UK/US Box Office June 15th-17th Week 24 and UK BO Predictions

Top 5 Breakdown

  1. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom – £7,220,952 – £25,571,845

Dropping 49.63% in its second weekend; taking 33.61% less than Jurassic World after 12 days compared with £38,522,331 from 11 days.

Took £18.25m from its opening 9-day week (third biggest in 2018) and £14.7m from is opening week 3rd biggest of 2018 after Avengers: Infinity War and Black Panther and 59th biggest opening week.

biggest opening 30 June 19

While Jurassic World was the third biggest opening week of 2015 (behind SW: The Force Awakens and Spectre) taking £24,874,135

Jurassic World had the second biggest second weekend in 2015 after Skyfall now fourth behind Skyfall, Spectre and Beauty and the Beast but Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom had the 25th biggest second weekend taking 35.1% less than Jurassic World;

Jurassic UK BO june 19

Jurassic World second weekend inflation inflated box office would be the 13th biggest highlighting again how ticket inflation has affected the box office. While Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom would have 42nd most admissions after 12 days on release this compares to 13th biggest for Jurassic World in 11 days.

Over the last few weeks have been compiling a list of 500+ biggest opening in the UK not having access to ComScore data finding box office pre-2001 is hard used to have Screen International’s from 1988 to 1998 I threw out sadly when I moved about 15 years ago. I listened to the biggest openings and calculated their admissions and inflation inflated box office opening and second weekends and totals. If anyone is reading this and has access to ComScore data would love to be able to fill the gaps as IMDB data is not always correct and doesn’t have many pre-2001.

Jurassic World dropped 42.46% – £11,133,912 and £38,522,331 (60.5%) of £67,737,241

Jurassic Park 3 dropped 62.15% – £1,802,580 and £9,183,228 (50.71%) of £18,108,325

The Lost World: Jurassic Park dropped 24% – £4,332,000 and £9,090,395 (35.23%) of £25,799,961

Jurassic Park dropped 4.8% – £4,655,000 of £47,790,337

Studios run scared of the World Cup, but the group matches apart from England games get at the most 8m audience which is what Britain’s Got Talent got on Saturday nights, but studios don’t run away from that. Games featuring England for getting much bigger ratings Monday’s game against Tunisia had 18.3m (bigger than 2014’s opening game against Italy 15.3m but the timing was later and less than 2010’s opener against USA 20m) the biggest TV audience of 2018 overtaking the Royal Wedding. England next plays Sunday 1pm and the final group game on Thursday against Belgium at 7pm will get an audience of over 20m. England would then next play probably on Tuesday 3rd July a 7pm (again getting 20m+ TV audience) and then Saturday 7th July at 3pm.  

Over the years distributors have incorporated big sporting events into their marketing campaign including two years ago with Independence Day: Resurgence TV advert with footballers remembering what happened 20 years earlier and Hart Vs Hart penalty shootout for Central Intelligence. 

Love Island on ITV2 probably has a much bigger impact as it plays strongly to the 16-34 audience who are the target demographic for these films with about 3m watching each night and more on catch-up (but being on ITV2 real ratings are much higher as you only need to see the coverage the show is getting on social media, TV and the press to see it’s attracting a much bigger audience then the TV ratings suggest as GBBO did last year on Channel 4).

As the World Cup progresses the TV audience will grow but still believe if studios released a film audience wanted to see they would see it despite the World Cup. Of course, evening games at this year’s World Cup are prime time TV as they will be for the next World Cup in Qatar in 2022 while Brazil 2014 had a bigger time difference.  

While Brazil was four hours ahead of the UK the World Cup in South Africa and Germany in 2010 and 2006 was only one hour ahead while Russia and Qatar are two hours ahead that all increase TV viewing figures; England’s first game for 2010 against the USA was seen by over 20m on Saturday 12th June while England v Ecuador second game in 2006 by 16.3m.

The first weekend of recent World Cups

In 2014

1 – 22 Jump Street – 2nd w/e – £2,255,100 – £9,771,503

2- Maleficent – 3rd w/e – £2,255,100 – £13,620,598

3 – X-Men: Days of Future Past – 4th w/e – £2,255,100 – £24,793,554

In 2010

1 – Sex and the City 2 – 3rd w/e £1,489,833 – £17,418,854

2 – Letters to Juliet – 1st w/e – £793,425

3 – Streetdance – 4th w/e – £715,317 – £10,227,673

In 2006

1 – The Omen – 1st w/e – £2,096,002

2 – X-Men 3 – 3rd w/e – £879,386 – £16,093,8251

3 – The Da Vinci Code – 4th w/e – £757,292 – £26,641,028

In 2002

1 – Star Wars Ep II – Attack of the Clones – 3rd w/e – £2,442,698 – £26,097,434

2 – 40 Days and 40 Nights – 1st w/e – 1,027,578

3 -The Time Machine – 1st w/e – 808,389

1st weekend European Football Championships

2016

1 – Me Before You – 2nd w/e – £1,453,859 –  £4,478,000

2 – Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows -2nd w/e – £840,868 – £4,801,767

3 – Alice through the Looking Glass – 3rd w/e – £832,914 – £8,306,639

2012

1 – Prometheus – 2nd w/e – £3,135,504 – £15,471,936

2 – Men in Black 3 – 3es w/e –  £2,533,051 – £15,081,932

3 – Snow White and the Huntsman – 2nd w/e – £2,210,929 – £9,545,054

2008

1 – Sex and the City – 2nd w/e – £3,085,231 – £16,062,366

2 – Indiana Jones & The Kingdom of the Crystal Skull – 3rd w/e – £2,671,885 – £32,704,397

3 – Superhero Movie – 1st w/e – £851,353

2004

1 – Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban -2nd w/e – £4,391,262 – £31,557,411

2- The Day After Tomorrow – 3rd w/e – £4,391,262 – £18,603,495

3 – Troy – 5th w/e – £720,745 – £15,410,405

But the first weekend of the London Olympics in July 2012 The Dark Knight Rises took £7,275,558 in its second weekend with children’s films Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax and Ice Age: Continental Drift performing well

With mixed reviews and the World Cup starting Thursday can expect a 65%+ second weekend drop taking £4.5m+ and unlikely to take more than £50m it might not match Jurassic Park’s 1993 box office £47,790,337 which is now £114,190,618 inflation inflated and The Lost World: Jurassic Park £25,799,961 is now £48,620,565.

Inflation inflated Jurassic Park would have opened £11,708,100 and The Lost World: Jurassic Park £10,741,769 both included Thursday previews but they were one evening show while Jurassic World and Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom had the whole day of previews with many multiplexes having 20+ shows on Wednesday and Thursday.

Jurassic World had Minions opening two weeks after and Terminator Genisys a week later while Fallen Kingdom only has Ocean’s Eight opening next Monday but has the World Cup from Thursday which is cinemas kryptonite more than sunshine.

25 years ago, the first Jurassic Park film opened 6 weeks after US was when distributors dated films to give them the best date for their individual country rather than now with most opening day and date with the US, so the release date isn’t always the optimal date for the film. Jurassic Park opened July 16th at the start of the summer holidays as the two sequels, but Jurassic World and Fallen Kingdom opened in June.

Back in 1993, Thursday previews were limited to one main evening preview on Thursday night Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom in comparison has two full days of previews extended its opening weekend boosting its opening with £3.66m.

Jurassic Park opened on 16th July 1993 with £4.9m having small drops on its following weeks as it played in cinemas for almost a year taking £47,790,337 currently 38th biggest film in the UK. In 1993 average ticket price was £4.12; the inflation inflated box office today would be £114,190,618 sixth biggest film in the UK.

Nostalgia for Jurassic Park with Jurassic World opening 22 years to the day of the original US release date helped it open with £19.35m including previews of £2.51m (in 2015 it was the sixth biggest opening in the UK now it’s the eleventh). It was only the second film to take over £10m in its second weekend after Skyfall (Spectre and Beauty and the Beast have since overtaken it while The Force Awakens, The Last Jedi and Infinity War have also taken over £10m in their second weekends) going on to take £63.67m.

Jurassic Park took 9.75x opening (£4.9m); The Lost World: Jurassic Park 4,53x (£5,700,000); Jurassic Park 3 3.8x (£4,762,155): Jurassic World 3.32x (£19,350,727): Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom will likely hold lower than Jurassic World taking about 3.2x opening.

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom took $173.6m from 51 territories including $111.9m from China (Jurassic World opened with $99.15m taking $228.74m) and $370m total. Jurassic World in 2015 had taken $981m internationally after 12 days but that included $398.23m from the US. Jurassic World went on to take $1.67bn globally but it’s unlikely Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom will take $1.2bn and this is partly due to its international early release which is likely to hurt its US opening. Why didn’t Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom open in the US June 8th as most of the world as international early releasing hurt the key market which is still the US despite the growth in recent years of China as rentals are a third of the US.

  1. Hereditary – £1,863,9130 – NE

Very strong opening took £300,000 from Thursday previews helped with no major releases and while the World Cup started on Thursday viewing figures for the early games have been similar to Britain’s Got Talent.

While recent horrors A Quiet Place opened with £2.7m including previews in April and Insidious: The Last Key opened with £1.8m in January Hereditary was similar to horror Jennifer Kent’s The Babadook opened 24th October 2014 with £347,512 taking £1,191,222 and Robert Eggers’ The Witch opened 11th March 2016 with £447,626 taking £883,088

Hereditary was helped by a strong marketing campaign, positive reviews (94% Rotten Tomatoes) with many calling it the scariest horror of the year but the best marketing was being trailered before A Quiet Place which has taken almost £12m.

Hereditary opened with $13.57m two weeks ago in the US so it’s 10% opening which many still use as the calculation to estimate UK opening but films rarely open with 10% in the UK Insidious Chapter: The Last Key opened with 7.74% and A Quiet Place as only 6.36%. Recent 10% openers have been Spider-Man Homecoming, Solo: A Star Wars Story, Thor: Ragnarok, Deadpool 2, Avengers Infinity Wars and Ready Player One.

 

  1. Solo: A Star Wars Story – £972,673 – £17,988,593

Down only 18.41% in its fourth weekend; after 25 days on release Solo in the UK -47.78% Phantom Menace -43.57% Attack of the Clones -49.21%, Revenge of the Sith (ticket prices were 85% less for prequels) -83.41% The Force Awakens -69.88% Rogue One -76.55% The Last Jedi.

Star Wars UK BO June 19

Solo will likely take £20m+ at the UK box office

-60.58% of 1999’s The Phantom Menace

-46.29% of 2002’s Attack of the Clones

-48.96% of 2005’s Revenge of the Sith

-83.74% of 2015’s The Force Awakens

-69.7% of 2016’s Rogue One

75.81% of 2017’s The Last Jedi          

Despite polarized reaction to The Last Jedi and the poor performance of Solo Lucasfilm have reportedly 9 Star Wars films in development which include the two new trilogies by Game of Thrones creators David Benioff and DB Weiss and Rian Johnson the first part expected to be released in 2020.

J.J. Abrams is expected to start shooting Star Wars IX this summer at Pinewood Studios which will be released December 2019. All those fans that stayed away Solo will surely be back for Star Wars IX but will face off against Dwyane Johnson again in Jumanji 2 opening within a week of it.

When Jumanji opened a few days after The Last Jedi few expected much from it but opened with £8.15 (including £4.13m from previews) and went on to take £37m at the box office. The Last Jedi took £10.15m in its second weekend against it taking £82.67m 33% less than The Force Awakens. While being the biggest film of the year I’m sure most expected it to take over £100m and would have surely done so had it not been for the polarized reaction to The Last Jedi (which also saw it play out much faster in cinemas) and Jumanji.

Highest grossing UK June 19

A year earlier Rogue One opened with £17.3m (a total Solo has just past over its fourth weekend) taking £66m more than three times Solo. I still believe had Solo not opened 5 months after The Last Jedi or it been so disliked Solo would have performed far stronger. What amazed me Disney could have moved Solo in January when 20th Century Fox brought Deadpool 2 forward two weeks to open the week before Solo but in their arrogance, they kept its release date. In January they had yet released any trailers the first was teased during the Super Bowl in February. While delaying a film as big as Solo would be massive as few films are successful after they have been delayed I’m sure audiences would of accepted it as I’m sure after The Last Jedi felt they needed a longer gap before they saw another Star Wars film.

In 1997 Titanic was famously delayed from July to December but despite that and the huge media coverage, the film received it still became the biggest film of the year and was the biggest film in the world until Avatar opened 16 years later. Similarly, Baz Luhrmann’s Moulin Rouge and The Great Gatsby were delayed over 6 months and were probably far bigger successes because of their delays than they would have been.

But of course, the box office is littered with films that were delated and flopped when they finally opened. Warner Bros finally release Mogwai in October which was due to be released two years earlier but was delayed due to Disney’s reimagination of The Jungle Book. Were rumours DC wanted to delay Justice League, but Warner Bros bosses didn’t want to delay it, or they would miss out on their big bonuses.

This is similar to Universal Pictures choosing to open Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom internationally early two weeks due to the World Cup instead of opening it the same date in the US. As had it opened in the US June 8th would have given it two weeks ahead of The Incredibles 2 which was always likely to have one of the biggest openings of the summer. Instead, Fallen Kingdom opens the week after The Incredibles 2 and will open over 40% less than Jurassic World three years ago. The US market is still the most important global market despite the growth of China as rentals for a film like Fallen Kingdom will be up to three times more than China.

George Lucas recently revealed his plans for Star Wars 7-9 he had originally planned to make. Since making the first film in 1977 he had planned to make a nine-film series but after making Return of the Jedi in 1983 and his divorce in 1987 he changed his mind but then in 1994 George Lucas announced plans for the prequels.

While the prequels received much-deserved backlash and criticism as stories go they are still far better than The Force Awakens and The Last Jedi as they tell a different story instead of repeating previous events as Disney’s Star Wars films have done. Months after opening everyone realised The Force Awakens was just a fan remake of A New Hope while The Last Jedi is very similar to The Empire Strikes Back.

While completely unnecessary Rogue One and Solo are the most enjoyable of Disney’s Star Wars films as they try to tell a different story, but the problem is we know enough already about the events that feature in these films, so they have little tension as is the problem with prequels.

  1. Deadpool 2 – £874,668 – £30,619,381

Down only 26% in its fifth weekend only 9.5% less than Deadpool which took £966,484 in its fifth weekend.

Becoming 20th Century Fox’s 14th biggest film in the UK and probably their last as an independent studio with Disney or Comcast likely to own the studio next year.

biggest fox films June 19 UK

Comic-book fans got all excited last December with the news Disney would buy 20th Century Fox so they would get X-Men joining the Marvel Cinematic Universe were terrified with the news that Comcast had raised their offer for the studio. Of course, there is much more at play than a film franchise is up to 10,000 jobs that could go and the 80-year-old studio which has had strong success over recent years.

While Disney’s success over the past decade has been mostly from acquired franchises Marvel ($4bn in 2009), Lucasfilm ($4bn in 2012) and Pixar ($7.4bn in 2006) 20th Century Fox have mixed their slates with comic-book movies alongside many original films 8 of their top 20 biggest films in the US are original.

Marvel recently released 33 10th anniversary celebration posters and Deadpool released his own version of the posters even though Deadpool only started two years ago and the X-Men film series started 18 years ago.

Deadpool dropped 35% in its fifth weekend taking £966,484 and £35,773,741 was fourth behind London Has Fallen £1,800,526 and new arrivals Kung Fu Panda 3 £4,771,131 and The Divergent Series: Allegiant £1,838,019 ahead of it.

X Men UK BO June 19

The 13 Marvel X-Men films have taken almost £245m at the UK box office over the last 18 years. 20th Century Fox has three X-Men film set for release next year Dark Phoenix, Gambit and New Mutants but who will release them is unknown will it be Fox, Disney or Universal.

  1. Race 3 – £782,950 – NE

With the lack of mainstream new releases allowed Bollywood thriller to climb into the top 10 showing in only a quarter of the screens of all the other films on wide release.

Has the second-highest Bollywood opening of the year behind Padmaavat opened in January with £851,252.

Race 3 was showing in only 141 screens which highlights the issue most films are playing on far too many screens distributors seem to want to open films as wide as possible not to target locations as they used to do years ago. Different films will play better in different areas of the country so with all the data available to distributors and exhibitors locations should be more carefully targeted. Of course, now as films are released digitally distributors don’t have the £2,000 cost to make the 35mm print which allows distributors to open these films much wider than they used to.

Films like Book Club or The Guernsey Literary and Potato Peel Pie Society wouldn’t have opened in over 500 cinemas 10 years ago they would have had a much slowly expansion but as distributors are concerned if they don’t go as wide as possible on opening weekend the film won’t expand they believe going as wide as possible is the best solution. The problem is that these films which would have been sleepers in the past would be played out of cinemas far quicker than they would of otherwise of done.

In the US Paramount Pictures opened Book Club on 2,781 screens far less than normal wide releases today. While also in the US platform releasing is still regularly done to build momentum and buzz for films this was done regularly 10+ years ago but it’s much rarer now.

UK box office in detail

This weekend’s top 10 box office took £13,335,852 down 28.46% from last weekend £18,642,162;

The weekend admissions 1,719,344 down 28.46% from last weekend 2,404,239; 2018 average ticket price is probably up about 3% from last year’s £7.49 to £7.67 for 2018;   

9 films opened at weekend taking £2,929,932; Hereditary took 63.61% (£1,863,913); remaining 8 films shared 36.38% (£1,066,019): Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom took 54.14% (£7,220,952) similar to 57.1% Jurassic World took in its second weekend in 2015.

The weekend was up 132.1% from last year (£5,745,646) Churchill £392,732, Gifted £305,323, Rock Dog £13,351

Up 54.88% from 2016: (£8,610,329) The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Case £4,637,862, Gods of Egypt £484,467, Barbershop: A Fresh Cut £91,502, The Keeping Room £26,199

Next weekend in 2017: (£9,547,804) Transformers: The Last Knight £4,635,570, Hampstead £453,522, The Book of Henry £72,128, The Graduate: 50th Anniversary 4K Restoration £28,946

Also opened

The Happy Prince – Lionsgate

 £107,178 from 34 screens

Super Troopers 2 – 20th Century Fox  

£101,881co from 306 screens

The original film released in November 2002 opened with £269,696 taking £454,517

Other News

Both Sherlock Gnomes and Show Dogs increased their box office from last weekend while both received poor reviews they are hanging in the charts and holding because o the lack of children’s films this year the same reason why Peter Rabbit took so much. Parents are always looking for a film to keep their children entertained for a couple of hours doesn’t need to be any good but just something to get them out of the house. Next week Brit comedy Patrick will take up some of that slack before The Incredibles 2 and Hotel Transylvania 3: A Monster Vacation open in July.

 

UK Box Office Top 10

UK BO10 June 19th

US Box office

US BO June 19th

  • The Incredibles 2 – Disney

Opened with $182.68m; received 94% Rotten Tomatoes Score and A+ CinemaScore

Having the eighth biggest opening in the US while The Incredibles opening is now #198 biggest opening; Disney now has nine of the biggest openings in the US with only Jurassic World the non-Disney film.

Took $18.5m from Thursday midnights ahead of last year’s Beauty and the Beast $16.3m and more than double Finding Dory and took more on its opening day than the first film opened with in 2004.

Shortly after the film opened in cinemas some Twitter users issued warnings about a number of scenes that could negatively impact moviegoers “with epilepsy, migraines, and chronic illness.” Disney was contacted about the potential health hazards and told theatres to issue warnings about these scenes.

The Incredibles opened in November 2004 with $70,467,623 and took $261,441,092; inflation inflated opening $103,942,581 total $385,636,136.

The Incredibles had the fifth biggest opening of the year behind Shrek 2, Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, Spider-Man 2 and The Passion of the Christ and the fifth biggest film of the year behind Shrek 2, Spider-Man 2, The Passion of the Christ and Meet the Fockers.

When The Incredibles opened in 2004 comic-book movies were limited to X-Men and Spider-Man films from 20th Century Fox and Sony Pictures and Disney’s previous attempts to making comic-book movies 1990’s Dick Tracy and 1991’s The Rocketeer weren’t huge hits. While the first film Brad Bird directed was 1999’s critically acclaimed The Iron Giant but underwhelmed at the box office most recently directed Tomorrowland which also underwhelmed at the box office not helped by a poorly conceived marketing campaign targetting the film to the wrong demographic. 

The Incredibles was Disney’s biggest film of 2004 taking $248.39m and was the last year Disney released a $100m budget original film which took over $100m at the box office National Treasure taking $150m. Disney’s 2004 slate was original film heavy with only one sequel     The Princess Diaries 2: Royal Engagement and a couple of remakes The Ladykillers and Around the World in 80 Days completely different to their properties heavy slates in recent years.

In April The Incredibles 2 was tracking to open with $110m+ in May this was upped to $140m+ but after Solo underperformed it’s likely that Incredibles 2 will open much bigger. The big question is how it will hold in its second weekend against Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom.

Two years ago, Finding Dory opened 13 years after Finding Nemo opened with $135,060,273 taking $486,295,561; Finding Nemo opened with $70,251,710 taking $339,714,978; inflation inflated opening $106,717,357 taking $516,051,277.

In 2016 Finding Dory dropped 46% taking $72.95m in its second weekend; the year-earlier Inside Out opened with $90.44m the week after Jurassic World which held #1 with $106.58m. Finding Dory was the second biggest film of the year.

The first teaser premiered on November 18, 2017, received 113 million views in its first 24 hours becoming the most viewed trailer for an animated film, and the 7th most-viewed trailer. The trailer was released on April 13th.

After The Incredibles 2 opened with $183m and Finding Dory opened with $135m Toy Story 4 should open with over $200m when it opens next June footage was screened last week at CineEurope with the first trailer expected in November with Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2.

Over the weekend Disney used The Incredibles 2 to boost the box office of A Wrinkle in Time to get it to cross the $100m barrier with double bill screenings in drive-ins with The Incredibles 2. Sunday estimates reported A Wrinkle in Time taking $1.77m taking $100,000,127 but final figures dropped it $1.67m and $99.6m. It will become Disney’s first original $100m+ budget film to take over $100m at the box office since 2004’s National Treasure.

While Disney over the years since has had huge success making properties their original films have suffered which used to be a linchpin to their success. This is probably one of the many reasons 20th Century Fox was the perfect acquisition as in recent years they were having the success with original films Disney were having before they moved into the properties business.

With Comcast upping their bid for 20th Century Fox, Disney might not buy the studio which would be good for the industry as it would give them almost a monopoly as currently, they share 50.7% of the US box office for 2018. Comcast acquiring 20th Century Fox would allow with recently acquiring Bond 25 would give Universal Pictures a chance to compete directly with Disney.

Internationally opened with $51.5m from 25 territories with the World Cup has a more staggered international release opening in China next week and then across Europe from the end of June.

Disney has always delayed the release of their summer Pixar film in recent years to summer holidays (previously was October) but next year with The Lion King reimagination opening in July they will be releasing Toy Story 4 day and date with the US. Three years ago, Disney released Ant-Man and Inside Out within weeks of each other but are delaying Ant-Man and the Wasp a month to avoid these two comic-book opening within weeks of themselves. This has made many believe Ant-Man and the Wasp have been delayed due to the World Cup.

  • Ocean’s Eight – Warner Bros

Down 54.4% in its second weekend taking $18.96m and $78.58m  

Dropping slightly more than expected probably because of The Incredibles 2 opening far bigger than expected and other releases all took less than they were expecting.

Oceans US BO June 19

2001’s Ocean’s Eleven dropped 42.1% taking $22.07m and $72.30m of $183.41m

2004’s Ocean’s Twelve dropped 53.7% taking $18.12m and $68.52m of $112.54m

Ocean’s Thirteen dropped 45.4% taking $19.72m and $70.42m of $117.15m

Ocean’s Eight took $19.3m internationally and $37.1m total from 36 countries opening across Europe this week across Europe as an alternative to the World Cup; Ocean’s Eleven took $450.71m, Ocean’s Twelve $362.74m and Ocean’s Thirteen $311.31m globally.

  • Tag – Warner Bros

Opened with $14.97m received 61% Rotten Tomatoes score and B+ CinemaScore

Opening slightly lower than expected opening slightly bigger than last year’s Fist Fight which opened with $12.2m taking $32.18m

Since Warner Bros incorporated New Line Cinema within the studio in 2010 they have had the biggest success with horrors The Conjuring franchise and R-rated comedies. Earlier this year Game Night performed well opening with $17m takin $69m and Life of the Party opened with $17.88m taking $52m; in 2011 Horrible Bosses opened with $28.3m taking $117.5m (ignoring the terrible sequel); We’re the Millers opened with $26.4m taking $150.39m; How to be Single opened with $17.87m taking $46.8m and Central Intelligence opened with $35.35m taking $127.4m. Also having moderate with Gong in Style, Fist Fight, Me Before You, Keanu. Valentine’s Day and New Year’s Eve.

Also had many misses including The House, Vacation, Hall Pass, Hot Pursuit, Dumb and Dumber To and the already mentioned Horrible Bosses 2

Opened internationally with $1.4m from seven territories expanding over the next few weeks internationally

  • Superfly – Sony Pictures

Opened with $6.87m; received 53% Rotten Tomatoes score and B+ CinemaScore

The remake of the 1972 blaxploitation film failed to find an audience and is unlikely to last ling in cinemas while having little interest internationally.

  • Solo: A Star Wars Story – Disney

Drops 36.5% in its fourth weekend taking $10.10m and $193.97m; #254 biggest film in the US

After 24 days Solo has taken-195.56% The Last Jedi, -146.36% Rogue One, -319.44% The Force Awakens, -53.26% Revenge of the Sith, -31.66% Attack of the Clones and – 53.26% Phantom Menace.

Star Wars US BO June 19

Solo continues to hold slightly less to last year’s Justice League which took $9.66m in its third weekend taking $212.12m and $229.2m total; Solo should cross $200m barrier next weekend ending with about $215m.  

Solo took $5.2m internationally with the total of $146.7m and globally total of $339.5m; currently #364 biggest film globally and Disney’s 69th biggest film globally of 115 released since 1988 overtaking 1988’s Who Framed Roger Rabbit $329.8m but won’t managed to match Tron Legacy’s $400m.  

  • Deadpool 2 – 20th Century Fox

Drops 38.6% in its fifth weekend taking $8.68m and $294.56m (#92 biggest film in the US)

Deadpool 2 holding similar to the first film which took $16.72m in its fourth weekend taking 10% less than Deadpool’s $311,484,061;

X-Men US BO June 19

Deadpool went on to take $363.07m Deadpool 2 should take about $320m which is far more than many people thought when 20th Century Fox brought forward its release by 2 weeks to open the week before Solo.

Deadpool 2 is 20th Century Fox’s ninth biggest film in the US and will overtake Home Alone, Star Wars: Episode II – Attack of the Clones, Independence Day and Star Wars shortly.

The 11 Marvel X-Men film has taken over $2.32bn at the box office over the last 18 years in the US and almost $5.65bn globally.

Deadpool 2 took $9.8m internationally and $394.9m total and $689.69m globally; #107 biggest film overtaking Doctor Strange and shortly The Amazing Spider-Man 2 and Captain America: The Winter Soldier.

  • Avengers: Infinity War – Disney

Drops 24.8% in its eighth weekend taking $5.44m and $664.36m

In 2015 Avengers: Age of Ultron was the fourth biggest film globally taking $1.4bn behind Furious 7 $1.51bn, Jurassic World $1.67bn and Star Wars: The Force Awakens $2.06bn while Marvel’s The Avengers was the biggest film globally in 2012 taking $1.9bn Avengers: Infinity War is expected to be the biggest film globally of 2018.

The 18 Marvel Cinematic Universe films have taken $6.63bn in the US and $16.87bn

Infinity War took $3.1m internationally ($373.4m the third biggest Hollywood release in China) taking $1.355bn and $2.02bn worldwide. The fourth film to take over $2bn worldwide when the film opened five weeks ago having the biggest ever global opening many were saying it could overtake Avatar but instead had staggered past $2bn rather than cantered past.

UK Box Office Predictions

UK BO JUne 26th preds

Overestimated the drops last weekend highlighting that distributors run scared of the World Cup but the first game to have a 15m+ audience was Monday’s England match. All other games not featuring England in the group and second round stage will likely get an audience similar to Britain’s Got Talent. Love Island probably being more of an issue than the World Cup as it gets a daily audience of over 2.5m and those are mostly the 16-34 audience that would be going to see these summer movies.

Ocean’s Eight opened on Monday to give it a7 day opening as I have said many times before extended openings rarely increase the films box office but just shares it out across more days as films like The Huntsman, Paper Town, The Conjuring 2, Warcraft, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2 and Eddie the Eagle have done. The only films that do get a boost are films like Spectre and Black Panther that open over school holidays.

The Huntsman took 48% of its £3,032,962 opening weekend from previews (£1,453,329)

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2 took 58% of its £3,495,445 from previews (£1,601,790)

Warcraft: The Beginning took 60% of its £3,623,725 from previews (£2,171,126)

Eddie the Eagle took 45.5% of its £2,834,785 from previews (£1,289,216)

Paper Towns took 64.1% of its £2,072,789 from previews (£1,328,805)

All of those films opened during school holidays which helped boost their weekday box office with GSCE’s over this week that might help Ocean’s Eight (I saw Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade at the Empire Leicester Square after one of my GCSE’s).

Its 14 years ago since Ocean’s Thirteen opened with £3,021,302 (£4,588,789) and Ocean’s Twelve opened with £3,394,100 (£5,527,123) two years earlier and Ocean’s Eleven opened with £5,095,062 (£9,109,353) in 2002. (Their inflation inflated opening in brackets.).

In the US Ocean’s Eight had the biggest opening of the franchise with $41.6m but even with a 7-day opening, it’s unlikely to match Ocean’s Eleven £5,095,062 instead about £4.5m taking about 45% £1.8m+ from Mon-Thurs.

Oceans 11 UK BO june 12

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom likely to drop 50%+ in its third weekend taking £3.5m+ compared to Jurassic World dropped 48% in 2015 taking £5,776,475 behind #1 Minions £11,558,946 taking £48,901,995 77% of its final box office of £63,674,773.

Hereditary should drop about 45% taking £1m+

England play their second match against Panama on Sunday lunchtime which after England’s last-minute win on Monday will likely get a big audience of 10m+ 16-34 males; this will also see Solo: A Star Wars Story and Deadpool 2 drop similar 50%+.

Opening in the UK

  • Overboard – Vertigo

Romantic comedy starring Eugenio Derbez, Anna Faris, Eva Longoria, John Hannah, and Swoosie Kurtz and directed by Rob Greenberg; the remake of the 1987 film of the same name starring Goldie Hawn and Kurt Russell but with the roles reversed.

Anna Faris had moderate success about a decade ago starring in films like Scary Movie 4 and The House Bunny but more recently better known for TV comedy Mom on ITV2.

Overboard opened in the UK on 10th June 1988 over the years since became a success on home video 

Overboard might generate some interest but unlikely to be anywhere nearly as well as the UK.

Overboard opened May 4th in the US receiving mixed reviews with $14.71m taking $48.04m with trailers playing with I Feel Pretty and Life of the Party Vertigo will be hoping to spark up some interest targetting female audiences as counter-programming for the World Cup.

Opening in the US

  • Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom – Universal Pictures

The fifth instalment of the Jurassic Park film series and sequel to 2015’s Jurassic World starring Chris Pratt, Bryce Dallas Howard, B. D. Wong, James Cromwell, Geraldine Chaplin, Toby Jones, Rafe Spall, Jeff Goldblum and directed by J. A. Bayona.

In July 2015 it was announced it would be released June 22nd, 2018 a month later was announced the UK release would be two weeks before on June 8th to open ahead of the World Cup,

Globally marketing for the film started in May in Spain the home of director J. A. Bayona social media reaction was very positive, but this is always taken with a pinch of salt as premiere audiences are always hyped up see Justice League reaction and Spain is the home of its director.

The film has a $185m promo campaign twice the size of 2015’s Jurassic World and bigger than Avengers: Infinity War $150m+, Spider-Man: Homecoming $140m and Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 2 $80m. The Jurassic Park brand is still huge 25 years after the original film was released with merchandising sales still very strong.

The first trailer was released in December was viewed 64 million timed in its first 24 hours (18th most watched trailer in the first 24 hours Avengers: Infinity War trailer was released the week before was seen by 230m in first 24 hours and the second in March 179m) the second was Super bowl spot which was the most viewed seen 3.56m times in the first 12 hours (69,000 times on YouTube and 2.7 million times on Facebook) Mission Impossible: Fallout was second with 2.09 million views.

Both trailers received a mixed reaction from fans as many felt it looked like it was taking the action from the acts of the film, but writer Colin Trevorrow said it came from the first 57 minutes of the film describing the film as “The Impossible meets The Orphanage with dinosaurs.” The final trailer released in April seemed to be much more revealing with many feeling it felt far too similar to The Lost World as the first film felt to the original film. As the trailers for Jurassic World, the final trailer for Fallen Kingdom includes scenes from the end of the film.

Nostalgia for Jurassic Park with Jurassic World opening 22 years to the day of the original US release date helped it open with $208.8m taking $652.27m and was the second biggest film of 2015 in the US and globally (taking $1.67bn) after Star Wars: The Force Awakens.

Early tracking for Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom was looking at an opening of $140m but after receiving mixed reviewed 60% Rotten Tomatoes and opening the week after The Incredibles 2 it is likely to open much lower $110m+.

After The Incredibles 2 opened with $183m last weekend if it holds similar to Finding Dory in its second weekend should take about $100m which could squeeze Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom box office, could both films take over $100m at the box office or will its mixed reviews cut its opening?

Despite mixed reviews Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom only dropped 50% in its second weekend despite the World Cup but with Solo and Deadpool 2 almost played out and no major releases it was a different situation in the UK.

Universal Pictures announced June 11th, 2021 release date for Jurassic World 3 which will be exactly 28 years to the day Jurassic World opened in the US.