I wrote this in response to the response by Phil Clapp to the article ‘Why cinema is doomed: the picture house has weathered the storm of piracy, but the real cliff edge is still to come’ in CityAm on October 4th. His response as always ignores the massive issues the industry has ignored for the last 15 years as thier solution has been as it always has been since the 50s when TV was the enemy raise ticket prices and have different screen formats it didn’t work then and it won’t work now. It really amazes me that these senior members of the industry think that these things will change anything especially as they have been trying this for the past 15 years and it hasn’t worked over those years while alternatives to watch film has grown in size so the issue is the personnel.

I have been criticised in the past for looking back to good times of cinema that for me is only the 90s but the people running these cinema companies and trade organisation UK Cinema Association and BFI are going further back to the 50s and 60s with thier ideas of improvement and attracting new audiences which isn’t working. While are many excellent film industry support agencies that are trying to bring change the problem is they are dealing with industry dinosaurs that don’t like change and still believe the same things that worked 50 years ago still work today which is highlighted by the way they do digital marketing treating it as old media.

As I’ve said many times before 2017 will be the year that will probably be the most disappointing year since 2002 and those who are supposedly leading the business should take responsibility of thier failure and bring in fresh blood and fresh ideas if cinema has a chance to be more than where films premiere for a couple of weeks. With the growth Amazon and Netflix have had over the same years and with the tech giant’s Facebook Apple and Google poised to enter the VOD marketplace spending billions to do so cinema needs to offer similar value as one ticket is less than a month subscription to these services. As we move everything online was a report recently 25% of shopping malls will close over the next decade while there tremendous growth in food delivery it then makes sense that people will then prefer to watch films at home on thier 4K HDR 50inch TV with Dolby Atmos which is similar technology to what’s in cinemas. Odeon have just relaunched thier Glasgow cinema with reclining seats to try and tempt people who are currently stretched out on thier home sofas watching VOD but why would they pay £10 to do something they can do for free? Reclining seats like extended food ranges and having 100 different drinks like all the different formats are cosmetic changes that don’t deal with the issues thier customers really care about which of course is customer service and presentation and price. I’ve always wondered why exhibitors are so crazy about installing reclining seats in cinemas but after Netflix announced even higher subscribers realised it’s to give the living room experience in a cinema.

The growth Phil Clapp talks about regularly in the UK market is purely ticket inflation over the last 15 years. While UK box office might have doubled over the last 10 years admissions have been flat for the last 15 years while average ticket prices depending on who you believe the UK Cinema Association/BFI who claim average ticket price was £4.29 (probably correct) but is now only £7.41 anyone who goes to majority of cinemas in the UK today I doubt few will get change out of £10 and many out of £20.

While there might be a couple of cinemas that charge less than £7.41 Peckhamplex, Romford Premiere and Vue Manchester these are few and far between as majority of cinemas in the UK are closer to double the average and why this average is so important is that is how admissions are calculated so real admissions are probably closer to they were 20 years ago. My local Vue cinemas are nothing special but are £13.49 which are about double what they were about 10 years ago.

Earlier this year there was record box office for March/April with many believing admissions would grow for the first time since 2002 but this is highly unlikely this is despite Phil Clapp admitting many times 2017 had a strong slate of films. So, while ticket price according to their own figures is up 68.89% since 2002 box office is up from £742m in 2003 to £1.246bn in 2016 up 67.9% so growth in the market has been 1% in 15 years.

While box office for 2017 might have taken £1bn 14 days earlier than last year this is solely due to ticket inflation with IMAX PLF 3D 4DX Event Cinema Secret Cinema Blockbuster taxes all adding surcharges to regular cinema tickets. While there might be many discounts and offers and subscription cinema deals with Odeon and Cineworld this has also meant there are more price tariffs than easyJet as in 1994 it was simple adults and children. I have ticket stubs for Back to the Future 2 at UCI Whiteley’s in 1989 a few days after opening priced £2.50 now that same cinema is called The Lounge and tickets are £29.75.

In 1984 UK admissions were at their lowest 54m a year later AMC cinemas opened the first multiplex cinema The Point Milton Keynes in its first two years it sold 2 million tickets and several more multiplexes were built over the years that followed with. Cannon opening a second at Salford Quays in December 1986, and between 1987 and 1991 around 500 new screens opened. Odeon Cinemas first rejected multiplexes preferring to continue their cutting up their single-screen cinemas into five or more screens but of course, cinemagoers prefer the purpose-built multiplex.

UK admissions grew dramatically in the late 80s in seven years after only being 54m admissions they topped 100m for the first time since 1980 and continued to grow strongly throughout the 90s they were helped in 1996 and 1997 with National Cinema Day when all cinemas across the UK were £1 was surprised this didn’t become an annual event as it has become elsewhere around the world and in Ireland they have it each August. in 1994 experts were predicting admissions would top 200m by 2000 instead ending the decade on 139m which was the highest since 1972.

In 2001 and 2002 they grew dramatically thanks to the first and second Harry Potter films but then the growth stopped in 2003 but no one can seemingly explain why as the films in 2003 were as big as they were in the years before but growth suddenly stopped and hasn’t grown since. I do believe had ticket prices grown by inflation since 2003 they would be about £6.50 now and admissions would be over 250m now which would generate more box office than they currently do at the claimed average of £7.41. Exhibitors always say they don’t make money from cinema tickets so prove it cut prices and people will buy much more of their highly profitable popcorn and syrup.

The same time of the 1% growth in UK theatrical market we have seen the huge growth in VOD in the UK via Netflix and Amazon and Sky Box Office where you can get a digital download and free DVD for £13.99 three months after a films theatrical release which is the price most people pay to see a film at the cinema. How is it the price of a VHS/DVD to buy is the cheaper now than it was when the first film was released on sell-through VHS in 1989 Rain Man £14.99 but a cinema ticket is over 200% more since 1989.

While there has been a huge investment in cinemas and converting cinemas from film to digital the issues most cinemagoers still have about going to the cinema still haven’t been dealt with customer service and cinema presentation with exhibitors far too busy adding reclining seats or selling 100 drinks than deal with the issues cinema-goers have.

Cinema will be always the place where people go and see Beauty and the Beast, Dunkirk, It and Star Wars The Last Jedi but the top 20 biggest films of 2017 have taken almost 60% of the box office for the year this goes up to 90% for the top 100 which leaves just scraps for the other 700 films that are released in the UK this year. 20 years ago the industry was complaining that 300 films were being released and that was far too many why are distributors now releasing more than double with the vast majority taking very little at the box office far more of these films must be released on VOD which will hopefully give others more playing time.

Films used to get a chance to breathe and find their audience but now if they don’t open well in their opening weekend they are dropped the following Friday for the next batch of new releases. While box office for the biggest films is growing this is cannibalizing all the other films as seen in recent weeks with Goodnight Christopher Robin opening similar to 2004’s Finding Neverland but not holding nearly as strongly. While films like Dunkirk as Bridget Jones’s Baby and Fantastic Beasts might overperform in the UK compared to the US there are many that will underperform.

Much is made of the growth of China box office but foreign distributors only get 25% of the box office films generated in China compared to more than double in the US so while films like Transformers The Last Knight might be taking $228.8m in China Paramount will get back as a rental $57m which is about the same as they will get back from its US box office of $130.1m. So, until China doubles in size it will just artificially inflate films global box office but not profits while China is also where most film piracy is created and as many films open day and date with China they are online within weeks of their theatrical release.