UK/US Box Office September 21st-23rd Week 38 and UK BO Predictions

 

Top 5 Breakdown

  1. The House with A Clock in Its Walls – £3,370,591  – NE

Took £1.1m from previews last weekend without previews took £2,270,591

390th biggest opening in the UK between What Women Want and The Mummy very close to Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children #376 taking £100k more but didn’t have previews; was 558th inflation inflated the biggest opening

While The House with A Clock in Its Walls might feel very similar to Harry Potter but is based on the first of Lewis Barnavelt twelve novels first published in 1973. The film tries to be Harry Potter but comes off more like the similarly themed Percy Jackson films.

Percy Jackson & The Olympians: The Lightning Thief opened 12th February 2010 £1,502,663 taking £7,347,672

Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters opened 6th August 2013 £2,137,835 (£860,773 from previews) taking £6,725,848

The film has also been compared to Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children opened September 2016 with £3,473,781 taking £12,160,991

While megamovies opening is getting bigger mid-range films like The House with A Clock in Its Walls are having similarly sized opening as similar films opened 10 years ago; The Spiderwick Chronicles opened with £2,555,791 (no previews) in March 2018 (£3,868,091 today) taking £10,530,519 (£15,937,535 today).

10 years ago, The Spiderwick Chronicles had the 22nd biggest opening of the year which would be the 20th biggest opening this year. With 50% ticket inflation since and with annual box office growing each year would have thought these films would open far bigger than they do, but audiences are much more selective with the films they pay to see and those they wait to see  

While box office might continue to grow admissions have been flat over the last 10 years despite 50% ticket inflation

Some people took issues with the 12A certificate as the books like the Harry Potter books targeted the tween audience. While it was surprising Eli Roth directed the film as he is better known for directing low budget horror films and some suggested a director like Tim Burton would have been a far better choice.

It is the first film opening for the upcoming half-term holidays in a months’ time and the first film normally had an advantage, in two weeks’ time Johnny English Strikes Back the following weekend Smallfoot and finally, Goosebumps 2 opens the weekend before half-term.

Over the last decade eOne has often been the #1 independent distributor but the last couple of years since The BFG in 2016 they have been missing the big budget films they get from Amblin earlier this year they released Steven Spielberg’s The Post taking over £9m but if The House with A Clock in Its Walls holds well over the coming month it should be their biggest film in the UK since The BFG.

  1. A Simple Favour – £1,621,900 – NE 

837th biggest opening in the UK between The Accountant (also starring Anna Kendrick) and xXx: The Return of Xander Cage (similar opening to last weeks Crazy Rich Asians) and the 1017th biggest inflation inflated opening between Silence and Tomorrowland – A World Beyond

20th Century Fox acquired film rights to Darcey Bell novel in 2016 but after they thought it was too similar to Gone Girl and The Girl on the Train Lionsgate acquired rights from the studio in June 2017. The film like a mishmash of those films and many others but what holds it together are Anna Kendrick and Blake Lively and Paul Feig.

All of Paul Feig’s previous films have had strong female casts Bridesmaids, The Heat, Spy and Ghostbusters. (last week announced his next film Last Christmas starring Emilia Clarke screenplay co-written by Emma Thompson)

Bridesmaids opened in June 2011 with £3,445,395 (£1,030,000 previews) taking £22,318,130

The Heat opened in August 2013 with £2,500,522 (£910,146 previews) taking £6,825,860

Spy opened June 2015 with £2,557,824 (£199,055 previews) taking £9,654,086

Ghostbusters opened July 2016 with £4,388,944 (£1,702,528 previews) taking £10,554,557

Anna Kendrick and Blake Lively are best known for starring in Twilight and Pitch Perfect films (Anna Kendrick) and TV series Gossip Girl (Blake Lively) but its always hard for an actor to break away from a role they have done for many years but with A Simple Favour both might have done it.

Over the last three years, Blake Lively has starred in The Age of Adaline, Café Society, The Shallows, All I See is You and will be next seen in action thriller The Rhythm Section produced by Eon Films

Anna Kendrick has been on the edge of glory since being nominated for Best Supporting Actress in 2010 for Up in the Air starring in many independent films over the years between making Pitch Perfect trilogy away from that best known for voicing Poppy in animated film Trolls (Trolls World Tour opens in 2020). Her next film was to be Noelle, but Disney has instead decided to release it straight to their DisneyPlay streaming service that launches at the end of next year.

Blake Lively

2015’s The Age of Adaline opened with £570,386

It’s harder to compare with Anna Kendrick’s recent films apart from 2016’s Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates as Pitch Perfect 3 was a sequel, The Accountant co-starred with Ben Affleck, Trolls was animated and Into the Woods was part of an ensemble cast. The first Pitch Perfect film was a big hit on DVD but wasn’t a big hit in the UK.

Blake Lively and Anna Kendrick have over 50m followers between them generating strong social media coverage; On May 1st Blake Lively deleted her Instagram account was followed by 20.4 million but afterwards only followed 24 people all called Emily Nelson. Her profile had one sentence What happened to Emily? (Emily Nelson is the character she plays in A Simple Favour). Blake Lively returned to Instagram on May 5th days after the teaser trailer was released.

Blake Lively called out the double standards that actresses get with the clothes they wear after someone commented that she has been wearing suits regularly. Last year she called out a reporter on the red carpet at the Variety’s Power of Women event who asked her what she was wearing saying “Really? At this event, you’re asking me about my outfit?” she said. “Seriously…Would you ask a man that?”

The Girl on the Train opened with £6,957,945 in October 2016 taking £23,372,415

Gone Girl opened with £4,109,628 in October 2014 taking £22,125,201

  1. Crazy Rich Asians – £1,142,208 –  £3,575,569

Down 28.61% in its second weekend

Had 666th biggest second weekend between Now You See Me and Baywatch and 880th biggest second-weekend inflation inflated between The Heat and The Hills Have Eyes

After opening similar My Big Fat Greek Wedding and Bride and Prejudice despite being released 10 and 14 years ago still took moe than Crazy Rich Asians in their second weekend showing how these films are being squeezed at the box office despite a lack of competition.

Bend It Like Beckham had the 286th biggest second weekend inflated weekend

My Big Fat Greek Wedding had the 338th biggest second weekend inflated weekend

Bride and Prejudice had the 714th biggest second weekend inflated weekend `

After opening similar to My Big Fat Greek Wedding 16 years ago the film increased its box office in its second weekend £1,605,271 taking £13,441,558 (£24,658,522)

2002’s Bend It Like Beckham took £1,721,146 taking £10,914,247 (£20,747,614) but did take more than 2004’s Bride and Prejudice second weekend £863,609 taking £4,993,561 (£8,752,634)

  1. King of Thieves – £1,121,883  – £3,737,376

Down 26.9% in its second weekend, the lovable old rogues have won the hearts of cinemagoers as Buster did 30 years ago.

Had the 774th biggest second weekend in the UK between Rush Hur and Bad Neighbours 2 and 879th  inflation inflated opening between Step Up and Flight.

Will shortly overtake 2008’s The Bank Job £3,801,036 and will overtake other British gangster films including 2009’s Harry Brown £4,557,776 and 2004’s Layer Cake £4,287,343 by the weekend.

Critics compare the film with last years Going in Style comedy that also starred Michael Caine robbing a bank with two other likeable rogues the difference is that was fiction and King of Thieves wasn’t and while they might be portrayed in the film as loveable geezers they were far from that in real life.

Over the last 17 years nine years have seen a British film open the second weekend of September four released by Studiocanal (made by Working Title films); Victoria and Abdul £9,434,937; Bridget Jones’s Baby £48,150,737; Legend £18,202,111; Rush £9,793,677; The Sweeney £4,255,082; Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy £14,133,500; Pride and Prejudice £14,438,256; Calendar Girls £20,174,133; and next year Downtown Abbey: The Movie will join that list.

Will shortly overtake The Commuter to become Studiocanal’s third biggest film of the year after Early Man and The Guernsey Literary and Potato Peel Pie Society;

While this weekend might have three films from independent distributors all three of them have had disappointing years compared to previous years as the marketplace is squeezed with lesser high-profile films available for the distributors to but why it’s important they have regular content from production companies Working Title for Studiocanal releasing a couple films each year that Universal Pictures don’t release and for eOne the output deal with Steven Spielberg’s Amblin.

Last year Studiocanal UK took about £50m at the UK box office with Paddington 2 taking a large percentage £42.64m, this year they will unlikely take half about £25m.

  1. The Nun – £1,021,628   – £9,497,601   

Down 44.26% in its third weekend; despite poor reviews is holding better than the previous The Conjuring films being the only fil of the franchise to take £1m+ in its third weekend as The Conjuring was only released 5 years ago that is comparable.

After three weeks The Nun has overtaken the final totals of The Conjuring. Annabelle and Annabelle: Creation.

Th Nun is currently holding similar to The Conjuring 2 total so depending on how it holds this weekend against the limited competition it could surprise everyone and be the biggest film of the series to date.

Next year a further Annabelle film is due to be released (which should see the series top £50m at the UK box office) and then in 2020 The Conjuring 3; Currently The Conjuring franchise goes from strength to strength but needs to be careful not to dilute the brand too much as Paramount Pictures did with their low budget horror franchise Paranormal Activity.

The Nun will shortly become Warner Bros fourth film to take over £10m at the box office after Ready Player One, The Meg and Ocean’s Eight. After a disappointing fist 5 months for the studio, the last few months have seen a turnaround while of course, not to the height they are used to them do of course have A Star is Born and Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them Part 2 still to open both expected to perform strongly. While Aquaman and Smallfoot should also perform decently.

UK box office in detail

This weekend’s top 10 box office took £10,913,233 up 13.12% from last weekend £9,647,147

The weekend admissions 1,386,688 up 13.1% from last weekend 1,225,813; 2018 average ticket up 3.87% from last year’s £7.49 to £7.87 for 2018 according to six-month box office results.

17 films opened at weekend taking £6,539,336; The House with A Clock in Its Walls 51.54% (£3,370,591): A Simple Favour 24.8% (£1,621,900); Mile 22 12.17% (£795,888); remaining 14 films shared 11.48% (£750,957): Top two took 45.74% of the top 10; The House with A Clock in Its Walls 30.88% and A Simple Favour 14.86%

The weekend was down 24.35% from 2017 (£14,426,113): Kingsman: The Golden Circle £8,525,664; Maze £123,985; Borg vs. McEnroe £101,918;  

Down 6.3% from 2016: (£11,647,518): The Magnificent Seven £2,132,609; The Girl with All the Gifts £432,529; Michael Buble: Tour Stop 148 £145,151; The Rolling Stones: Havana Moon (Concert) £56,666;

Up 17.1% from 2015; (£9,319,305); Everest £3,160,154; A Walk in the Woods £252,175; The Battle of Britain At 75 (Concert) £225,942; Bill £221,807; The D Train £8,516;

Up 78.62% from 2014: (£6,109,464); A Walk Among the Tombstones  £1,317,948; The Riot Club £496,647; 20,000 Days on Earth £356,467; Magic in the Moonlight £273,998; The Giver £186,989; Think Like a Man too £131,138; Wish I Was Here £27,739;

Up 65.69% from 2013: (£6,586,232); Diana £623,051; R.I.P.D.£506,521; The Call £409,975; Cold comes the Night £4,833;

Up 68.4% from 2012 (£6,476,971); Killing Them Softly £955,506; The House at the End of the Street £796,041; Savages £379,898; Now is Good £317,451; Tower Block £36,371; Hysteria £9,903; Intouchables £109,328; Raiders of the Lost Ark (Re: 2012) £73,558

Up 46.8% from 2011 (£7,431,246): Crazy, Stupid, Love £860,112; Warrior £808,410; Drive £607,454; Killer Elite £481,143; Jurassic Park (Re: 2011) £245,422; Soul Surfer £47,293; Page One: Inside the New York Times £6,757

Up 65% from 2010: (£6,612,218): Eat Pray Love £1,165,234; The Town £1,005,039; 3-D The Hole £906,722; World’s Greatest Dad £19,093

Up 89.2% from 2009 (£5,767,172); Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs £1,583,544; Gamer £641,568; The Firm £310,060; Away We Go £250,211;

Up 63.9% from 2008 (£6,654,546); Tropic Thunder £2,483,271;

Up 68.7% from 2007 (£6,468,802); I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry £1,090,831; Death Proof £407,525; A Mighty Heart £153,028; As You Like It £9,444; Evening £20,836; Clubland £1,808;

Up 108.8% from 2006; (£5,225,385); The Children of Men £1,284,254; Trust the Man £280,929; Dirty Sanchez £257,034; Clerks II £223,046

Up 78.1% from 2005 (£6,125,984); Revolver £882,814; Land of the Dead £870,285; Howl’s Moving Castle £212,628;  

Up 65.3% from 2004 (£6,598,718): Wimbledon £1,699,096; Hero £1,005,571; Cellular £427,365; The Punisher £186,017;

Up 41.57% from 2003 (£7,710,363); The Italian Job £2,294,027; Underworld £1,487,839; Le Divorce £93,061; Raising Victor Vargas £50,672;

Up 57.3% from 2002 (£6,934,104): My Big Fat Greek Wedding £1,503,436; Swimfan £396,425; Road To Perdition £256,035;

Up 58.3% from 2001 (£6,893,581); A.I. £2,285,786; Crazy/Beautiful £137,017

Next weekend in 2017: (£9,737,689); Goodbye Christopher Robin £781,110; Flatliners £486,721; Home Again £484,124

Also opened

  • Mile 22 – STX International

Opened with £795,888

Disappointing opening for the action thriller that was many critics guilty secret would have expected it to open similar to Den of Thieves opening in January with £1,082,560 taking £2,790,151 especially as it had a five-day opening and with The Predator dropping heavily.

  • The Little Stranger – Pathe

Opened with £300,089

Just missed out on getting in the top 10; after receiving positive reviews and having a strong marketing campaign should have opened stronger

Other News

  • The Predator – £677,078  – £3,886,572

Dropped 73% in its second weekend; the 36th biggest wide release second weekend drop but its hard to compare with many of them as The Predator had two days of previews but most of them had far more days of previews.

The ten biggest second weekend drops Silence, Sisters, The Watch, Transformers: Age of Extinction, Ice Age: Collision Course, A Monster Calls, Bad Neighbours, Assassin’s Creed, Harry Potter: Prisoner of Azkaban and Warcraft: The Beginning with the exception of Ice Age: Collision Course had 7 day opening weekends but had two weekends of previews instead.

For most of them,UK BO sep 25 opening week was responsible for over 60% of its total box office, this compares to about 40% for most films that have two days of previews like Deadpool 2 earlier this year.

UK Box Office Top 10

US BO Sept 24th

US Box office

  • The House with A Clock in Its Walls – Universal Pictures

Opened with $26.6m; received mixed reviews (67% Rotten Tomatoes) and B+ CinemaScore

Having similar opening as Tim Burton’s Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children opened in September 2016 with $28,871,140 taking $87,242,834 and $296,485,719 worldwide

2015’s Goosebumps opened $23,618,556 – taking $80,080,379 – $150,170,815 worldwide

Took $8.7m from 22 territories shared between Universal Pictures and Amblin

  • A Simple Favour – Lionsgate

Dropped 36% in its second weekend taking $10.25m and $32.41m total

Holding well in its second weekend due to strong word of mouth despite mixed reviews as Anna Kendrick and Blake Lively have a growing fanbase who don’t get to see enough of them as they are often in small releases that don’t get wide releases.

Took $5.2m internationally from 36 territories total $10m

  • The Predator – 20th Century Fox

Drops 62.7% in its second weekend taking $9.17m and $40.91m

After poor word of mouth, it’s no surprise the film dropped heavily in its second weekend and might not even beat the originals 1987 total.

Predator in June 1987 took $59.73m – $98.3m worldwide

Predator 2 in November 1990 took $30.66m – $57.1m worldwide

Predators in July 2010 took $52m– $127.2m worldwide

Alien Vs. Predator in August 2004 took $80,28m – $172.5m worldwide

Aliens Vs. Predator: Requiem in December 2007 took $41.79m – $128.9m worldwide

While 20th Century Fox has had strong success with adult original films have had issues sequels to their older films The Predator poor box office is only a year after Alien: Covenant. With Disney likely taking ownership of the studio an having little interest in R rated content with the poor performance of both films it’s unlikely the franchise will continue.

Internationally took $15.4m and $54.5m total from 82 territories

  • The Nun – Warner Bros

Down 43.8% in its third weekend taking $9.96m and $100.61m

Will shortly overtake Annabelle: Creation $102.09m; The Conjuring 2 $102.47m; The Conjuring 2 $137.4m

The five Conjuring films have taken $511.35m in the US and $1.43bn worldwide; with budgets of less than $20m a tiny fraction of Marvel Cinematic Universe films they are probably more profitable than most films released this year.

Took $35.4m internationally from 80 territories with $192m total and $292.8m worldwide; overtaking Annabelle $257m and shortly Annabelle: Creation took $306.5m; The Conjuring $319.5m; The Conjuring 2 $320.4m

  • Crazy Rich Asians – Warner

Down only 25% in its sixth weekend taking $6.51m and $159.43m

Continues to perform similarly to 2011’s The Help which took $6.51m in its sixth weekend and $147.39m and went on to take $169m. Final box office for Crazy Rich Asians is expected to be $190m+.

it is the 7th biggest rom-com in the US overtaking Runaway Bride and Sex and the City and will shortly overtake 2009’s The Proposal expected to take over $190m.  

Internationally took $7.3m from 29 territories with total of $37.9m; 

  • Fahrenheit 11/9 – Briarcliff

Opened with $3.1m; received positive reviews and A CinemaScore

The film performed strongly in New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, and Chicago but elsewhere underwhelmed should have opened on platform release rather than opening wide. After receiving its world premiere at Telluride last weekend receiving positive reviews platform release would give it a momentum for further expansion.

  • Assassination Nation – Neon

Opened with $1.02m; received mixed reviews (60% Rotten Tomatoes)

  • Life Itself – Amazon Studios

Opened with $2.12m; received poor reviews 13% Rotten Tomatoes and B+ CinemaScore

Dan Fogelman’s film received poor reviews which saw the director go on the attack against critics which is never a good move.

UK Box Office Predictions

UK BO preds Oct 2nd

This weekend is the calm before the storm of A Star is Born, Venom and Johnny English Strikes Back next weekend all three films targetting different demographics.

The House with A Clock in Its Walls should hold #1 with Night School opening in second as with films like Crazy Rich Asians won’t perform as strongly as in the US opening similar to Tiffany Haddish’s Girls Trip as A Simple Favour and Crazy Rich Asians will both hold well both have strong word of mouth.

Opening in the UK

  • Night School – Universal Pictures  

Comedy starring Kevin Hart and Tiffany Haddish and directed by Malcolm D. Lee

Kevin Hart’s first film since Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and Tiffany Haddish’s since last year’s Girls Trip.

Girls Trip opened in July 2017 with £1,557,981 including £399,537 previews taking £8,869,229

But it’s hard to compare Night School with any of Kevin Hart’s more recent films as he was co-starring them with the likes of Dwayne Johnson have to go back to 2015’s The Wedding Ringer which was the game-changer for comedies starring African American actors that weren’t Will Smith or Eddie Murphy.

Sony Pictures brought Kevin Hart to the UK and the film received strong media coverage previously studios would dump these films out internationally as they still do with Tyler Perry films. Will be interesting to see how Paramount Pictures handle Nobody’s Fool also starring Tiffany Haddish opening in November as it will be Tyler Perry’s first film to have a major release in the UK.

Wedding Ringers opened February 2015 with £990,445 taking £2,119,244

  • The Wife – Picturehouse Entertainment

Drama starring Glenn Close, Jonathan Pryce, and Christian Slater and directed by Björn Runge based on the novel by Meg Wolitzer; premiered at the 2017 Toronto International Film Festival receiving positive reviews with some describing Glenn Close performance the best of her career.

Opened on limited release in the US last month

Opening in the US

 

  • Night School – Universal Pictures

The comedy starring Kevin Hart and Tiffany Haddish is a sorta remake of the Adam Sandler 1995 film Billy Madison opened with $6.64m taking $25.58m

Night School is expected to open with more than the total box office of Billy Madison but of course, opened 23 years ago when average ticket price was only $4.35 it’s up over 115% since.

While Billy Madison was Adam Sandler’s first solo lead role having had small parts in various films before including Airheads and Mixed Nuts which both took $6m. In 1995 the Batman Forever had the biggest opening of $52.78m with most films having openings in their teens with Billy Madison 61st biggest opening; Toy Story was the biggest film of the year with $191.79m and Billy Madison was 65th between Houseguest and Desperado.

In comparison Kevin Hart has starred in more than a dozen films and his most recent Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, Central Intelligence, Ride Along 2 and Get Hard have all performed strongly but benefited with the likes of Dwayne Johnson as co-stars. Have to go back to 2015 The Wedding Ringer for the last film he toplined opened with $20.64m taking $64.46m.

While Tiffany Haddish is coming off last years “surprise” hit Girl Trip so pairing them up should mean a strong opening despite receiving early mixed reviews.

Expected to open between $25m-$35m but as with these films it’s very hard to predict as often they play much stronger.

Tiffany Haddish has many films released over the next year with Nobody’s Fool in November, followed by The Kitchen and Limited Partners and vocally in The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part and The Secret Life of Pets 2 all opening next year.

  • Smallfoot – Warner Bros

Animated musical comedy adventure featuring the voices of Channing Tatum, James Corden, Zendaya, Common, LeBron James, Gina Rodriguez and Danny DeVito and directed by Karey Kirkpatrick and Jason Reisig, based on the book Yeti Tracks by Sergio Pablos.

It is the fifth film from Warner Animation Group after The Lego Movie, Storks, The Lego Batman Movie and The Lego Ninjago Movie and The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part is released next February.

Warner Bros animation have had mixed success The Lego Movie and The Lego Batman Movie were huge successes but then The Lego Ninjago Movie and Storks underwhelmed.

Reviews for Smallfoot have been positive and being the only animated film on release should help it open with $25m+

Warner Bros will, of course, be expecting bigger things next February with The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part which hopefully will be as similar as fun as the original. When The Lego Movie was first announced thoughts were of films like Battleship but then when I saw the first teaser trailer on a loop it was a real surprise as the film was

Hopefully, the sequel will be too, as The Lego Batman Movie was the best DC film since The Dark Knight Rises

  • The Old Man & the Gun – Fox Searchlight

Crime comedy starring Robert Redford, Casey Affleck, Danny Glover, Tika Sumpter, Tom Waits and Sissy Spacek and directed by David Lowery based on the true-life story of Forrest Tucker and based on David Grann’s 2003 article in The New Yorker titled The Old Man and the Gun; had world premiere at the Telluride Film Festival in August receiving critical acclaim.

It is one of Fox Searchlight’s final slate of award contenders they will release before 20th Century Fox is acquired by Disney. Bob Iger has said that Fox Searchlight will keep operating as is currently as he will be hoping to continue to win Oscars. While Disney films are hugely successful at the box office Disney has yet to win Best Film with a Disney film; they won Oscars by default when they owned Miramax.

Fox Searchlight acquired US and UK rights in March 2017

In August Robert Redford announced it would be his final acting role he has since said that he might have said that too soon.