093); #1 Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix £16,493,305 1st week 567 screens (74.6% of top 10)
Up 52.4% from 2006; (£11,936,216); Superman Returns (£4,337,637); Atomised (£25,823); #1 Pirates of the Caribbean 2: Dead Man’s Chest £6,048,087 2nd week 514 screens 56% drop (50.6% of top 10)
Up 62.5% from 2005: (£11,195,244); Madagascar (£5,431,639); Wedding Crashers (£2,182,597); Festival (£34,010); #1 Madagascar £5,431,639 1st week 505 screens (48.5% of top 10)
Up 24.3% from 2004 (£14,628,009); Spider-Man 2 (£8,766,902); The Prince and Me (£366,942); Nathalie (£39,084); #1 Spider-Man 2 £8,766,902 1st week 504 screens (59.9% of top 10)
Up 272% from 2003 (£4,889,023); Daddy Day Care (£796,259); Veronica Guerin (£271,996); Whale Rider (£121,610); The In-Laws (£108,031); #1 Charlie’s Angels: Full Throttle £1,581,273 2nd week 475 screens 52% drop (32.3% of top 10)
Up 74.8% from 2002 (£10,406,087); Scooby-Doo (£5,129,109); Resident Evil (£801,628); Bad Company (£382,949); Nine Queens (£49,438); #1 Scooby-Doo £5,129,109 1st week 472 screens (49.2% of top 10)
Next Week 2022 (£11,455,674); Where the Crawdads Sing (£1,395,704); Prima Facie – NT Live 2022 (£447,014); #1 Minions: The Rise of Gru £3,086,374 2nd #1 split over 4 weeks (26.94% of top 10)
US Box Office
- Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part 1 – Paramount Pictures
Opened $54.68m; received positive reviews (96% Rotten Tomatoes) and A CinemaScore
239th biggest opening between G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra and Divergent; Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation #226 $55.2m ($69.4m inflated); Mission: Impossible II #209 $57.84m ($113m); Mission: Impossible Fallout #189 $61.23m ($70.4m); Mission: Impossible III #295 $47.74m ($76.75m); Mission: Impossible #322 $45.43m ($108.24m).
EntTelligence reported 5.6m cinemagoers compared to 6.4m for Dial of Destiny 5 day opening as more cinemagoers saw Indy in standard formats rather than premium; 18% saw it before 1 pm; 33% between 1 pm- 5 pm; 32% between 5 pm- 8 pm and 17% after 8 pm.
Took $7m from previews on Tuesday (Mission: Impossible: Fallout took $6m previews) while Dial of Destiny took $7.2m from Thursday previews taking $60m from 3 day and $83.5m from 5-day opening.
Took $15.5m from Wednesday and $23.8m after 2 days; Fallout took $22m from the opening day but that was Friday making comparisons hard.
2011’s Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol $12.8m opened in 425 IMAX cinemas exclusively taking $29.55m wide over Christmas Day and $44.11m 4 days; so impossible to make any comparisons with Ghost Protocol while again impossible to compare with the first three films, so can only really compare with Fallout and Rogue Nation.
Dead Reckoning had a similar audience breakdown as Dial of Destiny with 55+ having the largest demographic (Mission at 22% Vs Indy at 25%; males 25+ 46% Vs 43%; 18-34s is 37% Vs 36% and this will be the similar audience Oppenheimer will attract next week while younger audiences and females will be watching Barbie.
42% of BO came from IMAX/PLF; 14% from IMAX ($11m)
Ahead of release was expected to open with up to $90m but Dial of Destiny was not opened as tracking was seen as a disappointment. With Dead Reckoning, there have been double standards with analysis despite its opening lower than expected it still has a strong opening as they expect it to have longer legs, but don’t know how it will hold against Oppenheimer losing IMAX/PLF screens. The industry is far too quick to call out a flop and a hit as the key weekend for films is its second and third weekends as these films will always open, but it’s how they will drop in their following weekends which is far more important.
Previous Mission Impossible films have held strongly in the weeks after opening.
1996’s Mission Impossible dropped 52.4% and 52.2% in the second and third weekends (the third was against The Rock)
2000’s Mission Impossible II dropped 53.3% and 36.2% in the 2nd and 3rd weekends (3rd was against Gone In 60 Seconds
2006’s Mission Impossible III dropped 47.6% and 54.6% in the 2nd and 3rd weekends (3rd was against The Da Vinci Code
2011’s Mission: Impossible: Ghost Protocol is harder to compare as had an exclusive opening weekend in IMAX cinemas holding strong despite immediate competition from Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and then held strongly in 4th and 5th weekends down 32.5% and 41.2%; stayed in top 5 for 5 weeks as many more films opened in the weeks after.
2015’s Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation dropped 48.7% and 39.7% in 2nd and 3rd weekend (3rd was against Straight Outta Compton) and stayed in the top 5 for 7 weeks
2018’s Mission Impossible: Fallout dropped 42.3% and 45.2% in 2nd and 3rd weekend (3rd was against The Meg $45.4m)
With Oppenheimer and Barbie, Mission Impossible is in a very different position than they have been since Ghost Protocol, while Ghost Protocol held well it did benefit from holding on to IMAX screens and Dead Reckoning is unlikely to be able to get back into IMAX screens until the end of August.
Tom Cruise films have taken $5.2bn at the US box office since making his acting debut in 1981’s Endless Love and $11.54bn worldwide; 6 Mission Impossible films have taken $1.155bn in the US and $3.6bn worldwide.
In the late 80s and 90s, Tom Cruise was the world’s biggest film star starring in Top Gun, Rain Man, Days of Thunder, A Few Good Men and The Firm.
While Tom Cruise is Paramount Pictures MVP now it was very different in 2006 after the performance of Mission Impossible 3 when he jumped on Oprah’s couch expressing his love for Katie Holmes and Paramount ended their 14-year relationship with Tom Cruise. He then starred in Lions for Lambs and Valkyrie (his first film with Christopher McQuarrie) both for MGM in-between the two he appeared as Les Grossman in Ben Stiller’s Tropic Thunder in 2008 (made by Dreamworks and released by Paramount)
Action-comedy Knight & Day underwhelmed and then returned in Mission Impossible Ghost Protocol in 2011 in the studio’s 100th anniversary and biggest ever year at the box office. Jack Reacher followed in 2012 taking $480m in the US and $218m worldwide and in 2016 the sequel Never Go Back in 2016 taking $60m in the US and $162n worldwide was probably made to keep him happy as it was a pet project of Tom Cruise and Paramount were desperate for another Mission Impossible film and the Top Gun 2.
It could have been very different as in 2006 Paramount wanted to reboot the franchise with a new team and a new agent groomed to replace Ethan Hunt with Jeremy Renner, he was cast in 2011’s Ghost Protocol and had it performed similarly to Mission Impossible 3 he could have replaced him.
Mission: Impossible: Fallout opened with $94.6m from 36 territories and $155.8m worldwide; had the biggest global opening of Mission Impossible ahead of 2011’s Mission: Impossible: Ghost Protocol $131.5m.
Opened with $155m from 70 territories; China $25.8m; Korea $14.2m; UK $13.8m; India $9m; Australia $8.3m; France $7.7m; Taiwan $7m.
Took $25m worldwide from IMAX including $14m internationally, the best for the film series which is surprising as 2011’s Ghost Protocol opened exclusively for a week in IMAX cinemas before expanding into regular cinemas.
- Insidious: The Red Door – Sony Pictures
Dropped 61% in the second weekend taking $13m and $58.08m
875th biggest second weekend between Baby Driver and Phenomenon (close to The Ring Two #807 $13.61m; Freddy vs. Jason #825 $13.4m; Gothika #880 $12.86m and I Know What You Did Last Summer #913 $12.5m).
The Devil Inside $33.73m; Saw III $33.61m; Scream 2 $32.92m and Saw IV $31.75m)
2010’s Insidious dropped 29.4% taking $9.37m and $26.72m of $54m and $100.1m worldwide
2013’s Insidious: Chapter 2 dropped 65.7% taking $13.8m and $60.15m of $83.58m and $161.91m worldwide
2015’s Insidious: Chapter 3 dropped 67.8% taking $7.31m and $37.38m of $52.21m and $112.98m worldwide
2018’s Insidious: The Last Key dropped 58% taking $12.41m and $48.66m of $67.74m and $167.88m worldwide
Took $21.5m internationally $64.5m total and $122.6m worldwide.
- Indiana Jones And the Dial of Destiny – Disney
Dropped 55% in the third weekend $12.26m and $145.62m
468th biggest third weekend between Jurassic Park III and Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation (close to Lethal Weapon 2, Minority Report, No Time to Die and Argo).
Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom #484 $12.01m; Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull #116 $22.79m; Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade #268 $16.04m; and Raiders of the Lost Ark took $7.06m.
426th biggest film between Lilo & Stitch and The Santa Clause; Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom #284 $179.9m; Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade #237 $197.17m; Raiders of the Lost Ark #177 $225.7m and Kingdom of the Crystal Skull #88 $317.1m.
898th biggest inflated between Unbroken and Bumblebee; #18 Raiders of the Lost Ark $728.1m; #68 Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom $491m; #82 Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade $453.2m; Kingdom of the Crystal Skull #123 $405m.
10th biggest 2023 film between Fast X and Elemental; 96th biggest Disney between Lilo & Stitch and The Santa Clause.
2008’s Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull dropped 49.1% taking $22.79m ($40m) and $253.01m ($365m) taking $317.1m ($470m) and $790.65m worldwide ($1.2bn)
1989’s Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade dropped 24.4% taking $16.04m ($48m) and $102.81m ($310m) taking $197.17m ($520m) and $474.17m worldwide ($1.25bn)
1984’s Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom dropped 26.7% taking $12.01m ($45m) and $88.77m ($290m) taking $179.87m ($565m) and $333.1m worldwide ($1.1bn)
1981’s Raiders of the Lost Ark took $7.06m dropped 12% and $34.9m of $248.15m ($940m) and $389.92m worldwide ($1.5bn)
In 1981 after Raiders of the Lost Ark Variety said it would have to be one of the biggest films of all time to register a profit for Paramount, showing nothing has changed over the past 41 years. The budget for Dial of Destiny is about $300m so would need to take over $1bn worldwide to turn a profit.
Kingdom of the Crystal Skull took $473.55m internationally and $790.65m worldwide ($1.2bn)
1989’s Last Crusade took $277m internationally; 1984’s Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom in$153.5m; 1981’s Raiders of the Lost Ark $141.8m.
Took $17m (down 47%) from 52 territories $157m and $302.42m worldwide; UK $21m; France $15.1m; Japan $12.8m; Germany $9.9m; Spain $9.4m.
$11m from IMAX worldwide including $5m internationally.
536th biggest worldwide between G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra and Passengers; Kingdom of the Crystal Skull #104; Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade #262; Raiders of the Lost Ark #387; Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom #466.
13th biggest 2023 between Elemental and Creed III; 106th biggest Disney between Mulan and G-Force (just overtaken John Carter and The Lone Ranger).
- Elemental – Disney
Dropped 9% in the fourth weekend taking $9.09m and $125.68m
161st biggest fifth weekend between Monsters, Inc. and Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (close to A Bug’s Life #131 $9.98m; Toy Story #138 $9.85m; The Incredibles #162 $9.01m and Ratatouille #281 $7.45m.
96th biggest animated film between Bee Movie and Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs; 551st biggest film between Safe House and The Truman Show; 1,082nd biggest inflated between Beethoven and Freddy vs. Jason; 11th biggest 2023 between Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny and Scream VI; 114th biggest Disney between Sweet Home Alabama and Good Morning Vietnam.
23 Pixar films have taken $6.3bn since 1995 ($8.5bn inflation inflated) and $15.2bn worldwide.
Took $28.2m from 48 territories $186.4m total and $312.08m worldwide; Korea $25.8m; China $15.4m; Mexico $13.5m; France $9m; Australia $8m; Brazil $6.9m; Germany $5.4m; Argentina $4.9m; Italy $4.8m; UK $3.8m.
98th biggest animated film worldwide between The Polar Express and The Lego Batman Movie; 507th biggest worldwide between The Polar Express and The Expendables 2; 12th biggest worldwide between Transformers: Rise of the Beasts and Dial of Destiny; 101st biggest Disney worldwide between The Proposal and Chicken Little.
UK Box Office Top 10
UK Box Office Preview
It’s hard to make comparisons between Barbie films that are similar like Enchanted (opened £2,547,975), Elf (£4,538,440) and The Truman Show (£2,210,999) about characters living in their world that find themselves in the real world or films like The Lego Movie (£8,051,140), Legally Blonde (£1,453,148), Clueless (£638,212), Josie and the Pussycats (£37,662), The House Bunny (£894,188), John Tucker Must Die (£845,633), Romy and Michele’s High School Reunion (£366,645) and Pleasantville (£322,622). Barbie is a Ronseal film, it does exactly what it says on the tin, it’s the perfect fun popcorn film, the perfect summer film as the reviews have shown, receiving many four and five-star reviews.
When Warner Bros dated Barbie on July 21st, 2023, in April 2022 everyone probably thought they were mad as there was surely going to be only one winner that weekend, Oppenheimer. In the months leading up to the release of the first teaser for The Lego Movie in 2013, the film was regularly mocked, but as with The Lego Movie teaser, the mocking stopped after the first teaser was released in December. Always think you can tell a lot from a teaser if it’s kept simple as it shows the studio believes in the film. The best teasers are the simple ones like the one for Austin Powers 2 in 1999, if you see one film this summer see Star Wars if you see two see Austin Powers.
Barbie is expected to have the biggest opening of the year in the UK (£15m+) similar to Super Mario Bros (opened with £15,691,810 but took £6,943,163 from previews taking £8,748,647 Fri-Sun and the second biggest opening in the US ($120m+) despite not having any IMAX screens as presales have been insane and all sold before embargo ended.
Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer has generated a lot of media coverage over recent weeks leading up to its UK premiere last Thursday after the cast walked off the red carpet as the SAG-AFTRA strike started.
Oppenheimer will likely have a similar opening as 2010s Inception (£5,912,814) and 2020’s Tenet (£5,335,654) rather than 2017’s Dunkirk (£10,023,720), Christopher Nolan’s biggest hits came when they open in a crowded marketplace in 2010. Inception was #1 for one week replaced by Toy Story 3 in its second weekend but had very long legs playing into September. So, while Tenet was never going to be the saviour of cinema as he and exhibitors believed opening it the weekend after Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part 1 and against Barbie would likely benefit it.
Exhibitors will be hoping Oppenheimer will have similar long legs to Inception playing in the top 10 for 8 weeks and Dunkirk for 10 weeks, rather than the 6 weeks Interstellar lasted, as the 100-day window will mean that it won’t be able to be released on VOD until at least Mid-October. While it will be interesting to see how exhibitors handle Oppenheimer after its opening three weeks as Christopher Nolan has given them everything, they wanted with the film the 100-day theatrical window so surely, they will need to play the film for 100 days?
As of Tuesday night 15, shows over the weekend were sold out at the BFI IMAX for Oppenheimer, the cinema has been the unofficial home of Christopher Nolan films since 2012’s The Dark Knight Rises took over £1 million in advance bookings at BFI IMAX in 5 weeks before opening selling 62,300 sales (£16 average today tickets are £24). 43 shows ahead of opening were sold out for The Dark Knight Rises including early morning screenings at 04.25 and 04.55; the film broke BFI IMAX records for highest first-day sales (24,754 tickets taking £409,838) and the highest first-week sales (38,658 tickets, taking £634,013) breaking the records previously set earlier in 2012 by Ridley Scott’s Prometheus and James Cameron’s Avatar in December 2009 sold 47,000 tickets, grossing £607,000 (£12.90 average).
It will be showing in about 51 other IMAX cinemas in the UK with IMAX taking about 15% of opening similar to Tenet.
With Oppenheimer also likely to open with £6m+ and a strong second weekend hold for Dead Reckoning (£4m+) and Elemental 3rd weekend (£1.5m+) this weekend will be one of the strongest weekends of cinema since 2019 as they play to all demographics and will likely help each other find wider audiences.
Over the last few weeks Tom Cruise, Christopher Nolan, Margot Robbie and Greta Gerwig have been buying tickets for their rival films to get people to see both of them under the hashtag Barbenheimer, this has also inspired many memes and huge social media coverage.
AMC said on July 10th 20,000 cinemagoers brought tickets for both Barbie and Oppenheimer via AMC Stubs (there were about 1m members in 2020) and on Tuesday, July 11th Vue said 19% of those who booked tickets to see Oppenheimer also bought tickets for Barbie.
This weekend will have the highest top 10 BO since 17 December 2021 £34,452,923 when Spider-Man: No Way Home took 92.6% (£31,899,232). The difference is this weekend’s new releases play to two different demographics Barbie to women young and old and Oppenheimer to men 35+, which is the same audience as Dead Reckoning so if it holds similar to previous Mission Impossible films then it would eat into Oppenheimer opening. While Elemental will also hold well in its fourth weekend as it plays to a younger audience than Barbie and is the start of the school holidays.
The top 10 should take about £26m which would be the 18th biggest top 10 ever similar to 26 October 2012 when Skyfall opened £20,180,369 (3,168,033 admissions) and 75.9% share of the top 10.
Will be the second the third £20m+ top 10 of 2023 after 07 April 2023 when Super Mario Bros opened. There were 5 £20m+ weekends in 2022 (Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Top Gun Maverick, Jurassic World: Dominion, Thor: Love and Thunder and Minions: The Rise of Gru). 3 £20m+ in 2021 (two for No Time to Die and Spider-Man No Way Home). 1 in 2020 (Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker) and 8 in 2019 (Captain Marvel, Avengers Endgame x2 weeks, Aladdin, Toy Story 4, Spider-Man: Far from Home, The Lion King x2 weeks, Joker, Frozen 2 and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker x2 weeks).
Barbie will show that films don’t need IMAX or PLF to open big and exhibitors will have very mixed feelings having had the put their 100% support towards Christopher Nolan as he is giving them exactly what they claim to want but looking over at Dead Reckoning and Barbie at what they are missing out on as Dead Reckoning would have played more weeks in IMAX. It’s also audiences who are missing out on not being able to see it in IMAX beyond its opening weekend. But the problem is the delusions of grandeur from Christopher Nolan believing he is the Messiah of cinema, even though Super Mario Bros and Barbie will both take more than Oppenheimer.
Variety estimated with its budget and marketing costs Oppenheimer will need to take at least $400m to make a profit; Christopher Nolan’s previous original films.
2020’s Tenet ($205m budget) took $58.5m in the US and $365.3m worldwide; 2017’s Dunkirk ($150m+ budget) took $189.74m in the US and $527m worldwide; 2014’s Interstellar ($165m+ budget) took $188m in the US and $773.43m worldwide; 2010’s Inception ($160m+ budget) took $292.58m in the US and $870.1m worldwide.
In September 2021 it was announced Universal Pictures would release Christopher Nolan’s next film but it came with several demands from the director including a budget of $100m an equal marketing budget, a theatrical window of at least 100 days, 20% of the first-dollar gross, and Universal couldn’t release another film either three weeks before or after. (The released Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken is June 30th and next is Last Voyage of the Demeter on August 11th) also, to release the film on film (70mm/35mm) and digital. IMAX 70 mm (30) 3 in the UK (BFI IMAX; Vue Manchester; Science Museum; standard 70 mm (113) and 35mm (80).
In there was a 1989 film about the Manhattan Project Fat Man and Little Boy (Shadow Makers in the UK) starring Paul Newman, Dwight Schultz, Bonnie Bedelia and John Cusack and Roland Joffé, the film received poor reviews and flopped at the box office.
While Barbie and Oppenheimer will perform strongly, Mission Impossible Dead Reckoning will also hold strongly despite dropping up to 60% (due to previews) it should still take a strong £4m-£5m despite losing IMAX and PLF screens.
While Elemental will hold well in its third weekend despite the arrival of Barbie as it plays to a younger audience.
All other films will likely drop around 60% as they will lose many screens to the new releases.
Opening in two weeks
- Strays – Universal Pictures
Comedy featuring voices of Will Ferrell, Jamie Foxx, Will Forte, Isla Fisher, Randall Park, Josh Gad, Harvey Guillén, Rob Riggle, Brett Gelman, Jamie Demetriou, and Sofía Vergara and directed by Josh Greenbaum.
Universal Pictures will be hoping that R-rated dog comedy Strays will perform similarly to 2016’s Sausage Party opened £2,690,156 #1 taking £7,580,034.
But late August is often the dumping ground for films and Strays was originally due to open in June, while the lack of talent not being able to promote both Strays and Blue Beetle will likely affect both as the strike will start having an impact on film openings.
- Blue Beetle – Warner Bros
14th DC Extended Universe film starring Xolo Maridueña, Adriana Barraza, Damián Alcázar, Raoul Max Trujillo, Susan Sarandon, and George Lopez and directed by Angel Manuel Soto.
Development started in 2018 and it was originally planned to be released on HBO Max but was switched to theatrical in December 2021.
There were rumours after the disappointing performance of Shazam 2 and The Flash there were rumours Warner Bros might delay the film to next year so the film could be part of James Gunn’s new DC slate, as Blue Beetle along with Aquaman 2 feel like they are being orphaned off and its damage control for Warner Bros now. Of course, the positives for Warner Bros after the disappointing performance of recent DC films Barbie and The Meg 2 are likely to bring some positivity to the studio over the coming weeks.