- Inception (10th Anniversary) – £207,675 – NE
Inception took £42k from cinemas on Wednesday having the highest gross on a weekday since cinemas reopened on July 4th, the highest single day for a film since cinemas reopened was on Saturday 1st August with Unhinged taking £71k; Inception took £34k on Thursday with £76k total from two days of previews.
There was much media coverage generated about Tenet advance bookings on Wednesday taking 60% on the day but as Inception 10th Anniversary took £42k #1 60% is probably less than £50k when tickets for Tenet average at £12 about 4,000 seats sold?
Had the biggest opening since cinemas reopened in July in the UK but removing preview box office from Wednesday and Thursday this was less than Unhinged opened with £175,263 from 243 screens. Showing that it’s going to take a long time for UK cinemas to get back to pre-lockdown levels.
Even Tenet won’t be the saviour exhibitors hope it to be as while sales have been good at key locations including BFI IMAX but locally the film isn’t selling as strongly, while at the BFI IMAX has sold out one screening at reduced capacity while other Nolan films have done very quickly. As people aren’t so willing to travel into the West End to go to the cinema.
6 weeks ago The Empire Strikes Back re-release opened with £50,406 from 101 screens less than a third of the screens Inception reopened in and didn’t play in IMAX screens as Inception did. Removing the £74k Inception took in previews it took £134k only 166% more, with 210% more screens Inception should have open with far more especially now cinemas have been reopened for 7 weeks now if cinemagoers are really comfortable about going back to the cinema.
What amazes me is exhibitors seem to believe “if you build it he will come” to quote Field of Dreams but there is no evidence to back up their beliefs that a Christopher Nolan film will bring people back to cinemas on mass and that it could actually do more long term damage, despite exhibitors claims cinemas are safe few people believe them.
- Unhinged – £136,346 – £675,916
Up 15.9% in its third weekend; normally these films will have a decent opening weekend and then drop heavily but as Unhinged expanded over the three weeks it has opened as more cinemas have reopened.
UK cinemas have now been open for 7 weeks with box office up 428% from £189,000 to £997,837 but with 638% more screens open than the first weekend (from 460 to 3,393) and with a much wider choice of old and new releases (Unhinged took 14% of the weekend’s box office). Would have expected growth to be much stronger now with the number of screened opened, showing that all the research while cinemas were shut that it will be many months before the majority would return is correct.
This time last year UK box office was over 1600% more taking £17,304,091 with Once Upon A Time In Hollywood #1 taking over 3,500% more (£7,544,445) than Inception (£207,675); The Lion King (£2,486,795); Fast & Furious: Hobbs & Shaw (£1,435,377); Dora & The Lost City Of Gold (£1,165,865); Toy Story 4 (£1,023,453) Inception would have charted in #13 and Unhinged #14.
This shows there is still an exceptionally long way to go and it’s very hard to imagine cinema attendance will grow so dramatically next week when Tenet opens, while there will be a jump from the previous 7 weeks it will still be a long way to levels pre-lockdown and what Tenet was expected to open with 6 months ago.
The issue was all through the pandemic UKCA waited on government guidance before making the decision, but this government have poorly handled Coronavirus from the start locking down too late and then loosening restrictions far too soon. With many expecting a second wave coming in England late September.
Who is the more foolish, the fool or the fool who follows him? As surely more incompetent to be reliant on an incompetent government to make a decision rather than make a decision themselves, while it was completely understandable exhibitors wanted to reopen cinemas as soon as possible. It was important to get cinemagoers supporting that decision, while cinephiles were desperate to return asap the majority have been much slower to return and reopening cinemas too soon was always likely to spook others as they could see the situation with cases not dropping down as fast as other countries that reopened cinemas.
When exhibitors announced social distancing policies it was expected to be at two seat gap either side and in front and behind, which would be the 2m separation, while the social distancing policies UK exhibitors have brought in are only 1m gap, while the government reduced the gap its the same incompetent government who have poorly dealt with crisis from the start as seen also with the recent A levels and GCSE algorithm fiasco, this is another issue as much of the research of box office predictions have been built on algorithms but people won’t respond as they might have done 6 months ago when a new film opens, they won’t immediately think they will risk their lives to see a film they can see in the safety of their home in a few weeks, most people aren’t so desperate to see films in cinemas.
Is it more incompetent to be reliant on an incompetent government to make a decision which has been the case with the UK Cinema Association since March as they waited for governmental advice before closing? Then enforced the minimum required by the government with safety measures with reopening policies even though many businesses are still enforcing the two-metre rule when not wearing masks. The 2m gap can give people a false sense of security similar to wearing masks as it has been reported tiny droplets containing Covid-19 and could remain in the air for a prolonged time. If exhibitors allow masks to be removed in auditoriums for customers to eat and drink then to counterbalance this there needs to be the 2m gap or more is needed, as cinemas don’t have access to fresh air and are dependent on air-conditioning filters to cleanse the air?
Part of the issue is cinemas reopened far too soon, when Boris announced in mid-May that hospitality could reopen July 4th exhibitors immediately announced cinemas would reopen on July 4th as both Tenet and Mulan were still dated for July. Had Warner and Disney delated Tenet and Mulan before UK exhibitors announced the reopening of cinemas as happened in the US exhibitors would have delayed the reopening of cinemas.
When Warner announced they were delaying the release of Tenet which was the same day the cinemas that were opening on July 4th announced their schedules so was too late for them to cancel, but other major exhibitors slowed down the opening of their other cinemas with Vue opening their final cinemas next Wednesday the day Tenet opens.
Over the last few months, all the medical experts have said that going to the cinema when cases are high is a risk not worth taking. But it’s, of course, understandable why exhibitors are desperate to reopen as cinemas are their only source of income the question is why when almost all other studios delayed their films many into next year didn’t Christopher Nolan want Tenet delayed. It is, of course, a choice for people to go to the cinema but it’s not a choice for their employees as if they don’t work they don’t get paid.
While cinemas have been reopened in the UK for 7 weeks the demand hasn’t been there so cinemas could cope with the number of customers but with a film like Tenet if it has sold out screening even with reduced capacity with social distancing still means several hundred people there are potential issues in how staff can keep them distant. In many other hospitality sectors that have been to capacity, there have been outbreaks, what would happen if an outbreak was traced back to a cinema? (There is, of course, the issue if exhibitors are keeping records of all customers attending) If an outbreak has happened in restaurants, pubs and bars then it’s probable that it would also happen in a cinema even with the safety measures exhibitors say are in place. As exhibitors are still reliant on customers to be responsible and think about others health and safety, but many are selfish and rude and had poor hygiene long before lockdown and unlikely to change.
The cinema shutdown gave the cinema industry a one in a lifetime chance to relaunch itself, as I’ve said many times before next year is the 125th anniversary of commercial cinema always thought the reopening of cinema could have been part of an annual celebration of cinema. In 1985 UK Film Year started the renaissance of cinema attendance in the UK, then in 1996 National Cinema Day (all cinemas were £1, similar to AMC’s August 20th all cinemas 14 cents in the US) also helped admissions grow, a similar campaign showing what makes cinema a unique experience that can’t be replicated at home could see admissions top 200m next year many expected would happen 20 years ago.
Unhinged has similarities to Steven Spielberg’s Duel; Joel Schumacher’s Falling Down; Roger Michell’s Changing Lanes (took £2,823,244); John Dah’s Joy Ride (aka Roadkill internationally) written by J. J. Abrams (took £2,215,996).
Solstice Studios originally dated Unhinged in the US in May to open July 1st, its release date was delayed several times to the end of July and the finally to August 21st, but kept its international dates opening in Germany July 16th and then Denmark, New Zealand Singapore, and the UK on July 31st.
More recently Russell Crowe starred in HBO drama The Loudest Voice and 2016’s critical acclaim The Nice Guys which failed to find an audience; (took £3,792,002) which was a sorta sequel to Shane Black’s Kiss Kiss Bang Bang, also received positive reviews but failed to find an audience in cinemas.
- Pinocchio – £108,626 – NE
Matteo Garrone’s Pinocchio received positive reviews but as with all previous versions even the Disney animated film it has a dark edge to the children’s story (even the Disney animated film), the scene where the naughty children turn into donkeys still scares me as it did when I was a child.
There have been many versions of Pinocchio made over the years alongside the classic 1940s animated classic and there are two more film versions upcoming a darker animated film produced by Guillermo del Toro and a reimagination of the Disney animated film with Tom Hanks in talks to star as Geppetto with Robert Zemeckis directing.
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- Onward – £92,092 – £5,965,545
Up 97.7% in the 9th week of its cinema release 24 weeks after opening in cinemas in March is still managing to attract cinemagoers
Onward has taken £673,859 over the last 6 weeks since cinemas reopened on July 4th despite being available on digital download since May and on video since June.
Onward is the 1,011th biggest film in the UK between Green Lantern and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2 (close to Atlantis: The Lost Empire, Isle of Dogs, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs and ParaNorman) and 1,202nd biggest inflation inflated film between Isle of Dogs and Le Man’s 66 (close to Zathura, Isle of Dogs, Ace Ventura: Pet Detective and The Secret Garden).
146th biggest animation film in the UK between ParaNorman and The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie (close to Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs, Spies In Disguise, The Angry Birds Movie 2 and Wonder Park).
Onward is Disney’s lowest-grossing animated film just behind 2001’s Atlantis: The Lost Empire £5.9m and £9.83m inflation inflated).
Onward as most of February and March releases will have a star beside its total box office as it took £5.29m before cinema lockdown opening two weeks before impacted on it is box office. With the Easter holidays two weeks later Onward should have gone on to take more than double its box office even with the competition from Peter Rabbit 2 and Trolls World Tour.
23 Pixar films have taken over £690m at the box office since Toy Story in 1996 and over £890m inflation inflated.
Disney is due to release their 24th Pixar film Soul on November 27th with Luca set for release in 2021, two untitled in 2022 and one untitled In 2023.
- 100% Wolf – £83,937 – £278,213
Up 97.5% in its third weekend after adding more screens from last weekend as even more cinemas opened over the weekend with the remaining major exhibitor’s cinemas opening next week ahead of the release of Tenet, but many independent cinemas won’t reopen until later in the year.
Normally in the summer holidays family films would be hugely popular, but also normal films like 100% Wolf and Dreambuilders would barely enter the top 15 as these inferior animated films would normally end up on Sky Cinema rather than cinemas.
Also released
Elvis: That’s the Way It Is – £94,000
Took £84k on Thursday the highest single day for any film since cinemas reopened on 4th July; Event Cinema screenings do have surcharges on regular ticket prices, but Elvis: That’s The Way It Is surcharges aren’t as much as normal Event Cinema screenings.
It was the biggest opening of a music concert release in the UK
The film was shot in 1970 and was recut in 2001 with concert footage and fewer cutaways to fans making it feel more like Event Cinema; the film was released on DVD in 2014.
The film was screened In cinemas on Thursday with encore screenings on Sunday.
UK box office in detail
This weekend’s top 10 box office took £819,747 up 127.7% from last weekend (£359,962)
The weekend admissions 115,295 up 127.7% from last week (50,628)
Top three took 55.2% (£452,647) of the top 10); Inception (10th Anniversary) 25.3% (£207,675); Unhinged 16.6% (£136,346); Pinocchio 13.2% (£108,626);
2019: (£16,071,095) Once Upon A Time In Hollywood (£7,544,445); The Lion King (£2,486,795); Fast & Furious: Hobbs & Shaw (£1,435,377)
2018: (£15,986,556); Disney’s Christopher Robin (£2,553,810); The Equalizer 2 (£1,980,754); The Festival (£1,423,410); #1 Disney’s Christopher Robin £2,553,810 1st week 649 screens (15.9% of top 10)
2017: (£9,602,351); The Hitman’s Bodyguard (£1,982,951); The Dark Tower (£910,529); Everything, Everything (£453,401); An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (£201,130); #1 The Hitman’s Bodyguard £1,982,951 1st week 467 screens (20.6% of the top 10)
2016: (£13,670,811); Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates (£1,068,522); Pete’s Dragon (£844,090); Nerve (£803,457); The Shallows (£800,963); Wiener-Dog (£86,423); #1 Suicide Squad £4,241,508 2nd week 587 screens 62% drop (31.1% of the top 10)
2015; (£11,265,417); Pixels (£2,660,772); The Man from U.N.C.L.E. (£1,448,298); Trainwreck (£931,981); Absolutely Anything (£487,147); Mistress America (£164,691); Precinct Seven Five (£21,441); #1 Pixels £2,660,772 1st week 511 screens (23.6% of top 10)
2014: (£11,641,259); The Expendables 3 (£1,689,927); Hector and the Search for Happiness (£240,222); The Rover (£73,696); Blood Ties (£20,258); #1 The Inbetweeners 2 £4,309,832 2nd week 509 screens 66% drop (37.1% of top 10)
2013: (£11,919,587); Kick-Ass 2 (£2,482,187); Planes (£1,735,940); 2 Guns (£1,423,738); Bachelorette (£19,396); #1 Kick-Ass 2 £2,482,187 1st week 483 screens (20.8% of top 10)
2012 (£17,483,535); Brave (UK expansion) (£5,269,402); The Bourne Legacy (£4,620,289); The Expendables 2 (£1,985,082); The Wedding Video (£333,079); Take this Waltz (£70,358); #1 Brave £5,269,402 3rd week (1st #1) 553 screens 818% increase (30.1% of top 10)
2011 (£22,058,353); The Inbetweeners Movie (£13,216,736); Cowboys & Aliens (£1,777,320); Spy Kids: All the Time in the World 4D (£703,078); Glee: The 3D Concert Movie (£356,271); The Guard (UK release) (£163,751); #1 The Inbetweeners Movie £13,216,736 1st week 453 (59.9% of top 10)
2010: (£12,550,727); The Last Airbender (£1,653,776); The Sorcerer’s Apprentice (£1,140,532); Tinker Bell and the Great Fairy Rescue (£288,544); The Secret in Their Eyes (£85,467); Black Dynamite (£6,400); #1 Toy Story 3 £4,666,021 4th week 569 screens 32% drop (25.2% of top 10)
2009; (£8,247,544); The Time Traveller’s Wife (£1,410,333); Aliens in the Attic (£1,323,575); Bandslam (£628,957); A Perfect Getaway (£418,703); Imagine That (£109,722); #1 The Time Traveller’s Wife £1,410,333 1st week 425 screens (17.1% of top 10)
2008; (£10,950,396); You Don’t Mess with the Zohan (£1,520,637); Wild Child (£1,177,472); Star Wars: The Clone Wars (£895,300); Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day (£90,878); #1 The Dark Knight £2,302,866 4th week 499 screens (3rd week #1) 44% drop (21.1% of top 10)
2007: (£14,527,913); The Bourne Ultimatum (£6,553,704); Bratz: The Movie (£1,247,588); Eagle vs. Shark (£47,845); #1 The Bourne Ultimatum £6,553,704 1st week 458 screens (45.1% of top 10)
2006; (£6,725,494); Snakes on a Plane (£1,069,608); John Tucker Must Die (£845,633); Harsh Times (£281,609); A Scanner Darkly (£242,990); #1 Snakes on a Plane £1,069,608 1st week 354 screens (15.9% of top 10)
2005 (£8,464,617); The Island (£1,481,647); Crash (£818,604); The Perfect Catch (£272,285); The Bad News Bears (£45,514); #1 Charlie and the Chocolate Factory £2,886,352 3rd week 523 screens 35% drop (34.1% of top 10)
2004 (£9,205,066); The Bourne Supremacy (£2,720,016); Catwoman (£557,583); Yu-Gi-Oh (£112,980); #1 The Bourne Supremacy £2,720,016 1st week 418 screens (29.5% of top 10)
2003 (£10,523,339); American Pie: The Wedding (£4,151,788); Freddy vs. Jason (£785,870); #1 American Pie: The Wedding £4,151,788 1st 426 screens (39.4% of top 10)
2002 (£6,423,296); The Sum Of All Fears (£1,144,501); Spy Kids 2 (£1,069,090); #1 Men In Black 2 £3,106,105 3rd week 489 screens 55% drop (21.8% of top 10)
2001 (£11,086,365); Planet of the Apes (£5,445,983); #1 Planet of the Apes £5,445,983 1st week 446 screens (49.1% of top 10);
Next weekend last year Top three took 56.7% (£4,255,931) of the top 10; Once Upon A Time In Hollywood 24.5% (£1,841,873); The Lion King 16.3% (£1,226,964); Angel Has Fallen 15.8% (£1,187,094);
Other Box Office News
Have been reports that Warner demanded higher box office split than normal with Tenet and so they should as they are taking a massive gamble opening the film now with Coronavirus cases still on an increase in many countries around the world. While exhibitors don’t share the highly profitable concessions and as cinemas have shown by saying masks can be taken off in auditoriums eating and drinking is a necessity.
It was revealed on Sunday when Warner Bros announced advance sales for Tenet would go on sale in the US on Friday, August 21st (same day embargo ends) having three days of previews from August 31st before opening on September 3rd) some of the contract terms Warner Bros have demanded from exhibitors.
The three-days of preview screenings must start no earlier than 5pm with one screening a night but premium format cinemas can have 2.
Movie theatres have to comply with local laws and with safety standards from NATO including wearing a face mask anywhere in a cinema apart from when eating as everyone knows eating in a cinema is far more important than customers health and safety, as exhibitors are in the popcorn and syrup business not the film business and see food as Intrinsically to the cinema experience as they are highly profitable to exhibitors.
“These special terms are being offered to its exhibitor customers specifically for ‘Tenet’ to address the special circumstances in the market… including the high commercial risk from uncertain consumer demand, reopening rules, health and safety regulations, and socially distancing capacity issues.”
“Exhibitor specifically represents and warrants to Warner that it shall comply at all times with all applicable laws and regulations at its theatre(s), including without limitation, all laws, orders and standards relating public health and safety, such as rules and protective measures against the contraction and spread of COVID-19 or other illnesses and applicable voluntary health and safety measures and protocols regarding these matters as may be promulgated by the exhibition industry, such as NATO’s published health and safety protocols.”
Warner Bros have demanded 63% share of the box office and that Tenet must have the largest non-IMAX screen each week until otherwise agreed; Single screens – 4 weeks, with a third-weekend holdover figure determinant in place; Twins – 5+ weeks; 3 to 8 screens – 8 weeks; 9+ screens – 12 weeks
This would mean Tenet would play in the main screen of cinemas until Wonder Woman opens on October 2nd and give Disney/Warner problems with The King’s Man due to open September 18th.
Warner also requires maximum theatre marketing directed to publicizing Tenet at no extra cost to the studio and that three trailers for upcoming Warner Bros. films before Tenet, Warner also plans film rental collection in a shorter time frame, and ties collection to digital print access and won’t let exhibitors use Tenet to pay other bills.
These are terms only Disney can demand with Star Wars and Marvel films and would never possibly be able to demand in normal circumstances but are able to as exhibitors are so desperate for the film despite Tenet likely to take a quarter of what those films took and far less than other Christopher Nolan films have taken. So exhibitors might not be so happy in a few weeks’ time when Tenet isn’t the massive film they expect, and it won’t be the saviour of cinemas as they have hoped it would be ever since March.
Warner has demanded similar strict terms from critics who have will attend screenings of Tenet that they can’t even tell anyone they have seen the film before embargo ends on Friday.
Warner should have made one of the requirements to exhibitors to be able to play Tenet should have been it will only be booked in movie theatres that have MERV-13 filters? (similar to Universal’s demand in 1993 to have to fit DTS to play Jurassic Park and thousands of movie theatres did).
Exhibitors and studios should have been working together even before lockdown looking into ways of how to deal with Coronavirus as they would have seen how China shut down cinemas in January right before the most lucrative time of the year. Instead, it feels like they have always been playing catchup as they always seem to do, rather than just doing the minimum required exhibitors should be doing much more and this would have seen people come back to the cinema sooner.
In the months leading up to the reopening of cinemas, there were many ideas mentioned in articles including customers having to register to book, all bookings should be online, so exhibitors have contact details if they need to track and trace. While the whole mask policy with them saying eating and drinking is a necessity shows that exhibitors aren’t in the cinema business they are in the syrup and popcorn business.
Exhibitors made a big deal about their enhanced safety measures but the majority of which should have been standard before Coronavirus. One of the things they have made a big deal about is their enhanced cleaning, but in Odeon cinemas in Scotland, they have been cutting back from the daily cleaning by professional cleaners to three times a week with cinema staff forced to take up the slack to be done with their other duties. The cinema staff weren’t given any training, this is similar to when Odeon and Cineworld cinemas reopened many went to social media to say they weren’t given any additional training for the extra duties they were given.
NATO announced Proposed Health & Safety Guidelines they include enforcing masks at all times with exceptions only for eating and drinking, denying entry to those who refuse; daily symptom and/or temperature checks for employees; disinfecting auditoriums between screenings; staggered screening times, to avoid crowds; and publicising the rules via signage, social media, and onscreen announcements but NATO has no power to enforce it, it’s all down to exhibitors and their staff to do so and as staffing is stretched at the moment will they do all that is required.
Only need to look back at what happened in several cinemas in November with Blue Story with fights breaking out as people who brought tickets for Frozen 2 then sneaked into sold-out screenings of Blue Story to see that cinema staff will struggle to control cinemagoers on mass.
Advance bookings for Tenet went on sale last Wednesday but while Nolan’s disciples flocked to book seats at BFI IMAX as they have always done, in 2012 The Dark Knight Rises took over £1 million in advance bookings at BFI IMAX in 5 weeks before opening selling 62,300 sales (£16 average today tickets for Tenet are £23.75).
This beat the previous advance sales record at the BFI IMAX by James Cameron’s Avatar in December 2009 sold 47,000 tickets, grossing £607,000 (£12.90 average).
Forty-three shows ahead of opening were sold out for The Dark Knight Rises including early morning screenings at 04.25 and 04.55; the film broke BFI IMAX records for highest first-day sales (24,754 tickets taking £409,838) and the highest first-week sales (38,658 tickets, taking £634,013) breaking the records previously set earlier in 2012 by Ridley Scott’s Prometheus.
One screening of Tenet is currently sold out at the BFI IMAX, while most cinemas have a two-seat gap each side BFI IMAX only has one seat and has other cinemagoers sitting immediately in front and behind, while exhibitors will say this is to government guidelines, it is the minimum required, in an auditorium of up to 300 people the distance between others should be more than the minimum especially as they will be seated for almost 4 hours watching Tenet while they are able to eat and drink as normal. Cinemagoers will nervously react to every cough and sneeze.
Why again surprised if they are allowed to eat and drink as normal the very least they could do is mandatory temperature checks for customers as exhibitors do daily for staff.
AMC Theatres they would start to reopen their US movie theatres on August 20th and to commemorate AMC’s 100th anniversary their movie theatres will be only 15 cents on Thursday. This is just a gimmick but the majority of cinemas who are currently nervous to go back to the cinema now need more than one-day specials. As cinemas have always gone for gimmicks that give short-term success but need long-term policy changes to get people back into the cinemagoing habit. Since the 50s exhibitors have gone for gimmicks like 3D and smell-o-vision and more recently with again 3D, ScreenX and 4DX.
Exhibitors have talked much about their social distancing policies but then you can when you can book seats in front and behind complete strangers, with only one seat gap between cinemagoers on the sides while MERV 13 filters aren’t installed in all cinemas (In June New York Gov Andrew Cuomo said MERV-13 filters were mandatory for movie theatres in New York) and concessions are sold as masks can be removed as exhibitors seem to believe eating and drinking in cinemas is a necessity.
AMC will open every single cinema in Texas, Georgia, Illinois despite being the 3rd, 5th, and 6th highest daily COVID in the US and in Florida they are reopening 30 of 37 cinemas despite being the second-highest state with over 6,000 cases daily. In comparison, New York has dropped to about 500 but have no plans at the moment to reopen cinemas in the state.
In April there was an in-depth Deadline article about how theatre chains will try to restore customer confidence saying that there would be a need to change the way people going to the cinema to deal with social distancing and avoid physical contact with others as an outbreak traced back to a cinema could be game over for cinema. (as has been the case with outbreaks traced back to bars and restaurants).
It said that exhibitors were re-evaluating all aspects of the cinema experience, it would begin with a chessboard seating chart with gaps either side of cinemagoers and in front and behind. At the time there was a 6ft gap for social distancing which would mean two-seat gap around each block of seats sold (this has been reduced to one seat one the sides and no gap from and back).
AMC Theatres announced on Monday that they will update their booking software to make sure customers are social distancing but surely this should have been in place before AMC started selling tickets as exhibitors have had months to prepare for cinema reopening. There should have been standard safety measures rolled out by the likes of NATO and UK Cinema Association for all cinemas instead it feels like it’s the blind leading the blind and they are making it up as they go along, as it has been with AMC changing policies after there is a media backlash. Exhibitors should be proactive, not reactive before cinemas closed UK Cinema Association said they were waiting on government guidance, but this government has handled Coronavirus very poorly.
A lot was spoken of the enhanced cleaning but long before cinemas shut cinemas have had hygiene issues, as the problem you have in a public venue is people don’t all share the same hygiene levels, was a survey pre-lockdown that 70% of people didn’t wash their hands in a public toilet, they then touch many surfaces putting at risk everyone who touches them after. Exhibitors needed to visually show their cleaning measures disinfecting seats, armrests, railings, doors, and toilets regularly throughout the day.
It was expected that customers would have to buy their tickets online through exhibitors loyalty schemes so they have contact details for cinemagoers, but people will still be able to buy tickets in cinemas, so the question is how cinemas re keeping records for track and trace?
In April AMC Adam Aron said the chain was “pricing out temperature-reading machines.” While exhibitors will check staff temperatures daily they won’t check the temperatures of customers> It’s crazy that I had my temperature checked before I went into the hairdressers also wearing a mask, but people can go into a cinema mixing with complete strangers for up to 3 hours without temperature checks. This does put cinema staff at risk as staff in restaurants having to interact very closely with people that could be infected or asymptomatic having no symptoms themselves but being able to infect others.
An exhibitor said about checking customers temperatures “I find it invasive, especially with everything we’re doing with social distancing.” But exhibitors aren’t doing enough over social distancing and the two should be working together alongside face masks. Exhibitor said “You don’t want to attract people to movie theatres by making it look like a hospital,” but you don’t also attract people in the middle of a pandemic without safety measures being visible, while the cinephiles will rush back to the cinema, cinema should be for the many, not the few and the many want the extra checks in place.
The idea in April was to implement the same safety measures in all cinemas across the world but all exhibitors and all countries have different policies some stricter than others, with China having temperature checks, masks are worn, seat separation by 2 all around and no food being sold but then most others have far less. They spoke of the social distancing technology being in a place so then it was always going to be their policy that there wasn’t to be any gap in front or back of many cinemas.
While exhibitors say there is a 1m gap between rows and that is what governments demand the difference is that your in that seat for up to 3 hours while in a pub, café or restaurant you can move around and there is likely to be a source of fresh air, while in a cinema you are depended on if the air conditioning filter is up to standard and regularly maintained. The AMC advert showing their safety measures says cinemas have MERV-13 filters, but in small writing it says were possible, customers should be able to know which cinemas have the filters installed so they can make the choice themselves if they want to take the risk going to a cinema without a filter that removes COVID from the air.
In a recent interview with Variety Adam Aron predictably said AMC’s new safety and cleaning procedures will be expensive and that the costs will be “passed on to the consumers.” Which will be either higher ticket prices or concessions in similar way ticket prices previously increased with the conversion from film to digital and the recent unnecessary installation of recliners.
Christopher Nolan wants to be the saviour of cinema, but the way Tenet is being released globally is the worst possible way as with the press, Australia, Sweden and France seeing it from August 21st and then 60+ territories from August 26th and then selected states in the US (not New York, Los Angeles, Florida and many others) and China from September 3rd. As spoilers will be online from August 21st when the embargo ends.
The other major issue is piracy as the film opens in many Asian countries ahead of the US on August 26th and the majority of piracy is now generated there so there will be many illegal streams online before it opens in the US. This is also likely to happen with Mulan as it opens in China a week before being released on Disney+.
On Monday New York Gov Andrew Cuomo said opening movie theatres is far riskier than other businesses after he announced gyms and museums could reopen with social distancing and reduced capacity next week only if MERV-13 filters were fitted in air-conditioning and they were inspected before opening. Gov Andrew Cuomo previously said in June movie theatres could reopen if they have MERV-13 filters installed the problem is not all theatres have them fitted.
Cuomo said, “I am sure there is a whole group people who say, ‘I cannot live without going to the movies.’ But on a relative risk scale, a movie theatres is less essential and poses a high risk. It is a congregant. It is one ventilation system. You are seated there for a long period of time,”… “Even if you are at 50% capacity with one or two seats between the two of you, this is a risk situation and … movie theatres are not that high on the list of essentials.”
Cuomo’s comments are similar to what many medical experts have said for the last few months, including one doctor saying “I’m a huge fan of movies. I really enjoy them. They’re a great way to have some fun and escape from the world—which we need, especially right now. But going to see a movie in an indoor movie theatre, it’s just about the last thing I would do right now. From what we understand, the virus is transmitted through aerosolized droplets that come out of our mouths, oftentimes when we talk or when we laugh or when we sing. And so, being in a room for two hours with a bunch of folks who are laughing at a movie, and where the air is not being circulated in an efficient way, and where you don’t know who has been in there before you, that’s really hazardous exposure. I just don’t think it’s worth it.”
Who do you believe an exhibitor desperate for cash or a doctor who doesn’t gain either way?
While cinema seems huge to those that work within in and go to the cinema it is still only a small cog in the US economy, last year Movie Theatres added about 10% ($11.3bn BO and similar amount concessions) to the $21.44 trillion US economy and while the risk might be similar to hospitality but is worth over 3000% more ($660bn) than cinema employing far more people.
The fear is an outbreak in a cinema in one of the states that have allowed movie theatre to reopen like Florida as there are major issues over if exhibitors keep proper records for track and trace. I know I might be fear-mongering, but you get 300+ people in a movie theatre and don’t get temperatures checked and they could be asymptomatic without knowing and being in a movie theatre for almost 3 hours breathing the same air-condition air it’s a risk to me not worth having.
Last month exhibitors including AMC, Cinemark and Regal announced they were going to sue New Jersey for bot allowing them to reopen movie theatres claiming a First Amendment right to reopen during the pandemic. This claim was rejected by the judge this week saying that closing movie theatres didn’t infringe on their First Amendment rights, saying “In closing indoor movie theatres operations,
Defendants are promoting the significant governmental interest of protecting public health by keeping closed areas that present heightened risks for COVID-19 transmission,” “By closing only indoor movie theatres, Defendants are leaving open ‘ample alternative methods of communication’ in the form of outdoor movie theatres, and at-home streaming options,” With the judge denying movie theatres it’s unlikely New York and California movie theatre will reopen anytime soon, despite cases in New York much lower than many states that are reopening movie theatres this week.
Last week Morning Consult ran another survey ad the results were as they have been for the last few months 74% of U.S. adults said they are unlikely to go to a movie theatre in the next month and 54% said that studios should hold off on new releases until sometime in 2021.
All the research since April has said it will take months for the majority to return to the cinema with only 18% willing to go back immediately..
Another recent survey said while audiences would prefer to see Tenet and Wonder Woman 1984 in the cinema but they would also be fine seeing them at home on PVOD; interestingly the percentage of people choosing to watch a film in cinemas if VOD window was immediate or 90 days is similar, so there is a demographic who will always opt to see new films in cinemas first.
While the shortening of the window will likely attract people to see the films earlier, so exhibitors shouldn’t fear PVOD but as Netflix see it as another way to see films and would probably do so if studios share revenue which is part of the AMC/Universal Pictures PVOD deal. The biggest loses will be piracy as with as films like Tenet and Mulan opening internationally early in Asia before the US both films will be widely available illegally before they are legally available in theatres and Disney+.
16% said they only want to see Tenet” in cinemas; 54%, said would prefer to see in theatres but are also ok to see it at home. While No Time to Die and Top Gun: Maverick would prefer to see in cinemas but that is probably because by November most hope the pandemic will be over and things will go back to normal and people will be going back to the cinema as they did before lockdown.
As I expected before lockdown the one type of cinema there is much more interest in now is drive-ins; 42% said are extremely interested in going to a drive-in and 31% said were somewhat interested.
It was surprising to see Warner Bros have delated the release of Bill & Ted Face the Music after Orion Pictures announced the film would be released in cinemas and on PVOD from August 28th, While the previous films were successful on the video they weren’t as successful in cinemas and the film will have limited appeal in cinemas.
UK Box Office Top 10
UK Box Office Predictions
Last week Warner Bros are re-released Christopher Nolan’s Inception to celebrate the films 10th anniversary, it included a 10-minute preview of Tenet and a 4-minute interview with Christopher Nolan, in which hopefully he said why it was so important to open Tenet now and not in a few months time.
Inception opened in July 2010 with £5,912,814 taking £34,976,999, 6 months ago Tenet would have expected to open with a similar amount and take £40m+ and be one of the biggest films of the year.
Warner had originally dated the re-release of Inception in mid-July when Tenet had moved from July to early August but then moved Inception to August 12th.
Advance bookings for Tenet opened last week, there was an immediate rush to book from Nolanites but sales were much softer than other Christopher Nolan films
With previous Christopher Nolan films Including Inception, The Dark Knight Rises and interstellar the BFI IMAX was quick to sell out the majority of their screenings over opening weekends. The question is will Tenet with its limited capacity, as the issue many people have is more about using public transport to get to the venues and most would use the tube to get to BFI IMAX.
Last Thursday Vue Cinemas announced that 60% of tickets sold were for Tenet which sounds a lot but as daily box office is only 5% of what it normally is this time of year (£1m+) 60% is probably about £30k of a (daily box office of about £50k) with mostly IMAX screens like BFI IMAX and Cineworld Leicester Square IMAX being the best selling with tickets of ove3 £20 that’s less than 2,000 seats sold; ticket sales haven’t been as strong in local cinemas as the Nolanites are the one’s that have rushed to book everyone else will wait.
The rest of the industry will be watching very carefully as the rest of the years high profile releases depend on it being a success, but the question will be what will be a success to exhibitors and Warner Bros. Unhinged opened with £175k two weeks ago and 6 months ago exhibitors and Warner would have expected to open with up to £10m but now probably less than a quarter.
I’ve always thought the reason why Nolan is so desperate for Tenet to open now is that he has ordered millions of Tenet promotional oxygen masks that he wouldn’t be able to sell next year and they were so you can experience the film as the protagonists are and not buy eating popcorn or smelly food.
Advance bookings for Tenet opened on August 12th with the limited competition it will play in multiple screens in most cinemas across the country, but will audiences come as all the research has shown for months it will take many months for the majority to feel safe going back to the cinema again. A survey last week for Kantar repeated this with only 13% of the key 16-34 happy to go to the cinema at the current time.
Also being re-released is The Fast and the Furious, Universal Pictures had planned to release F9 in May this year, but they delayed it to April 2021, as they did many other films in March.
More cinemas will be reopening this week with the remainder opening on August 26th for Tenet.
Christopher Nolan’s 12 films have generated over $2bn in the US and $2.72bn internationally, $4.72bn worldwide, the majority of which for Warner Bros where he has been based since 2002. (Warner Bros released Insomnia in the US with Disney international). After the success of Insomnia, Christopher Nolan approached Warner about rebooting Batman, which became The Dark Knight Trilogy taking almost $2.5bn worldwide. Nolan has also been key to the DC Universe producing Man of Steel and Batman Vs Superman.
Warner Bros decision to open Tenet August 26th internationally in about 70 territories and then the US the week later it is now all on exhibitors to prove to the studio they have made the right decision ad do all they can to prove to the majority of cinemagoers that cinema is safe.
In normal circumstances end of August releases rarely have big openings, only a handful of films have taken £2m+ over the weekend the last was 2015’s Straight Outta Compton (£2,498,231) with 2013’s One Direction: This Is Us (£3,471,872) and 2009’s The Final Destination (£3,633,395) having the biggest ever late August openings.
6 months ago most would have expected Tenet to open between 2010’s Inception (£5,912,814) and 2017’s Dunkirk (£10,023,720) taking between £40m and £50m being one of the biggest films of the year, but opening August 26th it will open with less than a third and taking far less to taking between £1.5m-£2m over its 5 day opening weekend, IMAX cinemas will be the most popular and they will help boost box office with tickets close to £20.
Seth Rogen said in an interview on the same day Warner Bros announced they were delaying the release of Tenet for the third time “I’m waiting to see what Chris Nolan does,”… ” ‘WWCND’ is basically what we’re saying at all times. ‘What would Chris Nolan do?’ For a while, it seemed like the answer was to kill his greatest fans. But that’s not the answer of today, it seems, so that’s good. But we have no idea. We don’t want to be the first to rush into anything.”
The BBFC cut 9 seconds from Tenet to give it a 12A certificate to avoid the film getting a 15 but the target demographic will be over 15.