Top 5 Breakdown
- Assassin’s Creed – £5,285,064 – NE
After receiving mixed reviews expectations were low for Assassin’s Creed but thanks to having an 8-day opening weekend could overtake Rogue One from top spot, but on Fri-Sun box office alone would have charted second behind Rogue One as it took £3.37m Sun-Thurs but only £1.91m Fri-Sun.
Until the industry defines an opening weekend box office as Fri-Sun studios will keep adding days to films openings to inflate the all-important opening weekend. The problem with 7 day weekends is it doesn’t often expand a film’s opening it just shares it across the week and when you have a film that has received poor reviews like Warcraft and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2 could make the film dead before its official weekend. The other issue with 7 or more opening day weekend the films will have double sized drops as seen this week with Monster Trucks and Why Him?
As all studio often extend films opening weekends either by opening a couple of days ahead of its official opening or have weekend previews to inflate their opening weekend box office (A Monster Calls and Silence had similar 8-day openings).
It’s hard to remember when the extended opening became the norm but remember films like Jurassic Park in 1993 having one Thursday evening preview screening the night before its opening over the following years these previews became multiple shows and whole days. Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone in 2001 was a game changer having all day Sat/Sun previews the weekend before opening in recent years’ studios have had double weekend previews for many including How to Train Your Dragon 2, Hotel Transylvania 2 and The Peanuts Movie.
Has made comparing opening weekends with films impossible as you can’t just chop off preview box office and that would be its weekend box office as audiences have changed the way they watch these films why so often having a 7-day opening weekend doesn’t actually inflate a films box office
While Hollywood has successfully made movies from comic books and turned films into successful films it’s surprising they have found it so difficult turning a computer game into a film. Over the last 20+ years, there have been many attempts but few successes. Last May Nintendo announced plans to try to copy Marvel’s success to create feature films in-house starring their iconic characters.
Last year Warcraft was a massive failure but due to it being a massive success in China there could still be a sequel. Warner Bros are currently rebooting Tomb Raider for 2018 with Alicia Vikander as Lara Croft replacing Angelina Jolie. While just this week Joe Carnahan announced, he had completed the script for long in development Uncharted which is due to start filming this year and from the studio that brought us Warcraft last year will bring a live-action Pokemon movie 17 years after first.
Recent computer game movie adaptions
| OWE | Previews | 2 WE | drop | 2WE T | ||
| Warcraft | 3 June 2016 | £3.62m | £2.17m | £0.72m | 80% | £5.02m |
| Need For Speed | 12 Mar 2014 | £2.01m | £0.46m | £0.98m | 51% | £3.61m |
| Tron Legacy | 17 Dec 2010 | £1.97m | n/a | £0.48m | 75% | £4.08m |
| Prince of Persia | 21 May 2010 | £1.37m | n/a | £1.63m | +19% | £3.38m |
| Scott Pilgrim | 25 Aug 2010 | £1.60m | £0.53m | £0.70m | 56% | £3.39m |
| LC: Tomb Raider | 6 Jul 2001 | £3.84m | n/a | £2.25m | 41% | £7.93m |
| Tomb Raider 2 | 22 Aug 2006 | £1.52m | n/a | £0.84m | 45% | £3.54m |
- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story £3,253,346 – £59,682,374
Down 45.4% in its fourth weekend losing top spot a week earlier than Star Wars: The Force Awakens last year due to Assassin’s Creed having an 8-day opening weekend; last year The Force Awakens took £5.94m in week 4 and £108.37m total having taken 88% of its final box office if Rogue One was to do similar final box office would be around £65m.
| 3rd/4th w/e comps | |||||||||||||||||||
| Av P | 3rd w/e | 4th we | 4weA | 4 we T | 4 A | Final BO | Final A | ||||||||||||
| Rogue One | 16 Dec 2016 | £7.74 | £5.96 | £3.26 | 421k | £59.7 | 7.71m | £67m* | 8.66m* | ||||||||||
| The Force Awakens | 17 Dec 2015 | £7.21 | £10.91 | £5.94 | 824k | £108.3 | 15.02m | £123m | 17.06m | ||||||||||
| Revenge of the Sith | 22 May 2005 | £4.71 | £3.31 | £1.59 | 338k | £35.41 | 7.52m | £39.18 | 8.32m | ||||||||||
| Attack of the Clones | 19 May 2002 | £4.29 | £2.44 | £2.05 | 478k | £31.87 | 7.43m | £37.32 | 8.70m | ||||||||||
| The Phantom Menace | 15 July 1999 | £4.12 | £3.12 | £3.15 | 746k | £34.44 | 8.36m | £50.73 | 13.69m | ||||||||||
| Jurassic World | 11 Jun 2015 | £7.21 | £5.77 | £2.61 | 362k | £53.76 | 7.46m | £64.5m | 8.95m | ||||||||||
| Avengers Age of Ultron | 23 Apr 2015 | £7.21 | £3.50 | £1.66 | 230k | £43.25 | 6.00m | £48.3m | 6.70m | ||||||||||
| Avengers Assemble | 25 Apr 2012 | £6.37 | £4.16 | £2.81 | 441k | £44.98 | 7.06m | £51.9m | 8.15m | ||||||||||
| Avatar | 17 Dec 2009 | £5.44 | £5.94 | £4.77 | 877k | £40.99 | 7.54m | £93.44 | 15.74m | ||||||||||
| Titanic | 23 Jan 1998 | £4.07 | £4.27 | £3.84 | 944k | £26.77 | 6.58m | £80.3m | 18.05m | ||||||||||
But comparing Rogue One and The Force Awakens fourth weekend box office with the prequels and the likes of Titanic and Avatar you can see while their box office might be impressive admission figures aren’t nearly as impressive. Rogue One fourth weekend is 19.9% more than Jurassic World but with the price difference of 7.3% the difference between the two isn’t far and Rogue One will likely end with similar box office but admissions tell a different story why it’s impossible to compare box office with films released even a year apart.
Many will say Rogue One is the real #1 film as it’s box office taken Fri-Sun was much higher but until the industry defines weekend BO as just Fri-Sun distributors will keep extending it 7-day opening have become much more in recent years with 10 and 14-day openings for many family films.
Rogue One has moved up to #13 highest grossing film in the UK overtaking the like likes of Star Wars: The Phantom Menace and The Dark Knight Rises currently splitting up The Lord of the Rings trilogy which it will move ahead of by next weekend. But what is very noticeable is the films that have entered the top 20 chart in the last three years their admissions are about half of the older films showing how ticket prices are affecting films box office while these films might be making more at the box office less are going to the cinema.
Over the weeks since Rogue One opened almost as much has been written about what wasn’t included in the film as what was as so many iconic shots that feature within the trailers has been since revealed were never going to be in the film; including the tunnel scene with Jyn and the scene where she is on the platform walking towards a Tie-Fighter these were kept in more marketing purposes. More was also revealed about the controversial CGI scenes featuring Grand Moff Tarkin played by Peter Cushing who died in 1994 and the end shot of Princess Leia.
After the said news of Carrie Fisher’s death at Christmas, there are concerns that she might be similarly digitally added to Star Wars IX but she had finished filming the scenes for Star Wars VIII out this Christmas.
- A Monster Calls – £1,920,744 – NE
Like Assassin’s Creed and Silence A Monster Calls box office was inflated with 5 days of previews opening on January 1st making all three openings look far better than really are and will see big drop offs in their second weekends.
Removing the £1.1m taken from Sunday- Thursday its Fri-Sun box office would have been only £818,893 which would have seen it chart in sixth.
After premiering in September at the Toronto Film Festival received positive reviews also screening at many other festivals including London Film Festival in October. eOne had a talker screening program in early December to build awareness generating positive buzz.
Many compared A Monster Calls to films like Iron Giant and The BFG and a darker sadder Inside Out about emotion and the grief and that comes in losing a parent. Starting off as a children’s fantasy story and then becomes something very different. In the US, it opened a month after Manchester By the Sea about a man grieving his brother, while aimed at the adult audience the similar plot could be one of the reasons why A Monster Calls found it hard to find an audience in the US. In the UK Manchester By the Sea opens this weekend a week after A Monster Calls.
The opening was far from J. A. Bayona his last film since 2012’s The impossible opened January 1st, 2013 with £4.03m (including £1.56m from previews) taking £12.75m;
A. Bayona next film is Jurassic World 2 which he starts filming later this year for June 2018 release.
- Silence – £1,542,926 – NE
Like Assassin’s Creed and A Monsters Calls, Silence box office was inflated with 5 days of previews opening on January 1st making all three openings look far better than really are and will see big drop offs in their second weekends.
Removing the £860,457 taken from Sunday- Thursday its Fri-Sun box office would have been only £682,469 which would have seen it chart in eighth.
Hard to compare Silence with Martin Scorsese’s films since Kundun in 1997 as all have been much more commercial The Wolf of Wall Street, Hugo, Shutter Island, The Departed, The Aviator and Gangs of New York.
The opening was Martin Scorsese fifth biggest opening in the UK but with just Fri-Sun box office dropped to seventh.
The Wolf of Wall Street – 17th January 2014 – £4.51m – taking £22.26m
Gangs of New York – 9th January 2003 £2.62m taking £10.1m
The Departed – 6th October 2006 – £2.29m – taking £12.57m
Shutter Island – 12th March 2010 £2.25m taking £10.59m.
The Aviator – 6th January 2005 – £1.54m (after two weeks of limited) taking £7.88m
Hugo – 2nd December 2011 – £1.22m taking £5.24m.
As with Live By Night and Silence didn’t receive any BAFTA nominations even though reviews weren’t as positive just being a Martin Scorsese direct film would have expected to receive a few nominations.
But of the five nominees four premiered at Toronto/Venice in September and I, Daniel Blake premiered at Cannes Film Festival in May which allowed all of them slowly build up buzz. Silence as Live By Night was very late to the campaign trail even though BAFTA members knew of these films they saw them moths after the other films b which time they had probably already made up their minds.
Martin Scorsese announced in August 2016 the film would be completed in October the prestige of having a Martin Scorsese film opening at Christmas was too much for Paramount to refuse even though they had a far stronger Oscar candidate in Fences set a Christmas Day opening but the trailer wasn’t released until November 22nd with Allied only a month before its US opening.
Christmas was already packed with Jackie, Manchester By the Sea, Fences, 20th Century Women, Lion, Patriot’s Day, Live By Night, Hidden Figures, A Monster Calls and La La Land was always expected they would cannibalize with Silence the most likely given the heavy subject matter and length. Paramount have so few films seemed crazy to release five films in five weeks Arrival, Allied, Office Christmas Party, Fences, and Silence especially after release only 10 films over the previous 11 months. Maybe were contractually bound to release the film at a certain date as only had US rights.
Martin Scorsese had planned to make Silence soon after Kundun was made deciding to make Bringing Out the Dead, Gangs of New York, The Aviator, The Departed and Shutter Island first. In 2011 announced he would make Silence only pushing it back further to make Hugo and The Wolf of Wall Street.
Religious films are rarely successful in the UK cinemagoers attracted to Silence probably more as it was Martin Scorsese film over the subject matter or the cast Andrew Garfield, Adam Driver and Liam Neeson; with three award contenders opening this weekend Silence is likely to drop down the chart quickly
- Passengers – £1,369,272 – £10,468,063
Despite the mixed reviews holding far stronger than expected down only 27.8% in its third weekend; while not the massive box office hit Sony must have expected with the cast of Jennifer Lawrence and Chris Pratt. Hard to compare Passenger box office performance with either of their previous films as it’s so different but does possibly question if either of them is deserving of their places on Forbes Highest Paid Actors list but the same could be said for many other actors on that list.
After Collateral Beauty, flopped Passengers hasn’t had any competition but with La La Land opening this week Passengers will drop down the charts over the coming weeks.
Showing how disappointing Sony Pictures UK 2016 was Passengers has already overtaken The Angry Birds Movie and Ghostbusters to become their biggest film of 2016.
In recent years Sony Pictures UK success, has been tied to James Bond years in 2012 had their best year and was the number 1 studio but then their box office share dropped by half the year after and dropped lower in 2014 but then doubled box studio share in 2015 with Spectre taking over 62% of the year’s box office but then last year dropped their share by almost half.
But in 2017 Sony Pictures UK have their strongest slate for years T2: Trainspotting, Spider-Man: Homecoming, The Dark Tower, Baby Driver, Flatliners, Blade Runner 2049 and Jumanji. Adults might fear both Smurfs: The Lost Village and The Emoji Movie adult fear them both but children will probably enjoy them as did last year with The Angry Birds Movie. Their slate is nostalgia-heavy and audiences can be very fickle with the re-imaginings and sequels they like and don’t like.
Other box office news
This weekend’s top 10 box office took £17,194,216 down 0.7% from last weekend £17,313,519;
weekend admissions 2,088,116 down 6.8% from last week 2,240,458
The weekend was up 14.2% from same weekend last year (£15,055,478) The Hateful Eight £2,767,886 and A War £17,916 opened.
Same weekend opening in 2015: Taken 3 opened with £6.7m, Into the Woods £2.48m, Foxcatcher £876,379 opened.
Same weekend in 2014 American Sniper opened with £2,528,401, Whiplash £572,739, Wild £524,721 and The Merry Widow Opera £460,519.
Next weekend in 2016: The Revenant £5,192,151, Creed £2,22,675, Room £624,951,
opened.
A recent survey said average ticket price was £8.24 (the same cost as 13 pints of cider) up from Cinema Exhibitors Association average ticket price of £7.21 for 2015 a 7.3% increase from 2014. If the same percentage was used 2016 average ticket price would be £7.74.
US Box Office
December January 6th – 8th 2017
| Hidden Figures | Fox | 25 Dec 2016 | 3 | $22.80m | +2,556% | $24.75m |
| Rogue One | Disney | 16 Dec 2016 | 4 | $22.63m | -55.5% | $477.34m |
| Sing | Universal | 21 Dec 2016 | 3 | $20.72m | -51.7% | $214.51m |
| Underworld: Blood Wars | SGems | 6 Jan 2017 | 1 | $13.68m | NE | $13.68m |
| La La Land | Lionsgate | 9 Dec 2016 | 5 | $10.13m | +6.1% | $51.78m |
| Passengers | Sony | 21 Dec 2016 | 3 | $8.81m | -45.4% | $80.90m |
| Why Him? | Fox | 25 Dec 2016 | 3 | $6.90m | -35.3% | $48.96m |
| Moana | Disney | 23 Nov 2016 | 7 | $6.38m | -41.9% | $225.36m |
| Fences | Paramount | 16 Dec 2016 | 4 | $4.81m | -52.1% | $40.77m |
| Assassin’s Creed | Fox | 21 Dec 2016 | 3 | $4.17m | -51.8% | $49.85m |
Going into the weekend most box office experts were predicting Rogue One would hold top spot but by Sunday estimates Rogue One was ahead by only $172k.
But always expected Disney overestimated their figures (going Rogue to quote the film) while 20th Century Fox underestimated Hidden Figures and by Monday afternoon the films had switched places with $170k splitting the two, but as Rogue One is playing on over 1600 more screens than Hidden Figures and is showing in 3D and IMAX the real gap is much bigger. Hidden Figures also received an A+ CinemaScore; the most obvious comparison to Hidden Figures is 2011’s The Help also starring Octavia Spencer opened with $26.04m in August 2011 holding strongly in its following weeks taking $169.7m.
Are so many connections of films released with other films as of course The Help was becoming Emma Stone’s biggest film in the US and is still away from The Amazing Spider-Man and The Croods which she voiced. Having made her acting film debut in 2007 Superbad, small roles in The House Bunny and Ghosts of Girlfriends Past followed but it was roles in Zombieland, Easy A and her first with Ryan Gosling Crazy, Stupid, Love that Hollywood saw her as more than just a teen actress.
Many experts were predicting Rogue One would hold better than The Force Awakens but Rogue One was always likely to be even more front-loaded than The Force Awakens as it was playing to fan-base while The Force Awakens being the first part of a new film series was much more accessible to non-fans and new fans.
Rogue One has just moved ahead of both Star Wars: A New Hope and Star Wars: Episode I: The Phantom Menace to become the eighth biggest film in the US. But of course, while overtaking its box office Rogue One box office cannot be compared to the film opening 18 and 40 years ago, as on Box Office Mojos inflation adjusted chart Rogue One is #72.
After 4 weeks on release Star Wars: The Force Awakens had taken $812.73m 86.7% of its final box office of $936.66m. After 4 weeks Rogue One has taken $477.34m and likely to add $60m+ which will see it ending with about $534m which would see it squeeze past 2008’s The Dark Knight $534.85m but that was release 9 years ago and Rogue One also had 3D and IMAX surcharges.
Fences – dropping down the chart Viola Davis won Best Supporting Actress at the Golden Globes. In the awards pre-show host Jenna Bush Hager congratulated Pharrell Williams on his Hidden Fences film and later in the ceremony as a presenter Michael Keaton did the same reading out nominations which called outrage on social media and Stephen Colbert parodied the gaffe the next day with a trailer for Hidden Fences
Fences also made the news this week as the first Academy screener to find its way online.
Expansion
Focus Features – A Monster Calls – up 9,773% adding 1,519 screens – $2.08m – $2.17m
After disappointing on limited release A Monster Calls was always likely to suffer against the other film expansions was always unlikely that it would receive award nominations so was the very strange decision by Focus Features to delay its release from October where it could have built on the buzz generated from Toronto to crowded December. But this is the similar situation with many films this year that have been given a late December slot for award consideration like Silence, Live By Night and The Founder all unlikely to receive nominations and then stuck competing against the films that have been.
Will be interesting to see how the three expansion titles perfect this week as none are likely to receive many nominations and if they do they aren’t likely to win. So instead of dating a film in the hope that Academy or BAFTA members like their film to be nomination these films should be dated to give them the best chance for success for cinemagoers and to open several adult targeting films close together only causes the same cannibalization that occurs with mainstream popcorn movies the rest of the year.
On limited release
Paramount – Silence –up 476.2% – $482,034 from 51 screens adding 47 screens $864,423.
Expands on Friday after failing to get Golden Globe nominations will probably suffer a similar fate as A Monster Calls last weekend with very limited audience appeal.
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A24 – 20th Century Women – up 28.4% – $130,467 adding 6 screens – $383,412
Opened January 13th
Opening UK
- La La Land – Lionsgate
Romantic musical drama starring Ryan Gosling, Emma Stone (their third film starring together after Crazy, Stupid, Love and Gangster Squad), John Legend and Rosemarie DeWitt and directed by Damien Chazelle; ever since received a world premiere at Venice Film Festival on August 31st critics have gone gaga over it. Was screened at many film festivals after including the London Film Festival in October.
Everything about La La land screams Oscar bait from setting the film in Los Angeles, using CinemaScope, Mia hopefully actress working in a café on Warner Bros to going to an old-style movie theater to watch Rebel Without A Cause to go back later on and seeing that old theater closed.
After enjoying the film there was a Q&A with the director and Emma Stone a comment made by Damien Chazelle really made me go from liking it to seeing it for what it is. Emma Stone filmed one of the songs in the film Audition live Damien Chazelle said how brave Emma was doing it Emma quickly said it wasn’t and we will talk about this later which warmed the audience even more to Emma but made me realise how fake the film is if he can call a live singing performance as ‘brave’.
On Tuesday it was no surprise the 6,500 BAFTA members gave La La Land 11 nominations and after winning won 6 Golden Globes on Sunday expected to win many of these.
In the US had a slow platform release started on December 2nd going fully wide on January 6th but opens wide on January 13th in the UK.
La La Land was inspired by classics including The Umbrellas of Cherbourg, Singin’ in the Rain, The Young Girls of Rochefort and An American in Paris. But it is unlike most recent musicals nearest is the street musicals directed by John Carney Once, Begin Again, and Sing Street but none had as wide a release, the media coverage, and hype La La Land has received which is more like Chicago or Les Miserables (was a phenomenon opening with £8.12m in January 2013 going on to take £33.45m) but both, of course, were well-known stage musicals before they became films.
Chicago opened on one screen December 26th, 2002 with £113,386 on limited release for three weeks before expanding to 276 screens taking £1,983,505 expanding further to 324 screens the following weekend dropping only 3% £1,918,232 going on to take £16.11m. Two years earlier Moulin Rouge opened in September 2011 with £2.4m dropping only 23% in its second weekend taking £17.93m.
Are much more similar musicals including Everyone Says I Love You, De-Lovely and Beyond the Sea but all had far less media coverage and hype.
In 2005 Crash surprised everyone winning Best Picture Oscar instead of Brokeback Mountain in the years since many felt its win was undeserving Academy voted were caught up as often are with the hype but with Crash was the multi-racial story set in Los Angeles. In the same way, many looks back at Crash undeserving winning the Best Film Oscar do believe many will see La La Land as similar. The film is lovely as are the performances by Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling but as with Crash, there are many more films that were released in 2016 more deserving of award success.
There has been some backlash to La La Land already several articles including one for Sydney Morning Herald on 6th January which I agree completely with described it as ‘indulgent cinephile-bait, rewards in-the-know critics, but really it’s the Pokemon Go of movie reference’. For me La La Land is similar to Star Wars: The Force Awakens the nostalgic memberries critics and academy members ate in 2015 overdosed on again.
La La Land is now favourite to win Best Picture at the Oscars which would make it the fourth film about Hollywood to win Best Picture in the last 6 years The Artist, Argo and Birdman before while last year’s Spotlight was about print media, 2013’s 12 Years A Slave was the only non-media related film since The King’s Speech won in 2010. Much talk about diversity how about diversity away from films about Hollywood? Next year how about a silent black and white time traveling superhero musical.
- Live By Night – Warner Bros
Crime drama starring Ben Affleck, Elle Fanning, Brendan Gleeson, Chris Messina, Sienna Miller, Zoe Saldana and Chris Cooper and directed by Ben Affleck. Based on a novel by Dennis Lehane his fifth turned into a film 2003’s Mystic River 2007’s Gone Baby Gone 2010’s Shutter Island 2014’s The Drop and the second directed by Ben Affleck.
Mystic River – opened 17th October 2003 £295,135 taking £1.63m
Gone Baby Gone – opened 6th June 2008 (delayed in the UK due to similarities to the Madeleine McCann was due to open in November 2007 but delayed 7 months) opened £351,127 taking £1.69m.
Shutter Island opened 12th March 2010 £2.25m taking £10.59m.
The Drop opened 14th November 2014 £616,103 taking £1.62m.
Live By Night is Ben Affleck’s fourth film as a director and his follow-up to Argo’s Oscar success in 2012. Was originally developed at Warner Bros for Leonardo DiCaprio production company but after Oscar win, Ben Affleck took over the project but he still produced the film via Appian Way Productions.
The Town opened 24 September 2010 with £1.01m taking £4.77m and Argo opened 7 November 2012 with £1.28m taking £4.92m; Ben Affleck most recently starred in The Accountant opened with £1.61m taking £5.26m.
Originally Live By Night was set for Christmas 2015 release but delayed because of Batman Vs Superman released delayed. In March Warner Bros announced October 20th, 2017 release but after seeing a rough cut in June decided to bring it forward to be released for award consideration in 2016.Had an underwhelming platform opening in the US on Christmas Day opening wide in the US the same day as it opens wide in the UK.
As with Martin Scorsese’s Silence maybe had Warner Bros kept next year’s release they could have given the film more time as reviews similar to Silence weren’t as positive as expected with some saying the film felt rushed.
Live By Night and Silence didn’t receive any BAFTA nominations both of which any would have expected to receive nominations given their pedigree. But both films were very late to the campaign trail with most other nominees launching their campaigns at Toronto or Venice in September so while it was understandable Warner Bros after they liked a rough cut in June to bring forward its release from October 2017 to December 2016 in doing so did they harm its box office potential.
Ben Affleck is in the UK this week promoting the film but will be overshadowed by the hype surrounding La La Land but Ben Affleck films away from Batman Vs Superman and Gone Girl have had £1m+ openings.
Do often have to question the dating decisions with many films remember watching on from the Projection booth at 20th Century Fox hearing studio executives discussing dating frothier upcoming slate often amazed at why they chose to date films on certain dates. Mention this after both A Monster Calls and Live By Night had the same original release date October 21st, 2016/ October 20th, 2017 (a year apart) but both were then moved to Christmas Day openings in the hope of award success after their previous films had Oscar success. (for J.A. Bayona’s 2012 film The Impossible Naomi Watts was nominated for several awards while Ben Affleck’s last directed film 2012’s Argo won three Oscars including Best Film).
Had Live By Night opened October 20th, 2017 would ave given them more time to work on the film allowed it to build buzz after its premiere at Toronto and then hopefully repeat the success of Argo and last October’s The Accountant.
Opening Live By Night in January it has to compete with many award contenders in a crowded marketplace for adult dramas. But Warner Bros decided to bring it forward 10 months after seeing a rough cut in June to platform it in the already congested Christmas week to qualify it for award season.
Rather than going for Academy members, Live By Night and A Monster Calls, studios first aim for these films is to get audiences into cinemas. The best way to do this is to give them the best release dates for them any awards is a bonus as award season is such a lottery as every September websites make lists of 20/30 contenders but only 5 will make the cut is why a film release date should be always right for the audience first.
Opening Live By Night and A Monster Calls in January against the Oscar bait films would put them at a disadvantage as by the time both films release dates were moving the buzz for the many of other award contenders were already building and without award nominations they won’t get the same media coverage.
Live By Night as A Monster Calls had a disappointing opening on platform; A Monster Calls had a disappointing expansion last weekend and Live By Night will likely suffer similar fate this weekend competing against the two other new releases La La Land and Manchester By the Sea which had Golden Globes success on Sunday and received BAFTA nominations this week.
Strange coincidence for Warner Bros with Live By Night, four years ago this weekend gangster movie Gangster Squad opened which was delayed from September 2012 after the Aurora cinema shooting at a midnight screening of The Dark Knight Rises as was a scene in the trailer with a shootout in a theatre. The film opened with $17m taking $40m was the second film Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone appeared together are now getting award glory and box office success with La La Land.
Gangster Squad opened January 11th 2013 with £2.09m taking £4.75m
Gangs of New York – 9th January 2003 £2.62m taking £10.1m
The Departed – 6th October 2006 – £2.29m – taking £12.57m
The trailers had a Road to Perdition feel to them which opened on limited release in September 2002 with £256,035 before opening wide with £1,318,382 taking £6.47m; Road to Perdition was a wonderful film starring Tom Hanks and an ensemble cast including Paul Newman’s final screen role. Sam Mendes and Daniel Craig worked together on Skyfall and Spectre but to me it’s probably their best film and the score by Thomas Newman is one of my favorites.
- Underworld: Blood Wars – Sony Pictures
Originally planned as a reboot Underworld: Next Generation but became the fifth part of the Underworld film series and sequel to 2012’s Underworld: Awakening starring Kate Beckinsale and directed by Anna Foerster; was released in several countries in November/December 2016 had a disappointing opening in the US last weekend unlikely to do much better in the UK.
| Underworld | 19th Sept 2003 | £1.48m | £4.37m |
| Underworld: Evolutions | 20th Jan 2006 | £1.14m | £2.87m |
| Underworld: Rise of Lycans | 23rd Jan 2009 | £990,285 | £2.39m |
| Underworld: Awakenings | 20th Jan 2012 | £1.11m | £2.94m |
- Manchester By The Sea – Studiocanal
Drama starring Casey Affleck, Michelle Williams, Kyle Chandler, Gretchen Mol and Lucas Hedges and directed by Kenneth Lonergan. Originally due to to star Mat Damon but dropped out to star in The Martian with Casey Affleck replacing him staying on the film as a producer.
The film received its world premiere at Sundance Film Festival in January 2016 and screened at many film festivals including Toronto and London receiving critical acclaim nominated for 5 Golden Globes including a Best Actor Nomination for Casey Affleck which he won. Allegations of sexual harassment and verbal abuse could harm award success for him; opened on a limited release in November having a slow expansion taking $34.8m to date.
Casey Affleck has been on the edge of glory for over 20 years had many films including To Die For in 1995 as potential breakthrough roles and starred in several films alongside his Uncle Ben including Chasing Amy, Good Will Hunting, 200 Cigarettes and Gone Baby Gone. Most recently starred in 2014’s Interstellar and The Finest Hours.
- The Bye Bye Man – Entertainment Films
Supernatural horror based on based on Robert Schneck’s novel The President’s Vampire; opening the same weekend as Underworld: Blood Wars seems a strange decision but with Split opening week after and Residential Evil in three weeks was likely no alternative.
Original supernatural horrors have disappointed recently at the box office Lights Out opening with £1.12m, Blair Witch opening £0.95m and Ouija: Origin of Evil opening £0.77m.
Opening against the biggest well-known franchise Underworld: Blood Wars likely to d similar to last years The Forest £0.44m and The Boy £0.72m. With so many other higher profile films opening against it will likely get lost in the crowd.
Opening in the US
- Monster Trucks – Paramount Pictures
Has been much negativity surrounding the film after the $100m+ budget after being delayed many times from its original May 2015 release date. In September Paramount announcing a $115m write-down for the film. It was also revealed the idea came from the 4-year-old child of a former studio executive which isn’t a completely bad as that is the target audience for the film and if it was a much lower budget might seem like it was a good idea.
But despite its baggage, reviews weren’t nearer as bad as expected, they were bad but not Michael Bay bad, and young children enjoyed it so while the studio executive dad might have left Paramount maybe sign up his child but next time keep the budget low. There could be a curiosity value to Monster Trucks with people going to see how bad it really is but with Sing holding well unlikely it will attract many of those.
- The Bye Bye Man – STX
Original supernatural horrors have had mixed success recently from the highs of last year’s Lights Out opening with $21.68m to the disappointments of Blair Witch opening $9.57m, Ouija: Origin of Evil opening $14.01m.
The Bye Bye Man is likely to be somewhere in the middle helped with Underworld: Blood Wars disappointing debut meaning it will drop heavily could see The Bye Bye Man to open like last years The Forest $12.74m and The Boy $10.77m. While both opened less than Underworld: Blood Wars they both had low budgets like The Bye Bye Man.
Expansion
- Live By Night – Warner Bros
After having a disappointing platform opening on Christmas Day as all other limited openers had apart from Hidden Figures and surprisingly mixed reviews especially after Warner Bros brought forward the film over a year after seeing an early cut.
Dennis Lehane’s previous film adaptions
Mystic River – opened 10th October 2003 on limited $828,422 going wide $10.44m taking $90.1m
Gone Baby Gone – opened 19th October 2007 $5.5m taking $20.3m
Shutter Island opened 19th February $41.1m taking £128.1m.
The Drop opened 12 September 2014 $4.1m £616,103 taking $10.7m
Ben Affleck’s previous directed films (apart from Gone Baby Gone)
The Town opened 17th September 2010 with $23.8m taking $92.1m
Argo opened 12th October 2012 $19.4m taking $136.1m
Despite mixed reviews Ben Affleck’s last film, The Accountant opened 14th October 2016 with $24.7m taking $86.1m; would expect Live By Night to open with $20m+ but with Hidden Figures opening strongly depends on how that holds La La Land also wide and after its Golden Globes success how it builds from its success and other expanders Patriot’s Day and Silence expand its getting very congested with award contenders.
- Patriot’s Day – Lionsgate
The story 2013 Boston Marathon bombing and citywide manhunt; Mark Wahlberg described the film as the most important film of his career. It is the third film based on recent events and second starring Mark Wahlberg. Sully opened strongly in September with $35.1m taking $125.1m while had a slightly disappointing opening of $20.2m taking $61.4m especially as its budget was almost twice as big as Sully.
Over recent years Mark Wahlberg has starred in several January openings Contraband in 2012 opening with $24.3m, Broken City in 2013 $8.2m while Lone Survivor expanded in January 2014 with $37.8m as did The Gambler in 2015 with $6.3m. Away from Transformers Mark Wahlberg has had good success playing real life heroes and with the fear of many of Trump becoming president next weekend the combination of tragedy and hope could be just what cinema audiences need.
The question is will audiences want to relive those events so soon after the tragic events? January has seen strong performances for films since as American Sniper and The Revenant in recent years but after deadly mass shootings in Orlando and last week at Fort Lauderdale airport will audiences want to see these events on the big screen as they are seeing on their small screens at home.
As with the other two films expanding this weekend Patriot’s Day has had a soft launch on limited release but the best of the three.
- Silence – Paramount Pictures
As with Ben Affleck’s Live By Night Martin Scorsese’s Silence was seen as a potential award contender several months ago both films studios seemed to of rushed released this year rather than give the directors more time and release them next year. But as with Live By Night being the follow-up to Ben Affleck’s Oscar winner Argo having a Martin Scorsese film for Christmas was something Paramount couldn’t possibly turn down the opportunity. But while his films might get nominated for Oscars he has only won once for The Departed 10 years ago; with Paramount also having Denzel Washington’s Fences which was receiving strong buzz and seen as a strong award contender it was strong that they would want to add Silence against it.
Scorsese announced in August the film would be completed in October with a December release date announced but the trailer wasn’t released until November 22nd only a month before its US opening.
Early reviews were mixed many describing it as gorgeous to look at but long and dull too.
Was original seen as Martin Scorsese third part of his religious film trilogy his first the controversial 1988 film The Last Temptation of Christ opened on limited release $401,221 taking $7.9m, Kundun opened with $72,095 in 2 10 screens in 1997 taking $3.1m. The marketplace is currently very congested with award contenders and Silence is likely to repeat the underwhelming expansion of A Monster Calls last weeks which added 1,519 screens but only managing to climb up to 13th in the chart. Would have been far better to concentrate on Fences especially after its Golden Globe win but even Fences looks like its suffering from over expansion.