Top 5 Breakdown

1. The Nun  –  £4,098,198 – NE  

Had the biggest opening day for The Conjuring universe film in the UK taking £663,520 on Thursday and £1.78m over its first two days despite mixed reviews, but as with many horrors cinemagoers often ignore reviews for horror films; took over 50% of the top 5;

Had the 16^th biggest opening of the year between Rampage and The Meg (interestingly Warner Bros main releases this year have all opened with similar box office Ready Player One, Ocean’s Eight, Rampage, The Nun, The Meg and Tomb Raider and would expect Crazy Rich Asians, A Star is Born and Aquaman to open with similar box office between £2.5m and £5.11m)

Had the 108^th biggest opening in the UK between Rampage and The Great Gatsby and 432^nd biggest inflation inflated opening between Rampage and The Nun and Warner Bros third biggest opening of the year behind Ready Player One and Ocean’s Eight (7-day opening)

Opened bigger than the original Conjuring and the two spinoffs but not The Conjuring 2 as it had a seven-day opening.

The Conjuring opened August 2013 with £2,156,124 taking £9.5m

Annabelle opened October 2014 with £1,939,963 taking £7.4m

The Conjuring 2 opened June 2016 with £4,637,862  (£1,855,835 from previews Mon-Thurs taking £10,896,992

Annabelle: Creation opened August 2017 with £1,960,203 taking £8.28m

The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Case was 257^th biggest opening between The Wolf of Wall Street and Transformers: The Last Knight; The Conjuring 607^th biggest between Get Out and The Post; Annabelle: Creation was 677^th biggest opening between S.W.A.T. and Bad Teacher; Annabelle was 687^th between Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa and Fred Claus;

Untitled Conjuring spinoff will be released next summer, with The Conjuring 3 expected for release in 2020 and the second sequel to Annabelle will follow.

In 2017 Gerald Brittle writer of The Demonologist about the Warrens filed a $900 million lawsuit against Warner Bros, New Line Cinema and James Wan claiming he had exclusive rights to the Warrens’ story and it was illegally stolen by the studio, it was scheduled to go to trial in April 208, Warner Bros needed to prove ghosts exist and weren’t based on his  book but were based on “historical facts.” Sadly, the case never went to trial and Warner Bros settled in December 2017.

2. Christopher Robin – £883,916  – £12,369,115  

Down 24.66% in its fourth weekend; on Sunday Disney estimated a 23% but Universal Pictures still were predicting BlacKKKlansman was #2 even though those numbers didn’t add up as 23% drop for Christopher Robin was £903,390 while BlacKKKlansman estimated £810,000; Monday’s estimates Christopher Robin £880,000 and BlacKKKlansman was £788,154.

While distributors often overestimate films battling out for #1 it’s rarer that they would do the same for lower charting films; this could just be exchange rates conversions as Sunday estimates are in dollars and estimate conversions are often higher than Monday estimates.

Disney now has a third of the top 20 films of 2018 with seven films showing their dominance of the box office which of course is only going to be stronger next year when they incorporate 20^th Century Fox within the studio; Disney-Fox would have taken a combined £350m in 2018 having half of the top 20 biggest films in the UK in 2018;

The 111 biggest 2018 film releases tracked have taken £830m Disney-Fox combined has taken 43%; Disney and 20^th Century release another 10 films between them before the end of the year which will take over £150m combined which will see two studios share £500m+ of the year’s box office.

Finding Neverland (also directed by Marc Forster) dropped 18% in its fourth weekend £189,631 in October 2004 taking £3,103,735 with total of £3,306,342 while similarly themed Saving Mr Banks dropped 42% in its fourth weekend in December2013 £206,965 and £3,342,871 taking £4,347,734; while its unofficial prequel Goodbye Christopher Robin dropped 44% in its fourth weekend £115,143 and £2,593,002 and £2,866,637 total.

 

3. BlacKKKlansman – £792,646 – £4,532,092

Down 14.1% in its third weekend adding over 90 screens to 477 screens; Universal Pictures overestimate its box office by about £40,000 saw BlacKKKlansman hold in third which of course is a strong hold for the film as it became Spike Lee’s second biggest film in the UK after 2006’s inside Man which took £8.3m but was much more commercial film.

Showing its latest expansion wasn’t needed as again distributors over saturate most films  now for a film like BlacKKKlansman they would normally have a long-playing time but no that its playing in almost 500 screens as with its US release it will have a much faster playout.

All films now open far too wide while for a film like The Nun that is done because it will have a short theatrical release opening big and drop big, but for BlacKKKlansman majority of its audience will come from word of mouth so needs a longer playing time for people to seek it out. The problem with BlacKKKlansman going so wide will see it loose screens next weekend with the three wide releases.

The question I always ask is it exhibitors wanting the film to play on more screens or a fear by distributors that they need to go as wide as possible as quickly as possible even with a film like BlacKKKlansman as there are many new releases opening over the next few weeks. As 10/20 years ago these films would open on a platform release and never play beyond more than 300 screens and they would play for several months often up to their home entertainment release.

For a film like BlacKKKlansman is seen as a potential award contender 10/20 years ago would see it still playing in cinemas in October but now it’s unlikely to be on a wide release by the end of the month. The issue has with exhibitors is they want the cake and eat it too when they won’t budge from the 17 weeks theatrical window but when films open so wide they will rarely play now for the whole period The Greatest Showman being the notable exception being on almost 300 screens in its 16^th week on release, few films over the last 20 years have played in over 300 cinemas for all of their 16 weeks.

4. Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! – £726,771   – £63,232,313  

Down 21% in its eighth weekend after holding second in the second for six weeks will likely drop out of the top 5; next weekend with The Predator, Crazy Rich Asians and King of Thieves opening.

Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! will this week overtake Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone to become the 14^th biggest film in the UK but has still taken £6m less than Mamma Mia!

Avatar, Titanic, The Greatest Showman, Mamma Mia!, Paddington, Skyfall, Chicago and Star Wars: The Force Awakens all took more than Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! in its eighth weekend, but only Skyfall and Star Wars: The Force Awakens opened with more than Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! Instead, it’s holding similar to Black Panther eighth weekend which took £684,430 adding £1.2m in the weeks after, Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! will have a boost with sing-along screenings in the weeks ahead.

Despite opening with more than a third more and with 60% higher ticket prices despite this the industry is celebrating its success; inflation inflated its 46^th between Love Actually and Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason while Mamma Mia! is 11^th with £104,680,212 one of 14 films inflation inflated box office totals over £100m with only two Skyfall and Star Wars: The Force Awakens that took £100m+ on release.

Universal Pictures will be hoping the sing-along version will get its box office total closer to Mamma Mia! with its DVD release delayed a month from the US despite the film opening same day in both countries.  But Mamma Mia! £69,166,087 while likely be a step too far for it, but Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again will overtake Jurassic World (£64,322,933) over the next few weeks to become Universal Pictures second biggest film in the UK.

Universal Pictures released 19 films so far in 2018 taking £183m which sees them second after Disney with eight remaining films for 2018 including Night School, Johnny English 3, First Man, Halloween, The Grinch and Mortal Engines they will like take £100m+ which will see them battling out for #2 studio with Warner Bros this year. This battle is likely to continue for many years to come with Disney taking more than the two studios combined when they incorporated 20^th Century Fox within the studio next year.

Universal Pictures has another strong slate next year including their first Dreamworks Animation film How to Train Your Dragon 3 and The Secret Life of Pets 2 and the long in development Cats. But, will be missing the £100m+ Bond 25 which as due for release October before Danny Boyle dropped out from directing, they do still have his untitled musical and Downtown Abbey.

After eight weeks Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again has likely taken about 96% of its final box office similar to Star Wars: The Force Awakens 98.12%; Black Panther 97.78%, Spectre 97.49%; Skyfall 95.21%; Moulin Rouge 91.34% and Paddington 90.1% but far from

But far from leggy films Mamma Mia! 84.69%; Avatar 76.98%; Titanic 73.32%; The Greatest Showman 71.1%; Chicago 68.52% has a better hold than The Greatest Showman due to it having three weeks of platform release before going wide in its fourth weekend.

It was announced last week Marvel Cinematic Universe Black Panther, Avengers: Infinity War and Ant and the Wasp had taken over $4bn worldwide but they were all sure things. This year has been the year of musicals starting with the huge success of The Greatest Showman (on 2018 box office alone would still be one of the 10 biggest films of 2018) after its success might have expected Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again to perform far better than it did but while audience reaction was strong it wasn’t anywhere nearly as good as The Greatest Showman.

For the last few months leading up to the world premiere at Venice Film Festival, A Star Is Born has generated huge buzz since critical acclaim ahead of its release next month. Then the small matter of Mary Poppins Return for Christmas the big question is can it possibly match up to the original? but Disney is masters of repackaging old films into new films audiences are happy to see again as with Star Wars: The Force Awakens and all of their Disney animation reimaginations.

Musicals as rom-coms were mainstays of cinema for decades but over the last twenty years have been more misses than hits, 17 years ago 20^th Century Fox released Moulin Rouge which was a moderate success in the US but opened in the UK September 7^th, 2001 with £2,403,378 (In 2018 would be £4,568,740) and took £17,934,410 (£34,092,707 today) and the 10^th biggest film of the year strangely as The Greatest Showman is currently in 2018.

Two years later Chicago opened taking £16,111,718. Over the following years Dreamgirls, High School Musical 3: Senior Year, Hairspray, Enchanted, The Muppets, Les Miserables and La La Land followed but were also disappointments including Jersey Boys, The Producers, Burlesque, Rent, Rock of Ages and Across the Universe. The question is as with the success of Crazy Rich Asians will studios risk making more musicals  and rom-coms again as they are what audiences like to see or will they e more of the reimaginations,

Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again was in the top two for seven weeks while Mamma Mia! was in the top three for 11 weeks until the end of September until Taken, Righteous Kill and Death Race opened; taking over £1m at the box office for 10 weekends and staying in the top 5 for 13 weeks (#13 £479,057) and in the top 10 for 17 weeks (#17 £142,664); Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again took £1m+ for six weeks and could drop out of the top five this weekend,

In comparison The Greatest Showman was in the top three for two weeks became #1 in its sixth weekend taking £2,201,523 up 8% and £23,226,869; in the top five for 12 weeks (#12 £753,420) and in top 10 for 17 weeks (#17 £300,947) only dropping out of the charts because of four new releases and the film released on DVD. 

Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again added $5,9m internationally has taken $257.3m internationally and $376.4m worldwide #298 biggest film globally still almost $70m less than The Greatest Showman still $233m less than Mamma Mia! took 10 years ago so how can the sequel possibly be seen as the success many have called it. While the sequel might have overtaken totals of the original film so it should have done with a 10-year gap and ticket inflation.

The film’s soundtrack dropped down #2 last week with Eminem Kamikaze #1 and The Greatest Showman soundtrack is #3 being in top 5 for 37 weeks.  

5. The Meg – £612,133  – £15,075,792

Down 30.5% in its fifth weekend; as with BlacKkKlansman and Christopher Robin closely fought battle for #2 which switched places rom Sunday estimates to Monday final figures, the same was case for Incredibles 2 and The Meg; Monday estimates Incredibles 2 £610,000 and The Meg £608,000 but they switched places with The Meg taking £4,000 more but Incredibles 2 taking £2,000 less.

For the first four weeks of The Meg was holding similar to inflation inflated total of 1999’s Deep Blue Sea which took £8,087,585 would be £15,118,597 today.

The Meg has become Warner Bros second biggest film of the year and should overtake  Ready Player One to be their biggest film until Fantastic Beasts 2 opens in November; The Meg is the 17^th biggest film of the year having overtaken Three Billboards Outside and will shortly overtake Ant-Man and the Wasp. (if including Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and The Greatest Showman 2018 box office would be 19^th)

Despite the average reviews has held far stronger than many bigger films currently taking 4.13x opening more than Mission impossible Fallout and Jurassic World 2 and similar to Deadpool 2 which had a similar strong fanbase, but reviews were more mixed.

With many using 10% of US box office as the benchmark for a film’s performance in the UK The Meg has performed slightly better and similar to Mission impossible Fallout and Ready Player One performing stronger than the US; regular megamovies Avengers; Infinity War, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom and Deadpool 2 take closer to 10%.

Warner Bros has released 14 films so far in 2018 taking £69.34m and have six remaining films for the year Crazy Rich Asians, A Star Is Born, Smallfoot, Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them 2, Creed 2 and Aquaman could add over £120m

Which would see them third behind Disney £330m, Universal Pictures £280m and Warner Bros £210m with Sony £180m, 20^th Century Fox £140m, Paramount Pictures £90m.  

UK box office in detail

This weekend’s top 10 box office took £9,372,532 up 18.98% from last weekend £7,876,858

The weekend admissions 1,190,919 up 18.98% from last weekend 1,000,871; 2018 average ticket up 3.87% from last year’s £7.49 to £7.87 for 2018 according to six-month box office results.

18 films opened at weekend taking £5,191,634; The Nun 78.9% (£4,098,198); remaining 17 films shared 21.06% (£1,093,436): The Nun took 43.7% of the top 10

The weekend was down 33.03% from 2017 (£13,995,695): It £10,002,443; Wind River £437,899; Poster Boys £24,964;

Up 26.29% from 2016: (£7,420,952): Ben-Hur £1,047,800; Don’t Breathe £1,028,938; Kubo and the Two Strings £844,027; Hell or High Water £552,230; Captain Fantastic £280,614; Anthropoid £227,591;

Up 73.02% from 2015; (£5,392,011); No Escape £637,630; Me and Earl and the Dying Girl £431,726; The Transporter Refuelled £352,278; American Ultra £347,401; Ricki and the Flash £220,032; Dope £39,787

Up 37.65% from 2014: (£6,808,576); Sex Tape £1,431,058; Before I Go to Sleep £790,271; The Hundred-foot Journey £694,875; The Guest £313,003; They Came Together £21,951; Island of Lemurs: Madagascar £3,341

Up 18.02% from 2013: (£7,942,235); About Time £1,761,079; Riddick £1,415,141;

Up 51.24% from 2012 (£6,196,846); Dredd £1,049,345; Lawless £973,234; Anna Karenina £875,702; That’s My Boy £254,621;

Up 8.74% from 2011 (£8,618,765): Friends with Benefits £1,947,272; Jane Eyre £1,012,111; Colombiana £424,049; Troll Hunter £200,607;

Up 41.81% from 2010: (£6,609,071): Resident Evil: Afterlife £1,690,655; Tamara Drewe £615,553; Going the Distance £436,361; Cyrus £429,687; The Runaways £59,443

Up 7.67% from 2009 (£8,704,321); District 9 £2,288,378; 500 Days of Summer £1,242,631;

Up 4.95% from 2008 (£8,929,646); Rocknrolla £1,565,439; The Duchess £1,402,200; Disaster Movie £925,655; Bangkok Dangerous £307,420;

Up 33.82% from 2007 (£7,003,476); Run, Fat Boy, Run £2,010,250; Atonement £1,634,065; Rise of the Footsoldier £85,903;

Up 144.74% from 2006; (£3,829,476); Right at your Door £441,548; Little Miss Sunshine £349,810; Pulse £210,409; Beerfest £208,782

Up 68.74% from 2005 (£5,554,112); The Longest Yard £1,255,334; Cinderella Man £614,346; Green Street £446,369; The Man £329,233;

Up 33.91% from 2004 (£6,998,915): Open Water £1,970,176; Anchor Man £555,864; Wicker Park £316,722; Super-Size Me £264,843;

Up 78.94% from 2003 (£5,237,796); Blackball £376,233; Camp £245,183; Calender Girls £74,150;

Up 48.64% from 2002 (£6,305,370): The Bourne Identity £2,150,511; Importance of Being Earnest £554,413; Once Upon A Time In The Midlands £129,920

Up 28.34% from 2001 (£7,300,419); Moulin Rouge £2,403,378; Scary Movie 2 £1,553,796

Next weekend in 2017: (£11,473,084): Victoria and Abdul £1,846,970; mother! £831,676; American Assassin £768,951; Aces of the Jungle £374,982;

Also opened

• STX International – American Animals – £347,486 from 162 screens

• Sony Pictures – Puzzle – £23,565 from 88 screens

• Vertigo – The Miseducation of Cameron Post – £142,996 from 98 screens

• Final Score – Sky Cinema – £9,945 from 52 screens

 

Other News

The Happytime Murders dropped almost 89% from its 7-day opening weekend; the film was always likely to underwhelm at the box office but should have opened day and date with the US instead of opening the following weekend but with for days of previews which meant it was dead before its official opening weekend.

Extended openings for non-Marvel/Bond or Harry Potter films rarely work so always amazes me distributors keep having them especially with the films they choose to give them to. As the biggest issue with 7-day openings is that often the film will be reviewed with the films opening the Friday before, so negative buzz is already out, while the audience for these films doesn’t grow it just shares it out across the 7 days.

The films then suffer massive declines in their second weekend over 80% for Silence, The Watch, Transformers: Age of Extinction, A Monster Calls, Bad Neighbours, Assassin’s Creed and Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban. (had the biggest opening for Harry Potter film in the UK but also was the lowest grossing, most over Harry Potter films took 3x opening Prisoner of Azkaban wasn’t able to do 2x)

UK Box Office Top 10

US Box office

• The Nun – Warner Bros

Opened with $53.8m; received 26% Rotten Tomatoes; C CinemaScore shows that The Nun will likely be very frontloaded especially with The Predator opening Friday; the first two Conjuring films received A- CinemaScore, Annabelle films received B, while last years It had  B+ and Paranormal Activity 3 opened to $52.5M-received C+ but still took over $100m.

After a disappointing first 5 months of 2018, The Nun is Warner Bros fifth #1 consecutive box office weekend after The Meg and Crazy Rich Asians. After Warner Bros sold Mowgli to Netflix they have a far stronger Fall slate with the biggest unknown animated Smallfoot, but

A Star is Born has generated huge buzz and rave reviews with early tracking of up to $50m opening and the film that could make a run against Fox Searchlight for next years Oscars. Two years ago, Fantastic Beasts didn’t match Harry Potter box office success but were never likely as while being Harry Potter Universe was still its own film but performed strongly and  The Crimes of Grindelwald being the second part should perform better as the audience have a better idea of what they are getting.

Aquaman could go either way after the positive reaction to Wonder Woman but negative reaction to Justice League reaction to footage and trailers has been positive. The biggest issue it has opening the same weekend as Alita: Battle Angel and Bumblebee which could see all three cannibalise themselves with Marry Poppins opening two days earlier. Absolutely crazy six films open wide over December 21^st weekend with Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse and Mortal Engines open the weekend before.

While reviews were poor social media and audience reaction was far more positive as the film received over 47m views across Facebook and YouTube.

Going into the weekend was looking at $30m+ opening but after taking $5.4m from Thursday previews estimates grew over the weekend to over $50m with a budget of only $20m it will be one of the most profitable studios releases this year and Warner Bros have again had far better success at the box office with the smaller films Game Night, Crazy Rich Asians and The Nun than their megamovies.

The five Conjuring films have taken $480.04m in the US and $1.33bn worldwide; with budgets of less than $20m a tiny fraction of Marvel Cinematic Universe films they are probably more profitable than most films released this year.

The Conjuring opened July 2013 $41,85m taking $137.4m

Annabelle opened October 2014 $37.13m taking $84.27m

The Conjuring 2 opened June 2016 $40.4m taking $102.47m

Annabelle: Creation opened August 2017 $35m taking $102.9m

If The Nun was to take $300m+ worldwide would clear over $150m in profit for the studio compare that to Avengers: Infinity War took $2.05bn worldwide almost 600% more but profits will be only three times, showing while studios concentrate on megamovies the bigger success is with the smaller films;

Deadline previously reported the franchise before The Nun had opened had made over $500m in profit for Warner Bros. This was similar for the Paranormal Activity franchise for Paramount between 2009 and 2015 taking $401m in the US and $890m worldwide with similar low budgets.

There is this current obsession over comic-book movies and massive budget films which might take $1bn+ worldwide but once rental is taken, budget, marketing net points and China 75% are removed these films aren’t nearly as profitable as they seem. But for a film like The Nun budget of $10m marketing of $40m taking $350m+ worldwide could see $150m+ profit with no net points and no sharing profits with outside partners. While these films give audiences something the same but different.

Took $77.5m internationally from 60 territories a third more than it was expected to open with ($45m) taking $131m worldwide

• Crazy Rich Asians – Warner

Down only 40.5% in its fourth weekend taking $13.14m and $135.77m;

Continues to perform similarly to 2011’s The Help which also opened with $26m; dropped 23% in its second weekend taking $20.1m and 27.4% $14.53m taking $96.83m in its third weekend went on to take $169m. Final box office for Crazy Rich Asians is expected to be $190m+.

With Academy delaying their Popcorn Award next year its unlikely Crazy Rich Asians will be nominated as Black Panther is more likely to get the nomination even though Crazy Rich Asians is a far bigger and important film as it did it without 17 films over 10 previous years that led up to Black Panther which created the fanbase the films already had, Crazy Rich Asians had fans of the book but needed to play far beyond that to be the success it’s become both at the box office and critically.

Highlighting the poor performance of rom-coms over the last decade Crazy Rich Asians is the biggest studio rom-com in the last nine years since Sandra Bullock and Ryan Reynolds’ The Proposal took in 2009 (was also Disney’s last biggest original film).

it is the 11^th  biggest rom-com in the US and biggest since 2009’s The Proposal it is expected to take over $190m which would see it overtake As Good as It Gets, Knocked Up, Runaway Bride, Sex and the City, The Proposal, There’s Something About Mary, Pretty Woman, Hitch and What Women Want over the next few weeks only beaten by My Big Fat Greek Wedding taking $241m in 2002.

Will overtake before next weekend both Ready Player One and Ocean’s Eight to become Warner Bros #1 film of 2018; while the year belongs to Disney these last three months below to Warner Bros with Ocean’s  Eight, The Meg, Crazy Rich Asians and The Nun they have shown studios don’t need to rely on megamovies audiences want other films.

This was one thing 20h Century Fox was also very successful with over recent years, apart from Avatar and Titanic they didn’t have the massive films their rivals had but they were strong and stable making a wide slate of films.

This is why it is very sad to see 20^th Century Fox being acquired by Disney and their 83-year history ending to become just a label within the Disney organisation. Warner Bros is likely to be the one studio willing to take up the mantlepiece from 20^th Century Fox making a wide mix of genres alongside their comic-book movies.

Internationally took $5.6m from 23 territories with a total of $28.5m; 

• Peppermint – STX Entertainment

Opened with $13.43m; received 13% Rotten Tomatoes and B+ CinemaScore

Opened similar to STX’s Mile 22 $13.7m opening last month and Den of Thieves $15.2m in January all three feel like Liam-Neeson-rip-offs that will be more at home on DVD rather than the cinema. But as STX continue to try to find an identity they are giving audiences action films studios don’t make many more. 

Action films often play far stronger internationally with Liam Neeson’s last film The Commuter taking almost 70% of its global $120m box office international and as STX presell most internationally territories (not China and UK) they can be lucrative.

Took $1.4m from 17 territories

• The Meg – Warner Bros

Drops 42.2% in its fifth weekend taking $6.09m and $135.77m total.

In its fifth weekend, Deep Blue Sea took $1.86m and $67,18m of $73.64m total; The Meg inflation inflated weekend box office and total are very similar.

Took $11.3m internationally from 67 territories (including $152.4m in China) total $360.4m and globally $492m #200 biggest film globally between Clash of the Titans and War for the Planet of the Apes.

• Mission: Impossible: Fallout – Paramount Pictures

Down 44.7% in its seventh weekend taking $3.88m and $212.2m; #22 biggest Paramount Pictures film in the US overtaking Mission: Impossible: Ghost Protocol and will shortly overtake Mission Impossible 2 to be the biggest film of the franchise in the US.

Paramount Pictures will be eager to get going with Mission Impossible 7 as soon as possible, but director Christopher McQuarrie has said he doesn’t want to make another Mission Impossible film (similar was said from Sam Mendes after Skyfall but came back to direct Spectre) and Paramount Pictures delayed Top Gun: Maverick a year the seventh film won’t arrive before 2021 at the earliest.

The 6 Mission Impossible films have taken $1.146bn in the US and $3.61bn worldwide; Tom Cruise 39 films have taken almost $4bn at the US box office since making his acting debut in 1981’s Endless Love and $10.048bn worldwide;

Took $38.6m from 65 territories (including $137.7m from China) $514.5m total and $726.6m worldwide; #199 biggest worldwide between Deadpool 2 and Up overtaking  global box office for Mission Impossible $457.7m, Mission Impossible 3 $398m, Mission: Impossible II $546m, Mission: Impossible: Rogue Nation $582.7m and Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol $694.7m.

• BlacKkKlansman – Focus

Down 39.6% in its fifth weekend taking $2.51m and $43.49m;

Has become Spike Lee’s third biggest film in the US after 2006’s Inside Man ($88.51m) and 1992’s Malcolm X ($48.16m).

Took $3.7m from 22 territories and $22.1m total

• Searching – Sony Pictures

Down 24.7% in its third weekend taking $4.57m and $14.36m total; 

Took $7.5m from 8 territories and $12.9m total

 

UK Box Office Predictions

Last weekend The Nun took 44% of the top 10 with less than £300k between #2 Christopher Robin and Incredibles 2. This weekend sees the release of three major release targetting different demographics The Predator, Crazy Rich Asians and King of Thieves and with cooler temperatures, all should perform strongly.

A few weeks ago, The Predator had the weekend to itself but then Warner Bros brought forward Crazy Rich Asians from November after performing strongly in the US; look to films like Bend It Like Beckham and My Big Fat Greek Wedding in 2002 opening with £2,001,795 and £1,503,436 as ethnic films that attracting mainstream audiences (inflation inflated opening would be £3,805,345 and £2,758,052) after received positive reviews (93% Rotten Tomatoes) and strong buzz will open strongly.

The Predator feels like it’s a bigger film than it is as apart from the first film released 31 years ago the sequels and crossovers underwhelmed both critically and at the box office (saying that must admit to enjoying Predator 2).

The film has generated a lot of media coverage some not very positive about the treatment of Olivia Munn but its unlikely to affect its box office. The Predator opens on Wednesday having a five-day opening will see it likely opening similar to Crazy Rich Asians but will open #1 because of the preview box office.

The Nun is likely to drop 50%+ after receiving mixed word of mouth and the arrival of The Predator.

King of Thieves is a harder one to predict as it has had strong media coverage with the cast doing a lot of press last week. Many have compared the film to Going in Style also starring Michael Caine, the difference was that was fiction but ids more like 1988’s Buster or 2008’s The Bank Job opened with £951,013 taking £3,801,036; both films were criticised for glorifying the actions of the thieves something that hasn’t really been mentioned about King of Thieves.

Opening in the UK

• The Predator – 20^th Century Fox

The fourth instalment of the Predator film series and sixth including Alien vs. Predator films starring Boyd Holbrook, Trevante Rhodes, Jacob Tremblay, Keegan-Michael Key, Olivia Munn, Thomas Jane, Alfie Allen and Sterling K. Brown and directed by Shane Black.

The film is set in the present day after Predator and Predator 2 but before Predators

First announced in 2014 producer John Davis said it reimagining the franchise in a “different, interesting way” while Shank Black said was “It’s an attempt to ‘event-ise’ the Predator again… to make it more mysterious.” And more intimate scale as the first film was.

He also said that the film sets up sequels, but will Disney be interested in making them once they take ownership of 20th Century Fox next year as they have little interest in R-rated films.

Stacey Snider talked about The Predator script in Variety last September “it’s unexpected and utterly fresh… from the first page, it didn’t read like a Predator film. It’s set in suburbia, there is a little boy and his dad at the centre of the action

Was originally set for release March 2^nd, 2018 but was pushed forward to February 9^th in June 2016 but pushed back to August 3^rd after Black Panther was dated and then moved to September 14^th in February after it needed reshoots; first trailer was released in May, the second full trailer released in June and the final trailer at the end of August; footage was screened at CinemaCon in April was positively received.

The film had its world premiere at the Toronto Film Festival receiving positive reviews; the original Predator film received its UK premiere during the London Film Festival in November 1987 was when the film festival screened big Hollywood films a year later Die Hard also premiered at the LFF.  

A scene was cut from the film when it was discovered featured registered sex offender; Oliver Munn told Fox about it in mid-August who were unaware of his background when they hired him as there “are legal limitations that impede studios from running background checks on actors” a Fox statement said, and they removed the scene within 24 hours when they found out.

Oliver Munn was asked why she was still promoting the film tweeting on Friday she was “contractually obligated,” and “from what I’m experiencing, I think they’d prefer I not show up. It would make everyone breathe easier.”

At the Toronto Film Festival, she found herself doing solo interviews after fellow actors dropped out she said “It’s a very lonely feeling to be sitting here by myself when I should be sitting here with the rest of the cast,” “The outpouring of support online and from the media and everyone just validating that it’s the right thing to do has been really uplifting and helps me breathe a little easier. … We’re making movies. We’re not in the mafia. I haven’t spoken to the family. This guy isn’t in our movie anymore. I try to do the right thing and that’s all I can do, and when I see something, you do something. You don’t just sit back and hope it protects your movie. The movie is a great movie, the scene isn’t in there. It’s going to do well. At the end of the day, it’s just a movie. We can’t tell stories about people and not care about people. … There are people who get very mad at you for not just helping them bury it.”

Writer/Director Shane Black appeared in the original film as Hawkins but is better known writing the scripts for Lethal Weapon, The Monster Squad and Lethal Weapon 2. Un 1990 he sold a spec script for The Last Boy Scout for $1.75m the highest ever paid at the time for a script.

The early 90s saw many screenwriters sell spec script for large sums (14 scripts were sold in 1990 for $1m+) with many acquired by Carolco including Gale Force (was due to star Sylvester Stallone and be directed by Renny Harlin but made Cliffhanger instead), The Tickling Man and a year later Joe Eszterhas sold Basic instinct for $3m and Jade for $2.5m while Shane Black sold the Last Kiss Goodnight for $4.5m in 1994, film was made in 1996. 

Was nine years until he wrote his next film which was also his directorial debut and one of my favourite films Kiss Kiss Bang Bang in 2005; the film underwhelmed at the box office opening with £458,826 and taking £2,889,226 but helped relaunch Robert Downey Jr. (had gone downhill after being nominated for Best Actor for Chaplin in 1992) soon afterwards starred as Iron Man in 2008.

It was another 8 years till Shane Black retuned writing and directing Iron Man 3 starring Robert Downey Jr followed up with The Nice Guys which received positive reviews but underwhelmed at the box office more due to poor dating. (Icon picked up UK rights choosing to open it June 3^rd, 2016 against Warcraft: The Beginning, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows and Me Before You, The Nice Guys opened in sixth with £1,004,622

Failure of The Nice Guys was probably one of the major reasons Icon Films closed soon after only a couple years after relaunching in 2013. It is very hard for independent distributors in the UK as seen recently with Koch and STX do you take a massive risk and acquire a major film that could make a name for the distributor as it did for eOne with Twilight or does it bankrupt it as so many have done in the past. 21 years ago, First Independent Films were relaunching themselves and acquired UK rights for G.I Jane had a massive launch at Cannes Film Festival 

Predator opened in January 1987 with one week on limited release taking £131,502 and expanding into 265 screens in its second weekend with £982,110 taking £2,517,131; In 1998 average ticket price was £2.30 ticket prices have increased 242% since inflation inflated wide opening £3,360,524 and total £8,612,966

Predator 2 opened May 1991 with £936,057 taking £2,431,277, but with tickets £3.03 in 1991 they are up 160% since opening would be £2,431,277 and total £5,009,881

Predators opened July 2010 (third behind The Twilight Saga: Eclipse and Shrek Forever After) with £2,203,193 (previews of £551,214) taking £5,767,854; (ticket inflation since of 32%)

Alien vs Predator opened October 2004 £2,003,663 (£241,549 previews) taking £5,017,379); ticket inflation 75% opening £3,511,988 total £8,794,381

Alien vs. Predator 2 opened January 2008 £1,970,363 taking £4,420,884

Ticket inflation 55% opening £3,070,645 total £6,889,576

Hones Trailers recently did their unique spin on Predator

20^th Century Fox repeats what Warner Bros did earlier this year with Tomb Raider and Ready Player One with their Wednesday previews screenings all 3D. From Thursday onwards, the majority of the screenings are 2D as 3D sales have declined over the last few years as audiences have realised that 3D rarely adds to the cinema experience but only a third more to ticket prices.

Exhibitors and studios killed the format out of greed using it to artificially inflate box office with many films released in 3D retrofitted rather than shot in the format as Mission Impossible: Fallout was. Five years ago, Gravity was the film that needed to be seen in 3D the same was for Avatar four years earlier.

After a few years of films being retrofitted into 3D audiences realised that 3D wasn’t adding anything to the cinema experience apart from a third more in price which saw 3D sales decline. 3D was originally fitted in the biggest screens of multiplexes and cinemas would show 3D screenings all day that dropped to a couple of shows a day which is what is happening with The Predator.

• Crazy Rich Asians – Warner Bros

Romantic comedy-drama film starring Constance Wu, Henry Golding, Gemma Chan, Awkwafina, Nico Santos, Lisa Lu, Ken Jeong, and Michelle Yeoh and directed by Jon M. Chu based on Kevin Kwan’s 2013 novel.

Was the first film by a major Hollywood studio to feature a majority Asian American cast in a modern setting since The Joy Luck Club in 1993; received positive reviews opened with $26.5m in the US dropping only 6.4% in its second weekend taking $137m worldwide; a sequel is currently in development

Was originally set to open a week after the US in the UK but then was moved back to November when The Spy Who Dumped Me and The Happytime Murders moved to the same weekend. After its strong performance in the US was brought forward to September 14^th.  

With Night School and Johnny English opening end of September and October and Warner Bros releasing A Star is Born and Smallfoot early November was the best date and they had success with Due Date in 2010 opening early November with £2,346,089 taking £10,516,871. Maybe Warner Bros felt they needed to hold a talker screening program to build awareness but after its success and positive buzz, this wasn’t needed.

While many believe 2018 is the year of the Black Panther it is the year of Crazy Rich Asians, while Black Panther might have taken more than many expected it was still going to always be $1bn+ as four other MCU had been. Crazy Rich Asians while being based on a popular novel didn’t have the same support being the first all Asian cast film for 25 years and after the poor success of rom-coms over the last decade.

Its hard to compare Crazy Rich Asians to other rom-coms as like comedies featuring African American actors for decades not travelling this is, of course, the first rom-com featuring an Asian cast. While Black Panther featured an almost all African American cast it was still the 18^th film of the MCU and the film would play to a much wider audience to many who wouldn’t see a comic-book movie.

For Crazy Rich Asians there is the double issue of the Asia cast and that rom-coms which were the mainstay at the box office for decades have underwhelmed over the last decade; while in the US Crazy Rich Asians was the major release for the weekend it’s one of three big films alongside The Predator and King of Thieves but all three should be targetting different demographics.

Crazy Rich Asians opened with $26m in the US last month the 10% rule would make it have a £2.6m opening but for comedies that doesn’t normally work and it about 8% which would be similar to inflation inflated opening of Friends with Benefits, Knocked Up, Mean Girls, In Her Shoes, About Time, How to Be Single and Why Him? between £1.9m-£2.3m.

• King of Thieves – Studiocanal UK

British crime drama starring Michael Caine, Tom Courtenay, Michael Gambon, Charlie Cox, Jim Broadbent, Paul Whitehouse and Ray Winstone and directed by James Marsh; based on the 2015 Hatton Garden safe deposit robbery.

Reviews compared it to last years Going in Style also starring Michael Caine, difference was that was fiction while King of Thieves was based on real events and they weren’t a group of loveable rogue old men; Going in Style opened in April 2017 with £0.56m taking £2.8m had one of the lowest second weekend drops for a major release in 2017.

Gangster films are very popular at the box office based on real events but the gap between them is often several decades like 1988’s Buster 20 years after the Great Train Robbery (Prince Charles and Princess Diana were due to attend the film’s premiere in September 1988 but after it was accused of glorifying crime and Phil Collins wanted to avoid causing them an embarrassment). Reviews were mixed criticising the film’s tone which critics have said about King of Thieves.

Three years ago, Studiocanal UK released Legend about The Kray Twins which was well received critically and at the box office, was again accused of glorifying crime but the difference between Legend and King of Thieves is over the 40-year gap. The issue many will have with King of Thieves is that its only three years after the robbery.

Legend opened September 2015 with £5,189,074 taking £18,202,111

2001’s Gangster No.1 £133,092 taking £354,513, Sexy Beast opened with £96,162 on limited release and £283,312 wide taking £582,156

Early September has been a strong date to open British based films; 2017 – Victoria and Abdul; 2016 – Bridget Jones’s Baby; 2015 – Legend; 2014 – Pride; 2013- Rush and next year Danny Boyle’s Untitled Musical is set for mid- September release but could be switched for Downtown Abbey: Movie.

Early September release often sees the film premiere at Venice a few weeks before with the talent able to come to the UK to promote and September also sees the return of chat shows from Graham Norton and Jonathan Ross often get audiences of 4m+.

This weekend was also the weekend Studiocanal UK had their first £2m+ opener Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy opening with £2,814,860 taking £14,133,500.

Working Title and Studiocanal launched a joint venture in 1999 after Universal Pictures acquired Working Title and other assets from their purchase of Polygram Films they co-financed many films together most films released by Universal Pictures but a few Studiocanal acquired including Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, I Give It a Year, Legend, Rush and King of Thieves.

In 2013 Studiocanal sued Universal Pictures after claiming they failed to account for millions of dollars from films claiming millions in Working Title film revenue after underreported millions of dollars from films Working Title developed with the joint venture between Universal Pictures and Studiocanal between 1999 and 2009 when both companies were owned by Vivendi. Over this time the two companies produced 44 films 

With cooler night temperatures and children back to school from mid-September older audiences return to the cinema wanting to see the more adult-targeted films that have premiered at Venice, Toronto and London Film Festivals generating strong buzz as A Star is Born and First Man have done recently.

Similar films include 2017’s Going in Style; 2008’s The Bank Job opened with £951,013 taking £3,801,036; 2009’s Harry Brown opened with £1,271,814 taking £4,557,776; 2004’s Layer Cake opened with £1,090,561 taking £4,287,343

• Superfly – Sony Pictures

Action film starring Trevor Jackson, Jason Mitchell, Michael K. Williams, Lex Scott Davis, and Jennifer Morrison and directed by Director X; remake of the 1972 blaxploitation film Super Fly.

Was released in the US in June receiving mixed reviews and underwhelmed at the box office expected to open with $12m but took $1.2m being pulled from most cinemas after three weeks.

As with Action Point and Upgrade it will be given a token theatrical release in the UK again just for its Sky TV deal. There are far too many films being released each year (last year over 800) with the top 100 films taking almost 90% of the year’s box office the remaining films are fighting over scraps. Just as cinemagoers have become far more selective in the films they pay to see in cinemas over the last decade distributors need to be far more selective in the films they release, and films like Action Point, Upgrade and Superfly shouldn’t get released theatrically.

The other issue giving these films a theatrical release means they still have to have the three-month theatrical window even though they don’t last a week. Exhibitors need to allow distributors to cut the theatrical window for films that underperform at the box office as there is little point in releasing Superfly in cinemas if it can’t be released on DVD until December.  

I always go back to Paramount Pictures 2015 idea of releasing films on PVoD a week after they drop below 1,000 screens in the US (would be about 200 in the UK) as that would allow the underperforming films to be released on PVoD within weeks of their theatrical release but then make exhibitors keep films like The Greatest Showman on screens for longer.  

Opening in US

• The Predator – 20^th Century Fox

Expected to open with $25-30m; received mixed reviews 43% Rotten Tomatoes score as with The Nun will be very frontloaded.

Predator opened in June 1987 with $12.03m taking $59.73m

Predator 2 opened in November 1990 with $8.87m  taking $30.66m

Predators opened in July 2010 with $24.76m taking $52m

Alien Vs. Predator opened August 2004 with $38.29m taking $80,28m

Aliens Vs. Predator: Requiem opened December 2007 with $10.05m taking $41.79m

In 1987 Predator was the 12^th biggest film of the year; it’s weird to look back at 1987 and see only two sequels in the top 20 Beverly Hills Cop 2 and The Living Daylights;

• A Simple Favour – Lionsgate

Thriller starring Anna Kendrick, Blake Lively, Henry Golding and Andrew Rannell and directed by Paul Feig based on the 2017 novel by Darcey Bell; received positive reviews 88% Rotten Tomatoes.

In 2016 20^th Century Fox acquired the film rights to the book but after the film was seen to be too similar to Gone Girl and The Girl on the Train (both performed strongly in early October; Lionsgate acquired the film from the studio in June 2017.

The first teaser trailer was released on May 2^nd with a second teaser trailer on May 24^th both were well received.

Its expected to open with $12m-$15m;

• White Boy Rick – Sony Pictures

Crime drama starring Matthew McConaughey, Bel Powley, Jennifer Jason Leigh, Brian Tyree Henry, Rory Cochrane, RJ Cyler, Jonathan Majors, Eddie Marsan, Bruce Dern, and Piper Laurie and directed by Yann Demange, written by Andy Weiss and Logan Miller & Noah Miller;  had its world premiere at the Telluride Film Festival and also screens at Toronto Film Festival receiving average reviews.

Originally set for January 12^th, 2018 before being pushed back a week, then again moved to August 17^th and then in April moved to September 14^th.

Was delayed from January to August after the film tested strongly and the director was given extra time to add extra scenes

Expected to open with $5m-$9m