Top 5 Breakdown
- Mary Poppins Returns – £7,441,687 –£23,243,909
Took 97.7% from 2D (£22,697,271); 2.3% from IMAX (£534,551)
Down 9.94% in its second weekend lower than Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again (27.02%) and Bridget Jones’s Baby (20.43%) and took almost 50% of the top 10 box office.
Had the second biggest second weekend of the year after Avengers Infinity War (£10.14m); Jurassic World 2, Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again, Black Panther, Incredibles 2, Bohemian Rhapsody, Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them 2, Peter Rabbit and The Grinch filled out the top 10 of the biggest second weekends. Some as Mary Poppins Returns had the advantage of second weekends being part of school holidays and Mary Poppins Returns second weekend was the most lucrative of the year as unlike other holiday periods weather is never an issue.
Had the lowest second weekend drop of the year but the weekend after Christmas will often see films hold strongly or even increase from the weekend before. If Mary Poppins Returns really had the strong word of mouth comparable to The Greatest Showman, it would have increased its box office this weekend especially as its opening was much lower than would have expected.
Had the 8th biggest opening week of the year after Avengers Infinity War, Black Panther, Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again, Jurassic World 2, Deadpool 2, Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them 2, and Incredibles 2 taking £15.55m and 71st biggest ever
In 2012 The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey increased its BO in its third weekend up 15% while second weekend of Life of Pi dropped 5%
In 2013 The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug increased its BO in its third weekend b y 2% and Frozen down 10% in fourth weekend.
In 2014 Paddington increased its box office by 2% in fifth weekend
2015 was the only recent year films didn’t increase but that was because Friday was Christmas day limited the weekend to two days
In 2016 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story increased by 4% in its third weekend; Moana up 45% in its fifth weekend and Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them up 62% in its seventh weekend (Fantastic Beasts 2 increased 4% this year in its seventh weekend)
Had the 119th biggest opening weekend in the UK between Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and Les Miserables (close to Paddington 2, High School Musical 3, The Lion, The Witch And The Wardrobe, Bridget Jones’s Baby, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory); 195th biggest inflation inflated between Godzilla and Sex and the City 2 (close to Notting Hill, Elf and A Bug’s Life) 86th biggest Fri-Sun opening between Paddington 2 and Les Miserables (close to Avatar, Finding Dory, Toy Story 2 and Bridget Jones’s Baby).
Has the second biggest second weekend of the year Avengers Infinity War slightly ahead of Jurassic World: Gallen Kingdom and Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again
Was the 9th biggest opening of 2018 and the 3rd biggest Fri-Sun opening this year after Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes Of Grindelwald and Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again (showing how previews affect film opening so much nowadays).
Two weeks ago, the day before Mary Poppins Returns opened UK Cinema Association announced November 2018 admissions of 14.8m with 11month total of 161.3m and that they were expected to top 176m for he first time since 1970. Did think that announcement was made far too soon after the previous two weeks box office was much lower than last year. After admissions had topped 14m for the last 5 years surely would do the same with the sequel to one of the most beloved films in British cinema history. In 1964/65 Marry Poppins had 14m admissions on its own and was one of the top 10 films ever at the UK box office in 1965, 54years later its still the 29th biggest ever inflation inflated.
Ahead of release while Mary Poppins Returns felt like another Disney memberries film still thought while it might not be as successful as original in the US, UK audiences will fall for it as they did earlier in the year for Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again with it becoming one of the biggest films of the year but now it won’t take £25m in 2018.
The problem with Mary Poppins Returns is there isn’t really any film to compare it as while critics say its fine, which would be fine for any other film but for Mary Poppins as Star Wars fine isn’t good enough. If Disney want to make sequels to their classics, they need to be as practically perfect as the films that came before it, while not just being shot by shot remakes which The Force Awakens was to A New Hope and many fear The Lion King live-action animated remake of their animated classic.
Second weekends
Les Miserables dropped 46% in January 2013 with taking £4,406,828 and £17,360,303
The Jungle Book dropped 18% in April 2016 taking £8,095,442 and £21,662,461
Alice In Wonderland dropped 30.4% taking £7,343,506 and £22,749,115
Many believe Mary Poppins Returns will have strong legs being a musical as they did with Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again but it took £487,441 26% less than Bohemian Rhapsody (£656,641) in its ninth weekend and 76% less than The Greatest Showman (£2,000,922).
Words including fine and decent have been used to describe Mary Poppins Returns film and its box office performance, but can they really be used to describe a sequel to one of the most beloved films ad biggest films at the UK box office over the last 50 years.
Are double standards as a few weeks ago with the performance of the Fantastic Beasts sequel has taken 20% less globally than the original was seen as a disappointment, while its budget/marketing costs were $100m more will take $200m+ at the box office.
Similarly Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again took 35% less than Mamma Mia! 10 years ago (ticket inflation since of 50% and budget costs up 40%) was seen as a success despite also taking l10% less than The Greatest Showman globally.
Critically many have described Mary Poppins Returns as fine, but you are comparing that to the originally being “practically perfect in every way”
Mary Poppins Returns second weekend was 208.9% more than The Greatest Showman, 93.9% Paddington, 70.1% La La Land, 68.9% Les Miserables, 63.1% Mamma Mia! 15.3% Bridget Jones’s Baby, 12.5% Paddington 2, 4.7% more than Mamma Ma! Her We Go Again and 1.3% £7,343,506 Alice In Wonderland.
But 39.6% less than Beauty and the Beast, 9.6% Dunkirk, 8.2% Toy Story 3, 8.1% The Jungle Book
Had the 22nd biggest second weekend in the UK between The Fellowship of the Ring and Alice In Wonderland and 55th biggest inflation inflated second weekend between Godzilla and Sex and the City 2 (close to Notting Hill, Elf and A Bug’s Life) 86th biggest Fri-Sun opening between Meet the Fockers and iron Man 3 (close to Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, The Inbetweeners Movie, Lion, The Witch And The Wardrobe, Bridget Jones’s Diary and Love Actually.
Ahead of its release expected Mary Poppins Returns to perform closer to Beauty and the Beast than to The Jungle Book reimaginations bur opened with 16.7% less than The Jungle Book £8,152,210 and took 8.1% less than The Jingle Book in its second weekend; The Jungle Book is the 47th biggest film in the UK taking £46.23m and Mary Poppins Returns will likely come short of it which is about 30% less than I would of expected a few weeks ago.
Being a British film it was always expected to perform much stronger in the US than elsewhere globally as 2018’s Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! taking £65,515,994; 2005’s The Lion, The Witch And The Wardrobe taking £43,905,853; 2016’s Bridget Jones’s Baby taking £48,150,737; 2017’s Paddington 2 taking £42,642,938
Many have compared Mary Poppins Returns with The Greatest Showman but are two very different films little was expected from many when The Greatest Showman opened a year ago and became “the film we need right now” over weeks while Mary Poppins Returns was marketed as the film we need now. Mary Poppins Returns has much more in common with Mamma Mia Here We Go Again.
While The Greatest Showman soundtrack celebrated its first year on the album charts #1 having its 24th non-consecutive week at #1 having the most weeks at #1 for an album this century, overtaking Adele’s 21 which had 23 weeks #1 between February 2011 and April 2012.
The soundtrack has been in the top 5 since its second week on release in December 2017. While Mary Poppins Returns soundtrack released December 7th doesn’t seem to be charting yet?
Will be interesting to see if Mary Poppins Returns or A Star is Born wins Best Score this weekend at the Golden Globes as must have been everyone’s favourite to win Best Song and Best Score as the original film did in 1965. While cinemagoers came out humming soundtrack to A Star Is Born and The Greatest Showman hasn’t been similar reaction to Mary Poppins returns soundtrack which is the most surprising aspect of the film.
- Bumblebee – £5,103,382 – NE
After taking £2,425,525 from 6 days of previews
Took 91.2% from 2D (£4,632,322); 4.1% from 3D (£208,710); 2.1% from IMAX (£105,444)
Despite receiving the best reviews of all Transformers only opened 9.6% bigger despite having five more days of previews over weekends and school holidays (Transformers: The Last Knight had one day of previews on Thursday).
Opening so close to Aquaman and Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse the three films were always likely to cannibalize each other as they were all targetting similar audiences. Last year Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, Pitch Perfect 3 and The Greatest Showman targeted a much wider demographic which saw all of them perform strongly.
Had the 238th biggest opening in the UK between Tangled and Ocean’s Eleven (close to Paddington, Ready Player One, Scooby-Doo and The BFG); but as its opening was inflated with previews had the 411th biggest Fri-Sun between Ghostbusters and The Last Samurai (close to How to Train your Dragon, Monsters vs. Aliens and Cars) and 349th inflation inflated opening between Murder on the Orient Express and The Expendables (close to Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues, Independence Day: Resurgence, Daddy’s Home 2 and Pokemon: The First Movie)
2007’s Transformers opened with £8,718,561
2009’s Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen opened with £8,349,739
2011’s Transformers: Dark of the Moon opened with £10,728,503
2014’s Transformers: Age of Extinction opened with £11,756,482
2017’s Transformers: The Last Knight opened with £4,635,570
As Bumblebee Transformers: Dark of the Moon and Transformers: Age of Extinction both had extensive previews inflated their opening with £4,226,736 and £8,044,230
Bumblebee was originally rated 12A by the BBFC but was reclassified as a PG after several seconds were cut Paramount Pictures did similar in Australia as the trailers tonally make the film look like its aimed at a much younger audience similar to Jumanji or Monsters Trucks.
- Aquaman – £2,445,108 – £14,353,312
Took 85.9% from 2D (£12,327,910); 8.4% from 3D (£1,203,316); 0.5% from IMAX; 5.3% from 3D/IMAX (£757,215)
Up 2.54% in its third weekend holding incredibly well despite the arrival of Bumblebee and the strong hold of Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse showing how strong word of mouth has been. Despite this its third weekend was still 4.3% less than Suicide Squad (£2,549,043) received far worse reviews and word of mouth; Suicide Squad held stronger in August 2016 as had little competition.
Aquaman has now become Warner Bros fifth biggest film of 2018 will shortly overtake Ready Player One and The Meg
The six DC Extended Universe films have now taken over £150m at the UK; previous five DC films that included Christopher Nolan’s Dark Knight Trilogy took £142m and the previous four Batman films took £56m; 15 DC films since Batman in 1989 have taken over £350m.
- Holmes and Watson – £1,418,030 – NE
Taking £607,532 from two days of previews and £810,498 Fri-Sun
10 years ago Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly starred together in the comedy classic Step Brothers opened August 2008 with £1,681,492 taking £6,154,637, over the years since has become a cult classic.
Etan Cohen’s previous directed Get Hard (also starred Will Ferrell) opened March 2015 with £1,438,389 taking £4,777,788
Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby opened September 2006 with £1,033,759 taking £3,198,155
Anchor Man opened September 2004 with £555,864 taking £1,465,538
Sony Pictures didn’t press screen the film days after opening received 0% Rotten Tomatoes score a few days after opening score has gone up to 8%; were reports of walkouts in the US.
Over the year have been many versions of Sherlock Holmes early this year Sherlock Gnomes 9opened with £2,522,342) and Guy Ritchie’s Sherlock Holmes starring Robert Downey Jr and Jude Law in 2009 (opened with £3,439,616) and Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows in 2011 (opened with £3,827,697) with a third film set for release in 2021; has also been the Benedict Cumberbatch’s Sherlock; 30 years ago was similar spoof Sherlock Holmes Without a Clue received similar poor reviews.
After receiving poor reviews and poor word of mouth and 43% of its opening box office from its first two days of previews will drop heavily this weekend.
The film was first announced in 2008 with Sacha Baron Cohen as Holmes and Will Ferrell; filming started in December 2016 and was originally set for August 2018 before moving to November and then December which has often been the dumping ground in the US for Christmas turkeys; first trailer was released in September.
- Ralph Breaks The Internet £1,269,357 – £13,266,916
Up 20.2% in its fifth weekend due to The Grinch dropping off heavily now Christmas is over after being in the shadow of The Grinch since opened has now become the first-choice children’s film and will be for the next four weeks until How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World opens.
Up 70% from Wreck-It Ralph’s fifth weekend in March 2013 took £744,683 and £21,459,657 of £23,607,542 total; in its fifth weekend Wreck-It Ralph faced competition from Oz: The Great and Powerful opening with £3,712,948 taking £14,987,064.
While Wreck-It Ralph box office was boosted in its second weekend with half term for the first four weeks Ralph Breaks The Internet was limited mostly to weekend matinees and against The Grinch which held surprisingly strongly.
Two years ago Moana took £1,620,268 (28% more) up 45% taking 3% more £13,701,447 in its fifth Moana took £8,358,415 over the Christmas period with total of £20,041,031.
In 2016 Mona was the only family film released for Christmas holidays as Monster Trucks and Ballerina weren’t really much competition, but Ralph Breaks The Internet has to deal with The Grinch continuing to hold much stronger than many expected.
In 2015 The Good Dinosaur took £398,994 and £10,087,292 and took £5,741,737 over the Christmas period with total of £14,810,130; The Good Dinosaur had competition from Snoopy And Charlie kBrown: The Peanuts Movie and Daddy’s Home.
Maybe after The Emoji Movie, The Lego Movie and Ready Player One audiences weren’t as excited about the sequel as they were for Wreck-It Ralph. While Ralph Breaks The Internet had some nice touches including the famous Disney princess scene wasn’t nearly as fun or original as the first film, but that is of course the problem with sequels they repeat the best bits from previous film don’ often expand the story.
UK box office in detail
This weekend’s top 10 box office took £21,066,980 up 27.6% from last weekend £16,504,160
The weekend admissions 2,746,673 30.1% from last weekend 2,112,280 average ticket up from last year’s £7.49 to £7.67 for 2018;
4 films opened at weekend taking £6,645,184; Bumblebee 77.8% (£5,103,382); Holmes and Watson 19.1% (£1,418,030); remaining 2 films shared 4.1% (£272,445): Top three took 71.1% (£14,990,177) of the top 10; Mary Poppins Returns 49.6% (£7,441,687); Bumblebee (£5,103,382) 34.1%; Aquaman (£2,445,108) 16.3%
The weekend was down 14.1% from 2017: (£24,534,387); The Greatest Showman (£4,754,049); Berliner Philharmoniker: New Year’s Eve Concert (£61,387) Star Wars: The Last Jedi £7,975,174 (3rd week)
Up 21.6% from 2016: (£17,313,519); Why Him? (£2,183,715); Monster Trucks (£1,726,229); Collateral Beauty (£1,177,943); Berliner Philharmoniker Live 2016 – New Year’s Gala Concert (£51,162); #1 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story £5,959,299 (3rd week)
Down 20.2% from 2015; (£17,525,083); Snoopy and Charlie Brown: A Peanuts Movie (£3,639,383); Daddy’s Home (£1,628,219); In the Heart of the Sea (£570,543); #1 Star Wars: The Force Awakens £10,164,805 (2nd week)
Up 28.5% from 2014: (£16,382,437); Exodus: Gods and Kings (£2,607,453); Annie (£2,310,453); Unbroken (£656,991); Big Eyes (£135,582); #1 The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies £4,249,226 (3rd week)
Up 16.2% from 2013: (£18,132,029); The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (£2,235,612); 47 Ronin (£1,415,252); All Is Lost (£231,595); Justin Bieber’s Believe (£205,242); #1 The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug £5,358,380 £5,450,824 (3rd week)
Up 3.4% from 2012 (£20,367,014); Jack Reacher (£3,575,066); Parental Guidance (£1,293,400); Midnight’s Children (£101,725); Safety Not Guaranteed (£33,028); #1 The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey £6,850,728 (3rd week)
Up 7.6% from 2011 (£19,565,424); Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol (£8,188,209); The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (£4,325,594); The Lady (£91,690); The Artist (£48,445); #1 Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol £8,188,209 (1st week)
Up 252.3% from 2010: (£5,980,170); Little Fockers (£3,035,717); Arthur and the Great Adventure (£83,875); #1 Little Fockers £3,035,717 (1st week)
n/a xx% from 2009 n/a #1 Avatar £3,828,123 (2nd week)
n/a xx% from 2008; n/a
Down 0.9% from 2007:( £21,258,964); I am Legend (£11,009,365); Balls of Fury (£638,761); The Kite Runner (£468,592); Closing the Ring (£23,339); #1 I am Legend £11,009,365 (1st week)
Up 38.3% from 2006; (£15,231,586); Night at the Museum (£7,690,312); It’s a Boy Girl Thing (£850,290); Perfume (£485,200); #1 Night at the Museum £7,690,312 (1st week)
Up 78.9% from 2005 (£11,774,274); Cheaper By The Dozen 2 (£2,287,967); The Producers (£1,311,179); Just Like Heaven (£1,201,381); #1 The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe £2,994,438 (4th week)
Up 210.6% from 2004 (£6,781,968); Without a Paddle (£595,060); #1 The Incredibles £1,296,333 (1st week)
n/a xx% from 2003 n/a #1 Lord of the Rings: Return of the King £7,100,000 (2nd week)
up 58.9% from 2002 (£13,253,300); Chicago (£113,386); Blood Work (£61,053); #1 Lord of the Rings: Two Towers £8,177,801 (2nd week)
Up 47.4% from 2001 (£14,285,925); The Mean Machine (£1,573,594); Serendipity (£635,042); #1 The Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Rings £7,825,995 (2nd week)
Next weekend in 2017: (£17,391,172); Molly’s Game (£2,283,420); All the Money in the World (£1,161,476); Hostiles (£380,718); Brad’s Status (£33,579); Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (£3,895,450) 1st week
Other Box Office News
In October Screendaily first announced admissions were on track to grow this year for the first time since 2002.
Two weeks ago the day before Mary Poppins Returns opened UK Cinema Association announced November admissions had increased and that admissions were on track to be the highest since 1970, December only needed 14m to see admissions top 176m.
Admissions have surpassed 14m for the last five years so were expected to do similar in December as Mary Poppins Returns should have been a perfect replacement for not having a Star Wars film as original film has beloved audiences for the last 54 years.
But after box office was down for the first two weeks of December from 2017 did think to announce it so early was surprising especially after Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again wasn’t as big as many expected. While Mary Poppins was never likely to have the same legs as The Greatest Showman last year.
But the industry had an ace in the hole as average ticket prices were expected to be over 20p less than 2017 despite many articles across the UK in 2018 about how expensive cinema tickets have become and only day after Odeon Leicester Square announced their ticket pricing structure with one Royal Circle ticket now the same price as almost 11 seats at Odeon Darlington 200 miles away.
Exhibitors have reduced a selective number of cinemas across the UK, but they are ones close to new multiplexes , while Odeon have been busy installing recliners in many of their cinemas reducing capacity but increasing prices.
I did a rough calculation using box office up to Sunday and even if industry claims ticket prices have dropped it looks like the maximum admissions will be is 13m. Making 2018 the most disappointing of the last 16 years of no admission growth, might seem to be negativity but industry has been in denial of the issues since 2002 as I believe admissions should of continued to grow in 2003 and would still be growing today.
But exhibitors too their eye off the game with the film to digital conversion which was done far too soon and more recently with their obsession with recliners as it doesn’t improve the cinema experience. The same issues there were with 35mm about poor presentation is still here despite digital was meant to give everyone the same quality presentation across the UK with IMAX, PLF, Laser, 4DX available across the UK.
UK Box Office Top 10
US Box office
- Aquaman – Warner Bros
Down 22.6% in its second weekend taking $52.14m and $189.37m
Aquaman has taken 10% more than Justice League after 10 days (took $229m) and 24% ahead of the Doctor Strange $152.9m (took $232.6m) and 7% ahead of Guardians of the Galaxy $176.5m (took $333.1m).Will be 8% less than 10-day total of Wonder Woman $206.3m (took $412.5m)
The six DC Extended Universe films have now taken $1.66bn at the US box office and $4.25bn worldwide.
Aquaman had the second biggest second weekend of DC Extended Universe film after 2017’s Wonder Woman $58.52m but opened with 35% more so were expected to have bigger second weekends, Aquaman held much stronger as the Christmas weekend is the most lucrative of the year. Most films see an increase even Robin Hood increased its box office in it sixth weekend by 26%.
After a slight second weekend drop in its second weekend if Aquaman drops under 30% as Wonder Woman then could be on its way to match Man of Steel box office as there are no major releases for two weeks until Glass opens.
Deadline reported Aquaman is playing as strong to women than men pushing the hunk factor of Jason Moma and female leads Nicole Kidman and Amber Heard while received much media coverage with the news Julie Andrews has a cameo, rather the expected cameo in Mary Poppins Returns.
Aquaman performance has helped Warner Bros become the second biggest studio in 2018 taking $1.77bn after Disney taking $3bn but Warner Bros had a much more mixed slate of films and genres from A Star Is Born, Crazy Rich Asians to The Meg while Disney was property heavy; Warner Bros also took $5.3bn worldwide again impressive for the slate of films released
Took $85.4m internationally from 78 territories $560m total and $748.8m worldwide ($65m from IMAX; IMAX films have taken over £1bn globally at the box office in 2018); #93 biggest film worldwide between Shrek Forever After and X-Men: Days of Future Past.
Aquaman has overtaken the global box office of Justice League ($657.9m); Man of Steel ($668m); Suicide Squad ($746.9m) and will over the next 10 days overtake both Wonder Woman ($832.8m) and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice ($873.6m) to be the biggest DC Extended Universe film and the biggest Warner Bros DC film since The Dark Knight Rises in 2012. .
Aquaman is expected to top $900m worldwide with some saying it could top $1bn; only 8 comic-book movies have taken over $1bn six Marvel films and two DC (The Dark Knight and The Dark Knight Rises)
The six DC Extended Universe films have taken $1.776bn in the US and $4.51bn worldwide
After the disappointing performance of Justice League Aquaman has surprisingly got DC Extended Universe back on track and few a few years ago might of thought Aquaman would be the film to do that.
After having 12-month gap between Justice League and Aquaman will be six-month gaps between Shazam! In April and Joker in October and then five-month gaps between Birds of Prey in February 2020 and Wonder Woman 1984 in June 2020.
Top 5 international territories China ($260.4m; 6th highest grossing import of all time and the biggest Warner Bros film); Korea’s $24.8m, Brazil’s $23.7m, Mexico’s $22.4m and the UK’s $18.2m.
- Mary Poppins Returns – Disney
Up 20.53% in its second weekend taking $28.35m and $99.26m
Box office experts were predicting Mary Poppins Returns would have similar legs to The Greatest Showman, but The Greatest Showman increased by 76% in its second weekend. Have said it’s taken 102% more than The Greatest Showman but The Greatest Showman was its strong hold after several weeks on release; 2012’s Les Miserables took $99.3m after 12 days total $148.8m.
If Marry Poppins Returns drops under 20% next weekend then they can possible start making that comparison but not yet, but even then, Mary Poppins is the sequel to a Disney classic while The Greatest Showman was never expected to take half what it did.
Mary Poppins Returns budget and marketing was over $200m they didn’t make the film if it wasn’t expected to take $600m+ similar to Mamma Mia! but what surprises me is people seem to make excuses for Disney which they wouldn’t for other studios.
Disney have become their worst enemy with re-imaginations as they need to be bigger than the previous one and this is even more the case making a sequel to a film that has beloved children of all ages for the last 54 years.
Mary Poppins returns was always more likely to hold similar to Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again as it was similarly a sequel US audiences had little interest in, the problem is Disney sold it as a property rather than a film which was always likely to disappoint as it wasn’t every going to live up to expectations.
What I find amazing is box office analysts are comparing it to The Greatest Showman a film never expected to be the success it was with the sequel to a film that was expected to be a massive success.
After Mary Poppins Returns opened lower than expected many are saying it will have similar long legs as The Greatest Showman last year but while they might be both musicals, they are very different films. Mary Poppins Returns developed to be the “movie we need now” but The Greatest Showman became that film originally.
Mary Poppins Returns has much more in common with Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again which took $15.1m down 56.8% and $70.52m taking $120.63m and $393.78m worldwide compared to Mamma Mia taking $144.16m in the US and $465.7m 10 years ago while The Greatest Showman took $174.34m and $434.99m worldwide.
Mary Poppins took $31m in 1964 had 33.3m admissions average ticket price in 1964 $0.93 which would be $313m.
Took $28.9m from 37 territories and $74.5m total (almost 40% from the UK) and $173.3m globally
- Bumblebee – Paramount Pictures
Down 3.29% in its second weekend taking $20.9m and $67.17m
After having the lowest opening for Transformers film held far stronger in its second weekend booted by the lucrative Christmas holidays.
Bumblebee was originally dated for June 8th, 2018 but was moved to December when it was revealed James Cameron Untitled wasn’t going to be Avatar 2, instead Alita: Battle Angel.
The seven Transformers films have taken $1.52bn In the US and $4.54bn worldwide.
Took $45.7m from 55 territories and $90m total
- Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse – Sony Pictures
Up 13.13% in its third weekend taking $18.82m and $104.14m
Having a decent hold against Aquaman and Bumblebee targetting similar audience but should have longer legs than Aquaman.
Big Hero 6 dropped 38.3% in its third weekend taking $21.12m and $135.74m of $222.52m.
Took $27.4m from 60 territories and $109.6m total ($45.4m from China taking over 40% of international BO j
Holding strongly internationally as it is doing in the US due to strong word of mouth
- Holmes and Watson – Sony Pictures
Opened with $7.42m and $19.86m total; received 7% Rotten Tomatoes score and D+ CinemaScore
Deadline reported Sony Pictures had tried to sell the film to Netflix, but they refused it after the film had tested poorly and been delayed as many times as last years Father Figures becoming this years Christmas turkey opened with $3.28m taking $17.5m .
Took $4m from 8 territories
- Second Act – STX Entertainment
Up 13.6% in its second weekend taking $7.35m and $21.92m
Has been compared to Working Girl which opened 30 years ago taking $7.34m I its second weekend and $16.69m and $63.77m and $102.95m worldwide.
Took $1.5m from 37 territories and $6.6m total
- Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch – Universal Pictures
Down 51.3% in its eighth weekend taking $4.16m and $265.49m
With Christmas now over audiences are losing interest in The Grinch having the biggest drop of the top 10 while Ralph Breaks the Internet increased its box office by 39% and Mary Poppins Returns 19%.
The Grinch continues to hold similar to How the Grinch Stole Christmas despite opening 18 years later taking $2.5m down 65.6% in its eighth and $257.83m taking $260.04m and $345.1m worldwide
Previous Illumination Entertainment (not Despicable Me sequels)
The Secret Life of Pets in July 2016 dropped 34% with $3.87m and $353.34m and $368.3m and $875.4m worldwide
Sing in 2017 down 58% with $1.7m and $265.4m taking $270.3m and $634.1m worldwide
While the first Despicable Me in July 2010 dropped 38.7% with $2.85m taking $237.27m and $251.5m and $543.1m worldwide
Took $17.5m from 61 territories and $203.9m total and $469.4m worldwide; #221 biggest film worldwide between Jaws and The Lego Movie.
2000’s How the Grinch Stole Christmas took 75% of its total box office from the US $260.1m Vs $85.1m and $345.1m worldwide but The Grinch split is currently 56.6% Vs 43.4%
UK is the biggest international territory with $33.8m; Germany’s $17.2m; Mexico’s $16m and Australia $12.5m
- Welcome to Marwen – Universal Pictures
Down 4.6% in its second weekend taking $2.24m in its second weekend and $7.76m
Showing how lucrative Christmas holidays can be despite its disappointing opening had a minimal second weekend drop. Also highlights if Welcome to Marwen drops only 5% and Robin Hood increases its box office by 30.6% screens despite losing 41 screens Mary Poppins Returns second weekend increase of 19.1% is far from positive.
Normality will return this weekend with Welcome to Marwen likely to drop heavily in its third weekend as it will also loose many of its screens. Welcome to Marwen is another original film failure for the Universal Pictures that could lose $50m+ but as with Mortal Engines Universal Pictures shared production costs and also cut the budget so won’t be as big a loss than it might have been.
- Ralph Breaks the Internet – Disney
Increased 43% in its sixth weekend taking $6.72m and $175.9m
Wreck-It Ralph November 2012 took $4.85m in its sixth weekend and $164.4m of $189.42m and $471.22m worldwide.
Took $13.7m from 32 territories and $174.7m and $330.4m worldwide; #361 biggest film worldwide between Speed and Dinosaur; Wreck-It Ralph #219 biggest worldwide between San Andreas and Jaws.
Had Walt Disney 3rd biggest opening in Australia behind Frozen and Tangled 20% more than the original
- If Beale Street Could Talk – Annapurna Pictures
Up 601.3% in its third weekend taking $766,224 adding 60 screens and $1.96m
Holding slightly less than Barry Jenkin’s previous film 2016’s Moonlight expand into 47 screens in its third weekend taking $1.23m and $2.98m went on to take $27,854,932 winning Best Picture at Oscars in 2017.
Received critical acclaim ever since it premiered at the Toronto Film Festival in September receiving 94% Rotten Tomatoes score
- The Favourite – Fox Searchlight
Added 19 screens (809 screens) in its sixth weekend up 16.5% taking $2.42m and $15.24m.
This time last year the major award contenders took:
Darkest Hour took $7.01m and $18.mm in its 6th weekend from 943 screens
The Shape of Water took $4.23m and $16.86m in its 5th weekend from 756 screens
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri took $873,697 and $24.36m in its 8th weekend from 266 screens
I, Tonya took $884,820 and $2.66m in its 4h weekend from 49 screens
Lady Bird took $1.9m and $31.86m in its 9th weekend from 492 screens
- Mary Queen of Scots – Focus Features
Adds 46 screens (in 841 screens) in its fourth weekend up 18.3% taking $2.69m and $9.04m total
Dropped of the top 10 but will expand again this weekend ahead of the Golden Globes awards (received five nominations).
Mary Queen of Scots received 60% Rotten Tomatoes score Vs 94% The Favourite.
- Vice – Annapurna Pictures
Opened with $7.76m and $17.67m; 64% Rotten Tomatoes received the most polarized critical reaction since probably Moher! Last year and C+ CinemaScore
Three years ago The Big Short had two weeks of platform release before opening wide with $10.53m and $70.25m but the film received much more positive reviews.
The film was originally based at Paramount Pictures but was put into turnaround shortly before production and was acquired by Annapurna Pictures after they announced a production deal with Plan B.
- Destroyer – Annapurna Pictures
Opened with $55,347 from 3 screens and $112,536 total
Disappointing platform opening despite receiving critical acclaim all highlighting Nicole Kidman’s performance
- On the Basis of Sex- Focus Features
Opened with 685,000 from 33 screens and $1.49m
Follows on from the strong performance of Ruth Bader Ginsburg RBG opened on limited release with $578,470 taking $13.01m
Reviews have been mixed receiving 74% Rotten Tomatoes
- Stan & Ollie – Sony Classics
Opened with $78,104 from 5 screens
Softish opening, despite positive reviews and John C. Reilly nominated for Globe Awards Best Actor Motion Picture Musical or Comedy reviews have said it was a nice film but also felt more suited to the small screen.
The Artist opened in November 2011 with $204,878 from 4 screens taking $44,671,682
It was a very slow platform release by the Weinstein Company (repeated successfully several years later with Lion) taking 11 weeks to expand to 1,000 screens building on momentum from Golden Globe awards, BAFTA awards and Oscars.
Chaplin opened December 1992 with $84,669 from 5 screens taking $9,493,259
Took the opposite approach opened on platform on Christmas Day and the expanded to over 1,000 screens two weeks later failing to find a wide audience crashing out shortly after despite Oscar nominations.
- Bohemian Rhapsody – 20th Century Fox
Took $2.35m in its ninth week up 19.9% taking $189.2m; 12th biggest film of 2018 between A Star is Born and Aquaman; second biggest 20th Century Fox film of 2018 and their 25th biggest film ever between Ice Age: The Meltdown and The Croods
Weekend box office was up 15% from last weekend taking $17m in its 9th week on release up 58.8% in the UK taking £656,641 and £47,178,811 total (the singalong version will be released in the UK on January 11th already been a huge hit internationally); in comparison The Greatest Showman took was #2 and took £2,000,922 of £33,563,952 in its ninth weekend 71% of £47,280,000;
Has taken $513.3m internationally and $702m worldwide and has become 20th Century Fox’s seventh biggest film globally will shortly overtake X-Men Days Of Future Past.
While Bohemian Rhapsody success wasn’t such a surprise in the UK after the success of The Greatest Showman and the popularity for Queen its global performance has been much more surprising.
Japan down 2% taking $63.9m; Korea down 21% taking $70m (#6 MPA title ever); Holland up 90% taking $14.5m and is the #1 movie of the year; Italy up 11% taking $23.6m; Australia up 61% $30.1m #3 biggest film of the year; Germany up 67% taking $24.1m; France up 55% taking $32.4m and Spain up 27% taking $25.2m.
UK Box Office Predictions
Mary Poppins Returns will hold #1 for a third weekend down 20% to £6m+ taking £34m ahead of opening was comparing Mary Poppins Returns with Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again and Beauty and the Beast.
Now looks more like previous Disney re-imaginations Alice in Wonderland and The Jingle Book taking slightly less than The Greatest Showman and Bohemian Rhapsody (£45m+). But how it holds against The Favourite will show if it has long legs.
Its hard to place The Favourite as it has three days of previews (in the West End had 6 more days of previews opening Boxing Day) but is the film as accessible as Three Billboards, Darkest Hour or The Kings Speech. The film has received very positive reviews and has had strong media coverage and as those three films is the must-see Oscar contender film this year. Yorgos Lanthimos previous films 2017’s The Killing of a Sacred Deer and 2015’s The Lobster also received critical acclaim were too quirky to find mainstream audience; The Killing of a Sacred Deer opened with £286,448 taking £817,756; The Lobster opened with £229,619 taking £1,342,630.
The first two weeks of January as the first two weeks in October have become prime slots to open Oscar contenders; three years ago 20th Century Fox released Birdman on January 1st with £1,524,667 went on to take £5,673,841 and won four Oscars.
Other recent Best Picture Oscar winners that have opened the first two weeks of January recently include Three Billboards (£2,361,782); 12 Years A Slave (£2,511,349); The Kings Speech (£3,523,102); Slumdog Millionaire (£1,827,457); Million Dollar Baby (£803,899).
While last year’s Brit must see Oscar film Darkest Hour opened with £4,058,356
Distributors now either release their Oscar contenders in October/November close to their US openings or hold them back to January/February in the hope they win Golden Globes and then go and get BAFTA and Oscar nominations, but it is always a gamble as it gets very congested from mid-January onwards and often the gamble to hold its release doesn’t play out.
Do believe a film should be given the best release for the film rather than playing the lottery over award recognition as the odds are stacked against most films and just means the marketplace gets cannibalized as it does in the weeks after the London Film Festival (late October to early November) and then late January.
The Favourite has three days of previews while Birdman had only one in 2015 taking £369,157, while Silence in 2017 had five taking £860,457 (55.77% of its £1,542,926 opening weekend) an opening close to Three Billboards (£2,361,782) and The Kings Speech (£3,523,102) is expected
The three days of previews will likely have a similar affect to Welcome to Marwen as Assassin’s Creed in 2017 taking 63.79% of its £5,285,064 opening in its previews not that it’s going to take anywhere nearly as much, but as with Mortal Engines will be DOA before its official opening.
Despite positive reviews and strong world of mouth Bumblebee will still drop over 60% in its second weekend due to its opening inflated by 6 days of previews taking £1.6-1.8m
After Aquaman held strongly over the last two weeks due to Christmas holidays normal service will return with comic-book drop of 40%+ taking £1.4-1.6m
After Bohemian Rhapsody weekend box office increased by almost 60% last weekend could see a minimal drop in its 10th week on release with sing-along screenings which will see its box office top £48m.
On New Year’s Eve Bohemian Rhapsody overtook the box office of The Greatest Showman a year ago few would have possibly believed those two films would have taken close to £100m between them probably slightly less than Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again and Mary Poppins Returns will do together.
But Holmes & Watson and The Grinch will drop heavily.
Opening in UK
- Collette – Lionsgate
Biographical drama starring Keira Knightley, Dominic West, Eleanor Tomlinson, and Denise Gough and directed by Wash Westmoreland; had world premiere at the Sundance Film Festival afterward Bleecker Street acquired US rights and Lionsgate UK
Opened in the US in September receiving positive reviews as with many films tat have had platform release recently had a strong opening on limited release expanding to almost 600 screens in week 4 but failed to find an audience and never expanded further
Colette received its UK premiere at the London Film Festival in October opens on Wednesday January 9th but will likely have similar issues finding an audience in the UK despite the British cast.
- Stan And Ollie – eOne
Biographical comedy-drama starring Steve Coogan and John C. Reilly and directed by Jon S. Baird and written by Jeff Pope (previously wrote Oscar-nominated screenplay Philomena); had world premiere at the London Film Festival in October;
Received positive reviews 93% Rotten Tomatoes score; John C. Reilly has been nominated for Globe Awards Best Actor Motion Picture Musical or Comedy. Reviews have highlighted the performances of the leads but also described it as a small sweet film
The Artist opened in the West End with £48,445 in December 2011 expanded into 106 screens in its second weekend taking £629,495; it slowly expanded to 320 screens after 10 weeks on release taking £9,296,740
Philomena opened in November 2013 with £1,509,726 taking £10,470,225
Chaplin opened in 147 cinemas in January 1993 £334,466 after showing exclusively at Odeon Leicester Square for 4 weeks taking £161,000 over 4 weeks; average ticket price in 1993 104,195 admissions was £3.21 140% less would be the equivalent of £800k today.
Stan & Ollie will perform much stronger than the US but sandwiched between much higher profile award contenders The Favourite and Mary, Queen of Scots will find it hard to match to match the success of either Philomena or The Artist.
- The Front Runner – Sony Pictures
Biographical comedy-drama starring Hugh Jackman, Vera Farmiga, J. K. Simmons, and Alfred Molina and directed by Jason Reitman, based on the 2014 book All the Truth Is Out: The Week Politics Went Tabloid by Matt Bai.
Premiered at the Telluride Film Festival in August receiving mixed reviews, but Hugh Jackman was praised for his performance his first film since starring in The Greatest Showman; received 59% Rotten Tomatoes score
Sony Pictures acquired rights to the film at the Cannes Film Festival and set it for award season release became the first film to open ever on Election Day taking only $6,849 from 4 cinemas becoming DOA before its official Friday opening (problem opening a film midweek) taking $56,000 from its opening weekend.
11 years ago Jason Reitman directed the Oscar wining Juno and followed it up with 2009’s Oscar nominated Up In the Air but his films since Young Adult, Labor Day, Men, Women & Children and Tully all underwhelmed at the box office.
2007’s Juno opened in February 2008 with £2,002,120 taking £9,240,584 winning Best original screenplay Oscar (over the years since has been backlash to the film Lady Bird will likely also get soon).
2009’s Up in the Air (with a breakthrough performance by Anna Kendrick was also nominated for Oscars and received critical acclaim. Opened January 2010 with £1,298,023 taking £5,580,729
2012’s Young Adult received positive reviews opened with £137,736 from 157 screens
2013’s Men Women and Children received poor reviews opened with only £73,182 from 211 screens
2014’s Labor Day received poor reviews opened with £278,726 from 319 screens
2018’s Tully received mixed reviews opened with £138,674 from 200 screens
Could Sony Pictures repeat what they did with Roman J. Israel, Esq. last year after it premiered at the Toronto Film Festival receiving mixed reviews opening with $61,999 from 4 screens taking $11.9m but still managed to get Denzel Washington a Best Actor nomination.
Hugh Jackman was similarly praised for his performance in The Front Runner and the Academy don’t always goon box office when they nominate, Hugh Jackman is liked by the Academy being a former host of the Oscars and was nominated for Best Actor in 2013 for Les Misérables.
- The Upside – STX International
Comedy-drama starring Kevin Hart, Bryan Cranston and Nicole Kidman and directed by Neil Burger a remake of the French 2011 film The Intouchables.
The English-language remake was first announced in July 2011 with many actors rumoured to star including Chris Rock, Idris Elba, Colin Firth and Jessica Chastain and attached to many directors including Paul Feig and Simon Curtis, attached to direct.
Kevin Hart signed in October 2014, Bryan Cranston in March 2016, and Neil Burger in August and started shooting in January 2017; premiered at the 2017 Toronto Film Festival and was originally set for March 2018 release to be distributed by The Weinstein Company its released was after Harvey Weinstein sexual abuse allegations.
In November 2017 The Weinstein Company was facing bankruptcy and sold off rights to its upcoming films including Paddington 2 US rights to Warner Bros. In August 2018 STX Entertainment acquired US and UK rights.
Kevin Hart was becoming a global star after starring in Ride Along, Central Intelligence, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and Night School and in December was signed to be the host for next year’s Oscars. But was forced to quit after backlash to homophobic tweets he made many years earlier, will this affect his acting career, Sony will surely be looking to see if it does as he is due to star in Jumanji sequel set for released in December 2019.
The original Intouchables was released September 2011 with £109,328 from 19 screens
Opening in the US
- A Dog’s Way Home – Sony Pictures
Family drama starring Ashley Judd, Edward James Olmos, Alexandra Shipp, Wes Studi, Chris Bauer, Barry Watson and Jonah Hauer-King and directed by Charles Martin Smith based on book written by W. Bruce Cameron.
Plot about a dog who travelling 400 miles to get back to its owner is similar to 1963’s The Incredible Journey which as remade in 1993 Homeward Bound: The Incredible Journey opened with $8.11m taking $41.82m and its sequel 1996’s Homeward Bound II: Lost in San Francisco opened with $8.6m taking $32.77m.
Family dog films are often successful at the box office most recently 2017’s A Dog’s Purpose opened with $18.22m taking $64.5m the sequel A Dog’s Journey opens in May and will likely get confused with A Dog’s Way Home as both films are based on books by the same author.
Expected to opened with $9m-$16m similar to A Dog’s Purpose
- The Upside – STX
Was expected to take $10-15m in November but will Kevin Hart’s sacking as Oscar host affect its box office?
Since Think Like A Man in 2014 Kevin Hart’s acting career was on the way up starring in The Wedding Ringer, Central Intelligence, Night School and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (with sequel set for release in December against Star Wars IX) and vocally with Captain Underpants and The Secret Life of Pets (sequel also out later this year).
- Replicas – Entertainment Studios
Sci-fi thriller starring Keanu Reeves, Alice Eve, and Thomas Middleditch and directed by Jeffrey Nachmanoff; premiered at the 2018 Night Visions International Film Festival in Finland.
Entertainment Studios acquired the film at the Toronto Film Festival in 2017 for $4m.